politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 an
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I wholly agree with this SO. I hope you don't take it as a criticism...SouthamObserver said:Poor old EdM. It's hard to see a way back for him. At least he'll be gone this time next year. Whoever takes over has a hell of a job on his or her hands. Labour is slowly dying of complacency and condescension. There really is more to politics than theNHS and Not Being The Tories.
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Things aren't much better for Cameron and the Tories IMO.SouthamObserver said:Poor old EdM. It's hard to see a way back for him. At least he'll be gone this time next year. Whoever takes over has a hell of a job on his or her hands. Labour is slowly dying of complacency and condescension. There really is more to politics than theNHS and Not Being The Tories.
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Nope! Get a Brain. This isn't Japan. Just in case it has passed your intelligence, this is the UK.JBriskin said:
Sehr Guht.Edin_Rokz said:An interesting thought has occurred to me, if, the UK becomes a land of milk and honey, totally independent of the hated EU, EC and other related acronyms, will the UK become a land where no one from anywhere else not want to come to?
This brings to mind the question as to who will do the work that the Uker's do not want to do, like wipe the backsides of the elderly incontinent or pick the fruit and veg from our green and verdant fields?
Then again, will the border patrol/HMRC (aka Customs and Excise)/military/police/Captain Mainwaring /Uncle Tom Cobbley and all be able to restrict illegal attempts to enter the UK? They certainly do not have a good historical record. Even during nearly all wars that the UK has been involved in for over 1000 years, with all the force that the governments have been able to provide, smuggling has always been a financially successful business. Booze, drugs, tobacco, sugar, and people.
Why do these people want to come the UK? I heard rather eloquently put by a young African on R4, they are pursuing a dream. A dream of law, of being paid for work, of living without fear of the police and a chance to live free.
Where would you, Dear Reader, want to live and what would you do, to live a dream?
We've totally done this though. It goes something like-
Demos-Demos-Not,Japan-Not,Japan
Is that good enough for you?
Honestly, somebody, somewhere, GisaJob
If you are talking about Nihon before 1860 and you turned up on the coast unannounced, you would be missing a head shortly. Ooops! obviously that is what you want. A Guillotine at every port. Oh! sorry again, that is so French. What about borrowing the Widow Maker from the RSM? Proven to work.0 -
More level pegging for the Blue Team. I remain amazed that Labour are doing so badly with 6 months to go. EdM really isn't helping.
Off to watch more vampire genre TV - maybe see you later. Constantine awaits.0 -
FalseFlag doesn't do yellow boxes!Charles said:
@FalseFlag appeared pretty much when @Avery leftMyBurningEars said:
I see Avery has taught you well!Sunil_Prasannan said:ELBOW Lab lead
17th Aug 3.01
24th Aug 3.64
31st Aug 3.83
7th Sep 3.32
14th Sep 4.64
21st Sep 3.55
28th Sep 4.35
5th Oct 2.89
12th Oct 2.56
19th Oct 2.44
26th Oct 1.08
(Does he post here anymore?)
But since both take their dictation from Putin it's hard to tell the difference0 -
Turnout - or lack of it - will save Ed's bacon if UKIP wins, especially if Labour gets most votes on the first round.another_richard said:If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?
It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.
And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.
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If UKIP gets another chuck of the Tory vote we will begin to ask the question of when will UKIP surpass them.anotherDave said:
If UKIP can take another chunk out of the Conservatives' numbers before the European Arrest Warrant vote, it could do some good.Speedy said:
The problem is that UKIP is rising again but this time without elections or by elections, so this is a more natural movement.Artist said:The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.
From 2013 till 2 weeks ago UKIP rise was aided with election and byelection coverages, this time it is a raw movement up.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/lets-have-british-justice--not-the-eus-9819682.html
The most interesting moment will be that one, and I would be wondering if TSE would consider voting UKIP to beat Labour if (I say if) the Tories are pushed into 3rd place in the national polls.0 -
They don't have the same style. FalseFlag doesn't namedrop as much as Seth/Avery did, aside from being swearier and less financially and politically literate.Charles said:
@FalseFlag appeared pretty much when @Avery leftMyBurningEars said:
I see Avery has taught you well!Sunil_Prasannan said:ELBOW Lab lead
17th Aug 3.01
24th Aug 3.64
31st Aug 3.83
7th Sep 3.32
14th Sep 4.64
21st Sep 3.55
28th Sep 4.35
5th Oct 2.89
12th Oct 2.56
19th Oct 2.44
26th Oct 1.08
(Does he post here anymore?)
But since both take their dictation from Putin it's hard to tell the difference
I actually quite enjoyed Avery/Seth's interventions re Russia. He was very well-informed, apparently as a result of his (alleged) career there. So long as everything he said was taken with a suitable pinch of salt - he definitely had an eye for irony.
He was good for random asides on everything from poetry (think he was an English lit graduate, definitely into the arts - hence his claims to have met SeanT and I think Roger in the 1980s) or obscure technical details about Cyrillic typography (to which extent I'm pretty sure his claims of Russian expertise were genuine) to the family tree of Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet. Made the PB "night shift" more entertaining regardless of the advisability of betting anything based on carefully selected yellow boxes.0 -
They're failing by "not being the Tories" as well!AndyJS said:
Things aren't much better for Cameron and the Tories IMO.SouthamObserver said:Poor old EdM. It's hard to see a way back for him. At least he'll be gone this time next year. Whoever takes over has a hell of a job on his or her hands. Labour is slowly dying of complacency and condescension. There really is more to politics than theNHS and Not Being The Tories.
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We are like Japan in many ways. I could type more... I shalntEdin_Rokz said:
Nope! Get a Brain. This isn't Japan. Just in case it has passed your intelligence, this is the UK.JBriskin said:
Sehr Guht.Edin_Rokz said:An interesting thought has occurred to me, if, the UK becomes a land of milk and honey, totally independent of the hated EU, EC and other related acronyms, will the UK become a land where no one from anywhere else not want to come to?
This brings to mind the question as to who will do the work that the Uker's do not want to do, like wipe the backsides of the elderly incontinent or pick the fruit and veg from our green and verdant fields?
Then again, will the border patrol/HMRC (aka Customs and Excise)/military/police/Captain Mainwaring /Uncle Tom Cobbley and all be able to restrict illegal attempts to enter the UK? They certainly do not have a good historical record. Even during nearly all wars that the UK has been involved in for over 1000 years, with all the force that the governments have been able to provide, smuggling has always been a financially successful business. Booze, drugs, tobacco, sugar, and people.
Why do these people want to come the UK? I heard rather eloquently put by a young African on R4, they are pursuing a dream. A dream of law, of being paid for work, of living without fear of the police and a chance to live free.
Where would you, Dear Reader, want to live and what would you do, to live a dream?
We've totally done this though. It goes something like-
Demos-Demos-Not,Japan-Not,Japan
Is that good enough for you?
Honestly, somebody, somewhere, GisaJob
If you are talking about Nihon before 1860 and you turned up on the coast unannounced, you would be missing a head shortly. Ooops! obviously that is what you want. A Guillotine at every port. Oh! sorry again, that is so French. What about borrowing the Widow Maker from the RSM? Proven to work.
My response:
You appear to be, perhaps, over-emphasising the origin of the language of English.
Care to respond?
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iSam - what's the scoop on our bet if Ed is no longer Labour leader. If he goes and it stands, I'll pay up in advance of the GE.0
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ELBOW 19th October: UKIP 17.1%Robert_Eve said:Great to see UKIP still on the up.
ELBOW 26th October: UKIP 15.9%0 -
What I think is utterly bonkers is that when Labour had a lead of ~5-6 in the polls I was able to lay the tories at 4, and now it's level pegging I've been able to wipe out the liability by rebacking at 5.20
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There was also another Ashcroft back on June 1 which had Lab 34, Con 25, UKIP 19, LD 6 for a Con+Lab of 59 and an even lower Con+Lab+LD of 65.RobD said:Lowest was Lord Ashcroft last week C 28, L 31, LD 7, UKIP 18, OTH 16. Sum of 59%
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It looks from all the evidence like Lab and Con are level pegging?Speedy said:
The Tories are in a worse condition though.GIN1138 said:Things are falling apart for Labour.
A decent Opposition should be at least 10% ahead right now surely?
All the way through this Parliament everyone has been glossing over the fact that Ed Miliband just wasn't doing well enough. Now, with months still to go to the election Lab and Con are level.
Today's polls are utterly dreadful for Labour.
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Well, Darling would be a more plausible candidate for such a caretaker than Brown. I suppose Harriet Harman would be one possibility.Flightpath said:
For that to happen the party would have to agree on an uncontested election with a consensus candidate. This I would suggest have to be a relatively mature candidate who could be relied upon to resign after the election after shoring up the Labour vote. It would be an admission of defeat, of being reduced to shoring up your core vote and to protect what they have not win back more.notme said:
That is the reality of how things work. No matter what procedures etc exist. When senior members of the party, shadow cabinet members, former big hitters come to him and tell him that he needs to stand aside for the good of the party, he will go.another_richard said:
But if things continue to worsen for Labour over the winter EdM will get the visit from the men in grey suits followed, if necessary, by the visit from the men in white coats.AndyJS said:
There's no mechanism for getting rid of him unless he resigns which is unlikely.another_richard said:If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?
It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.
And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.
Since the only such candidate that comes to mind is Gordon Brown, I do not see it working.0 -
Was it the omnishambles forgetmenot speech the start of the trend? Even lefty comment on the usual comedy-current affairs radio show was withering about the speech and the Mirror entrapment story. Whats the phrase..? Have Labour Miliband et al jumped the shark?OblitusSumMe said:
Beginning of a trend? The question is whether the established trend is continuing - as the Labour lead has already been declining over recent weeks.murali_s said:Disappointing polls for Labour - no hiding that. Is this a beginning of a trend or just a blip. As ever, time will tell...
If so they are a bit unlucky if UKIP can get away with calling their own supporters 'ting tongs' and siding with Polish neonazis - not to mention blatantly misusing their EU expenses. Thats being eaten by the shark.-1 -
All 5 polls today have Ed is Crap as PM
But more swing-back to come and i think chance of a majority with Ed is Crap as leader is starting to look remote.
Tomorrows BJESUS shows NOM0 -
Nothing about tuition fees ?slade said:After the Ryan Coeetze 'leak' from last week we now have the Lib Dem's pre-election manifesto - it's actual called a 'forward offer'. There are 5 main points - balance the budget by 2018, cut income tax by £400 for low and middle earners, guarantee equal care for mental and physical health, ensure all teachers are qualified and protect education spending, pass a new Nature Law to protect the environment and fight climate change.
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More GE position:
Con Most votes Most Seats -17.96
Con Most Votes Labour most seats +489.65
Lab Most votes Con most seats -38.23
Lab most votes Lab Most Seats -61
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Yowzer - well played BJObigjohnowls said:All 5 polls today have Ed is Crap as PM
But more swing-back to come and i think chance of a majority with Ed is Crap as leader is starting to look remote.
Tomorrows BJESUS shows NOM
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Indeed. But I don't really care about them. I'd like to be able to vote Labour again one day.AndyJS said:
Things aren't much better for Cameron and the Tories IMO.SouthamObserver said:Poor old EdM. It's hard to see a way back for him. At least he'll be gone this time next year. Whoever takes over has a hell of a job on his or her hands. Labour is slowly dying of complacency and condescension. There really is more to politics than theNHS and Not Being The Tories.
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So what left wing polices do UKIP follow to attract all these Labour voters? A list would be helpfulanother_richard said:
Beyond a certain point UKIP takes more votes from Labour than the Conservatives.isam said:Ah, the good old days...
April 2013
tim said:
"Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m
Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%
Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true."
We are certainly beyond that point now.0 -
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My apologies, I had always been told it was the Widow Maker, wrong, it was the Maiden:
http://www.nms.ac.uk/explore/collections-stories/scottish-history-and-archaeology/the-maiden/0 -
A few points to note about today's Comres scores:
It's the equal lowest Labour score with Comres of the parliament, last recorded on 17/6/10.
It's the equal lowest Labour score with any company this year (Ashcroft, 5/10/14).
Comres had UKIP at 20% on 10/4/14 - am I missing something?Scott_P said:
@catherine_mayer: Another day, another high for #UKIP: 19% in latest @Andrew_ComRes poll. Labour voters switching to kippers stand at 9%Scrapheap_as_was said:The heady 35% strategy..... where have all those Red Lib Dems gone or was it the Brown core whose leaked off to UKIP?
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The Tories are in a worse condition because even if we'd expect Labour to be miles in front right now, it is still easier for them to win most seats than it is for the Tories, even if achieving should be a given with a government as weak as the Tories. It doesn't mean things aren't bad for Labour, but they might still get a result which flatters them, but the chances of such being true for the Tories is about nil.GIN1138 said:
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Care to respond to my point?Edin_Rokz said:My apologies, I had always been told it was the Widow Maker, wrong, it was the Maiden:
http://www.nms.ac.uk/explore/collections-stories/scottish-history-and-archaeology/the-maiden/
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Weirdly, I think this latest leg of Labour's decline started with the Carswell defection. You certainly wouldn't have expected the Labour lead to decline since then, but it has.Flightpath said:
Was it the omnishambles forgetmenot speech the start of the trend? Even lefty comment on the usual comedy-current affairs radio show was withering about the speech and the Mirror entrapment story. Whats the phrase..? Have Labour Miliband et al jumped the shark?OblitusSumMe said:
Beginning of a trend? The question is whether the established trend is continuing - as the Labour lead has already been declining over recent weeks.murali_s said:Disappointing polls for Labour - no hiding that. Is this a beginning of a trend or just a blip. As ever, time will tell...
If so they are a bit unlucky if UKIP can get away with calling their own supporters 'ting tongs' and siding with Polish neonazis - not to mention blatantly misusing their EU expenses. Thats being eaten by the shark.0 -
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 30s30 seconds ago
The Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) weekly LAB/CON/UKIP/LD scores since 17th Aug
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5268699823582822410 -
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When they target Labour more than the Tories, which they will if Miliband becomes PM. At the moment, they're hedging their bets.chestnut said:At what point do we contemplate UKIP as a split on the left, not the right?
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You had better ask Carswell that. How left wing is he? What left wing policies is he proposing or supporting as a kipper?chestnut said:At what point do we contemplate UKIP as a split on the left, not the right?
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Cameron refuses to join Ed and Nick in wearing a "This Is What A Feminist Looks Like" T-shirt:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/27/david-cameron-this-is-not-what-a-feminist-looks-like0 -
I think that's correct, and it's hard to predict the outcome. The ComRes shifts are from what we all thought was a Labour outlier, but there's no doubt that the parties are virtually tied and that UKIP has been hurting Labour more lately, though they've apparently still got more potential among current Tory leaners. There does come a point where the "wasted vote" argument stops working, and UKIP must be getting quite close.Speedy said:
I think the Rochester By-election will produce it.AndyJS said:A slight change in the numbers would have resulted in Con, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s. How long before that happens?
And what of the TV debates? Can Farage really be kept out if UKIP is on, say, 20%?
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SouthamObserver said:
iSam - what's the scoop on our bet if Ed is no longer Labour leader. If he goes and it stands, I'll pay up in advance of the GE.
I was wondering about that.. I guess it stands if he is the candidate in Doncaster North doesn't it? If he resigns and steps down from Doncaster North obviously it is void.. then again it was kind of made on the understanding he was Labour leader I suppose..SouthamObserver said:iSam - what's the scoop on our bet if Ed is no longer Labour leader. If he goes and it stands, I'll pay up in advance of the GE.
I don't know!
I feel bad for Ed, I don't like to see someone get a kicking.. you never know, he could turn it around yet!0 -
Unsure Labour voters seem to be going everywhere apart from to the Conservatives. Why a number of 2010 Lib Dem switchers are now moving to UKIP can't really be explained, apart from a general anti-establishment feeling at the moment.0
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"if you can't enjoy the site of internal labour running around the country stabbing everyone in site then you have no joy in your life" Alex Massie (don't know if he's got a blue tick)(SBBC2258c)0
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It's interesting that the LDs on 8% is no longer news. Labour is fortunate that Nick Clegg is going to stay until the bitter end.
With Labour struggling one wonders whether they could do well under new management.
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Either Alan Johnson or Yvette Cooper would do a good job as leader. Pity they can't be brought in quickly from a Labour point of view.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. But I don't really care about them. I'd like to be able to vote Labour again one day.AndyJS said:
Things aren't much better for Cameron and the Tories IMO.SouthamObserver said:Poor old EdM. It's hard to see a way back for him. At least he'll be gone this time next year. Whoever takes over has a hell of a job on his or her hands. Labour is slowly dying of complacency and condescension. There really is more to politics than theNHS and Not Being The Tories.
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What do we make of these two bandwagon jumpers ;-)
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/27/david-cameron-this-is-not-what-a-feminist-looks-like0 -
Its wwc voters that UKIP are attracting not leftwing voters.Flightpath said:
So what left wing polices do UKIP follow to attract all these Labour voters? A list would be helpfulanother_richard said:
Beyond a certain point UKIP takes more votes from Labour than the Conservatives.isam said:Ah, the good old days...
April 2013
tim said:
"Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m
Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%
Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true."
We are certainly beyond that point now.
Labour have the largest wwc voting block through the "our family's always been Labour, they're the party of the working class" mentality.
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It's not that that's keeping him safe: it's that there doesn't appear to be anyone else who fancies the gig. If there were a credible alternative that the shadow cabinet could unite around, in the way that the Tories did around Howard after IDS was dumped, they could threaten to resign en mass unless he went first. Or the unions could pull the plug on funding.AndyJS said:
There's no mechanism for getting rid of him unless he resigns which is unlikely.another_richard said:If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?
It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.
And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.
But there isn't.0 -
With the Tories stuck at 30%, with every point UKIP rises the Tories will have problems keeping their voters together instead of voting for the real thing. The closer UKIP gets to the Tories the more FPTP will turn from a detriment to their advantage.GIN1138 said:
It looks from all the evidence like Lab and Con are level pegging?Speedy said:
The Tories are in a worse condition though.GIN1138 said:Things are falling apart for Labour.
A decent Opposition should be at least 10% ahead right now surely?
All the way through this Parliament everyone has been glossing over the fact that Ed Miliband just wasn't doing well enough. Now, with months still to go to the election Lab and Con are level.
Today's polls are utterly dreadful for Labour.
Here's an example with a question, if UKIP pushes the Tories 3rd in national polls would you consider voting for UKIP to keep Labour out?0 -
Nice catch. A UKIP/Con coalition with a majority of -2 would definitely not be heavy on zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...Sunil_Prasannan said:
UKIP+Con = 323 would just about do it, assuming there are 5 Shinners in NI.edmundintokyo said:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=25&TVCON=&LAB=25&TVLAB=&LIB=12&TVLIB=&UKIP=30®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Yisam said:Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying
"Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
LAB 25.00% 259
CON 25.00% 210
UKIP 30.00% 113
LIB 12.00% 39
UKIP+Con are still short, so pretty much the only viable coalition is Lab+Con grand coalition, presumably led by Ed Miliband.
Note the lack of zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz0 -
It is quite a left wing idea to artificially protect the workforce by refusing competition from outside sources... that's what restricting economic migration from the EU is in my bookFlightpath said:
So what left wing polices do UKIP follow to attract all these Labour voters? A list would be helpfulanother_richard said:
Beyond a certain point UKIP takes more votes from Labour than the Conservatives.isam said:Ah, the good old days...
April 2013
tim said:
"Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m
Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%
Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true."
We are certainly beyond that point now.0 -
It's good to see UKIPs numbers going up incrementally over time. It suggests a trend, rather than a fad. Outpolling the Tories upon launch as the SDP did - fad.
Also, the EU seems to have forgotten that our rebate is in their gift only because we give them money in the first place. No rebate, no subs. I don't think for a minute Cameron can be trusted to stand firm, but it's not reaĺly in his hands any more.0 -
Pulpstar said:
ELBOW this week has them on 7.3%, joint lowest score (with 28th Sep).0 -
Famous last words...kle4 said:but the chances of such being true for the Tories is about nil.
1. The Tories can still expect to receive some swingback between now and election (as can the Lib-Dems) Tories will probably get most of their swingback from UKIP, Lib-Dems from Labour.
2. The Tories are in government which means they have more options to come up with policies that may help their cause. What exactly can Labour do to improve their ever decreasing polling rating?
Remember, Labour's poll rating has been slowly deflating since spring 2013 and it's very likely it will have further to fall between now and polling day.
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Astonishing Comres figures tonight, Labour on Kinnock's total in 1987, the Tories on Major's in 1997, we really are in a race to see who can fall the lowest rather than any real mandate next year!0
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Was the old, working class Labour Party vote ever really left wing, whatever left wing might mean?Flightpath said:So what left wing polices do UKIP follow to attract all these Labour voters? A list would be helpful
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So we have the Tories at 2001 levels, Labour at 2010 levels and the Libdems down to 1960's levels. The end of the post war consensus?0
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Alan Johnson ?!AndyJS said:
Either Alan Johnson or Yvette Cooper would do a good job as leader. Pity they can't be brought in quickly from a Labour point of view.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed. But I don't really care about them. I'd like to be able to vote Labour again one day.AndyJS said:
Things aren't much better for Cameron and the Tories IMO.SouthamObserver said:Poor old EdM. It's hard to see a way back for him. At least he'll be gone this time next year. Whoever takes over has a hell of a job on his or her hands. Labour is slowly dying of complacency and condescension. There really is more to politics than theNHS and Not Being The Tories.
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UKIP 19% with both men and women.anotherDave said:ComRes tables are out.
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1301/the-independent-political-poll.htm
22%-24% with all ages >35.
p.21, table 6.0 -
The old working class Labour vote marched to defend Enoch Powellchestnut said:
Was the old, working class Labour Party vote ever really left wing, whatever left wing might mean?Flightpath said:So what left wing polices do UKIP follow to attract all these Labour voters? A list would be helpful
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Dan Hodges will be right, but for the wrong reasons. He continually insisted Labour needed to move closer to the "centre ground" and embrace Tory economic policies. Yet it's been over the past 12 months, when Labour have done precisely that with Ed Balls' constant wittering on about "tough spending decisions" and no hint of a suggestion of Labour actually doing anything to help poor people, that their lead has crumbled.
All that said, as dire as Labour's position is, I do think people shouldn't gloss over that the Tories are still doing mediocre at best. They are still at their levels of the peak of Omnishambles in 2012, and barely above 1997 levels. Labour's collapse is because they've leaked support to the Greens, UKIP and the SNP, but very little has gone to the Tories. The Tories' win next May (quite possibly a small majority) is going to be the most lukewarm "victory" in British election history.0 -
That was a ComRes online poll, this is a ComRes phone poll.david_herdson said:A few points to note about today's Comres scores:
It's the equal lowest Labour score with Comres of the parliament, last recorded on 17/6/10.
It's the equal lowest Labour score with any company this year (Ashcroft, 5/10/14).
Comres had UKIP at 20% on 10/4/14 - am I missing something?Scott_P said:
@catherine_mayer: Another day, another high for #UKIP: 19% in latest @Andrew_ComRes poll. Labour voters switching to kippers stand at 9%Scrapheap_as_was said:The heady 35% strategy..... where have all those Red Lib Dems gone or was it the Brown core whose leaked off to UKIP?
I think 19% is the highest for a ComRes phone poll.0 -
Or, in wide-angleSunil_Prasannan said:ELBOW Lab lead
17th Aug 3.01
24th Aug 3.64
31st Aug 3.83
7th Sep 3.32
14th Sep 4.64
21st Sep 3.55
28th Sep 4.35
5th Oct 2.89
12th Oct 2.56
19th Oct 2.44
26th Oct 1.08
As March's 3.9 will be dropping out this month, that figure is almost certain to drop again this month, which I'll be compiling later this week.
6 month rolling PB average Labour lead:
Jan 2013 9.4
Mar 2013 10.0
May 2013 9.2
Jul 2013 8.3
Sep 2013 6.7
Nov 2013 6.2
Jan 2014 5.7
Mar 2014 5.3
May 2014 4.7
Jul 2014 3.8
Sep 2014 3.40 -
Indeed Hodges is still wrong because people are abandoning the political centre in favour of clear cut right wing or left wing parties and views.Danny565 said:Dan Hodges will be right, but for the wrong reasons. He continually insisted Labour needed to move closer to the "centre ground" and embrace Tory economic policies. Yet it's been over the past 12 months, when Labour have done precisely that with Ed Balls' constant wittering on about "tough spending decisions" and no hint of a suggestion of Labour actually doing anything to help poor people, that their lead has crumbled.
All that said, as dire as Labour's position is, I do think people shouldn't gloss over that the Tories are still doing mediocre at best. They are still at their levels of the peak of Omnishambles in 2012, and barely above 1997 levels. Labour's collapse is because they've leaked support to the Greens, UKIP and the SNP.
The base of the 2 big parties want them to move towards their own partisan views, they want the Tories to become conservative and Labour to become socialist again.0 -
I'll never be a journo at this rate.
Someone mail me Excel please...0 -
Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?0 -
Actually Labour's main problem isn't policy, it's that Ed Miliband has never been able to connect with voters and Labour in mid-term never did well enough (A maximum 16% lead in a couple of polls late 2012 was VERY mediocre given the circumstances)Danny565 said:Dan Hodges will be right, but for the wrong reasons. He continually insisted Labour needed to move closer to the "centre ground" and embrace Tory economic policies. Yet it's been over the past 12 months, when Labour have done precisely that with Ed Balls' constant wittering on about "tough spending decisions" and no hint of a suggestion of Labour actually doing anything to help poor people, that their lead has crumbled.
All that said, as dire as Labour's position is, I do think people shouldn't gloss over that the Tories are still doing mediocre at best. They are still at their levels of the peak of Omnishambles in 2012, and barely above 1997 levels. Labour's collapse is because they've leaked support to the Greens, UKIP and the SNP, but very little has gone to the Tories. The Tories' win next May (quite possibly a small majority) is going to be the most lukewarm "victory" in British election history.
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I've been saying for months that we shouldn't take too much notice of polls until IndyRef and the conference season were out of the way, but that we should start looking for a Lab->Con swing beginning in November. A few more days to go, but perhaps we are seeing the start of this. Those who thought that the polls of mid-2014 were a good guide to May 2015 were, of course, kidding themselves. On past form, support will shift over the next few months, and most probably towards the governing party. (The LibDems have bizarrely decided to opt out of this bounce by differentiating themselves from the government, and therefore from the government's success on the economy. A big error.)
What I hadn't quite predicted was the nature of the movement which, tentatively at least, we seem to be seeing: a direct Lab->UKIP switch. Further support is probably ebbing away from Labour towards the Greens, the SNP and 'can't be bothered to vote'. I'd further expect a drift back to the Conservatives from the early Con->UKIP switchers as the election comes into focus, especially those who actually want a referendum and for whom the EU is a key issue. As I've said before, the key to the next election is the extent to which current UKIP supporters swing back asymmetrically to the parties they voted for in 2010. With UKIP currently in the high teens, that is a key group - at least as or more important than Mike's fabled LibDem->Lab switchers.
The odds on Con Maj are a snip at the moment; I'm all green, but with hindsight I traded out my pro-Labour position too early. Anyone who hasn't done the latter would be well advised to take advantage of the current odds while they last, IMO, but do your own research.0 -
Well they could *adopt* some popular policies...MarqueeMark said:Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?
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I can't even tell if you're being serious.MarqueeMark said:Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?
If I was morally allowed to write things in my diary I would say about today-
#fixsuperbowland2Bngate0 -
Well if you don't like Ed Miliband because his face looks ugly and doesn't have the best voice you can complain to God for giving that to him.GIN1138 said:
Actually Labour's main problem isn't policy, it's that Ed Miliband has never been able to connect with voters and Labour in mid-term never did well enough (A maximum 16% lead in a couple of polls late 2012 was VERY mediocre given the circumstances)Danny565 said:Dan Hodges will be right, but for the wrong reasons. He continually insisted Labour needed to move closer to the "centre ground" and embrace Tory economic policies. Yet it's been over the past 12 months, when Labour have done precisely that with Ed Balls' constant wittering on about "tough spending decisions" and no hint of a suggestion of Labour actually doing anything to help poor people, that their lead has crumbled.
All that said, as dire as Labour's position is, I do think people shouldn't gloss over that the Tories are still doing mediocre at best. They are still at their levels of the peak of Omnishambles in 2012, and barely above 1997 levels. Labour's collapse is because they've leaked support to the Greens, UKIP and the SNP, but very little has gone to the Tories. The Tories' win next May (quite possibly a small majority) is going to be the most lukewarm "victory" in British election history.
I prefer to choose based on merits not appearance.0 -
Tory incompetence/remember how much you hated ThatcherMarqueeMark said:Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?0 -
EU referendum?RobD said:
Well they could *adopt* some popular policies...MarqueeMark said:Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?
Free owls?
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Thanks.Speedy said:
That was a ComRes online poll, this is a ComRes phone poll.david_herdson said:A few points to note about today's Comres scores:
It's the equal lowest Labour score with Comres of the parliament, last recorded on 17/6/10.
It's the equal lowest Labour score with any company this year (Ashcroft, 5/10/14).
Comres had UKIP at 20% on 10/4/14 - am I missing something?Scott_P said:
@catherine_mayer: Another day, another high for #UKIP: 19% in latest @Andrew_ComRes poll. Labour voters switching to kippers stand at 9%Scrapheap_as_was said:The heady 35% strategy..... where have all those Red Lib Dems gone or was it the Brown core whose leaked off to UKIP?
I think 19% is the highest for a ComRes phone poll.0 -
Well sure, but maybe he hasn't connected to people based on that merit? He seems generally uninspiring but with flashes of promise from my perspective, but even many in Labour seem less than thrilled with him, and if he and his supporters or other defenders put that down to his looks or voice, that would be a mistake, even if it would be absurd to suggest the Tories have not been pushing the Ed is weird line (briefly replaced by an Ed is dangerous line, but that seems to have been dropped again).Speedy said:
Well if you don't like Ed Miliband because his face looks ugly and doesn't have the best voice you can complain to God for giving that to him.GIN1138 said:
Actually Labour's main problem isn't policy, it's that Ed Miliband has never been able to connect with voters and Labour in mid-term never did well enough (A maximum 16% lead in a couple of polls late 2012 was VERY mediocre given the circumstances)Danny565 said:Dan Hodges will be right, but for the wrong reasons. He continually insisted Labour needed to move closer to the "centre ground" and embrace Tory economic policies. Yet it's been over the past 12 months, when Labour have done precisely that with Ed Balls' constant wittering on about "tough spending decisions" and no hint of a suggestion of Labour actually doing anything to help poor people, that their lead has crumbled.
All that said, as dire as Labour's position is, I do think people shouldn't gloss over that the Tories are still doing mediocre at best. They are still at their levels of the peak of Omnishambles in 2012, and barely above 1997 levels. Labour's collapse is because they've leaked support to the Greens, UKIP and the SNP, but very little has gone to the Tories. The Tories' win next May (quite possibly a small majority) is going to be the most lukewarm "victory" in British election history.
I prefer to choose based on merits not appearance.
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That's right, and even most people in the so-called "centre ground" are crying out for some politicians to grab the bull by the horns and come up with some proper ideas to make things better, rather than the fiddling around at the edges that the 3 main parties are all content with.Speedy said:
The base of the 2 big parties want them to move towards their own partisan views, they want the Tories to become conservative and Labour to become socialist again.0 -
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/20/article-2662719-1EEE326200000578-499_634x359.jpgMarqueeMark said:
EU referendum?RobD said:
Well they could *adopt* some popular policies...MarqueeMark said:Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?
Free owls?0 -
I simply don't get the "ugly" comments.. he is quite a handsome bloke, just not a frontmanSpeedy said:
Well if you don't like Ed Miliband because his face looks ugly and doesn't have the best voice you can complain to God for giving that to him.GIN1138 said:
Actually Labour's main problem isn't policy, it's that Ed Miliband has never been able to connect with voters and Labour in mid-term never did well enough (A maximum 16% lead in a couple of polls late 2012 was VERY mediocre given the circumstances)Danny565 said:Dan Hodges will be right, but for the wrong reasons. He continually insisted Labour needed to move closer to the "centre ground" and embrace Tory economic policies. Yet it's been over the past 12 months, when Labour have done precisely that with Ed Balls' constant wittering on about "tough spending decisions" and no hint of a suggestion of Labour actually doing anything to help poor people, that their lead has crumbled.
All that said, as dire as Labour's position is, I do think people shouldn't gloss over that the Tories are still doing mediocre at best. They are still at their levels of the peak of Omnishambles in 2012, and barely above 1997 levels. Labour's collapse is because they've leaked support to the Greens, UKIP and the SNP, but very little has gone to the Tories. The Tories' win next May (quite possibly a small majority) is going to be the most lukewarm "victory" in British election history.
I prefer to choose based on merits not appearance.
Odds on Labour offering an EU ref have to be tumbling dont they?
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Thanks Rob D. Like OpenOffice, I am aware of google docs etc. Admittedly I needed much more remembering about google docs etc.RobD said:
Use google spreadsheets! It's free and does quite a lot of what Excel can do.JBriskin said:I'll never be a journo at this rate.
Someone mail me Excel please...
I won't be using it...
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The problem is that Brussels might play hardball and still demand the money and that plays to UKIP's hands.MarqueeMark said:Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?
The problem for the Tories is no longer the British responce, it's the EU's demands, with every demand UKIP gets a boost.0 -
They could support an in/out referendum on the EU.MarqueeMark said:What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?
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If the Lib Dems poll their current ratings then in terms of vote share per seat, it'll be their worst *ever* score. Pre-1979, they didn't contest every seat. In 1966, for example, they only stood in 311 seats, so their 8.5% share was an average of about 17% where they did stand. OK, they probably picked their best bets but it's difficult to imagine that they'd have been in single figures had they put up candidates across the whole country.manofkent2014 said:So we have the Tories at 2001 levels, Labour at 2010 levels and the Libdems down to 1960's levels. The end of the post war consensus?
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Until the next defection.....anotherDave said:
I think the South Yorkshire PCC election is the next result.Artist said:The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.
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But what Labour haven't grasped is, being "not the Tories" is not enough when people can choose to vote for the Greens or UKIP who are also not the Tories. They need to come up with policies that people want to positively vote for. And 5 more years of austerity certainly ain't it.kle4 said:
Tory incompetence/remember how much you hated ThatcherMarqueeMark said:Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?0 -
Will EdM be having another focus group with Beatrice and Gareth of Dartmouth Park to think of ways to stop Labour's wwc vote leaking away to UKIP ?
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LOL! Don't have a go at me, I'm just relaying the facts as they are.Speedy said:
Well if you don't like Ed Miliband because his face looks ugly and doesn't have the best voice you can complain to God for giving that to him.GIN1138 said:
Actually Labour's main problem isn't policy, it's that Ed Miliband has never been able to connect with voters and Labour in mid-term never did well enough (A maximum 16% lead in a couple of polls late 2012 was VERY mediocre given the circumstances)Danny565 said:Dan Hodges will be right, but for the wrong reasons. He continually insisted Labour needed to move closer to the "centre ground" and embrace Tory economic policies. Yet it's been over the past 12 months, when Labour have done precisely that with Ed Balls' constant wittering on about "tough spending decisions" and no hint of a suggestion of Labour actually doing anything to help poor people, that their lead has crumbled.
All that said, as dire as Labour's position is, I do think people shouldn't gloss over that the Tories are still doing mediocre at best. They are still at their levels of the peak of Omnishambles in 2012, and barely above 1997 levels. Labour's collapse is because they've leaked support to the Greens, UKIP and the SNP, but very little has gone to the Tories. The Tories' win next May (quite possibly a small majority) is going to be the most lukewarm "victory" in British election history.
I prefer to choose based on merits not appearance.
Voters never took to Ed and don't like him - Ironically it seem's he's probably least liked in Scotland as well, LOL.
Sooner or later Ed's personal ratings and Labour's poll rating were going to have to meet...
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PREDICTION for next year (it's quite similar to Innocent Abroad's iirc):
Conservatives 35%
Labour 27%
UKIP 16%
Lib Dems 8%
Greens 6%
Small Tory majority despite a slight fall on their 2010 voteshare.0 -
Hell, I think Clegg still wins out in the 'handsomest' leader stakes, and it isn't going to help his chances any.isam said:
I simply don't get the "ugly" comments.. he is quite a handsome bloke, just not a frontmanSpeedy said:
Well if you don't like Ed Miliband because his face looks ugly and doesn't have the best voice you can complain to God for giving that to him.GIN1138 said:
Actually Labour's main problem isn't policy, it's that Ed Miliband has never been able to connect with voters and Labour in mid-term never did well enough (A maximum 16% lead in a couple of polls late 2012 was VERY mediocre given the circumstances)Danny565 said:Dan Hodstory.
I prefer to choose based on merits not appearance.
I really cannot see why they haven't already except to distinguish themselves from the Tories out of habit. Polls are saying support for staying in is currently leading, apparently, so just promise one and trust they can ensure we do stay in. I guess they are worried any boost they would get from offering one - perhaps sooner than the Tories are offering, although with the 'don't rush' attitude over the EV4EL issue, that might be more difficult - would be offset by appearing more obviously in support of the EU and taking a hit before the election? Currently Labour, like but less severely than the Tories, seem to be doing all they can to suggest they dislike the EU without actually suggesting anything to sort things out.isam said:0 -
If this is true being a jihadist in "funni sunni" land, might not be all it was cracked up to be in the brochures.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/27/citizens-mosul-iraq-economic-collapse-repression-isis-islamic-state0 -
I'll quote Salmond, "what are Brussels going to do, invade?"Speedy said:
The problem is that Brussels might play hardball and still demand the money and that plays to UKIP's hands.
The problem for the Tories is no longer the British responce, it's the EU's demands, with every demand UKIP gets a boost.
The EU is a recent fabrication. It is a club, not a nation.
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By the way, the recall bill was voted down 340-1660
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Not sure I agree. What people want is for somebody to say "Enough!" to Brussels. By default, Farage has been able to wear that mantle, although he has no real desire to kill his milch cow. But it could yet be Cameron that gets the public onside.Speedy said:
The problem is that Brussels might play hardball and still demand the money and that plays to UKIP's hands.MarqueeMark said:Let's just say for now that the Tories come up with a popular way to stick it to Brussels (maybe Osborne announces an extra £1.7 billion for the NHS in his Autumn statement and tells Juncker "sorry mate, we spent it..."). And let's say that the Tories go a regular 2-3% ahead in the polls....
What can Labour change if not their Leader? They have no policies, so it's not as if they can ditch any unpopular ones. Where the Hell do they go in the run up to the election?
The problem for the Tories is no longer the British responce, it's the EU's demands, with every demand UKIP gets a boost.
Not saying it will, mind. Just that it could.
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Could this spell the end of spin doctors?
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1h1 hour ago
ComRes/Independent: 39% say they're attracted to UKIP 'because they say what they think' (up 6 points since April)
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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
LAB down 5 UKIP up 4 in new ComRes phone poll for Indy
CON 30+1, LAB 30-5, LD 9-1, UKIP 19+4, GRN 4=
ENP 4.4.
amusing that, in terms of votes, we're now looking like a country that already has Proportional Representation...0 -
Not an obvious win for them.isam said:
Odds on Labour offering an EU ref have to be tumbling dont they?
1) As with Cameron, the people who want a referendum won't believe they'll deliver it.
2) The next question is then "renegotiation", which gets them into an Undeliverable Promise Competition with the Tories that will end up strangling whichever leader is unlucky enough to win the election.0 -
Just seen a commercial for a 'touchless toilet'. You wave your hand over the top and it flushes. Even better you can buy a kit to make your existing toilet touchless.
Is this the most pointless technology since the petrol powered sweater, automatic flagpole or what?
http://www.us.kohler.com/us/Touchless-Toilets/content/TouchlessToilets.htm?brand=kpast&source=google&mat=exact&cat=Toilets+&+Bidets&kwd=kohler+touchless+toilet&iq=66346669-VQ16-c-VQ6-39864147549-VQ15-1t10 -
You forgot the money is to be given to France and Germany, those are nations.chestnut said:
I'll quote Salmond, "what are Brussels going to do, invade?"Speedy said:
The problem is that Brussels might play hardball and still demand the money and that plays to UKIP's hands.
The problem for the Tories is no longer the British responce, it's the EU's demands, with every demand UKIP gets a boost.
The EU is a recent fabrication. It is a club, not a nation.0 -
Tory majority remains very, very unlikely.Danny565 said:PREDICTION for next year (it's quite similar to Innocent Abroad's iirc):
Conservatives 35%
Labour 27%
UKIP 16%
Lib Dems 8%
Greens 6%
Small Tory majority despite a slight fall on their 2010 voteshare.
Con most votes/most seats and continuation of Con-Lib government (because nothing else is mathematically possible) is becoming my expectation again...
Or in other words I agree with Jack's Outpoarings and Rod's Monte Carlo Stimulus thingy...
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More likely go to a British court and ask it to compel the government to pay the money, as required by British law.chestnut said:
I'll quote Salmond, "what are Brussels going to do, invade?"Speedy said:
The problem is that Brussels might play hardball and still demand the money and that plays to UKIP's hands.
The problem for the Tories is no longer the British responce, it's the EU's demands, with every demand UKIP gets a boost.0 -
Fixed it for ya.another_richard said:
ItsFlightpath said:
So what left wing polices do UKIP follow to attract all these Labour voters? A list would be helpfulanother_richard said:
Beyond a certain point UKIP takes more votes from Labour than the Conservatives.isam said:Ah, the good old days...
April 2013
tim said:
"Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m
Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%
Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true."
We are certainly beyond that point now.wwcsexually repressed voters that UKIP are attracting not leftwing voters.
UKIP is a coalition of cultural conservatives. Those who want to live in the simple world of right & wrong of their childhood - you'll find them all over the place, in churches, mosques, rotary clubs, working mens clubs etc. Hell, if they weren't so anti-eu, they'd probably mop up the Polish vote, too.
Welcome to politics 2.0.0 -
All the more reason not to pay.Speedy said:You forgot the money is to be given to France and Germany, those are nations.
Is this the France that is trying to dodge it's fines because of budget indiscipline? Or the Germans who make a profit out of trading with Britain?
It's a club, not a nation.
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