LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?
Good turnout though.
If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
Someone seems confident about Labour winning two. Tories twice laid off the boards in Uxbridge. Labour 1.01 in Selby.
The Betfair (Uxbridge) market is incredibly thin - £1-£6 available for most plausible bets (vs £1000+ in Selby). Not sure it tells us much. But someome just plonked £1500 on Labour at 1.2.
A move to Conservative in Uxbridge. Labour still strong favourite.
400 votes is very unlikely to be overturned by a recount. Most I've ever heard of was 120 votes in Sittingbourne and Sheppey in 2005 for the Tories, which turned into a Labour majority of 79 after recounts.
Surely someone must know who was ahead on first count?
Very unusual in the age of Twitter for no-one to have leaked that information. Maybe the returning officer has cracked down on it?
Maybe we're not looking at the right Twitter...
Y'know what? Somebody from PB should get themselves accredited and run a surruptitious live feed from the Arndale leisure centre in South-East-Northern-on-Tweed so we can get the good stuff early
400 votes is very unlikely to be overturned by a recount. Most I've ever heard of was 120 votes in Sittingbourne and Sheppey in 2005 for the Tories, which turned into a Labour majority of 79 after recounts.
I read it was a bundle check rather than a full recount? Maybe they're hoping the wrong stack of several hundred has been placed somewhere.
400 votes is very unlikely to be overturned by a recount. Most I've ever heard of was 120 votes in Sittingbourne and Sheppey in 2005 for the Tories, which turned into a Labour majority of 79 after recounts.
I read it was a bundle check rather than a full recount? Maybe they're hoping the wrong stack of several hundred has been placed somewhere.
Announced as recount of Lab & Con; bundle checks for the rest.
Pretend I am old and stupid - difficult I know, but try. What does "ratioed" mean?
You make a comment on the Twitter.
You get many more replies than positive reactions.
This usually means you said something stupid.*
*In the opinion of people who inhabit Twitter.
I've never really understood this, because the replies could be in support of the comment as well as against it.
Think of an extreme version of it. If a tweet has zero likes and a hundred replies, you know they are not going to be positive.
So what, though?
I mean on here I'd rather an interesting discussion than mindless posts simply hunting for likes.
If there's an interesting back and forth in the replies, then that means you've sparked an interesting discussion presumably. That people think its worth responding to?
It says something about Twitter that the merit of quality is mindless clicks of a like button, rather than actual engagement of a thought-out reply.
LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?
Good turnout though.
If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
Someone seems confident about Labour winning two. Tories twice laid off the boards in Uxbridge. Labour 1.01 in Selby.
The Betfair (Uxbridge) market is incredibly thin - £1-£6 available for most plausible bets (vs £1000+ in Selby). Not sure it tells us much. But someome just plonked £1500 on Labour at 1.2.
A move to Conservative in Uxbridge. Labour still strong favourite.
Tories 1.02 in Uxbridge.
ETA 1.3 but Con now favourite.
Con 1.05 Lab 5 Looks like some punters are taking their profits.
400 votes is very unlikely to be overturned by a recount. Most I've ever heard of was 120 votes in Sittingbourne and Sheppey in 2005 for the Tories, which turned into a Labour majority of 79 after recounts.
I read it was a bundle check rather than a full recount? Maybe they're hoping the wrong stack of several hundred has been placed somewhere.
No, a bundle check of the minor candidates, a full check of the Con and Lab votes. But I agree that 400 votes are unlikely to swing.
LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?
Good turnout though.
If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
Someone seems confident about Labour winning two. Tories twice laid off the boards in Uxbridge. Labour 1.01 in Selby.
The Betfair (Uxbridge) market is incredibly thin - £1-£6 available for most plausible bets (vs £1000+ in Selby). Not sure it tells us much. But someome just plonked £1500 on Labour at 1.2.
A move to Conservative in Uxbridge. Labour still strong favourite.
Tories 1.02 in Uxbridge.
ETA 1.3 but Con now favourite.
Con 1.05 Lab 5 Looks like some punters are taking their profits.
Labour laid off the boards; Market quite thin now as punters take their money off the table.
LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?
Good turnout though.
If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
Someone seems confident about Labour winning two. Tories twice laid off the boards in Uxbridge. Labour 1.01 in Selby.
The Betfair (Uxbridge) market is incredibly thin - £1-£6 available for most plausible bets (vs £1000+ in Selby). Not sure it tells us much. But someome just plonked £1500 on Labour at 1.2.
A move to Conservative in Uxbridge. Labour still strong favourite.
Tories 1.02 in Uxbridge.
ETA 1.3 but Con now favourite.
Con 1.05 Lab 5 Looks like some punters are taking their profits.
Yep. Got to thank human outlier Hyfud for tonight's profit.
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
People just want the Tories out.
They don't want Labour policies. In fact, some of the problems the Tories are currently facing is because of the Labour-lite stuff: high taxes, mortgage rates etc.
LDs look to have romped home in Somerton, Labour say they have won Selby by a few thousand it looks like too
If only that Boris bloke, beloved of his party base and constituency, had trusted his local voters and stood in a recall by-election (if one even succeeded), rather than run away in a fit of pique, maybe it would have been a comfortable Tory win?
Good turnout though.
If the Tories hold Uxbridge but lose Selby and Somerton then Boris will kick himself for not fighting the recall by election
Tories being backed on Betfair (for Uxbridge).
Uxbridge Tories drifting but still shorter than when the count started. 4/1 from 13/2 via 2/1.
Someone seems confident about Labour winning two. Tories twice laid off the boards in Uxbridge. Labour 1.01 in Selby.
The Betfair (Uxbridge) market is incredibly thin - £1-£6 available for most plausible bets (vs £1000+ in Selby). Not sure it tells us much. But someome just plonked £1500 on Labour at 1.2.
A move to Conservative in Uxbridge. Labour still strong favourite.
Tories 1.02 in Uxbridge.
ETA 1.3 but Con now favourite.
Con 1.05 Lab 5 Looks like some punters are taking their profits.
Yep. Got to thank human outlier Hyfud for tonight's profit.
Play your winnings up on HYUFD for tipster of the year.
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
Implement the left wing policies that Hunt and Sunak are following, but from Downing Street?
Adopt left-wing responses to unforeseen events and challenges, which inevitably occur all the time?
Funnel taxpayers money from being redistributed towards the Tories preferred client vote, to Labour's preferred client vote?
One could ask if Hunt and Sunak are continuing with record taxes, record spending, and ever increasing redistribution then what on earth is the point of the Tories?
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
People just want the Tories out.
They don't want Labour policies. In fact, some of the problems the Tories are currently facing is because of the Labour-lite stuff: high taxes, mortgage rates etc.
It's almost as if Labour are regarded as the incumbents in London and the Tories the opposition. Means the usual by-election assumptions about kicking the government don't work quite as well.
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
Stand in an authoritative manner. Possibly point at things.
The power stance is another Conservative policy SKS will adopt. #BlueTory
Incidentally, the study proposing the power stance was later retried by somebody else and could not be reproduced, and I think it's now thought to be nonpredictive. I'll try to chase it up.
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
People just want the Tories out.
They don't want Labour policies. In fact, some of the problems the Tories are currently facing is because of the Labour-lite stuff: high taxes, mortgage rates etc.
So correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't mortgage rates following the interest rates which are set by the MPC? I think Ken Clarke was the last Chancellor to have control of interest rates?
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
People just want the Tories out.
They don't want Labour policies. In fact, some of the problems the Tories are currently facing is because of the Labour-lite stuff: high taxes, mortgage rates etc.
It's almost as if Labour are regarded as the incumbents in London and the Tories the opposition. Means the usual by-election assumptions about kicking the government don't work quite as well.
Especially for the outermost ring of London that doesn't want to be London really. But there aren't enough votes there to win London, let alone the country.
(And I stick to my theory that peak ULEZ unpopularity is in the next month, and the reality will be better received than the anticipation.)
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
People just want the Tories out.
They don't want Labour policies. In fact, some of the problems the Tories are currently facing is because of the Labour-lite stuff: high taxes, mortgage rates etc.
It's almost as if Labour are regarded as the incumbents in London and the Tories the opposition. Means the usual by-election assumptions about kicking the government don't work quite as well.
Especially for the outermost ring of London that doesn't want to be London really. But there aren't enough votes there to win London, let alone the country.
(And I stick to my theory that peak ULEZ unpopularity is in the next month, and the reality will be better received than the anticipation.)
I agree with your theory. But I’d also say that Labour tactics on this issue have been hamfisted.
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
Implement the left wing policies that Hunt and Sunak are following, but from Downing Street?
Adopt left-wing responses to unforeseen events and challenges, which inevitably occur all the time?
Funnel taxpayers money from being redistributed towards the Tories preferred client vote, to Labour's preferred client vote?
One could ask if Hunt and Sunak are continuing with record taxes, record spending, and ever increasing redistribution then what on earth is the point of the Tories?
And yet, unless the Conservatives can come up with realistic ways of cutting spending... What are they meant to do?
Let's remember who brought ULEZ in to begin with. Boris Johnson, who triggered this by-election just before ULEZ was expanded, thus handing his successor a prime local issue to campaign on, which was only possible because of his ULEZ to begin with.
A journalist is going to write or say tomorrow something like: "These results show the inherent reasonableness of British voters, electing one Conservative, one Labour and one Liberal Democrat from 3 by-elections". Perhaps Matthew Parris. Sounds a bit like him.
Let's remember who brought ULEZ in to begin with. Boris Johnson, who triggered this by-election just before ULEZ was expanded, thus handing his successor a prime local issue to campaign on, which was only possible because of his ULEZ to begin with.
Man played the very long game...
I know you are joking but this is one of those head-in-the-sand memes.
ULEZ inside the ring road is one thing. ULEZ inside the M25 is another thing altogether.
Wikipedia is not altogether convincing on ULEZ’s actual impact.
The fact that Shaun Bailey was able to win 45% against him is supporting evidence.
Labour has lost three of the six London Mayoral elections. If CCHQ ran a decent campaign they could take it back. It's like Wales: for years CCHQ had given up but now they have more than a dozen Welsh MPs.
Con 13,965 Lab 13,470 Green 893 Fox 714 LD 526 SDP 248
It makes you (or me anyway) wonder what would have been the result without all the minor anti-Ulez candidates. Would their several hundred voters have plumped for red, blue or a night in front of the telly?
Con 13,965 Lab 13,470 Green 893 Fox 714 LD 526 SDP 248
It makes you (or me anyway) wonder what would have been the result without all the minor anti-Ulez candidates. Would their several hundred voters have plumped for red, blue or a night in front of the telly?
Also, hello Green voters? Is that really the outcome you wanted?
Somerton & Frome imminent. The LDs picked a crap candidate, and are now stuck with a third-ranker in what has probably become one of their safer seats.
Such a terrible candidate that she won a seat on Somerset council against the Conservatives' expert on combatting the Lib Dems. And now today....
Goodness me this is going to make Starmer even more cautious about any tax increases at all.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
Implement the left wing policies that Hunt and Sunak are following, but from Downing Street?
Adopt left-wing responses to unforeseen events and challenges, which inevitably occur all the time?
Funnel taxpayers money from being redistributed towards the Tories preferred client vote, to Labour's preferred client vote?
One could ask if Hunt and Sunak are continuing with record taxes, record spending, and ever increasing redistribution then what on earth is the point of the Tories?
And yet, unless the Conservatives can come up with realistic ways of cutting spending... What are they meant to do?
There are many realistic ways of cutting spending, the Conservatives just don't want to adopt any of them.
Con 13,965 Lab 13,470 Green 893 Fox 714 LD 526 SDP 248
It makes you (or me anyway) wonder what would have been the result without all the minor anti-Ulez candidates. Would their several hundred voters have plumped for red, blue or a night in front of the telly?
Probably would have gone to the Tories since they were making it a big issue.
Con 13,965 Lab 13,470 Green 893 Fox 714 LD 526 SDP 248
It makes you (or me anyway) wonder what would have been the result without all the minor anti-Ulez candidates. Would their several hundred voters have plumped for red, blue or a night in front of the telly?
Also, hello Green voters? Is that really the outcome you wanted?
In a lot of cases, probably yes.
Perhaps if the Labour candidate hadn't been so weaselly on ulez they'd have felt able to support him.
Somerton & Frome imminent. The LDs picked a crap candidate, and are now stuck with a third-ranker in what has probably become one of their safer seats.
Such a terrible candidate that she won a seat on Somerset council against the Conservatives' expert on combatting the Lib Dems. And now today....
That’s a reasonable response. But I fear that LD is starting to resemble a party for grumpy Karens, a not notably liberal demographic.
Con 13,965 Lab 13,470 Green 893 Fox 714 LD 526 SDP 248
It makes you (or me anyway) wonder what would have been the result without all the minor anti-Ulez candidates. Would their several hundred voters have plumped for red, blue or a night in front of the telly?
Probably would have gone to the Tories since they were making it a big issue.
Perhaps but the fact they did not surely implies these were anti-Tory anti-Ulez voters.
Let's remember who brought ULEZ in to begin with. Boris Johnson, who triggered this by-election just before ULEZ was expanded, thus handing his successor a prime local issue to campaign on, which was only possible because of his ULEZ to begin with.
Man played the very long game...
I know you are joking but this is one of those head-in-the-sand memes.
ULEZ inside the ring road is one thing. ULEZ inside the M25 is another thing altogether.
Wikipedia is not altogether convincing on ULEZ’s actual impact.
Yes indeed, its a case of horses for courses.
Its a bit like how Andy Burnham attempted to implement a scheme for the entirety of Greater Manchester based upon the 'success' of schemes in London and the idea of having 'consistency' across the whole of Greater Manchester.
As if the rural outskirts of Wigan require the same policies of inner London or inner Manchester City Centre.
Somerton & Frome imminent. The LDs picked a crap candidate, and are now stuck with a third-ranker in what has probably become one of their safer seats.
Such a terrible candidate that she won a seat on Somerset council against the Conservatives' expert on combatting the Lib Dems. And now today....
That’s a reasonable response. But I fear that LD is starting to resemble a party for grumpy Karens, a not notably liberal demographic.
Grumpy Sarahs, you mean. As someone pointed out on the last thread, 20 per cent of LibDem MPs are called Sarah.
Somerton & Frome imminent. The LDs picked a crap candidate, and are now stuck with a third-ranker in what has probably become one of their safer seats.
Such a terrible candidate that she won a seat on Somerset council against the Conservatives' expert on combatting the Lib Dems. And now today....
That’s a reasonable response. But I fear that LD is starting to resemble a party for grumpy Karens, a not notably liberal demographic.
Fear not, Mr Walker. Fear not..... All is well in Lib Dem land.....
Somerton & Frome imminent. The LDs picked a crap candidate, and are now stuck with a third-ranker in what has probably become one of their safer seats.
Such a terrible candidate that she won a seat on Somerset council against the Conservatives' expert on combatting the Lib Dems. And now today....
That’s a reasonable response. But I fear that LD is starting to resemble a party for grumpy Karens, a not notably liberal demographic.
Fear not, Mr Walker. Fear not..... All is well in Lib Dem land.....
I don’t really see great thinking pouring out of the Lib Dems these days, I’m afraid.
FPTP (which I think I still want to defend) is kind of choking off oxygen to the brains of all the major parties.
LD 21,187 Con 10,179 Green 3,944 Reform UK 1,303 Lab 1,009
Based solely on the by-elections you'd be forgiven for thinking that Ed Davey, not SKS, should be the one preparing for Government.
I know Labour hardly campaigned in Somerton & Frome but fifth behind the Greens and RefUK is shockingly bad.
Embarrassing, yes.
But the FPTP game is about getting the votes you need in the places you need them. For Labour, that isn't Somerton and Frome.
Unless you're a Somerset Socialist, the fewer votes Labour get there, the better.
No, its not Somerton, but it is Uxbridge.
To be falling fifth in a by-election you're not competitive in, while winning a thumping victory in one you are competitive in, is one thing.
To be doing so in the one you're not competitive in, while losing the one you should be competitive in, is something else entirely.
I still think Labour will win a majority in the next election, but its because people have no love for today's Tories or Sunak, Hunt etc - not because of any great admiration for Labour, SKS etc
LD 21,187 Con 10,179 Green 3,944 Reform UK 1,303 Lab 1,009
Based solely on the by-elections you'd be forgiven for thinking that Ed Davey, not SKS, should be the one preparing for Government.
I know Labour hardly campaigned in Somerton & Frome but fifth behind the Greens and RefUK is shockingly bad.
Embarrassing, yes.
But the FPTP game is about getting the votes you need in the places you need them. For Labour, that isn't Somerton and Frome.
Unless you're a Somerset Socialist, the fewer votes Labour get there, the better.
No, its not Somerton, but it is Uxbridge.
To be falling fifth in a by-election you're not competitive in, while winning a thumping victory in one you are competitive in, is one thing.
To be doing so in the one you're not competitive in, while losing the one you should be competitive in, is something else entirely.
I still think Labour will win a majority in the next election, but its because people have no love for today's Tories or Sunak, Hunt etc - not because of any great admiration for Labour, SKS etc
There's one more result to come, which I think everyone is now expecting to be a Labour win on a humongous swing.
It's a stark reminder that you can't just look at the majority last time and apply national swing. We all do it, because it's about all we can do, but it doesn't work like that. For now, fringe London is receptive to the Conservative message in a way that other places aren't. But there's not much of it.
LD 21,187 Con 10,179 Green 3,944 Reform UK 1,303 Lab 1,009
Based solely on the by-elections you'd be forgiven for thinking that Ed Davey, not SKS, should be the one preparing for Government.
I know Labour hardly campaigned in Somerton & Frome but fifth behind the Greens and RefUK is shockingly bad.
Embarrassing, yes.
But the FPTP game is about getting the votes you need in the places you need them. For Labour, that isn't Somerton and Frome.
Unless you're a Somerset Socialist, the fewer votes Labour get there, the better.
If you’re a Somerset Socialist, you went Green.
Or Lib Dem, obviously. Depeends how much you wanted to get the Tories out, and how much you felt free to cast an ineffective protest vote.
What we really need is electoral reform.
Or what we really need is parties to stop moaning about the system and to work towards devising positive policies that work towards attracting the most votes so they get duly elected.
LD 21,187 Con 10,179 Green 3,944 Reform UK 1,303 Lab 1,009
Based solely on the by-elections you'd be forgiven for thinking that Ed Davey, not SKS, should be the one preparing for Government.
I know Labour hardly campaigned in Somerton & Frome but fifth behind the Greens and RefUK is shockingly bad.
Embarrassing, yes.
But the FPTP game is about getting the votes you need in the places you need them. For Labour, that isn't Somerton and Frome.
Unless you're a Somerset Socialist, the fewer votes Labour get there, the better.
If you’re a Somerset Socialist, you went Green.
Or Lib Dem, obviously. Depeends how much you wanted to get the Tories out, and how much you felt free to cast an ineffective protest vote.
What we really need is electoral reform.
Or what we really need is parties to stop moaning about the system and to work towards devising positive policies that work towards attracting the most votes so they get duly elected.
Well, it would have the attraction of novelty if nothing else...
LD 21,187 Con 10,179 Green 3,944 Reform UK 1,303 Lab 1,009
Based solely on the by-elections you'd be forgiven for thinking that Ed Davey, not SKS, should be the one preparing for Government.
I know Labour hardly campaigned in Somerton & Frome but fifth behind the Greens and RefUK is shockingly bad.
Embarrassing, yes.
But the FPTP game is about getting the votes you need in the places you need them. For Labour, that isn't Somerton and Frome.
Unless you're a Somerset Socialist, the fewer votes Labour get there, the better.
If you’re a Somerset Socialist, you went Green.
Or Lib Dem, obviously. Depeends how much you wanted to get the Tories out, and how much you felt free to cast an ineffective protest vote.
What we really need is electoral reform.
Or what we really need is parties to stop moaning about the system and to work towards devising positive policies that work towards attracting the most votes so they get duly elected.
And if those policies include "don't build anything in my patch"?
A journalist is going to write or say tomorrow something like: "These results show the inherent reasonableness of British voters, electing one Conservative, one Labour and one Liberal Democrat from 3 by-elections". Perhaps Matthew Parris. Sounds a bit like him.
One of those "the people have spoken, but we've no idea what they've said" moments.
Does anyone else find the panels of politicians on these by-election nights incredibly tedious? They almost never say anything unexpected or insightful (I normally mute them) and I'm always much more interested in what analysts and reporters have to say.
One good thing about US election nights is you don't seem to have panels of politicians in the studio, at least when I've watched CNN and Fox.
Does anyone else find the panels of politicians on these by-election nights incredibly tedious? They almost never say anything unexpected or insightful (I normally mute them) and I'm always much more interested in what analysts and reporters have to say.
One good thing about US election nights is you don't seem to have panels of politicians in the studio, at least when I've watched CNN and Fox.
Yes, I agree about the politicians. For some reason I keep listening to them each time as if it might change this time.
LD 21,187 Con 10,179 Green 3,944 Reform UK 1,303 Lab 1,009
Based solely on the by-elections you'd be forgiven for thinking that Ed Davey, not SKS, should be the one preparing for Government.
I know Labour hardly campaigned in Somerton & Frome but fifth behind the Greens and RefUK is shockingly bad.
Embarrassing, yes.
But the FPTP game is about getting the votes you need in the places you need them. For Labour, that isn't Somerton and Frome.
Unless you're a Somerset Socialist, the fewer votes Labour get there, the better.
If you’re a Somerset Socialist, you went Green.
Or Lib Dem, obviously. Depeends how much you wanted to get the Tories out, and how much you felt free to cast an ineffective protest vote.
What we really need is electoral reform.
Or what we really need is parties to stop moaning about the system and to work towards devising positive policies that work towards attracting the most votes so they get duly elected.
And if those policies include "don't build anything in my patch"?
Then I for one will vote against them, and campaign against them, but at least we know where they stand and I and others will have to work harder to win the argument to ensure they are not duly elected.
Comments
Conservatives are 400 votes ahead in Uxbridge.
Bloody hell.
There really is little love for them.
ETA 1.3 but Con now favourite.
Gives a bit of a morale boost.
PB the place to be - as always!!!
Y'know what? Somebody from PB should get themselves accredited and run a surruptitious live feed from the Arndale leisure centre in South-East-Northern-on-Tweed so we can get the good stuff early
I mean on here I'd rather an interesting discussion than mindless posts simply hunting for likes.
If there's an interesting back and forth in the replies, then that means you've sparked an interesting discussion presumably. That people think its worth responding to?
It says something about Twitter that the merit of quality is mindless clicks of a like button, rather than actual engagement of a thought-out reply.
And, kudos to HYUFD - still not sure whether he had a bet on Uxbridge himself though?
Lab 5
Looks like some punters are taking their profits.
It's quite funny really - everyone desperate to get the Conservatives out and Starmer is going to come in and continue with all existing policies?
If he's sticking with both the two child limit and the bedroom tax, what on earth is he actually going to do?
They don't want Labour policies. In fact, some of the problems the Tories are currently facing is because of the Labour-lite stuff: high taxes, mortgage rates etc.
We should note that he also said that, despite that, he thought the Tories in Uxbridge were a value bet.
Adopt left-wing responses to unforeseen events and challenges, which inevitably occur all the time?
Funnel taxpayers money from being redistributed towards the Tories preferred client vote, to Labour's preferred client vote?
One could ask if Hunt and Sunak are continuing with record taxes, record spending, and ever increasing redistribution then what on earth is the point of the Tories?
If Nigel Adams hadn't insisted on following Boris over the cliff, Starmer really would have a problem in the morning...
Similar to LTNs which are popular with most but definitely increase traffic on boundary roads and are hated by a sizeable minority.
(And I stick to my theory that peak ULEZ unpopularity is in the next month, and the reality will be better received than the anticipation.)
But I’d also say that Labour tactics on this issue have been hamfisted.
Man played the very long game...
The LDs picked a crap candidate, and are now stuck with a third-ranker in what has probably become one of their safer seats.
They really need to get some better talent into the Commons.
ULEZ inside the ring road is one thing.
ULEZ inside the M25 is another thing altogether.
Wikipedia is not altogether convincing on ULEZ’s actual impact.
Lab 13,470
Green 893
Fox 714
LD 526
SDP 248
(As are the Fox voters, so perhaps they cancel each other out).
In a lot of cases, probably yes.
Yes, not a bad result.....
That's a choice.
Lab 1.01
Con 8+
But I fear that LD is starting to resemble a party for grumpy Karens, a not notably liberal demographic.
LD 21,187
Con 10,179
Green 3,944
Reform UK 1,303
Lab 1,009
Its a bit like how Andy Burnham attempted to implement a scheme for the entirety of Greater Manchester based upon the 'success' of schemes in London and the idea of having 'consistency' across the whole of Greater Manchester.
As if the rural outskirts of Wigan require the same policies of inner London or inner Manchester City Centre.
Bonkers.
Takes the number of women MPs to 226 = 35% (just under).
FPTP (which I think I still want to defend) is kind of choking off oxygen to the brains of all the major parties.
But the FPTP game is about getting the votes you need in the places you need them. For Labour, that isn't Somerton and Frome.
Unless you're a Somerset Socialist, the fewer votes Labour get there, the better.
To be falling fifth in a by-election you're not competitive in, while winning a thumping victory in one you are competitive in, is one thing.
To be doing so in the one you're not competitive in, while losing the one you should be competitive in, is something else entirely.
I still think Labour will win a majority in the next election, but its because people have no love for today's Tories or Sunak, Hunt etc - not because of any great admiration for Labour, SKS etc
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66259277
No comment from Nigel Farage on ordinary people losing bank branches.
It's a stark reminder that you can't just look at the majority last time and apply national swing. We all do it, because it's about all we can do, but it doesn't work like that. For now, fringe London is receptive to the Conservative message in a way that other places aren't. But there's not much of it.
What we really need is electoral reform.
One good thing about US election nights is you don't seem to have panels of politicians in the studio, at least when I've watched CNN and Fox.
Thanks for the tip @HYUFD - earned me a good dinner!
When the hell is Selby declaring?
Cryptic comment, maybe.
That's democracy.