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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 23rd 2014

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    1688 spoilt ballots with stuff like "I'm voting UKIP" scrawled over them and pictures of various parts of anatomy would be hilarious.
  • Socrates said:

    @OblitusSumMe

    If you think there was ever any possibility that the EU could rule that money had to go back to Britain then you truly are naive. If France had to pay more it would go to the EU, not back to member states. Money and power only flows in one direction.

    Diplomacy is war by other means.

    This is why British PMs lose in the EU - they think that its some happy-clappy brotherhood of man organisation and if we give something we'll get something back another time. The EU knows its about power.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Socrates said:


    Oh come off it. It's the EU officials that write-up the small print, not the politicians. Maybe the politicians were mugged when they put their signature down, but when that's done by money lenders and banks its called "predatory behaviour".

    So Call me Dave is...

    Too wee, too poor, too stupid ?

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited October 2014


    Anyone still struggling tog understand the UKIP phenomenon please read the above passage

    How about this?

    The UK joins the EEC, knowing full well the migrant worker provisions of the Treaty of Rome.

    After the Berlin Wall comes down, the UK presses for poverty-stricken former Eastern Bloc countries to be admitted to the EU.

    UK starts screaming about all the immigrants coming into Britain from Eastern Bloc.

    Do you realise how stupid this makes us look? Surely our civil servants have got the hang of this Europe mallarky by now?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    It's like those PFI contracts !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The result could have been something like this for example:

    Kelly Tolhurst: 2,043 (50.44%)
    Anna Firth: 2,007 (49.56%)
    Spoilt/blank: 1,638

    Total returned: 5,688
    Valid votes: 4,050

  • Go and ask him at his open meeting in the next few days. Is open to all.

    I haven't got a link to the venue or date, but it should be up somewhere.

    On a non-political note can anyone think of an explanation for this government's strategy of non-action on the issue.

    Its easy to explain why Labour did nothing - they had votes to lose - but why has this government decided to do nothing.

    Somebody yesturday had an idea that government non-action was in return for information on Islamic terrorists. A bit bizarre but it wouldn't surprise me if that didn't feature somewhere.

    Lets say that MI5 had some informers who was also rapists. The government agrees for them to be left alone if they continue to provide information. After all the victims are just 'wwc up north' who the government think are worthless and far less important that information on terrorists who might attack London.

    But the issue then turns out to be far bigger and far more widespread than first thought. And the government is now implicated in allowing it to happen.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Continuing from my previous post:

    Given those figures, it may have been that some bright spark decides it wouldn't look too good to publish these figures so they come up with the clever ruse of revealing the total ballots returned and the percentages for the two candidates, which means they can avoid revealing the fact that nearly 30% of the returned ballots weren't valid votes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Isabel Hardman initially tweeted that 4,000 votes had been counted in the primary.

    Where did she get that figure from? Thin air?

    It must have come from somewhere, and a strong possibility IMO is that it was from the sum of the two candidates' number of votes.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Continuing from my previous post:

    Given those figures, it may have been that some bright spark decides it wouldn't look too good to publish these figures so they come up with the clever ruse of revealing the total ballots returned and the percentages for the two candidates, which means they can avoid revealing the fact that nearly 30% of the returned ballots weren't valid votes.

    The good thing is that OGH is getting stuck into it on twitter and wants to get to the bottom of it, so it will be investigated... obviously the Tories on here are completely ignoring it, but with a bit of luck the truth will out

    5600 returns is awful return, well below what they would have expected, but 4000 & its all over
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Amazing how many people aren't interested in getting hold of the real figures: Crick, for example.
  • Ker..Ching! That's my first R + S bet won.

    Ms Tolhurst cut it a bit fine, though. I was expecting her to win with a reasonable margin.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited October 2014

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP to give referendum on capital punishment.

    If they did that would be the final straw for me. No government should have the power to execute it's citizens.
    Assume, for the sake of argument, UKIP won 326 seats. There'd surely be a free vote on capital punishment, but it would probably get voted down.
    But as a matter of principle I could not support a party that was in favour of capital punishment whether they allowed a free vote or not.
    I've no moral objection to it. Some people deserve to be executed. The problem lies in determining who deserves execution as opposed to a whole life sentence, which must be arbitrary.
    The other problems foreseen with re-introducing the death penalty is that it will bugger up the legal system.

    1) You will get people on juries who are opposed to the death penalty on principle, and will never vote to convict

    and this is crucial.

    2) The benchmark for convicting someone will be raised by the jury will be raised, if they their decision will lead to someone's execution, we could see more guilty people found not guilty

    3) The appeals process will go on and on, look at some of the length of appeals in the US!
    I don't think so

    1) they can be weeded out at the jury selection stage, as happens in the US.

    2) well, a good jury will "hearken to the evidence", perhaps more so in a capital case. In the death penalty era there were some "odd" acquittals, most sensationally in the "Green Bicycle Case" of 1919.

    3) surprising as it may seem, not many of the condemned bothered to appeal...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Other odd acquittals were the cases of the Brighton Trunk Murder Number 2 (1934), Donald Hume (1949) and John Bodkin Adams (1957)...
  • oldnatoldnat Posts: 136
    edited October 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Isabel Hardman initially tweeted that 4,000 votes had been counted in the primary.

    Where did she get that figure from? Thin air?

    It must have come from somewhere, and a strong possibility IMO is that it was from the sum of the two candidates' number of votes.

    Well I saw the 4,000 figure & 50 vote difference 7 hours ago here

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/10/kelly-tolhurst-wins-rochester-primary-on-turnout-of-4000/

    and it was pretty clear that she had a good source.

    The later addition is clearly following the party spin.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    I find it ironic the "libertarian" Carswell and his adoring acolytes on here make such a fuss about a referendum on the death penalty. Signs already of a disconnect between some of the Ukip elite and their socially conservative C2 voters. Lol and I thought it was only DC who was supposed to be out of touch with his supporters.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    AndyJS said:

    Amazing how many people aren't interested in getting hold of the real figures: Crick, for example.

    Why should the Tories bother - let their enemies to the right and left get their knickers in a twist if they want to.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Well said.
    Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    Amazing how many people aren't interested in getting hold of the real figures: Crick, for example.

    Why should the Tories bother - let their enemies to the right and left get their knickers in a twist if they want to.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Norm said:

    AndyJS said:

    Amazing how many people aren't interested in getting hold of the real figures: Crick, for example.

    Why should the Tories bother - let their enemies to the right and left get their knickers in a twist if they want to.
    It'd be good to know from a betting perspective

    Is it a maximum bet on Ukip to win or just a very big bet?

    Do I back 45-50% or 50%+ as the Ukip vote share?

    If we knew the primary returns it would help
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Hey, the good news is I'm all green on the next GE to the tune of £529. Just cashed out.

    Will get back in, I'm sure...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Great to see QT coming from (yet) another of L'pool's architectural gems, the former Congregational Church in Chinatown (now an Arts and community centre)
    http://www.allertonoak.com/images/GU10GreatGeorgeStCongregationalChurch.jpg
    The tallest Corinthian columns in the country, AFAIK.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    And the EU just can't stop giving UKIP ammunition today

    Herman Van Rompuy ‏@euHvR
    Deal! At least 40% emissions cut by 2030. World's most ambitious, cost-effective, fair #EU2030 climate energy policy agreed #EUCO
  • Indigo said:

    And the EU just can't stop giving UKIP ammunition today

    They've given wonderful ammunition to Cameron, so good I wonder if it's a stitch-up.

    Here's a prediction: He'll refuse to pay up, perhaps even flounce out.

    You read it here first.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2014


    They've given wonderful ammunition to Cameron, so good I wonder if it's a stitch-up.

    Here's a prediction: He'll refuse to pay up, perhaps even flounce out.

    And then quietly pay up anyway... its not like there isn't precedent. Vetogasm2 incoming!
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Indigo said:

    And the EU just can't stop giving UKIP ammunition today

    Herman Van Rompuy ‏@euHvR
    Deal! At least 40% emissions cut by 2030. World's most ambitious, cost-effective, fair #EU2030 climate energy policy agreed #EUCO

    where are the voters who believe in both limited immigration and science supposed to go?

  • "Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (Ind Defence)

    The SNP will be hoping that the opinion poll rises in the wake of the Scottish referendum (which in some cases project no less than fifteen MP’s at Westminster and another majority at Holywrood) will manage to overturn the problems that they have been having in Scotland of late. So far this year, the SNP have lost three seats in local by-elections (this is in comparsion with Plaid being unchanged and the Greens gaining three) and the last by-election here in July wasn’t that encouraging either."

    Bearing in mind that Scottish local Councils use STV for all-Council elections but the Alternative Vote for by-elections, I wonder how valid this comment is. For example, a party could win a seat under STV by reaching the quota at the seventh stage of the count but easily fail to win the seat in a by-election as it is excluded at an early stage of the count. Rather than look at gains and losses of seats, therefore, it would be be more meaningful to look at changes in vote share. The verdict on the SNP may still be the same - I don't know - but I think that the point I am making needs to be considered.
This discussion has been closed.