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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 an
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 and UKIP up 4
The Tory hope is that they’d make up some of their losses with gains from Lib Dems but yellow strong incumbency will make that harder than it seems.
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Britain’s rebate at risk if £1.7bn EU bill is not paid, warns Brussels
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-pays-tribute-to-troops-but-faces-mps-quiz-over-eu-bill-9821204.html
Could be the EU bill though.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
The LAB 30% share in tonight's ComRes phone poll for the Indy is the same as Gordon Beown secured at GE10
They really want a food fight with Britain.
EM = GB
Can Lab drop lower? History says they will. Labour's vote in the 1st GE after losing power has always dropped.
George Eaton @georgeeaton
Most recent polls have had Labour and Tories in a dead heat. Not good for Lab, but worth remembering they'd still be largest party.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Level pegging isn't good enough for CON. The need lead of 6%+ before they start winning seats from LAB & stop losing them
April 2013
tim said:
"Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m
Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%
Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true."
Plotted here for your pleasure - http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
It would be personal humiliation for him as UKIP would certainly have won in Doncaster North if they win throughout South Yorkshire.
And it would give a huge boost to UKIP among Labour's northern wwc votebase.
Figures for The Sunil's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for the week-ending 26th October - 9 polls with a total weighted sample of 12,308:
Lab 33.4% (-0.3)
Con 32.3% (+1.1)
UKIP 15.9% (-1.2)
LD 7.3% (-0.6)
Lab lead 1.1% (-1.4%)
Changes from our very first ELBOW for week-ending 17th August (10 polls, sample 12,463):
Lab -2.8%
Con -0.9%
UKIP +2.8%
LD -0.6%
Lab lead -1.9% (ie. was 3.0, now 1.1)
Take-home:
* UKIP take a hit, dropping 1.2%
* Tories main beneficiaries, gaining 1.1%
* Lab drop very slightly by 0.3%
* Consequent slashing of Lab lead by 1.4% to only 1.1%
* LibDems drop 0.6% to 7.3%, joint-lowest ELBOW score (same as Sept 28th)
Lab 9 short of majority (*)
* Ignore the UKIP seat numbers which are obviously wrong, but don't make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
Adjusted GE book:
+12.74 +85.55 +0.51
Lab NOM Tory
For the overalls.
Once more I'm admiss to converse to a proper journo-
But PB is Hodges - Hodges is PB
I see no villivication here.
"Look it doesn't matter if we only get 25% of the vote because the way the electoral system works... "
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Kind regards,
Team Casio
We are certainly beyond that point now.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-huge-surge-in-support-for-ukip-after-17bn-eu-funding-row-according-to-new-poll-9821889.html
UKIP?
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Tuesday's Daily Mail front page
Blunkett: Migrants really are swamping parts of UK
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/R4XIKth6m3
The former Home Secretary under Blair moaning about immigration?
Zero seats!!!
UKIP have made a serious tactical error, which LDs could exploit. http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/there-has-never-been-any-case-of.html
Con 32%
Lab 32%
UKIP 18%
LD 8%
(Does he post here anymore?)
LAB 25.00% 259
CON 25.00% 210
UKIP 30.00% 113
LIB 12.00% 39
UKIP+Con are still short, so pretty much the only viable coalition is Lab+Con grand coalition, presumably led by Ed Miliband.
Note the lack of zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
That is why I mentioned that things have returned to normal.
This was a typical situation in the previous decade.
This brings to mind the question as to who will do the work that the Uker's do not want to do, like wipe the backsides of the elderly incontinent or pick the fruit and veg from our green and verdant fields?
Then again, will the border patrol/HMRC (aka Customs and Excise)/military/police/Captain Mainwaring /Uncle Tom Cobbley and all be able to restrict illegal attempts to enter the UK? They certainly do not have a good historical record. Even during nearly all wars that the UK has been involved in for over 1000 years, with all the force that the governments have been able to provide, smuggling has always been a financially successful business. Booze, drugs, tobacco, sugar, and people.
Why do these people want to come the UK? I heard rather eloquently put by a young African on R4, they are pursuing a dream. A dream of law, of being paid for work, of living without fear of the police and a chance to live free.
Where would you, Dear Reader, want to live and what would you do, to live a dream?
Scott_P would have.
We've totally done this though. It goes something like-
Demos-Demos-Not,Japan-Not,Japan
Is that good enough for you?
Honestly, somebody, somewhere, GisaJob
To be fair, on Baxter, Labour would still have a nominal majority on these numbers with 323 MPs, assuming 5 Sinn Feiners and an ex-Tory speaker. Bit tight though.
I wouldn't rule it out.
But since both take their dictation from Putin it's hard to tell the difference
The truth will come out,today we have blunkett starting to open up about it and today in the commons,bradford MP David ward going on about EU Immigration in his constituency taking up school places.
From 2013 till 2 weeks ago UKIP rise was aided with election and byelection coverages, this time it is a raw movement up.
Also missing Jacks ARSE. After all he always concluded: Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister!
We've all been warned.
I'm giving everyone another one.
(Although he did teach me one new word...)
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/lets-have-british-justice--not-the-eus-9819682.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PikszBkfTHM
Since the only such candidate that comes to mind is Gordon Brown, I do not see it working.