Argues that the belief that the largest mass of voters have moderate views is an artefact of defining politics on a left-right scale, and actually voters frequently have extreme views on individual issues, only looking moderate when you average over those issues.
And some were worried about independence robbing Labour of their 41 seats! Scotland could be a disaster for Labour, not least because the difference between red and blue seats might be less than 20.
Is this the official end of Labour's 35% strategy. Their only strategy for 4 years and it's now shown to be rubbish.
I am not convinced 35% would ever have given Labour a majority, but minus Scotland, no chance.
The NHS theme blew out in H&M. Will the Mansion Tax scupper them in the lefty trendy parts of London too? Plus REd didn't feel immigration or the economy were important enough to mention in his big speech, so where exactly does this leave Labour?
I seem to remember predicting that the SNP would do well after an IndyRef No result, as a consolation prize for 'standing up for Scotland'. Still, I hadn't expected them to be doing quite this well, but who could have predicted the degree of shambles in Scottish Labour which we are currently seeing?
Thanks BTW to antifrank for emerging from his period of purdah to give us the heads-up on the superb odds which were available on the SNP back in August. I'd already backed the SNP to some extent but that prompted me to go in further on some of the more speculative seats at long odds. They are not looking such long-shots now.
They have, which is why I would treat this poll with caution in the continued aftermath of the Indy Referendum. Lets see what the polls say in 4/5 months time, especially after the dust has settled from the Nicola Sturgeon Coronation and Scottish Labour have elected their new Leader. Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader, and it might just give Jim Murphy the big boost he needs now that Unite have made it clear that they intend to campaign to make sure the right man doesn't get the job....
Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.
Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.
Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?
ROFL,LMFAO,WMTITA!!!! SNP doing a UKIP in Scotland and blowing the 2015 GE up in the air
This looks far and away above anything UKIP are achieving in England to be perfectly honest.
Anyway I'm glad my betting position is net positive for this outcome.
And when you add in the touching naive belief that Slab can turn this around with either a TU stitch up candidate or Jim Murphy it really does make the mind boggle at the level of incompetence in Labour under Miliband's tutelage.
Richard Osman (@richardosman) 30/10/2014 14:16 Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015
As I posted earlier Ipsos Mori had SNP 2% ahead of Labour six months before the 2010 election, they ended up 22% behind.
If it is the same error level as then the SNP will still be ahead by 5 points.
And it's Miliband, not Brown, standing for Westminster this time.
His personal approval ratings in Scotland are worse then Cameron's. When was the last time a Labour leader had worse ratings than a Tory one in Scotland?
Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader
It will, but will they draw the correct conclusion from it? There will certainly be many in the party who will be arguing that it shows Scottish Labour should move firmly leftwards.
29% lead. After a vote against independence? Yes well thats believable. ''The 1026 participants were surveyed between October 22 and 29 as the row broke over leadership of the Scottish Labour party. ''
And some were worried about independence robbing Labour of their 41 seats! Scotland could be a disaster for Labour, not least because the difference between red and blue seats might be less than 20.
What's the SNP stance on a coalition? With Labour, Labour/LibDem, Tory/LibDem?
They have, which is why I would treat this poll with caution in the continued aftermath of the Indy Referendum. Lets see what the polls say in 4/5 months time, especially after the dust has settled from the Nicola Sturgeon Coronation and Scottish Labour have elected their new Leader. Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader, and it might just give Jim Murphy the big boost he needs now that Unite have made it clear that they intend to campaign to make sure the right man doesn't get the job....
What on earth makes you think that Murphy would achieve anything other than convince the proles in Scotland that Labour are Conservative-lite. I'm a diehard Tory voter and even I know it.
Richard Osman (@richardosman) 30/10/2014 14:16 Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015
It sounds like rather a good joke.
Since Pointless is played in pairs, what would be the pairings?
Will Labour continue to hurt themselves in England by opposing English devolution even when they don't get a benefit from it?
It's madness to think that the Welsh and English electorates won't factor this in and think 'we need people in government who will look after our interests.'
Richard Osman (@richardosman) 30/10/2014 14:16 Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015
It sounds like rather a good joke.
Since Pointless is played in pairs, what would be the pairings?
£10 at 50-1 on SNP Dunbartonshire East £200 Labour 1-2 £100 4-6 SNP +6.5 £10 SNP Glasgow East 33-1 £200 Labour 1-5 Glasgow East £5 12-1 Edinburgh North and Leith.
Richard Osman (@richardosman) 30/10/2014 14:16 Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015
It sounds like rather a good joke.
Since Pointless is played in pairs, what would be the pairings?
Yes, was thinking that... It's four pairs isn't it? So maybe they can bring a mate each!
Pre Murphy Scottish Polls are pretty much irrelevant.
Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.
Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?
I fail to see how Murphy is going to solve anything, when he embodies the two things that have pushed so many working-class Labour voters to the SNP: right-wing Tory policies and a total lack of personal charm/charisma.
They have, which is why I would treat this poll with caution in the continued aftermath of the Indy Referendum. Lets see what the polls say in 4/5 months time, especially after the dust has settled from the Nicola Sturgeon Coronation and Scottish Labour have elected their new Leader. Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader, and it might just give Jim Murphy the big boost he needs now that Unite have made it clear that they intend to campaign to make sure the right man doesn't get the job....
And some were worried about independence robbing Labour of their 41 seats! Scotland could be a disaster for Labour, not least because the difference between red and blue seats might be less than 20.
What's the SNP stance on a coalition? With Labour, Labour/LibDem, Tory/LibDem?
Probably not to bother, with the awful examples of the LDs in both Holyrood and Westminster. Minority government on a supply basis. Unless something very very tasty was on offer, and I'm not thinking of ministerial cars.
Although there's probably a specific Scottish element (namely how Labour have got themselves into such a mess over further devolution), I think most of this is accounted for by the same things that are dooming Labour elsewhere in the UK. Ed Miliband's complete failure to inspire people, and the fact "core" Labour voters are not going to vote for cuts that will hit them. The only difference is that the SNP/Nicola Sturgeon are much more talented than any opponents Labour face elsewhere in the UK, so the problems are more exaggerated there.
It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)
Not if Scotland remains in the EU when England doesn't. Iain Macwhirter has a very interesting article in the Herald today on the implications of Brexit not just for Scotland but also for NI - who effectively can secede to Ireland in the event of Brexit being a Yes to leave the EU.
Moses_ said: » show previous quotes Nick, as you may remember or perhaps not, we have crossed swords in the past in many ways but i always have appreciated your open approach. To be on a site like this and be exposed to whatever comes your way is unusual and not many on your side would do this so you have my absolute respect for that whatever your views.
In saying that do you really seriously believe what you just put there? Burnham? NHS.
* shakes head*
DUEMA ABL Don't Unseat Ed Miliband Association? (not sure what ABL is!)
A belated welcome back, Moses!
Thanks Sunil.
My trademark if you remember " ALB = Anyone but Labour *. "
I seem to remember predicting that the SNP would do well after an IndyRef No result, as a consolation prize for 'standing up for Scotland'. Still, I hadn't expected them to be doing quite this well, but who could have predicted the degree of shambles in Scottish Labour which we are currently seeing?
Thanks BTW to antifrank for emerging from his period of purdah to give us the heads-up on the superb odds which were available on the SNP back in August. I'd already backed the SNP to some extent but that prompted me to go in further on some of the more speculative seats at long odds. They are not looking such long-shots now.
I do think that was my best post. It was also my simplest. There's a lesson there.
Although there's probably a specific Scottish element (namely how Labour have got themselves into such a mess over further devolution), I think most of this is accounted for by the same things that are dooming Labour elsewhere in the UK. Ed Miliband's complete failure to inspire people, and the fact "core" Labour voters are not going to vote for cuts that will hit them. The only difference is that the SNP/Nicola Sturgeon are much more talented than any opponents Labour face elsewhere in the UK, so the problems are more exaggerated there.
You are sadly correct overall - there are probably more Scots who think everyone owes them a living than in England hence there is a kind of magnifier effect. As I said earlier time for the grafters to head south and leave them to it.
Richard, we have just had a week of very negative briefing and counter briefing against various figures in the Scottish Labour party, and of course Ed Miliband. If Unite and their supporters within the Labour party continue to make this Scottish Labour Leadership contest all about a negative vendetta against Murphy instead of a positive pre GE campaign for Scottish Labour, then its going to further damage Ed Miliband's Leadership and the UK Labour brand up here in Scotland as well.
With the SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon snapping at their heels to become the main party of the left in Scotland, its make your mind up time for the Labour party and one of their biggest Union donors. Its time to either shut up and put the Labour party first as I suspect Jim Murphy has decided to do, or its going Falkirk/Lab/Unite all over again. Only this time, on a bigger scale right before that all important GE, and no one is going to come out looking like a winner if that happens. And the last thing the Scottish Labour party should do right now is try to move even more leftward than the SNP are going to do under Sturgeon.
Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader
It will, but will they draw the correct conclusion from it? There will certainly be many in the party who will be arguing that it shows Scottish Labour should move firmly leftwards.
It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)
Not if Scotland remains in the EU when England doesn't. Iain Macwhirter has a very interesting article in the Herald today on the implications of Brexit not just for Scotland but also for NI - who effectively can secede to Ireland in the event of Brexit being a Yes to leave the EU.
If England diversifies its trading relationships and replaces EU membership with FTAs with the EU, NAFTA, Australia, Japan, India and Brazil, then the growth will all be in England. It will be like Black Wednesday all over again: what the great and good thought would be a disaster turns out to be the start of a huge boom.
If repeated at the GE (only 7 months away) how much does this effectively wipe out Labour's electoral advantage under FPTP? A number of the seats Labour wins with relatively few votes are in Scotland.
Add that in to Ed's decline at Westminster and it looks very grim for the Left.
It also accords with what many on here predicted pre-indyref: if Salmond lost, the Scots would give him a consolation prize.
I can now envisage a GE result like this Tories 33, Labour 29, UKIP, 16, Greens and LD on 8, Nats on 5 (?), with much of the built-in bias to Labour removed.
A result which is pretty much unBaxterable, though for fun it produces:
C 308 L 293 LD 20 UKIP 0 Nats 10
A Tory plurality.
In reality, with UKIP getting (surely) 5-10 seats, the Nats taking at least 20 off Labour, I reckon Cameron might edge a small majority.
The loss of Scotland is disastrous for Labour. Heh.
Imagine UKIP wiping Labour out in the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner vote, and then a really dismal Rochester outcome - say third on about 10-15%
It's conceivable that Labour's vote will split in the way the Lib Dems has.
Some go to UKIP (wwc) , some go to Respect (muslim), some go to Plaid (welsh) and some go to the left (green) and some go to the only place that is left which isn't "racist" or "muslim" or "too liberal/white" - the Tories.
It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)
Not if Scotland remains in the EU when England doesn't. Iain Macwhirter has a very interesting article in the Herald today on the implications of Brexit not just for Scotland but also for NI - who effectively can secede to Ireland in the event of Brexit being a Yes to leave the EU.
I love the notion of NI opting for unifiication in order to STAY in the EU. to be serious rUK is unlikely to go for exit despite the efforts of the EU to provoke.
That'd be a 19th century Ireland effect, and almost certainly make the SNP the 3rd biggest party.
If there are two or three more similar polls, almost impossible to exlude the SNP from the debates, on the same grounds as the Lib Dems i.e. influence in parliament after the event.
Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
Imagine if, in the election after next, we got a Conservative government with a UKIP opposition!
It's time for anybody with money to head south - this could be boom time for NE England as Scottish money races for safety:)
Not if Scotland remains in the EU when England doesn't. Iain Macwhirter has a very interesting article in the Herald today on the implications of Brexit not just for Scotland but also for NI - who effectively can secede to Ireland in the event of Brexit being a Yes to leave the EU.
I love the notion of NI opting for unifiication in order to STAY in the EU. to be serious rUK is unlikely to go for exit despite the efforts of the EU to provoke.
Mr Macwhirter's point was not so much that they would - but that they could, in a way which Mr Cameron has just refused the Scots (in the person of Ms Sturgeon). The inconsistencies of the Blair settlement are really beginning to show up ...
Can someone remind me how the Cons are doing in the polls?
With remarkable stability given the task Labour left them with. They are within spitting distance of Labour as the latter melts down all over the place.
I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
Imagine if, in the election after next, we got a Conservative government with a UKIP opposition!
I think that falls under the header of being "spoilt for choice"
Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
Labour dying at the hand of the son of an immigrant - how apt.
Comments
Don't think so!
Using their Strong Transition model the LDs hold Orkney, and Labour hold Kirkcaldy [but Brown's surely standing down], Glasgow NE and Coatbridge.
Either the poll is wrong, or the Scots are!
Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.
Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?
What does Dan Hodges think?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html?ref=opinion&_r=1
Argues that the belief that the largest mass of voters have moderate views is an artefact of defining politics on a left-right scale, and actually voters frequently have extreme views on individual issues, only looking moderate when you average over those issues.
If you're going to have devolved power you want the SNP in charge else you may as well just have Westminster
Lab 42%, SNP 19.9%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_results_in_Scotland#Overall_results
I am not convinced 35% would ever have given Labour a majority, but minus Scotland, no chance.
The NHS theme blew out in H&M. Will the Mansion Tax scupper them in the lefty trendy parts of London too? Plus REd didn't feel immigration or the economy were important enough to mention in his big speech, so where exactly does this leave Labour?
Thanks BTW to antifrank for emerging from his period of purdah to give us the heads-up on the superb odds which were available on the SNP back in August. I'd already backed the SNP to some extent but that prompted me to go in further on some of the more speculative seats at long odds. They are not looking such long-shots now.
Anyway I'm glad my betting position is net positive for this outcome.
Richard Osman (@richardosman)
30/10/2014 14:16
Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015
And it's Miliband, not Brown, standing for Westminster this time.
His personal approval ratings in Scotland are worse then Cameron's. When was the last time a Labour leader had worse ratings than a Tory one in Scotland?
The Greens and the SNP together are taking 58% of this vote. That's more than a reversal of the referendum result for the Yessers.
''The 1026 participants were surveyed between October 22 and 29 as the row broke over leadership of the Scottish Labour party. ''
*wipes tea from screen*
Since Pointless is played in pairs, what would be the pairings?
I know fuck all.
Miliband with Clegg
£10 at 50-1 on SNP Dunbartonshire East
£200 Labour 1-2
£100 4-6 SNP +6.5
£10 SNP Glasgow East 33-1
£200 Labour 1-5 Glasgow East
£5 12-1 Edinburgh North and Leith.
Lose £400,
Win £956 if this transpires.
Under Ms Sturgeon, I presume the SNP will become more Leftish and lose Tartan Tories over time.
Mr Murphy could do a Tony and keep these voters and remain Labourite.
Do you think he's OK?
Probably not to bother, with the awful examples of the LDs in both Holyrood and Westminster. Minority government on a supply basis. Unless something very very tasty was on offer, and I'm not thinking of ministerial cars.
The English parties would form one to stop them getting their own way. They would have to.
Surely, the SNP would want a pact with the English ruling party to just stay out of each other's way and devolve as much as possible?
The least friendly devolvers are Labour.
That leaves the Tories, unless UKIP suddenly wipe Labour out in England.
Win-win!
Mr Miliband, there is a bottle of whisky and a revolver on the table.
Moses_ said:
» show previous quotes
Nick, as you may remember or perhaps not, we have crossed swords in the past in many ways but i always have appreciated your open approach. To be on a site like this and be exposed to whatever comes your way is unusual and not many on your side would do this so you have my absolute respect for that whatever your views.
In saying that do you really seriously believe what you just put there? Burnham? NHS.
* shakes head*
DUEMA
ABL
Don't Unseat Ed Miliband Association? (not sure what ABL is!)
A belated welcome back, Moses!
Thanks Sunil.
My trademark if you remember " ALB = Anyone but Labour *. "
* with apologies to NPXMP
£ 10.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting SW-|Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross SNP 6/1
With the SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon snapping at their heels to become the main party of the left in Scotland, its make your mind up time for the Labour party and one of their biggest Union donors. Its time to either shut up and put the Labour party first as I suspect Jim Murphy has decided to do, or its going Falkirk/Lab/Unite all over again. Only this time, on a bigger scale right before that all important GE, and no one is going to come out looking like a winner if that happens. And the last thing the Scottish Labour party should do right now is try to move even more leftward than the SNP are going to do under Sturgeon.
I honestly can't get my head around EdM being less popular in Scotland than AN Other Tory.
It's hilariously bad. IIRC @Sean_Fear noted some bizarrely Truth Stranger Than Fiction polling changes on FPT - this is my #1.
oh dear... oops!
ABL
Anyone but Labour.
of course
Blame the spell checker , weather or anyone else but me.
It's conceivable that Labour's vote will split in the way the Lib Dems has.
Some go to UKIP (wwc) , some go to Respect (muslim), some go to Plaid (welsh) and some go to the left (green) and some go to the only place that is left which isn't "racist" or "muslim" or "too liberal/white" - the Tories.
It's conceivable.
limited information
Con 0
Lab 4
Lib Dems 1
SNP 54
EDIT: Tories get 0, not 1.
If there are two or three more similar polls, almost impossible to exlude the SNP from the debates, on the same grounds as the Lib Dems i.e. influence in parliament after the event.
Will Ed score sub Foot ?
Foot was a towering colossus compared to the vacuum of Ed
RT @Conorpope: Ed Miliband is at the Scottish Labour Party annual dinner tonight. http://t.co/9iosyM1Bnb
EdM may as well support EVEL ... he's got nothing to lose anymore.