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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-MORI
SNP at 52% in Scotland according to new Ipsos-MORI poll
SNP 52%
LAB 23%
CON 10%
GRN 6%
LD 6%
0
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Don't think so!
Using their Strong Transition model the LDs hold Orkney, and Labour hold Kirkcaldy [but Brown's surely standing down], Glasgow NE and Coatbridge.
Either the poll is wrong, or the Scots are!
Jim Murphy will turn most of this round IMO.
Anyone think this will be the GE 2015 outcome?
What does Dan Hodges think?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/opinion/nothing-in-moderation.html?ref=opinion&_r=1
Argues that the belief that the largest mass of voters have moderate views is an artefact of defining politics on a left-right scale, and actually voters frequently have extreme views on individual issues, only looking moderate when you average over those issues.
If you're going to have devolved power you want the SNP in charge else you may as well just have Westminster
Lab 42%, SNP 19.9%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_results_in_Scotland#Overall_results
I am not convinced 35% would ever have given Labour a majority, but minus Scotland, no chance.
The NHS theme blew out in H&M. Will the Mansion Tax scupper them in the lefty trendy parts of London too? Plus REd didn't feel immigration or the economy were important enough to mention in his big speech, so where exactly does this leave Labour?
Thanks BTW to antifrank for emerging from his period of purdah to give us the heads-up on the superb odds which were available on the SNP back in August. I'd already backed the SNP to some extent but that prompted me to go in further on some of the more speculative seats at long odds. They are not looking such long-shots now.
Anyway I'm glad my betting position is net positive for this outcome.
Richard Osman (@richardosman)
30/10/2014 14:16
Delighted that Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage have all agreed to appear on a special edition of Pointless at the start of April 2015
And it's Miliband, not Brown, standing for Westminster this time.
His personal approval ratings in Scotland are worse then Cameron's. When was the last time a Labour leader had worse ratings than a Tory one in Scotland?
The Greens and the SNP together are taking 58% of this vote. That's more than a reversal of the referendum result for the Yessers.
''The 1026 participants were surveyed between October 22 and 29 as the row broke over leadership of the Scottish Labour party. ''
*wipes tea from screen*
Since Pointless is played in pairs, what would be the pairings?
I know fuck all.
Miliband with Clegg
£10 at 50-1 on SNP Dunbartonshire East
£200 Labour 1-2
£100 4-6 SNP +6.5
£10 SNP Glasgow East 33-1
£200 Labour 1-5 Glasgow East
£5 12-1 Edinburgh North and Leith.
Lose £400,
Win £956 if this transpires.
Under Ms Sturgeon, I presume the SNP will become more Leftish and lose Tartan Tories over time.
Mr Murphy could do a Tony and keep these voters and remain Labourite.
Do you think he's OK?
Probably not to bother, with the awful examples of the LDs in both Holyrood and Westminster. Minority government on a supply basis. Unless something very very tasty was on offer, and I'm not thinking of ministerial cars.
The English parties would form one to stop them getting their own way. They would have to.
Surely, the SNP would want a pact with the English ruling party to just stay out of each other's way and devolve as much as possible?
The least friendly devolvers are Labour.
That leaves the Tories, unless UKIP suddenly wipe Labour out in England.
Win-win!
Mr Miliband, there is a bottle of whisky and a revolver on the table.
Moses_ said:
» show previous quotes
Nick, as you may remember or perhaps not, we have crossed swords in the past in many ways but i always have appreciated your open approach. To be on a site like this and be exposed to whatever comes your way is unusual and not many on your side would do this so you have my absolute respect for that whatever your views.
In saying that do you really seriously believe what you just put there? Burnham? NHS.
* shakes head*
DUEMA
ABL
Don't Unseat Ed Miliband Association? (not sure what ABL is!)
A belated welcome back, Moses!
Thanks Sunil.
My trademark if you remember " ALB = Anyone but Labour *. "
* with apologies to NPXMP
£ 10.00 Next General Election Constituency Betting SW-|Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross SNP 6/1
With the SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon snapping at their heels to become the main party of the left in Scotland, its make your mind up time for the Labour party and one of their biggest Union donors. Its time to either shut up and put the Labour party first as I suspect Jim Murphy has decided to do, or its going Falkirk/Lab/Unite all over again. Only this time, on a bigger scale right before that all important GE, and no one is going to come out looking like a winner if that happens. And the last thing the Scottish Labour party should do right now is try to move even more leftward than the SNP are going to do under Sturgeon.
I honestly can't get my head around EdM being less popular in Scotland than AN Other Tory.
It's hilariously bad. IIRC @Sean_Fear noted some bizarrely Truth Stranger Than Fiction polling changes on FPT - this is my #1.
oh dear... oops!
ABL
Anyone but Labour.
of course
Blame the spell checker , weather or anyone else but me.
It's conceivable that Labour's vote will split in the way the Lib Dems has.
Some go to UKIP (wwc) , some go to Respect (muslim), some go to Plaid (welsh) and some go to the left (green) and some go to the only place that is left which isn't "racist" or "muslim" or "too liberal/white" - the Tories.
It's conceivable.
limited information
Con 0
Lab 4
Lib Dems 1
SNP 54
EDIT: Tories get 0, not 1.
If there are two or three more similar polls, almost impossible to exlude the SNP from the debates, on the same grounds as the Lib Dems i.e. influence in parliament after the event.
Will Ed score sub Foot ?
Foot was a towering colossus compared to the vacuum of Ed
RT @Conorpope: Ed Miliband is at the Scottish Labour Party annual dinner tonight. http://t.co/9iosyM1Bnb
EdM may as well support EVEL ... he's got nothing to lose anymore.