politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 23rd 2014
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1688 spoilt ballots with stuff like "I'm voting UKIP" scrawled over them and pictures of various parts of anatomy would be hilarious.0
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Diplomacy is war by other means.Socrates said:@OblitusSumMe
If you think there was ever any possibility that the EU could rule that money had to go back to Britain then you truly are naive. If France had to pay more it would go to the EU, not back to member states. Money and power only flows in one direction.
This is why British PMs lose in the EU - they think that its some happy-clappy brotherhood of man organisation and if we give something we'll get something back another time. The EU knows its about power.
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So Call me Dave is...Socrates said:
Oh come off it. It's the EU officials that write-up the small print, not the politicians. Maybe the politicians were mugged when they put their signature down, but when that's done by money lenders and banks its called "predatory behaviour".
Too wee, too poor, too stupid ?
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How about this?nigel4england said:
Anyone still struggling tog understand the UKIP phenomenon please read the above passage
The UK joins the EEC, knowing full well the migrant worker provisions of the Treaty of Rome.
After the Berlin Wall comes down, the UK presses for poverty-stricken former Eastern Bloc countries to be admitted to the EU.
UK starts screaming about all the immigrants coming into Britain from Eastern Bloc.
Do you realise how stupid this makes us look? Surely our civil servants have got the hang of this Europe mallarky by now?0 -
It's like those PFI contracts !0
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The result could have been something like this for example:
Kelly Tolhurst: 2,043 (50.44%)
Anna Firth: 2,007 (49.56%)
Spoilt/blank: 1,638
Total returned: 5,688
Valid votes: 4,0500 -
On a non-political note can anyone think of an explanation for this government's strategy of non-action on the issue.TheScreamingEagles said:
Go and ask him at his open meeting in the next few days. Is open to all.
I haven't got a link to the venue or date, but it should be up somewhere.
Its easy to explain why Labour did nothing - they had votes to lose - but why has this government decided to do nothing.
Somebody yesturday had an idea that government non-action was in return for information on Islamic terrorists. A bit bizarre but it wouldn't surprise me if that didn't feature somewhere.
Lets say that MI5 had some informers who was also rapists. The government agrees for them to be left alone if they continue to provide information. After all the victims are just 'wwc up north' who the government think are worthless and far less important that information on terrorists who might attack London.
But the issue then turns out to be far bigger and far more widespread than first thought. And the government is now implicated in allowing it to happen.
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Continuing from my previous post:
Given those figures, it may have been that some bright spark decides it wouldn't look too good to publish these figures so they come up with the clever ruse of revealing the total ballots returned and the percentages for the two candidates, which means they can avoid revealing the fact that nearly 30% of the returned ballots weren't valid votes.0 -
Isabel Hardman initially tweeted that 4,000 votes had been counted in the primary.
Where did she get that figure from? Thin air?
It must have come from somewhere, and a strong possibility IMO is that it was from the sum of the two candidates' number of votes.0 -
The good thing is that OGH is getting stuck into it on twitter and wants to get to the bottom of it, so it will be investigated... obviously the Tories on here are completely ignoring it, but with a bit of luck the truth will outAndyJS said:Continuing from my previous post:
Given those figures, it may have been that some bright spark decides it wouldn't look too good to publish these figures so they come up with the clever ruse of revealing the total ballots returned and the percentages for the two candidates, which means they can avoid revealing the fact that nearly 30% of the returned ballots weren't valid votes.
5600 returns is awful return, well below what they would have expected, but 4000 & its all over
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Amazing how many people aren't interested in getting hold of the real figures: Crick, for example.0
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Ker..Ching! That's my first R + S bet won.
Ms Tolhurst cut it a bit fine, though. I was expecting her to win with a reasonable margin.0 -
I don't think soTheScreamingEagles said:
The other problems foreseen with re-introducing the death penalty is that it will bugger up the legal system.Sean_F said:
I've no moral objection to it. Some people deserve to be executed. The problem lies in determining who deserves execution as opposed to a whole life sentence, which must be arbitrary.Richard_Tyndall said:
But as a matter of principle I could not support a party that was in favour of capital punishment whether they allowed a free vote or not.Sean_F said:
Assume, for the sake of argument, UKIP won 326 seats. There'd surely be a free vote on capital punishment, but it would probably get voted down.Richard_Tyndall said:
If they did that would be the final straw for me. No government should have the power to execute it's citizens.Pulpstar said:UKIP to give referendum on capital punishment.
1) You will get people on juries who are opposed to the death penalty on principle, and will never vote to convict
and this is crucial.
2) The benchmark for convicting someone will be raised by the jury will be raised, if they their decision will lead to someone's execution, we could see more guilty people found not guilty
3) The appeals process will go on and on, look at some of the length of appeals in the US!
1) they can be weeded out at the jury selection stage, as happens in the US.
2) well, a good jury will "hearken to the evidence", perhaps more so in a capital case. In the death penalty era there were some "odd" acquittals, most sensationally in the "Green Bicycle Case" of 1919.
3) surprising as it may seem, not many of the condemned bothered to appeal...0 -
Other odd acquittals were the cases of the Brighton Trunk Murder Number 2 (1934), Donald Hume (1949) and John Bodkin Adams (1957)...0
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Well I saw the 4,000 figure & 50 vote difference 7 hours ago hereAndyJS said:Isabel Hardman initially tweeted that 4,000 votes had been counted in the primary.
Where did she get that figure from? Thin air?
It must have come from somewhere, and a strong possibility IMO is that it was from the sum of the two candidates' number of votes.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/10/kelly-tolhurst-wins-rochester-primary-on-turnout-of-4000/
and it was pretty clear that she had a good source.
The later addition is clearly following the party spin.0 -
I find it ironic the "libertarian" Carswell and his adoring acolytes on here make such a fuss about a referendum on the death penalty. Signs already of a disconnect between some of the Ukip elite and their socially conservative C2 voters. Lol and I thought it was only DC who was supposed to be out of touch with his supporters.0
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It'd be good to know from a betting perspectiveNorm said:
Why should the Tories bother - let their enemies to the right and left get their knickers in a twist if they want to.AndyJS said:Amazing how many people aren't interested in getting hold of the real figures: Crick, for example.
Is it a maximum bet on Ukip to win or just a very big bet?
Do I back 45-50% or 50%+ as the Ukip vote share?
If we knew the primary returns it would help0 -
Hey, the good news is I'm all green on the next GE to the tune of £529. Just cashed out.
Will get back in, I'm sure...
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Great to see QT coming from (yet) another of L'pool's architectural gems, the former Congregational Church in Chinatown (now an Arts and community centre)
http://www.allertonoak.com/images/GU10GreatGeorgeStCongregationalChurch.jpg
The tallest Corinthian columns in the country, AFAIK.0 -
They've given wonderful ammunition to Cameron, so good I wonder if it's a stitch-up.Indigo said:And the EU just can't stop giving UKIP ammunition today
Here's a prediction: He'll refuse to pay up, perhaps even flounce out.
You read it here first.0 -
And then quietly pay up anyway... its not like there isn't precedent. Vetogasm2 incoming!Richard_Nabavi said:
They've given wonderful ammunition to Cameron, so good I wonder if it's a stitch-up.
Here's a prediction: He'll refuse to pay up, perhaps even flounce out.
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where are the voters who believe in both limited immigration and science supposed to go?Indigo said:And the EU just can't stop giving UKIP ammunition today
Herman Van Rompuy @euHvR
Deal! At least 40% emissions cut by 2030. World's most ambitious, cost-effective, fair #EU2030 climate energy policy agreed #EUCO
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"Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence)
The SNP will be hoping that the opinion poll rises in the wake of the Scottish referendum (which in some cases project no less than fifteen MP’s at Westminster and another majority at Holywrood) will manage to overturn the problems that they have been having in Scotland of late. So far this year, the SNP have lost three seats in local by-elections (this is in comparsion with Plaid being unchanged and the Greens gaining three) and the last by-election here in July wasn’t that encouraging either."
Bearing in mind that Scottish local Councils use STV for all-Council elections but the Alternative Vote for by-elections, I wonder how valid this comment is. For example, a party could win a seat under STV by reaching the quota at the seventh stage of the count but easily fail to win the seat in a by-election as it is excluded at an early stage of the count. Rather than look at gains and losses of seats, therefore, it would be be more meaningful to look at changes in vote share. The verdict on the SNP may still be the same - I don't know - but I think that the point I am making needs to be considered.0
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