politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 an

isam said:

Damn these terrible polls for UKIP

Scrapheap_as_was said:

The heady 35% strategy..... where have all those Red Lib Dems gone or was it the Brown core whose leaked off to UKIP?

Roger said:

I don't like bandwagon jumping but its clear Ed is starting to weigh heavily on Labour's chances.

Scott_P said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

The heady 35% strategy..... where have all those Red Lib Dems gone or was it the Brown core whose leaked off to UKIP?

@catherine_mayer: Another day, another high for #UKIP: 19% in latest @Andrew_ComRes poll. Labour voters switching to kippers stand at 9%

tlg86 said:

I noticed that OGH has stopped posting the electoral calculus predictions...

AndyJS said:

A slight change in the numbers would have resulted in Con, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s. How long before that happens?

SeanT said:

JBriskin said:

notme said:

Can it be that @dpjhodges is actually right?

Was there ever any doubt???

Dan Hodges will be able to dine off the generous pb apologies for about 40 years should it turn out he was RIGHT.

Never has one newspaper columnist been so vilified by such a bunch of wankers.....

We shall see.

isam said:

Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

"Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

edmundintokyo said:

tlg86 said:

I noticed that OGH has stopped posting the electoral calculus predictions...

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=30&TVCON=&LAB=30&TVLAB=&LIB=9&TVLIB=&UKIP=19&region=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y

Lab 9 short of majority (*)

* Ignore the UKIP seat numbers which are obviously wrong, but don't make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

SeanT said:

JBriskin said:

notme said:

Can it be that @dpjhodges is actually right?

Was there ever any doubt???

Dan Hodges will be able to dine off the generous pb apologies for about 40 years should it turn out he was RIGHT.

Never has one newspaper columnist been so vilified by such a bunch of wankers.....

We shall see.

chestnut said:

Yougov could well be a Tory lead tonight judging by all the other polls.

isam said:

Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

"Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

chestnut said:

Yougov could well be a Tory lead tonight judging by all the other polls.

Tykejohnno said:

Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Tuesday's Daily Mail front page
Blunkett: Migrants really are swamping parts of UK
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/R4XIKth6m3

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

Soon we will have Labour loyalists on here saying

"Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I'm not a Labour loyalist, but, LOL.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ELBOW       Lab lead
17th Aug   3.01
24th Aug   3.64
31st Aug   3.83
7th Sep    3.32
14th Sep   4.64
21st Sep   3.55
28th Sep   4.35
5th Oct    2.89
12th Oct   2.56
19th Oct   2.44
26th Oct   1.08

AndyJS said:

Apparently this is the first time ever the leading party/parties in a British poll has been on just 30%.

murali_s said:

Disappointing polls for Labour - no hiding that. Is this a beginning of a trend or just a blip. As ever, time will tell...

Edin_Rokz said:

An interesting thought has occurred to me, if, the UK becomes a land of milk and honey, totally independent of the hated EU, EC and other related acronyms, will the UK become a land where no one from anywhere else not want to come to?

This brings to mind the question as to who will do the work that the Uker's do not want to do, like wipe the backsides of the elderly incontinent or pick the fruit and veg from our green and verdant fields?

Then again, will the border patrol/HMRC (aka Customs and Excise)/military/police/Captain Mainwaring /Uncle Tom Cobbley and all be able to restrict illegal attempts to enter the UK? They certainly do not have a good historical record. Even during nearly all wars that the UK has been involved in for over 1000 years, with all the force that the governments have been able to provide, smuggling has always been a financially successful business. Booze, drugs, tobacco, sugar, and people.

Why do these people want to come the UK? I heard rather eloquently put by a young African on R4, they are pursuing a dream. A dream of law, of being paid for work, of living without fear of the police and a chance to live free.

Where would you, Dear Reader, want to live and what would you do, to live a dream?

AndyJS said:

A slight change in the numbers would have resulted in Con, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s. How long before that happens?

Artist said:

The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

MyBurningEars said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ELBOW       Lab lead
17th Aug   3.01
24th Aug   3.64
31st Aug   3.83
7th Sep    3.32
14th Sep   4.64
21st Sep   3.55
28th Sep   4.35
5th Oct    2.89
12th Oct   2.56
19th Oct   2.44
26th Oct   1.08

I see Avery has taught you well!

(Does he post here anymore?)

corporeal said:

AndyJS said:

A slight change in the numbers would have resulted in Con, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s. How long before that happens?

Last time only 1 party over 30% at a GE was 1983. Last time 0 parties never. Last time Cons under 30% 1832.

slade said:

After the Ryan Coeetze 'leak' from last week we now have the Lib Dem's pre-election manifesto - it's actual called a 'forward offer'. There are 5 main points - balance the budget by 2018, cut income tax by £400 for low and middle earners, guarantee equal care for mental and physical health, ensure all teachers are qualified and protect education spending, pass a new Nature Law to protect the environment and fight climate change.

Speedy said:

Tykejohnno said:

Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick

Tuesday's Daily Mail front page
Blunkett: Migrants really are swamping parts of UK
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/R4XIKth6m3

DAVID Blunkett?
The former Home Secretary under Blair moaning about immigration?

OblitusSumMe said:

murali_s said:

Disappointing polls for Labour - no hiding that. Is this a beginning of a trend or just a blip. As ever, time will tell...

Beginning of a trend? The question is whether the established trend is continuing - as the Labour lead has already been declining over recent weeks.

Charles said:

MyBurningEars said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ELBOW       Lab lead
17th Aug   3.01
24th Aug   3.64
31st Aug   3.83
7th Sep    3.32
14th Sep   4.64
21st Sep   3.55
28th Sep   4.35
5th Oct    2.89
12th Oct   2.56
19th Oct   2.44
26th Oct   1.08

I see Avery has taught you well!

(Does he post here anymore?)

@FalseFlag appeared pretty much when @Avery left

But since both take their dictation from Putin it's hard to tell the difference

Artist said:

The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

Speedy said:

Artist said:

The question is what will the polls look like if/when UKIP return to their normal 12/13% level. I bet Labour and the Conservatives would prefer the Rochester By Election to be over with and UKIP out of the news for a bit.

The problem is that UKIP is rising again but this time without elections or by elections, so this is a more natural movement.
From 2013 till 2 weeks ago UKIP rise was aided with election and byelection coverages, this time it is a raw movement up.

corporeal said:

slade said:

After the Ryan Coeetze 'leak' from last week we now have the Lib Dem's pre-election manifesto - it's actual called a 'forward offer'. There are 5 main points - balance the budget by 2018, cut income tax by £400 for low and middle earners, guarantee equal care for mental and physical health, ensure all teachers are qualified and protect education spending, pass a new Nature Law to protect the environment and fight climate change.

Have the parties just decided that journalists pay attention if they "leak" it than if they have a press conference and yell it through a megaphone at them?

notme said:

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

another_richard said:

If South Yorkshire votes UKIP on Thursday is it the end of EdM ?

It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.

And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.

There's no mechanism for getting rid of him unless he resigns which is unlikely.

But if things continue to worsen for Labour over the winter EdM will get the visit from the men in grey suits followed, if necessary, by the visit from the men in white coats.

That is the reality of how things work. No matter what procedures etc exist. When senior members of the party, shadow cabinet members, former big hitters come to him and tell him that he needs to stand aside for the good of the party, he will go.