ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
Labour only moved to Starmer after 10 years in opposition and 3 consecutive general election defeats under Ed Miliband and Corbyn.
If Sunak and Hunt lose their wing of the party will be blamed for the defeat and the party will move right in response.
Though if the economy is poor under a Starmer government that may not stop the Tories getting poll leads, even Foot from 1980-81 and Ed Miliband had poll leads when the economy wasn't doing that well
Nonsense
It took the catastrophic result for labour in 2019 for labour and Starmer to move away from Corbynite politics and to the centre
You are so blinkered
He is blinkered, but I think he is right on this point.
If the Tories lose the next election badly, recent history suggests they will lurch to the right and it will taken them a decade or so to come back to the centre.
I am not yet convinced that will be the outcome, but if it is they may not be in power again
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
Labour only moved to Starmer after 10 years in opposition and 3 consecutive general election defeats under Ed Miliband and Corbyn.
If Sunak and Hunt lose their wing of the party will be blamed for the defeat and the party will move right in response.
Though if the economy is poor under a Starmer government that may not stop the Tories getting poll leads, even Foot from 1980-81 and Ed Miliband had poll leads when the economy wasn't doing that well
Nonsense
It took the catastrophic result for labour in 2019 for labour and Starmer to move away from Corbynite politics and to the centre
You are so blinkered
He is blinkered, but I think he is right on this point.
If the Tories lose the next election badly, recent history suggests they will lurch to the right and it will taken them a decade or so to come back to the centre.
Parties don't seem to be in the right headspace to learn a lesson after their first defeat, and in recent decades the public have seemed inclined to give a new party a good chance. If they are fortunate they do after the second loss.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
Extinction event
Even Corbyn got almost a third of the vote in 2019 and 40% in 2017. If you rally the rightwing or leftwing core vote that gets you about a third of the vote regardless, extinction event would be losing your rightwing or leftwing base and losing centrists too
You can claim JSA regardless of savings however, you can only claim UC if you don't have sufficient private savings.
It's appalling that the UC savings bar applies to everyone claiming UC, for any reason. Someone forced to give up work to care for a disabled spouse, child, etc, is expected to burn though almost all their savings before they can apply for help.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
I was thinking that's a more recent phenomenon.
I don't know - after they lost under Douglas-Hume in 1964, the Conservatives did move to the Right and especially after the 1966 defeat - the Selsdon Man manifesto is a more radical document than the first Thatcher Manifesto in 1970.
It may be more accurate to say parties which lose power after an extended period in office generally move away from the centre. I'm not sure for example how different the Labour Party of 1964 was to that which lost in 1951 - Wilson had served under Attlee and was more traditional Labour than for example Gaitskell who might be regarded as the Blair of his time (or perhaps the Starmer).
Attlee continued as Leader of the Opposition after 1951 defeat
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
Labour only moved to Starmer after 10 years in opposition and 3 consecutive general election defeats under Ed Miliband and Corbyn.
If Sunak and Hunt lose their wing of the party will be blamed for the defeat and the party will move right in response.
Though if the economy is poor under a Starmer government that may not stop the Tories getting poll leads, even Foot from 1980-81 and Ed Miliband had poll leads when the economy wasn't doing that well
Nonsense
It took the catastrophic result for labour in 2019 for labour and Starmer to move away from Corbynite politics and to the centre
You are so blinkered
He is blinkered, but I think he is right on this point.
If the Tories lose the next election badly, recent history suggests they will lurch to the right and it will taken them a decade or so to come back to the centre.
Parties don't seem to be in the right headspace to learn a lesson after their first defeat, and in recent decades the public have seemed inclined to give a new party a good chance. If they are fortunate they do after the second loss.
In 1979 Labour lost power under the centrist Callaghan, in 1997 the Tories lost power under the centrist Major and Clarke and in 2024 the Tories may lose power under the relatively centrist Sunak and Hunt. Even in 2010 Gordon Brown had still been a big party of the centrist New Labour project and he also was the PM that led Labour to defeat. That may explain it.
Of course if the economy is bad under a new government even a non centrist can win, as Thatcher did in 1979
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
But if every incoming Labour government commits to maintaining their core policies (1997, 2024?) their work on earth is done.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
I was thinking that's a more recent phenomenon.
I don't know - after they lost under Douglas-Hume in 1964, the Conservatives did move to the Right and especially after the 1966 defeat - the Selsdon Man manifesto is a more radical document than the first Thatcher Manifesto in 1970.
It may be more accurate to say parties which lose power after an extended period in office generally move away from the centre. I'm not sure for example how different the Labour Party of 1964 was to that which lost in 1951 - Wilson had served under Attlee and was more traditional Labour than for example Gaitskell who might be regarded as the Blair of his time (or perhaps the Starmer).
Attlee continued as Leader of the Opposition after 1951 defeat
Yes and after the 1955 defeat as well - Gaitskell hardly represented a "move away from the centre". I suspect had he lived he'd have achieved a greater win over Douglas-Hume than Wilson managed.
He was a proponent of the mixed economy and opposed to both unilateralism and the Common Market. It seems unlikely Britain would have joined the EEC so soon had he lived. It's perfectly possible he'd have served two terms as Labour Prime Minister.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
It is an area where Trussites have a point - had there been a noticable improvement in governance then the damage down by ousting a leader within 2 months (and even more damagingly many looking to reinstall the other leader just ousted) may have been overcome. But because there has only been sporadic examples to point to and otherwise a general sense of decline and low energy defeatism, that benefits of ridding themselves of Truss rather than just pushing on and making the best of it are harder to define.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
Labour only moved to Starmer after 10 years in opposition and 3 consecutive general election defeats under Ed Miliband and Corbyn.
If Sunak and Hunt lose their wing of the party will be blamed for the defeat and the party will move right in response.
Though if the economy is poor under a Starmer government that may not stop the Tories getting poll leads, even Foot from 1980-81 and Ed Miliband had poll leads when the economy wasn't doing that well
Nonsense
It took the catastrophic result for labour in 2019 for labour and Starmer to move away from Corbynite politics and to the centre
You are so blinkered
He is blinkered, but I think he is right on this point.
If the Tories lose the next election badly, recent history suggests they will lurch to the right and it will taken them a decade or so to come back to the centre.
I am not yet convinced that will be the outcome, but if it is they may not be in power again
People always say that. But many can't see as far ahead as they think.
What is true is that no Labour government in Britain has ever brought about social reforms that would remove the Tory party's position, even when in opposition, as the "natural party of government" in this country. And because it's not removed, it continues.
The number of Labour leaders who have actually wanted to do something about this is very small. Aneurin Bevan is on it.
If it were ever to happen, it would happen fast. If anyone doesn't realise why this is, they could do better than to meditate on the meaning of the word "Establishment".
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
You can claim JSA regardless of savings however, you can only claim UC if you don't have sufficient private savings.
It's appalling that the UC savings bar applies to everyone claiming UC, for any reason. Someone forced to give up work to care for a disabled spouse, child, etc, is expected to burn though almost all their savings before they can apply for help.
If they give up work to care they can claim Carer's Allowance. It is way too low but it is something.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
Labour only moved to Starmer after 10 years in opposition and 3 consecutive general election defeats under Ed Miliband and Corbyn.
If Sunak and Hunt lose their wing of the party will be blamed for the defeat and the party will move right in response.
Though if the economy is poor under a Starmer government that may not stop the Tories getting poll leads, even Foot from 1980-81 and Ed Miliband had poll leads when the economy wasn't doing that well
Nonsense
It took the catastrophic result for labour in 2019 for labour and Starmer to move away from Corbynite politics and to the centre
You are so blinkered
He is blinkered, but I think he is right on this point.
If the Tories lose the next election badly, recent history suggests they will lurch to the right and it will taken them a decade or so to come back to the centre.
I am not yet convinced that will be the outcome, but if it is they may not be in power again
People always say that. But many can't see as far ahead as they think.
What is true is that no Labour government in Britain has ever brought about social reforms that would remove the Tory party's position, even when in opposition, as the "natural party of government" in this country. And because it's not removed, it continues.
The number of Labour leaders who have actually wanted to do something about this is very small. Aneurin Bevan is on it.
If it were ever to happen, it would happen fast. If anyone doesn't realise why this is, they could do better than to meditate on the meaning of the word "Establishment".
What social reforms would do that? Gulags for pensioners and a ban on private schools?
You can claim JSA regardless of savings however, you can only claim UC if you don't have sufficient private savings.
It's appalling that the UC savings bar applies to everyone claiming UC, for any reason. Someone forced to give up work to care for a disabled spouse, child, etc, is expected to burn though almost all their savings before they can apply for help.
If they give up work to care they can claim Carer's Allowance. It is way too low but it is something.
I wonder if it happens to be much cheaper for HMG than funding local authories' social services properly.
Off off topic, Just received an email from John Lewis that my item has been despatched. Some poor devil is hard at work at 9.30 on a Saturday night despatching my item. What a time to be alive.
Amazon work 24/7 all year dispatching items
Yes, you must be right. The fulfilment is probably done by Amazon and not directly by JL. And if one depot goes on strike they just switch to a different one.
I don't think so - the stock control is all John Lewis. Utterly rubbish.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
I think he will hold on but even if he didn't Tony Benn lost his seat in 1983 but won a by election and was back in Parliament shortly after
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
Bud Light’s marketing manager gave it a good go earlier this year, when she said she wanted to change the “out of touch” and “too fratty” brand. Bud Light sales are down around 30% in the US in the past three months, and the whole AB InBev company sales are down more than 10% in that market, with their share price off substantially since the debacle.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
Mrs Foxys engagement ring came from Ratners in Tooting High St.
That was 3 years before he made his notorious remarks.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
Labour only moved to Starmer after 10 years in opposition and 3 consecutive general election defeats under Ed Miliband and Corbyn.
If Sunak and Hunt lose their wing of the party will be blamed for the defeat and the party will move right in response.
Though if the economy is poor under a Starmer government that may not stop the Tories getting poll leads, even Foot from 1980-81 and Ed Miliband had poll leads when the economy wasn't doing that well
Nonsense
It took the catastrophic result for labour in 2019 for labour and Starmer to move away from Corbynite politics and to the centre
You are so blinkered
He is blinkered, but I think he is right on this point.
If the Tories lose the next election badly, recent history suggests they will lurch to the right and it will taken them a decade or so to come back to the centre.
I am not yet convinced that will be the outcome, but if it is they may not be in power again
People always say that. But many can't see as far ahead as they think.
What is true is that no Labour government in Britain has ever brought about social reforms that would remove the Tory party's position, even when in opposition, as the "natural party of government" in this country. And because it's not removed, it continues.
The number of Labour leaders who have actually wanted to do something about this is very small. Aneurin Bevan is on it.
If it were ever to happen, it would happen fast. If anyone doesn't realise why this is, they could do better than to meditate on the meaning of the word "Establishment".
What social reforms would do that? Gulags for pensioners and a ban on private schools?
The other problem is that the Establishment mutates and changes over time.
The NHS is a core part of the establishment - as a place for power, jobs etc. The patient stuff is a minor byproduct.
Similarly, environmental policies are now core Establishment values.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
I think he will hold on but even if he didn't Tony Benn lost his seat in 1983 but won a by election and was back in Parliament shortly after
I'm not sure who would be more insulted by the attempted congruence.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
No, he boasted that it was crap. Bit different from an unintended slip.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
I think he will hold on but even if he didn't Tony Benn lost his seat in 1983 but won a by election and was back in Parliament shortly after
I'm not sure who would be more insulted by the attempted congruence.
I dunno.
Both Eurosceptic. Both "who cares about reality, the important thing is what the people want". Both histrionic attention whores.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
Mrs Foxys engagement ring came from Ratners in Tooting High St.
That was 3 years before he made his notorious remarks.
Yes, I know someone whose engagement ring came from Ratners and to this day is highly annoyed by those remarks, as she rather likes her ring.
Another possible example of ratnering is Alison Rose and Coutts, which had this pretension of being an exclusive bank and very publicly wasn't able to keep riff raff like Nigel Farage out of it.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
No, he boasted that it was crap. Bit different from an unintended slip.
I'm sure Ratner didn't intend to destroy his business.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
Rees Mogg’s seat is one that could be won by either Labour or the Lib Dems. There will need to be a difficult conversation about who will be the main contender, because they will both want to be the party that defeats him.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
No, he boasted that it was crap. Bit different from an unintended slip.
I'm sure Ratner didn't intend to destroy his business.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative
No he's not. He might be a Conservative, but not a conservative - what conservative is supportive of revolutionary redesigning of our constitutional settlements to declare a party's MPs no longer have the right to oust their leader (not just they should not) and the House to therefore signal who should be PM?
There are genuine revolutionaries who aren't so radical.
Being posh and wearing oversized jackets doesn't mean he is a conservative, even if he sounds like one - on the big questions clearly anything he wants should happen, no matter how radical.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
I think he will hold on but even if he didn't Tony Benn lost his seat in 1983 but won a by election and was back in Parliament shortly after
I'm not sure who would be more insulted by the attempted congruence.
I dunno.
Both Eurosceptic. Both "who cares about reality, the important thing is what the people want". Both histrionic attention whores.
They've got a lot in common.
And of course very closely adjacent seats geographically. Though I can't imagine Mr R-M organising a boycott of the Bristol [edit] Bus Company. Perhaps unfairly.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
Rees Mogg’s seat is one that could be won by either Labour or the Lib Dems. There will need to be a difficult conversation about who will be the main contender, because they will both want to be the party that defeats him.
Which most likely means they split the opposition vote and re elect him, it is not in the top 100 Labour target seats but is in the top 50 LD target seats. Yet Labour were second in his seat in 2019 not the LDs
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
I take it you were 8 in 1991? I, sadly, was not.
Yes. I wasn't aware of it at the time; I became familiar with the case study later.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative
No he's not. He might be a Conservative, but not a conservative - what conservative is supportive of revolutionary redesigning of our constitutional settlements to declare a party's MPs no longer have the right to oust their leader (not just they should not) and the House to therefore signal who should be PM?
There are genuine revolutionaries who aren't so radical.
Being posh and wearing oversized jackets doesn't mean he is a conservative, even if he sounds like one - on the big questions clearly anything he wants should happen, no matter how radical.
Quite. Oliver Cromwell was positively a centrist dad by comparison.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
Mrs Foxys engagement ring came from Ratners in Tooting High St.
That was 3 years before he made his notorious remarks.
Yes, I know someone whose engagement ring came from Ratners and to this day is highly annoyed by those remarks, as she rather likes her ring.
Another possible example of ratnering is Alison Rose and Coutts, which had this pretension of being an exclusive bank and very publicly wasn't able to keep riff raff like Nigel Farage out of it.
Getting Nigel Farage out of the bank would have been trivial*. But, in the classic style of Arrogant Management, she tried to be both vindictive and clever. Which always ends as the special kind of stupid**.
*Switch him to a Nat West account, letter in the post. **In a game of Tell The Truth, she lost to Nigel Farage.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
Rees Mogg’s seat is one that could be won by either Labour or the Lib Dems. There will need to be a difficult conversation about who will be the main contender, because they will both want to be the party that defeats him.
They will probably both contest it vigorously. The LDs will probably win, with Labour coming second. That would give Labour a good base to start from next time round if the LDs run into difficulties.
Future Conservative prospects in the constituency will depend on how the Party rebuilds. The crystal ball becomes very foggy when that question is asked.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
My conservative values are very different to yours
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
But whose values? Henry VIII's? No point the Tories being in power if they want to go back to Divine Right and hanging and drawing in public, as you keep assuring us their members want, as well as doing down the RC Church, as you want to do (vide your complaints about its influence in Scotland thanks to the lack of an Established Church there).
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
But whose values? Henry VIII's? No point the Tories being in power if they want to go back to Divine Right and hanging and drawing in public, as you keep assuring us their members want, as well as doing down the RC Church, as you want to do (vide your complaints about its influence in Scotland thanks to the lack of an Established Church there).
The values of Tories today, which aren't quite the same as those of the 1530s.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
But whose values? Henry VIII's? No point the Tories being in power if they want to go back to Divine Right and hanging and drawing in public, as you keep assuring us their members want, as well as doing down the RC Church, as you want to do (vide your complaints about its influence in Scotland thanks to the lack of an Established Church there).
Certainly not yours.
Low taxes, a smaller state, social conservatism, reduced immigration, tougher law and order and national sovereignty for starters
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
I take it you were 8 in 1991? I, sadly, was not.
LG Is, however, entirely correct.
I recall well how Mr Ratner did in his brand by saying it was cheap crap, cost less than a M&S prawn sandwich.
You certainly can't accuse Ms Truss and Mr Kamikwazi of selling *cheap* crap.
Or explicitly saying their policies were crap.
Exactly. Ratner's mistake wasn't producing cheap trinkets, it was giving a public filmed speech taking the piss out of his items and by extension those who purchased them. Leaving policy to one side, the leader who has 'ratnered' the Tory brand the most recently is Rishi Sunak, because he has criticised past leaders and their programmes (albeit not by name) publicly, in a way that neither of his predecessors have. The biggest 'Ratner' in the Tory tale would have to be May, for making a public speech coining the phrase 'the nasty party' - the nearest Ratner parallel I can think of in Conservative history. There are various resignation speeches, but those were intended to damage, so not really the same.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
Rees Mogg’s seat is one that could be won by either Labour or the Lib Dems. There will need to be a difficult conversation about who will be the main contender, because they will both want to be the party that defeats him.
They will probably both contest it vigorously. The LDs will probably win, with Labour coming second. That would give Labour a good base to start from next time round if the LDs run into difficulties.
Future Conservative prospects in the constituency will depend on how the Party rebuilds. The crystal ball becomes very foggy when that question is asked.
On current polls the LD vote will be down there on 2019
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
Mrs Foxys engagement ring came from Ratners in Tooting High St.
That was 3 years before he made his notorious remarks.
Yes, I know someone whose engagement ring came from Ratners and to this day is highly annoyed by those remarks, as she rather likes her ring.
Another possible example of ratnering is Alison Rose and Coutts, which had this pretension of being an exclusive bank and very publicly wasn't able to keep riff raff like Nigel Farage out of it.
Getting Nigel Farage out of the bank would have been trivial*. But, in the classic style of Arrogant Management, she tried to be both vindictive and clever. Which always ends as the special kind of stupid**.
*Switch him to a Nat West account, letter in the post. **In a game of Tell The Truth, she lost to Nigel Farage.
Nigel Farage wasn't telling the truth. But that's irrelevant. He rang rings round an utterly cack handed bank management.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
But whose values? Henry VIII's? No point the Tories being in power if they want to go back to Divine Right and hanging and drawing in public, as you keep assuring us their members want, as well as doing down the RC Church, as you want to do (vide your complaints about its influence in Scotland thanks to the lack of an Established Church there).
The values of Tories today, which aren't quite the same as those of the 1530s.
C of E, Established Church, keeping the serfs and the French in their place, divine right of anointed royalty, privatisation of previously public and community resources, enacting penal laws against the unemployed ...
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
Labour only moved to Starmer after 10 years in opposition and 3 consecutive general election defeats under Ed Miliband and Corbyn.
If Sunak and Hunt lose their wing of the party will be blamed for the defeat and the party will move right in response.
Though if the economy is poor under a Starmer government that may not stop the Tories getting poll leads, even Foot from 1980-81 and Ed Miliband had poll leads when the economy wasn't doing that well
Nonsense
It took the catastrophic result for labour in 2019 for labour and Starmer to move away from Corbynite politics and to the centre
You are so blinkered
He is blinkered, but I think he is right on this point.
If the Tories lose the next election badly, recent history suggests they will lurch to the right and it will taken them a decade or so to come back to the centre.
I am not yet convinced that will be the outcome, but if it is they may not be in power again
People always say that. But many can't see as far ahead as they think.
What is true is that no Labour government in Britain has ever brought about social reforms that would remove the Tory party's position, even when in opposition, as the "natural party of government" in this country. And because it's not removed, it continues.
The number of Labour leaders who have actually wanted to do something about this is very small. Aneurin Bevan is on it.
If it were ever to happen, it would happen fast. If anyone doesn't realise why this is, they could do better than to meditate on the meaning of the word "Establishment".
What social reforms would do that? Gulags for pensioners and a ban on private schools?
When you ask about gulags for pensioners, you're being silly.
But yes, abolish the private schools. Abolish the monarchy. Abolish beneficial ownership. (Do those three on Day 1.) Income tax of a much more heavily progressive character. Crack down on medics and their racket, and pharmaceutical interests, so as to build a decent-quality state health service. (Erode deference, right?) Real encouragement of real potential (which everybody has) and the flushing of the ideology that some are born superior to others down the toilet where it belongs. Expose the City of London. Open the windows on many other nests of clientelism and corruption too so as to expose where the money has really been going, while the country has slid further and further downhill for the past 40+ years.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. This isn't 1992, or 1997. Each election turns on its own. Labour start on 202 seats, the Conservatives on 365.
For Labour, that's pretty much 1983. For the Conservatives that somewhere between 1987 and 1992.
The Conservatives lose 40 seats or less - majority still. The Conservatives lose 40-50 seats - whilst not a majority, the DUP will bail them out, and combined with Sinn Fein's abstention, they're the only game in town. The Conservatives lose 50-80 seats, and it's likely they're STILL the largest party (though putting together a coalition is extremely unlikely). Only at losses of over 80 seats is it likely they'll lose largest party status.
Labour gain less than 80 - its likely they're still behind the Conservatives in seats. Labour gain 80-120 - it's still a hung parliament. Only at gains above 120 can they secure a majority. [1]
Only one election post war produced such a large swing in seats (I'm not going to count 1945 itself). Tony Blair and 1997 with 147 seat gains. The next is Cameron in 2010 who got 93 seats. Put simply, Starmer has to replace Cameron and make his swing the second best post war swing.
What's to stop Sunak deciding to simply throw everything at 350 defendable seats, and paper candidate the rest with only the air war to fight?
He won't win them all, but he might get 300. Add in a few shock surprises in seats he didn't expect to win, and that might leave the Conservatives as the only game in town..........
[1] I realise that due to both the SNP and Lib Dems, its not likely a straight switch from Conservative to Labour. The Conservatives could lose 90 seats, but if 30 of them are to the LD and only 60 to Labour, the Conservatives will remain the largest party at 375 against 362. Likewise, if the Conservatives only lose 70, Labour can still overtake them as the largest party if they can smash the SNP.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
But whose values? Henry VIII's? No point the Tories being in power if they want to go back to Divine Right and hanging and drawing in public, as you keep assuring us their members want, as well as doing down the RC Church, as you want to do (vide your complaints about its influence in Scotland thanks to the lack of an Established Church there).
Certainly not yours.
Low taxes, a smaller state, social conservatism, reduced immigration, tougher law and order and national sovereignty for starters
Shane your party has been selling the country off to foreigners and encouraging immigration even more now, as well as running the defences down.
And lower taxes? Maybe pensioners, but for sure not the working folk.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
Labour only moved to Starmer after 10 years in opposition and 3 consecutive general election defeats under Ed Miliband and Corbyn.
If Sunak and Hunt lose their wing of the party will be blamed for the defeat and the party will move right in response.
Though if the economy is poor under a Starmer government that may not stop the Tories getting poll leads, even Foot from 1980-81 and Ed Miliband had poll leads when the economy wasn't doing that well
Nonsense
It took the catastrophic result for labour in 2019 for labour and Starmer to move away from Corbynite politics and to the centre
You are so blinkered
He is blinkered, but I think he is right on this point.
If the Tories lose the next election badly, recent history suggests they will lurch to the right and it will taken them a decade or so to come back to the centre.
I am not yet convinced that will be the outcome, but if it is they may not be in power again
People always say that. But many can't see as far ahead as they think.
What is true is that no Labour government in Britain has ever brought about social reforms that would remove the Tory party's position, even when in opposition, as the "natural party of government" in this country. And because it's not removed, it continues.
The number of Labour leaders who have actually wanted to do something about this is very small. Aneurin Bevan is on it.
If it were ever to happen, it would happen fast. If anyone doesn't realise why this is, they could do better than to meditate on the meaning of the word "Establishment".
What social reforms would do that? Gulags for pensioners and a ban on private schools?
When you ask about gulags for pensioners, you're being silly.
But yes, abolish the private schools. Abolish the monarchy. Abolish beneficial ownership. (Do those three on Day 1.) Income tax of a much more heavily progressive character. Crack down on medics and their racket, and pharmaceutical interests, so as to build a decent-quality state health service. (Erode deference, right?) Real encouragement of real potential (which everybody has) and the flushing of the ideology that some are born superior to others down the toilet where it belongs. Expose the City of London. Open the windows on many other nests of clientelism and corruption too so as to expose where the money has really been going, while the country has slid further and further downhill for the past 40+ years.
Even Corbyn didn't go that far, why not nationalise the entire FTSE 100 too to complete the set?
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
Mrs Foxys engagement ring came from Ratners in Tooting High St.
That was 3 years before he made his notorious remarks.
Yes, I know someone whose engagement ring came from Ratners and to this day is highly annoyed by those remarks, as she rather likes her ring.
Another possible example of ratnering is Alison Rose and Coutts, which had this pretension of being an exclusive bank and very publicly wasn't able to keep riff raff like Nigel Farage out of it.
Mrs Foxy had the stones reset, with a few extras in a more modern style for our Silver wedding anniversary.
I lost my wedding ring a few years into our marriage, not sure how, but I was rather drunk at a friend's wedding. I now wear my great grandfather's wedding ring, resized to fit.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
Rees Mogg’s seat is one that could be won by either Labour or the Lib Dems. There will need to be a difficult conversation about who will be the main contender, because they will both want to be the party that defeats him.
They will probably both contest it vigorously. The LDs will probably win, with Labour coming second. That would give Labour a good base to start from next time round if the LDs run into difficulties.
Future Conservative prospects in the constituency will depend on how the Party rebuilds. The crystal ball becomes very foggy when that question is asked.
On current polls the LD vote will be down there on 2019
Electoral Calculus has it as a fairly comfortable Labour gain, but this is where its mechanistic approach tends to fall down.
If the Conservative vote collapses, the LDs are much the more likely beneficiary in that kind of seat.
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
I was listening to him after the recent by-election win and thinking "It'd 'Brucie'! Without the charisma!".
I've said it before and I'll say it again. This isn't 1992, or 1997. Each election turns on its own. Labour start on 202 seats, the Conservatives on 365.
For Labour, that's pretty much 1983. For the Conservatives that somewhere between 1987 and 1992.
The Conservatives lose 40 seats or less - majority still. The Conservatives lose 40-50 seats - whilst not a majority, the DUP will bail them out, and combined with Sinn Fein's abstention, they're the only game in town. The Conservatives lose 50-80 seats, and it's likely they're STILL the largest party (though putting together a coalition is extremely unlikely). Only at losses of over 80 seats is it likely they'll lose largest party status.
Labour gain less than 80 - its likely they're still behind the Conservatives in seats. Labour gain 80-120 - it's still a hung parliament. Only at gains above 120 can they secure a majority. [1]
Only one election post war produced such a large swing in seats (I'm not going to count 1945 itself). Tony Blair and 1997 with 147 seat gains. The next is Cameron in 2010 who got 93 seats. Put simply, Starmer has to replace Cameron and make his swing the second best post war swing.
What's to stop Sunak deciding to simply throw everything at 350 defendable seats, and paper candidate the rest with only the air war to fight?
He won't win them all, but he might get 300. Add in a few shock surprises in seats he didn't expect to win, and that might leave the Conservatives as the only game in town..........
[1] I realise that due to both the SNP and Lib Dems, its not likely a straight switch from Conservative to Labour. The Conservatives could lose 90 seats, but if 30 of them are to the LD and only 60 to Labour, the Conservatives will remain the largest party at 375 against 362. Likewise, if the Conservatives only lose 70, Labour can still overtake them as the largest party if they can smash the SNP.
I expect that will be the Tory strategy, but where are those 350 seats to be found? 150 fairly easy and 250 perhaps possible, but 350? No chance.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
But whose values? Henry VIII's? No point the Tories being in power if they want to go back to Divine Right and hanging and drawing in public, as you keep assuring us their members want, as well as doing down the RC Church, as you want to do (vide your complaints about its influence in Scotland thanks to the lack of an Established Church there).
Certainly not yours.
Low taxes, a smaller state, social conservatism, reduced immigration, tougher law and order and national sovereignty for starters
Shane your party has been selling the country off to foreigners and encouraging immigration even more now, as well as running the defences down.
And lower taxes? Maybe pensioners, but for sure not the working folk.
It did end EU free movement but yes needs to do more to stop the boats. Boris also provided the weapons to help Ukraine contain Putin.
Truss to be fair to her did cut national insurance and stamp duty and cut the basic and top rates of income tax and duties on beer, wine and spirits but she didn't cut spending at the same time. Hence the markets reacted badly
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
I was listening to him after the recent by-election win and thinking "It'd 'Brucie'! Without the charisma!".
"Didn't he do well?!"...
And now I can't unhear it...
Yes, he is wooden and timid, but doesn't that still beat petulant and patronising Sunak? Certainly that is what the polling says.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
Mrs Foxys engagement ring came from Ratners in Tooting High St.
That was 3 years before he made his notorious remarks.
Yes, I know someone whose engagement ring came from Ratners and to this day is highly annoyed by those remarks, as she rather likes her ring.
Another possible example of ratnering is Alison Rose and Coutts, which had this pretension of being an exclusive bank and very publicly wasn't able to keep riff raff like Nigel Farage out of it.
Again, I don't think that's really an example of 'ratnering' a brand. It is damaging to the brand certainly.
I don't think Ratner's stuff was probably all that crap. Jewellery tends to have a massive mark up because jewellery shop owners tend to sell very few items and they have rent to pay. Ratner was disrupting that industry. He just gave into the temptation of being in the boy's club chuckling at his customers.
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
I was listening to him after the recent by-election win and thinking "It'd 'Brucie'! Without the charisma!".
"Didn't he do well?!"...
And now I can't unhear it...
Yes, he is wooden and timid, but doesn't that still beat petulant and patronising Sunak? Certainly that is what the polling says.
He will probably end up a British Hollande to Sunak's Sarkozy and if he does become PM like Hollande as President of France will soon become very unpopular and not last beyond a term
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
The purpose of the conservative party is to be in power, not a far right ideological platform that appeals to a prejudiced core and would be as relevant as Corbyn is is no time
No the purpose of the Conservative Party is not just to be in power. It is to be in power to implement conservative values.
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
But whose values? Henry VIII's? No point the Tories being in power if they want to go back to Divine Right and hanging and drawing in public, as you keep assuring us their members want, as well as doing down the RC Church, as you want to do (vide your complaints about its influence in Scotland thanks to the lack of an Established Church there).
Certainly not yours.
Low taxes, a smaller state, social conservatism, reduced immigration, tougher law and order and national sovereignty for starters
Shane your party has been selling the country off to foreigners and encouraging immigration even more now, as well as running the defences down.
And lower taxes? Maybe pensioners, but for sure not the working folk.
I find the modern Tories quite puzzling. I can wrap my head around the rhetoric as in HY's reply - but that's not what they are now.
They're almost at a MiniTrue stage. "The State has gotten smaller by 20%! Rejoice!" :: state increases by 20%, taxes on working people go up by 20% ::
Labour _used_ to at least be honest about this stuff. And the Tories _used_ to be honest about what a small state/low-tax country meant - which gave you a straight choice on your tick.
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
I was listening to him after the recent by-election win and thinking "It'd 'Brucie'! Without the charisma!".
"Didn't he do well?!"...
And now I can't unhear it...
Yes, he is wooden and timid, but doesn't that still beat petulant and patronising Sunak? Certainly that is what the polling says.
He will probably end up a British Hollande to Sunak's Sarkozy and if he does become PM like Hollande as President of France will soon become very unpopular and not last beyond a term
Starmer has a mistress?!
Don't let it out. He'll sweep the country at the next election.
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
I was listening to him after the recent by-election win and thinking "It'd 'Brucie'! Without the charisma!".
"Didn't he do well?!"...
And now I can't unhear it...
Yes, he is wooden and timid, but doesn't that still beat petulant and patronising Sunak? Certainly that is what the polling says.
It might well do. I'm not sure it fills me with a sense of hope and optimism though. "Not petulant and patronising - tick!". Amazing. Almost 200 years of Socialist thought and here's where we are.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. This isn't 1992, or 1997. Each election turns on its own. Labour start on 202 seats, the Conservatives on 365.
For Labour, that's pretty much 1983. For the Conservatives that somewhere between 1987 and 1992.
The Conservatives lose 40 seats or less - majority still. The Conservatives lose 40-50 seats - whilst not a majority, the DUP will bail them out, and combined with Sinn Fein's abstention, they're the only game in town. The Conservatives lose 50-80 seats, and it's likely they're STILL the largest party (though putting together a coalition is extremely unlikely). Only at losses of over 80 seats is it likely they'll lose largest party status.
Labour gain less than 80 - its likely they're still behind the Conservatives in seats. Labour gain 80-120 - it's still a hung parliament. Only at gains above 120 can they secure a majority. [1]
Only one election post war produced such a large swing in seats (I'm not going to count 1945 itself). Tony Blair and 1997 with 147 seat gains. The next is Cameron in 2010 who got 93 seats. Put simply, Starmer has to replace Cameron and make his swing the second best post war swing.
What's to stop Sunak deciding to simply throw everything at 350 defendable seats, and paper candidate the rest with only the air war to fight?
He won't win them all, but he might get 300. Add in a few shock surprises in seats he didn't expect to win, and that might leave the Conservatives as the only game in town..........
[1] I realise that due to both the SNP and Lib Dems, its not likely a straight switch from Conservative to Labour. The Conservatives could lose 90 seats, but if 30 of them are to the LD and only 60 to Labour, the Conservatives will remain the largest party at 375 against 362. Likewise, if the Conservatives only lose 70, Labour can still overtake them as the largest party if they can smash the SNP.
After boundary changes the Tories will probably start on around 376 and Labour about 197.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%.
Rishi has to squeeze that RefUK vote to make the next election competitive, even if the Labour vote is falling back a little
More like Refuk on 30, Con on 10. Do you not realise how detested Johnson is at the moment? That might change but the Partygate lying is still raw.
Even at the heart of Partygate allegations the Tories were polling 30-35% not the 26% they are on tonight!
The Conservatives under Johnson got 30% NEV in his final local elections in May 2022, in Rishi's first local elections this year however the Tories got just 26% NEV
Sadly you are in thrall to Johnson and have not acknowledged the long term damage he has caused the conservative party made worse by Truss
The damage continues in the polls as Johnson/ Truss ratnered the brand which will not be repaired by Johnson returning
The polling evidence shows it was Truss and her awful budget with Kwarteng that ratnered the brand most. Rishi has at least done a bit better than she was doing when she resigned but is still doing worse than Boris was when he resigned
It's odd how people using 'Ratner' as a verb seem to have no understanding of Gerald Ratner and what he did to his brand.
Indeed. "Destroy the brand" is a more accurate description of what Johnson, Truss etc did to the Conservative Party.
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
OK I see the point, but "ratner" becomes a rather useless verb if you limit it to destroying the brand *in that particular way" because who except GR has ever done that?
The in-joke with Ratner was that his stuff genuinely was crap. You can't make a piece of fine jewellery for the price of half a sandwich.
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
Mrs Foxys engagement ring came from Ratners in Tooting High St.
That was 3 years before he made his notorious remarks.
Yes, I know someone whose engagement ring came from Ratners and to this day is highly annoyed by those remarks, as she rather likes her ring.
Another possible example of ratnering is Alison Rose and Coutts, which had this pretension of being an exclusive bank and very publicly wasn't able to keep riff raff like Nigel Farage out of it.
Again, I don't think that's really an example of 'ratnering' a brand. It is damaging to the brand certainly.
I don't think Ratner's stuff was probably all that crap. Jewellery tends to have a massive mark up because jewellery shop owners tend to sell very few items and they have rent to pay. Ratner was disrupting that industry. He just gave into the temptation of being in the boy's club chuckling at his customers.
Yes - it wasn't so much that he admitted that his stuff was crap, it was more that he insulted all his customers.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. This isn't 1992, or 1997. Each election turns on its own. Labour start on 202 seats, the Conservatives on 365.
For Labour, that's pretty much 1983. For the Conservatives that somewhere between 1987 and 1992.
The Conservatives lose 40 seats or less - majority still. The Conservatives lose 40-50 seats - whilst not a majority, the DUP will bail them out, and combined with Sinn Fein's abstention, they're the only game in town. The Conservatives lose 50-80 seats, and it's likely they're STILL the largest party (though putting together a coalition is extremely unlikely). Only at losses of over 80 seats is it likely they'll lose largest party status.
Labour gain less than 80 - its likely they're still behind the Conservatives in seats. Labour gain 80-120 - it's still a hung parliament. Only at gains above 120 can they secure a majority. [1]
Only one election post war produced such a large swing in seats (I'm not going to count 1945 itself). Tony Blair and 1997 with 147 seat gains. The next is Cameron in 2010 who got 93 seats. Put simply, Starmer has to replace Cameron and make his swing the second best post war swing.
What's to stop Sunak deciding to simply throw everything at 350 defendable seats, and paper candidate the rest with only the air war to fight?
He won't win them all, but he might get 300. Add in a few shock surprises in seats he didn't expect to win, and that might leave the Conservatives as the only game in town..........
[1] I realise that due to both the SNP and Lib Dems, its not likely a straight switch from Conservative to Labour. The Conservatives could lose 90 seats, but if 30 of them are to the LD and only 60 to Labour, the Conservatives will remain the largest party at 375 against 362. Likewise, if the Conservatives only lose 70, Labour can still overtake them as the largest party if they can smash the SNP.
After boundary changes the Tories will probably start on around 376 and Labour about 197.
It doesn't matter where they start - the election results last time are a lousy predictor compared to the opinion polls 3 months or less out. Those are the only decent predictors. Trying to guess next time's results from last time's is pointless.
Labour didn't win after 1983 because they only put on another three per cent. That's it. If they had put on 10 per cent, they might have won. There's no physical limit here, and the sample size of relevant general elections is tiny.
the election results last time are a lousy predictor compared to the opinion polls 3 months or less out. Those are the only decent predictors. Trying to guess next time's results from last time's is pointless
Agreed. And the reason for that is the length of an election campaign...
John Curtice once said (and I was in the room when he said it ) that opinion polls mid-period are more like marks of approval of the Govt instead of serious voting intention. Only when the election is announced that people start thinking seriously about it.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
I think he will hold on but even if he didn't Tony Benn lost his seat in 1983 but won a by election and was back in Parliament shortly after
I'm not sure who would be more insulted by the attempted congruence.
I dunno.
Both Eurosceptic. Both "who cares about reality, the important thing is what the people want". Both histrionic attention whores.
They've got a lot in common.
Benn arguably more authentically posh than that petit bourgeois idea of a posh person JRM.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. This isn't 1992, or 1997. Each election turns on its own. Labour start on 202 seats, the Conservatives on 365.
For Labour, that's pretty much 1983. For the Conservatives that somewhere between 1987 and 1992.
The Conservatives lose 40 seats or less - majority still. The Conservatives lose 40-50 seats - whilst not a majority, the DUP will bail them out, and combined with Sinn Fein's abstention, they're the only game in town. The Conservatives lose 50-80 seats, and it's likely they're STILL the largest party (though putting together a coalition is extremely unlikely). Only at losses of over 80 seats is it likely they'll lose largest party status.
Labour gain less than 80 - its likely they're still behind the Conservatives in seats. Labour gain 80-120 - it's still a hung parliament. Only at gains above 120 can they secure a majority. [1]
Only one election post war produced such a large swing in seats (I'm not going to count 1945 itself). Tony Blair and 1997 with 147 seat gains. The next is Cameron in 2010 who got 93 seats. Put simply, Starmer has to replace Cameron and make his swing the second best post war swing.
What's to stop Sunak deciding to simply throw everything at 350 defendable seats, and paper candidate the rest with only the air war to fight?
He won't win them all, but he might get 300. Add in a few shock surprises in seats he didn't expect to win, and that might leave the Conservatives as the only game in town..........
[1] I realise that due to both the SNP and Lib Dems, its not likely a straight switch from Conservative to Labour. The Conservatives could lose 90 seats, but if 30 of them are to the LD and only 60 to Labour, the Conservatives will remain the largest party at 375 against 362. Likewise, if the Conservatives only lose 70, Labour can still overtake them as the largest party if they can smash the SNP.
Sure:
But all those equations apply equally to Labour and the LibDems. Labour doesn't need to devote resources to seats it already holds, nor to potential gain number 200, it just needs to spend time and money on the seats it needs to flip. And the same is true of the LibDems.
[although, to be fair, if you have "...Hit by extreme heat, hundreds of participants at the event fell ill and were treated for heat-related ailments, prompting complaints from parents over the safety of their children..." then perhaps they do have cause]
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
I was listening to him after the recent by-election win and thinking "It'd 'Brucie'! Without the charisma!".
"Didn't he do well?!"...
And now I can't unhear it...
Yes, he is wooden and timid, but doesn't that still beat petulant and patronising Sunak? Certainly that is what the polling says.
He will probably end up a British Hollande to Sunak's Sarkozy and if he does become PM like Hollande as President of France will soon become very unpopular and not last beyond a term
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
I think he will hold on but even if he didn't Tony Benn lost his seat in 1983 but won a by election and was back in Parliament shortly after
I'm not sure who would be more insulted by the attempted congruence.
I dunno.
Both Eurosceptic. Both "who cares about reality, the important thing is what the people want". Both histrionic attention whores.
They've got a lot in common.
Benn arguably more authentically posh than that petit bourgeois idea of a posh person JRM.
Better class of posh in the old days. Thesedays its all faux-victorian mannerisms or throwing paint around at a sporting event or blocking traffic to save the earth.
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
Not least because JRM will be picking up* his P45 at the next GE.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
I think he will hold on but even if he didn't Tony Benn lost his seat in 1983 but won a by election and was back in Parliament shortly after
I'm not sure who would be more insulted by the attempted congruence.
I dunno.
Both Eurosceptic. Both "who cares about reality, the important thing is what the people want". Both histrionic attention whores.
They've got a lot in common.
Benn arguably more authentically posh than that petit bourgeois idea of a posh person JRM.
Better class of posh in the old days. Thesedays its all faux-victorian mannerisms or throwing paint around at a sporting event or blocking traffic to save the earth.
Would you think better of JRM if he painted himself orange and then glued himself to the road in Downing St to stop PM Starmer from getting to PMQs?
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
I was listening to him after the recent by-election win and thinking "It'd 'Brucie'! Without the charisma!".
"Didn't he do well?!"...
And now I can't unhear it...
Yes, he is wooden and timid, but doesn't that still beat petulant and patronising Sunak? Certainly that is what the polling says.
He will probably end up a British Hollande to Sunak's Sarkozy and if he does become PM like Hollande as President of France will soon become very unpopular and not last beyond a term
ReformUK now tied with the LDs for third quite significant. Highest vote for a party right of the Conservatives on that poll since the 12% UKIP got in 2015. If that marked a trend could Farage be tempted to return?
Good evening
Why don't you admit it
You really want to see a Johnson - Farage - Trump triumvirate
No but if Boris was Tory leader still I suspect the Conservatives would be at least over 30% and RefUK would not be on 10%
RefUK are not on 10% irrespective of tonight's poll and Johnson is toxic to the electorate
Your posts are entirely consistent with your right wing views and your hopes for a right wing conservative party post GE 2024 not least the way you champion Johnson - Farage and yes Trump and indeed the absurd Rees Mogg
Well maybe Rishi and Hunt will be re elected as you hope, if not then you can be sure the Conservatives will switch back to a more populist right Johnson/Farage direction in opposition
Significant you do not say as you hope, and you just confirm my comments tonight
And post GE 24 anything could happen to the conservative party hopefully after many right wingers are thrown out by the electorate
Parties which lose power generally move away from the centre, as Labour did after 1979 with Foot, the Tories did after 1997 with Hague and IDS and Labour did after 2010 with Ed Miliband and Corbyn. A Sunak and Hunt defeat would also see the Conservatives shift right in opposition
That is not a given
Labour recognised how toxic Corbyn was and has moved to the centre
The toxicity of Johnson will be there post GE24, and it is also far from certain how many right wingers will be re-elected
There are enough right wing Conservatives with very safe seats to make them a force in the post GE party. That's before considering the effect of retirements and new selections. Really it boils down to two questions;
1 When will the party membership be willing to consider a non-headbanger as leader? It will happen eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be in Spring 2025.
2 How much Conservative Party will be left at that point?
The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss.
When they get the chance to elect Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the Opposition then they will have had the same chance Labour members had when they picked Corbyn to pick a pure true believer!
"The Conservatives membership haven't had the chance to pick a proper 'headbanger' yet, even Truss."
Ms Truss wasn't selected by the Conservative Party members? I know we have been talking about SF this evening, but that is real alternative universe stuff.
My point was Truss was hopeless as PM but not a true pure ideologue 'headbanger' in the words of some on here.
Only when Tory members have elected Jacob Rees Mogg to be Tory Leader of the Opposition will that have come about
Can I just check. You believe it is nailed on, say p>0.9, that the Tories will lose the election, and you believe that after the election Jacob Rees-Mogg will stand for the leadership and win? Is that an accurate summary of your thoughts on this?
I believe the Tories will win the election and that regardless of whether they do or don't Jacob Rees-Mogg will never lead the party and quite possibly never even stand for the leadership either.
I would say there is at least a 50% chance Rees Mogg will be Tory Leader within a decade. Maybe not initially after losing power, maybe that will be Steve Barclay or Kemi Badenoch but after a second defeat quite possibly. Remember Corbyn became Labour leader after the defeat of 2015 not the 2010 defeat when Ed Miliband took over
Wishing Rees Mogg on us is entirely consistent with your support for Johnson Farage and Trump and would be a terrible day for the conservative party and the country
Well he is a conservative, even a hardline one. Why should a Conservative Party not sometimes be led by an ideological Conservative?
Because in this case it would also require their bring led.by an utter prat.
The Tories deserve to be mullered at the next election for numerous reasons, but I think Starmer could collapse during an election campaign. Increasingly he reminds me of Theresa May.
I was listening to him after the recent by-election win and thinking "It'd 'Brucie'! Without the charisma!".
"Didn't he do well?!"...
And now I can't unhear it...
Yes, he is wooden and timid, but doesn't that still beat petulant and patronising Sunak? Certainly that is what the polling says.
It might well do. I'm not sure it fills me with a sense of hope and optimism though. "Not petulant and patronising - tick!". Amazing. Almost 200 years of Socialist thought and here's where we are.
200 years of Tory pragmatism have managed to fall below even that floor.
.Just a perfect sentence in the Government’s reply to Trump’s request for more time:
“Rather than spend time complying with the Court’s order, the defendant drafted a filing as to why he did not have time to review and consider the 5-page proposed protective order.” https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1687982259997995008
The tactics Trump gas employed to frustrate his myriad opponents in the civil courts might not be so effective in defending a criminal proceeding.
Comments
The Conservatives were seen as competent operators, regardless of what you thought of their policies. No more.
Of course if the economy is bad under a new government even a non centrist can win, as Thatcher did in 1979
He was a proponent of the mixed economy and opposed to both unilateralism and the Common Market. It seems unlikely Britain would have joined the EEC so soon had he lived. It's perfectly possible he'd have served two terms as Labour Prime Minister.
* or sending his nanny to pick it up...
What is true is that no Labour government in Britain has ever brought about social reforms that would remove the Tory party's position, even when in opposition, as the "natural party of government" in this country. And because it's not removed, it continues.
The number of Labour leaders who have actually wanted to do something about this is very small. Aneurin Bevan is on it.
If it were ever to happen, it would happen fast. If anyone doesn't realise why this is, they could do better than to meditate on the meaning of the word "Establishment".
He let the cat out of the bag, to use another phrase, which people do all the time.
That was 3 years before he made his notorious remarks.
The NHS is a core part of the establishment - as a place for power, jobs etc. The patient stuff is a minor byproduct.
Similarly, environmental policies are now core Establishment values.
Both Eurosceptic. Both "who cares about reality, the important thing is what the people want". Both histrionic attention whores.
They've got a lot in common.
Another possible example of ratnering is Alison Rose and Coutts, which had this pretension of being an exclusive bank and very publicly wasn't able to keep riff raff like Nigel Farage out of it.
There are genuine revolutionaries who aren't so radical.
Being posh and wearing oversized jackets doesn't mean he is a conservative, even if he sounds like one - on the big questions clearly anything he wants should happen, no matter how radical.
Lights off, sit in the corridor…
There is no point being in power all the time if you are just going to be a government little different to New Labour or a LD led administration
*Switch him to a Nat West account, letter in the post.
**In a game of Tell The Truth, she lost to Nigel Farage.
Future Conservative prospects in the constituency will depend on how the Party rebuilds. The crystal ball becomes very foggy when that question is asked.
Low taxes, a smaller state, social conservatism, reduced immigration, tougher law and order and national sovereignty for starters
But yes, abolish the private schools. Abolish the monarchy. Abolish beneficial ownership. (Do those three on Day 1.) Income tax of a much more heavily progressive character. Crack down on medics and their racket, and pharmaceutical interests, so as to build a decent-quality state health service. (Erode deference, right?) Real encouragement of real potential (which everybody has) and the flushing of the ideology that some are born superior to others down the toilet where it belongs. Expose the City of London. Open the windows on many other nests of clientelism and corruption too so as to expose where the money has really been going, while the country has slid further and further downhill for the past 40+ years.
I've said it before and I'll say it again.
This isn't 1992, or 1997. Each election turns on its own.
Labour start on 202 seats, the Conservatives on 365.
For Labour, that's pretty much 1983. For the Conservatives that somewhere between 1987 and 1992.
The Conservatives lose 40 seats or less - majority still.
The Conservatives lose 40-50 seats - whilst not a majority, the DUP will bail them out, and combined with Sinn Fein's abstention, they're the only game in town.
The Conservatives lose 50-80 seats, and it's likely they're STILL the largest party (though putting together a coalition is extremely unlikely).
Only at losses of over 80 seats is it likely they'll lose largest party status.
Labour gain less than 80 - its likely they're still behind the Conservatives in seats.
Labour gain 80-120 - it's still a hung parliament.
Only at gains above 120 can they secure a majority. [1]
Only one election post war produced such a large swing in seats (I'm not going to count 1945 itself). Tony Blair and 1997 with 147 seat gains.
The next is Cameron in 2010 who got 93 seats.
Put simply, Starmer has to replace Cameron and make his swing the second best post war swing.
What's to stop Sunak deciding to simply throw everything at 350 defendable seats, and paper candidate the rest with only the air war to fight?
He won't win them all, but he might get 300. Add in a few shock surprises in seats he didn't expect to win, and that might leave the Conservatives as the only game in town..........
[1] I realise that due to both the SNP and Lib Dems, its not likely a straight switch from Conservative to Labour. The Conservatives could lose 90 seats, but if 30 of them are to the LD and only 60 to Labour, the Conservatives will remain the largest party at 375 against 362.
Likewise, if the Conservatives only lose 70, Labour can still overtake them as the largest party if they can smash the SNP.
And lower taxes? Maybe pensioners, but for sure not the working folk.
I lost my wedding ring a few years into our marriage, not sure how, but I was rather drunk at a friend's wedding. I now wear my great grandfather's wedding ring, resized to fit.
If the Conservative vote collapses, the LDs are much the more likely beneficiary in that kind of seat.
"Didn't he do well?!"...
And now I can't unhear it...
Truss to be fair to her did cut national insurance and stamp duty and cut the basic and top rates of income tax and duties on beer, wine and spirits but she didn't cut spending at the same time. Hence the markets reacted badly
I don't think Ratner's stuff was probably all that crap. Jewellery tends to have a massive mark up because jewellery shop owners tend to sell very few items and they have rent to pay. Ratner was disrupting that industry. He just gave into the temptation of being in the boy's club chuckling at his customers.
They're almost at a MiniTrue stage. "The State has gotten smaller by 20%! Rejoice!" :: state increases by 20%, taxes on working people go up by 20% ::
Labour _used_ to at least be honest about this stuff. And the Tories _used_ to be honest about what a small state/low-tax country meant - which gave you a straight choice on your tick.
Don't let it out. He'll sweep the country at the next election.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html
Oh, and listen to HYUFD's canvassing reports.
John Curtice once said (and I was in the room when he said it
"World Scout Jamboree in limbo as American and British groups pull out over extreme heat"
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/05/asia/scout-jamboree-south-korea-heat-wave-pullout-intl-hnk/index.html
But all those equations apply equally to Labour and the LibDems. Labour doesn't need to devote resources to seats it already holds, nor to potential gain number 200, it just needs to spend time and money on the seats it needs to flip. And the same is true of the LibDems.
[although, to be fair, if you have "...Hit by extreme heat, hundreds of participants at the event fell ill and were treated for heat-related ailments, prompting complaints from parents over the safety of their children..." then perhaps they do have cause]
“Rather than spend time complying with the Court’s order, the defendant drafted a filing as to why he did not have time to review and consider the 5-page proposed protective order.”
https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1687982259997995008
The tactics Trump gas employed to frustrate his myriad opponents in the civil courts might not be so effective in defending a criminal proceeding.