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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 an

SystemSystem Posts: 11,707
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4

The Tory hope is that they’d make up some of their losses with gains from Lib Dems but yellow strong incumbency will make that harder than it seems.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    Damn these terrible polls for UKIP
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    isam said:

    Damn these terrible polls for UKIP

    Team Casio says minus five...

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is this the lowest combined Con/Lab share this parliament?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So in fact the Labour/Conservative parity is confirmed by another poll, and all the pollsters disagree about is just how high UKIP are relative to the two of them.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    19% for UKIP is impressive for a phone poll.
  • Options
    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    FPT
    Britain’s rebate at risk if £1.7bn EU bill is not paid, warns Brussels
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-pays-tribute-to-troops-but-faces-mps-quiz-over-eu-bill-9821204.html
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Labour going sub-Gordon.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    When was the last time a poll had less than or equal to 60% for the big two? Politics has changed and shows no sign of reversing.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Almost a quarter supporting either UKIP or Greens.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    UKIP is still going up despite no conference and no election coverage.
    Could be the EU bill though.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    The heady 35% strategy..... where have all those Red Lib Dems gone or was it the Brown core whose leaked off to UKIP?
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    The LAB 30% share in tonight's ComRes phone poll for the Indy is the same as Gordon Beown secured at GE10

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    I noticed that OGH has stopped posting the electoral calculus predictions...
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,906
    I don't like bandwagon jumping but its clear Ed is starting to weigh heavily on Labour's chances.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FPT
    Britain’s rebate at risk if £1.7bn EU bill is not paid, warns Brussels
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-pays-tribute-to-troops-but-faces-mps-quiz-over-eu-bill-9821204.html

    Blackmailers.
    They really want a food fight with Britain.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    The heady 35% strategy..... where have all those Red Lib Dems gone or was it the Brown core whose leaked off to UKIP?

    @catherine_mayer: Another day, another high for #UKIP: 19% in latest @Andrew_ComRes poll. Labour voters switching to kippers stand at 9%
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,994
    Lowest was Lord Ashcroft last week C 28, L 31, LD 7, UKIP 18, OTH 16. Sum of 59%
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hung parliament nailed on.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Almost a quarter supporting either UKIP or Greens.

    It's like 10 years ago, but replace LD with UKIP.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    "the 30% LAB share equals what the party was on at the last general election"

    EM = GB

    Can Lab drop lower? History says they will. Labour's vote in the 1st GE after losing power has always dropped.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Can it be that @dpjhodges is actually right?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes / Independent: 47% say UKIP 'are talking about the things I care about'....like the £1.7bn surcharge presumably
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    unreal.... spin of highest order.

    George Eaton @georgeeaton
    Most recent polls have had Labour and Tories in a dead heat. Not good for Lab, but worth remembering they'd still be largest party.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    At what point do we contemplate UKIP as a split on the left, not the right?
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    notme said:

    Can it be that @dpjhodges is actually right?

    Was there ever any doubt???
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Roger said:

    I don't like bandwagon jumping but its clear Ed is starting to weigh heavily on Labour's chances.

    Still hope roger ;-)



    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Level pegging isn't good enough for CON. The need lead of 6%+ before they start winning seats from LAB & stop losing them

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    Ah, the good old days...


    April 2013
    tim said:

    "Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m
    Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%

    Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true."
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A slight change in the numbers would have resulted in Con, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s. How long before that happens?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,994
    chestnut said:

    At what point do we contemplate UKIP as a split on the left, not the right?

    CON have been flatlining in recent weeks, LAB are down as UKIP are up:

    Plotted here for your pleasure - http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    The heady 35% strategy..... where have all those Red Lib Dems gone or was it the Brown core whose leaked off to UKIP?

    @catherine_mayer: Another day, another high for #UKIP: 19% in latest @Andrew_ComRes poll. Labour voters switching to kippers stand at 9%
    That 9% is no different with other pollsters.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
    If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?

    It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.

    And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,468
    edited October 2014
    For those wot missed it earlier today:

    Figures for The Sunil's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for the week-ending 26th October - 9 polls with a total weighted sample of 12,308:

    Lab 33.4% (-0.3)
    Con 32.3% (+1.1)
    UKIP 15.9% (-1.2)
    LD 7.3% (-0.6)

    Lab lead 1.1% (-1.4%)

    Changes from our very first ELBOW for week-ending 17th August (10 polls, sample 12,463):

    Lab -2.8%
    Con -0.9%
    UKIP +2.8%
    LD -0.6%

    Lab lead -1.9% (ie. was 3.0, now 1.1)

    Take-home:
    * UKIP take a hit, dropping 1.2%
    * Tories main beneficiaries, gaining 1.1%
    * Lab drop very slightly by 0.3%
    * Consequent slashing of Lab lead by 1.4% to only 1.1%
    * LibDems drop 0.6% to 7.3%, joint-lowest ELBOW score (same as Sept 28th)
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    chestnut said:

    At what point do we contemplate UKIP as a split on the left, not the right?

    When Rosberg wins the championship??

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    tlg86 said:

    I noticed that OGH has stopped posting the electoral calculus predictions...

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=30&TVCON=&LAB=30&TVLAB=&LIB=9&TVLIB=&UKIP=19&region=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y

    Lab 9 short of majority (*)

    * Ignore the UKIP seat numbers which are obviously wrong, but don't make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Tykejohnno said:

    Roger said:

    I don't like bandwagon jumping but its clear Ed is starting to weigh heavily on Labour's chances.

    Still hope roger ;-)



    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Level pegging isn't good enough for CON. The need lead of 6%+ before they start winning seats from LAB & stop losing them

    With all the swing voters moving to UKIP and the Greens, who knows how Lab/Con votes are spread?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    A slight change in the numbers would have resulted in Con, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s. How long before that happens?

    I think the Rochester By-election will produce it.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Well well Labour seems to be on a shocker

    Adjusted GE book:

    +12.74 +85.55 +0.51
    Lab NOM Tory
    For the overalls.
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    SeanT said:

    JBriskin said:

    notme said:

    Can it be that @dpjhodges is actually right?

    Was there ever any doubt???
    Dan Hodges will be able to dine off the generous pb apologies for about 40 years should it turn out he was RIGHT.

    Never has one newspaper columnist been so vilified by such a bunch of wankers.....

    We shall see.
    Vilified?

    Once more I'm admiss to converse to a proper journo-

    But PB is Hodges - Hodges is PB

    I see no villivication here.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

    "Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    isam said:

    Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

    "Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    Or celelbrate your 19? Just an idea.

    Kind regards,

    Team Casio
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    another_richard said:

    If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?

    It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.

    And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.

    There's no mechanism for getting rid of him unless he resigns which is unlikely.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    edited October 2014
    edmundintokyo said:

    tlg86 said:

    I noticed that OGH has stopped posting the electoral calculus predictions...

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=30&TVCON=&LAB=30&TVLAB=&LIB=9&TVLIB=&UKIP=19&region=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y

    Lab 9 short of majority (*)

    * Ignore the UKIP seat numbers which are obviously wrong, but don't make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
    It would be quite funny if that is what actually happens next May. A few years of a LibLab coalition with Ed as PM with those figures would make for interesting viewing.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
    isam said:

    Ah, the good old days...


    April 2013
    tim said:

    "Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m
    Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%

    Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true."

    Beyond a certain point UKIP takes more votes from Labour than the Conservatives.

    We are certainly beyond that point now.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Exclusive: Huge surge in support for Ukip after £1.7bn EU funding row, according to new poll

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-huge-surge-in-support-for-ukip-after-17bn-eu-funding-row-according-to-new-poll-9821889.html
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Yougov could well be a Tory lead tonight judging by all the other polls.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    JBriskin said:

    notme said:

    Can it be that @dpjhodges is actually right?

    Was there ever any doubt???
    Dan Hodges will be able to dine off the generous pb apologies for about 40 years should it turn out he was RIGHT.

    Never has one newspaper columnist been so vilified by such a bunch of wankers.....

    We shall see.
    Right about what?
    UKIP?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,468
    edited October 2014 
    ELBOW       Lab lead
    17th Aug   3.01
    24th Aug   3.64
    31st Aug   3.83
    7th Sep    3.32
    14th Sep   4.64
    21st Sep   3.55
    28th Sep   4.35
    5th Oct    2.89
    12th Oct   2.56
    19th Oct   2.44
    26th Oct   1.08
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,994
    chestnut said:

    Yougov could well be a Tory lead tonight judging by all the other polls.

    It was announced in the last few comments of the last thread, was another tie.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    I don't think there's ever been an election with no party over 30%. Last time only one party got over 30% was 1983
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2014
    isam said:

    Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

    "Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    I'm not a Labour loyalist, but, LOL, and more LOLs.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

    Tuesday's Daily Mail front page
    Blunkett: Migrants really are swamping parts of UK
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/R4XIKth6m3

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    chestnut said:

    Yougov could well be a Tory lead tonight judging by all the other polls.

    Not a chance, I know this because the Tory lead was a conference fluke, also because yougov is already out and it doesn't have a Tory lead.
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    chestnut said:

    At what point do we contemplate UKIP as a split on the left, not the right?

    Or if they take relatively similar numbers from both sides do we say they have split the establishment down the middle?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tykejohnno said:


    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

    Tuesday's Daily Mail front page
    Blunkett: Migrants really are swamping parts of UK
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/R4XIKth6m3

    DAVID Blunkett?
    The former Home Secretary under Blair moaning about immigration?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
    AndyJS said:

    another_richard said:

    If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?

    It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.

    And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.

    There's no mechanism for getting rid of him unless he resigns which is unlikely.
    But if things continue to worsen for Labour over the winter EdM will get the visit from the men in grey suits followed, if necessary, by the visit from the men in white coats.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    OblitusSumMe said:

    isam said:

    Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

    "Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    I'm not a Labour loyalist, but, LOL.
    Haha I really did laugh out loud

    Zero seats!!!

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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    Disappointing polls for Labour - no hiding that. Is this a beginning of a trend or just a blip. As ever, time will tell...
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    TapestryTapestry Posts: 153
    The Lib Dems have a chance to redeem their support levels if they follow Tim Farron's advice.
    UKIP have made a serious tactical error, which LDs could exploit. http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/there-has-never-been-any-case-of.html
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    isam said:

    Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

    "Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    If the Tories and Labour are on 25% then UKIP would be in the lead.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tonight's YouGov pretty much confirms the ComRes picture:

    Con 32%
    Lab 32%
    UKIP 18%
    LD 8%
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    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    corporeal said:

    I don't think there's ever been an election with no party over 30%. Last time only one party got over 30% was 1983

    2010?
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ELBOW       Lab lead
    17th Aug   3.01
    24th Aug   3.64
    31st Aug   3.83
    7th Sep    3.32
    14th Sep   4.64
    21st Sep   3.55
    28th Sep   4.35
    5th Oct    2.89
    12th Oct   2.56
    19th Oct   2.44
    26th Oct   1.08
    I see Avery has taught you well!

    (Does he post here anymore?)
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    isam said:

    Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

    "Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=25&TVCON=&LAB=25&TVLAB=&LIB=12&TVLIB=&UKIP=30&region=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y

    LAB 25.00% 259
    CON 25.00% 210
    UKIP 30.00% 113
    LIB 12.00% 39

    UKIP+Con are still short, so pretty much the only viable coalition is Lab+Con grand coalition, presumably led by Ed Miliband.

    Note the lack of zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    Apparently this is the first time ever the leading party/parties in a British poll has been on just 30%.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I really should read the thread header properly.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Apparently this is the first time ever the leading party/parties in a British poll has been on just 30%.

    Nope, in the summer of 2004 there was a Populus poll with LAB 30, LD 28, CON 28.

    That is why I mentioned that things have returned to normal.
    This was a typical situation in the previous decade.
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    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    An interesting thought has occurred to me, if, the UK becomes a land of milk and honey, totally independent of the hated EU, EC and other related acronyms, will the UK become a land where no one from anywhere else not want to come to?

    This brings to mind the question as to who will do the work that the Uker's do not want to do, like wipe the backsides of the elderly incontinent or pick the fruit and veg from our green and verdant fields?

    Then again, will the border patrol/HMRC (aka Customs and Excise)/military/police/Captain Mainwaring /Uncle Tom Cobbley and all be able to restrict illegal attempts to enter the UK? They certainly do not have a good historical record. Even during nearly all wars that the UK has been involved in for over 1000 years, with all the force that the governments have been able to provide, smuggling has always been a financially successful business. Booze, drugs, tobacco, sugar, and people.

    Why do these people want to come the UK? I heard rather eloquently put by a young African on R4, they are pursuing a dream. A dream of law, of being paid for work, of living without fear of the police and a chance to live free.

    Where would you, Dear Reader, want to live and what would you do, to live a dream?
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    murali_s said:

    Disappointing polls for Labour - no hiding that. Is this a beginning of a trend or just a blip. As ever, time will tell...

    Beginning of a trend? The question is whether the established trend is continuing - as the Labour lead has already been declining over recent weeks.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Speedy said:

    SeanT said:

    JBriskin said:

    notme said:

    Can it be that @dpjhodges is actually right?

    Was there ever any doubt???
    Dan Hodges will be able to dine off the generous pb apologies for about 40 years should it turn out he was RIGHT.

    Never has one newspaper columnist been so vilified by such a bunch of wankers.....

    We shall see.
    Right about what?
    UKIP?
    That Labour cannot and will not win the General Election. That chasing short term measures, sucking up to their core and lacking an economic strategy will mean when the floating British public look at their ballot paper, they may hover over Labour, they might have even intended to vote labour on the walk to polling station, but when they get there, theyll change their minds and vote conservative.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    edited October 2014
    The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.
  • Options
    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Speedy said:

    chestnut said:

    Yougov could well be a Tory lead tonight judging by all the other polls.

    Not a chance, I know this because the Tory lead was a conference fluke, also because yougov is already out and it doesn't have a Tory lead.
    Perhaps you should have had a bet with Speedy over the Yougov poll.

    Scott_P would have.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Edin_Rokz said:

    An interesting thought has occurred to me, if, the UK becomes a land of milk and honey, totally independent of the hated EU, EC and other related acronyms, will the UK become a land where no one from anywhere else not want to come to?

    This brings to mind the question as to who will do the work that the Uker's do not want to do, like wipe the backsides of the elderly incontinent or pick the fruit and veg from our green and verdant fields?

    Then again, will the border patrol/HMRC (aka Customs and Excise)/military/police/Captain Mainwaring /Uncle Tom Cobbley and all be able to restrict illegal attempts to enter the UK? They certainly do not have a good historical record. Even during nearly all wars that the UK has been involved in for over 1000 years, with all the force that the governments have been able to provide, smuggling has always been a financially successful business. Booze, drugs, tobacco, sugar, and people.

    Why do these people want to come the UK? I heard rather eloquently put by a young African on R4, they are pursuing a dream. A dream of law, of being paid for work, of living without fear of the police and a chance to live free.

    Where would you, Dear Reader, want to live and what would you do, to live a dream?

    Sehr Guht.

    We've totally done this though. It goes something like-

    Demos-Demos-Not,Japan-Not,Japan

    Is that good enough for you?

    Honestly, somebody, somewhere, GisaJob
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,468
    edited October 2014
    edmundintokyo said:

    isam said:

    Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

    "Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=25&TVCON=&LAB=25&TVLAB=&LIB=12&TVLIB=&UKIP=30&region=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y

    LAB 25.00% 259
    CON 25.00% 210
    UKIP 30.00% 113
    LIB 12.00% 39

    UKIP+Con are still short, so pretty much the only viable coalition is Lab+Con grand coalition, presumably led by Ed Miliband.

    Note the lack of zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
    UKIP+Con = 323 would just about do it, assuming there are 5 Shinners in NI.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    AndyJS said:

    A slight change in the numbers would have resulted in Con, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s. How long before that happens?

    Last time only 1 party over 30% at a GE was 1983. Last time 0 parties never. Last time Cons under 30% 1832.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Anyone seen JohnOwls? Maybe we can just stick at EIC now.

    To be fair, on Baxter, Labour would still have a nominal majority on these numbers with 323 MPs, assuming 5 Sinn Feiners and an ex-Tory speaker. Bit tight though.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Artist said:

    The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

    In what sense is 12/13% a "normal" level for UKIP?
  • Options
    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Artist said:

    The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

    Any chance of more defectors?

    I wouldn't rule it out.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,468
    MyBurningEars said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ELBOW       Lab lead
    17th Aug   3.01
    24th Aug   3.64
    31st Aug   3.83
    7th Sep    3.32
    14th Sep   4.64
    21st Sep   3.55
    28th Sep   4.35
    5th Oct    2.89
    12th Oct   2.56
    19th Oct   2.44
    26th Oct   1.08
    I see Avery has taught you well!

    (Does he post here anymore?)
    Haven't seen him in ages. Hope he's well.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Artist said:

    The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

    Well, if the Tories wanted it to be over quickly, they seriously flunked the chance by putting the writ back and not having the poll until 20th November!!!
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,940
    After the Ryan Coeetze 'leak' from last week we now have the Lib Dem's pre-election manifesto - it's actual called a 'forward offer'. There are 5 main points - balance the budget by 2018, cut income tax by £400 for low and middle earners, guarantee equal care for mental and physical health, ensure all teachers are qualified and protect education spending, pass a new Nature Law to protect the environment and fight climate change.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    another_richard said:

    AndyJS said:

    another_richard said:

    If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?

    It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.

    And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.

    There's no mechanism for getting rid of him unless he resigns which is unlikely.
    But if things continue to worsen for Labour over the winter EdM will get the visit from the men in grey suits followed, if necessary, by the visit from the men in white coats.
    That is the reality of how things work. No matter what procedures etc exist. When senior members of the party, shadow cabinet members, former big hitters come to him and tell him that he needs to stand aside for the good of the party, he will go.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,008
    corporeal said:

    AndyJS said:

    A slight change in the numbers would have resulted in Con, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s. How long before that happens?

    Last time only 1 party over 30% at a GE was 1983. Last time 0 parties never. Last time Cons under 30% 1832.
    2010!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MyBurningEars said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ELBOW       Lab lead
    17th Aug   3.01
    24th Aug   3.64
    31st Aug   3.83
    7th Sep    3.32
    14th Sep   4.64
    21st Sep   3.55
    28th Sep   4.35
    5th Oct    2.89
    12th Oct   2.56
    19th Oct   2.44
    26th Oct   1.08
    I see Avery has taught you well!

    (Does he post here anymore?)
    @FalseFlag appeared pretty much when @Avery left

    But since both take their dictation from Putin it's hard to tell the difference
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    slade said:

    After the Ryan Coeetze 'leak' from last week we now have the Lib Dem's pre-election manifesto - it's actual called a 'forward offer'. There are 5 main points - balance the budget by 2018, cut income tax by £400 for low and middle earners, guarantee equal care for mental and physical health, ensure all teachers are qualified and protect education spending, pass a new Nature Law to protect the environment and fight climate change.

    Have the parties just decided that journalists pay attention if they "leak" it than if they have a press conference and yell it through a megaphone at them?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Artist said:

    The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

    I think the South Yorkshire PCC election is the next result.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Speedy said:

    Tykejohnno said:


    Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

    Tuesday's Daily Mail front page
    Blunkett: Migrants really are swamping parts of UK
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/R4XIKth6m3

    DAVID Blunkett?
    The former Home Secretary under Blair moaning about immigration?
    I think someone asked today for the defence secretary to name the places that are been 'swamped'

    The truth will come out,today we have blunkett starting to open up about it and today in the commons,bradford MP David ward going on about EU Immigration in his constituency taking up school places.

  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited October 2014
    edmundintokyo said:

    isam said:

    Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

    "Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=25&TVCON=&LAB=25&TVLAB=&LIB=12&TVLIB=&UKIP=30&region=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y

    LAB 25.00% 259
    CON 25.00% 210
    UKIP 30.00% 113
    LIB 12.00% 39

    UKIP+Con are still short, so pretty much the only viable coalition is Lab+Con grand coalition, presumably led by Ed Miliband.

    Note the lack of zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
    Actually they are not short when you take off the Speaker and Sinn Fein and given the fact that the SNP and Plaid (and some Northern Irish MPs?) will not vote on English matters it would make some sort of Con / UKIP alliance about the only viable proposition.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    OblitusSumMe said:

    murali_s said:

    Disappointing polls for Labour - no hiding that. Is this a beginning of a trend or just a blip. As ever, time will tell...

    Beginning of a trend? The question is whether the established trend is continuing - as the Labour lead has already been declining over recent weeks.
    The combined Lab+Con vote has been declining for decades.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Artist said:

    The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

    The problem is that UKIP is rising again but this time without elections or by elections, so this is a more natural movement.
    From 2013 till 2 weeks ago UKIP rise was aided with election and byelection coverages, this time it is a raw movement up.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ELBOW       Lab lead
    17th Aug   3.01
    24th Aug   3.64
    31st Aug   3.83
    7th Sep    3.32
    14th Sep   4.64
    21st Sep   3.55
    28th Sep   4.35
    5th Oct    2.89
    12th Oct   2.56
    19th Oct   2.44
    26th Oct   1.08
    I see Avery has taught you well!

    (Does he post here anymore?)
    @FalseFlag appeared pretty much when @Avery left

    But since both take their dictation from Putin it's hard to tell the difference
    Certainly ALP was Russophile, but I am not sure he was ever a Putinophile.

    Also missing Jacks ARSE. After all he always concluded: Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister!
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    corporeal said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    murali_s said:

    Disappointing polls for Labour - no hiding that. Is this a beginning of a trend or just a blip. As ever, time will tell...

    Beginning of a trend? The question is whether the established trend is continuing - as the Labour lead has already been declining over recent weeks.
    The combined Lab+Con vote has been declining for decades.
    As long as they vote eh?

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Artist said:

    The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

    Pity then that the Tories decided to hold it about 3 weeks later than necessary.
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Charles said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ELBOW       Lab lead
    17th Aug   3.01
    24th Aug   3.64
    31st Aug   3.83
    7th Sep    3.32
    14th Sep   4.64
    21st Sep   3.55
    28th Sep   4.35
    5th Oct    2.89
    12th Oct   2.56
    19th Oct   2.44
    26th Oct   1.08
    I see Avery has taught you well!

    (Does he post here anymore?)
    @FalseFlag appeared pretty much when @Avery left

    But since both take their dictation from Putin it's hard to tell the difference
    Certainly ALP was Russophile, but I am not sure he was ever a Putinophile.

    Also missing Jacks ARSE. After all he always concluded: Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister!
    Charles is full of anti politico bullshit.

    We've all been warned.

    I'm giving everyone another one.

    (Although he did teach me one new word...)
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2014
    Speedy said:

    Artist said:

    The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

    The problem is that UKIP is rising again but this time without elections or by elections, so this is a more natural movement.
    From 2013 till 2 weeks ago UKIP rise was aided with election and byelection coverages, this time it is a raw movement up.
    If UKIP can take another chunk out of the Conservatives' numbers before the European Arrest Warrant vote, it could do some good.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/lets-have-british-justice--not-the-eus-9819682.html
  • Options
    Robert_EveRobert_Eve Posts: 31
    Great to see UKIP still on the up.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    corporeal said:

    slade said:

    After the Ryan Coeetze 'leak' from last week we now have the Lib Dem's pre-election manifesto - it's actual called a 'forward offer'. There are 5 main points - balance the budget by 2018, cut income tax by £400 for low and middle earners, guarantee equal care for mental and physical health, ensure all teachers are qualified and protect education spending, pass a new Nature Law to protect the environment and fight climate change.

    Have the parties just decided that journalists pay attention if they "leak" it than if they have a press conference and yell it through a megaphone at them?
    If they "leak" it then the journalist they "leak" to gets to feel special. They get to announce the same stuff twice, once unofficially and another time officially. They get to test public reaction and drop stuff that isn't popular and can at least pretend to plausibly deny that they ever intended to have that policy at all.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Charles said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ELBOW       Lab lead
    17th Aug   3.01
    24th Aug   3.64
    31st Aug   3.83
    7th Sep    3.32
    14th Sep   4.64
    21st Sep   3.55
    28th Sep   4.35
    5th Oct    2.89
    12th Oct   2.56
    19th Oct   2.44
    26th Oct   1.08
    I see Avery has taught you well!

    (Does he post here anymore?)
    @FalseFlag appeared pretty much when @Avery left

    But since both take their dictation from Putin it's hard to tell the difference
    Certainly ALP was Russophile, but I am not sure he was ever a Putinophile.

    Also missing Jacks ARSE. After all he always concluded: Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister!
    I would be wary if that line remains the official Tory line, since memories of 1993 linger (and its the 11th anniversary), look what happened when the canadian Tories tried that approach:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PikszBkfTHM
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,924
    Things are falling apart for Labour.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Poor old EdM. It's hard to see a way back for him. At least he'll be gone this time next year. Whoever takes over has a hell of a job on his or her hands. Labour is slowly dying of complacency and condescension. There really is more to politics than theNHS and Not Being The Tories.
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    notme said:

    another_richard said:

    AndyJS said:

    another_richard said:

    If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?

    It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.

    And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.

    There's no mechanism for getting rid of him unless he resigns which is unlikely.
    But if things continue to worsen for Labour over the winter EdM will get the visit from the men in grey suits followed, if necessary, by the visit from the men in white coats.
    That is the reality of how things work. No matter what procedures etc exist. When senior members of the party, shadow cabinet members, former big hitters come to him and tell him that he needs to stand aside for the good of the party, he will go.
    For that to happen the party would have to agree on an uncontested election with a consensus candidate. This I would suggest have to be a relatively mature candidate who could be relied upon to resign after the election after shoring up the Labour vote. It would be an admission of defeat, of being reduced to shoring up your core vote and to protect what they have not win back more.
    Since the only such candidate that comes to mind is Gordon Brown, I do not see it working.

This discussion has been closed.