politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-
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And his intellectual self-confidence will still make him immune.
He's got self-esteem in spades. Not such a good vice right now.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: He's on the menu.
RT @Conorpope: Ed Miliband is at the Scottish Labour Party annual dinner tonight. http://t.co/9iosyM1Bnb0 -
Why does nobody believe you're laughing?JWisemann said:I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
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I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the Lefties of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of denial, , when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, Ed is still leader of the Labour Party..JWisemann said:I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
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It's not literally unbelievable, but SLab (and, as antifrank notes, Con & LD too) will certainly hope it marks a high point.SquareRoot said:I recall a poll before GE 2010 that had the Tories at 52% ....... as Antifrank says. this poll is incredible in the same way as the 2010 poll was...
It's a perfect storm really - the referendum result; the departure of Salmond for a new, less divisive face - Nicola is Major to Alec's Thatcher ;-) ; and a poisonous resignation by the Scottish Labour leader. And there may well be some normal sampling error on top.0 -
Somebody has to win - not looking like Labour..JWisemann said:I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
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If you hadn't also read them to cover every other conceivable outcome, that would indeed be impressive.SeanT said:Without blowing my own trumpet, because it's just not my style, that is some pretty special reading of the runes, right there.
If the thriller writing thing comes to an end you have a great future in horoscopes...0 -
Look on the bright side - you only lose 1 MPRobD said:As a PB Tory, that 10% figure depresses me.
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Just found the regional predictor on electoral calculus, if you put in the nationals of Tories 31, Labour 31, Lib Dems 8, and these results for Scotland, you get:
Labour 285
Tories 267
Nationalists 60
Lib Dems 15
Minor & other 23
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Miliband is of course guest of honour at SLAB's gala dinner in Glasgow tonight.
Let's paaarrrttteh!0 -
An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).0 -
Labour dying at the hand of the son of a Marxist is much more apt.TGOHF said:
Labour dying at the hand of the son of an immigrant - how apt.SeanT said:Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.0 -
One thing this points out in betting is that if long odds are available to "cover" potential pitfalls then they should probably be taken:
The £7 or so I've got on
Con Most seats, Labour most votes at ~ 70-1 could come in useful to avoid a large loss.0 -
Imposed by the casting vote of the Unions, even more aptnigel4england said:Labour dying at the hand of the son of a Marxist is much more apt.
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RT @Conorpope: Ed Miliband is at the Scottish Labour Party annual dinner tonight. http://t.co/9iosyM1Bnb
glum faces and humble pie for pud...?0 -
That's what makes the poll a touch unbeliveable. Con VI has been steady at General elections at about 16% for the last 4 elections. No reason for 6 percentage points to have just vanished overnight.RobD said:As a PB Tory, that 10% figure depresses me.
This poll smells like an outlier.0 -
Hopefully Labour will respond to this by offering plenty more goodies for Scotland, and nothing for England, and UKIP can use that on northern doorsteps.0
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There will be a clear Conservative majority in England. The logical outcome being...Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
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No - UKIP do very bad in Scotland - which has its own Nationalist Party. However note that this means that UKIP voting is more concentrated i.e. bad polling in London/ Scotland = improved polling in the rest of the country.anotherDave said:UKIP 2% !!!!
Either the poll is wrong, or the Scots are!
(Looking at polling reports it suggests that Labour only do well in London and parts of the North of England.)
Tonight should be very interesting - no matter what happens I doubt that Labour will be able to spin the results as good news.
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An outlier from the true position of SNP 40ish, Lab 30ish I think...Alistair said:
That's what makes the poll a touch unbeliveable. Con VI has been steady at General elections at about 16% for the last 4 elections. No reason for 6 percentage points to have just vanished overnight.RobD said:As a PB Tory, that 10% figure depresses me.
This poll smells like an outlier.0 -
To be honest this "Alistair" fellow comes out the best in SeanT's post.0
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To paraphrase Winston...
"Tomorrow you'll still be Ed Miliband."SquareRoot said:
I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the Lefties of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of denial, , when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, Ed is still leader of the Labour Party..JWisemann said:I'm just saying it's hilarious how easily the PB Tories of all political parties get whipped up into an orgy of triumphant excitement, conjuring up all kinds of fantastical scenarios, when the harsh reality on the ground is that, despite a hideous combination of the worst events for Labour imaginable, the Cons are still firmly on course to lose the election.
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Oh the Pointless thing was a wind up.. shame!0
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Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?0 -
Not bad for a nerdy, little boy from Primrose Hill (borders)!SeanT said:
Just to underline what I said there, three days BEFORE the referendum:
1. I predicted NO would win, I was within two points of the actual scores
2. I predicted that, after the indyref loss, the Scots would give him a "very big vote as a consolation prize" in 2015. Heh.
3. I predicted that he would retire (admittedly after the GE, but I was only 8 months out)
4. I predicted that he would get devomax anyway, despite losing
5. I predicted the SNP would become the biggest Scottish party in Holyrood and Westminster, as now looks very very likely
Without blowing my own trumpet, because it's just not my style, that is some pretty special reading of the runes, right there. 0 -
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I also note from looking at the topline that Scotland still has an absurdly high "Certain to Vote" figure which is well, well out from the norm.
Maybe this time it really, really, really is different.0 -
Bizarrely, the movement on betfair has been for NOM to shorten [obviously] but Tory Maj to go out, leaving Lab Maj more-or-less unchanged. This can't last.0
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Wowzers.
That's approaching the level of victory that the IPP used to achieve before Irish Independence.0 -
Ed is good, Ed is great!Moses_ said:0 -
Indeed. The irony is epic.Scott_P said:
Imposed by the casting vote of the Unions, even more aptnigel4england said:Labour dying at the hand of the son of a Marxist is much more apt.
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Nah. If Labour loses the election, they'll recover under someone else as UKIP'll turn their attention to the Tories.SeanT said:Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
If you said "Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that kills Labour", you might very well be right, should he become PM. They have virtually no core support left and are hoping to stumble into office on an oppositionist tide; one which would then leave them marooned.0 -
Tissue_Price said:
Bizarrely, the movement on betfair has been for NOM to shorten [obviously] but Tory Maj to go out, leaving Lab Maj more-or-less unchanged. This can't last.
Conservative majority last matched at 5/10 -
New post from Dominic Cummings. The Civil Service is not a Rolls-Royce.
http://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/0 -
Quite agree - I've just laid laid Labour for a £100/£245 anyway.Tissue_Price said:Bizarrely, the movement on betfair has been for NOM to shorten [obviously] but Tory Maj to go out, leaving Lab Maj more-or-less unchanged. This can't last.
Though of course Scotland offers no increase in a chance of a Conservative Majority.
But it does reduce the chance of a Labour one.
I can't see them going to 4 seats but surely they will lose... some.0 -
SeanT said:
suck it up, baby. I NAILED that prediction. i f*cking KILLED it.Scott_P said:
If you hadn't also read them to cover every other conceivable outcome, that would indeed be impressive.SeanT said:Without blowing my own trumpet, because it's just not my style, that is some pretty special reading of the runes, right there.
If the thriller writing thing comes to an end you have a great future in horoscopes...
I defy anyone to produce something that they said pre-indyref, that contains such uncanny clairvoyant accuracy, making five spookily accurate predictions, in one single comment.
BOW DOWN BEFORE THE ORACLE OF KNOX.
*LITERALLY EXPLODES WITH HUBRIS*
Dear Mr SeanTee
My mother is afflicted and we do not have running fresh water. Please can you supply next Saturdays lottery results ..... Today
Let me know bank details yes? And signature is good also?
Thank you
PS promise to by one of your books when it gets to the bargain bin
Not happen here is Africa for long time
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Of course if it's so 'astonishing' and 'incredible', let's face it, it probably is an outlier.0
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The Baxter calc is keeping the Lab maj price high.Tissue_Price said:Bizarrely, the movement on betfair has been for NOM to shorten [obviously] but Tory Maj to go out, leaving Lab Maj more-or-less unchanged. This can't last.
NOM is got to be approaching nailed on status.0 -
SeanT said:
Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
He might get his place in history after all.
If/when it all goes tits up there will be a mad scramble of accusations floating around the Labour party. The I-told-you-so brigade. I expect Balls will play the role of the false Brutus. False as there is nothing noble about him.0 -
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 7s7 seconds ago
GE2005 result England
VOTES: CON 35.7%, LAB 35.5%
MPs: CON 194, LAB 2860 -
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It is and it isn't - I was analaysing the Scottish subsamples and the SNP is on 40ish.logical_song said:Of course if it's so 'astonishing' and 'incredible', let's face it, it probably is an outlier.
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Labour (last 10 Yougovs) 26.1 ------SNP 41.3
Labour (last 6 populus) 24.8 -------SNP 38.2
Labour (last 6 Ashcrofts) 27.5 ------SNP 46.2
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nigel4england said:
Labour dying at the hand of the son of a Marxist is much more apt.TGOHF said:
Labour dying at the hand of the son of an immigrant - how apt.SeanT said:Ed Miliband might turn out to be the leader that killed Labour. An almost perfect storm is brewing against them: from Rotherham to Scotland, from Farage to Sturgeon, from the Greens to UKIP, and at the eye of the hurricane, the little nerdy boy from Primrose Hill, imposed on Labour by the unions who started the party in the first place.
God's sense of political irony is undimmed.
Marxists have killed many.0 -
Why am I reminded of this...SeanT said:*LITERALLY EXPLODES WITH HUBRIS*
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contemporary_Impressionists0 -
LDs winning Exeter? Probably not!Scott_P said:@GeneralBoles: Now with added Lib Dems (h/t @robertoroblesf) http://t.co/NqTiWcMlDv
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UKIP do quite well in Wales.TGOHF said:So what have PC done wrong ? The only nationalist party doing crap.
I believe Plaid are further left of Labour. More like the Greens than the SNP. So they limit themselves. (That said, I don't live in Wales.)
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/Wales10.pdf0 -
After the indyref turnout and the rise in voter registration, indeed so.Alistair said:I also note from looking at the topline that Scotland still has an absurdly high "Certain to Vote" figure which is well, well out from the norm.
Maybe this time it really, really, really is different.
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But you know these were on old boundaries!dr_spyn said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 7s7 seconds ago
GE2005 result England
VOTES: CON 35.7%, LAB 35.5%
MPs: CON 194, LAB 2860 -
Don't forget the SNP is at 80,000 members - that is the equivalent of a million UK wide, and is more than the
UKIP, LD, Lab, Con put together and doubled.0 -
FTP:
"As for the poll, they've successfully got us all talking about it! I suspect a Scottish poll, showing the SNP on 98% of the seats or something."
How's that for soothsaying? Eat your heart out, SeanT.
Like Tissueprice I'd think it's a perfect storm effect - even our most enthusiastic supporters would concede it's been a sub-optimal couple of months in Scotland.
Thanks to Moses for the friendly note below. Yes, I know Burnham personally and absolutely trust him to be reliably keener on helping the NHS than diverting money to local authorities (which was the concern that I was replying to).0 -
Having been to Exeter I was always surprised how quickly it has become a safeish Labour seat. The stoodents are not your radical set, in fact, anything but. The town itself has no large industry or big union tradition. Haven't been for many years but I cannot believe it has been pauperised either.RobD said:
LDs winning Exeter? Probably not!Scott_P said:@GeneralBoles: Now with added Lib Dems (h/t @robertoroblesf) http://t.co/NqTiWcMlDv
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Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?Tissue_Price said:
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?0 -
What's driving this SNP surge? Is it the fact that Labour is trying to break the promises it made to secure a No win over the SNP?
A Con-SNP coalition would be a hoot.0 -
Have you been imbibing the Colombian Chop?SeanT said:I'm now altering the wikipedia page on Famous Prophets, to make sure the large section on me is properly sourced and referenced.
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The Pythoness at Delphi had some good ideas, BTW. You could sit on a kitchen stool above a drain grille in Camden, for added effect, though it's up to you if you want to do something about your gender ...SeanT said:I'm now altering the wikipedia page on Famous Prophets, to make sure the large section on me is properly sourced and referenced.
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They won't.antifrank said:
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?Tissue_Price said:
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
Labour has taken the same drubbing the Lib Dems have from being "red" and "yellow" tories as a result of the Indy Ref.
I can see the SNP supporting C&S for either Labour or Tory though in return for Scottish goodies. Which would be a massive headache for either Mr Miliband or Dave.
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There is an interesting question lurking under this baxtered result
If the SNP had 54 MPs at Westminster, including a certain A Salmond, who would hold the balance of power within the SNP?0 -
After this poll surely it has to be Murphy for SLAB, and surely Salmond cannot resist running for Westminster-he seemed still very animated at FM questions today.
Still available bet at Ladbrokes at evens that Salmond will be elected to Westminster in 2015 GE- I got on at the maximum £50 they would let me have at 2/1 yesterday. They let me have another £50 at evens a short time ago.
Murphy is Scottish Labour's last best hope-tragic though that is!
I don't doubt the SNP support will fall back, but as said earlier this potentially puts the SNP in a pre-independence Ireland situation with a very high likelihood of holding the balance of power.
What pitiful excuses will the BBC etc use to deny the SNP some role in the UK leader debates?
It is now win/win in spades for the SNP on the issue-let them in, great publicity but exclude them-utter prejudice!0 -
The way things are going, by the time we get to the GE leaders debates, there will only be the Conservatives, Ukip and the SNP eligible.0 -
Salmond is to the SNP as Putin is to Russia I think (And I don't man that in a derogatory fashion)Scott_P said:There is an interesting question lurking under this baxtered result
If the SNP had 54 MPs at Westminster, including a certain A Salmond, who would hold the balance of power within the SNP?
So I'd say Salmond if this result came about.0 -
Last 4 Labour Scottish subsamples in order taken by ComRes
33, 29, 27, 20.0 -
At this rate its going to need a five party coalition to get a majority of three.
I'm also reminded that Lloyd George decided that letting the Irish have independence was a good idea when he realised that the new universal franchise meant the alternative was 100 Irish mainly nationalist MPs holding the balance of power in parliament permanently.0 -
Surely a Kipper-Nat coalition would be the best for popcorn consumption ?0
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So when Scottish Labour gets a new leader, they'll get a bounce back. But by what mechanism will the Scottish Conservatives get a bounce back from 10%?0
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LOL. Class.felix said:I think the only hope now is for Miliband to head up to Glasgow to make one of his big set-pieces and forget to mention Scotland.
Which is not to say it couldn't happen...!
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guido picks up STV poll.
http://order-order.com/2014/10/30/ipsos-mori-poll-labour-face-wipeout-in-scotland/0 -
Tories in Scotland
Comres (last 4) 16.8
YouGov (last 10) 17.7
Populus (last 6) 19.8
Ashcroft (last 6) 11.50 -
WhenSandyRentool said:So when Scottish Labour gets a new leader, they'll get a bounce back. But by what mechanism will the Scottish Conservatives get a bounce back from 10%?
the unionsLabour select Neil Findlay to chase Nicola as far left as they can0 -
But the Scots don't want independence, they want to have their cake served up on a platter. And eat it.Paul_Mid_Beds said:At this rate its going to need a five party coalition to get a majority of three.
I'm also reminded that Lloyd George decided that letting the Irish have independence was a good idea when he realised that the new universal franchise meant the alternative was 100 Irish mainly nationalist MPs holding the balance of power in parliament permanently.
If I was Scottish I'd definitely vote SNP. And the rise of the SNP as they demand "fair" deals for Scotland can surely only help UKIP in England.0 -
NickPalmer said:
FTP:
"As for the poll, they've successfully got us all talking about it! I suspect a Scottish poll, showing the SNP on 98% of the seats or something."
How's that for soothsaying? Eat your heart out, SeanT.
Like Tissueprice I'd think it's a perfect storm effect - even our most enthusiastic supporters would concede it's been a sub-optimal couple of months in Scotland.
Thanks to Moses for the friendly note below. Yes, I know Burnham personally and absolutely trust him to be reliably keener on helping the NHS than diverting money to local authorities (which was the concern that I was replying to).
Your welcome Nick and duly noted.
Please just remember though....... DUEMA
;-)
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Ladbrokes' constituency markets are back up, but Scottish seats are conspicuous by their absence. Shadsy must be putting his thinking cap on.0
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Where is Stuart Dickson and James Kelly today of all days, or is Mr Kelly still banned ?0
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If this were the result it would solve the West Lothian Question quite nicely.0
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Even with a taxi-style wipeout for the Lib Dems in England this sort of result would increase the size of the Hung Parliament window at the next GE.
If Labour lose 37 seats in Scotland then they would need to gain about 100 seats in England to win a majority. This would be something like Staffordshire Moorlands, which requires a swing of 7.7%. That isn't going to happen.
Still, if it's only a Hung Parliament because of the SNP, but Labour take a majority, or even a plurality, of English seats, then it probably makes sorting out the devolution mess a bit simpler. Labour need less than a 5% swing to hold more seats than the Conservatives in England.0 -
This poll is of course a disaster for Sturg - all downhill from here once she takes over...0
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Good afternoon, everyone.
A rare case of a poll living up to its billing. Looks good for the Greens as well. Any prospect of them taking a seat or two?0 -
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 43m43 minutes agoantifrank said:Ladbrokes' constituency markets are back up, but Scottish seats are conspicuous by their absence. Shadsy must be putting his thinking cap on.
@chrishanretty I currently have absolutely no idea how to re-price the Scottish seats.
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Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 13s14 seconds agodr_spyn said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 7s7 seconds ago
GE2005 result England
VOTES: CON 35.7%, LAB 35.5%
MPs: CON 194, LAB 286
@MSmithsonPB
LibDem GE2005 votes: 22.9%
MPs: 47
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Where's the obligatory Hodges article? For once he'd be 100% correct to portray this as "a disaster for Ed Miliband".0
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It clashes with another one of his predictions that the SNP would be toast after the referendum.Anorak said:Where's the obligatory Hodges article? For once he'd be 100% correct to portray this as "a disaster for Ed Miliband".
His long-held thesis has been that Labour's support would "swing back" to the Conservatives. In actual fact, their support's been drifting to virtually every party EXCEPT the Conservatives, which means the big two are now level pegging even though the Tories are still at the dire polling levels of the Omnishambles in 2012.0 -
@Shadsy is as confused as the rest of us.isam said:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 43m43 minutes agoantifrank said:Ladbrokes' constituency markets are back up, but Scottish seats are conspicuous by their absence. Shadsy must be putting his thinking cap on.
@chrishanretty I currently have absolutely no idea how to re-price the Scottish seats.
Big overrounds and short prices on the SNP would be my advice if I was his boss at Ladbrokes.0 -
antifrank said:
Doesn't the SNP have a constitutional bar on teaming up with the Conservatives?Tissue_Price said:
Lay Labour Majority is certainly the mainstream bet of the day. I would contend that 5.5-6.0 on Tory Majority is actually a fair price.Life_ina_market_town said:An astonishing poll. If it is remotely accurate, the only realistic outcomes at the next general election are a hung parliament and a Tory majority. The latter looks vanishingly unlikely. God help the country if there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus.
OT. Warby J will hand down judgment tomorrow following the pre-trial review in Mitchell MP v News Group Newspapers Ltd (TLJ/14/0554) and Rowland v Mitchell MP & anr (TLJ/14/0554).
A block of 40 SNP MPs (and cf. 25 Lib Dems) would drastically change the post-election calculus. Would either Tories or Labour be prepared to go into formal coalition with them if necessary?
They happily worked with them 2007-11.0 -
Ed in the sand - quicksand?Anorak said:Where's the obligatory Hodges article? For once he'd be 100% correct to portray this as "a disaster for Ed Miliband".
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FALSE_FLAG said "God help the country if there there is endless bidding for the support of Ulstermen, Scottish Nationalists, and Liberal Democrats in the next Parliament. It will be a circus."
So how about free votes in the Commons for all MPs all the time. The PM would initially be from the largest party but if (s)he couldn't hack it a free vote of MPs for PM too!
(Just joking)0 -
Quick question - Does this bring us to an ENP of 5 ?0
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The Greens are targeting one seat in Scotland, Edinburgh East. Their candidate is the rector of Edinburgh University, and they're angling for a pact with the SNP where the SNP give them a clear run in this seat in return for the Greens stepping aside in other seats.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
A rare case of a poll living up to its billing. Looks good for the Greens as well. Any prospect of them taking a seat or two?
This poll is probably bad news for the Greens because it will encourage the SNP to ignore such entreaties.
Modesty forbids me from mentioning who tipped the Greens at 33/1 in this seat last week...0 -
Aren't Labour offering the most anaemic version of devolution though? The offer from the Tories (and Lib Dems for what that's worth) is much more devolutionary.OblitusSumMe said:Even with a taxi-style wipeout for the Lib Dems in England this sort of result would increase the size of the Hung Parliament window at the next GE.
If Labour lose 37 seats in Scotland then they would need to gain about 100 seats in England to win a majority. This would be something like Staffordshire Moorlands, which requires a swing of 7.7%. That isn't going to happen.
Still, if it's only a Hung Parliament because of the SNP, but Labour take a majority, or even a plurality, of English seats, then it probably makes sorting out the devolution mess a bit simpler. Labour need less than a 5% swing to hold more seats than the Conservatives in England.
Also... "Vote Ed, Get Salmond"
The Scottish situation is a complete disaster for Labour.
Their links to Scotland will be poisonous in England.0 -
When will you lot awaken and see what's caused Scotland to abandon Labour, The Lib Dems to tank and the Greens to surge? It's all one reason. Fracking will decide the 2015 election as I keep telling you.
DAILY RECORD
SNP Ministers slam UK Government plans to allow fracking in Scotland.. despite 99% of people opposing it
Sep 25, 2014 22:38 By Dailyrecord.co.uk
FERGUS EWING, Scottish Government energy minister says that the UK Government plans amount to riding roughshod over Scottish people's views.. and called for immediate devolution of oil and gas grilling decisions.
As Plaid Cymru are opposing fracking, fracking could also swing Wales away from Labour. The only difference is that Welsh fracking is only just starting to get permissions, starting with Borras near Wrexham.0 -
If the SNP get 50 seats (which I doubt) will they still only vote on Scotland specific items? If so, the real majority needed would be considerably less than 326. Say 650-50SNP-5SF-Speaker=594 so a majority for EWNI matters with 298 seats.0
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Yes, I'd grown quite tired of polls showing no change being trailed as "incredible". This was indeed a ludicrously unbelievable monster of a poll.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
A rare case of a poll living up to its billing. Looks good for the Greens as well. Any prospect of them taking a seat or two?
I am just unhappy that by baby filled my time yesterday and prevented me getting any speculative SNP bets on.0 -
UKIP are very fond of Fracking, but they seem to be doing ok.Tapestry said:When will you lot awaken and see what's caused Scotland to abandon Labour, The Lib Dems to tank and the Greens to surge? It's all one reason. Fracking will decide the 2015 election as I keep telling you.
DAILY RECORD
SNP Ministers slam UK Government plans to allow fracking in Scotland.. despite 99% of people opposing it
Sep 25, 2014 22:38 By Dailyrecord.co.uk
FERGUS EWING, Scottish Government energy minister says that the UK Government plans amount to riding roughshod over Scottish people's views.. and called for immediate devolution of oil and gas grilling decisions.0
