Options
The polling that should worry LAB majority punters – politicalbetting.com
The polling that should worry LAB majority punters – politicalbetting.com
The above breakdown from the latest Opinium poll looks at what those who voted CON at GE2019 are now saying.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
But I still think he will be PM after the next GE
The Tories, as has been said more than once, need an outright majority and that is not likely. They are uncoalitionable.
The more the country see him during the election campaign these figures will improve as the country loves a lawyer.
They are facing the same dilemma as I am - long time Tory voter, disgusted by the Boris era, hence left the party, and now facing either Sunak's Cons or Lab.
And you know what? I would have difficulty in voting Lab because I really don't think they like me.
I went to see my 93-year old mother the other day and her copy of the Times was open showing a picture of one Tony Blair. I asked her what she was reading (she is at the stage of remembering her maths tutor at school but not what she had for breakfast that day) and she replied that Tony Blair succeeded because he convinced people that his Labour Party didn't hate them and wanted to provide politics for all. A simple premise but one that I don't think your Party has followed for some time.
If true, and assuming no Lab2Con switchers, the CON vote would drop from 13,966,454 to 5,449,918, a loss of 8.5 million votes. That's appalling.
If that's true and there's no swingback and it's replicated at GE2024 then LabMaj is nailed on.
I have bet on a Majority and also on most seats. I expect both to come good, but I would not be amazed if only the second did.
It is very, very far from a ringing endorsement for Labour, but very, very much still in their favour.
It was a “battered deep fried cheese and smoked sausage sandwich”. I thought they were joking about the deep fried and battered bit
Or it would be something tempura-ish? I dunno. I just wanted a sandwich so maybe I let my hopes get the better of me
It was like a piece of massively over battered cod in a rubbish fish and chip shop, but inside it there wasn’t fish there was almost raw chewy dough and inside THAT was nasty cheese and a couple of small pieces of smoked sausage. All so hot it burned the mouth. Served with a hideously sweet
tartare sauce???
It’s actually quite hard to make a sandwich that is simultaneously ugly, disgusting, tasteless, weird, absurdly unhealthy and causes you pain if you try to eat it
Has anyone had a worse sandwich than that? THIS, my friends, is the political question of the day
But they're unlikely to be within the narrow window that presented such a golden opportunity (That they were always going to inevitably squander) with May again.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/voices-matt-healy-s-tone-deaf-attempt-to-support-lgbtq-rights-is-a-lesson-for-white-saviours-everywhere/ar-AA1ehrOg?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=c4ff0c9bb9a44af081c8cbdcb3b31974&ei=10
After a long day of travel, jetlag and little sleep, I feel like shit.
Welcome to the jet-set!
Laters...
While the Labour by-election win was the biggest majority ever overturned in such a contest, the Lib Dem result is bigger overall, shifting 19,000 blue majority to 11,000 votes to the good for the yellows.
The urge to get rid of Conservatives was very strong in both seats. It is worth remembering Labour start a long way back but regular 20 point poll leads would take a Theresa Mayesque electoral campaign to overcome.
Have also had ham sandwiches where the ham was a bit off. Those are rank.
- Yes, some of the ex-Con DKs will return but so will some of the ex-Lab DKs.
- A lot of the ex-Con DKs will have been first-time Con voters or motivated by Brexit and/or Corbyn. These will be a lot harder for the Tories to get back than the ex-Lab DKs. The comparison here is with 1992/97, when the Lab vote only went up by 2m but the Con one dropped by 5m.
- Anti-Con tactical voting will be much more of a thing than it was in 2019.
- 12% of the 2019 Con vote going direct to Lab is huge by the standards of the last decade.
- Can Con squeeze Reform? Maybe, to some extent, but (a) much of that vote will be so disillusioned that they'll vote RefUK anyway - see 2015 - and (b) Labour has its own Green / LD vote to squeeze.
- Scotland. Lab/SNP seats will be critical and, obviously, won't show up in the Con numbers.
You might not like Sunak or Hunt but they at least have a grip on the importance of stabilising the value of the pound and our national solvency more broadly.
That said, the DUP don't really need a deal. They have the direct rule from London they've always wanted.
Here's some ACTUAL TESTIMONY from Joseph Ziegler that
@jeddrosche somehow failed to mention: There are emails in the case file abt 6A problems and Trump's influence and THAT's why they didn't charge the case.
Wonder why Jedd left that out?
...I wonder why Jedd left out that Shapley didn't become a "whistleblower" until he had to turn over the emails he had failed to turn over in March 2022?
Again, Shapley's own testimony.
https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1683812944394457089
On the "liking" point, I think that there are few people left in Labour who hate anyone very much, but there's a broad failure to understand why anyone would still vote Tory - we can see why one might be a fan of Thatcher or indeed Boris, but currently the Government just seem a fag-end administration with no particular appeal. Most Labour people have a personal priority - the NHS, childcare, the environment, etc. - and you'd be right to think they will want to prioritise their favourite cause rather than simply governing dispassionately for all. But Starmer does get it - he's not at all interested in being the champion of a few causes at the expense of the wider common interest. I'm not sure he positively likes you, but you're safe against vindictive policies.
Starmer is trying to heed your advice and follow Blair's mid-90s playbook. Albeit with less charisma so he's not hitting the same heights in the opinion polls.
But comparing the actual vote counts from 1992 and 1997 is probably the best data we have;
Conservatives went from 14 million to 9.6 million, so down 4.4 million votes.
Labour went from 11.6 million to 13.5 million, so up 1.9 million votes.
Some of that difference is probably in the 0.8 million people who voted for the Referendum party, but there must also have been a chunk of Con to "see if there's anything good on the telly" party switching.
In the case of BBB2, it was snooker, Top Gear and a Horizon about hot air balloons.
And then when the election rolls round, its on the news all the time, they suddenly start to notice a bit, and maybe the opposition isn't quite as attractive as they thought, and maybe "free owls for all" isn't believable, and some of them do what they said they wouldn't, and vote for the bloody government again.
Did Cameron blow a big lead? Did May? Or were those leads built on sand?
tweetsXs:-I'm pleased that we have now fulfilled our pledge to make sure every state school in England has a defibrillator
https://twitter.com/GillianKeegan/status/1683750449168412673
Good news but are schoolchildren really keeling over with heart attacks on a daily basis, or even an annual basis? From what the news would have you believe, bleeding control kits for stab victims would be a better investment. Or give them both.
And even if you believe it all, as soon as one oldie Cons drops off the perch then a previous youngie Lab becomes an old Cons voter and a hitherto not old enough to vote teen becomes a Lab young voter and equilibrium is maintained.
Its back to the link on posted on the last thread giving the example of £250m throw at bin collection, but nobody knows if it was a good idea, if it was well spent, how effective it was, could that money have been spent elsewhere.
But good try
Tory former minister and chair of Climate Change Committee condemns ‘absolutely unacceptable’ attacks on Labour stance
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/labour-urged-to-work-with-tories-to-counter-ignorant-climate-policy-attacks
@kateferguson4
·
47m
William Hague says both parties must fight the next election with a promise of hope…
I’ve spoken to quite a few MPs who think it will actually be fought on the opposite - fear
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1683808289333682176
===
Personally, I think it will be worst and most negative, snarky and downright aggressive election in a long time.
Tories will throw the kitchen sink at Labour out of a raging at the dying of the light and Lab are gearing up to throw the dirt back imho.
So if 31% not voting became 25%, how many seats would the Tories automatically lose with their vote doing down by that kind of number?
It’s almost bound to be stale and bad
The latter. Starmer would prefer the SNP to bring down a Labour minority government as they did in 1979. So he can afford to face down the SNP because that outcome would be electorally beneficial for Labour in Scotland.
Lay it on. Squeeze some fresh lemon. Crack some kampot pepper
Honestly, it changes a very average £4 sandwich into something glorious. But you do have to spend another £3-4
But I’d rather pay £7 for a fantastic sandwich than £4 for something deeply mediocre. Life is short
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-66287208
...At least 34 people have been killed in Algeria and thousands evacuated after wildfires broke out across the country.
Of those killed, ten were soldiers who were battling the fires in Bejaia, the Algerian defence ministry said.
Outbreaks of 97 wildfires were recorded across 16 provinces affecting forest, crops and farmland on Monday.
Northern Algeria has been experiencing a record heatwave in recent days, with temperatures reaching 48C.
And temperatures in several regions in North Africa are up to 7C higher than normal for the time of year...
I recall someone driving a Landrover recently visited a school unexpectedly "after a medical episode" !
BHF:
https://www.bhf.org.uk/how-you-can-help/how-to-save-a-life/defibrillators
I would find the idea of voting Tory these days completely alien because most days one of them is in the press saying how much people like me are a problem. The woke blob, metropolitan liberals, remoaners, Londoners more broadly. Why would I vote for a party who profess to hate my type?
The SNP - particularly their footsoldiers - are at Corbyn levels in their sneering at "yoons" or the English, but then they want or don't need them as voters. They just need fellow pro-indy travellers.
The Lib Dems try to be nicey-nicey with everyone, and it's easier now than it was in the aftermath of the referendum, but there are still large swathes of the population who think the Lib Dems hold them in contempt for voting Brexit.
Starmer is attempting to avoid looking like he hates any groups in society, except of course his own far Left. I suspect there will be residual suspicion among traditionalist voters that he thinks they are all racist transphobic bigots though.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/jul/25/bbc-apologises-lgbtq-rights-question-morocco-captain-womens-world-cup
So under FPTP a huge factor will be tactical voting as it was then.
If 2019 Tory voters now DK return to the Tories it could still be a hung parliament in England
How many of them die/do not recover if a defibrillator is not available?
How many of them die/do not recover if a defibrillator is available?
It's worth bearing in mind that 30%+ of the electorate don't vote in any given election. Everyone knows people who think it's a waste of time, they're all the same, etc. Nobody feels odd or extreme if they decide not to vote.
They might be disingenuous wins, but a win is a win.
Labour needs to find the backbone to defend its policies and to explain them. The Tories might have more trouble then.
Wasn't 1992 Conservatives the highest number of votes ever won by any party in any election ever in UK?
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26386373/
Can't speak for the review, but Resuscitation is a pukka journal - they've published me*, several times!
(not open access, unless I find an archive copy)
*on second thoughts, maybe they're not...
ETA: Authors' accepted copy: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282044437_Out-of-hospital_Cardiac_Arrest_in_Schools_A_Systematic_Review
(Researchgate make it look like you need to register/log in to download, but just close the login dialogue and the file downloads)
https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/35/13/868/633740
Edit: crude enough for a sniff test - about 2K [edit] deaths in English schools, about 25K schools - so better than one in ten chance of a particular kit being used.
Corbyn should have stuck the boot in against corruption, lies, the private schools, the City, and the ruling class generally, but he's too nice. "Tories like fighting in the gutter because that's where they belong, takers of Russian money that they are." But of course he didn't say that. He tried "They go low, we go high".
The next election will be just as nasty, perhaps not so personalised nasty, given the way Sunak's and Starmer's respective brands have been positioned, but it's not even clear they'll still be the leaders.
Re. Sunak, there could be 18 months to go and there are bound to be some more by-elections.
To put it very crudely, the Carlton Club or men in grey suits or association of constituency chairmen after taking phone calls from Jacob, or however we are supposed to frame it, may well decide that they want to honkify the senior rank of the visible party to win votes and if they do it could be back to hedge fund work for Sunak. Indeed. And they can say any old sh** to win an election and not let it affect what they do afterwards - international commitments on green, deals signed, mustn't welsh on them, and so on. They're politicians after all.
There is the question about out of hours/out of term time. Some standardisation in location and access would make these most useful.
I've also wondered about rates of vandalism/theft for AEDs.