SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
Well Labour are crushing the Lib-Dem/Labour marginals.
How for example could this seat go SNP on those figures?
Labour Alistair Darling 19,473 42.8 +3.0 Conservative Jason Rust 11,026 24.3 +1.0 Liberal Democrat Tim McKay 8,194 18.0 -3.1 SNP Kaukab Stewart 5,530 12.2 +1.6 Scottish Green Clare Cooney 872 1.9 -1.6 Scottish Socialist Colin Fox
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
The Tory trolls' job on here is try to bait - don't let them win. So many of them offer nothing but right wing vitriol.
This is a betting blog afterall yet we see no betting tips from the aforementioned Tory trolls...
"I don't honestly Labour performing this badly ..."
Maybe a significant number of voters are waking up to the fact that they have always voted Labour but their lives don't get any better.
Lets hope Carswell manages to sort things out in his constituency, before the electorate wake up to the fact that they're living in a never changing shithole.
So when Scottish Labour gets a new leader, they'll get a bounce back. But by what mechanism will the Scottish Conservatives get a bounce back from 10%?
You're missing the point.
This is a very bad poll for the Tories, it's true, but it's disastrous for Labour on more than one level.
We've already talked about how it would be Tory -1 but Labour -37 (at least), so in net terms levelling the playing field substantially on a GB-wide basis, but there's another point which is why your assumption behind your assertion is wrong.
No party can replace another party without occupying substantially the same part of the political spectrum unless support for those beliefs collapses totally and the original party fails to move with it. This was why the talk of the Lib Dems replacing the Tories when IDS was leader was bonkers, because the Lib Dems under Kennedy were to the left of Labour. It's also why UKIP in more recent years poses a more existential threat to the Cons, though as UKIP too seems to be trending left, that may turn out to be less so in the future.
The SNP under Sturgeon also looks set to take a decisive turn leftwards. That means that those Scottish right-of-centre voters need somewhere to go. Some may stick with the SNP while they're perceived to be doing a good job but as they fade, and all governments do in time, those voters will return back to the Tories, not least because they'll be just about the only game in town between the centre-left and the hard right.
Labour, on the other hand, could have rather more of a problem. If the SNP does want to go toe-to-toe with Labour *and* if it can make the breakthrough then where does that the forces of Miliband / Lamont / Murphy / some unknown bod from Holyrood?
The Tories can recover from 10% (and most Scottish subsamples have been recording considerably better scores so even if this poll is accurate, the potential is there), though only to perhaps 20% tops. But the point is that there will always be a centre-right party and without any realistic alternatives (I exclude UKIP for now at least), the Tories are it. In the current Scottish climate, the Tories are also the most clearly Unionist party, which matters.
Likewise, there will always be at least one centre-left party, for which competition is currently far fiercer and none has a divine right to survive..
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
The Tories aren't doing fine but if Labour had a Blair c.1997 they'd be 20 points behind in the polls given the political and economic context whereas in fact it's level pegging and all to play for.
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
Well, Labour are between 0-3% ahead, and the trend is relentlessly downward. That's not a good place for the Opposition to be. The Tories were about 13% ahead at this point of the last Parliament.
This is going to be one fascinating General Election.
Politically speaking, it certainly has been an entertaining year so far, which I'm sure will continue right up to GE15 - The final parliamentary year is often a rather dull affair until elction campaigns begin - this one has been a humdinger. ; )
Ah well SNP seats 48 Labour 4 seats -that kind of solves the West Lothian question assuming SNP Mp's continue policy of not voting on England only issues.
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
The Tory trolls' job on here is try to bait - don't let them win. So many of them offer nothing but right wing vitriol.
This is a betting blog afterall yet we see no betting tips from the aforementioned Tory trolls...
'The Tories aren't doing fine but if Labour had a Blair c.1997 they'd be 20 points behind in the polls given the political and economic context whereas in fact it's level pegging and all to play for. '
Why? They've only been in opposition for five years after a long period in power, culminating in an economic clustercuddle. There's no reason at all they should be 20% ahead.
Mr Herdson - thanks for extended response. Yes right of centre Scots need somewhere to go - but it appears that they are going to the grave. Yes, some rightish SNP supporters may drift back to the Tories, but by next year, perhaps not (more likely by 2016 election, perhaps).
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine.
Re Exeter (which I know well) Electoral Calculus hugely underestimates the impact of losing Topsham and St. Loyes. These wards would have given the Tories a lead of c. 2,500 in 2010, making it very tight.
That said, Exeter is more pro-Labour than you'd expect a prosperous Southern city, surrounded by a sea of blue, to be.
Labour cruised in Scotland for years just by shouting "Tories! Boooo!" every five minutes. With the Tories in power it turns out they aren't actually baby eaters, in fact they gave Scotland the referendum they asked for and on reasonably fair terms.
They also want to give devomax that every one promised and it is Labour who are dragging their heels over the matter for their own ends (as usual).
A Labour wipe out in Scotland would be exactly what they deserve.
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
The Tory trolls' job on here is try to bait - don't let them win. So many of them offer nothing but right wing vitriol.
This is a betting blog afterall yet we see no betting tips from the aforementioned Tory trolls...
Lacking in a sense of self awareness, much?
'Baiting' is the PBLefties new description for 'Pointing out the uncomfortable truth'.
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
Just for the record I'm a non-aligned leftish London voter who can't stand the Westminster establishment, including Labour, and who believes that the only conceivable decent future for this country requires the dismantling of FPTP, so I'd be over the moon at SLAB being hoist on their own petard for getting into bed with the Tories by a result even approaching this. A massive SNP result, independence back on the agenda, a minority Miliband government, a few Green and UKIP MPs, and the final demolition of the House of Lords with some sort of creeping, irreversible adoption of PR across local elections and the second chamber and beyond would be my favoured scenario.
Re Exeter (which I know well) Electoral Calculus hugely underestimates the impact of losing Topsham and St. Loyes. These wards would have given the Tories a lead of c. 2,500 in 2010, making it very tight.
That said, Exeter is more pro-Labour than you'd expect a prosperous Southern city, surrounded by a sea of blue, to be.
Interesting poll. Is this a case of differential turnout of nationalist supporters?
The unionists might not have woken up to the general election yet. I'd be surprised to see nationalist support to go that much higher than the 45% achieved in the Indy ref, so the SNP feel about 6-7% too high here.
I'd expect something like SNP 45%, Lab 26%, Con 16%, and Lib Dems 5% (about right) and Greens maybe 4-5%, so around a 15% swing from Labour to the SNP across Scotland.
So any Labour seat with a majority <30% vulnerable to the SNP, particularly in YES areas.
SO let me get this right - Labour are losing voters everywhere, and basically have no supporters anywhere. But they are still ahead of the Tories, who for some reason are doing fine. Because PB Tories.
Well, Labour are between 0-3% ahead, and the trend is relentlessly downward. That's not a good place for the Opposition to be. The Tories were about 13% ahead at this point of the last Parliament.
Re Exeter (which I know well) Electoral Calculus hugely underestimates the impact of losing Topsham and St. Loyes. These wards would have given the Tories a lead of c. 2,500 in 2010, making it very tight.
That said, Exeter is more pro-Labour than you'd expect a prosperous Southern city, surrounded by a sea of blue, to be.
I wonder how much of that is down to Ben Bradshaw?
As a Scottish Tory, I find this poll terrifying, rather than amusing. I'd rather have muppet Miliband as PM of a Britain I was part of than living in an independent Scotland (which these figures would surely lead to - either by SNP declaration of independence or, more likely, another referendum which they'd probably win). That said, I just can't see these figures being replicated at next year's GE. I'd be interested to see Mike's take on the methodology etc, as I just can't see the SNP getting 52% of popular vote or Labour and the Tories doing as badly as 23 and 10 respectively.
'The Tories aren't doing fine but if Labour had a Blair c.1997 they'd be 20 points behind in the polls given the political and economic context whereas in fact it's level pegging and all to play for. '
Why? They've only been in opposition for five years after a long period in power, culminating in an economic clustercuddle. There's no reason at all they should be 20% ahead.
1. Labour ought to be the only party of opposition given that the Lib Dems are in government. In June 2010, they were, effectively. The SNP had a handful of seats, UKIP was a fringe party and Labour had the field to itself.
2. Being in government to clear up Labour's mess has meant the Tories and Lib Dems taking decisions that have not necessarily gone down well with the electorate.
3. Being in coalition has meant that the wing votes of both parties (i.e. Tory right and LD left) are disappointed with their party in government. Labour has picked up about 8% of the electorate from the Lib Dems. Without them, they'd be on about 22-25%.
Re Exeter (which I know well) Electoral Calculus hugely underestimates the impact of losing Topsham and St. Loyes. These wards would have given the Tories a lead of c. 2,500 in 2010, making it very tight.
That said, Exeter is more pro-Labour than you'd expect a prosperous Southern city, surrounded by a sea of blue, to be.
That Tory lead was under entirely different circumstances though - Labour had been in long enough for the Tories to pick up a load of soft 'need for a change' voters who melted away when the Tories actually started revealing some policies. This is a much less volatile situation, despite the crazy political landscape - Labour doesn't have that froth.
Really? Colour me sceptical. Your posts imply a hard-leftish Labour slant given your views on this poll. JWisemann said:Just for the record I'm a non-aligned leftish London voter who can't stand the Westminster establishment, including Labour, and who believes that the only conceivable decent future for this country requires the dismantling of FPTP, so I'd be over the moon at SLAB being hoist on their own petard for getting into bed with the Tories by a result even approaching this. A massive SNP result, independence back on the agenda, a minority Miliband government, a few Green and UKIP MPs, and the final demolition of the House of Lords with some sort of creeping, irreversible adoption of PR across local elections and the second chamber and beyond would be my favoured scenario.
Another thought. This scottish poll shows the tories doing really badly in a part of the country, Scotland, that they only have one seat in. (10 % now 16.7 % in 2010 election
That will bring their GB average artificially down in GB opinion polls. Does that mean they are doing better in England than the polls therefore show?
Its also worth noting that this poll will focus minds within Scottish Labour party when it comes to choosing that next Leader
It will, but will they draw the correct conclusion from it? There will certainly be many in the party who will be arguing that it shows Scottish Labour should move firmly leftwards.
hard to do when most of them are to right of Tories
If I'd been performance managing those in charge of Labour's policy team - they'd all have final written warnings two years ago.
I simply can't understand what they're playing at. It's beyond logic/accidental failure. I can only assume that Labour HQ doesn't know what it stands for anymore so the questions remain unanswered.
Really? Colour me sceptical. Your posts imply a hard-leftish Labour slant given your views on this poll. JWisemann said:
Just for the record I'm a non-aligned leftish London voter who can't stand the Westminster establishment, including Labour, and who believes that the only conceivable decent future for this country requires the dismantling of FPTP, so I'd be over the moon at SLAB being hoist on their own petard for getting into bed with the Tories by a result even approaching this. A massive SNP result, independence back on the agenda, a minority Miliband government, a few Green and UKIP MPs, and the final demolition of the House of Lords with some sort of creeping, irreversible adoption of PR across local elections and the second chamber and beyond would be my favoured scenario.
Really, Plato, you are going to doubt other posters who claimed to be non-aligned? You of all people?
"3. Being in coalition has meant that the wing votes of both parties (i.e. Tory right and LD left) are disappointed with their party in government. Labour has picked up about 8% of the electorate from the Lib Dems. Without them, they'd be on about 22-25%."
If Labour lose 37 seats in Scotland then they would need to gain about 100 seats in England to win a majority. This would be something like Staffordshire Moorlands, which requires a swing of 7.7%. That isn't going to happen.
And seats such as Rochester, which they held from 1997-2010 but have run away from, tail tucked between legs. Add in possible losses such as Heywood to UKIP, maybe Rotherham too...
Rochester isn't on Labour's target list. As demographics in seats change over time some seats become less favourable to Labour and others become more favourable.
However, there are a few UKIP targets on Labour's target list which will definitely make their task harder, such as Thurrock, Waveney, Great Yarmouth, perhaps - even South Thanet.
Re Exeter (which I know well) Electoral Calculus hugely underestimates the impact of losing Topsham and St. Loyes. These wards would have given the Tories a lead of c. 2,500 in 2010, making it very tight.
That said, Exeter is more pro-Labour than you'd expect a prosperous Southern city, surrounded by a sea of blue, to be.
I wonder how much of that is down to Ben Bradshaw?
Not much. Labour are very strong on the city council. They remained very strong in the 1980s, even when the SDP knocked them into 3rd place, at Parliamentary level. I expect the SDP got a lot of tactical Labour voters, who then reverted to Labour in 1992, when they came a close second.
UKIP may be nowhere in Scotland, but this is good news for their chances in England. It bumps up their % considerably. Fighting a war on two fronts is futile. As Germany once found out....
An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?
They happily worked with them 2007-11.
I think you exaggerate just a little there, they gave the Tories a few crumbs now and again and an odd pat on the head. Bit like giving the dog a biscuit.
Really? Colour me sceptical. Your posts imply a hard-leftish Labour slant given your views on this poll. JWisemann said:
Just for the record I'm a non-aligned leftish London voter who can't stand the Westminster establishment, including Labour, and who believes that the only conceivable decent future for this country requires the dismantling of FPTP, so I'd be over the moon at SLAB being hoist on their own petard for getting into bed with the Tories by a result even approaching this. A massive SNP result, independence back on the agenda, a minority Miliband government, a few Green and UKIP MPs, and the final demolition of the House of Lords with some sort of creeping, irreversible adoption of PR across local elections and the second chamber and beyond would be my favoured scenario.
Really, Plato, you are going to doubt other posters who claimed to be non-aligned? You of all people?
That Tory lead was under entirely different circumstances though - Labour had been in long enough for the Tories to pick up a load of soft 'need for a change' voters who melted away when the Tories actually started revealing some policies. This is a much less volatile situation, despite the crazy political landscape - Labour doesn't have that froth.
It does, though. Labour thought it had a firewall of 35%, which turned out to be a sieve.
As a Scottish Tory, I find this poll terrifying, rather than amusing. I'd rather have muppet Miliband as PM of a Britain I was part of than living in an independent Scotland (which these figures would surely lead to - either by SNP declaration of independence or, more likely, another referendum which they'd probably win). That said, I just can't see these figures being replicated at next year's GE. I'd be interested to see Mike's take on the methodology etc, as I just can't see the SNP getting 52% of popular vote or Labour and the Tories doing as badly as 23 and 10 respectively.
Hello there, nice to have another Scot - though we remain (ironically, today) short of Scottish Labour posters.
I'd be surprised too - I expect about 15-18, maybe even 20, for the Tories (impact of indyref). It's SLAB and the LDs who will however do badly because so many of their voters went for yes and because of their getting so publicly in bed with the Tories over the last two years, in Labour's case after spending decades going on about Mrs Thatcher and the evil Tories. A bit like James VI and I suddenly declaring for Satanism, really, and about as useful for their credibility in normal Westminster politics where Labour is supposed to oppose the Tories.
I'm seeing reports of Mr Murphy hugging Dame Annabella Goldie [previous Scottish Tory leader] at the Clydebank indyref count. No idea if they are true - I had a look for photos on the net - but the reports [edit: not necessarily specific to that particular Tory] date from indyref time and if it is true it sums the issue up very nicely.
Where's the obligatory Hodges article? For once he'd be 100% correct to portray this as "a disaster for Ed Miliband".
It clashes with another one of his predictions that the SNP would be toast after the referendum.
His long-held thesis has been that Labour's support would "swing back" to the Conservatives. In actual fact, their support's been drifting to virtually every party EXCEPT the Conservatives, which means the big two are now level pegging even though the Tories are still at the dire polling levels of the Omnishambles in 2012.
John McTernan (he of "there won't be a referendum") labelled the SNP as a Zombie party the other day. I don't think he meant as in terms of an out of control mob consuming all opposition and multiplying rapidly.
Thank you Morris Dancer - I'm a long-time lurker and occasional poster around 2010 GE time. There's been a lot of talk among the more zealous Yesers/SNPers about UDI (unilateral declaration of independence). The proposed criteria for this varies according to who you speak to - but of course it has no legitimate basis. What is more likely is SNP manifesto commitment to (or non-ruling out of) a second referendum if it wins a majority of Scottish seats at either 2015 GE or 2016 Scottish elections. If they won by the kind of landslide suggested by this poll, the Unionist parties would be hard-pressed to deny them it. If it's a result similar to the last Scottish parliament elections (ie narrow SNP maj) they would be entitled to say: "You won by the same margin last time and lost referendum, so you're not having another one".
"3. Being in coalition has meant that the wing votes of both parties (i.e. Tory right and LD left) are disappointed with their party in government. Labour has picked up about 8% of the electorate from the Lib Dems. Without them, they'd be on about 22-25%."
UKIP may be nowhere in Scotland, but this is good news for their chances in England. It bumps up their % considerably. Fighting a war on two fronts is futile. As Germany once found out....
Considerably? Scottish population is about 8-9% of the UK. Though it can't do any harm.
As a Scottish Tory, I find this poll terrifying, rather than amusing. I'd rather have muppet Miliband as PM of a Britain I was part of than living in an independent Scotland (which these figures would surely lead to - either by SNP declaration of independence or, more likely, another referendum which they'd probably win). That said, I just can't see these figures being replicated at next year's GE. I'd be interested to see Mike's take on the methodology etc, as I just can't see the SNP getting 52% of popular vote or Labour and the Tories doing as badly as 23 and 10 respectively.
Hello there, nice to have another Scot - though we remain (ironically, today) short of Scottish Labour posters.
I'd be surprised too - I expect about 15-18, maybe even 20, for the Tories (impact of indyref). It's SLAB and the LDs who will however do badly because so many of their voters went for yes and because of their getting so publicly in bed with the Tories over the last two years, in Labour's case after spending decades going on about Mrs Thatcher and the evil Tories. A bit like James VI and I suddenly declaring for Satanism, really, and about as useful for their credibility in normal Westminster politics where Labour is supposed to oppose the Tories.
I'm seeing reports of Mr Murphy hugging Dame Annabella Goldie [previous Scottish Tory leader] at the Clydebank indyref count. No idea if they are true - I had a look for photos on the net - but the reports date from indyref time and if it is true it sums the issue up very nicely.
PB has never had a regular SLAB poster.
Your comment on Goldie is pathetic she has her views on Scotland not ebola.
Really? Colour me sceptical. Your posts imply a hard-leftish Labour slant given your views on this poll. JWisemann said:
Just for the record I'm a non-aligned leftish London voter who can't stand the Westminster establishment, including Labour, and who believes that the only conceivable decent future for this country requires the dismantling of FPTP, so I'd be over the moon at SLAB being hoist on their own petard for getting into bed with the Tories by a result even approaching this. A massive SNP result, independence back on the agenda, a minority Miliband government, a few Green and UKIP MPs, and the final demolition of the House of Lords with some sort of creeping, irreversible adoption of PR across local elections and the second chamber and beyond would be my favoured scenario.
Really, Plato, you are going to doubt other posters who claimed to be non-aligned? You of all people?
As a Scottish Tory, I find this poll terrifying, rather than amusing. I'd rather have muppet Miliband as PM of a Britain I was part of than living in an independent Scotland (which these figures would surely lead to - either by SNP declaration of independence or, more likely, another referendum which they'd probably win). That said, I just can't see these figures being replicated at next year's GE. I'd be interested to see Mike's take on the methodology etc, as I just can't see the SNP getting 52% of popular vote or Labour and the Tories doing as badly as 23 and 10 respectively.
The numbers are almost certainly a little extreme, but not ridiculously so.
Firstly, 45% of Scots voted for independence just six weeks ago. That implies that the SNP pretty much have 45% on their side as a matter of principle.
Secondly, the aggregated subsamples from several pollsters regularly give a Westminster VI ball park figure of 40%.
Thirdly, the Labour subsamples from several pollsters have Labour mid 20s.
Fourth, the Tories are largely around 16-19 from the same aggregates, though Ashcroft has an 11
Fifth, the Survation Scots Poll was taken immediately post referendum before any unwind, so is easily discountable.
Sixth, Panelbase fieldwork was 29/9-1/10, so it was soon after Ed's conference speech but pre-dated Cameron's, predated Lamont's resignation and hadn't had time for the full effect of Westminster delay and EV4EL politics to feed in.
It is also worth noting that TNS did a trust poll on devolution in mid October. Scots trust in Ed Miliband to deliver was 1%. Even Cameron scored higher.
The unpollable factor is the Scots dislike for the Tories. When it actually comes to the vote it wont be a choice between the SNP and Labour but a choice between Labour and the Tories and in that there really is no contest. They have ALWAYS voted tactically for Labour and often without much enthusiasm
I'm not sure the legendary Scottish hatred of the Tories is a potent driver of tactical voting. At least not any more.
Devomax should mean the Westminster mix becomes much less relevant. The Scottish Parliament (which would be under an ironlike SNP grip) controls almost all the issues which affect the daily lives of scots; the Tory bogeyman is demoted from a baby-eating fiend to the pesky imp who hides one sock from every pair.
As a Scottish Tory, I find this poll terrifying, rather than amusing. I'd rather have muppet Miliband as PM of a Britain I was part of than living in an independent Scotland (which these figures would surely lead to - either by SNP declaration of independence or, more likely, another referendum which they'd probably win). That said, I just can't see these figures being replicated at next year's GE. I'd be interested to see Mike's take on the methodology etc, as I just can't see the SNP getting 52% of popular vote or Labour and the Tories doing as badly as 23 and 10 respectively.
.
I'm seeing reports of Mr Murphy hugging Dame Annabella Goldie [previous Scottish Tory leader] at the Clydebank indyref count. No idea if they are true - I had a look for photos on the net - but the reports [edit: not necessarily specific to that particular Tory] date from indyref time and if it is true it sums the issue up very nicely.
As a Scottish Tory, I find this poll terrifying, rather than amusing. I'd rather have muppet Miliband as PM of a Britain I was part of than living in an independent Scotland (which these figures would surely lead to - either by SNP declaration of independence or, more likely, another referendum which they'd probably win). That said, I just can't see these figures being replicated at next year's GE. I'd be interested to see Mike's take on the methodology etc, as I just can't see the SNP getting 52% of popular vote or Labour and the Tories doing as badly as 23 and 10 respectively.
Hello there, nice to have another Scot - though we remain (ironically, today) short of Scottish Labour posters.
I'd be surprised too - I expect about 15-18, maybe even 20, for the Tories (impact of indyref). It's SLAB and the LDs who will however do badly because so many of their voters went for yes and because of their getting so publicly in bed with the Tories over the last two years, in Labour's case after spending decades going on about Mrs Thatcher and the evil Tories. A bit like James VI and I suddenly declaring for Satanism, really, and about as useful for their credibility in normal Westminster politics where Labour is supposed to oppose the Tories.
I'm seeing reports of Mr Murphy hugging Dame Annabella Goldie [previous Scottish Tory leader] at the Clydebank indyref count. No idea if they are true - I had a look for photos on the net - but the reports date from indyref time and if it is true it sums the issue up very nicely.
PB has never had a regular SLAB poster.
Your comment on Goldie is pathetic she has her views on Scotland not ebola.
Actually I rather liked Auntie Bella - not least because she was actually willing to work with the opposition for what she and her party believed in.
Mr Herdson - thanks for extended response. Yes right of centre Scots need somewhere to go - but it appears that they are going to the grave. Yes, some rightish SNP supporters may drift back to the Tories, but by next year, perhaps not (more likely by 2016 election, perhaps).
As a Scottish Tory, I find this poll terrifying, rather than amusing. I'd rather have muppet Miliband as PM of a Britain I was part of than living in an independent Scotland (which these figures would surely lead to - either by SNP declaration of independence or, more likely, another referendum which they'd probably win). That said, I just can't see these figures being replicated at next year's GE. I'd be interested to see Mike's take on the methodology etc, as I just can't see the SNP getting 52% of popular vote or Labour and the Tories doing as badly as 23 and 10 respectively.
Hello there, nice to have another Scot - though we remain (ironically, today) short of Scottish Labour posters.
I'd be surprised too - I expect about 15-18, maybe even 20, for the Tories (impact of indyref). It's SLAB and the LDs who will however do badly because so many of their voters went for yes and because of their getting so publicly in bed with the Tories over the last two years, in Labour's case after spending decades going on about Mrs Thatcher and the evil Tories. A bit like James VI and I suddenly declaring for Satanism, really, and about as useful for their credibility in normal Westminster politics where Labour is supposed to oppose the Tories.
I'm seeing reports of Mr Murphy hugging Dame Annabella Goldie [previous Scottish Tory leader] at the Clydebank indyref count. No idea if they are true - I had a look for photos on the net - but the reports date from indyref time and if it is true it sums the issue up very nicely.
PB has never had a regular SLAB poster.
Your comment on Goldie is pathetic she has her views on Scotland not ebola.
Twattish.
Actually I rather liked Auntie Bella - not least because she was actually willing to work with the opposition for what she and her party believed in.
Mr Herdson - thanks for extended response. Yes right of centre Scots need somewhere to go - but it appears that they are going to the grave. Yes, some rightish SNP supporters may drift back to the Tories, but by next year, perhaps not (more likely by 2016 election, perhaps).
I was. I voted for Paddy too - and Tories in 1983 - my first time back to them was 2010. Now I've joined up for the first time ever as I think it's my duty to put my money where my mouth is here.
I think my decision to formally join the Tories was a big thing. I will leave them again - but I thought it was necessary as a show of support in an age of declining engagement.
Really? Colour me sceptical. Your posts imply a hard-leftish Labour slant given your views on this poll. JWisemann said:
Just for the record I'm a non-aligned leftish London voter who can't stand the Westminster establishment, including Labour, and who believes that the only conceivable decent future for this country requires the dismantling of FPTP, so I'd be over the moon at SLAB being hoist on their own petard for getting into bed with the Tories by a result even approaching this. A massive SNP result, independence back on the agenda, a minority Miliband government, a few Green and UKIP MPs, and the final demolition of the House of Lords with some sort of creeping, irreversible adoption of PR across local elections and the second chamber and beyond would be my favoured scenario.
Really, Plato, you are going to doubt other posters who claimed to be non-aligned? You of all people?
"3. Being in coalition has meant that the wing votes of both parties (i.e. Tory right and LD left) are disappointed with their party in government. Labour has picked up about 8% of the electorate from the Lib Dems. Without them, they'd be on about 22-25%."
I had not even begun to consider that.
If Miliband does become PM, expect them to be among the first votes to drift back to a Farron-led Lib Dems.
I don't think it's unreasonable to consider a Miliband government polling around 15% by October 2016, possibly in fourth place.
Tholster Why? No won by 10% and all the post indyref polls have shown Scots do not want another referendum for at least 15 years. Once devomax is out the way and Scottish Labour have a new leader it will tighten again, all these figures will do is make it more likely the Tories will be largest party at Westminster if they are ahead on votes
Re Exeter (which I know well) Electoral Calculus hugely underestimates the impact of losing Topsham and St. Loyes. These wards would have given the Tories a lead of c. 2,500 in 2010, making it very tight.
That said, Exeter is more pro-Labour than you'd expect a prosperous Southern city, surrounded by a sea of blue, to be.
All those MetOffice Civil Serpents.
Exeter University probably skews the city leftwards, but not much, as Exeter students are well to the Right of students generally (University lecturers, however, are as left-wing as anywhere). The County Council is located there, so there's a public sector presence, and as you say, the Met Office.
But, in general, the city's economy is private-sector dominated, based on financial services, retailing, insurance, law, tourism, with several large business parks. It's a very nice city, with some real gems of architecture, like the Cathedral and Square, Guildhall, Rougemont Castle and Gardens, ancient churches dedicated to saints you've never heard of, medieval walls, Georgian and Regency Terraces, and the Quayside. And that's after bombing and redevelopment took their toll. Pre-War, it was like Edinburgh on a smaller scale.
If I had to make a guess, I'd say White, working class voters here have stayed loyal to Labour, in a way that's unusual in the South these days (there's no big ethnic minority population).
Intriguing US blind item from Blind Gossip 'This acting celebrity is known to be a strong supporter of the Democratic Party and has consistently put their money where their mouth is over the years. When Barack Obama was running in 2008, they were among his most vocal supporters. You may have noticed that they have quieted down significantly. Their financial contributions have slowed to a trickle, too. That’s because while they are still a Democrat, they are privately telling close family and friends that "Obama fucking betrayed me" (No, we don’t know what that’s all about); that they "can’t wait until he leaves office and takes his entire fucking pack of liars with him"; and that "Obama is the worst fucking President EVER." http://blindgossip.com/?p=66324
UKIP may be nowhere in Scotland, but this is good news for their chances in England. It bumps up their % considerably. Fighting a war on two fronts is futile. As Germany once found out....
UKIP are not nowhere in Scotland. They gained a Scotland MEP at the last EU election compared with two for SNP.
Re Exeter (which I know well) Electoral Calculus hugely underestimates the impact of losing Topsham and St. Loyes. These wards would have given the Tories a lead of c. 2,500 in 2010, making it very tight.
That said, Exeter is more pro-Labour than you'd expect a prosperous Southern city, surrounded by a sea of blue, to be.
All those MetOffice Civil Serpents.
... mostly drive to work via the M5, A30 or A38. There's a reason the Met Office was built right by a motorway junction.
That Tory lead was under entirely different circumstances though - Labour had been in long enough for the Tories to pick up a load of soft 'need for a change' voters who melted away when the Tories actually started revealing some policies. This is a much less volatile situation, despite the crazy political landscape - Labour doesn't have that froth.
It does, though. Labour thought it had a firewall of 35%, which turned out to be a sieve.
Yup. The "firewall" stuff and comments about how Labour couldn't go below 35% were, I think, based on the fact there were SO many people saying "well, I definitely won't be voting Tory or Lib Dem" -- a complacent assumption was made that most of those people would vote Labour when it come to the crunch of choosing between Labour and the Tories, even if they weren't particularly enthused by Labour. They have completely underestimated how many people are so pissed off that, even if they think Labour are marginally the lesser of two evils, they don't think the difference is big enough to actually vote for them rather than voting for a small party that they really like.
Comments
This is going to be one fascinating General Election.
Because PB Tories.
LAB HOLD EAST HAM !!!!
Labour Alistair Darling 19,473 42.8 +3.0
Conservative Jason Rust 11,026 24.3 +1.0
Liberal Democrat Tim McKay 8,194 18.0 -3.1
SNP Kaukab Stewart 5,530 12.2 +1.6
Scottish Green Clare Cooney 872 1.9 -1.6
Scottish Socialist Colin Fox
This is a betting blog afterall yet we see no betting tips from the aforementioned Tory trolls...
This is a very bad poll for the Tories, it's true, but it's disastrous for Labour on more than one level.
We've already talked about how it would be Tory -1 but Labour -37 (at least), so in net terms levelling the playing field substantially on a GB-wide basis, but there's another point which is why your assumption behind your assertion is wrong.
No party can replace another party without occupying substantially the same part of the political spectrum unless support for those beliefs collapses totally and the original party fails to move with it. This was why the talk of the Lib Dems replacing the Tories when IDS was leader was bonkers, because the Lib Dems under Kennedy were to the left of Labour. It's also why UKIP in more recent years poses a more existential threat to the Cons, though as UKIP too seems to be trending left, that may turn out to be less so in the future.
The SNP under Sturgeon also looks set to take a decisive turn leftwards. That means that those Scottish right-of-centre voters need somewhere to go. Some may stick with the SNP while they're perceived to be doing a good job but as they fade, and all governments do in time, those voters will return back to the Tories, not least because they'll be just about the only game in town between the centre-left and the hard right.
Labour, on the other hand, could have rather more of a problem. If the SNP does want to go toe-to-toe with Labour *and* if it can make the breakthrough then where does that the forces of Miliband / Lamont / Murphy / some unknown bod from Holyrood?
The Tories can recover from 10% (and most Scottish subsamples have been recording considerably better scores so even if this poll is accurate, the potential is there), though only to perhaps 20% tops. But the point is that there will always be a centre-right party and without any realistic alternatives (I exclude UKIP for now at least), the Tories are it. In the current Scottish climate, the Tories are also the most clearly Unionist party, which matters.
Likewise, there will always be at least one centre-left party, for which competition is currently far fiercer and none has a divine right to survive..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5__VFxOI99E&feature=youtu.be&t=1m2s
Why? They've only been in opposition for five years after a long period in power, culminating in an economic clustercuddle. There's no reason at all they should be 20% ahead.
That said, Exeter is more pro-Labour than you'd expect a prosperous Southern city, surrounded by a sea of blue, to be.
They also want to give devomax that every one promised and it is Labour who are dragging their heels over the matter for their own ends (as usual).
A Labour wipe out in Scotland would be exactly what they deserve.
Tory MP: "We thought we'd either save the Union or kill Miliband's chances of power. The MORI poll suggests we won twice over."
Tories: in Government
Labour: in Opposition
A massive SNP result, independence back on the agenda, a minority Miliband government, a few Green and UKIP MPs, and the final demolition of the House of Lords with some sort of creeping, irreversible adoption of PR across local elections and the second chamber and beyond would be my favoured scenario.
The unionists might not have woken up to the general election yet. I'd be surprised to see nationalist support to go that much higher than the 45% achieved in the Indy ref, so the SNP feel about 6-7% too high here.
I'd expect something like SNP 45%, Lab 26%, Con 16%, and Lib Dems 5% (about right) and Greens maybe 4-5%, so around a 15% swing from Labour to the SNP across Scotland.
So any Labour seat with a majority <30% vulnerable to the SNP, particularly in YES areas.
Lab have wasted 4 years and still have nothing to offer - this is the harvest.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/oct/21/icm-poll-data-labour-conservatives
still laughing at Labour wipe out, the idiots will still campaign against the Toories as the Nats kick their asses and consign them to oblivion.
Spot on IMO.
2. Being in government to clear up Labour's mess has meant the Tories and Lib Dems taking decisions that have not necessarily gone down well with the electorate.
3. Being in coalition has meant that the wing votes of both parties (i.e. Tory right and LD left) are disappointed with their party in government. Labour has picked up about 8% of the electorate from the Lib Dems. Without them, they'd be on about 22-25%.
JWisemann said:Just for the record I'm a non-aligned leftish London voter who can't stand the Westminster establishment, including Labour, and who believes that the only conceivable decent future for this country requires the dismantling of FPTP, so I'd be over the moon at SLAB being hoist on their own petard for getting into bed with the Tories by a result even approaching this.
A massive SNP result, independence back on the agenda, a minority Miliband government, a few Green and UKIP MPs, and the final demolition of the House of Lords with some sort of creeping, irreversible adoption of PR across local elections and the second chamber and beyond would be my favoured scenario.
time to harvest turnips.
That will bring their GB average artificially down in GB opinion polls. Does that mean they are doing better in England than the polls therefore show?
Surely even if the SNP won (say) 37 Scottish seats they couldn't just declare independence?
I simply can't understand what they're playing at. It's beyond logic/accidental failure. I can only assume that Labour HQ doesn't know what it stands for anymore so the questions remain unanswered.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/407722/Liverpool-Mario-Balotelli-House-of-Commons-drugs-debate
Really, Plato, you are going to doubt other posters who claimed to be non-aligned? You of all people?
I had not even begun to consider that.
However, there are a few UKIP targets on Labour's target list which will definitely make their task harder, such as Thurrock, Waveney, Great Yarmouth, perhaps - even South Thanet.
The notion of me ever voting Labour 3x again is beyond my capacity. Really, Plato, you are going to doubt other posters who claimed to be non-aligned? You of all people?
I'd be surprised too - I expect about 15-18, maybe even 20, for the Tories (impact of indyref). It's SLAB and the LDs who will however do badly because so many of their voters went for yes and because of their getting so publicly in bed with the Tories over the last two years, in Labour's case after spending decades going on about Mrs Thatcher and the evil Tories. A bit like James VI and I suddenly declaring for Satanism, really, and about as useful for their credibility in normal Westminster politics where Labour is supposed to oppose the Tories.
I'm seeing reports of Mr Murphy hugging Dame Annabella Goldie [previous Scottish Tory leader] at the Clydebank indyref count. No idea if they are true - I had a look for photos on the net - but the reports [edit: not necessarily specific to that particular Tory] date from indyref time and if it is true it sums the issue up very nicely.
Of course, Aurelian was one of the greatest emperors and generals in Roman history. Ed Miliband he was not.
*Or is it Captain Black? You're not ex-SPECTRUM, are you?
Your comment on Goldie is pathetic she has her views on Scotland not ebola.
Plato
Looks like you were seduced by Tony Blair.
Firstly, 45% of Scots voted for independence just six weeks ago. That implies that the SNP pretty much have 45% on their side as a matter of principle.
Secondly, the aggregated subsamples from several pollsters regularly give a Westminster VI ball park figure of 40%.
Thirdly, the Labour subsamples from several pollsters have Labour mid 20s.
Fourth, the Tories are largely around 16-19 from the same aggregates, though Ashcroft has an 11
Fifth, the Survation Scots Poll was taken immediately post referendum before any unwind, so is easily discountable.
Sixth, Panelbase fieldwork was 29/9-1/10, so it was soon after Ed's conference speech but pre-dated Cameron's, predated Lamont's resignation and hadn't had time for the full effect of Westminster delay and EV4EL politics to feed in.
It is also worth noting that TNS did a trust poll on devolution in mid October. Scots trust in Ed Miliband to deliver was 1%. Even Cameron scored higher.
Devomax should mean the Westminster mix becomes much less relevant. The Scottish Parliament (which would be under an ironlike SNP grip) controls almost all the issues which affect the daily lives of scots; the Tory bogeyman is demoted from a baby-eating fiend to the pesky imp who hides one sock from every pair.
Remind me who initiated Devomax? Chortle.
https://bigrab.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/2550733099_02b51551ee1.jpg?w=468&h=310
They seem to have won votes from left right and centre by being all things to all men, plus charismatic leadership - just like Tony Blair did.
I think my decision to formally join the Tories was a big thing. I will leave them again - but I thought it was necessary as a show of support in an age of declining engagement.
Plato
Looks like you were seduced by Tony Blair.
I don't think it's unreasonable to consider a Miliband government polling around 15% by October 2016, possibly in fourth place.
But, in general, the city's economy is private-sector dominated, based on financial services, retailing, insurance, law, tourism, with several large business parks. It's a very nice city, with some real gems of architecture, like the Cathedral and Square, Guildhall, Rougemont Castle and Gardens, ancient churches dedicated to saints you've never heard of, medieval walls, Georgian and Regency Terraces, and the Quayside. And that's after bombing and redevelopment took their toll. Pre-War, it was like Edinburgh on a smaller scale.
If I had to make a guess, I'd say White, working class voters here have stayed loyal to Labour, in a way that's unusual in the South these days (there's no big ethnic minority population).
http://blindgossip.com/?p=66324
The most common guess is a recently wed charmer
If independence does occur expect fierce argument over whether England or Scotland is lumbered with it.
Mr. Black, monster in magenta?