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The LDs now a 99% betting chance in Somerton & Frome – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited July 2023
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I do find the concern about the colour of someones skin (or gender) in a work of fiction to be a strange concept. I think one of the best versions of David Copperfield I have ever seen was the 2019 version with Dev Patel. Just brilliant because all you could see was the quality of the acting.

    It does worry me that we have this move towards claiming that minority characters can only be played by someone from that minority. It seems to undermine the whole point of acting.

    Snow White not being very very white does seem a tad egregious. In the latest movie she is kinda Hispanic and dusky

    The whole point of the fairy tale is that she has snowy white skin. Hence her name

    I’ve no problem with casting anyone as anyone, within reason, but when it actually destroys the basic premise of the story: then yes. I have a problem.
    It's ironic because the Hispanic star, Rachel Zegler, rose to fame playing Maria in the Spielberg remake of West Side Story, where she took on the role (a Puerto Rican) that had been played by Natalie Wood, a white actress, in the original film. So perhaps this is some kind of payback.
    I wonder whether this will cause the same furore as when Disney remade the Little Mermaid with a black actor, Halle Bailey, in the title role - when everyone knows that mermaids are white!
    I think the Halle Bailey Mermaid is fine. But I do get the point Leon is making about a character called 'Snow White' because of a specific characteristic but who then... wasn't.

    Not that it is really worth falling out over :)
    It's just her name though, it's not like she's Othello and her racial background is key to the whole story. The point is that she is young and beautiful and this angers her stepmother who is growing old - and the story dates from a time where having very fair skin was synonymous with beauty - which isn't really the case for Western beauty standards these days. Rachel Zegler is certainly very beautiful in a youthful and innocent kind of way, so I think it is decent casting.
    But the reason she is called Snow White is coz her skin is white as snow. It’s not a frigging metaphor, it’s the basis of the story

    From the original Grimms’ Fairy Tale


    “a queen sat at her window working, and her embroidery-frame was of ebony. And as she worked, gazing at times out on the snow, she pricked her finger, and there fell from it three drops of blood on the snow. And when she saw how bright and red it looked, she said to herself, "Oh that I had a child as white as snow, as red as blood, and as black as the wood of the embroidery frame!" Not very long after she had a daughter, with a skin as white as snow, lips as red as blood, and hair as black as ebony, and she was named Snow-white.”

    I mean, that’s that. The Queen didn’t wish for a “beautiful Latinx daughter with a pure heart which could be unfairly termed ‘white’ in a racialised society’

    She asked for a child as white as snow

    Not really a lot of wriggle room there. The movie will likely bomb like so many recent Woke Disney efforts
    It might, but not for that reason I would think.

    Though at risk of losing liberal cred I've always taken the position that casting decisions really should be race blind unless there is a specific reason of character or story that means there is a significance to it - eg, if you want a reaslitic feeling historical film Benedict Cumberbatch playing Shaka Zulu would probably be an unnecessary distraction, whereas who gives a crap whether an alien Time Lord is white, black, female or any mixture of anything (so long as they are British, naturally), or if a fish person is any skin colour whatsoever? If a character's appearance is pretty specific and you decide to change that, for what reason and could you just do your own thing entirely? So I kind of get a moan about this one, given the reverse would be pilloried.
    These movies bomb because Hollywood is now heavily dependant on Chinese and other global audiences to make really major profits, and these audiences object to Wokeness big time

    It is one of the reasons we won’t see a black James Bond
    I seem to recall a few people at least complaining that the lady playing Jasmine in Aladdin was not middle eastern, and had a very good new song in it about people trying to keep women silent, and that one did very well, but it's not really the same thing I suppose.

    Elba would have been great. They probably want a younger actor now though.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,869

    Has it been confirmed Johnson put Farage forward for a knighthood which was turned down by the committee ?

    WTF? Seriously?
    Seems so - madness if true
    Which bit?

    That there was pressure to give Farage some sort of bauble? (I mean, I think he is ghastly, but he was a significant figure in the genesis of Johnson's defining policy. No worse than some of Johnson's life peers.)

    That Johnson wanted to give him said bauble? (Again, look at Johnson's honours lists.)

    That the blob turned him down? (I don't know, none of us know, but perhaps the spooks know something that makes him unsuitable for an honour. It wouldn't be a shock, exactly.)

    I don't think Charles would relish knighting him given his 'stupid' remarks about the suitcase of cash.
    Now you've got me wondering...

    What was the most personally awkward honouring that a monarch has had to be involved in? Of a "they have to be given something because of X but it's truly embarassing to put Her Maj through it" sort. (Presumably it gets delegated to some unfavoured junior royal instead.)
    I thought it was only Charles who knighted people in lieu of the Queen. Did Princess Anne do it too?

    I imagine Prince William might get shifts soon, but I could see Charles holding out against a Farage knighthood, and the bottom line is you have to do what the gaffer says sometimes, constitutional monarch or no constitutional monarch.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 891
    Sky: Somerton & Frome result expected 0330
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Sky: Somerton & Frome result expected 0330

    Irritating time - bit too late to stay up for, not late enough to get up early for.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Sky: Somerton & Frome result expected 0330

    Too late on a school night. Something to wake up to.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Leon said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    Well what you said was fairly ridiculous

    Slavery was a barbaric crime on a global scale and the Middle Passage was a heinous part of it

    But the USA has a large black population because millions of African slaves in the USA had children who had children who were then freed and who are now full fledged citizens of the USA

    A Jew being chuffed to Auschwitz had about a 1 in 10,000 chance of surviving to have children. They were being sent there explicitly to die, and die horribly, en masse. A few who were even unluckier got to become victims of the some of the cruellest experiments in the history of human science, an even smaller number got picked for slave labour and somehow made it to the end

    There are vanishingly few descendants of the 1.5m Jews (and others) who went to Auchswitz. They all died, as intended by the Nazis. Your statement was fatuous
    Really? How much fun do you think it is being a poor black (which is virtually every black) in contemporary USA? "Fully fledged citizen" my arse. I would be inclined to account the existing US black population as aggravating rather than mitigating the offence. But you do you. Gammon gonna gammon.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Just had a very confident email from Sir Ed
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,750
    kle4 said:

    Sky: Somerton & Frome result expected 0330

    Irritating time - bit too late to stay up for, not late enough to get up early for.
    Failed tourism campaigns #214:

    Somerton & Frome: too late to stay up for, not late enough to get up early for!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited July 2023
    kle4 said:

    Evening all, "Sir Nigel Farage" would sum up the state of utterly backward Ruritanian stupidity that Britain has got itself into.

    So give the man a gong, I say ; you need to acknowledge you have a problem first, if you want to deal with it.

    As the saying goes there is little honour when it comes to honours. There's some horrible people with them. Plus you can pretty much purchase one easy enough.

    Farage's biggest problems to getting one are a) he is now far more irrelevant than he was (The Tories will likely lose regardless of what Reform do), and b) he is so desperately needy about getting an honour through his media allies and proxies moaning about it that it'd be almost embarrassing to given him one now.
    Oh I agree, there's no end of disreputable honours recipients. A complete clearout and shake-up should be near the top of Starmer's list of priorities.

    The reason I think Farage's honour would be so particularly fitting, though, is because of the such notably great amount of damage he's done to the country, however. The knighting of such an obviously damaging reprobate can sum up the problem and make it easier to reform.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I do find the concern about the colour of someones skin (or gender) in a work of fiction to be a strange concept. I think one of the best versions of David Copperfield I have ever seen was the 2019 version with Dev Patel. Just brilliant because all you could see was the quality of the acting.

    It does worry me that we have this move towards claiming that minority characters can only be played by someone from that minority. It seems to undermine the whole point of acting.

    Snow White not being very very white does seem a tad egregious. In the latest movie she is kinda Hispanic and dusky

    The whole point of the fairy tale is that she has snowy white skin. Hence her name

    I’ve no problem with casting anyone as anyone, within reason, but when it actually destroys the basic premise of the story: then yes. I have a problem.
    It's ironic because the Hispanic star, Rachel Zegler, rose to fame playing Maria in the Spielberg remake of West Side Story, where she took on the role (a Puerto Rican) that had been played by Natalie Wood, a white actress, in the original film. So perhaps this is some kind of payback.
    I wonder whether this will cause the same furore as when Disney remade the Little Mermaid with a black actor, Halle Bailey, in the title role - when everyone knows that mermaids are white!
    I think the Halle Bailey Mermaid is fine. But I do get the point Leon is making about a character called 'Snow White' because of a specific characteristic but who then... wasn't.

    Not that it is really worth falling out over :)
    First time I have ever heard anyone saw that "Snow White" was called that because of her lily-white skin color.

    Stupidly, always assumed it was because she was pure at heart.
    It’s literally the first paragraph of the Grimm Brothers’ story.
    IT WAS the middle of winter, and the snow-flakes were falling like feathers from the sky, and a Queen sat at her window working, and her embroidery-frame was of ebony. And as she worked, gazing at times out on the snow, she pricked her finger, and there fell from it three drops of blood on the snow. And when she saw how bright and red it looked, she said to herself, “Oh that I had a child as white as snow, as red as blood, and as black as the wood of the embroidery frame!” Not very long after she had a daughter, with a skin as white as snow, lips as red as blood, and hair as black as ebony, and she was named Snow-white. And when she was born the Queen died...
    Thanks for that! I stand corrected - sadly NOT for the first time . . . today . . .

    Apologies (if any desired) to Leon. Should have gone to the source myself.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,947

    Has it been confirmed Johnson put Farage forward for a knighthood which was turned down by the committee ?

    WTF? Seriously?
    Seems so - madness if true
    Which bit?

    That there was pressure to give Farage some sort of bauble? (I mean, I think he is ghastly, but he was a significant figure in the genesis of Johnson's defining policy. No worse than some of Johnson's life peers.)

    That Johnson wanted to give him said bauble? (Again, look at Johnson's honours lists.)

    That the blob turned him down? (I don't know, none of us know, but perhaps the spooks know something that makes him unsuitable for an honour. It wouldn't be a shock, exactly.)

    I think the whole honours system stinks. I would restrict honours to gallantry and voluntary service and I would not distinguish between the recipients status in life either eg MBE to lollipop lady but Knighthood if CEO or MP is just wrong. Many of these just seem to get them for hanging around for a few decades or cutting the PMs hair. Also not a fan of the Lords as currently made up.

    Having said all of that if you are going to do it as we currently do, it is difficult to dispute Nigel Farage has had a bigger impact in politics than nearly anyone else over the last few decades, so if you must hand out pointless baubles he certainly deserves one more than most.

    It was hard to say that because as far as I am concerned he has done so much harm, but one needs to exclude ones personal views in these matters.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Miklosvar said:

    Leon said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    Well what you said was fairly ridiculous

    Slavery was a barbaric crime on a global scale and the Middle Passage was a heinous part of it

    But the USA has a large black population because millions of African slaves in the USA had children who had children who were then freed and who are now full fledged citizens of the USA

    A Jew being chuffed to Auschwitz had about a 1 in 10,000 chance of surviving to have children. They were being sent there explicitly to die, and die horribly, en masse. A few who were even unluckier got to become victims of the some of the cruellest experiments in the history of human science, an even smaller number got picked for slave labour and somehow made it to the end

    There are vanishingly few descendants of the 1.5m Jews (and others) who went to Auchswitz. They all died, as intended by the Nazis. Your statement was fatuous
    Really? How much fun do you think it is being a poor black (which is virtually every black) in contemporary USA? "Fully fledged citizen" my arse. I would be inclined to account the existing US black population as aggravating rather than mitigating the offence. But you do you. Gammon gonna gammon.
    It’s really not gammoning to point out that the evil of slavery - a tremendous epochal evil - is nonetheless not quite on the satanic scale as the deliberate extermination of millions of people through industrial usage of lethal gas and mass shooting, without any hope of survival whatsoever

    Slaves in America generally survived, their owners wanted them to live work and breed. Jews in auschwitz didn’t survive: the Nazis wanted them dead ASAP
  • Smart51Smart51 Posts: 63
    Tabman said:

    Just had a very confident email from Sir Ed

    You don't send out confident emails before the count unless you are certain your majority is massive.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,477
    Are we really arguing which was worse, slavery or the Holocaust?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Tories sliding out towards 10 in Ulez-X-Rated Uxbridge.

    Twelve quid I’ll never get back.

    One hopes @HYUFD didn’t stick the mortgage on them.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Cookie said:

    I'm watching this horrible woke kids program where they've regendered the lead role and added a rasta just to be PC. It's a terrible sign of modernity in this leftie do-gooder world.

    No, hang on, it's Maid Marion and Her Merry Men from 1989.

    In all honesty, that was my initial suspicion when I first saw it.
    But the thing is, it was good.
    You can get away with a lot if your product is actually good. Nowadays, mostly they forget that bit (see Women Ghostbusters (can't remember the real name)).
    Everybody now: It's pancake day, it's pancake day, it's p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-p-pancake day...
    The women ghostbusters was ace. Really well done. Do not understand the hostility towards it.
    Because it was NOT funny? Which is problematic for an (alleged) comedy?
    The original film is actually shit too, as anyone who has watched it as an adult will know. Of course watching it as a kid when it came out I loved it.
    Disagree, seeing as how I was an adult when I first saw it, and still think it's funny.

    BTT that "anyone who has watched it as an adult will know" is pretty juvenile IMHO.
    Eh? I just meant if you have seen it as an adult rather than simply remembered it from childhood. I had fond memories of it then watched it recently and it just struck me as lame. The humour is laboured, the special effects have really dated, and the writing is lazy and predictable. Dan Ackroyd is far better in the Blues Brothers, and Bill Murray is far better in Groundhog Day.
    NOT challenging your opinion on original Ghost Busters movie.

    AM challenging your assertion, that anyone watching it as an adult knows it's shit.

    Cause it AIN'T that AND because I am an adult. Chronologically anyway!
    The remake was funny in places. The problem was, IMO, that it was not as *charming* as the original. I have watched the original Ghostbusters a fair few times over the years, and it still entertains, despite my knowing the jokes, because I feel like it has a certain charm. I've watched the remake once, and enjoyed it, but don't feel like watching it again.

    TL;DR. I enjoyed the remake, but if I had a spare hour and a half, I'd watch the original. And that's what it is competing against.
    Your point re: charm is super-cogent. Especially re: repeat appeal of this flick AND many other artistic productions?

    For example, perhaps "Thelma and Louise" has it (first example coming to my fool head) but female GB doesn't?
    I love the original Ghostbusters, and I didn't see it as a young child - though I had cartoons of it and saw the kids TV series round my friends house. It's a good action comedy with an impeccable cast - they may or may not have done better films as individuals - are they supposed to stop making films after that?
    Part of what makes original GB successful/charming is the rather wide diversity of the characters and personalities portrayed/portraying.

    From Bill Murray's impish rogue to Harold Ramis's scholarly nerd to Dan Akroyd's man-child to Annie Potts girl-Friday to Sigourney Weaver's baffled beauty to Rick Moranis's hopeful beast to William Atherton's obnoxious bureaucrat to Ernie Hudson's every-man.
    Murray and Akroyd make that movie. Both at their comedic peak. They turned what could’ve been a bit of fun into something memorably clever and witty

    Ably supported, as you say, by an excellent wider cast
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited July 2023
    Time for the byelection swingometer.

    Will be interesting, I think. Get out the late night tea-cups.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Miklosvar said:

    Leon said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    Well what you said was fairly ridiculous

    Slavery was a barbaric crime on a global scale and the Middle Passage was a heinous part of it

    But the USA has a large black population because millions of African slaves in the USA had children who had children who were then freed and who are now full fledged citizens of the USA

    A Jew being chuffed to Auschwitz had about a 1 in 10,000 chance of surviving to have children. They were being sent there explicitly to die, and die horribly, en masse. A few who were even unluckier got to become victims of the some of the cruellest experiments in the history of human science, an even smaller number got picked for slave labour and somehow made it to the end

    There are vanishingly few descendants of the 1.5m Jews (and others) who went to Auchswitz. They all died, as intended by the Nazis. Your statement was fatuous
    Really? How much fun do you think it is being a poor black (which is virtually every black) in contemporary USA? "Fully fledged citizen" my arse. I would be inclined to account the existing US black population as aggravating rather than mitigating the offence. But you do you. Gammon gonna gammon.
    Believe you are seriously under-estimating the American Black middle class. Which does exist, and which has been growing (albeit with dips in the road) and still is growing.

    Certainly beyond what Booker T Washington called "talented tenth" of late 19th century US.

    BTW and FYI, years ago my parents made a point, when traveling across the South, of staying at a small motel they liked, owned and operated by a Black couple, in Tuskegee, Alabama.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    dixiedean said:

    Are we really arguing which was worse, slavery or the Holocaust?

    it seems so. @Miklosvar started it

    I agree it is an unedifying debate. But if it must be had, I would say the Holocaust was clearly even more evil than the Middle Passage

    You could argue that Islamic slavery, which castrated millions of black males, WAS as bad as the Holocaust, perhaps: as it extinguished all hope of life for the future
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,640
    Smart51 said:

    Tabman said:

    Just had a very confident email from Sir Ed

    You don't send out confident emails before the count unless you are certain your majority is massive.
    Ed will have his special by election win stunt lined up for tomorrow.

    Going to Frome with a broom to say 'we swept CON from Somerton'.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,947
    Smart51 said:

    Tabman said:

    Just had a very confident email from Sir Ed

    You don't send out confident emails before the count unless you are certain your majority is massive.
    Yep got it as well.

    According to the news they are claiming they knocked on 15,000 doors today. The only doors they are knocking on today are for knocking up. Quite a few of those houses will have multiple voters voting the same way and there will be others not identified. Obviously some of those will be misidentified (not many) and some won't vote (although I don't fancy being a non voter if you are on their knocking up list), but I still think (wet finger in air) that sounds very healthy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Smart51 said:

    Tabman said:

    Just had a very confident email from Sir Ed

    You don't send out confident emails before the count unless you are certain your majority is massive.
    I think it was Linekar once covering an England - Lichtenstein match (interesting only because we share the same anthem melody) who said 'There are no easy games in football...except this one' (or words to that effect).

    Likewise, there are no certainties in by-elections, especially when it comes to gaining rather than holding...but it's as close to a certainty as you can reasonably get.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Tories sliding out towards 10 in Ulez-X-Rated Uxbridge.

    Twelve quid I’ll never get back.

    One hopes @HYUFD didn’t stick the mortgage on them.

    Get ready for the reverse ferret and goalpost shift
    It stands to be one of the worst long-running tips in PB history. MrEd’s GOP to win Virginia tip was utter shit, but it was at least short lived.

    That said, I hope HY comes through. Will earn me a decent dinner.




    (I suspect I’ll go hungry)



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited July 2023
    I'm not that far from Frome really and was surprised to bump into a few LD activists I know, not on election duty, would have expected every single member from nearby to be flooding across.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,263
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    Not quite, as around 15% survived. But you’re not wrong in essence.

    But you are wrong about the slavery comparison - on the sugar plantations, the slaves were worked to death, within something like seven years. The motivation was greed rather than race hate, but the effects were not greatly different.

  • Smart51 said:

    Tabman said:

    Just had a very confident email from Sir Ed

    You don't send out confident emails before the count unless you are certain your majority is massive.
    Christine Jardine on Newsnight, they've clearly won big in Somerset, she wasn't even playing down expectations.
  • PeckPeck Posts: 517
    EPG said:

    Will it be:

    Somerset and DOOM
    Sell-(shares in the Tory Party)-by and Angsty
    Cluster-F-Uxbridge

    For the Tories??

    *yes this isn't one of my more sparkling posts.

    I made up "Fuxbridge" decades ago! I also came up with Lickenham, Dickmansworth...

    EDIT: Ooops! Wrong forum :blush:
    What next, Penistone?
    Cockermouth? Maidenhead? Anyone who enjoys this kind of humour who doesn't already know the following two should look them up: 1. What's "Finsbury Park" backwards? 2. What's "12 months" in Estonian?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Tories now 11.5 in Uxbridge, where the fuming Ulez rage is silent but deadly.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Liberals won by a street in Frome.

    1.01
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,039
    For Miklosvar (and perhaps others):

    "The median household income for Black U.S. households in 2021 is $46,400, which means half of households headed by a Black person earn more than that and half earn less.

    Broader analysis shows that 52% of Black U.S. households earn less than $50,000, while 48% make $50,000 or more. Three-in-ten Black households (31%) make $75,000 or more, including 20% that make $100,000 or more."
    source: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/fact-sheet/facts-about-the-us-black-population/#:~:text=‣-,All Black,48% make $50,000 or more.

    Reminder: The in-kind benefits poor people receive in the United States, notably Medicare and food stamps, are usually not counted in tallies of income. Nor is the EITC.

    By the way, a majority of American blacks now live in suburbs.

    (This appears to be the roughly comparable statistic for the UK:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2022#:~:text=Main points,(ONS) Household Finances Survey. )

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    U

    L

    E

    Z
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468
    kle4 said:

    Sky: Somerton & Frome result expected 0330

    Irritating time - bit too late to stay up for, not late enough to get up early for.
    Being a gentleman of a certain age I won't be staying up, I'll just check the results when I go for my 2nd pee of the night

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1682126798530781184

    But S+F is the boring one, isn't it? Routine Lib Dem spectacular triumph. Any word on the other two?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited July 2023

    U

    L

    E

    Z

    For you, Les, the war is over.

    The Ulez will be continued.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Smart51 said:

    Tabman said:

    Just had a very confident email from Sir Ed

    You don't send out confident emails before the count unless you are certain your majority is massive.
    Christine Jardine on Newsnight, they've clearly won big in Somerset, she wasn't even playing down expectations.
    The LD BE machine knows how to get it's vote out and knows how to count it all prior to the election.
    Jardine giving up the "if" at the end of the interview there. Very clear LD win is huge.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Leon said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

    I read Bloodlands a couple of years ago. Unremitting bleak. And a reminder of Ukraine's geographical tragedy too (1914-18, 1932-4, 1941-5, 2014-?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    U

    L

    E

    Z

    Is that the new cry of the Martians in the War of the Worlds sequel?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Pulpstar said:

    Tories sliding out towards 10 in Ulez-X-Rated Uxbridge.

    Twelve quid I’ll never get back.

    One hopes @HYUFD didn’t stick the mortgage on them.

    Get ready for the reverse ferret and goalpost shift
    It stands to be one of the worst long-running tips in PB history. MrEd’s GOP to win Virginia tip was utter shit, but it was at least short lived.

    That said, I hope HY comes through. Will earn me a decent dinner.




    (I suspect I’ll go hungry)



    You'd sell your country for a (Rishi deal) meal?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    Not quite, as around 15% survived. But you’re not wrong in essence.

    But you are wrong about the slavery comparison - on the sugar plantations, the slaves were worked to death, within something like seven years. The motivation was greed rather than race hate, but the effects were not greatly different.

    i guess it depends where you ended up. On a sugar plantation, true horror, on a cotton plantation, they wanted you to live and breed, like livestock, so it was horrific, but there was hope, of a slender variety

    I still believe the deliberate extermination of an entire race - a genocide - should be treated as the greater evil

    Given that I am ten miles from Ukraine, where Putin is re-enacting elements of the Holocaust, it is all a bit close to home, so I might go and watch The Bear

    Good night to PB, let us pray for Stokes and Brook
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Pulpstar said:

    Tories sliding out towards 10 in Ulez-X-Rated Uxbridge.

    Twelve quid I’ll never get back.

    One hopes @HYUFD didn’t stick the mortgage on them.

    Get ready for the reverse ferret and goalpost shift
    It stands to be one of the worst long-running tips in PB history. MrEd’s GOP to win Virginia tip was utter shit, but it was at least short lived.

    That said, I hope HY comes through. Will earn me a decent dinner.




    (I suspect I’ll go hungry)



    You'd sell your country for a (Rishi deal) meal?

    No, but by-elections are meaningless really. And in any case, I’d rather lose my money in all honesty.

    Will be quite funny to see the Tories ship all three.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I do find the concern about the colour of someones skin (or gender) in a work of fiction to be a strange concept. I think one of the best versions of David Copperfield I have ever seen was the 2019 version with Dev Patel. Just brilliant because all you could see was the quality of the acting.

    It does worry me that we have this move towards claiming that minority characters can only be played by someone from that minority. It seems to undermine the whole point of acting.

    Snow White not being very very white does seem a tad egregious. In the latest movie she is kinda Hispanic and dusky

    The whole point of the fairy tale is that she has snowy white skin. Hence her name

    I’ve no problem with casting anyone as anyone, within reason, but when it actually destroys the basic premise of the story: then yes. I have a problem.
    It's ironic because the Hispanic star, Rachel Zegler, rose to fame playing Maria in the Spielberg remake of West Side Story, where she took on the role (a Puerto Rican) that had been played by Natalie Wood, a white actress, in the original film. So perhaps this is some kind of payback.
    I wonder whether this will cause the same furore as when Disney remade the Little Mermaid with a black actor, Halle Bailey, in the title role - when everyone knows that mermaids are white!
    I think the Halle Bailey Mermaid is fine. But I do get the point Leon is making about a character called 'Snow White' because of a specific characteristic but who then... wasn't.

    Not that it is really worth falling out over :)
    It's just her name though, it's not like she's Othello and her racial background is key to the whole story. The point is that she is young and beautiful and this angers her stepmother who is growing old - and the story dates from a time where having very fair skin was synonymous with beauty - which isn't really the case for Western beauty standards these days. Rachel Zegler is certainly very beautiful in a youthful and innocent kind of way, so I think it is decent casting.
    But the reason she is called Snow White is coz her skin is white as snow. It’s not a frigging metaphor, it’s the basis of the story

    From the original Grimms’ Fairy Tale


    “a queen sat at her window working, and her embroidery-frame was of ebony. And as she worked, gazing at times out on the snow, she pricked her finger, and there fell from it three drops of blood on the snow. And when she saw how bright and red it looked, she said to herself, "Oh that I had a child as white as snow, as red as blood, and as black as the wood of the embroidery frame!" Not very long after she had a daughter, with a skin as white as snow, lips as red as blood, and hair as black as ebony, and she was named Snow-white.”

    I mean, that’s that. The Queen didn’t wish for a “beautiful Latinx daughter with a pure heart which could be unfairly termed ‘white’ in a racialised society’

    She asked for a child as white as snow

    Not really a lot of wriggle room there. The movie will likely bomb like so many recent Woke Disney efforts
    It might, but not for that reason I would think.

    Though at risk of losing liberal cred I've always taken the position that casting decisions really should be race blind unless there is a specific reason of character or story that means there is a significance to it - eg, if you want a reaslitic feeling historical film Benedict Cumberbatch playing Shaka Zulu would probably be an unnecessary distraction, whereas who gives a crap whether an alien Time Lord is white, black, female or any mixture of anything (so long as they are British, naturally), or if a fish person is any skin colour whatsoever? If a character's appearance is pretty specific and you decide to change that, for what reason and could you just do your own thing entirely? So I kind of get a moan about this one, given the reverse would be pilloried.
    These movies bomb because Hollywood is now heavily dependant on Chinese and other global audiences to make really major profits, and these audiences object to Wokeness big time

    It is one of the reasons we won’t see a black James Bond

    It’s a shame as I think Idris Elba is made for the part. He has exactly the right mix of major masculinity, macho sexuality, with a hint of cruelty if needed. And he’s a fine actor (wasted in that Hijack crap)
    Fact-checking Idris Elba’s Hijack: from guns on planes to blackmailed pilots
    Aviation experts and kidnap negotiators weigh in on Idris Elba’s thrilling show about a hijacked plane from Dubai to London. Is it accurate?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/0/hijack-apple-tv-2023-idris-elba-ruth-sheen-fact-check/ (£££)
    or non-paywalled version on MSN
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/fact-checking-idris-elba-s-hijack-from-guns-on-planes-to-blackmailed-pilots/ar-AA1e7uFC

    As for Bond, Idris Elba is 50 so a bit long in the tooth to take over from 55yo Daniel Craig.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

    I read Bloodlands a couple of years ago. Unremitting bleak. And a reminder of Ukraine's geographical tragedy too (1914-18, 1932-4, 1941-5, 2014-?)
    It reminded me that part of the reason gas was brought in was the effect on Einsatzgruppen members, many of whom were effectively special constables. Alcohol abuse was prevalent. There's a good book on it, something like "Police Batallion 101" (a source in Snyder).
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,029
    Leon said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

    You might enjoy (well, 'enjoy') Dan Carlin's https://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-ghosts-ostfront-series 'Ghosts of the Ostfront". It's pretty hard going in places - especially the bits about it being 'better' in winter as you could drive over the frozen bodies rather than sink into them during summer.
  • PeckPeck Posts: 517
    edited July 2023
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we really arguing which was worse, slavery or the Holocaust?

    it seems so. @Miklosvar started it

    I agree it is an unedifying debate. But if it must be had, I would say the Holocaust was clearly even more evil than the Middle Passage

    You could argue that Islamic slavery, which castrated millions of black males, WAS as bad as the Holocaust, perhaps: as it extinguished all hope of life for the future
    Do you call slavery in the Americas Christian slavery?

    It's not necessary to ask which was worse, slavery or the Nazi mass slaughter, but it should be universally accepted that the term "crime against humanity" accurately characterises ALL slavery.

    No decent regime should allow towns to be named after slaveowners, or monuments to honour them, any more than they would name towns after Hitler or allow monuments to honour him.

    These crimes are in the same category even if the debate about which was worse is completely uninteresting.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    The Libs have won Frome easily.

    Still a little doubt over the others but markets suggest a decent shout for Labour.

    Time to sleep.

    Hope @HYUFD hedged.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Tories sliding out towards 10 in Ulez-X-Rated Uxbridge.

    Twelve quid I’ll never get back.

    One hopes @HYUFD didn’t stick the mortgage on them.

    Get ready for the reverse ferret and goalpost shift
    It stands to be one of the worst long-running tips in PB history. MrEd’s GOP to win Virginia tip was utter shit, but it was at least short lived.

    That said, I hope HY comes through. Will earn me a decent dinner.




    (I suspect I’ll go hungry)



    Not as bad as some on here who were saying the Democrats could win Alaska and South Carolina for the Senate.

    Suspect you won't get a dinner - looks like the Tories will get shafted in all three.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,215
    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

    I read Bloodlands a couple of years ago. Unremitting bleak. And a reminder of Ukraine's geographical tragedy too (1914-18, 1932-4, 1941-5, 2014-?)
    It reminded me that part of the reason gas was brought in was the effect on Einsatzgruppen members, many of whom were effectively special constables. Alcohol abuse was prevalent. There's a good book on it, something like "Police Batallion 101" (a source in Snyder).
    I read it a few weeks ago and recommended it here, so the PB source was probably me.

    Behind the bleakness I think it’s also an incredibly well judged book. It does the near impossible: corrects a number of misconceptions about the era and brings to the fore forgotten tragedies, without diminishing the importance of the central evils of the holocaust and the terror.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    @kitchencabinet

    Looks that way.

    We’ll see.

    Good night.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,215

    The Libs have won Frome easily.

    Still a little doubt over the others but markets suggest a decent shout for Labour.

    Time to sleep.

    Hope @HYUFD hedged.

    The Tories have managed expectations brilliantly though (except HYUFD). Is there any conceivable scenario where they will be considered to have underperformed expectations? Everyone seems to expect they’ll be thrashed in all 3. I’m pretty sure they won’t. Might lose all 3, but the swing’s the key thing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    kle4 said:

    Sky: Somerton & Frome result expected 0330

    Irritating time - bit too late to stay up for, not late enough to get up early for.
    Slacker!

    Mrs T - reputedly - got by with only 4-5 hours of sleep a night when she was PM.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    edited July 2023
    TimS said:

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

    I read Bloodlands a couple of years ago. Unremitting bleak. And a reminder of Ukraine's geographical tragedy too (1914-18, 1932-4, 1941-5, 2014-?)
    It reminded me that part of the reason gas was brought in was the effect on Einsatzgruppen members, many of whom were effectively special constables. Alcohol abuse was prevalent. There's a good book on it, something like "Police Batallion 101" (a source in Snyder).
    I read it a few weeks ago and recommended it here, so the PB source was probably me.

    Behind the bleakness I think it’s also an incredibly well judged book. It does the near impossible: corrects a number of misconceptions about the era and brings to the fore forgotten tragedies, without diminishing the importance of the central evils of the holocaust and the terror.
    If it was you, then thanks, I think. A brutal but compelling read. And remarkably apt for my current travels

    So many things stand out. One is the sheer satanic efficiency with which Stalin’s USSR could act, when needed. eg. Shifting entire populations - like the 100,000 Tatars of Crimea, sent to Siberia - in TWO DAYS

    It took quite a while for Hitler’s Germany to match the scale and speed, in some ways they never did, perhaps (hence their defeat). But they did “excel” themselves with the Jewish Holocaust. Even Stalin didn’t equal that

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,029
    edited July 2023

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    For you, Les, the war is over.

    The Ulez will be continued.
    Brexitania has always been at war with Ulezia. The chocolate rations are increased by 10% for only a 20% increase in price! Rejoice and praise big little ERGother,
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

    I read Bloodlands a couple of years ago. Unremitting bleak. And a reminder of Ukraine's geographical tragedy too (1914-18, 1932-4, 1941-5, 2014-?)
    It reminded me that part of the reason gas was brought in was the effect on Einsatzgruppen members, many of whom were effectively special constables. Alcohol abuse was prevalent. There's a good book on it, something like "Police Batallion 101" (a source in Snyder).
    I read it a few weeks ago and recommended it here, so the PB source was probably me.

    Behind the bleakness I think it’s also an incredibly well judged book. It does the near impossible: corrects a number of misconceptions about the era and brings to the fore forgotten tragedies, without diminishing the importance of the central evils of the holocaust and the terror.
    If it was you, then thanks, I think. A brutal but compelling read. And remarkably apt for my current travels

    So many things stand out. One is the sheer satanic efficiency with which Stalin’s USSR could act, when needed. eg. Shifting entire population - like the 100,000 Tatars of Crimea, sent to Siberia - in TWO DAYS

    It took quite a while for Hitler’s Germany to match the scale and speed, in some ways they never did, perhaps (hence their defeat). But they did “excel” themselves with the Jewish Holocaust. Even Stalin didn’t match that

    That's the interesting thing, when you consider that the Transports of the Holocaust were around 2000 people per day. One or two trains, when there must have been hundreds keeping the Ostfront logistics going.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    U

    L

    E

    Z

    Is that the new cry of the Martians in the War of the Worlds sequel?
    "Earthling, take me to your Leon!"
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    edited July 2023

    kle4 said:

    Sky: Somerton & Frome result expected 0330

    Irritating time - bit too late to stay up for, not late enough to get up early for.
    Being a gentleman of a certain age I won't be staying up, I'll just check the results when I go for my 2nd pee of the night

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1682126798530781184

    But S+F is the boring one, isn't it? Routine Lib Dem spectacular triumph. Any word on the other two?
    Labour and Conservatives both playing things down according to the Mirror.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/triple-election-live-voters-head-30517099
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Very clear Selby is the only BE in play. As I've been saying for ages
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Am I the second PBer to spend their night in Lewisham Hospital A&e in the last week?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,215
    Lib Dem expectation management from Ed

    We’re going to need a bigger tractor

    https://twitter.com/edwardjdavey/status/1682150926847451137?s=46
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,263
    TimS said:

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

    I read Bloodlands a couple of years ago. Unremitting bleak. And a reminder of Ukraine's geographical tragedy too (1914-18, 1932-4, 1941-5, 2014-?)
    It reminded me that part of the reason gas was brought in was the effect on Einsatzgruppen members, many of whom were effectively special constables. Alcohol abuse was prevalent. There's a good book on it, something like "Police Batallion 101" (a source in Snyder).
    I read it a few weeks ago and recommended it here, so the PB source was probably me.

    Behind the bleakness I think it’s also an incredibly well judged book. It does the near impossible: corrects a number of misconceptions about the era and brings to the fore forgotten tragedies, without diminishing the importance of the central evils of the holocaust and the terror.
    I think I probably recommended it originally, but that was quite some time back.
    It’s both horrifying and fascinating.
    The most remarkable lesson to me was how the state, even in its more malign forms, served as some form of protection. Where state institutions were destroyed sequentially by Stalin, and then the Nazis, the Holocaust was at its most absolute.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    TimS said:

    The Libs have won Frome easily.

    Still a little doubt over the others but markets suggest a decent shout for Labour.

    Time to sleep.

    Hope @HYUFD hedged.

    The Tories have managed expectations brilliantly though (except HYUFD). Is there any conceivable scenario where they will be considered to have underperformed expectations? Everyone seems to expect they’ll be thrashed in all 3. I’m pretty sure they won’t. Might lose all 3, but the swing’s the key thing.
    Well they are sitting on a majority of 20,000 in Selby. Would be quite something to lose that one!
  • vinovino Posts: 171
    Tabman said:

    Just had a very confident email from Sir Ed

    Hi - still in WB?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Tabman said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Florida…

    New Florida teaching standards say African Americans received some ‘personal benefit’ from slavery
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/20/florida-black-history-teaching-standards-00107067

    Wasn't there an HMG sponsored report that suggesting accentuating the positives for descendants of Carribean slaves?
    "Relive your ancestors' thrilling journey across the Atlantic when we illegally deport you!"
    I have genuinely outraged gammons on the internet by saying that a slave awaiting the middle passage at a barracoon, was in no better a position than a jew awaiting a train to auschwitz. The thinking is: one gets you a transatlantic cruise on a square rigged three master on the classic downwind trade wind route, to a Caribbean island with a job for life, accommodation included, and the other one gets you to auschwitz.
    More correctly, Auschwitz was a complex of camps of which some provided the selected inmates with jobs for life, or such was the intention. Primo Levi was such an inmate. Edit: I'm sure you know that - but many people won't.
    This is absolute shite. Unless you are making some footling juvenile point about auschwitz 1 and 2 (Birkenau)


    The vast vast majority of victims went straight to Auschwitz 2 - Birkenau - where they were immediately gassed on arrival. That was the whole design. A lucky few got chosen for work but most of them ended up gassed anyway. As the Nazis closed the camp they death marched the survivors away and they died as well

    Real live Auschwitz survivors are absolute rarities
    You're both correct/wrong. Monowitz / BUNA was a Labour camp. End result the same; job for life correct, but life was limited to months.
    I’ve just finished “Bloodlands” by Snyder, about the 20th century horrors of this whole slice of Eastern European where I find myself tonight, on the Polish Ukrainian border

    (Thanks to the PB-er the recommended it, possibly @TOPPING)

    It brings home the amazingness that Poland has survived at all. It also has a whole chapter devoted to Auschwitz. OMG. It never ceases to shock and to numb

    But also Chelmno, Belzec, Treblinka

    More Jews actually died from shooting than gassing

    They were stripped naked and told to lie in great death pits, on top of the other corpses, and then shot. Or they were brought into rooms and shot through the head and then dead dragged out at great speed. One guy did the shooting. It is thought some of these men may have personally shot tens of thousands of people in a few months, at point blank range, men women and children

    imagine being one of those guys. You have PERSONALLY murdered 20,000 people, there is no way of distancing yourself. You did it. With your gun. You saw the victim, a few feet away from you

    The mind blanks at the horror

    I read Bloodlands a couple of years ago. Unremitting bleak. And a reminder of Ukraine's geographical tragedy too (1914-18, 1932-4, 1941-5, 2014-?)
    It reminded me that part of the reason gas was brought in was the effect on Einsatzgruppen members, many of whom were effectively special constables. Alcohol abuse was prevalent. There's a good book on it, something like "Police Batallion 101" (a source in Snyder).
    I read it a few weeks ago and recommended it here, so the PB source was probably me.

    Behind the bleakness I think it’s also an incredibly well judged book. It does the near impossible: corrects a number of misconceptions about the era and brings to the fore forgotten tragedies, without diminishing the importance of the central evils of the holocaust and the terror.
    If it was you, then thanks, I think. A brutal but compelling read. And remarkably apt for my current travels

    So many things stand out. One is the sheer satanic efficiency with which Stalin’s USSR could act, when needed. eg. Shifting entire populations - like the 100,000 Tatars of Crimea, sent to Siberia - in TWO DAYS

    It took quite a while for Hitler’s Germany to match the scale and speed, in some ways they never did, perhaps (hence their defeat). But they did “excel” themselves with the Jewish Holocaust. Even Stalin didn’t equal that

    Is it true what they say - that you haven't Lvived until you see Lvov?

    Don't know for sure, but reckon it's THE place to get a delux Lemburger . . . whatever that is . . .
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    edited July 2023

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    Z

    "You Lez if you want to... This Lady's not for Lezzing"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    TimS said:

    Lib Dem expectation management from Ed

    We’re going to need a bigger tractor

    https://twitter.com/edwardjdavey/status/1682150926847451137?s=46

    Bigger Taxi? :lol:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Good night
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited July 2023

    TimS said:

    The Libs have won Frome easily.

    Still a little doubt over the others but markets suggest a decent shout for Labour.

    Time to sleep.

    Hope @HYUFD hedged.

    The Tories have managed expectations brilliantly though (except HYUFD). Is there any conceivable scenario where they will be considered to have underperformed expectations? Everyone seems to expect they’ll be thrashed in all 3. I’m pretty sure they won’t. Might lose all 3, but the swing’s the key thing.
    Well they are sitting on a majority of 20,000 in Selby. Would be quite something to lose that one!
    Lost a majority of 24000 in Tiverton and 22000 in North Shropshire, and those were before things really went to shit. Selby is only marginally more than Somerton.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Surely this is by any stretch a disaster for the Tories? KS is on the edge of beating Tony Blair?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    The Libs have won Frome easily.

    Still a little doubt over the others but markets suggest a decent shout for Labour.

    Time to sleep.

    Hope @HYUFD hedged.

    The Tories have managed expectations brilliantly though (except HYUFD). Is there any conceivable scenario where they will be considered to have underperformed expectations? Everyone seems to expect they’ll be thrashed in all 3. I’m pretty sure they won’t. Might lose all 3, but the swing’s the key thing.
    Well they are sitting on a majority of 20,000 in Selby. Would be quite something to lose that one!
    Lost a majority of 24000 in Tiverton and 22000 in North Shropshire, and those were before things really went to shit.
    Yes but those were to the BE Specialist party aka Lib Dems. Labours BE performances have been much more modest
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,959
    Evening everyone. What time does the by-election special start?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    Andy_JS said:

    Evening everyone. What time does the by-election special start?

    00.05 I think
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Good night

    Ulezzzzzzzz
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a good selection of seats. Trad LD Con battleground seat, outer London and semi rural north Yorkshire.

    Just a pity we don't have 6 with Rutherglen, Mid Beds, Tamworth.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569

    Am I the second PBer to spend their night in Lewisham Hospital A&e in the last week?

    Sympathies - what has taken you there?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    The Libs have won Frome easily.

    Still a little doubt over the others but markets suggest a decent shout for Labour.

    Time to sleep.

    Hope @HYUFD hedged.

    The Tories have managed expectations brilliantly though (except HYUFD). Is there any conceivable scenario where they will be considered to have underperformed expectations? Everyone seems to expect they’ll be thrashed in all 3. I’m pretty sure they won’t. Might lose all 3, but the swing’s the key thing.
    Well they are sitting on a majority of 20,000 in Selby. Would be quite something to lose that one!
    Lost a majority of 24000 in Tiverton and 22000 in North Shropshire, and those were before things really went to shit.
    Yes but those were to the BE Specialist party aka Lib Dems. Labours BE performances have been much more modest
    True enough, which is why it is seen as at least in play for the Tories, since 20k should be hard.

    Not sure what the government could glean from holding on there though. The other two would still be a signal of a big big problem after all.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 891
    Andy_JS said:

    Evening everyone. What time does the by-election special start?

    BBC 0005, Sky midnight.

    FWIW I tend to find Sky better on UK election nights (if it's a GE I'll have one tab for BBC, one ITV, one Sky :))
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,959
    kle4 said:

    I'm not that far from Frome really and was surprised to bump into a few LD activists I know, not on election duty, would have expected every single member from nearby to be flooding across.

    I used to think Frome rhymed with foam.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,640
    LAB and LD supporters enjoy your wins tonight!

    I will be back tomorrow. For the cricket of course!

    GN all 👍
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,516
    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm not that far from Frome really and was surprised to bump into a few LD activists I know, not on election duty, would have expected every single member from nearby to be flooding across.

    I used to think Frome rhymed with foam.
    Does it not?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm not that far from Frome really and was surprised to bump into a few LD activists I know, not on election duty, would have expected every single member from nearby to be flooding across.

    I used to think Frome rhymed with foam.
    Apparently everyone does, but to those of within 25 miles it never crosses our minds that it would.
  • I think it is safe to say expectation management has left the building at LDHQ:

    https://twitter.com/willglloyd/status/1682147724873850880?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited July 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a good selection of seats. Trad LD Con battleground seat, outer London and semi rural north Yorkshire.

    Just a pity we don't have 6 with Rutherglen, Mid Beds, Tamworth.
    And we never got Leicester West either, which looked a prospect for awhile. Personally I think any conviction should be satisfactory for a recall petition.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,959
    Time for an election night spreadsheet?

    Declarations at GE2019, GE2017, GE2015.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit#gid=0

    Selby & Ainsty:
    2019: 0345
    2017: 0320
    2015: 0606

    Somerton & Frome:
    2019: 0516
    2017: 0246
    2015: 0537

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip:
    2019: 0340
    2017: 0248
    2015: 0430
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm not that far from Frome really and was surprised to bump into a few LD activists I know, not on election duty, would have expected every single member from nearby to be flooding across.

    I used to think Frome rhymed with foam.
    Does it not?
    Broom
    Room
    Groom
    Frome
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,959

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm not that far from Frome really and was surprised to bump into a few LD activists I know, not on election duty, would have expected every single member from nearby to be flooding across.

    I used to think Frome rhymed with foam.
    Does it not?
    No, it ought to be spelt "Froom".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,417
    kle4 said:

    U

    L

    E

    Z

    Is that the new cry of the Martians in the War of the Worlds sequel?
    No that was "ulla". You may be mistaking it for the cries in Rad Bradbury's The martian Chronicles. Which was also "ulla". Oh. Or possibly the Martians in Alan Moore's "League of Extraordinary Gentlemen". Which was also also "ulla". Oh fuck. :(
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:

    Sky: Somerton & Frome result expected 0330

    Irritating time - bit too late to stay up for, not late enough to get up early for.
    Slacker!

    Mrs T - reputedly - got by with only 4-5 hours of sleep a night when she was PM.
    Yes, but she had stuff to do - we've got no outcome for another 3-4 hours.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903

    Am I the second PBer to spend their night in Lewisham Hospital A&e in the last week?

    Sympathies - what has taken you there?
    Son, potential appendicitis. Meant to be driving to Cornwall in six hours... Hopefully I can follow the byelection action while I wait.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    U

    L

    E

    Z

    Is that the new cry of the Martians in the War of the Worlds sequel?
    No that was "ulla". You may be mistaking it for the cries in Rad Bradbury's The martian Chronicles. Which was also "ulla". Oh. Or possibly the Martians in Alan Moore's "League of Extraordinary Gentlemen". Which was also also "ulla". Oh fuck. :(
    I was merely speculating whether the Martians mixed it up a bit in Stephen Baxter's 'The Massacre of Mankind', which I own but have not got around to reading. Apparently he also did a sequel to The Time Machine.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,959
    Lib Dems claim victory in Somerton & Frome.

    Sky News.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,417
    Andy_JS said:

    Time for an election night spreadsheet?

    Declarations at GE2019, GE2017, GE2015.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit#gid=0

    Selby & Ainsty:
    2019: 0345
    2017: 0320
    2015: 0606

    Somerton & Frome:
    2019: 0516
    2017: 0246
    2015: 0537

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip:
    2019: 0340
    2017: 0248
    2015: 0430

    Oh, now you have a spreadsheet?

    :)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    Am I the second PBer to spend their night in Lewisham Hospital A&e in the last week?

    Good luck. My girlfriend did some of her training there...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Ben Walker pointing out that Labour has never overturned a 20,000+ Tory majority in any seat at a general or by-election ever.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a good selection of seats. Trad LD Con battleground seat, outer London and semi rural north Yorkshire.

    Just a pity we don't have 6 with Rutherglen, Mid Beds, Tamworth.
    And we never got Leicester West either, which looked a prospect for awhile. Personally I think any conviction should be satisfactory for a recall petition.
    When the Tamworth by-election eventually comes around, might it be followed by one in Walsall North?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Time for an election night spreadsheet?

    Declarations at GE2019, GE2017, GE2015.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit#gid=0

    Selby & Ainsty:
    2019: 0345
    2017: 0320
    2015: 0606

    Somerton & Frome:
    2019: 0516
    2017: 0246
    2015: 0537

    Uxbridge & South Ruislip:
    2019: 0340
    2017: 0248
    2015: 0430

    Oh, now you have a spreadsheet?

    :)
    If Andy doesn't have a spreadsheet for an occasion I get worried.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    Am I the second PBer to spend their night in Lewisham Hospital A&e in the last week?

    Sympathies - what has taken you there?
    Son, potential appendicitis. Meant to be driving to Cornwall in six hours... Hopefully I can follow the byelection action while I wait.
    Hope all is okay OLB. And thinking of you. Even when it is under control a sick child is always a worry for a parent.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Eabhal said:

    Am I the second PBer to spend their night in Lewisham Hospital A&e in the last week?

    Good luck. My girlfriend did some of her training there...
    I've had a birth (youngest) and an asthma attack (oldest) here before so I know the place well. I'll set up a crowdfunder for the parking charges later.
This discussion has been closed.