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Leaving the ECHR would cost the Tories dear – politicalbetting.com
Leaving the ECHR would cost the Tories dear – politicalbetting.com
Some senior Tories are pressing Sunak to include a commitment to leave the European Commission on Human Rights in the party’s next election manifesto. This follows the decisions of the court on the government’s Rwanda plans.
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(By the way, I see we've had calls for one of those over Letby.)
So, after a fashion, I could investigate myself.
Shit provides a useful service in getting rid of waste and toxins.
A bit like Cameron included a Brexit referendum in his 2015 manifesto.
They can then shout at Starmer for the next 5 years every time there’s a migration or criminal justice issue, like they used to shout about the EU but now can’t.
With apologies to Terry Jones and Arthur Lowe.
(On topic, part of Sunak's problem is that he can't do this without blowing up the Windsor Protocol, which is currently about the only thing he will be able to point to in decades time and say "look, I did that as Prime Minister". Another part is that some of his current supporters really really want to reform ECHR into nothingness. And then there are those who enjoyed the 2016 campaign and think they can get a similar rush from ECHRxit.)
Sunak is about shoring up the stay-at-homes, RefUK etc with these sort of policies. His strategy with the more genteel Tories will be that he and Hunt are numerate.
Hard to ride both horses, of course, but there isn't really a single message for both important sets of voters.
There's a metaphor for politcs right now; the toilet is blocked, the plumber is on their way (but won't actually be here for ages), meanwhile it's a warm day and the smell is getting everywhere.
Low bar admittedly.
Anyone recognise this magnificent machine that I’ve just seen on Marlborough High Street?
He is undoubtedly the turd.
Around £14 per person though, for 15 hours from Kiev to Lviv. It’s going to be fun night!
There is no need to leave the ECHR to get Rwanda through - in the recent past, the Court ruled that we needed to let prisoners vote, and we didn't. Afaicr we passed a law making an exception. We're still in the ECHR and nobody has chucked us out for doing what we did. We can surely do the same on Rwanda very easily.
Geopolitics
Resentment makes the world go round
From Donald Trump to the Brics, a feeling of exclusion from the in-crowd drives political actors
JANAN GANESH"
https://www.ft.com/content/ffe9b555-fd6f-483c-90d2-6b2926351566
https://twitter.com/ShelbyTalcott/status/1694011984230883731
Originally thought it was schmutz on my screen but there is a fly on Mike Pence's head here
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1694020700800004238/photo/1
We can't catch everyone on the boats - lack of police / border force
We don't have anywhere to securely house them whilst we process their claims - no Tory wants asylum seekers in their constituency in houses / a hotel / a disused army base / a barge
We don't have anyone to process their claims, or capacity in the courts to formally reject any claims which get processed and are a no
We can't find a way under UK law to bypass the courts and just send people to Rwanda
We can't send people to Rwanda because Rwanda cannot accept them
No wonder they want to blame the ECHR as the reason why their crayon scribbles policy is failing. But remember, compared to this robust, well considered and ruthlessly executed triumph of a policy, Labour has no plan.
So if you vote Labour we could have all kinds of fiascos, like boats coming in record numbers, or children being abducted from their accommodation, or an absurdly expensive and not remotely big enough barge full of the pox, or a claim backlog growing larger and larger and larger, and actual civil disorder outside asylum places. So people Must vote Conservative to avoid all that happening.
This is first first class by the way, the most expensive bed on the train. There’s also shared cabins and regular seated carriages, for those who really enjoy flying long-haul economy and want to replicate the experience!
Off for a walk shortly, let’s see how much vodka costs from the buffet car. (Only joking, it cost $6 a litre from the supermarket earlier!)
And what happens after leaving the ECHR? The UN? What happens when there’s nothing else to leave?
These morons want a gammon flavoured North Korea.
Pleased to say that air quality has vastly improved in Seattle and across western Washington (ditto western Oregon, also Vancouver Island and Lower Mainland of British Columbia).
This thanks to push of marine air off North Pacific aided by remnants of former Hurricane Hilary.
Last night AQI for Sea was rated "unhealthy for sensitive groups", while this AM it is on the good side of "good" (under 25).
East of the Cascades, slow improvement, with Tri-Cities air quality now rated "moderate" and Spokane heading that direction. However, number of wild fires still raging and only partly contained in Spokane County remain a big problem, along with fires near Wenatchee and along the US-Canadian border north of Grand Coulee, which are (so far) keeping air mainly "unhealthy" in and around Wenatchee, Chelan and Yakima.
As long as the entire Pacific Northwest remains dry and hotter than average, the danger of wild fires remains high. With these ranging from urban and suburban brush fires,. to forest fires over sizable acreages.
So we ain't out of the woods yet!
Just for a bit of fun, looked up the recently released "religion brought up in" stats for Census 2021 on the NISRA website. @HYUFD may be interested (horrified?) that his beloved County Antrim has lost its overall Protestant majority (rather a plurality now), only County Down currently has an outright Protestant majority. https://build.nisra.gov.uk/en/custom/pivotdata?d=PEOPLE&r=data&v=COUNTY_NI&v=RELIGION_BELONG_TO_OR_BROUGHT_UP_IN_DVO&p=1
Long distance train journeys I find either really fun - some of the best, most meditative, most colourful travel out there - or really uncomfortable and boring. A lot seems to be down to how much space there is to walk around and how good the onboard catering is, if any. Plus the views, but I would say they are secondary as you generally get better ones from the road.
The current behavior of the Italian Government as posted on here yesterday (I apologise I forget who posted it) regarding Gay parents seems to me the perfect example of where the ECHR should be getting involved. I am sorry that they do not appear to have done so yet.
Needless to say we should not be leaving the ECHR. It am saddened that ony a minority (albeit by a couple of points) agree with me.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead is twenty-five percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 25% (-4)
Lab 50% (+4)
Lib Dem 9% (-3)
Other 17% (+4)
Fieldwork: 17th-21st August 2023
Sample: 1,520 GB adults
(Changes from 9th-11th August 2023)
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1694025320628728128
Red Wall VI (6 August):
Labour 53% (+4)
Conservative 28% (–)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-2)
Green 4% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 6 August
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1694016579598745708
I don't think you can make generalisations about the people involved. Some maintain their innocence, like Letby, and it would be unreasonable not to account for the possibility that over time they will be vindicated, like many before them.
A slightly different scenario but I thought the whole life sentence given to Wayne Couzens was unfortunate after he confessed his guilt and co-operated because of the precedent it sets. Anyone in his position accused of similar crimes will know what is coming and has no interest at all in co-operating with the police or prosecutors.
Very long minimum sentences and whole life orders seem to me like politics and not justice.
Starmer leads Sunak by 9%.
At this moment, which of the following do Red Wall voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (20 August)
Starmer 42% (+6)
Sunak 33% (+1)
Changes +/- 6 August
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1694019148823638139
It originally had twin engines, which was then banned for the land-speed record and work on it stopped
It was found by a British enthusiast and has been restored with a 1917 Isotta-Franschini 16.5L V6-V airship engine
Apparently it does 127mph
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/1905-fiat-isotta-fraschini-has-a-wwi-airship-engine-and-you-can-tell-104132.html
BigJohn/Big G please explain.
Absolutely that is a prime case where the ECHR should be involved surely, but there's plenty of other cases where it should but did not.
Its worth remembering that prior to last year's latest invasion of Ukraine, that Russia were full members of the ECHR. I hardly feel like January 2022's Russia was a representative democracy with full, free and fair elections and a free press.
The ECHR is a good idea in theory, but in practice is about as much use as telling teens to 'pull out' to avoid pregnancy and STDs.
agrees) send Afghans to Rwanda or hang serial killers like Letby or dissenters like Starmer she should be perfectly entitled thus to do. She can't do any of those things if the ECHR decides to deny her the privilege.
Not my view, but then I didn't vote Leave.
Reminds a bit of how tax cuts for rich people are, remarkably, always going to be the correct option, even when tax cuts for others are a 'Good idea, but not the right thing right now'.
I'm ambivalent as to whether we stay or go, either are legitimate choices. Out of sheer inertia I'd probably say we should stay in it, but there's no philosophical reason why its better than a domestic Supreme Court.
I don't particulary advocate leaving it, nor do I care if we do. It is a pointless thing signifying nothing
Yougov earlier this year had 44% of Conservative voters wanting to leave the ECHR, 35% to remain in it. Leavers also wanted to leave the ECHR 45% to 33% even if 55% of voters overall wanted to stay in the ECHR.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/02/07/ce218/1
If the courts reject the government's deport migrants to Rwanda and offshore barges policy due to incompatibility with the ECHR I expect the percentage of voters wanting to leave it would also rise
I do not think for one minute Sunak favours this right wing demand as he has put a lot into improving relationships with the EU and UVDL which at a stroke would be lost
Plus of course most polls show more Catholics and religious nones want to stay in the UK than Protestants want to leave it
- When they go through pretty country lowlands too much of the journey is spent in cutting when you can't see anything
- They usually don't give you much of a sense of a city. Ether you're in deep cuttings or going through industrial suburbs, or in some countries like Italy usually skirting the city centre and stopping at a parkway
- In the mountains they spend half the time in and out of tunnels making photography frustrating
- In countries like India they usually don't go through the villages in the same way roads do
The best thing with travelling by road for scenery is you can make detours, stop whenever you fancy to get out and look around, and drive right through the heart of towns and cities.
But that's of course not true of motorways. The dullest journey I regularly make is the autoroute down from Calais to Burgundy. Almost unrelenting boringness. Though the TGV isn't much better to be fair.
For countries that are prepared to disregard human rights it offers little to no protection as its so easily ignored. Hence how Putin's Russia could be full members of the Court as recently as January last year and would have remained so even without any free press or free elections had they not re-invaded Ukraine.
For countries that are prepared to respect human rights then it can be a block to what people vote for or interpret things in novel ways.
But as a safeguard, its not a particularly good one. Domestically ensuring human rights are respected is far better a safeguard.
No reason why we couldn't revert IMHO to a modernised version of what Churchill had, which would be an equivalent Convention enforced in the UK Supreme Court.
I don't particularly think we should leave the Convention, but if we were to do so I wouldn't object either, so long as we had a domestic alternative put in its place. I'm agnostic over it.
AM "One thing is looking pretty clear and that [is that] the days of Labour leads of 20% plus are no longer there and we are seeing a little bit of a recovery in the LDs totals"
PM: Cons 25% Labour 50% LibDems 9%: Labour lead 25%
Sub 100 evens