The LAB lead is getting narrower – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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If this trend had continued, he probably would have got a worse result than Brown.CorrectHorseBat said:Tony Blair doesn't resign and leads the Labour Party into the 2010 election.
What is the result?
1997: 13,518,167 votes
2001: 10,724,953 votes
2005: 9,552,436 votes0 -
Well offtopic, but this is going to be ‘fun’. A very much Soviet-era overnight sleeper train from Kiev to Lviv.
On one hand it was £7 per person, first class, based on two sharing a private cabin. On the other hand there’s no aircon, and only one toilet between a couple of hundred of us for the next 15 hours!
Perhaps some photos to follow…1 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66578698
May I be the first to say the instinct of the system, will be to turn regulation of mangers into a stick to beat the non-compliant with. Just as with complaints about doctors to the GMC.2 -
Wages ! Have ONS data going back to Jan 2000.
Had a first look at the data.
The median wage is *completely unchanged* in real terms since May 2010. There was a ~ 14.4% real terms rise in the 2000s.
** Up 0.05% relative to CPI, down 0.9% relative to CPIH. **2 -
No use as a metric. Zero need for lining.Malmesbury said:
Norwegian Blue Parrots?Carnyx said:
A more precise metric would be pet shop sales of budgie and parrot cage linings, or reduction thereof.Stuartinromford said:
Though university seats are tending more Labour than Lib Dem these days (Cambridge, Portsmouth S etc). I suspect that cities with cathedrals but not really universities (Winchester, whatever Ely is calling itself this time) are a better steer for Lib Dem target seats now.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
It would be interesting to know where the parties see themselves targetting. Presumably that ought to be becoming clearer from weight of thinly-disguised campaign literature. A heatmap of people buying larger recycling bins?0 -
Very interesting. I|'ve been saying for a while that while Tory defeat is almost certain, the scale of it could be down to the ability of the LibDems to find the resources - partly money, but mostly personnel - for the number of potential targets they have.Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil0 -
I’ll agree with you, that the chance of any of the senior managers encountering a genuinely career-ending event, will be slim to none.Malmesbury said:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66578698
May I be the first to say the instinct of the system, will be to turn regulation of mangers into a stick to beat the non-compliant with. Just as with complaints about doctors to the GMC.0 -
Not of the toilet please.Sandpit said:Well offtopic, but this is going to be ‘fun’. A very much Soviet-era overnight sleeper train from Kiev to Lviv.
On one hand it was £7 per person, first class, based on two sharing a private cabin. On the other hand there’s no aircon, and only one toilet between a couple of hundred of us for the next 15 hours!
Perhaps some photos to follow…5 -
Although some of the behind-the-scenes conversations from within Fox that have come out show that Carlson really doesn't like Trump. But for both of them the main driver is how they can use the other to further their own aims.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Carlson and Musk are indeed taking advantage . . . of every opportunity for demonstrating that they've got their tongues, minds and (what passes for) souls firmly wedged between Trump's ass-cheeks.Sandpit said:
The fun bit was in Tucker’s contract with Fox, which says he’s not allowed to work for any other network, that Youtube and Rumble accounts also belong to the network - but that his Twitter account is his own.Pulpstar said:
Smart move by Trump, Elon and Tucker.Sandpit said:Not a total surprise, but cat among the pigeons:
Trump won’t be attending the Republican debate tomorrow (nor seemingly any of the Republican debates), but has an interview with Tucker Carlson scheduled against it, live on Twitter.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=P5kJ_FwW9C8
Fox never thought that Twitter would become a place for long-form video, and Carlson and Musk are taking advantage.
For present fun and (they hope) future profit.0 -
Civil war in the Labour Party, a split party loses power for a generation. Blair not resigning was impossible at the time. I think he thought he would willingly hand over power to Brown in the second term, but the aphrodisiac of power was too strong. Either that or he just played Brown all along, and never intended to step aside.CorrectHorseBat said:Tony Blair doesn't resign and leads the Labour Party into the 2010 election.
What is the result?1 -
I have no special knowledge or experience of criminal law but pay a lot of attention to the criminal justice system mainly after reading 'the secret barrister' a few years ago. What it seems to me is that you have cases where it is extremely clear cut and others where there is room for doubt. Even just digesting the reporting as an observer I think the latter applies here and I would not be surprised if there are appeals in the future that seek to unpick the evidence that forms the basis of the convictions. Obviously if these appeals are successful then the narrative about the situation will change completely as we have seen recently with other cases.Nigelb said:
Could it ?darkage said:
The comment I would make on this situation is that the decision of the jury could well have gone the other way (they were deliberating for a hundred hours?) in which case the situation would now look completely different, there would be different heroes and villains in the news stories that follow.viewcode said:
I suspect I will be saying this again and again, but this is your perennial reminder that the alert was raised successfully, not by managers, but by an epidemiological unit based in Oxford. This one[1]. It is people such as they, and not fucking [redacteds] trust fund [redacteds] like "Spiked" who will solve this problem, and they get paid a shit-ton less. Bureaucratic mind my fucking arse.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
[1] https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/mbrrace-uk
Remember they were considering a large number of separate charges - for some of which they did not in the end decide there was sufficient evidence to convict.
It seems more likely that what took the time was the charges for which the evidence was not as clear cut. And it's pretty (very ?) unlikely they would have returned not guilty verdicts verdicts for all the charges.
I would add that I think it is very unhelpful that she was given a whole life sentence because it is now highly unlikely that she will ever confess to the crimes with no possible pathway to redemption. Instead it creates an incentive for her to pursue appeals even if she is guilty with all the trauma and uncertainty that would occur if she was successful and got released.
0 -
You’re not thinking like a proper ‘crat.Carnyx said:
No use as a metric. Zero need for lining.Malmesbury said:
Norwegian Blue Parrots?Carnyx said:
A more precise metric would be pet shop sales of budgie and parrot cage linings, or reduction thereof.Stuartinromford said:
Though university seats are tending more Labour than Lib Dem these days (Cambridge, Portsmouth S etc). I suspect that cities with cathedrals but not really universities (Winchester, whatever Ely is calling itself this time) are a better steer for Lib Dem target seats now.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
It would be interesting to know where the parties see themselves targetting. Presumably that ought to be becoming clearer from weight of thinly-disguised campaign literature. A heatmap of people buying larger recycling bins?
You could start a whole department of Decorative Avian Pet Enclosure Infrastructure, spend £37 billion a year, get a peerage etc.
That all the parrots died is a minor detail - and there’s always an enquiry to cover that up.1 -
Can I remind you of this brilliant article about Aberfan - https://www.cyclefree.co.uk/the-price-of-indifference/Malmesbury said:
The Aberfan disaster aftermath was fascinating in the way that those running the NCB behaved exactly as the old mine owners would have done.Stuartinromford said:
Though spiked saying that anyone telling them what to do is inherently evil isn't that surprising.david_herdson said:
Because Genghis Khan and Tamerlane were well-known for their memos.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
Bureaucracy is value-neutral. Indeed, it's efficiency-neutral - you can have effective bureaucracies and hopeless ones.
But on the main point, while an efficient bureaucracy will make evil intent more effective - see the Nazis and the NKVD for obvious example - an efficient bureaucracy will also make a benevolent state more effective too, with justice administered, services delivered responsively and a leadership in touch with the people.
Presumably the original quote re 'the bureaucratic mind' is one that simply processes; where the process is an end in itself; where it is stripped of humanity and judgement and where people and their refusal to conform with systems and policies (or even predictions) get in the way of 'delivering outcomes'. Certainly, evil can make great use of such mindsets but I disagree with the inference that that's the essence of bureaucracy.
There is a kind of evil that is facilitated by bureaucracy, and in some ways it's worse than evil driven by passion or need. It's why the film Conspiracy was so chilling.
Despite being explicitly drawn from the miners unions and their political representatives and being supposed to act in the interests of the miners and their families.
5 -
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."4 -
He should have been more ruthless and moved Brown out of the Treasury after his first term.turbotubbs said:
Civil war in the Labour Party, a split party loses power for a generation. Blair not resigning was impossible at the time. I think he thought he would willingly hand over power to Brown in the second term, but the aphrodisiac of power was too strong. Either that or he just played Brown all along, and never intended to step aside.CorrectHorseBat said:Tony Blair doesn't resign and leads the Labour Party into the 2010 election.
What is the result?0 -
...
I think that's broadly correct. It is a feature of all bureaucracies (certainly all that I can think of) that they are funded (and therefore motivated) indirectly, not by the users of their service. That is an inherent flaw that leads to a whole set of undesirable behaviours by the bureaucrats. If your funding comes from above, it behoves you to behave like you need more of it to do your job. I am not sure it leads to evil, but it is certainly often very counter-productive. Creating internal competition as the Nazis did is (whether by accident or design) a way of overcoming what seems an inevitable progression otherwise.david_herdson said:
Here's a thought. Maybe an effective bureaucracy can't be an efficient one, in that it *needs* internal competition and the fear of failure in order to work? You can't have a person or unit or division acting as institutional blockers because you go round them and they find themselves redundant. But internal competition inevitably means duplication and overheads.Malmesbury said:
The pile of competing bureaucracies in the Nazi and Soviet states certainly seemed to operate on the basis of bureaucracy for its own sake.david_herdson said:
Well, we can argue about the interaction of efficiency vs effectiveness, or of the efficiencies of individual agencies vs the system overall (or indeed about whether that was a political vs bureaucracy question) but in terms of knowing what was what and where, and - once the politics was decided - what to do and when, and then doing it, I'd argue the Nazi state functioned tragically efficiently.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't think I agree with this. I don't know about the NKVD, but the Nazi's bureaucracy was famously inefficient, with many rival organisations with overlapping responsibilities. However, this was a secret of its effectiveness, because rival agencies sought to outdo each other.david_herdson said:
Because Genghis Khan and Tamerlane were well-known for their memos.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
Bureaucracy is value-neutral. Indeed, it's efficiency-neutral - you can have effective bureaucracies and hopeless ones.
But on the main point, while an efficient bureaucracy will make evil intent more effective - see the Nazis and the NKVD for obvious example - an efficient bureaucracy will also make a benevolent state more effective too, with justice administered, services delivered responsively and a leadership in touch with the people.
Presumably the original quote re 'the bureaucratic mind' is one that simply processes; where the process is an end in itself; where it is stripped of humanity and judgement and where people and their refusal to conform with systems and policies (or even predictions) get in the way of 'delivering outcomes'. Certainly, evil can make great use of such mindsets but I disagree with the inference that that's the essence of bureaucracy.
The Nazis explicitly modelled their system on Social Darwinism and Working Towards The Leader. The accounts of the infighting in the Soviet space program is also worth looking at.0 -
It confirms *Shock horror* houses hit 8* multiple of wages by March 2004. (4.93 in Jan 2000)Pulpstar said:Wages ! Have ONS data going back to Jan 2000.
Had a first look at the data.
The median wage is *completely unchanged* in real terms since May 2010. There was a ~ 14.4% real terms rise in the 2000s.
** Up 0.05% relative to CPI, down 0.9% relative to CPIH. **
Since then they've been in a corridor of 6.9 to 9.2 - currently @ 8.2.
1 -
Yes. It was lying there. I walked straight past it whilst musing "if only there was a clever play on words I could use here".Luckyguy1983 said:
Or should that be a 'banned'?viewcode said:I just found out what Isam's twitter is! All I need now is RodCrosby's and MrEd's and I can form a band...
1 -
Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.2
-
The offences were so serious, and in such numbers, that the judge had very little choice in the sentence.darkage said:
I have no special knowledge or experience of criminal law but pay a lot of attention to the criminal justice system mainly after reading 'the secret barrister' a few years ago. What it seems to me is that you have cases where it is extremely clear cut and others where there is room for doubt. Even just digesting the reporting as an observer I think the latter applies here and I would not be surprised if there are appeals in the future that seek to unpick the evidence that forms the basis of the convictions. Obviously if these appeals are successful then the narrative about the situation will change completely as we have seen recently with other cases.Nigelb said:
Could it ?darkage said:
The comment I would make on this situation is that the decision of the jury could well have gone the other way (they were deliberating for a hundred hours?) in which case the situation would now look completely different, there would be different heroes and villains in the news stories that follow.viewcode said:
I suspect I will be saying this again and again, but this is your perennial reminder that the alert was raised successfully, not by managers, but by an epidemiological unit based in Oxford. This one[1]. It is people such as they, and not fucking [redacteds] trust fund [redacteds] like "Spiked" who will solve this problem, and they get paid a shit-ton less. Bureaucratic mind my fucking arse.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
[1] https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/mbrrace-uk
Remember they were considering a large number of separate charges - for some of which they did not in the end decide there was sufficient evidence to convict.
It seems more likely that what took the time was the charges for which the evidence was not as clear cut. And it's pretty (very ?) unlikely they would have returned not guilty verdicts verdicts for all the charges.
I would add that I think it is very unhelpful that she was given a whole life sentence because it is now highly unlikely that she will ever confess to the crimes with no possible pathway to redemption. Instead it creates an incentive for her to pursue appeals even if she is guilty with all the trauma and uncertainty that would occur if she was successful and got released.
Would ordering her to serve a minimum of 50 years have made a difference, except to try and have her lawyer bargain it down to 30 years on the basis of her age and immaturity, accepting responsibility etc., finishing up with the parents of these children potentially seeing her released in their own lifetimes?
I suspect that she’ll have an awful lot of counselling over the coming weeks, months, and years, and can hopefully bring herself to understand the gravity of what she’s done.0 -
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:1 -
He'd gone 're-order this world around us' by that point. The UKT was a pimple.williamglenn said:
He should have been more ruthless and moved Brown out of the Treasury after his first term.turbotubbs said:
Civil war in the Labour Party, a split party loses power for a generation. Blair not resigning was impossible at the time. I think he thought he would willingly hand over power to Brown in the second term, but the aphrodisiac of power was too strong. Either that or he just played Brown all along, and never intended to step aside.CorrectHorseBat said:Tony Blair doesn't resign and leads the Labour Party into the 2010 election.
What is the result?2 -
The former environment secretary George Eustice has been told to ask permission from the post-government jobs watchdog every time his new consultancy firm takes on a client to avoid giving them unfair access to his former department.
The senior Conservative MP, who is standing down at the next election, was given permission by the advisory committee on business appointments (Acoba) to set up a company to advise businesses on farming technology and the water sector.
However, the watchdog said there was a “significant risk” that clients could “be considered to gain” from his insight of government and “inherent risks” that the former minister could give them “unfair access” to government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/22/watchdog-gives-george-eustice-strict-rules-for-new-consultancy-firm?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter1 -
Hang on a sec - what is the point of departure on this alt history scenario? How about the Granita meeting where Gordon Brown makes it clear to Tony Blair that he has no real interest in the leadership and instead wants the entire focus of government to be external - "Lets transform this country so that its fit for the future" he tells Tony.turbotubbs said:
Civil war in the Labour Party, a split party loses power for a generation. Blair not resigning was impossible at the time. I think he thought he would willingly hand over power to Brown in the second term, but the aphrodisiac of power was too strong. Either that or he just played Brown all along, and never intended to step aside.CorrectHorseBat said:Tony Blair doesn't resign and leads the Labour Party into the 2010 election.
What is the result?
The cracks in the party really started to show after Iraq. Blair was seen as being in the way by Brownites and increasingly as a liability. But in this scenario there isn't an impatient jostling for position. The War Against Terror has been an unexpected diversion, but diversion it is from their ongoing mission to remake Britain.
So I would expect the 2005 result not to be as strong as it was for the LDs. Perhaps a majority of 80-100, with an ongoing programme and no change in the duopoly at the top, a political ying and yang rather than embittered infighting.
We would likely still see a 2010 election to allow to fix the horrors of the GFC, but Blair would absolutely win again, this time with a majority cut to at least 66 or maybe closer to Thatcher in 1979. We already saw the prime timeline Osborne pledged to inflate the growth bubble even faster - match every pound of Labour investment plus additional growth to pay for tax cuts on top. In this alternate timeline what do Cameron and Osbrown have to offer?
The tragedy of that era truly was the Blair Brown spat. Because of it that government did so much to fiddle around the edges of the structural problems in the economy without having the political will to do anything substantial about them.0 -
...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:0 -
Again, you seem to be assuming all the cases are similar in evidential terms.darkage said:
I have no special knowledge or experience of criminal law but pay a lot of attention to the criminal justice system mainly after reading 'the secret barrister' a few years ago. What it seems to me is that you have cases where it is extremely clear cut and others where there is room for doubt. Even just digesting the reporting as an observer I think the latter applies here and I would not be surprised if there are appeals in the future that seek to unpick the evidence that forms the basis of the convictions. Obviously if these appeals are successful then the narrative about the situation will change completely as we have seen recently with other cases.Nigelb said:
Could it ?darkage said:
The comment I would make on this situation is that the decision of the jury could well have gone the other way (they were deliberating for a hundred hours?) in which case the situation would now look completely different, there would be different heroes and villains in the news stories that follow.viewcode said:
I suspect I will be saying this again and again, but this is your perennial reminder that the alert was raised successfully, not by managers, but by an epidemiological unit based in Oxford. This one[1]. It is people such as they, and not fucking [redacteds] trust fund [redacteds] like "Spiked" who will solve this problem, and they get paid a shit-ton less. Bureaucratic mind my fucking arse.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
[1] https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/mbrrace-uk
Remember they were considering a large number of separate charges - for some of which they did not in the end decide there was sufficient evidence to convict.
It seems more likely that what took the time was the charges for which the evidence was not as clear cut. And it's pretty (very ?) unlikely they would have returned not guilty verdicts verdicts for all the charges.
I would add that I think it is very unhelpful that she was given a whole life sentence because it is now highly unlikely that she will ever confess to the crimes with no possible pathway to redemption. Instead it creates an incentive for her to pursue appeals even if she is guilty with all the trauma and uncertainty that would occur if she was successful and got released.
Very obviously - given the jury was unable to reach a guilty verdict on some of the charges - they were not.0 -
With interest rates now triple what we'd grown used to, house prices will continue to fall for a while yet imo.Pulpstar said:
It confirms *Shock horror* houses hit 8* multiple of wages by March 2004. (4.93 in Jan 2000)Pulpstar said:Wages ! Have ONS data going back to Jan 2000.
Had a first look at the data.
The median wage is *completely unchanged* in real terms since May 2010. There was a ~ 14.4% real terms rise in the 2000s.
** Up 0.05% relative to CPI, down 0.9% relative to CPIH. **
Since then they've been in a corridor of 6.9 to 9.2 - currently @ 8.2.0 -
Yes, you'd rather let alleged drug traffickers and money launderers evade justice than admit you may have screwed things up.Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:1 -
Zero real terms wage growth over 13 years. Has any Gov't managed that particular feat before ?1
-
I'd advise you not to make this a key pillar of the rejoin campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, you'd rather let alleged drug traffickers and money launderers evade justice than admit you may have screwed things up.Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:1 -
The Tories love to boast about their record and tell us we should judge them on it. Ok.Pulpstar said:Zero real terms wage growth over 13 years. Has any Gov't managed that particular feat before ?
Failure.1 -
But like Ronnie Biggs, not being able to set foot in fair England again is surely punishment enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, you'd rather let alleged drug traffickers and money launderers evade justice than admit you may have screwed things up.Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:1 -
If inflation and wages carry on going up it could be a soft landing. I think perhaps counterintuitively REALLY getting a grip on inflation is probably the biggest danger to the housing market. Another % increase by Bailey will be COLLAPSO territory.kinabalu said:
With interest rates now triple what we'd grown used to, house prices will continue to fall for a while yet imo.Pulpstar said:
It confirms *Shock horror* houses hit 8* multiple of wages by March 2004. (4.93 in Jan 2000)Pulpstar said:Wages ! Have ONS data going back to Jan 2000.
Had a first look at the data.
The median wage is *completely unchanged* in real terms since May 2010. There was a ~ 14.4% real terms rise in the 2000s.
** Up 0.05% relative to CPI, down 0.9% relative to CPIH. **
Since then they've been in a corridor of 6.9 to 9.2 - currently @ 8.2.1 -
That’s actually progress - recognising there is a potential issue.TheScreamingEagles said:The former environment secretary George Eustice has been told to ask permission from the post-government jobs watchdog every time his new consultancy firm takes on a client to avoid giving them unfair access to his former department.
The senior Conservative MP, who is standing down at the next election, was given permission by the advisory committee on business appointments (Acoba) to set up a company to advise businesses on farming technology and the water sector.
However, the watchdog said there was a “significant risk” that clients could “be considered to gain” from his insight of government and “inherent risks” that the former minister could give them “unfair access” to government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/22/watchdog-gives-george-eustice-strict-rules-for-new-consultancy-firm?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
The irony of 2016.Pulpstar said:Zero real terms wage growth over 13 years. Has any Gov't managed that particular feat before ?
The rubbish wage growth in the runup to the referendum was a cause of the result tipping the way it did. The fallout of the referendum was then a cause of the ongoing rubbish wage growth.0 -
If I wanted to be unkind I'd say that you are missing the point so much that you'd probably miss the floor were you to fall out of bed.Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:4 -
More Albanian Black Cab Drivers.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd advise you not to make this a key pillar of the rejoin campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, you'd rather let alleged drug traffickers and money launderers evade justice than admit you may have screwed things up.Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:0 -
Harsh but fair.Cyclefree said:
If I wanted to be unkind I'd say that you are missing the point so much that you'd probably miss the floor were you to fall out of bed.Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:1 -
You're welcome to say it, I relish a good put down. You're probably right.Cyclefree said:
If I wanted to be unkind I'd say that you are missing the point so much that you'd probably miss the floor were you to fall out of bed.Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:1 -
Don't worry we've got a hundred other things to act as key pillars of the campaign.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd advise you not to make this a key pillar of the rejoin campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, you'd rather let alleged drug traffickers and money launderers evade justice than admit you may have screwed things up.Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:0 -
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
7 -
Wages the same in real terms when Cameron was elected, when we voted for Brexit and now.Stuartinromford said:
The irony of 2016.Pulpstar said:Zero real terms wage growth over 13 years. Has any Gov't managed that particular feat before ?
The rubbish wage growth in the runup to the referendum was a cause of the result tipping the way it did. The fallout of the referendum was then a cause of the ongoing rubbish wage growth.
Date / CPI rebased Jan 2000 / CPIH rebased Jan 2000
May 2010 335 339
Jun 2016 332 335
Jun 2023 335 338
0 -
Judges don't like getting stuff like this, though:Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:
"The German court was not impressed by the reply it received from the UK, which eventually arrived from a police station in Manchester on the last day of the deadline set by the court. The e-mail contained no guarantees, but indicated that the UK was planning to create 20,000 new prison places to overcome overcrowding (which seems rather to concede the point made by the defence lawyer in the first place). There was no specific information on the planned place of detention, but only an indication that the first prison would probably be in the London area."1 -
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheesesTimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
bravo!0 -
Some suggestions above might actually help a crap merchaniser move their crap merchandise. - in the UK.TimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
However IF you're going for bilking aspirational twits on a global scale, stick with the double-barrel monikers.0 -
[applause]TimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
Upscale places (which is where it's at for the Lib Dems these days) have upscale names.
In the recent boundary review, there were complaints from some residents about being moved from Hornchurch and Upminster (mildly eccentric gentlemen's socks) to Romford (enough said) because of the possible effect on the value of their houses.0 -
This passage is relevant to the Letby case and what we were discussing earlier about bureaucracies -Cyclefree said:
Can I remind you of this brilliant article about Aberfan - https://www.cyclefree.co.uk/the-price-of-indifference/Malmesbury said:
The Aberfan disaster aftermath was fascinating in the way that those running the NCB behaved exactly as the old mine owners would have done.Stuartinromford said:
Though spiked saying that anyone telling them what to do is inherently evil isn't that surprising.david_herdson said:
Because Genghis Khan and Tamerlane were well-known for their memos.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
Bureaucracy is value-neutral. Indeed, it's efficiency-neutral - you can have effective bureaucracies and hopeless ones.
But on the main point, while an efficient bureaucracy will make evil intent more effective - see the Nazis and the NKVD for obvious example - an efficient bureaucracy will also make a benevolent state more effective too, with justice administered, services delivered responsively and a leadership in touch with the people.
Presumably the original quote re 'the bureaucratic mind' is one that simply processes; where the process is an end in itself; where it is stripped of humanity and judgement and where people and their refusal to conform with systems and policies (or even predictions) get in the way of 'delivering outcomes'. Certainly, evil can make great use of such mindsets but I disagree with the inference that that's the essence of bureaucracy.
There is a kind of evil that is facilitated by bureaucracy, and in some ways it's worse than evil driven by passion or need. It's why the film Conspiracy was so chilling.
Despite being explicitly drawn from the miners unions and their political representatives and being supposed to act in the interests of the miners and their families.
"It feels like indifference to those on the receiving end. But perhaps its impulse is less the effect on the victims but more a desire to save face by those responsible. The truth about what happened was important to the families. It mattered that this was publicly acknowledged. But this public acknowledgement is something the authorities find hard to accept or admit. (The paradox is that the later it is said the more victims will want something else — compensation or prosecutions — as a substitute.) It is not just concerns about having to pay compensation which drives this, important as it is. It harms an institution’s self-image and, often, of senior people within it. “We got it wrong.” is hard to say. If “we get it wrong” what sort of a “we” are we, really? Avoiding the shame of having to admit that your actions or inactions have been responsible for the suffering of others is what drives this defensiveness and indifference."1 -
Rubbish wage growth in the runup was because any money or productivity worked for to the state in taxes, instead of paying for wage growth, was paying down Brown's deficit. Its easy to pay for public sector wage growth if you're not funding it from taxes, but from borrowing but when it comes time to that borrowing to be paid down, then your wages of today are coming from what should have been future wages.Stuartinromford said:
The irony of 2016.Pulpstar said:Zero real terms wage growth over 13 years. Has any Gov't managed that particular feat before ?
The rubbish wage growth in the runup to the referendum was a cause of the result tipping the way it did. The fallout of the referendum was then a cause of the ongoing rubbish wage growth.
Pre-Covid, the UK's wages per house may not have been different to 2010, but the deficit absolutely was.
Post 2016, nothing in 2016 has restricted wage growth either. The UK has continued with its existing productivity and growth issues. If anything, wages at the bottom of the market are now rising faster than pre-2016 since employers can no longer just import people for minimum wage.0 -
Thirteen wasted years...Pulpstar said:
Wages the same in real terms when Cameron was elected, when we voted for Brexit and now.Stuartinromford said:
The irony of 2016.Pulpstar said:Zero real terms wage growth over 13 years. Has any Gov't managed that particular feat before ?
The rubbish wage growth in the runup to the referendum was a cause of the result tipping the way it did. The fallout of the referendum was then a cause of the ongoing rubbish wage growth.
Date / CPI rebased Jan 2000 / CPIH rebased Jan 2000
May 2010 335 339
Jun 2016 332 335
Jun 2023 335 3381 -
A whole life sentence was inevitable.Sandpit said:
The offences were so serious, and in such numbers, that the judge had very little choice in the sentence.darkage said:
I have no special knowledge or experience of criminal law but pay a lot of attention to the criminal justice system mainly after reading 'the secret barrister' a few years ago. What it seems to me is that you have cases where it is extremely clear cut and others where there is room for doubt. Even just digesting the reporting as an observer I think the latter applies here and I would not be surprised if there are appeals in the future that seek to unpick the evidence that forms the basis of the convictions. Obviously if these appeals are successful then the narrative about the situation will change completely as we have seen recently with other cases.Nigelb said:
Could it ?darkage said:
The comment I would make on this situation is that the decision of the jury could well have gone the other way (they were deliberating for a hundred hours?) in which case the situation would now look completely different, there would be different heroes and villains in the news stories that follow.viewcode said:
I suspect I will be saying this again and again, but this is your perennial reminder that the alert was raised successfully, not by managers, but by an epidemiological unit based in Oxford. This one[1]. It is people such as they, and not fucking [redacteds] trust fund [redacteds] like "Spiked" who will solve this problem, and they get paid a shit-ton less. Bureaucratic mind my fucking arse.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
[1] https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/mbrrace-uk
Remember they were considering a large number of separate charges - for some of which they did not in the end decide there was sufficient evidence to convict.
It seems more likely that what took the time was the charges for which the evidence was not as clear cut. And it's pretty (very ?) unlikely they would have returned not guilty verdicts verdicts for all the charges.
I would add that I think it is very unhelpful that she was given a whole life sentence because it is now highly unlikely that she will ever confess to the crimes with no possible pathway to redemption. Instead it creates an incentive for her to pursue appeals even if she is guilty with all the trauma and uncertainty that would occur if she was successful and got released.
Would ordering her to serve a minimum of 50 years have made a difference, except to try and have her lawyer bargain it down to 30 years on the basis of her age and immaturity, accepting responsibility etc., finishing up with the parents of these children potentially seeing her released in their own lifetimes?
I suspect that she’ll have an awful lot of counselling over the coming weeks, months, and years, and can hopefully bring herself to understand the gravity of what she’s done.
The minimum term is just about eligibility for parole - that's it. It doesn't mean people will actually ever be freed. Life without parole dissuades people from ever admitting guilt because their only way out is by proclaiming innocence.
I realise my views on this are quite unpopular but I think the longest minimum terms should be is about 20 years - beyond which you people can apply for parole, and in any scenario any release is closely supervised and on license. Obviously parole is never inevitable. This is how things are in other European countries AIUI, which often have a better resourced offender management and parole system with lower prison populations and more public confidence in the justice system.1 -
I think there will be a larger than usual number of surprises at the next election, i.e. seats that go against UNS. A few unlikely Lib Dem wins in deep rural counties, possibly one or two from third place. A number of surprise Labour wins in supposedly solid Tory seats on or near the South coast. And several surprise Tory holds in taxi-driver / white van outer suburbs of the fairly prosperous but self-made sort.
The Brexity bits of the suburban South East might be the big hold out. Rich enough to be doing OK under this government, patriotic and anti-woke, lots of retired, not disillusioned by the promises of levelling up, but far enough from the channel not to be annoyed by post-Brexit transport disruption.2 -
But a far higher proportion of the working age population is in work, in 2023 than in 2010. So, real median household income is 11% higher in 2023 than in 2010.Pulpstar said:
Wages the same in real terms when Cameron was elected, when we voted for Brexit and now.Stuartinromford said:
The irony of 2016.Pulpstar said:Zero real terms wage growth over 13 years. Has any Gov't managed that particular feat before ?
The rubbish wage growth in the runup to the referendum was a cause of the result tipping the way it did. The fallout of the referendum was then a cause of the ongoing rubbish wage growth.
Date / CPI rebased Jan 2000 / CPIH rebased Jan 2000
May 2010 335 339
Jun 2016 332 335
Jun 2023 335 338
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending20221 -
.
A really funny clever list. As you say - bravo!Malmesbury said:
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheesesTimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
bravo!0 -
I thought about writing "sic" but felt that would ruin the pun.Chris said:0 -
There are only a handful of people on whole life orders. Changing those to life sentences would have an absolutely negligible effect on the prison system.darkage said:
A whole life sentence was inevitable.Sandpit said:
The offences were so serious, and in such numbers, that the judge had very little choice in the sentence.darkage said:
I have no special knowledge or experience of criminal law but pay a lot of attention to the criminal justice system mainly after reading 'the secret barrister' a few years ago. What it seems to me is that you have cases where it is extremely clear cut and others where there is room for doubt. Even just digesting the reporting as an observer I think the latter applies here and I would not be surprised if there are appeals in the future that seek to unpick the evidence that forms the basis of the convictions. Obviously if these appeals are successful then the narrative about the situation will change completely as we have seen recently with other cases.Nigelb said:
Could it ?darkage said:
The comment I would make on this situation is that the decision of the jury could well have gone the other way (they were deliberating for a hundred hours?) in which case the situation would now look completely different, there would be different heroes and villains in the news stories that follow.viewcode said:
I suspect I will be saying this again and again, but this is your perennial reminder that the alert was raised successfully, not by managers, but by an epidemiological unit based in Oxford. This one[1]. It is people such as they, and not fucking [redacteds] trust fund [redacteds] like "Spiked" who will solve this problem, and they get paid a shit-ton less. Bureaucratic mind my fucking arse.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
[1] https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/mbrrace-uk
Remember they were considering a large number of separate charges - for some of which they did not in the end decide there was sufficient evidence to convict.
It seems more likely that what took the time was the charges for which the evidence was not as clear cut. And it's pretty (very ?) unlikely they would have returned not guilty verdicts verdicts for all the charges.
I would add that I think it is very unhelpful that she was given a whole life sentence because it is now highly unlikely that she will ever confess to the crimes with no possible pathway to redemption. Instead it creates an incentive for her to pursue appeals even if she is guilty with all the trauma and uncertainty that would occur if she was successful and got released.
Would ordering her to serve a minimum of 50 years have made a difference, except to try and have her lawyer bargain it down to 30 years on the basis of her age and immaturity, accepting responsibility etc., finishing up with the parents of these children potentially seeing her released in their own lifetimes?
I suspect that she’ll have an awful lot of counselling over the coming weeks, months, and years, and can hopefully bring herself to understand the gravity of what she’s done.
The minimum term is just about eligibility for parole - that's it. It doesn't mean people will actually ever be freed. Life without parole dissuades people from ever admitting guilt because their only way out is by proclaiming innocence.
I realise my views on this are quite unpopular but I think the longest minimum terms should be is about 20 years - beyond which you people can apply for parole, and in any scenario any release is closely supervised and on license. Obviously parole is never inevitable. This is how things are in other European countries AIUI, which often have a better resourced offender management and parole system with lower prison populations and more public confidence in the justice system.2 -
Judges do expect people to give them a proper reply to their questions.Carnyx said:
Judges don't like getting stuff like this, though:Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:
"The German court was not impressed by the reply it received from the UK, which eventually arrived from a police station in Manchester on the last day of the deadline set by the court. The e-mail contained no guarantees, but indicated that the UK was planning to create 20,000 new prison places to overcome overcrowding (which seems rather to concede the point made by the defence lawyer in the first place). There was no specific information on the planned place of detention, but only an indication that the first prison would probably be in the London area."1 -
Some people are too dangerous to let back into society.darkage said:
A whole life sentence was inevitable.Sandpit said:
The offences were so serious, and in such numbers, that the judge had very little choice in the sentence.darkage said:
I have no special knowledge or experience of criminal law but pay a lot of attention to the criminal justice system mainly after reading 'the secret barrister' a few years ago. What it seems to me is that you have cases where it is extremely clear cut and others where there is room for doubt. Even just digesting the reporting as an observer I think the latter applies here and I would not be surprised if there are appeals in the future that seek to unpick the evidence that forms the basis of the convictions. Obviously if these appeals are successful then the narrative about the situation will change completely as we have seen recently with other cases.Nigelb said:
Could it ?darkage said:
The comment I would make on this situation is that the decision of the jury could well have gone the other way (they were deliberating for a hundred hours?) in which case the situation would now look completely different, there would be different heroes and villains in the news stories that follow.viewcode said:
I suspect I will be saying this again and again, but this is your perennial reminder that the alert was raised successfully, not by managers, but by an epidemiological unit based in Oxford. This one[1]. It is people such as they, and not fucking [redacteds] trust fund [redacteds] like "Spiked" who will solve this problem, and they get paid a shit-ton less. Bureaucratic mind my fucking arse.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
[1] https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/mbrrace-uk
Remember they were considering a large number of separate charges - for some of which they did not in the end decide there was sufficient evidence to convict.
It seems more likely that what took the time was the charges for which the evidence was not as clear cut. And it's pretty (very ?) unlikely they would have returned not guilty verdicts verdicts for all the charges.
I would add that I think it is very unhelpful that she was given a whole life sentence because it is now highly unlikely that she will ever confess to the crimes with no possible pathway to redemption. Instead it creates an incentive for her to pursue appeals even if she is guilty with all the trauma and uncertainty that would occur if she was successful and got released.
Would ordering her to serve a minimum of 50 years have made a difference, except to try and have her lawyer bargain it down to 30 years on the basis of her age and immaturity, accepting responsibility etc., finishing up with the parents of these children potentially seeing her released in their own lifetimes?
I suspect that she’ll have an awful lot of counselling over the coming weeks, months, and years, and can hopefully bring herself to understand the gravity of what she’s done.
The minimum term is just about eligibility for parole - that's it. It doesn't mean people will actually ever be freed. Life without parole dissuades people from ever admitting guilt because their only way out is by proclaiming innocence.
I realise my views on this are quite unpopular but I think the longest minimum terms should be is about 20 years - beyond which you people can apply for parole, and in any scenario any release is closely supervised and on license. Obviously parole is never inevitable. This is how things are in other European countries AIUI, which often have a better resourced offender management and parole system with lower prison populations and more public confidence in the justice system.0 -
The Liberal/Alliance almost won Newcastle-under-Lyme in a by-election in 1986. Labour held the seat by just 799 votes.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Newcastle-under-Lyme_by-election2 -
Granita is now a upper-midmarket ladieswear shop.RochdalePioneers said:
Hang on a sec - what is the point of departure on this alt history scenario? How about the Granita meeting where Gordon Brown makes it clear to Tony Blair that he has no real interest in the leadership and instead wants the entire focus of government to be external - "Lets transform this country so that its fit for the future" he tells Tony.turbotubbs said:
Civil war in the Labour Party, a split party loses power for a generation. Blair not resigning was impossible at the time. I think he thought he would willingly hand over power to Brown in the second term, but the aphrodisiac of power was too strong. Either that or he just played Brown all along, and never intended to step aside.CorrectHorseBat said:Tony Blair doesn't resign and leads the Labour Party into the 2010 election.
What is the result?
The cracks in the party really started to show after Iraq. Blair was seen as being in the way by Brownites and increasingly as a liability. But in this scenario there isn't an impatient jostling for position. The War Against Terror has been an unexpected diversion, but diversion it is from their ongoing mission to remake Britain.
So I would expect the 2005 result not to be as strong as it was for the LDs. Perhaps a majority of 80-100, with an ongoing programme and no change in the duopoly at the top, a political ying and yang rather than embittered infighting.
We would likely still see a 2010 election to allow to fix the horrors of the GFC, but Blair would absolutely win again, this time with a majority cut to at least 66 or maybe closer to Thatcher in 1979. We already saw the prime timeline Osborne pledged to inflate the growth bubble even faster - match every pound of Labour investment plus additional growth to pay for tax cuts on top. In this alternate timeline what do Cameron and Osbrown have to offer?
The tragedy of that era truly was the Blair Brown spat. Because of it that government did so much to fiddle around the edges of the structural problems in the economy without having the political will to do anything substantial about them.
New Labour, New Dressing.0 -
.
Not if he's wearing posh wellies.Chris said:0 -
I was gazing down the list of constituencies to find the roughest sounding. Romford is obviously one. Boston and Skegness another. Could Romford be a classy brand? Perhaps yes: expensive cycling gears. "I've invested in Romfords - much smoother than the old Shimanos and I find they rarely slip".Stuartinromford said:
[applause]TimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
Upscale places (which is where it's at for the Lib Dems these days) have upscale names.
In the recent boundary review, there were complaints from some residents about being moved from Hornchurch and Upminster (mildly eccentric gentlemen's socks) to Romford (enough said) because of the possible effect on the value of their houses.0 -
gearsTimS said:
I was gazing down the list of constituencies to find the roughest sounding. Romford is obviously one. Boston and Skegness another. Could Romford be a classy brand? Perhaps yes: expensive cycling gears. "I've invested in Romfords - much smoother than the old Shimanos and I find they rarely slip".Stuartinromford said:
[applause]TimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
Upscale places (which is where it's at for the Lib Dems these days) have upscale names.
In the recent boundary review, there were complaints from some residents about being moved from Hornchurch and Upminster (mildly eccentric gentlemen's socks) to Romford (enough said) because of the possible effect on the value of their houses.
Thou has't summoned the demons from the deeps, foolish mortal....0 -
Self preservation - a key motivating factor in all bureaucracies. And in life, but for most, self-preservation comes from selling a product or service that others want to buy.Cyclefree said:
This passage is relevant to the Letby case and what we were discussing earlier about bureaucracies -Cyclefree said:
Can I remind you of this brilliant article about Aberfan - https://www.cyclefree.co.uk/the-price-of-indifference/Malmesbury said:
The Aberfan disaster aftermath was fascinating in the way that those running the NCB behaved exactly as the old mine owners would have done.Stuartinromford said:
Though spiked saying that anyone telling them what to do is inherently evil isn't that surprising.david_herdson said:
Because Genghis Khan and Tamerlane were well-known for their memos.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
Bureaucracy is value-neutral. Indeed, it's efficiency-neutral - you can have effective bureaucracies and hopeless ones.
But on the main point, while an efficient bureaucracy will make evil intent more effective - see the Nazis and the NKVD for obvious example - an efficient bureaucracy will also make a benevolent state more effective too, with justice administered, services delivered responsively and a leadership in touch with the people.
Presumably the original quote re 'the bureaucratic mind' is one that simply processes; where the process is an end in itself; where it is stripped of humanity and judgement and where people and their refusal to conform with systems and policies (or even predictions) get in the way of 'delivering outcomes'. Certainly, evil can make great use of such mindsets but I disagree with the inference that that's the essence of bureaucracy.
There is a kind of evil that is facilitated by bureaucracy, and in some ways it's worse than evil driven by passion or need. It's why the film Conspiracy was so chilling.
Despite being explicitly drawn from the miners unions and their political representatives and being supposed to act in the interests of the miners and their families.
"It feels like indifference to those on the receiving end. But perhaps its impulse is less the effect on the victims but more a desire to save face by those responsible. The truth about what happened was important to the families. It mattered that this was publicly acknowledged. But this public acknowledgement is something the authorities find hard to accept or admit. (The paradox is that the later it is said the more victims will want something else — compensation or prosecutions — as a substitute.) It is not just concerns about having to pay compensation which drives this, important as it is. It harms an institution’s self-image and, often, of senior people within it. “We got it wrong.” is hard to say. If “we get it wrong” what sort of a “we” are we, really? Avoiding the shame of having to admit that your actions or inactions have been responsible for the suffering of others is what drives this defensiveness and indifference."0 -
On the question of whole-life sentences, I wonder, looking back at the Anders Breveik case, what the Norwegians would have done with Letby.0
-
Aren’t Fox suing Carlson on the basis that this still counts and he’s in violation?Sandpit said:
The fun bit was in Tucker’s contract with Fox, which says he’s not allowed to work for any other network, that Youtube and Rumble accounts also belong to the network - but that his Twitter account is his own.Pulpstar said:
Smart move by Trump, Elon and Tucker.Sandpit said:Not a total surprise, but cat among the pigeons:
Trump won’t be attending the Republican debate tomorrow (nor seemingly any of the Republican debates), but has an interview with Tucker Carlson scheduled against it, live on Twitter.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=P5kJ_FwW9C8
Fox never thought that Twitter would become a place for long-form video, and Carlson and Musk are taking advantage.0 -
Relating to this case, one hopes that Letby acted totally alone. There is sadly precedent for being egged on by others, whether via correspondence or in person.Sean_F said:
Some people are too dangerous to let back into society.darkage said:
A whole life sentence was inevitable.Sandpit said:
The offences were so serious, and in such numbers, that the judge had very little choice in the sentence.darkage said:
I have no special knowledge or experience of criminal law but pay a lot of attention to the criminal justice system mainly after reading 'the secret barrister' a few years ago. What it seems to me is that you have cases where it is extremely clear cut and others where there is room for doubt. Even just digesting the reporting as an observer I think the latter applies here and I would not be surprised if there are appeals in the future that seek to unpick the evidence that forms the basis of the convictions. Obviously if these appeals are successful then the narrative about the situation will change completely as we have seen recently with other cases.Nigelb said:
Could it ?darkage said:
The comment I would make on this situation is that the decision of the jury could well have gone the other way (they were deliberating for a hundred hours?) in which case the situation would now look completely different, there would be different heroes and villains in the news stories that follow.viewcode said:
I suspect I will be saying this again and again, but this is your perennial reminder that the alert was raised successfully, not by managers, but by an epidemiological unit based in Oxford. This one[1]. It is people such as they, and not fucking [redacteds] trust fund [redacteds] like "Spiked" who will solve this problem, and they get paid a shit-ton less. Bureaucratic mind my fucking arse.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
[1] https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/mbrrace-uk
Remember they were considering a large number of separate charges - for some of which they did not in the end decide there was sufficient evidence to convict.
It seems more likely that what took the time was the charges for which the evidence was not as clear cut. And it's pretty (very ?) unlikely they would have returned not guilty verdicts verdicts for all the charges.
I would add that I think it is very unhelpful that she was given a whole life sentence because it is now highly unlikely that she will ever confess to the crimes with no possible pathway to redemption. Instead it creates an incentive for her to pursue appeals even if she is guilty with all the trauma and uncertainty that would occur if she was successful and got released.
Would ordering her to serve a minimum of 50 years have made a difference, except to try and have her lawyer bargain it down to 30 years on the basis of her age and immaturity, accepting responsibility etc., finishing up with the parents of these children potentially seeing her released in their own lifetimes?
I suspect that she’ll have an awful lot of counselling over the coming weeks, months, and years, and can hopefully bring herself to understand the gravity of what she’s done.
The minimum term is just about eligibility for parole - that's it. It doesn't mean people will actually ever be freed. Life without parole dissuades people from ever admitting guilt because their only way out is by proclaiming innocence.
I realise my views on this are quite unpopular but I think the longest minimum terms should be is about 20 years - beyond which you people can apply for parole, and in any scenario any release is closely supervised and on license. Obviously parole is never inevitable. This is how things are in other European countries AIUI, which often have a better resourced offender management and parole system with lower prison populations and more public confidence in the justice system.0 -
Since he's effectively serving a whole-life sentence anyway, probably much the same.OldKingCole said:On the question of whole-life sentences, I wonder, looking back at the Anders Breveik case, what the Norwegians would have done with Letby.
0 -
World popcorn prices up another 10% on that news, having risen 85% in the previous 36 hours anyway.bondegezou said:
Aren’t Fox suing Carlson on the basis that this still counts and he’s in violation?Sandpit said:
The fun bit was in Tucker’s contract with Fox, which says he’s not allowed to work for any other network, that Youtube and Rumble accounts also belong to the network - but that his Twitter account is his own.Pulpstar said:
Smart move by Trump, Elon and Tucker.Sandpit said:Not a total surprise, but cat among the pigeons:
Trump won’t be attending the Republican debate tomorrow (nor seemingly any of the Republican debates), but has an interview with Tucker Carlson scheduled against it, live on Twitter.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=P5kJ_FwW9C8
Fox never thought that Twitter would become a place for long-form video, and Carlson and Musk are taking advantage.0 -
Based on my Facebook feed, at least three of them need to be brands selling pants, or shaving equipment for the bits that go in pants.TimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment0 -
Admitting guilt is useful but not necessary and certainly shouldn't be made an aim of the system, which would inevitably put improper pressure on the police to secure 'confessions' and the like, or for innocent people to be forced into game theory scenarios.darkage said:
A whole life sentence was inevitable.Sandpit said:
The offences were so serious, and in such numbers, that the judge had very little choice in the sentence.darkage said:
I have no special knowledge or experience of criminal law but pay a lot of attention to the criminal justice system mainly after reading 'the secret barrister' a few years ago. What it seems to me is that you have cases where it is extremely clear cut and others where there is room for doubt. Even just digesting the reporting as an observer I think the latter applies here and I would not be surprised if there are appeals in the future that seek to unpick the evidence that forms the basis of the convictions. Obviously if these appeals are successful then the narrative about the situation will change completely as we have seen recently with other cases.Nigelb said:
Could it ?darkage said:
The comment I would make on this situation is that the decision of the jury could well have gone the other way (they were deliberating for a hundred hours?) in which case the situation would now look completely different, there would be different heroes and villains in the news stories that follow.viewcode said:
I suspect I will be saying this again and again, but this is your perennial reminder that the alert was raised successfully, not by managers, but by an epidemiological unit based in Oxford. This one[1]. It is people such as they, and not fucking [redacteds] trust fund [redacteds] like "Spiked" who will solve this problem, and they get paid a shit-ton less. Bureaucratic mind my fucking arse.Malmesbury said:Saw this
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/21/the-natural-affinity-between-evil-and-bureaucracy/
Evil has a ‘natural affinity with the bureaucratic mind’, wrote Eagleton. ‘Flaws, loose ends and rough approximations are what evil cannot endure’, he wrote. ‘Goodness, by contrast, is in love with the dappled, unfinished nature of things.’ This, I believe, is what we saw in Chester: an association, however unwitting, however regretted, between the bureaucratic mind and the evil mind, with goodness silenced.
[1] https://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/mbrrace-uk
Remember they were considering a large number of separate charges - for some of which they did not in the end decide there was sufficient evidence to convict.
It seems more likely that what took the time was the charges for which the evidence was not as clear cut. And it's pretty (very ?) unlikely they would have returned not guilty verdicts verdicts for all the charges.
I would add that I think it is very unhelpful that she was given a whole life sentence because it is now highly unlikely that she will ever confess to the crimes with no possible pathway to redemption. Instead it creates an incentive for her to pursue appeals even if she is guilty with all the trauma and uncertainty that would occur if she was successful and got released.
Would ordering her to serve a minimum of 50 years have made a difference, except to try and have her lawyer bargain it down to 30 years on the basis of her age and immaturity, accepting responsibility etc., finishing up with the parents of these children potentially seeing her released in their own lifetimes?
I suspect that she’ll have an awful lot of counselling over the coming weeks, months, and years, and can hopefully bring herself to understand the gravity of what she’s done.
The minimum term is just about eligibility for parole - that's it. It doesn't mean people will actually ever be freed. Life without parole dissuades people from ever admitting guilt because their only way out is by proclaiming innocence.
I realise my views on this are quite unpopular but I think the longest minimum terms should be is about 20 years - beyond which you people can apply for parole, and in any scenario any release is closely supervised and on license. Obviously parole is never inevitable. This is how things are in other European countries AIUI, which often have a better resourced offender management and parole system with lower prison populations and more public confidence in the justice system.
It's for the justice system to prove guilt. If people want to admit that earlier, good, and give them some recognition of that in the sentence (as it does); avoiding the monetary, time and emotional costs of a trial is beneficial, all else being equal. But those incentives shouldn't be overplayed - and especially not in the most serious of cases.1 -
Um, Ilford used to have a photographic film factory. The site is now a Sainsbury's.Stuartinromford said:
[applause]TimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
Upscale places (which is where it's at for the Lib Dems these days) have upscale names.
In the recent boundary review, there were complaints from some residents about being moved from Hornchurch and Upminster (mildly eccentric gentlemen's socks) to Romford (enough said) because of the possible effect on the value of their houses.0 -
My grandfather used to get through thirty Romfords a day, claiming he found Navy Cut too smooth a smoke.TimS said:
I was gazing down the list of constituencies to find the roughest sounding. Romford is obviously one. Boston and Skegness another. Could Romford be a classy brand? Perhaps yes: expensive cycling gears. "I've invested in Romfords - much smoother than the old Shimanos and I find they rarely slip".Stuartinromford said:
[applause]TimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
Upscale places (which is where it's at for the Lib Dems these days) have upscale names.
In the recent boundary review, there were complaints from some residents about being moved from Hornchurch and Upminster (mildly eccentric gentlemen's socks) to Romford (enough said) because of the possible effect on the value of their houses.2 -
So you’re fine with someone committing a crime in the UK and getting off scot free?Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:0 -
Perhaps he's a judge?bondegezou said:
So you’re fine with someone committing a crime in the UK and getting off scot free?Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:0 -
I find this comparison in the thread header to be utterly misleading:
"Labour is going to need to make nearly as many gains as Tony Blair secured at GE1997."
It's a misleading statement because it is harder to win a huge number of seats at a GE than it is to win just enough for a majority. It's easier to gain seats that you have held in recent memory than to gain seats that you have not held for many decades, if ever.
A less loaded way of describing what it will take for Labour to win a majority is this: Labour is going to need to win 92 fewer seats than Tony Blair secured at GE 1997. Or perhaps 100 less allowing for Sinn Fein not taking their seats.0 -
The fun thing for us, viewers on the night, is that even if Labour scrapes home with a tiny majority or a hung Parliament, we’re going to see many seats flipping, including probably some that have long been conservative. So there could be the appearance of a landslide even if no actual landslide majority.Wulfrun_Phil said:I find this comparison in the thread header to be utterly misleading:
"Labour is going to need to make nearly as many gains as Tony Blair secured at GE1997."
It's a misleading statement because it is harder to win a huge number of seats at a GE than it is to win just enough for a majority. It's easier to gain seats that you have held in recent memory than to gain seats that you have not held for many decades, if ever.
A less loaded way of describing what it will take for Labour to win a majority is this: Labour is going to need to win 92 fewer seats than Tony Blair secured at GE 1997. Or perhaps 100 less allowing for Sinn Fein not taking their seats.
That’s why 2001 didn’t feel that landslidy: there weren’t multiple seats being won from conservatives. Just existing seats being retained.0 -
The point is at this moment Labour need to win 124 seats for a majority, compared to Blair's 143.Wulfrun_Phil said:I find this comparison in the thread header to be utterly misleading:
"Labour is going to need to make nearly as many gains as Tony Blair secured at GE1997."
It's a misleading statement because it is harder to win a huge number of seats at a GE than it is to win just enough for a majority. It's easier to gain seats that you have held in recent memory than to gain seats that you have not held for many decades, if ever.
A less loaded way of describing what it will take for Labour to win a majority is this: Labour is going to need to win 92 fewer seats than Tony Blair secured at GE 1997. Or perhaps 100 less allowing for Sinn Fein not taking their seats.
Don't see personally how that's misleading.0 -
Man Who Shot Store Owner for Flying Pride Flag Was a Far-Right Conspiracist
https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7ed4q/laura-carleton-pride-flag-shooting
The man who shot and killed the store owner last week over her display of a pride flag outside her store was a far-right conspiracy theorist who shared deeply anti-LGBTQ and antisemitic content on his social media accounts.
Travis Ikeguchi, 27, shot Laura Ann Carleton, 66, on Friday after “yelling many homophobic slurs” about the store’s pride flag, San Bernardino County Sheriff Shannon Dicus said at a news conference Monday...
...The shooter only followed 19 people on X, including One American News, former President Donald Trump, and conspiracy theorist David Knight, who once worked with Alex Jones. The shooter also followed and boosted rightwing professor and conspiracy theory promoter Jordan Peterson, antivax activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr, and the right-wing satirical website the Babylon Bee.0 -
Following Convention standards seems to be a better system than the European Arrest Warrant, which was far too automatic.ydoethur said:
Perhaps he's a judge?bondegezou said:
So you’re fine with someone committing a crime in the UK and getting off scot free?Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:
I posted the numbers the other day that 15-20% of our prison population are innocent people that have not yet been proven guilty.
The Govt know what needs to be done to create room, but as ever this lot are butt-sitting.0 -
Now I’ve got to check whether I’d remembered this correctly…ydoethur said:
World popcorn prices up another 10% on that news, having risen 85% in the previous 36 hours anyway.bondegezou said:
Aren’t Fox suing Carlson on the basis that this still counts and he’s in violation?Sandpit said:
The fun bit was in Tucker’s contract with Fox, which says he’s not allowed to work for any other network, that Youtube and Rumble accounts also belong to the network - but that his Twitter account is his own.Pulpstar said:
Smart move by Trump, Elon and Tucker.Sandpit said:Not a total surprise, but cat among the pigeons:
Trump won’t be attending the Republican debate tomorrow (nor seemingly any of the Republican debates), but has an interview with Tucker Carlson scheduled against it, live on Twitter.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=P5kJ_FwW9C8
Fox never thought that Twitter would become a place for long-form video, and Carlson and Musk are taking advantage.
Let me do some Googling…
OK, one of the J6 insurrectionists is suing Carlson because Carlson said he was an FBI mole.
Aha… https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/jun/12/tucker-carlson-twitter-show-fox-cease-desist Fox have threatened to sue Carlson, but unclear what’s happened since.
0 -
He’s persistently appealing though.ydoethur said:
Since he's effectively serving a whole-life sentence anyway, probably much the same.OldKingCole said:On the question of whole-life sentences, I wonder, looking back at the Anders Breveik case, what the Norwegians would have done with Letby.
0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
{innocent face}bondegezou said:
So you’re fine with someone committing a crime in the UK and getting off scot free?Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:
Perhaps he has a personal interest in such an outcome?0 -
Anyone recognise this magnificent machine that I’ve just seen on Marlborough High Street?
1 -
Good point.Sean_F said:
But a far higher proportion of the working age population is in work, in 2023 than in 2010. So, real median household income is 11% higher in 2023 than in 2010.Pulpstar said:
Wages the same in real terms when Cameron was elected, when we voted for Brexit and now.Stuartinromford said:
The irony of 2016.Pulpstar said:Zero real terms wage growth over 13 years. Has any Gov't managed that particular feat before ?
The rubbish wage growth in the runup to the referendum was a cause of the result tipping the way it did. The fallout of the referendum was then a cause of the ongoing rubbish wage growth.
Date / CPI rebased Jan 2000 / CPIH rebased Jan 2000
May 2010 335 339
Jun 2016 332 335
Jun 2023 335 338
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2022
And the deficit is much lower than in 2010, despite the fact that there's many more working households today.
Apportion the deficit as a per-capita or per-household reduction to income (as its borrowed income from the future, not income from today) and the figures diverge even further.
Despite the fact that I think Sunak is completely mismanaging the economy, the economy is in a much healthier position today than it was in 2010.0 -
It’s factually correct but the point is a large number of those were recently Labour and should more easily flip back. Blair was eating far further into safe Tory territory.ydoethur said:
The point is at this moment Labour need to win 124 seats for a majority, compared to Blair's 143.Wulfrun_Phil said:I find this comparison in the thread header to be utterly misleading:
"Labour is going to need to make nearly as many gains as Tony Blair secured at GE1997."
It's a misleading statement because it is harder to win a huge number of seats at a GE than it is to win just enough for a majority. It's easier to gain seats that you have held in recent memory than to gain seats that you have not held for many decades, if ever.
A less loaded way of describing what it will take for Labour to win a majority is this: Labour is going to need to win 92 fewer seats than Tony Blair secured at GE 1997. Or perhaps 100 less allowing for Sinn Fein not taking their seats.
Don't see personally how that's misleading.0 -
The alleged crim isn't doing any of his criminalising in the UK, and the UK isn't paying for his upkeep.Malmesbury said:
{innocent face}bondegezou said:
So you’re fine with someone committing a crime in the UK and getting off scot free?Luckyguy1983 said:...
May I be the first to express my devastation that we won't be welcoming this gentleman to an expensive facility in our rainy haven just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was about to post that.Cyclefree said:Countries now refusing to extradite people to Britain because prison conditions are so awful - https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/commentary-and-opinion/a-new-blow-for-our-justice-system/5117009.article.
Another Brexit win right?
The Karlsruhe Higher Regional Court consequently demanded guarantees from the UK regarding compliance with minimum standards in accordance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and asked the UK to report on to which prisons the Albanian would be sent and on the state of his future prison conditions. This was not requested under the European Arrest Warrant system, which of course no longer applies to the UK, but under Article 604 (c) of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed between the UK and the EU, which says:
Perhaps he has a personal interest in such an outcome?
From a certain perspective, that probably is a win-win.1 -
Canterbury and Putney were recently Tory. That doesn't mean they 'should more easily flip back.'TimS said:
It’s factually correct but the point is a large number of those were recently Labour and should more easily flip back. Blair was eating far further into safe Tory territory.ydoethur said:
The point is at this moment Labour need to win 124 seats for a majority, compared to Blair's 143.Wulfrun_Phil said:I find this comparison in the thread header to be utterly misleading:
"Labour is going to need to make nearly as many gains as Tony Blair secured at GE1997."
It's a misleading statement because it is harder to win a huge number of seats at a GE than it is to win just enough for a majority. It's easier to gain seats that you have held in recent memory than to gain seats that you have not held for many decades, if ever.
A less loaded way of describing what it will take for Labour to win a majority is this: Labour is going to need to win 92 fewer seats than Tony Blair secured at GE 1997. Or perhaps 100 less allowing for Sinn Fein not taking their seats.
Don't see personally how that's misleading.0 -
Surely they need to GAIN 124?ydoethur said:
The point is at this moment Labour need to win 124 seats for a majority, compared to Blair's 143.Wulfrun_Phil said:I find this comparison in the thread header to be utterly misleading:
"Labour is going to need to make nearly as many gains as Tony Blair secured at GE1997."
It's a misleading statement because it is harder to win a huge number of seats at a GE than it is to win just enough for a majority. It's easier to gain seats that you have held in recent memory than to gain seats that you have not held for many decades, if ever.
A less loaded way of describing what it will take for Labour to win a majority is this: Labour is going to need to win 92 fewer seats than Tony Blair secured at GE 1997. Or perhaps 100 less allowing for Sinn Fein not taking their seats.
Don't see personally how that's misleading.
I don't think the header is misleading, but it's also not unreasonable to point out Starmer doesn't need to WIN anything like the 418 seats secured by Blair to enter Downing Street... a bare majority will do, and indeed he'd probably cobble something together short of that.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTyDKl-IYVg&t=31sBlancheLivermore said:Anyone recognise this magnificent machine that I’ve just seen on Marlborough High Street?
1 -
Map of Seattle, as with many other US cities large and small, bears witness to the snob appeal of British (mostly English) names to American real estate developers starting in approximately 1492.Stuartinromford said:
[applause]TimS said:
Pretty much all of them work as high-end brand names, which the exception of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross which sounds like a firm of solicitors, and the geographical ones (e.g. Cambridgeshire South):SeaShantyIrish2 said:
WHY do at least half of the double-barreled constituency names sound like they were dreamed up by an advertising agency for an upscale home-shopping channel . . . or a new brand of over-priced soap?Barnesian said:.
Here is the corrected list.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
My guess is that the seat should be Newton Abbot in Devon. It's the next English constituency alphabetically after Newcastle-under-Lyme which, as has been pointed out, cannot possibly be correct.ydoethur said:
It is a university seat.slade said:HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
The one surprise in that list of possible LD seats is Newcastle under Lyme. Does anyone have an explanation of this?HYUFD said:
Of those existing LD target seats then I make more in the Home Counties than the entire North of England and Midlands and Wales combined.Barnesian said:
These are the 33 seats that Electoral Calculus is suggesting could be LibDem gains, plus existing LibDem seats makes 40+.HYUFD said:
The typical LD general election target seat is now largely upper middle class, wealthy, highly educated, with well above average house price but which also voted Remain, found most often in the Home Counties. Also similar seats elsewhere like Cheltenham or Hazel Grove.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were betting (I'm not) I might have a dabble on LD seats. The standard projections are based on vote shares but in practice we know the Yellow Peril are good at targeting, so I'm guessing they could get up to around 40 seats.Malmesbury said:
Yes. it is very much up in the air. A Labour majority is much more likely than not. Labour largest party can only be stopped by A Very Black Swan.Peter_the_Punter said:On topic, I see plenty of experienced punters warning about August polls, indeed any poll this far out from a GE.
Intuitively I feel the air will be thick with chickens coming home to roost as the fateful day approaches, but I wouldn't be betting it, not yet at least. I wouldn't be surprised by any result giving the Tories anything from 100 to 250 seats. Outside that very broad band I would be surprised, but even if I'm right that is such a wide spectrum it is virtually useless for betting purposes.
I'll sharpen up nearer the date. Promise.
Doesn't exactly get the pulse racing though, even if correct.
Basically seats which dislike Brexit but are still too posh to vote Labour. That is where they could make significant progress if targeted heavily
Many in the West Country.
Plus as you say some of the traditionally LD seats in the South West the LDs lost in 2015
But even allowing for that, I think it's a typing error. The last time the Liberal Democrats even got over 20% of the vote there was in 1992.
Newton Aycliffe also cannot possibly be correct - I think there are a couple of obvious errors in that part of the list.
Apologies for the mistype.
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chesham and Amersham
Chippenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset West
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Esher and Walton
Fife North East
Frome and East Somerset
Glastonbury and Somerton
Guildford
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Lewes
Melksham and Devizes
Mid Dunbartonshire
Newbury
Norfolk North
St Ives
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Wells and Mendip Hills
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester
Yeovil
"Discerning, high-class customers may shop with complete confidence at our exclusive Thornbury and Yate website."
"If you desire the fresh, appealing scent of one whose's inherited all their furniture, cleanse yourself with the ample, luxurious suds of super-fine soaps by Sutton and Cheam."
Carshalton and Wallington: posh wellies
Cheadle: organic kefir, cultured butter and yoghurts
Cheltenham: spa products
Chesham and Amersham: men's toiletries
Chippenham: classic sports cars
Eastbourne: sparkling wine
Eastleigh: free range eggs
Esher and Walton: men's overcoats
Glastonbury and Somerton: traditional gunsmiths
Guildford: Rugby football outfitters
Harrogate and Knaresborough: loose leaf tea
Hazel Grove: fine chocolatiers
Lewes: golfing shoes
Melksham and Devizes: unpasteurised cheeses
Newbury: checked scarves and anoraks
St Ives: actual facial care brand
Sutton and Cheam: men's shaving products
Thornbury and Yate: organic rare breed butchers
Wells and Mendip Hills: sparkling spring water
Westmorland and Lonsdale: actual sports equipment brand (well, Lonsdale)
Wimbledon: tennis tournament
Winchester: top public school
Yeovil: cricket equipment
Upscale places (which is where it's at for the Lib Dems these days) have upscale names.
In the recent boundary review, there were complaints from some residents about being moved from Hornchurch and Upminster (mildly eccentric gentlemen's socks) to Romford (enough said) because of the possible effect on the value of their houses.
Among our neighborhoods - Windermere, Wallingford, Wedgwood - and that's just the Ws!
Also Queen Anne (actually a Hill and cluster of hoods for example Lower Queen Anne), Brighton and . . . wait for it . . . Broadmoor . . . which in Seattle is an exclusive gated community . . .
Plus Broadview, Greenwood, Laurelhurst, Crown Hill which which reflect homage of American property speculators to the Mother Country.0 -
Just for a bit of fun, looked up the recently released "religion brought up in" stats for Census 2021 on the NISRA website. @HYUFD may be interested that his beloved County Antrim has lost its overall Protestant majority (rather a plurality now), only County Down currently has an outright Protestant majority.Wulfrun_Phil said:I find this comparison in the thread header to be utterly misleading:
"Labour is going to need to make nearly as many gains as Tony Blair secured at GE1997."
It's a misleading statement because it is harder to win a huge number of seats at a GE than it is to win just enough for a majority. It's easier to gain seats that you have held in recent memory than to gain seats that you have not held for many decades, if ever.
A less loaded way of describing what it will take for Labour to win a majority is this: Labour is going to need to win 92 fewer seats than Tony Blair secured at GE 1997. Or perhaps 100 less allowing for Sinn Fein not taking their seats.
https://build.nisra.gov.uk/en/custom/pivotdata?d=PEOPLE&r=data&v=COUNTY_NI&v=RELIGION_BELONG_TO_OR_BROUGHT_UP_IN_DVO&p=1
Cath % Prot % Other None
Down 32.27 53.54 1.53 12.66
Antrim 40.05 47.03 2.07 10.84
Armagh 58.18 33.96 1.16 6.70
Fermanagh 58.82 35.48 1.07 4.63
Derry 61.30 32.51 0.94 5.25
Tyrone 66.49 28.88 0.66 3.970 -
All good men should be BarnesianBarnesian said:
Great question!bondegezou said:
For what values of N, where N is a natural number less than 612, would you take N/1 on there being a Labour majority > N?Barnesian said:
I'm highly partisan and I also agree that the best outcome for the country is Labour with no overall majority for the reasons you give. That would be a terrific outcome.Nigel_Foremain said:
Getting nervous Kina? Only the highly partisan, such as yourself, don't realise that the best outcome for the country is Labour with no overall majority. Starmer is dull enough to make a good leader of a coalition, and Ed Davey would make a goodish deputy PM.kinabalu said:The betting doesn't (as yet) reflect a Con recovery. Lab Maj still about 1.5.
Unfortunately a non-partisan analysis (to the extent that is possible) indicates a Labour overall majority and most punters agree as can be seen on Betfair. I don't think the majority will be as great as my earlier wind-up post indicated! But I would take 100/1 on the Labour majority being greater than 100.
I can't wait for the seats markets to open.
I think I would take a bet of N/1 of a Labour majority of >N for values of N between 2 and 200. But I'm not offering.
I'm SAPYHR too. That surprises me brother. Don't know why.malcolmg said:
SAPYHRviewcode said:FPT
Hmmm. Assuming "X" as a noncommittal option, that would make me...TimS said:A new improved political compass, in the binary letter-combo style of Myers Briggs. Covering the 6 principal faultlines in British politics and ideology (or at least on PB):
Like Myers-Briggs, a forced preference - you have to fall on one side or other rather than claiming to be in the centre or that it depends.
1. Economics, which instead of left vs right I would define as socialised vs market. The extremes on each side being freewheeling market fundamentalism and communism, but in Britain more a case of believing in more or less state intervention in the economy:
S = socialised
M = market
2. Social and identity politics: traditionalist/authoritarian vs liberal. Are you woke or anti-woke? Should we topple statues of slavers? Do we need a lavatory tsar and so on.
W = woke
A = anti-woke
3. Green politics: are you an eco-warrior who wants us all on our bikes, stopping drilling in the North Sea and installing heat pumps, or are you a petrolhead who upholds everyone's right to keep 3 gas guzzlers in the cul-de-sac, thinks LTNs are the spawn of the devil, and wonders if the climate crisis stuff isn't just a tad overwrought.
E = eco-warrior
P = petrolhead
4. Nimby vs Yimby. Should we concrete over the green belt and build build build because the country needs infrastructure, or protect what remains of our green and pleasant land?
N = nimby
Y = yimby
5. Russia and Ukraine: are you a hawk or a dove? Do you despair of keyboard toy soldiers bloodthirstily escalating until the last Ukrainian / global thermonuclear war, and understand Russia's historical concerns on NATO expansion and the rights of Russian speakers in Donbas? Or do you see Putin as a fascist thug who must be defeated to avoid greater problems down the line?
D = dove
H = hawk
6. Brexit or remain. In or out?
B = Brexit
R = remain [rejoin]
As of today I am MWEYHR, although a couple of those are marginal (S/M and N/Y).
SWXXHX
This is not as helpful as I thought...0 -
A sentence that badly needs a comma. 😀malcolmg said:
All good men should be BarnesianBarnesian said:
Great question!bondegezou said:
For what values of N, where N is a natural number less than 612, would you take N/1 on there being a Labour majority > N?Barnesian said:
I'm highly partisan and I also agree that the best outcome for the country is Labour with no overall majority for the reasons you give. That would be a terrific outcome.Nigel_Foremain said:
Getting nervous Kina? Only the highly partisan, such as yourself, don't realise that the best outcome for the country is Labour with no overall majority. Starmer is dull enough to make a good leader of a coalition, and Ed Davey would make a goodish deputy PM.kinabalu said:The betting doesn't (as yet) reflect a Con recovery. Lab Maj still about 1.5.
Unfortunately a non-partisan analysis (to the extent that is possible) indicates a Labour overall majority and most punters agree as can be seen on Betfair. I don't think the majority will be as great as my earlier wind-up post indicated! But I would take 100/1 on the Labour majority being greater than 100.
I can't wait for the seats markets to open.
I think I would take a bet of N/1 of a Labour majority of >N for values of N between 2 and 200. But I'm not offering.
I'm SAPYHR too. That surprises me brother. Don't know why.malcolmg said:
SAPYHRviewcode said:FPT
Hmmm. Assuming "X" as a noncommittal option, that would make me...TimS said:A new improved political compass, in the binary letter-combo style of Myers Briggs. Covering the 6 principal faultlines in British politics and ideology (or at least on PB):
Like Myers-Briggs, a forced preference - you have to fall on one side or other rather than claiming to be in the centre or that it depends.
1. Economics, which instead of left vs right I would define as socialised vs market. The extremes on each side being freewheeling market fundamentalism and communism, but in Britain more a case of believing in more or less state intervention in the economy:
S = socialised
M = market
2. Social and identity politics: traditionalist/authoritarian vs liberal. Are you woke or anti-woke? Should we topple statues of slavers? Do we need a lavatory tsar and so on.
W = woke
A = anti-woke
3. Green politics: are you an eco-warrior who wants us all on our bikes, stopping drilling in the North Sea and installing heat pumps, or are you a petrolhead who upholds everyone's right to keep 3 gas guzzlers in the cul-de-sac, thinks LTNs are the spawn of the devil, and wonders if the climate crisis stuff isn't just a tad overwrought.
E = eco-warrior
P = petrolhead
4. Nimby vs Yimby. Should we concrete over the green belt and build build build because the country needs infrastructure, or protect what remains of our green and pleasant land?
N = nimby
Y = yimby
5. Russia and Ukraine: are you a hawk or a dove? Do you despair of keyboard toy soldiers bloodthirstily escalating until the last Ukrainian / global thermonuclear war, and understand Russia's historical concerns on NATO expansion and the rights of Russian speakers in Donbas? Or do you see Putin as a fascist thug who must be defeated to avoid greater problems down the line?
D = dove
H = hawk
6. Brexit or remain. In or out?
B = Brexit
R = remain [rejoin]
As of today I am MWEYHR, although a couple of those are marginal (S/M and N/Y).
SWXXHX
This is not as helpful as I thought...4 -
I find the basis of this header odd, with most recent Opinium and YouGov putting Tories at 26%. In fact the political takeout from all polling types from all firms is how voters view Sunak, who has become the undeniable blocker on a Tory recovery.
Lightweight, too green and unconvincing for the top job. I’ve watched over sheep with more gravitas. For a saviour, they anointed a dud.
Yes the lead shrinks, but many posters to PB have remarked for months, if the most discernible movement in the polling is Lab to LibDem, and not Tory recovery, this is the scariest scenario bar none for the Tories, in terms of tactical voting, and the combined Lab+LibDem numbers in Blue Wall polling in particular. Although Tories -1 whilst Lab drop 6 will be proved one rogue poll, a gradual, almost unseen at first, move from Labour to LibDem could happen over the next 12 months.
Alternatively, the polling could remain as now, and the surprising exit poll of Labour 39, Con 28, LibDem 18, Reform 2 could come out of nowhere. Not that Reform polling breaks to LibDem, the Refs sit on their hands disgusted with their own enablement of years of incompetence and outright corruption, whilst LLG tactical votes always knew what to do in General Election, just never told pollsters about it. That would not surprise me one bit. In fact the resulting carnage would closely mirror real votes at the 2023 locals.
The UNS and MVS seat models cannot handle a 39/28/18 election, they will be long way out. Look how they give Tory seats to Labour where Labour don’t even have council seats, yet the LibDems have a presence there.
Look not upon “the lead” in the coming 12 months, but the party shares. Labour would love 42% PV at next General Election, as of now average some way over this - the Tories will truly suffer with a PB of 30 or less. And they haven’t averaged 30% for a long time now.
There are more predictive things to focus on - the Tory share level, and we should also keep an eye on how the Tory+Reform figure is shrinking, is it not? Also, where there is evidence of the oft spoken of largish lake of don’t knows, if/when this starts to drain, is it breaking to the Tory total as much as it will need to?0