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The LDs now a 99% betting chance in Somerton & Frome – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023

    I feel like England are facing the English weather in this series, not Australia.

    Yaaaawwwwwnnnn :lol:
    A song you might like Sunil - "I Don't Like Cricket" by 10CC, a number one from 1978. 😊

    (I confess I've changed the title slightly).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUNTk5xsxk4
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    It's reported on the Vote UK boards that David Herdson, now of the Yorkshire Party and present at the Selby and Ainsty count, is calling it for Labour.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,448
    edited July 2023
    The culture war has been won.

    The battle lines were drawn by the Tories.

    Do not let them forget it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820

    It's reported on the Vote UK boards that David Herdson, now of the Yorkshire Party and present at the Selby and Ainsty count, is calling it for Labour.

    Linky plz?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a good selection of seats. Trad LD Con battleground seat, outer London and semi rural north Yorkshire.

    Just a pity we don't have 6 with Rutherglen, Mid Beds, Tamworth.
    And we never got Leicester West either, which looked a prospect for awhile. Personally I think any conviction should be satisfactory for a recall petition.
    When the Tamworth by-election eventually comes around, might it be followed by one in Walsall North?
    Good point. The Tories have a real problem there.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Andy_JS said:

    Lib Dems claim victory in Somerton & Frome.

    Sky News.

    Shock horror. LDs claim by-election victory in a seat they held for 18 consecutive years until 2015.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447

    It's reported on the Vote UK boards that David Herdson, now of the Yorkshire Party and present at the Selby and Ainsty count, is calling it for Labour.

    On Twitter he is forecasting a 4-6k Labour win
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    viewcode said:

    It's reported on the Vote UK boards that David Herdson, now of the Yorkshire Party and present at the Selby and Ainsty count, is calling it for Labour.

    Linky plz?
    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16996/selby-ainsty?page=21
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,607
    Frome station, October 2015
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Time for an election night spreadsheet?

    Declarations at GE2019, GE2017, GE2015.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit#gid=0

    Selby & Ainsty:
    2019: 0345
    2017: 0320
    2015: 0606

    Somerton & Frome:
    2019: 0516
    2017: 0246
    2015: 0537

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip:
    2019: 0340
    2017: 0248
    2015: 0430

    Oh, now you have a spreadsheet?

    :)
    "Now I have a spreadsheet! Ho Ho Ho!"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023
    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820

    viewcode said:

    It's reported on the Vote UK boards that David Herdson, now of the Yorkshire Party and present at the Selby and Ainsty count, is calling it for Labour.

    Linky plz?
    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16996/selby-ainsty?page=21
    Most kind, thank you
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    Lib Dems claim victory in Somerton & Frome.

    Sky News.

    Shock horror. LDs claim by-election victory in a seat they held for 18 consecutive years until 2015.
    Interesting they've claimed victory so early, suggests it might be something like 60% to 30%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    Andy_JS said:

    Lib Dems claim victory in Somerton & Frome.

    Sky News.

    Shock horror. LDs claim by-election victory in a seat they held for 18 consecutive years until 2015.
    Nonetheless it is a seat they have barely recovered in since then, it's not like Cheltenham or anything.

    Looking at the past results looks like they did bloody well to hold it for that long, with 3 majorities under 1000.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,373
    edited July 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    edited July 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    "Ladies and gents, you'er all in for a rare treat here at the Old King Chuck: the classic, old-school comedy of that hilarious music-hall duo of yesteryear - Selby and Ainsty!"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,607
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    Hey, HYUFD, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Labour Fans will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got posters, dodgy bar charts...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,373
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    edited July 2023

    "Ladies and gents, you'er all in for a rare treat here at the Old King Chuck: the classic, old-school comedy of that hilarious music-hall duo of yesteryear - Selby and Ainsty!"

    "A song, a dance, and a bit with a dog. With their lovely assistant Betty, they bring you the wonders of the far desert. Pleeze put your hands together and welcome your own, your very own, Selby, Ainsty and Betty"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    I always thought Uxbridge could be close, but I'd still be fairly amazed if the Tories actually hold it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
    Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Royal family to get pay rise of almost 50% in 25/26.

    2012/13 - £30m
    2024/25 - £86m
    2025/26 - £125m

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jul/20/king-charles-to-receive-huge-pay-rise-from-uk-taxpayers
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed is already the best part of the evening and I’m sure @bigjohnowls will agree with me

    https://twitter.com/lukeakehurst/status/1682127201615900680
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599
    MikeL said:

    Royal family to get pay rise of almost 50% in 25/26.

    2012/13 - £30m
    2024/25 - £86m
    2025/26 - £125m

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jul/20/king-charles-to-receive-huge-pay-rise-from-uk-taxpayers

    Harry and Andrew's strike worked then.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    "For highly-discerning, demanding high-achievers, who don't mind working up a sweat, provided they can freshen and refresh, everywhere in every way - thanks to the herbal botanicals (and visa versa) obtainable only from Somerset's finest purveyors of high-priced unguents: Somerton and Frome.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,880
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
    Maybe kicking Boris out has given the Tories a better chance in Uxbridge. Negative incumbency because the voters of Uxbridge know what a lying liability he is.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599

    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed is already the best part of the evening and I’m sure @bigjohnowls will agree with me

    https://twitter.com/lukeakehurst/status/1682127201615900680

    That was the plot of the Minder episode where Arthur stood for the local council and dished out free chocolates. #1980sNostalgia
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,377
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
    It might embolden him to stand in Bedford.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,373

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
    It might embolden him to stand in Bedford.
    No ULEZ issue and it would go Labour on the likely Selby swing now forecast. Plus CCHQ may not allow him to be a candidate
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    U

    L

    E

    Z

    Is that the new cry of the Martians in the War of the Worlds sequel?
    No that was "ulla". You may be mistaking it for the cries in Rad Bradbury's The martian Chronicles. Which was also "ulla". Oh. Or possibly the Martians in Alan Moore's "League of Extraordinary Gentlemen". Which was also also "ulla". Oh fuck. :(
    I was merely speculating whether the Martians mixed it up a bit in Stephen Baxter's 'The Massacre of Mankind', which I own but have not got around to reading. Apparently he also did a sequel to The Time Machine.
    @kle4. It's late-period Baxter. I used to make a point of buying everything he wrote, but he's really gone off in later years, especially with the Xeelee temporal reboot. His standalones/duology+collections are still good (eg "Galaxias"), but these days it comes from library, not from the shop. I got about half-way thru TMoM and gaveup.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    "Ladies and gents, you'er all in for a rare treat here at the Old King Chuck: the classic, old-school comedy of that hilarious music-hall duo of yesteryear - Selby and Ainsty!"

    "A song, a dance, and a bit with a dog. With their lovely assistant Betty, they bring you the wonders of the far desert. Pleeze put your hands together and welcome your own, your very own, Selby, Ainsty and Betty"
    Is Betty the dog? Aarrff!! Aarfff!!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023
    "Labour and Conservatives say Uxbridge is close
    Tim Burke
    Reporting from Uxbridge

    It’s hot here at Queensmead Sports Centre in Uxbridge - and not just in terms of the temperature.

    One Tory observer - scrunching up his face and holding his index finger and thumb millimetres apart - says it’s close.

    Labour say it’s close too.

    Which way, I ask. “Close is close," I'm told.

    Many of the candidates - of which there are 17 - and supporters haven’t arrived yet."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-66181315
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,373
    MikeL said:

    Royal family to get pay rise of almost 50% in 25/26.

    2012/13 - £30m
    2024/25 - £86m
    2025/26 - £125m

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jul/20/king-charles-to-receive-huge-pay-rise-from-uk-taxpayers

    Only as profits of Crown Estate up from wind farm lease sales. No impact on taxpayers whatever the republican Guardian says
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820

    viewcode said:

    "Ladies and gents, you'er all in for a rare treat here at the Old King Chuck: the classic, old-school comedy of that hilarious music-hall duo of yesteryear - Selby and Ainsty!"

    "A song, a dance, and a bit with a dog. With their lovely assistant Betty, they bring you the wonders of the far desert. Pleeze put your hands together and welcome your own, your very own, Selby, Ainsty and Betty"
    Is Betty the dog? Aarrff!! Aarfff!!
    Not quite. She was the lovely assistant. I do not know the name of the dog.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    edited July 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    "Posted at 0:190:19

    Labour and Conservatives say Uxbridge is close
    Tim Burke
    Reporting from Uxbridge
    It’s hot here at Queensmead Sports Centre in Uxbridge - and not just in terms of the temperature. One Tory observer - scrunching up his face and holding his index finger and thumb millimetres apart - says it’s close. Labour say it’s close too. Which way, I ask. “Close is close," I'm told. Many of the candidates - of which there are 17 - and supporters haven’t arrived yet."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-66181315

    If Labour win by a margin of less than Lozza Fox's vote I will wet my pants laughing. Which will not be pretty.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820

    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed...

    Pretend I am old and stupid - difficult I know, but try. What does "ratioed" mean?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,373
    BBC also now reporting Uxbridge is close
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023
    Labour MP speaking at the Uxbridge count on BBC1 doesn't exactly look super-confident of victory.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    Mark Kermode reviews Oppenheimer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF1_B0fDFas
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,500
    edited July 2023
    Canfranc has reopened as a hotel.

    "This vast, mythical Spanish rail station is now a luxury hotel"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a8b9c80e-2494-11ee-8c1b-d5d52b458fbd?shareToken=e4a3b16e052b6a2e6e58134e42e338dd
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed...

    Pretend I am old and stupid - difficult I know, but try. What does "ratioed" mean?
    It’s a Twitter thing. Basically the ratio of comments to likes/retweets.

    Being “ratioed” means that there are many more people commenting on your tweet then liking or retweeting it. In other words, a whole bunch of people think you are categorically wrong. Which in the case of Luke Akehurst is probably a fair bet.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,612
    edited July 2023
    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed...

    Pretend I am old and stupid - difficult I know, but try. What does "ratioed" mean?
    You make a comment on the Twitter.

    You get many more replies than positive reactions.

    This usually means you said something stupid.*

    *In the opinion of people who inhabit Twitter.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    @El_Capitano , @Flatlander. Thank you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,373
    LDs on BBC say Conservatives vote has collapsed in Somerton and Frome and they have not only won but decisively
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed...

    Pretend I am old and stupid - difficult I know, but try. What does "ratioed" mean?
    You make a comment on the Twitter.

    You get many more replies than positive reactions.

    This usually means you said something stupid.*

    *In the opinion of people who inhabit Twitter.
    I've never really understood this, because the replies could be in support of the comment as well as against it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,448
    edited July 2023

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed...

    Pretend I am old and stupid - difficult I know, but try. What does "ratioed" mean?
    You make a comment on the Twitter.

    You get many more replies than positive reactions.

    This usually means you said something stupid.*

    *In the opinion of people who inhabit Twitter.
    Often associated with a form of "brigading" though, so not really representative of whether your tweet is popular or not.

    I had quite a tough time when I suggested that pedestrianising some city centres would be a good idea and some big name WEF/UN conspiracy theorists ratioed me into oblivion. Has to suspend my account.

    Note: PB is great because it somehow manages to avoid all this stuff, while still allowing is to partake in some light piss taking.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    Didn't expect turnout to be higher in Uxbridge than Somerton. 46% v 44%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,373
    Conservative MP Andrew Jones at the Selby count says it looks close
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,448
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed...

    Pretend I am old and stupid - difficult I know, but try. What does "ratioed" mean?
    You make a comment on the Twitter.

    You get many more replies than positive reactions.

    This usually means you said something stupid.*

    *In the opinion of people who inhabit Twitter.
    I've never really understood this, because the replies could be in support of the comment as well as against it.
    It's usually a semi-coordinated pile on from similar accounts. If you catch the adverse attention of a popular football account you're in big trouble.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,377
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst getting utterly ratioed...

    Pretend I am old and stupid - difficult I know, but try. What does "ratioed" mean?
    You make a comment on the Twitter.

    You get many more replies than positive reactions.

    This usually means you said something stupid.*

    *In the opinion of people who inhabit Twitter.
    I've never really understood this, because the replies could be in support of the comment as well as against it.
    Think of an extreme version of it. If a tweet has zero likes and a hundred replies, you know they are not going to be positive.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,891
    Andy_JS said:

    Didn't expect turnout to be higher in Uxbridge than Somerton. 46% v 44%.

    It's all those Hindus.....
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Bloomin' heck.

    Fell asleep at 9.30pm, just woke up now and I'm wide awake.

    Shame there isn't anything going on in the world of politics at the moment............ It might have kept my interest up.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
    Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
    Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023
    Prediction for Selby turnout: around 42%, slightly lower than the other two. (Not based on any information I've seen, just a guess).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,077
    Andy_JS said:

    Didn't expect turnout to be higher in Uxbridge than Somerton. 46% v 44%.

    Conservative voters in Uxbridge rallied by ULEZ when their voters elsewhere have virtually no reason at all to vote for them?

    That plus the amusing possibility that Boris had a negative personal vote?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
    Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
    Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
    Someone seems confident about Labour winning two. Tories twice laid off the boards in Uxbridge. Labour 1.01 in Selby.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,607
    SKY - Uxbridge result "in an hour or so"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279

    SKY - Uxbridge result "in an hour or so"

    Sounds a bit optimistic!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    As part of Oxford University's "Meeting Minds" presentation 2023, you may be interested in the following:

    The New Leviathans: thoughts after liberalism
    16:00-17:00 23 September 2023
    Lecture Theatre 3, Mathematical Institute, Woodstock Rd, OX2 6GG
    In a time of wars of religion and political upheavals, the seventeenth century English philosopher, Thomas Hobbes, argued in his celebrated and infamous book, Leviathan, that the most powerful human need was for peace, not freedom. Without a strong state, society descended into a "war of all against all" in which no one was safe from their fellows. What does Hobbes teach us about the crises of liberal democracy and the rise of authoritarian regimes? Has the liberal dream of limiting the authority of government turned out to be an illusion?

    John Gray
    Emeritus Professor of European Thought
    London School of Economics
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023
    viewcode said:

    As part of Oxford University's "Meeting Minds" presentation 2023, you may be interested in the following:

    The New Leviathans: thoughts after liberalism
    16:00-17:00 23 September 2023
    Lecture Theatre 3, Mathematical Institute, Woodstock Rd, OX2 6GG
    In a time of wars of religion and political upheavals, the seventeenth century English philosopher, Thomas Hobbes, argued in his celebrated and infamous book, Leviathan, that the most powerful human need was for peace, not freedom. Without a strong state, society descended into a "war of all against all" in which no one was safe from their fellows. What does Hobbes teach us about the crises of liberal democracy and the rise of authoritarian regimes? Has the liberal dream of limiting the authority of government turned out to be an illusion?

    John Gray
    Emeritus Professor of European Thought
    London School of Economics

    Interesting. Always look forward to reading John Gray articles.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,505

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
    Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
    Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
    Someone seems confident about Labour winning two. Tories twice laid off the boards in Uxbridge. Labour 1.01 in Selby.
    The Betfair (Uxbridge) market is incredibly thin - £1-£6 available for most plausible bets (vs £1000+ in Selby). Not sure it tells us much. But someome just plonked £1500 on Labour at 1.2.
  • Returning officer in Uxbridge has put his tie on, LDs celebrating in Frome. Declarations imminent?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    Sir John Curtice on BBC looks as if he chose the wrong Holy Grail... :(
  • Returning officer in Uxbridge has put his tie on, LDs celebrating in Frome. Declarations imminent?

    He's put his jacket on now. It's like a reverse strip tease.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,077
    Uxbridge candidates been called to the stage, according to LBC
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820

    Uxbridge candidates been called to the stage, according to LBC

    It's live on telly, @Stuartinromford. See https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/l0056clc/elections-2023
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    Odd that no-one seems to know who's won Uxbridge.

    Reminds me of Dunfermline in about 2006 when the result was still uncertain as the candidates walked onto the stage.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    Andy_JS said:

    Odd that no-one seems to know who's won Uxbridge.

    Reminds me of Dunfermline in about 2006 when the result was still uncertain as the candidates walked onto the stage.

    Is that the one where Labour were favorite in the betting at the moment the LibDem was declared the winner? I think it's in @MikeSmithson's book
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,505
    Guardian: We’re hearing both the Uxbridge and South Ruislip and the Selby and Ainsty results could be declared in the next fifteen minutes. Stay tuned.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Odd that no-one seems to know who's won Uxbridge.

    Reminds me of Dunfermline in about 2006 when the result was still uncertain as the candidates walked onto the stage.

    Is that the one where Labour were favorite in the betting at the moment the LibDem was declared the winner? I think it's in @MikeSmithson's book
    Yes it was. LD win by about 1,500 votes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    Greens claiming that at one stage during the count they were in second place in Somerton & Frome, which would mean ahead of the Tories.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting that Uxbridge is the only one where a claim of victory hasn't been made so far.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
    46.23% (-17.3)
    31,000 votes cast

    11:57 PM · Jul 20, 2023"

    All parties now predicting Uxbridge will be a nail biter, Labour say it looks close.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1682162219679662081?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
    If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?

    Good turnout though.
    If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
    Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
    Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
    Someone seems confident about Labour winning two. Tories twice laid off the boards in Uxbridge. Labour 1.01 in Selby.
    The Betfair (Uxbridge) market is incredibly thin - £1-£6 available for most plausible bets (vs £1000+ in Selby). Not sure it tells us much. But someome just plonked £1500 on Labour at 1.2.
    A move to Conservative in Uxbridge. Labour still strong favourite.
  • A man with a giant comedy rosette has taken to the stage in Uxbridge, which I believe is the traditional sign of an imminent declaration.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279

    A man with a giant comedy rosette has taken to the stage in Uxbridge, which I believe is the traditional sign of an imminent declaration.

    The Loony candidate. But the rest of the candidates are still crowded around the results table.
  • A man with a giant comedy rosette has taken to the stage in Uxbridge, which I believe is the traditional sign of an imminent declaration.

    Have a bit of respect. That wasn't "a man with a giant comedy rosette". That was no less a personage than the MP presumptive for Uxbridge, Howling Laud Hope.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    Comment on the VoteUK forum.

    "Just had a call from a Labour cllr at the count and have been told that it is very close - could go either way."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 883
    I hope they won't all declare at the same time :(
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    Recount in Uxbridge
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 883
    RECOUNT IN UXBRIDGE
  • Recount in Uxbridge DAMNIT.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    edited July 2023
    RECOUNT IN UXBRIDGE.

    Not good news for Labour.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,077
    Bundle recount in Uxbridge
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    edited July 2023

    I hope they won't all declare at the same time :(

    @DoubleCarpet, welcome back!

    I'll tell you exactly when it will declare. 5 minutes after I go to bed. :)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Lab still clear favourite on Betfair.

    Surely someone must know who was ahead on first count?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    Worth noting that under Corbyn's leadership in 2017 Labour came within 5,034 votes of winning Uxbridge.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,820
    Some of you may remember @JohnLoony , formerly of this parish. He's posting on https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16994/uxbridge-south-ruislip?page=20
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Who knows whether Boris has a positive or negative personal vote.

    But if it was positive, he must be kicking himself.

    Imagine if he had stood and won against all the odds. He would have been in a great position for a comeback.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,279
    MikeL said:

    Lab still clear favourite on Betfair.

    Surely someone must know who was ahead on first count?

    Very unusual in the age of Twitter for no-one to have leaked that information. Maybe the returning officer has cracked down on it?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I do find the concern about the colour of someones skin (or gender) in a work of fiction to be a strange concept. I think one of the best versions of David Copperfield I have ever seen was the 2019 version with Dev Patel. Just brilliant because all you could see was the quality of the acting.

    It does worry me that we have this move towards claiming that minority characters can only be played by someone from that minority. It seems to undermine the whole point of acting.

    Snow White not being very very white does seem a tad egregious. In the latest movie she is kinda Hispanic and dusky

    The whole point of the fairy tale is that she has snowy white skin. Hence her name

    I’ve no problem with casting anyone as anyone, within reason, but when it actually destroys the basic premise of the story: then yes. I have a problem.
    It's ironic because the Hispanic star, Rachel Zegler, rose to fame playing Maria in the Spielberg remake of West Side Story, where she took on the role (a Puerto Rican) that had been played by Natalie Wood, a white actress, in the original film. So perhaps this is some kind of payback.
    I wonder whether this will cause the same furore as when Disney remade the Little Mermaid with a black actor, Halle Bailey, in the title role - when everyone knows that mermaids are white!
    I think the Halle Bailey Mermaid is fine. But I do get the point Leon is making about a character called 'Snow White' because of a specific characteristic but who then... wasn't.

    Not that it is really worth falling out over :)
    It's just her name though, it's not like she's Othello and her racial background is key to the whole story. The point is that she is young and beautiful and this angers her stepmother who is growing old - and the story dates from a time where having very fair skin was synonymous with beauty - which isn't really the case for Western beauty standards these days. Rachel Zegler is certainly very beautiful in a youthful and innocent kind of way, so I think it is decent casting.
    But the reason she is called Snow White is coz her skin is white as snow. It’s not a frigging metaphor, it’s the basis of the story

    From the original Grimms’ Fairy Tale


    “a queen sat at her window working, and her embroidery-frame was of ebony. And as she worked, gazing at times out on the snow, she pricked her finger, and there fell from it three drops of blood on the snow. And when she saw how bright and red it looked, she said to herself, "Oh that I had a child as white as snow, as red as blood, and as black as the wood of the embroidery frame!" Not very long after she had a daughter, with a skin as white as snow, lips as red as blood, and hair as black as ebony, and she was named Snow-white.”

    I mean, that’s that. The Queen didn’t wish for a “beautiful Latinx daughter with a pure heart which could be unfairly termed ‘white’ in a racialised society’

    She asked for a child as white as snow

    Not really a lot of wriggle room there. The movie will likely bomb like so many recent Woke Disney efforts
    That was then, this is now.

    Modern retellings update things all the frigging time, so what if that was what was written then? Then that was the standard for beauty, now it is not.

    Get with the times, grandpa.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Con ODDS ON!!!
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,891
    MikeL said:

    Lab still clear favourite on Betfair.

    Surely someone must know who was ahead on first count?

    It's Labour that asked for the recount.
  • Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I do find the concern about the colour of someones skin (or gender) in a work of fiction to be a strange concept. I think one of the best versions of David Copperfield I have ever seen was the 2019 version with Dev Patel. Just brilliant because all you could see was the quality of the acting.

    It does worry me that we have this move towards claiming that minority characters can only be played by someone from that minority. It seems to undermine the whole point of acting.

    Snow White not being very very white does seem a tad egregious. In the latest movie she is kinda Hispanic and dusky

    The whole point of the fairy tale is that she has snowy white skin. Hence her name

    I’ve no problem with casting anyone as anyone, within reason, but when it actually destroys the basic premise of the story: then yes. I have a problem.
    It's ironic because the Hispanic star, Rachel Zegler, rose to fame playing Maria in the Spielberg remake of West Side Story, where she took on the role (a Puerto Rican) that had been played by Natalie Wood, a white actress, in the original film. So perhaps this is some kind of payback.
    I wonder whether this will cause the same furore as when Disney remade the Little Mermaid with a black actor, Halle Bailey, in the title role - when everyone knows that mermaids are white!
    I think the Halle Bailey Mermaid is fine. But I do get the point Leon is making about a character called 'Snow White' because of a specific characteristic but who then... wasn't.

    Not that it is really worth falling out over :)
    It's just her name though, it's not like she's Othello and her racial background is key to the whole story. The point is that she is young and beautiful and this angers her stepmother who is growing old - and the story dates from a time where having very fair skin was synonymous with beauty - which isn't really the case for Western beauty standards these days. Rachel Zegler is certainly very beautiful in a youthful and innocent kind of way, so I think it is decent casting.
    But the reason she is called Snow White is coz her skin is white as snow. It’s not a frigging metaphor, it’s the basis of the story

    From the original Grimms’ Fairy Tale


    “a queen sat at her window working, and her embroidery-frame was of ebony. And as she worked, gazing at times out on the snow, she pricked her finger, and there fell from it three drops of blood on the snow. And when she saw how bright and red it looked, she said to herself, "Oh that I had a child as white as snow, as red as blood, and as black as the wood of the embroidery frame!" Not very long after she had a daughter, with a skin as white as snow, lips as red as blood, and hair as black as ebony, and she was named Snow-white.”

    I mean, that’s that. The Queen didn’t wish for a “beautiful Latinx daughter with a pure heart which could be unfairly termed ‘white’ in a racialised society’

    She asked for a child as white as snow

    Not really a lot of wriggle room there. The movie will likely bomb like so many recent Woke Disney efforts
    It might, but not for that reason I would think.

    Though at risk of losing liberal cred I've always taken the position that casting decisions really should be race blind unless there is a specific reason of character or story that means there is a significance to it - eg, if you want a reaslitic feeling historical film Benedict Cumberbatch playing Shaka Zulu would probably be an unnecessary distraction, whereas who gives a crap whether an alien Time Lord is white, black, female or any mixture of anything (so long as they are British, naturally), or if a fish person is any skin colour whatsoever? If a character's appearance is pretty specific and you decide to change that, for what reason and could you just do your own thing entirely? So I kind of get a moan about this one, given the reverse would be pilloried.
    These movies bomb because Hollywood is now heavily dependant on Chinese and other global audiences to make really major profits, and these audiences object to Wokeness big time

    It is one of the reasons we won’t see a black James Bond
    Why are you so obsessed with skin colour? Time and time again you raise some perceived gripe or outrage which boils down to somebody's skin colour.

    What is your problem?
    He's racist.
This discussion has been closed.