I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the Lefties of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of denial, , when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, Ed is still leader of the Labour Party..
I recall a poll before GE 2010 that had the Tories at 52% ....... as Antifrank says. this poll is incredible in the same way as the 2010 poll was...
It's not literally unbelievable, but SLab (and, as antifrank notes, Con & LD too) will certainly hope it marks a high point.
It's a perfect storm really - the referendum result; the departure of Salmond for a new, less divisive face - Nicola is Major to Alec's Thatcher ;-) ; and a poisonous resignation by the Scottish Labour leader. And there may well be some normal sampling error on top.
I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
Just found the regional predictor on electoral calculus, if you put in the nationals of Tories 31, Labour 31, Lib Dems 8, and these results for Scotland, you get:
Labour 285 Tories 267 Nationalists 60 Lib Dems 15 Minor & other 23
An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
Labour dying at the hand of the son of an immigrant - how apt.
Labour dying at the hand of the son of a Marxist is much more apt.
That's what makes the poll a touch unbeliveable. Con VI has been steady at General elections at about 16% for the last 4 elections. No reason for 6 percentage points to have just vanished overnight.
Hopefully Labour will respond to this by offering plenty more goodies for Scotland, and nothing for England, and UKIP can use that on northern doorsteps.
An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
There will be a clear Conservative majority in England. The logical outcome being...
No - UKIP do very bad in Scotland - which has its own Nationalist Party. However note that this means that UKIP voting is more concentrated i.e. bad polling in London/ Scotland = improved polling in the rest of the country.
(Looking at polling reports it suggests that Labour only do well in London and parts of the North of England.)
Tonight should be very interesting - no matter what happens I doubt that Labour will be able to spin the results as good news.
That's what makes the poll a touch unbeliveable. Con VI has been steady at General elections at about 16% for the last 4 elections. No reason for 6 percentage points to have just vanished overnight.
This poll smells like an outlier.
An outlier from the true position of SNP 40ish, Lab 30ish I think...
I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the Lefties of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of denial, , when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, Ed is still leader of the Labour Party..
An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
Just to underline what I said there, three days BEFORE the referendum:
1. I predicted NO would win, I was within two points of the actual scores 2. I predicted that, after the indyref loss, the Scots would give him a "very big vote as a consolation prize" in 2015. Heh. 3. I predicted that he would retire (admittedly after the GE, but I was only 8 months out) 4. I predicted that he would get devomax anyway, despite losing 5. I predicted the SNP would become the biggest Scottish party in Holyrood and Westminster, as now looks very very likely
Without blowing my own trumpet, because it's just not my style, that is some pretty special reading of the runes, right there.
Not bad for a nerdy, little boy from Primrose Hill (borders)!
Bizarrely, the movement on betfair has been for NOM to shorten [obviously] but Tory Maj to go out, leaving Lab Maj more-or-less unchanged. This can't last.
Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
Nah. If Labour loses the election, they'll recover under someone else as UKIP'll turn their attention to the Tories.
If you said "Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that kills Labour", you might very well be right, should he become PM. They have virtually no core support left and are hoping to stumble into office on an oppositionist tide; one which would then leave them marooned.
Bizarrely, the movement on betfair has been for NOM to shorten [obviously] but Tory Maj to go out, leaving Lab Maj more-or-less unchanged. This can't last.
Bizarrely, the movement on betfair has been for NOM to shorten [obviously] but Tory Maj to go out, leaving Lab Maj more-or-less unchanged. This can't last.
Quite agree - I've just laid laid Labour for a £100/£245 anyway.
Though of course Scotland offers no increase in a chance of a Conservative Majority.
But it does reduce the chance of a Labour one.
I can't see them going to 4 seats but surely they will lose... some.
Without blowing my own trumpet, because it's just not my style, that is some pretty special reading of the runes, right there.
If you hadn't also read them to cover every other conceivable outcome, that would indeed be impressive.
If the thriller writing thing comes to an end you have a great future in horoscopes...
suck it up, baby. I NAILED that prediction. i f*cking KILLED it.
I defy anyone to produce something that they said pre-indyref, that contains such uncanny clairvoyant accuracy, making five spookily accurate predictions, in one single comment.
BOW DOWN BEFORE THE ORACLE OF KNOX.
*LITERALLY EXPLODES WITH HUBRIS*
Dear Mr SeanTee
My mother is afflicted and we do not have running fresh water. Please can you supply next Saturdays lottery results ..... Today
Let me know bank details yes? And signature is good also?
Thank you
PS promise to by one of your books when it gets to the bargain bin
Bizarrely, the movement on betfair has been for NOM to shorten [obviously] but Tory Maj to go out, leaving Lab Maj more-or-less unchanged. This can't last.
The Baxter calc is keeping the Lab maj price high.
Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
He might get his place in history after all.
If/when it all goes tits up there will be a mad scramble of accusations floating around the Labour party. The I-told-you-so brigade. I expect Balls will play the role of the false Brutus. False as there is nothing noble about him.
Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
Labour dying at the hand of the son of an immigrant - how apt.
Labour dying at the hand of the son of a Marxist is much more apt.
FTP: "As for the poll, they've successfully got us all talking about it! I suspect a Scottish poll, showing the SNP on 98% of the seats or something."
How's that for soothsaying? Eat your heart out, SeanT.
Like Tissueprice I'd think it's a perfect storm effect - even our most enthusiastic supporters would concede it's been a sub-optimal couple of months in Scotland.
Thanks to Moses for the friendly note below. Yes, I know Burnham personally and absolutely trust him to be reliably keener on helping the NHS than diverting money to local authorities (which was the concern that I was replying to).
Having been to Exeter I was always surprised how quickly it has become a safeish Labour seat. The stoodents are not your radical set, in fact, anything but. The town itself has no large industry or big union tradition. Haven't been for many years but I cannot believe it has been pauperised either.
An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?
I'm now altering the wikipedia page on Famous Prophets, to make sure the large section on me is properly sourced and referenced.
The Pythoness at Delphi had some good ideas, BTW. You could sit on a kitchen stool above a drain grille in Camden, for added effect, though it's up to you if you want to do something about your gender ...
An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?
They won't.
Labour has taken the same drubbing the Lib Dems have from being "red" and "yellow" tories as a result of the Indy Ref.
I can see the SNP supporting C&S for either Labour or Tory though in return for Scottish goodies. Which would be a massive headache for either Mr Miliband or Dave.
After this poll surely it has to be Murphy for SLAB, and surely Salmond cannot resist running for Westminster-he seemed still very animated at FM questions today.
Still available bet at Ladbrokes at evens that Salmond will be elected to Westminster in 2015 GE- I got on at the maximum £50 they would let me have at 2/1 yesterday. They let me have another £50 at evens a short time ago.
Murphy is Scottish Labour's last best hope-tragic though that is!
I don't doubt the SNP support will fall back, but as said earlier this potentially puts the SNP in a pre-independence Ireland situation with a very high likelihood of holding the balance of power.
What pitiful excuses will the BBC etc use to deny the SNP some role in the UK leader debates? It is now win/win in spades for the SNP on the issue-let them in, great publicity but exclude them-utter prejudice!
At this rate its going to need a five party coalition to get a majority of three.
I'm also reminded that Lloyd George decided that letting the Irish have independence was a good idea when he realised that the new universal franchise meant the alternative was 100 Irish mainly nationalist MPs holding the balance of power in parliament permanently.
So when Scottish Labour gets a new leader, they'll get a bounce back. But by what mechanism will the Scottish Conservatives get a bounce back from 10%?
So when Scottish Labour gets a new leader, they'll get a bounce back. But by what mechanism will the Scottish Conservatives get a bounce back from 10%?
When the unions Labour select Neil Findlay to chase Nicola as far left as they can
At this rate its going to need a five party coalition to get a majority of three.
I'm also reminded that Lloyd George decided that letting the Irish have independence was a good idea when he realised that the new universal franchise meant the alternative was 100 Irish mainly nationalist MPs holding the balance of power in parliament permanently.
But the Scots don't want independence, they want to have their cake served up on a platter. And eat it.
If I was Scottish I'd definitely vote SNP. And the rise of the SNP as they demand "fair" deals for Scotland can surely only help UKIP in England.
FTP: "As for the poll, they've successfully got us all talking about it! I suspect a Scottish poll, showing the SNP on 98% of the seats or something."
How's that for soothsaying? Eat your heart out, SeanT.
Like Tissueprice I'd think it's a perfect storm effect - even our most enthusiastic supporters would concede it's been a sub-optimal couple of months in Scotland.
Thanks to Moses for the friendly note below. Yes, I know Burnham personally and absolutely trust him to be reliably keener on helping the NHS than diverting money to local authorities (which was the concern that I was replying to).
Even with a taxi-style wipeout for the Lib Dems in England this sort of result would increase the size of the Hung Parliament window at the next GE.
If Labour lose 37 seats in Scotland then they would need to gain about 100 seats in England to win a majority. This would be something like Staffordshire Moorlands, which requires a swing of 7.7%. That isn't going to happen.
Still, if it's only a Hung Parliament because of the SNP, but Labour take a majority, or even a plurality, of English seats, then it probably makes sorting out the devolution mess a bit simpler. Labour need less than a 5% swing to hold more seats than the Conservatives in England.
Where's the obligatory Hodges article? For once he'd be 100% correct to portray this as "a disaster for Ed Miliband".
It clashes with another one of his predictions that the SNP would be toast after the referendum.
His long-held thesis has been that Labour's support would "swing back" to the Conservatives. In actual fact, their support's been drifting to virtually every party EXCEPT the Conservatives, which means the big two are now level pegging even though the Tories are still at the dire polling levels of the Omnishambles in 2012.
An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?
FALSE_FLAG said "God help the country if there there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus."
So how about free votes in the Commons for all MPs all the time. The PM would initially be from the largest party but if (s)he couldn't hack it a free vote of MPs for PM too! (Just joking)
A rare case of a poll living up to its billing. Looks good for the Greens as well. Any prospect of them taking a seat or two?
The Greens are targeting one seat in Scotland, Edinburgh East. Their candidate is the rector of Edinburgh University, and they're angling for a pact with the SNP where the SNP give them a clear run in this seat in return for the Greens stepping aside in other seats.
This poll is probably bad news for the Greens because it will encourage the SNP to ignore such entreaties.
Modesty forbids me from mentioning who tipped the Greens at 33/1 in this seat last week...
Even with a taxi-style wipeout for the Lib Dems in England this sort of result would increase the size of the Hung Parliament window at the next GE.
If Labour lose 37 seats in Scotland then they would need to gain about 100 seats in England to win a majority. This would be something like Staffordshire Moorlands, which requires a swing of 7.7%. That isn't going to happen.
Still, if it's only a Hung Parliament because of the SNP, but Labour take a majority, or even a plurality, of English seats, then it probably makes sorting out the devolution mess a bit simpler. Labour need less than a 5% swing to hold more seats than the Conservatives in England.
Aren't Labour offering the most anaemic version of devolution though? The offer from the Tories (and Lib Dems for what that's worth) is much more devolutionary.
Also... "Vote Ed, Get Salmond"
The Scottish situation is a complete disaster for Labour.
Their links to Scotland will be poisonous in England.
When will you lot awaken and see what's caused Scotland to abandon Labour, The Lib Dems to tank and the Greens to surge? It's all one reason. Fracking will decide the 2015 election as I keep telling you. DAILY RECORD SNP Ministers slam UK Government plans to allow fracking in Scotland.. despite 99% of people opposing it Sep 25, 2014 22:38 By Dailyrecord.co.uk FERGUS EWING, Scottish Government energy minister says that the UK Government plans amount to riding roughshod over Scottish people's views.. and called for immediate devolution of oil and gas grilling decisions.
As Plaid Cymru are opposing fracking, fracking could also swing Wales away from Labour. The only difference is that Welsh fracking is only just starting to get permissions, starting with Borras near Wrexham.
If the SNP get 50 seats (which I doubt) will they still only vote on Scotland specific items? If so, the real majority needed would be considerably less than 326. Say 650-50SNP-5SF-Speaker=594 so a majority for EWNI matters with 298 seats.
When will you lot awaken and see what's caused Scotland to abandon Labour, The Lib Dems to tank and the Greens to surge? It's all one reason. Fracking will decide the 2015 election as I keep telling you. DAILY RECORD SNP Ministers slam UK Government plans to allow fracking in Scotland.. despite 99% of people opposing it Sep 25, 2014 22:38 By Dailyrecord.co.uk FERGUS EWING, Scottish Government energy minister says that the UK Government plans amount to riding roughshod over Scottish people's views.. and called for immediate devolution of oil and gas grilling decisions.
UKIP are very fond of Fracking, but they seem to be doing ok.
Comments
He's got self-esteem in spades. Not such a good vice right now.
It's a perfect storm really - the referendum result; the departure of Salmond for a new, less divisive face - Nicola is Major to Alec's Thatcher ;-) ; and a poisonous resignation by the Scottish Labour leader. And there may well be some normal sampling error on top.
If the thriller writing thing comes to an end you have a great future in horoscopes...
Labour 285
Tories 267
Nationalists 60
Lib Dems 15
Minor & other 23
Let's paaarrrttteh!
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
The £7 or so I've got on
Con Most seats, Labour most votes at ~ 70-1 could come in useful to avoid a large loss.
glum faces and humble pie for pud...?
This poll smells like an outlier.
(Looking at polling reports it suggests that Labour only do well in London and parts of the North of England.)
Tonight should be very interesting - no matter what happens I doubt that Labour will be able to spin the results as good news.
"Tomorrow you'll still be Ed Miliband."
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
DUEMA
Maybe this time it really, really, really is different.
That's approaching the level of victory that the IPP used to achieve before Irish Independence.
If you said "Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that kills Labour", you might very well be right, should he become PM. They have virtually no core support left and are hoping to stumble into office on an oppositionist tide; one which would then leave them marooned.
Conservative majority last matched at 5/1
http://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/
Though of course Scotland offers no increase in a chance of a Conservative Majority.
But it does reduce the chance of a Labour one.
I can't see them going to 4 seats but surely they will lose... some.
Dear Mr SeanTee
My mother is afflicted and we do not have running fresh water. Please can you supply next Saturdays lottery results ..... Today
Let me know bank details yes? And signature is good also?
Thank you
PS promise to by one of your books when it gets to the bargain bin
Not happen here is Africa for long time
NOM is got to be approaching nailed on status.
He might get his place in history after all.
If/when it all goes tits up there will be a mad scramble of accusations floating around the Labour party. The I-told-you-so brigade. I expect Balls will play the role of the false Brutus. False as there is nothing noble about him.
GE2005 result England
VOTES: CON 35.7%, LAB 35.5%
MPs: CON 194, LAB 286
Labour (last 6 populus) 24.8 -------SNP 38.2
Labour (last 6 Ashcrofts) 27.5 ------SNP 46.2
Marxists have killed many.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contemporary_Impressionists
I believe Plaid are further left of Labour. More like the Greens than the SNP. So they limit themselves. (That said, I don't live in Wales.)
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/Wales10.pdf
UKIP, LD, Lab, Con put together and doubled.
"As for the poll, they've successfully got us all talking about it! I suspect a Scottish poll, showing the SNP on 98% of the seats or something."
How's that for soothsaying? Eat your heart out, SeanT.
Like Tissueprice I'd think it's a perfect storm effect - even our most enthusiastic supporters would concede it's been a sub-optimal couple of months in Scotland.
Thanks to Moses for the friendly note below. Yes, I know Burnham personally and absolutely trust him to be reliably keener on helping the NHS than diverting money to local authorities (which was the concern that I was replying to).
...and yet not in any way accurate.
A Con-SNP coalition would be a hoot.
Labour has taken the same drubbing the Lib Dems have from being "red" and "yellow" tories as a result of the Indy Ref.
I can see the SNP supporting C&S for either Labour or Tory though in return for Scottish goodies. Which would be a massive headache for either Mr Miliband or Dave.
If the SNP had 54 MPs at Westminster, including a certain A Salmond, who would hold the balance of power within the SNP?
Still available bet at Ladbrokes at evens that Salmond will be elected to Westminster in 2015 GE- I got on at the maximum £50 they would let me have at 2/1 yesterday. They let me have another £50 at evens a short time ago.
Murphy is Scottish Labour's last best hope-tragic though that is!
I don't doubt the SNP support will fall back, but as said earlier this potentially puts the SNP in a pre-independence Ireland situation with a very high likelihood of holding the balance of power.
What pitiful excuses will the BBC etc use to deny the SNP some role in the UK leader debates?
It is now win/win in spades for the SNP on the issue-let them in, great publicity but exclude them-utter prejudice!
The way things are going, by the time we get to the GE leaders debates, there will only be the Conservatives, Ukip and the SNP eligible.
So I'd say Salmond if this result came about.
33, 29, 27, 20.
I'm also reminded that Lloyd George decided that letting the Irish have independence was a good idea when he realised that the new universal franchise meant the alternative was 100 Irish mainly nationalist MPs holding the balance of power in parliament permanently.
Which is not to say it couldn't happen...!
http://order-order.com/2014/10/30/ipsos-mori-poll-labour-face-wipeout-in-scotland/
Comres (last 4) 16.8
YouGov (last 10) 17.7
Populus (last 6) 19.8
Ashcroft (last 6) 11.5
the unionsLabour select Neil Findlay to chase Nicola as far left as they canIf I was Scottish I'd definitely vote SNP. And the rise of the SNP as they demand "fair" deals for Scotland can surely only help UKIP in England.
Your welcome Nick and duly noted.
Please just remember though....... DUEMA
;-)
If Labour lose 37 seats in Scotland then they would need to gain about 100 seats in England to win a majority. This would be something like Staffordshire Moorlands, which requires a swing of 7.7%. That isn't going to happen.
Still, if it's only a Hung Parliament because of the SNP, but Labour take a majority, or even a plurality, of English seats, then it probably makes sorting out the devolution mess a bit simpler. Labour need less than a 5% swing to hold more seats than the Conservatives in England.
A rare case of a poll living up to its billing. Looks good for the Greens as well. Any prospect of them taking a seat or two?
@chrishanretty I currently have absolutely no idea how to re-price the Scottish seats.
@MSmithsonPB
LibDem GE2005 votes: 22.9%
MPs: 47
His long-held thesis has been that Labour's support would "swing back" to the Conservatives. In actual fact, their support's been drifting to virtually every party EXCEPT the Conservatives, which means the big two are now level pegging even though the Tories are still at the dire polling levels of the Omnishambles in 2012.
Big overrounds and short prices on the SNP would be my advice if I was his boss at Ladbrokes.
They happily worked with them 2007-11.
So how about free votes in the Commons for all MPs all the time. The PM would initially be from the largest party but if (s)he couldn't hack it a free vote of MPs for PM too!
(Just joking)
This poll is probably bad news for the Greens because it will encourage the SNP to ignore such entreaties.
Modesty forbids me from mentioning who tipped the Greens at 33/1 in this seat last week...
Also... "Vote Ed, Get Salmond"
The Scottish situation is a complete disaster for Labour.
Their links to Scotland will be poisonous in England.
DAILY RECORD
SNP Ministers slam UK Government plans to allow fracking in Scotland.. despite 99% of people opposing it
Sep 25, 2014 22:38 By Dailyrecord.co.uk
FERGUS EWING, Scottish Government energy minister says that the UK Government plans amount to riding roughshod over Scottish people's views.. and called for immediate devolution of oil and gas grilling decisions.
As Plaid Cymru are opposing fracking, fracking could also swing Wales away from Labour. The only difference is that Welsh fracking is only just starting to get permissions, starting with Borras near Wrexham.
I am just unhappy that by baby filled my time yesterday and prevented me getting any speculative SNP bets on.