I find the basis of this header odd, with most recent Opinium and YouGov putting Tories at 26%. In fact the political takeout from all polling types from all firms is how voters view Sunak, who has become the undeniable blocker on a Tory recovery.
Lightweight, too green and unconvincing for the top job. I’ve watched over sheep with more gravitas. For a saviour, they anointed a dud.
Yes the lead shrinks, but many posters to PB have remarked for months, if the most discernible movement in the polling is Lab to LibDem, and not Tory recovery, this is the scariest scenario bar none for the Tories, in terms of tactical voting, and the combined Lab+LibDem numbers in Blue Wall polling in particular. Although Tories -1 whilst Lab drop 6 will be proved one rogue poll, a gradual, almost unseen at first, move from Labour to LibDem could happen over the next 12 months.
Alternatively, the polling could remain as now, and the surprising exit poll of Labour 39, Con 28, LibDem 18, Reform 2 could come out of nowhere. Not that Reform polling breaks to LibDem, the Refs sit on their hands disgusted with their own enablement of years of incompetence and outright corruption, whilst LLG tactical votes always knew what to do in General Election, just never told pollsters about it. That would not surprise me one bit. In fact the resulting carnage would closely mirror real votes at the 2023 locals.
The UNS and MVS seat models cannot handle a 39/28/18 election, they will be long way out. Look how they give Tory seats to Labour where Labour don’t even have council seats, yet the LibDems have a presence there.
Look not upon “the lead” in the coming 12 months, but the party shares. Labour would love 42% PV at next General Election, as of now average some way over this - the Tories will truly suffer with a PB of 30 or less. And they haven’t averaged 30% for a long time now.
There are more predictive things to focus on - the Tory share level, and we should also keep an eye on how the Tory+Reform figure is shrinking, is it not? Also, where there is evidence of the oft spoken of largish lake of don’t knows, if/when this starts to drain, is it breaking to the Tory total as much as it will need to?
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