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Even Tory LEAVE voters don’t want Johnson back – politicalbetting.com
Even Tory LEAVE voters don’t want Johnson back – politicalbetting.com
Thanks to TSE for spotting this one – the past vote split on whether Johnson should try to return as an MP. For as can be seen 47% of GE2019 Tory voters who backed Leave say he shouldn’t with 43% saying he should. So a clear majority of those who had a view don’t want him back.
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CON: 42.7% (+6.5)
LAB: 32.9% (+7.5)
LDM: 10.5% (+1.5)
IND: 7.9% (-11.3)
RFM: 2.4% (New)
GRN: 2.4% (-7.7)
Yorks: 1.1% (New)
If Labour / LD / Green argue over who is in the driving seat to pick up some seats, the Tory will cling on.
Oh dear, how sad.
Never mind.
People made very clear that the allegations against Edwards needed to be investigated. I must assume that principle applies to these other people as well...?
Low turnout though, and like a lot of S Yorks seats Dinnington is an odd mix of a rough(ish, these days) ex pit village and a lot of quite posh hinterland. Recall too that this is Rotherham council - textbook example of a Labour fiefdom that was taken for granted, and then of course the shameful grooming scandal.
Another outtake is how Reform have basically no cut-through here in what has been a quite Ukippy area.
But certainly quite a cheering result for the Tories, whose lurch to statist nationalism probably goes down OK here.
While breezy Cameroonian liberalism isn’t really going to chime here, populist Johnsonism does.
All that being said, it’s still needs to be a Labour target. They still have a strong vote here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroperoxyl
Apparently you can… stabilise it at cryogenic temperatures. If you could make enough.
It would be an interesting experiment in the sense of Ignition!* interesting.
*a legendary book on the early days of research into rocket fuels. The experiments described are not so much “don’t try this at home” as “don’t try this in a remotely controlled bunker, in a desert area, while in a separate bunker. Several miles away.”
I recall the Tories didn't do very well in the May real votes.
(Metallic hydrogen is a form of compressed hydrogen that exhibits metallic properties. If it has been created, it has only been created in tiny portions. Metastable means it won't immediately change when pressure is released, and remains metallic for an unknown period. But the energy cost of creating the metallic hydrogen might be more than the metallic hydrogen can store. IANAE, AIUI etc.)
Its a little tedious after the first fortnight.
Note also while voters overall think Sunak has been a better PM than Johnson by 26% to 21%, 2019 Conservative voters think Johnson was a better PM than Sunak by 35% to 23%. Johnson also has the problem now he has stepped down as MP for Uxbridge he would have to get on the CCHQ approved candidates list to stand as a Tory candidate again and again and that may not happen with Rishi as leader. Corbyn of course blocked from being a Labour candidate by Starmer too and ready to stand as an Indepedent in Islington North
Bringing together this subject and the subject of the header, I’d forgotten about this episode:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-carrie-symonds-argument-womens-rights-domestic-violence-a8970391.html
At this point none of us know exactly what happened on Thursday night between our potential future prime minister and his partner, and we may never know. All I want to say on the specifics of that incident is that I hope Carrie Symonds is okay; I hope she wasn’t hurt, and I hope she didn’t feel threatened. In these circumstances, she deserves absolute respect and privacy.
I don’t remember anyone dropping this when the police said “nothing to see here.”
The fascinating bit is the two-faced nature of the BBC. On one hand they protect their vulnerable employee. On the other hand they are happy to report their own salacious gossip about him unprompted.
Meanwhile, Biden is mobilising reserves and posting them to Europe, in what’s clearly the start of implementing what was agreed at the NATO summit. To the untrained eye, it looks like a renewed determination to see this war won quickly in Ukraine’s favour.
https://www.markpack.org.uk/171016/council-by-election-results-scorecard-2023-2024/
https://www.markpack.org.uk/168592/council-by-election-results-scorecard/
and you get Conservatives doing badly but most of the gains going Lib Dem or Green.
Possible mechanism is that those parties win by throwing the kitchen sink at a single campaign and local by elections are brilliant for that. General elections much less so.
Possible application for the next GE is that Lib Dem and Green scores will be capped at the number of full on campaigns they can construct. Labour pick up the other swing seats by default on national swing.
What is known about the independent in Newham?
I don't recall much if any reference to Boris with regards to this incident. I've called him things like "liar" and "shagger", but "wife-beater" is only something I've used to describe his dad when Boris wanted to give him a gong.
We really need to try hard to maintain application of the law as being something that is equally applied regardless of who the person is. Nobody is talking about Boris because of Huw Edwards, but he has just committed Contempt of Court. Lawyers on Twitter already pointing out that "do you know who I am" is no defence, and people committing this kind of contempt usually go to jail.
So the argument concocted always alleges that the entire action - in this case the Public Enquiry into Covid set up by Boris Johnson - is politically biased against their guy - in this case Boris Johnson. So it is unreasonable to apply the law to him...
I suspect it’s now going to be a civil war, and a #MeToo moment for the industry, as has already been the case in the US.
Look at the war inside the newsroom at the BBC, for an idea of what’s coming. It’s clear that there’s at best resentment, and at worst hatred, between the ‘top talent’ and the rest of the department.
So long as they first report the actual news, getting the pervs and bullies out of their own industry is something we should all support.
The Tory party don't request that the BBC is hounded and GBeebies isn't, however I have no doubt when the one is pursued relentlessly and the other isn't, the Party grandees crack a wry smile.
As for "why", we know why. Tabloid media go into bat for their team hoping for favours. In the case of the Daily Mail, Dacre was after a peerage or to chair OFCOM. News International are battling with GBeebies for its new TalkTV outlet to finish second bottom on ratings and want to take the BBC down as hard as possible. That a lot of Tories especially Johnsonite Tories also want the same is entirely coincidental of course...
*Speaking of the media generally. No reference to Nigelb or Tlg86 or RP intended.
Economic large scale hydrogen production via electrolysis probably isn't that far off, particularly where electricity is very cheap (Middle East solar).
It will become really interesting when the same can be done efficiently for CO2, which is a bit further off (and also less thermodynamically efficient).
https://kananlab.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020NatComm.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jul/14/hugely-exciting-and-rare-neolithic-polishing-stone-found-in-dorset
Real Men make Chlorine Triflouride.
*Not the FSB range of scents
Indeed Labour in May outperformed their local by-election results by 2-3%, and the Tories underperformed similarly. There are analyses that their 9% NEV lead probably understates their national position at this point in the cycle.
And I think a lot of potential Labour voters have got sight of local alternatives in recent years due to the swing left and back to the centre. I was a pretty solid Labour LE voter until 2015 but haven't returned to the LE fold post-Corbyn. Won't affect my GE journey home.
I saw an old mate of mine last night. To the left, shall we say, and he was fuming that eg The Today Programme might as well be an arm of government.
Whereas from my right-leaning, civilised, thoughtful perspective I think the BBC leans left.
I dislike the fact that they always have to so maniacally strive for "balance" and "inclusivity" but I understand it also.
As they say if we're both convinced of our view then perhaps it is therefore doing something right.
The contentious issue about the Edwards affair was the Sun's dishonest reporting implying criminality.
I don't think very many were arguing that it shouldn't have been reported at all.
Edwards' alleged non criminal conduct is being examined by his employers, and I'm quite happy to leave it at that.
'When appeals are not even heard..
And *100%* of those that are heard are rejected..
And left-wingers are blocked en masses from selections...
Then pluralism, democracy & due process are dying in Starmer's Labour.'
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1679453208651939840?s=20
As mentioned a day or two ago, something on AI and the potential for election shenanigans in 2024:
https://medium.com/@rkilner/will-ai-and-politics-collide-2024-2600a9634297
I think something that makes that a bigger risk than it might've been is the polarisation (starker right now in the US than here) with more people holding entrenched views. Easier to believe your foe has been praising Satan if you already think he worships the Devil.
There's also the problem of feedstock - water is easy; getting bulk clean CO2 in industrial quantities and cheaply isn't.
As an example, Laura K seems to wind up a lot of people with her "bias" but so many of the accusations don't stand up to scrutiny. People call others biased when they don't say what they think.
Where the been has crossed the line has been the imposition of direct Tory party plants to head BBC News, be DG and Chair. Though their malign influence the left alleges is so subtle as to hardly be an issue. Not compared to right wing tabloids anyway.
My current guess is that the outcome of the next GE will be fairly close between Lab majority and falling slightly short. (My preference would be a Lab/LD coalition, and I have not given up on it yet).
If they cut a deal with pissed off tories where they stand too, we could have an interesting election instead of the usual see saw voting
FWIW I think the BBC tries very hard to be balanced on most things (not all - there is now no hint of skepticism left when reporting climate science, for instance, when some of the more out there claims/predictions ought to be at best queried). It does, however, tend to skew urban, metropolitan. I don't think it has a clue about the countryside and rural affairs, as shown by Countryfile, which is a programme about the countryside made by city dwellers, for city dwellers.
Everyone thought the story was biased. Israelis thought it pro-Palestinian. Palestinians thought it pro-Israeli. Because it didn't show the narrative they wanted (their side good, the other bad), it was inherently considered to be the work of political opponents.
It turns out humans don't really want impartiality; what they want is their existing preconceptions to be reinforced.
Humza Yousaf has become embroiled in a cronyism row after helping his actor friend Martin Compston secure a Scottish coronavirus vaccination appointment for a Hollywood star.
As health secretary, Yousaf told his officials to “action” a plea from the SNP-supporting actor who was “hitting a brick wall” trying to get Emily Hampshire, a Canadian co-star in the TV drama The Rig, vaccinated before filming began in Edinburgh.
In an email which began “Hey mate hope you’re well”, the Line of Duty actor asked for a “bit of advice” about arranging a vaccine for Hampshire, who also starred in the hit sitcom Schitt’s Creek.
The request was made amid concerns about the virus spreading on set.
Yousaf, now the first minister, forwarded the email to his private office, who passed it to the Scottish government’s health policy team. They in turn sent it to NHS Lothian, as the local health board, which arranged an appointment for Hampshire.
The intervention, which appears to have allowed the Canadian actress to jump the queue for a jab, prompted calls for Yousaf to refer himself to the ethical standards commissioner for a possible breach of the ministerial code.
Compston is a long-time supporter of the SNP and Scottish independence. He was billed as the main attraction in Yousaf’s official online campaign launch for the Holyrood 2021 election and starred in a promotional video for the party before the 2015 general election, when they swept the board north of the border.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/humza-yousaf-helped-martin-compston-get-covid-jab-appointment-for-co-star-tfqqbjdqg
Attended a wedding, a long time ago, and a minor Labour pol was trying to make sure that he wasn’t photographed with the happy couple. Despite sitting at the top table…
I'm more enlightened. Perfectly happy to be friends with Mr. Eagles, despite his deviant view of Caesar being a better general than Hannibal.
(Calling him a Tory is *really* going to piss off both his remaining supporters, isn't it? I just hope they don't read PB.)
Even in May, there were places where the Conservatives pulled off good results (eg East Cambs., Slough, Torbay, Bedford, Leicester) due to local factors. That is a difference from 1994-96, were results were just appalling everywhere.
And as for climate, my point to my friend was that they would never dare have someone from "the other side" to argue a different position on climate change.
*although, quite often it was James Delingpole
Looking at one or two events, specially without local knowledge, only benefits the bookmaker.
Yes, it’s Donald Fucking Trump.
I was always amused by the belief that AI would be noble and intelligent - even if evil. But this is a bit of a disappointment.
Chippenham (Wiltshire) Town Council Byelection Sheldon Ward result:
Churchman (Con)127 (17.6%)
Clarke (Ind) 112 (16.6%)
Ward (LD) 481 (66.8%)
I suppose this is the other side of the story as against Dinnington.
NEW:
'— Rachel Reeves sends personal letters to Tory donors inviting them to 1-1 breakfasts
— ramping up of Labour outreach to biz/City with direct pitch to Tory backers
— one donor who got an invite open to meeting. Another already met Labour officials'
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1679748602678091777?s=20
One of the many Socialists expelled from Labour wins against SKS puppet.
He says he was "falsely accused" of liking an antisemitic cartoon in 2018 and standing up for Jo Bird the Socialist Jew when she was accused of being a Socialist i mean Anti Semite and expelled.
My Party came 3rd with a very decent 21%
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
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1h
Boleyn (Newham) council by-election result:
IND: 42.5% (+42.5)
LAB: 32.1% (-27.0)
GRN: 21.1% (+3.5)
CON: 2.5% (-15.6)
REF: 0.8% (+0.8)
LDEM: 0.8% (+0.8)
Votes cast: 2,710
Independent GAIN from Labour.
(dogs? families? expectations?)
But I don't think they would have someone as you suggest either, that said.
My biggest beef with the BBC is it's balancing or equalising for example Patrick Minford's view as equal to the million economists who say his analysis is tosh.
Making out Beergate to he as egregious as Partygate was another fail in the interests of "balance"
The most absurd is the one I always bang on about "Boris and the curious case of the Cenotaph".
Edwards was the most egregious proponent when it came to throwing in an absurdity to ensure non -partisanship.
*at least was ~15 years ago when I was active on the edge of this area
Outflanked to the left by Sunak on Public Sector Pay being the latest example
Austerity supporting Labour says it wouldnt pay what the independent pay bodies recommended as it would not be in line with Labours fiscal rules which take precedence.
When it comes to tabloids there are far more on the right than not, but not exclusively. Though tabloid TV really is that biased - a choice of GBeebies or TalkTory. Though the cut through of both is so small as to not be an issue.
Its a hard job to report on politically divisive issues when the population is divided. Especially when we have had ignorance and stupidity weaponised so that people complain when the Beeb doesn't report their inaccurate non-truth. But that's on both sides of the political spectrum.
Regardless of how the thing is funded and structured going forward - and the license fee has to go - it would be good to maintain that neutrality as part of its broadcasting license. Leave bullshit and bias for live-on-YouTube clickbait artists like Dan Wootton and Aaron Bastani
Which is ironic when you think about it.