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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-

SystemSystem Posts: 11,706
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-MORI

SNP at 52% in Scotland according to new Ipsos-MORI poll

SNP 52%
LAB 23%
CON 10%
GRN 6%
LD 6%

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,462
    But I thought Scotland rejected Independence!
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How many seats would Labour lose with these figures?
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    EICIPM

    Don't think so!
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Using Baxter Labour will be left with 4 seats: Gordon, Ian Davidson, Tom Clarke and Willie Bain
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That is an incredible poll. I chose the word carefully.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    An extraordinary poll - it looks as if the referendum result was an outlier!:)
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    But I thought Scotland rejected Independence!

    In favour of something better. All-but-independence, paid for by someone else.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    AndyJS said:

    How many seats would Labour lose with these figures?

    All except Glasgow North-East
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited October 2014
    http://may2015.com/seats/ is a very nice seat predictor for Scotland

    Using their Strong Transition model the LDs hold Orkney, and Labour hold Kirkcaldy [but Brown's surely standing down], Glasgow NE and Coatbridge.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    UKIP 2% !!!!

    Either the poll is wrong, or the Scots are!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,901
    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    So Ed's lost Scotland, given up on Southern England and has UKIP snapping at his heels in the 'Strongholds' (Ha ha ha) of Rotherham and Heywood.

    What does Dan Hodges think?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited October 2014
    Oh dear – has Ed been McBaxtered north of the border yet..?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    One really does feel it is time that Scotland went, and paid for, its own way!
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,843
    Off-topic and about the US rather than here, but interesting I think:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

    Argues that the belief that the largest mass of voters have moderate views is an artefact of defining politics on a left-right scale, and actually voters frequently have extreme views on individual issues, only looking moderate when you average over those issues.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Only if he wins. Which is not the most likely outcome
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Golly, another bit of good news for EdM, not. Unless this is a very weird outlier, it's dreadful for SLab.
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    And some were worried about independence robbing Labour of their 41 seats! Scotland could be a disaster for Labour, not least because the difference between red and blue seats might be less than 20.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,006
    Makes sense to me... The Scottish people weren't quite convinced about independence, but wants the party that sticks up for it most in charge

    If you're going to have devolved power you want the SNP in charge else you may as well just have Westminster
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,018
    Love the picture of Ed! In the name of Allah, just go.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    As I posted earlier Ipsos Mori had SNP 2% ahead of Labour six months before the 2010 election, they ended up 22% behind.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The 2010 result was:

    Lab 42%, SNP 19.9%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_results_in_Scotland#Overall_results
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Is this the official end of Labour's 35% strategy. Their only strategy for 4 years and it's now shown to be rubbish.

    I am not convinced 35% would ever have given Labour a majority, but minus Scotland, no chance.

    The NHS theme blew out in H&M. Will the Mansion Tax scupper them in the lefty trendy parts of London too? Plus REd didn't feel immigration or the economy were important enough to mention in his big speech, so where exactly does this leave Labour?
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Will Labour continue to hurt themselves in England by opposing English devolution even when they don't get a benefit from it?
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    Put the numbers into Electoral Calculus - you do for every other poll.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    ROFL,LMFAO,WMTITA!!!! SNP doing a UKIP in Scotland and blowing the 2015 GE up in the air
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Plato said:

    Golly, another bit of good news for EdM, not. Unless this is a very weird outlier, it's dreadful for SLab.

    I think they call this a 'black haggis' event. ; )
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I seem to remember predicting that the SNP would do well after an IndyRef No result, as a consolation prize for 'standing up for Scotland'. Still, I hadn't expected them to be doing quite this well, but who could have predicted the degree of shambles in Scottish Labour which we are currently seeing?

    Thanks BTW to antifrank for emerging from his period of purdah to give us the heads-up on the superb odds which were available on the SNP back in August. I'd already backed the SNP to some extent but that prompted me to go in further on some of the more speculative seats at long odds. They are not looking such long-shots now.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    ROFL,LMFAO,WMTITA!!!! SNP doing a UKIP in Scotland and blowing the 2015 GE up in the air
    This looks far and away above anything UKIP are achieving in England to be perfectly honest.

    Anyway I'm glad my betting position is net positive for this outcome.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    They have, which is why I would treat this poll with caution in the continued aftermath of the Indy Referendum. Lets see what the polls say in 4/5 months time, especially after the dust has settled from the Nicola Sturgeon Coronation and Scottish Labour have elected their new Leader. Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader, and it might just give Jim Murphy the big boost he needs now that Unite have made it clear that they intend to campaign to make sure the right man doesn't get the job....
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    But I thought Scotland rejected Independence!

  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    ROFL,LMFAO,WMTITA!!!! SNP doing a UKIP in Scotland and blowing the 2015 GE up in the air
    This looks far and away above anything UKIP are achieving in England to be perfectly honest.

    Anyway I'm glad my betting position is net positive for this outcome.
    And when you add in the touching naive belief that Slab can turn this around with either a TU stitch up candidate or Jim Murphy it really does make the mind boggle at the level of incompetence in Labour under Miliband's tutelage.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,006
    Not sure if this is a wind up, but...

    Richard Osman (@richardosman)
    30/10/2014 14:16
    Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Artist said:

    As I posted earlier Ipsos Mori had SNP 2% ahead of Labour six months before the 2010 election, they ended up 22% behind.

    If it is the same error level as then the SNP will still be ahead by 5 points.

    And it's Miliband, not Brown, standing for Westminster this time.

    His personal approval ratings in Scotland are worse then Cameron's. When was the last time a Labour leader had worse ratings than a Tory one in Scotland?

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    fitalass said:

    Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader

    It will, but will they draw the correct conclusion from it? There will certainly be many in the party who will be arguing that it shows Scottish Labour should move firmly leftwards.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited October 2014
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    Yes. A poll is a prediction, you just Baxter it. Surely you know that?

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Note that it's not just Labour who are in meltdown. The Conservatives (and of course the Lib Dems) are too.

    The Greens and the SNP together are taking 58% of this vote. That's more than a reversal of the referendum result for the Yessers.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    29% lead. After a vote against independence? Yes well thats believable.
    ''The 1026 participants were surveyed between October 22 and 29 as the row broke over leadership of the Scottish Labour party. ''
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,728
    Millsy said:

    And some were worried about independence robbing Labour of their 41 seats! Scotland could be a disaster for Labour, not least because the difference between red and blue seats might be less than 20.

    What's the SNP stance on a coalition? With Labour, Labour/LibDem, Tory/LibDem?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So what have PC done wrong ? The only nationalist party doing crap.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    fitalass said:

    They have, which is why I would treat this poll with caution in the continued aftermath of the Indy Referendum. Lets see what the polls say in 4/5 months time, especially after the dust has settled from the Nicola Sturgeon Coronation and Scottish Labour have elected their new Leader. Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader, and it might just give Jim Murphy the big boost he needs now that Unite have made it clear that they intend to campaign to make sure the right man doesn't get the job....

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    But I thought Scotland rejected Independence!

    What on earth makes you think that Murphy would achieve anything other than convince the proles in Scotland that Labour are Conservative-lite. I'm a diehard Tory voter and even I know it.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    *wipes tea from screen*
    SimonStClare said:

    Plato said:

    Golly, another bit of good news for EdM, not. Unless this is a very weird outlier, it's dreadful for SLab.

    I think they call this a 'black haggis' event. ; )
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    Not sure if this is a wind up, but...

    Richard Osman (@richardosman)
    30/10/2014 14:16
    Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015

    It sounds like rather a good joke.

    Since Pointless is played in pairs, what would be the pairings?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    Will Labour continue to hurt themselves in England by opposing English devolution even when they don't get a benefit from it?

    It's madness to think that the Welsh and English electorates won't factor this in and think 'we need people in government who will look after our interests.'
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    "Wait for a Scotland specific poll" I said, "It'll put the sub-samples in perspective" I said, "You're all getting too excited" I said

    I know fuck all.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Does anyone really think Murphy is the answer to SLAB's problems apart from the Tories?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    And betting sites are blocked at work. Is Shadsy reacting to this poll?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Ishmael_X said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    Yes. A poll is a prediction, you just Baxter it. Surely you know that?

    Bigjohnowls may never Baxter again after a shock like this:)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,462
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Not sure if this is a wind up, but...

    Richard Osman (@richardosman)
    30/10/2014 14:16
    Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015

    It sounds like rather a good joke.

    Since Pointless is played in pairs, what would be the pairings?
    Cameron with Farage
    Miliband with Clegg

    :)
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alistair said:

    And betting sites are blocked at work. Is Shadsy reacting to this poll?

    Many of the SNP prices shortened sharply yesterday.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited October 2014
    Lets see:

    £10 at 50-1 on SNP Dunbartonshire East
    £200 Labour 1-2
    £100 4-6 SNP +6.5
    £10 SNP Glasgow East 33-1
    £200 Labour 1-5 Glasgow East
    £5 12-1 Edinburgh North and Leith.

    Lose £400,

    Win £956 if this transpires.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,006
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Not sure if this is a wind up, but...

    Richard Osman (@richardosman)
    30/10/2014 14:16
    Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015

    It sounds like rather a good joke.

    Since Pointless is played in pairs, what would be the pairings?
    Yes, was thinking that... It's four pairs isn't it? So maybe they can bring a mate each!
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,901
    Ishmael_X said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    Yes. A poll is a prediction, you just Baxter it. Surely you know that?

    Baxter?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    I fail to see how Murphy is going to solve anything, when he embodies the two things that have pushed so many working-class Labour voters to the SNP: right-wing Tory policies and a total lack of personal charm/charisma.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Given I really rate Jim Murphy, logically I'd be against his appointment - but he's the sort SLab needs IMO.

    Under Ms Sturgeon, I presume the SNP will become more Leftish and lose Tartan Tories over time.

    Mr Murphy could do a Tony and keep these voters and remain Labourite.
    fitalass said:

    They have, which is why I would treat this poll with caution in the continued aftermath of the Indy Referendum. Lets see what the polls say in 4/5 months time, especially after the dust has settled from the Nicola Sturgeon Coronation and Scottish Labour have elected their new Leader. Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader, and it might just give Jim Murphy the big boost he needs now that Unite have made it clear that they intend to campaign to make sure the right man doesn't get the job....

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    But I thought Scotland rejected Independence!

  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    felix said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.

    Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.

    Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?

    Yes. A poll is a prediction, you just Baxter it. Surely you know that?

    Bigjohnowls may never Baxter again after a shock like this:)
    It's odd that he hasn't Baxtered this poll, unlike every other.

    Do you think he's OK?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    I think the only hope now is for Miliband to head up to Glasgow to make one of his big set-pieces and forget to mention Scotland.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Lets see:

    £100 4-6 SNP +6.5

    When did you get that one on? That's less a terrific value bet and more a money purchase.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Imagine if Oil had been $100 a barrel.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited October 2014
    I'm also glad I've (largely) covered Con Most seats, Labour Most votes as I think this brings about that possibility.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Second Indy referendum by 2020?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,955


    logical_song said:

    Millsy said:

    And some were worried about independence robbing Labour of their 41 seats! Scotland could be a disaster for Labour, not least because the difference between red and blue seats might be less than 20.

    What's the SNP stance on a coalition? With Labour, Labour/LibDem, Tory/LibDem?
    Probably not to bother, with the awful examples of the LDs in both Holyrood and Westminster. Minority government on a supply basis. Unless something very very tasty was on offer, and I'm not thinking of ministerial cars.

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    logical_song said:


    What's the SNP stance on a coalition? With Labour, Labour/LibDem, Tory/LibDem?

    Coalition?

    The English parties would form one to stop them getting their own way. They would have to.

    Surely, the SNP would want a pact with the English ruling party to just stay out of each other's way and devolve as much as possible?

    The least friendly devolvers are Labour.

    That leaves the Tories, unless UKIP suddenly wipe Labour out in England.




  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Although there's probably a specific Scottish element (namely how Labour have got themselves into such a mess over further devolution), I think most of this is accounted for by the same things that are dooming Labour elsewhere in the UK. Ed Miliband's complete failure to inspire people, and the fact "core" Labour voters are not going to vote for cuts that will hit them. The only difference is that the SNP/Nicola Sturgeon are much more talented than any opponents Labour face elsewhere in the UK, so the problems are more exaggerated there.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,405
    isam said:

    Makes sense to me... The Scottish people weren't quite convinced about independence, but wants the party that sticks up for it most in charge

    If you're going to have devolved power you want the SNP in charge else you may as well just have Westminster

    Yes and with luck deliver a Cons govt so your chances of actually getting it are smaller.

    Win-win!
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,955
    felix said:

    It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)

    Not if Scotland remains in the EU when England doesn't. Iain Macwhirter has a very interesting article in the Herald today on the implications of Brexit not just for Scotland but also for NI - who effectively can secede to Ireland in the event of Brexit being a Yes to leave the EU.

  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Scot Labour in trouble from as Birnam wood do come to Dunsinane:

    Mr Miliband, there is a bottle of whisky and a revolver on the table.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    From last thread.......

    Moses_ said:
    » show previous quotes
    Nick, as you may remember or perhaps not, we have crossed swords in the past in many ways but i always have appreciated your open approach. To be on a site like this and be exposed to whatever comes your way is unusual and not many on your side would do this so you have my absolute respect for that whatever your views.

    In saying that do you really seriously believe what you just put there? Burnham? NHS.

    * shakes head*

    DUEMA
    ABL
    Don't Unseat Ed Miliband Association? (not sure what ABL is!)

    A belated welcome back, Moses! :)


    Thanks Sunil.

    My trademark if you remember " ALB = Anyone but Labour *. "


    * with apologies to NPXMP
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lets see:

    £100 4-6 SNP +6.5

    When did you get that one on? That's less a terrific value bet and more a money purchase.
    16th July, also have £20 on at 4-5 from last year and this one:

    £ 10.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting SW-|Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross SNP 6/1
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I seem to remember predicting that the SNP would do well after an IndyRef No result, as a consolation prize for 'standing up for Scotland'. Still, I hadn't expected them to be doing quite this well, but who could have predicted the degree of shambles in Scottish Labour which we are currently seeing?

    Thanks BTW to antifrank for emerging from his period of purdah to give us the heads-up on the superb odds which were available on the SNP back in August. I'd already backed the SNP to some extent but that prompted me to go in further on some of the more speculative seats at long odds. They are not looking such long-shots now.

    I do think that was my best post. It was also my simplest. There's a lesson there.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Danny565 said:

    Although there's probably a specific Scottish element (namely how Labour have got themselves into such a mess over further devolution), I think most of this is accounted for by the same things that are dooming Labour elsewhere in the UK. Ed Miliband's complete failure to inspire people, and the fact "core" Labour voters are not going to vote for cuts that will hit them. The only difference is that the SNP/Nicola Sturgeon are much more talented than any opponents Labour face elsewhere in the UK, so the problems are more exaggerated there.

    You are sadly correct overall - there are probably more Scots who think everyone owes them a living than in England hence there is a kind of magnifier effect. As I said earlier time for the grafters to head south and leave them to it.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited October 2014
    Richard, we have just had a week of very negative briefing and counter briefing against various figures in the Scottish Labour party, and of course Ed Miliband. If Unite and their supporters within the Labour party continue to make this Scottish Labour Leadership contest all about a negative vendetta against Murphy instead of a positive pre GE campaign for Scottish Labour, then its going to further damage Ed Miliband's Leadership and the UK Labour brand up here in Scotland as well.

    With the SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon snapping at their heels to become the main party of the left in Scotland, its make your mind up time for the Labour party and one of their biggest Union donors. Its time to either shut up and put the Labour party first as I suspect Jim Murphy has decided to do, or its going Falkirk/Lab/Unite all over again. Only this time, on a bigger scale right before that all important GE, and no one is going to come out looking like a winner if that happens. And the last thing the Scottish Labour party should do right now is try to move even more leftward than the SNP are going to do under Sturgeon.
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    fitalass said:

    Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader

    It will, but will they draw the correct conclusion from it? There will certainly be many in the party who will be arguing that it shows Scottish Labour should move firmly leftwards.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ha!

    I honestly can't get my head around EdM being less popular in Scotland than AN Other Tory.

    It's hilariously bad. IIRC @Sean_Fear‌ noted some bizarrely Truth Stranger Than Fiction polling changes on FPT - this is my #1.
    felix said:

    I think the only hope now is for Miliband to head up to Glasgow to make one of his big set-pieces and forget to mention Scotland.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Carnyx said:

    felix said:

    It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)

    Not if Scotland remains in the EU when England doesn't. Iain Macwhirter has a very interesting article in the Herald today on the implications of Brexit not just for Scotland but also for NI - who effectively can secede to Ireland in the event of Brexit being a Yes to leave the EU.

    If England diversifies its trading relationships and replaces EU membership with FTAs with the EU, NAFTA, Australia, Japan, India and Brazil, then the growth will all be in England. It will be like Black Wednesday all over again: what the great and good thought would be a disaster turns out to be the start of a huge boom.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Update

    oh dear... oops!

    ABL
    Anyone but Labour.

    of course

    Blame the spell checker , weather or anyone else but me.

  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    SeanT said:

    If repeated at the GE (only 7 months away) how much does this effectively wipe out Labour's electoral advantage under FPTP? A number of the seats Labour wins with relatively few votes are in Scotland.

    Add that in to Ed's decline at Westminster and it looks very grim for the Left.

    It also accords with what many on here predicted pre-indyref: if Salmond lost, the Scots would give him a consolation prize.

    I can now envisage a GE result like this Tories 33, Labour 29, UKIP, 16, Greens and LD on 8, Nats on 5 (?), with much of the built-in bias to Labour removed.

    A result which is pretty much unBaxterable, though for fun it produces:

    C 308
    L 293
    LD 20
    UKIP 0
    Nats 10

    A Tory plurality.

    In reality, with UKIP getting (surely) 5-10 seats, the Nats taking at least 20 off Labour, I reckon Cameron might edge a small majority.

    The loss of Scotland is disastrous for Labour. Heh.

    Imagine UKIP wiping Labour out in the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner vote, and then a really dismal Rochester outcome - say third on about 10-15%

    It's conceivable that Labour's vote will split in the way the Lib Dems has.

    Some go to UKIP (wwc) , some go to Respect (muslim), some go to Plaid (welsh) and some go to the left (green) and some go to the only place that is left which isn't "racist" or "muslim" or "too liberal/white" - the Tories.

    It's conceivable.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Carnyx said:

    felix said:

    It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)

    Not if Scotland remains in the EU when England doesn't. Iain Macwhirter has a very interesting article in the Herald today on the implications of Brexit not just for Scotland but also for NI - who effectively can secede to Ireland in the event of Brexit being a Yes to leave the EU.

    I love the notion of NI opting for unifiication in order to STAY in the EU. to be serious rUK is unlikely to go for exit despite the efforts of the EU to provoke.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/PUBLIC SPOM Wave 22 Topline for STV - final - 30 10 14 - GE ONLY.pdf

    limited information
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited October 2014
    Putting this into electoral calculus:

    Con 0
    Lab 4
    Lib Dems 1
    SNP 54

    EDIT: Tories get 0, not 1.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Can someone remind me how the Cons are doing in the polls?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Socrates said:

    Putting this into electoral calculus:

    Con 1
    Lab 4
    Lib Dems 1
    SNP 54

    That'd be a 19th century Ireland effect, and almost certainly make the SNP the 3rd biggest party.

    If there are two or three more similar polls, almost impossible to exlude the SNP from the debates, on the same grounds as the Lib Dems i.e. influence in parliament after the event.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    JWisemann said:

    Can someone remind me how the Cons are doing in the polls?

    Doesn't matter in Scotland.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So Labour on course for about 200 seats nationally ?

    Will Ed score sub Foot ?
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited October 2014
    SeanT said:

    Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.

    God's sense of political irony is undimmed.

    Imagine if, in the election after next, we got a Conservative government with a UKIP opposition!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    As a PB Tory, that 10% figure depresses me.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Electoral calculus needs a predict England bit.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Will Ed score sub Foot ?

    If there was any justice..

    Foot was a towering colossus compared to the vacuum of Ed
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I recall a poll before GE 2010 that had the Tories at 52% ....... as Antifrank says. this poll is incredible in the same way as the 2010 poll was...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: He's on the menu.

    RT @Conorpope: Ed Miliband is at the Scottish Labour Party annual dinner tonight. http://t.co/9iosyM1Bnb
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,955
    felix said:

    Carnyx said:

    felix said:

    It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)

    Not if Scotland remains in the EU when England doesn't. Iain Macwhirter has a very interesting article in the Herald today on the implications of Brexit not just for Scotland but also for NI - who effectively can secede to Ireland in the event of Brexit being a Yes to leave the EU.

    I love the notion of NI opting for unifiication in order to STAY in the EU. to be serious rUK is unlikely to go for exit despite the efforts of the EU to provoke.
    Mr Macwhirter's point was not so much that they would - but that they could, in a way which Mr Cameron has just refused the Scots (in the person of Ms Sturgeon). The inconsistencies of the Blair settlement are really beginning to show up ...

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351

    EdM may as well support EVEL ... he's got nothing to lose anymore.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    RobD said:

    As a PB Tory, that 10% figure depresses me.

    I can't think of any reasons why the Tories would be down in Scotland post referendum.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    JWisemann said:

    Can someone remind me how the Cons are doing in the polls?

    With remarkable stability given the task Labour left them with. They are within spitting distance of Labour as the latter melts down all over the place.
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    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    edited October 2014
    I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Imagine being a Lib Dem... nationally.
    RobD said:

    As a PB Tory, that 10% figure depresses me.

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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.

    God's sense of political irony is undimmed.

    Imagine if, in the election after next, we got a Conservative government with a UKIP opposition!
    I think that falls under the header of being "spoilt for choice"
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.

    God's sense of political irony is undimmed.

    Labour dying at the hand of the son of an immigrant - how apt.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Labour. Lol. EdM must go.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: He's on the menu.

    RT @Conorpope: Ed Miliband is at the Scottish Labour Party annual dinner tonight. http://t.co/9iosyM1Bnb

    His intellectual superiority will win over those jittery Scottish Labourites.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,462
    SeanT said:

    , the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill,

    Hello Sean T!

    :)
This discussion has been closed.