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LDs 67% favourite in Mid Beds, LAB 88% in Uxbridge & S Ruislip – politicalbetting.com

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  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    26th Amendment to the the Constitution, section 1

    "The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age."
    I think the Dems need to run on 3 constitutional amendments for the next 15 - 20 years and weave them into their general narrative of their view of freedom. The amendment you propose would be one. I'd also add a distinct right to privacy, including the right to abortion, family planning and to have consensual relationships with other adults and the ability to request the information held by private companies and the state that pertain to you. And finally I would add term limits to SCOTUS (20 years), the Senate (12 years), and the House (8 years). You could even make another amendment clarifying money is not speech and that corporations aren't people.

    That would make the Democrats the party of freedom to vote and live a private life, the party against democratic interference from corporate money and the party for democratic reform of the representative democracy to make sure people don't get institutionalised.

    I doubt they would run on these, though - they're quite radical and would break up some of the power that benefit the Democratic elites as well. But I imagine they would all have plurality support.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811

    Could he run for mayor of London as an independent as Ken living standard?
    A glitch in your dictation software? Chrome's voice (on video) to text function also fails with names.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    Far be it from me to provide actual evidence on Ofsted, but this is what the report on the school in Reading that led to the tragic suicide actually says on safeguarding:

    Leaders have a weak understanding of safeguarding requirements and procedures. They have not exercised sufficient leadership or oversight of this important work. As a result, records of safeguarding concerns and the tracking of subsequent actions are poor. Leaders have not ensured that all required employment checks are complete for some staff employed at the school. These weaknesses pose potential risks to pupils.

    Now, one can argue against the inspection framework and the emphasis on safeguarding, but I suspect we'd all agree that not completing all the required employment checks is pretty poor.

    However this is in the context of the school in Cambridge where Ofsted have actually apologized and withdrawn the report because it was total garbage (full disclosure: a friend of mine is on the Board of Governors at that school). Ofsted is sufficiently broken for the reports to be considered unreliable.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    148grss said:

    I think the Dems need to run on 3 constitutional amendments for the next 15 - 20 years and weave them into their general narrative of their view of freedom. The amendment you propose would be one. I'd also add a distinct right to privacy, including the right to abortion, family planning and to have consensual relationships with other adults and the ability to request the information held by private companies and the state that pertain to you. And finally I would add term limits to SCOTUS (20 years), the Senate (12 years), and the House (8 years). You could even make another amendment clarifying money is not speech and that corporations aren't people.

    That would make the Democrats the party of freedom to vote and live a private life, the party against democratic interference from corporate money and the party for democratic reform of the representative democracy to make sure people don't get institutionalised.

    I doubt they would run on these, though - they're quite radical and would break up some of the power that benefit the Democratic elites as well. But I imagine they would all have plurality support.
    Er... the 26th amendment was passed in 1971, no need for the Democrats to propose that one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060

    Mrs Capitano has been DSL (Designated Safeguarding Lead) at her last two schools and has mentored others on it. She was at the Oxfordshire safeguarding conference last week. I'd post the agenda but it would just make PB too depressing for a sunny Monday morning. Let's just say that an entire day on child sexual abuse is probably (hopefully) no-one's idea of fun.

    A few points I've picked up from her, and from seeing our local primary get failed by Ofsted on safeguarding issues.

    Safeguarding (at primary level at least) is almost entirely about home issues, not school issues. It is directly correlated with deprivation levels in the school catchment. It is basically teachers acting as social workers, because there aren't any/enough social workers. It is absolutely usual to have "team around the child" meetings for home problems which are nonetheless chaired by the head or the DSL because childrens' social care at county is under-resourced.

    As such, a school's performance on safeguarding is probably not relevant to the majority of kids at the school or their parents. 99% of kids at her current school, and 90% at the previous one, have no cause to appear on the safeguarding radar at all.

    So for that reason, I agree with those protesting about Ofsted's single-word judgements. For most parents/kids, it's misleading to add a single-word judgement where a failure on safeguarding masks excellent teaching. Just publish individual scores/levels without aggregating them into one single rating.

    However...

    Fulfilling your safeguarding responsibilities isn't really that hard. (Fixing the underlying social issues is, but Ofsted doesn't rate you on that!) If a school is neglecting its safeguarding responsibilities, the head is incompetent. And an incompetent head generally doesn't run a good school.

    That was one of the reasons we chose not to send Capitano Junior to our local primary, and went out-of-catchment instead. It had just been failed by Ofsted on safeguarding. The school's line was that it was a "paperwork mistake". It turns out that the head had just told a close-to-retirement teacher to become DSL and hadn't checked at all whether she was doing her job. Surprise surprise, she wasn't. We looked a bit closer and this couldn't-care-less attitude permeated all the way through the school. Four years on, the school has got through two permanent heads, two temporaries, and might slowly be hauling itself back to an acceptable standard. Meanwhile, the school we did choose is not remotely "Ofsteddy" - it's a liberal little village primary where the kids are given space to develop - but the head is supremely competent and knows damn well that all her paperwork is in order, and that the troubled kids are being monitored and issues passed up to county.

    That's an incredibly useful anecdote :)

    Did you have to put down 'reasons' why you were deciding to send Cap Jr out the catchment area ?

    I've only got one school - which was inadequate but has now been academised (And hasn't had an OFSTED in it's new form) in my catchment area but quite a few other schools would potentially be viable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    They probably mean that other people's children should be whacked. In any case, presumably the entire British cane-making industry closed down in the 1980s, not to mention we are still part of the ECHR. To be serious, what parents are saying is schools are not doing a very good job of preventing disruption, which brings us back to safeguarding, Ofsted and box-ticking.
    There were some interesting discussion between the middle class people sending children to the local Free School and the parents from the estates.

    The middle class people were a bit shocked by stern enforcement (detentions etc) of rules on uniforms, lateness, politeness to teachers and other pupils etc.

    The parents from the estates uniformly stated that this was exactly what they wanted - they'd often moved across London to get their children into a school where they would have an ordered existence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Boris Johnson's hairdresser in line for OBE

    https://twitter.com/LondonEconomic/status/1667906479121129472?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,516
    HYUFD said:

    And ten years ago a poll found 53% of voters would allow teachers to use the cane again in school with Conservative voters in particular pro caning

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2011/10/07/should-schoolchildren-be-caned
    Correlation between voting Conservative and wanting to cane naughty young children. That's quite an odd one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited June 2023
    felix said:

    Maybe , but if there was therefore no immediate election, so what?
    True but see also Germany where the CDU and SPD grand coalitions reduced their voteshares ultimately longer term and boosted the votes for the Greens and AfD in particular.

    In 2005 the CDU/CSU got 35% and the SPD 34%, by 2021 the CDU/CSU got just 24% and the SPD just 25%
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    edited June 2023

    Er... the 26th amendment was passed in 1971, no need for the Democrats to propose that one.
    That was my point - Vivek Ramaswamy is

    1) Ignorant of the constitution
    2) triangulating
    3) a combination of both
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,733
    mwadams said:

    However this is in the context of the school in Cambridge where Ofsted have actually apologized and withdrawn the report because it was total garbage (full disclosure: a friend of mine is on the Board of Governors at that school). Ofsted is sufficiently broken for the reports to be considered unreliable.
    Of course Ofsted will make errors in the thousands of inspections it does, and I'm not particularly defending them. But in the case of the Reading School and the tragedy surrounding it, the report would have been pulled by now if it were not factually accurate. I pulled it off the Ofsted site this morning.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    148grss said:

    I think the Dems need to run on 3 constitutional amendments for the next 15 - 20 years and weave them into their general narrative of their view of freedom. The amendment you propose would be one. I'd also add a distinct right to privacy, including the right to abortion, family planning and to have consensual relationships with other adults and the ability to request the information held by private companies and the state that pertain to you. And finally I would add term limits to SCOTUS (20 years), the Senate (12 years), and the House (8 years). You could even make another amendment clarifying money is not speech and that corporations aren't people.

    That would make the Democrats the party of freedom to vote and live a private life, the party against democratic interference from corporate money and the party for democratic reform of the representative democracy to make sure people don't get institutionalised.

    I doubt they would run on these, though - they're quite radical and would break up some of the power that benefit the Democratic elites as well. But I imagine they would all have plurality support.
    Constitutional amendments require 2/3rds of states to agree to them.

    The last time Democrats got 2/3rds of states in their tally was... Lyndon Johnson - they also had 66 senate seats in 1964.

    2/3rds of States is incredibly difficult for any party to do, particularly the Dems.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    Mrs Capitano has been DSL (Designated Safeguarding Lead) at her last two schools and has mentored others on it. She was at the Oxfordshire safeguarding conference last week. I'd post the agenda but it would just make PB too depressing for a sunny Monday morning. Let's just say that an entire day on child sexual abuse is probably (hopefully) no-one's idea of fun.

    A few points I've picked up from her, and from seeing our local primary get failed by Ofsted on safeguarding issues.

    Safeguarding (at primary level at least) is almost entirely about home issues, not school issues. It is directly correlated with deprivation levels in the school catchment. It is basically teachers acting as social workers, because there aren't any/enough social workers. It is absolutely usual to have "team around the child" meetings for home problems which are nonetheless chaired by the head or the DSL because childrens' social care at county is under-resourced.

    As such, a school's performance on safeguarding is probably not relevant to the majority of kids at the school or their parents. 99% of kids at her current school, and 90% at the previous one, have no cause to appear on the safeguarding radar at all.

    So for that reason, I agree with those protesting about Ofsted's single-word judgements. For most parents/kids, it's misleading to add a single-word judgement where a failure on safeguarding masks excellent teaching. Just publish individual scores/levels without aggregating them into one single rating.

    However...

    Fulfilling your safeguarding responsibilities isn't really that hard. (Fixing the underlying social issues is, but Ofsted doesn't rate you on that!) If a school is neglecting its safeguarding responsibilities, the head is incompetent. And an incompetent head generally doesn't run a good school.

    That was one of the reasons we chose not to send Capitano Junior to our local primary, and went out-of-catchment instead. It had just been failed by Ofsted on safeguarding. The school's line was that it was a "paperwork mistake". It turns out that the head had just told a close-to-retirement teacher to become DSL and hadn't checked at all whether she was doing her job. Surprise surprise, she wasn't. We looked a bit closer and this couldn't-care-less attitude permeated all the way through the school. Four years on, the school has got through two permanent heads, two temporaries, and might slowly be hauling itself back to an acceptable standard. Meanwhile, the school we did choose is not remotely "Ofsteddy" - it's a liberal little village primary where the kids are given space to develop - but the head is supremely competent and knows damn well that all her paperwork is in order, and that the troubled kids are being monitored and issues passed up to county.

    Excellent thank you.

    Extremely well put.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited June 2023

    They probably mean that other people's children should be whacked. In any case, presumably the entire British cane-making industry closed down in the 1980s, not to mention we are still part of the ECHR. To be serious, what parents are saying is schools are not doing a very good job of preventing disruption, which brings us back to safeguarding, Ofsted and box-ticking.
    Plenty of canes still made and used in Singapore and Singapore tops the PISA rankings.

    Indeed, 'The Ministry of Education encourages schools to punish boys by caning for serious offences such as fighting, smoking, cheating, gang-related offences, vandalism, defiance and truancy. Students may also be caned for repeated cases of more minor offences, such as being late repeatedly in a term.'
    https://singaporeschools.fandom.com/wiki/Schools'_caning#:~:text=The Ministry of Education encourages,late repeatedly in a term.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    edited June 2023

    Could he run for mayor of London as an independent as Ken living standard?
    I remember Ken Living Standard. Had this obsession with Hitter. Ran against Boring Jonestown Massacre. As depicted in this entirely respected and independent historical document.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666

    Banana constitutional monarchy is a bit of a mouthful, as the actress said etc.
    Banana kingdom, though.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    HYUFD said:
    Wait. Boris Johnson had a hairdresser? But why not give her a gong? Didn't SamCam's stylist get one?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,733

    Mrs Capitano has been DSL (Designated Safeguarding Lead) at her last two schools and has mentored others on it. She was at the Oxfordshire safeguarding conference last week. I'd post the agenda but it would just make PB too depressing for a sunny Monday morning. Let's just say that an entire day on child sexual abuse is probably (hopefully) no-one's idea of fun.

    A few points I've picked up from her, and from seeing our local primary get failed by Ofsted on safeguarding issues.

    Safeguarding (at primary level at least) is almost entirely about home issues, not school issues. It is directly correlated with deprivation levels in the school catchment. It is basically teachers acting as social workers, because there aren't any/enough social workers. It is absolutely usual to have "team around the child" meetings for home problems which are nonetheless chaired by the head or the DSL because childrens' social care at county is under-resourced.

    As such, a school's performance on safeguarding is probably not relevant to the majority of kids at the school or their parents. 99% of kids at her current school, and 90% at the previous one, have no cause to appear on the safeguarding radar at all.

    So for that reason, I agree with those protesting about Ofsted's single-word judgements. For most parents/kids, it's misleading to add a single-word judgement where a failure on safeguarding masks excellent teaching. Just publish individual scores/levels without aggregating them into one single rating.

    However...

    Fulfilling your safeguarding responsibilities isn't really that hard. (Fixing the underlying social issues is, but Ofsted doesn't rate you on that!) If a school is neglecting its safeguarding responsibilities, the head is incompetent. And an incompetent head generally doesn't run a good school.

    That was one of the reasons we chose not to send Capitano Junior to our local primary, and went out-of-catchment instead. It had just been failed by Ofsted on safeguarding. The school's line was that it was a "paperwork mistake". It turns out that the head had just told a close-to-retirement teacher to become DSL and hadn't checked at all whether she was doing her job. Surprise surprise, she wasn't. We looked a bit closer and this couldn't-care-less attitude permeated all the way through the school. Four years on, the school has got through two permanent heads, two temporaries, and might slowly be hauling itself back to an acceptable standard. Meanwhile, the school we did choose is not remotely "Ofsteddy" - it's a liberal little village primary where the kids are given space to develop - but the head is supremely competent and knows damn well that all her paperwork is in order, and that the troubled kids are being monitored and issues passed up to county.

    Interesting. Your last sentence is critical. If competent leaders are doing the right thing in regard to looking after all their kids (for the kids' sake and not for Ofsted's), then they shouldn't have to worry about Ofsted at all.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188

    Could he run for mayor of London as an independent as Ken living standard?
    2031: On a popular political betting blog, the host writes a header opining that Labour PM Sadiq Khan was never truly popular - afterall his only electoral successes were against joke Tory opponents in London Mayoral elections, culminating in the 2024 London Mayoral election against the discredited Boris Johnson and then against electoral turn-off Suella Braverman, who led the Tories to their worst GE defeat since Major in the surprise election of 2026. Instead, he suggests that dull, charisma-free Tory leader Tom Pursglove has been underestimated by the betting public.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Constitutional amendments require 2/3rds of states to agree to them.

    The last time Democrats got 2/3rds of states in their tally was... Lyndon Johnson - they also had 66 senate seats in 1964.

    2/3rds of States is incredibly difficult for any party to do, particularly the Dems.
    Term limits for SCOTUS would be ruled unconstitutional by SCOTUS. Even with an amendment.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    kinabalu said:

    Correlation between voting Conservative and wanting to cane naughty young children. That's quite an odd one.
    I would expect 90% of this can be explained by both being correlated with age - and with the default position for views on education to be 'it was like x for me and I turned out ok'.

    (That said, my kids' primary school experience is light years better than mine was in the 80s, where the school was seemingly staffed almost entirely by idiots.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    Wait. Boris Johnson had a hairdresser? But why not give her a gong? Didn't SamCam's stylist get one?
    Boris is a man of the people and he knows a good hairdresser when he sees one
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,733
    Deleted as thought better of it and didn't wish to be rude.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 912
    148grss said:

    I think the Dems need to run on 3 constitutional amendments for the next 15 - 20 years and weave them into their general narrative of their view of freedom. The amendment you propose would be one. I'd also add a distinct right to privacy, including the right to abortion, family planning and to have consensual relationships with other adults and the ability to request the information held by private companies and the state that pertain to you. And finally I would add term limits to SCOTUS (20 years), the Senate (12 years), and the House (8 years). You could even make another amendment clarifying money is not speech and that corporations aren't people.

    That would make the Democrats the party of freedom to vote and live a private life, the party against democratic interference from corporate money and the party for democratic reform of the representative democracy to make sure people don't get institutionalised.

    I doubt they would run on these, though - they're quite radical and would break up some of the power that benefit the Democratic elites as well. But I imagine they would all have plurality support.
    I think privacy has proven bit broad from which to derive abortion (despite that, I agree fully with the reasoning behind earlier SCOTUS decisions). Not that it matters to opponents of abortion (or whatever else) what the constitution says, a well worded right to bodily autonomy would fit the bill better in my opinion.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,221
    edited June 2023

    I don't think that would help in any way as the "no smoke without fire" people would read whatever term was chosen as implying guilt.
    It might be helpful to avoid confusion in international contexts if our uses of the terms didn't drift too far from the common ones -- for instance IIRC the US asks on ESTA forms and the like "if you've ever been arrested" and implicitly assumes a similar use of the term to the US.
  • Farooq said:

    I think all agree that Boris Johnson's hairdresser should be vigorously and repeatedly caned by a Singaporean teacher.
    Alternatively anyone who is prepared to have Boris Johnson's hair as a client deserves a gong, like charity workers who work with the disadvantaged.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Plenty of canes still made and used in Singapore and Singapore tops the PISA rankings.

    Indeed, 'The Ministry of Education encourages schools to punish boys by caning for serious offences such as fighting, smoking, cheating, gang-related offences, vandalism, defiance and truancy. Students may also be caned for repeated cases of more minor offences, such as being late repeatedly in a term.'
    https://singaporeschools.fandom.com/wiki/Schools'_caning#:~:text=The Ministry of Education encourages,late repeatedly in a term.
    I’d like to preserve this post.

    While superficially frivolous, it’s clear evidence, to me, that even the true conservatives have given up.

    They’re no longer serious about being in/staying in government.

    I stick by my odds;

    Evens, the tories never again win a majority.

    4/1 they cease to be a meaningful electoral force within a decade.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    edited June 2023
    A
    Farooq said:

    I think all agree that Boris Johnson's hairdresser should be vigorously and repeatedly caned by a Singaporean teacher.
    The person in question, is as I understand it a long serving hairdresser in the hair dressing outfit in Parliament.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666
    Farooq said:

    This post is peak HYUFD. Bravo, sir. Bravo.
    Not only does Singapore use canes, it also makes them. Manufacturing powerhouse.

    Corporal punishment support is an example of the human psychology that goes: “bad things happened when I was young; they didn’t do me [much] harm; therefore those bad things
    are good things.”

    See also lax health and safety rules, coal fired power stations, not being allowed to work from home, patting one’s Secretary on the bum, and golliwogs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian PM and the Boris of Italy has died aged 86
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65877241
  • ping said:

    I’d like to preserve this post.

    It’s clear evidence, to me, that even the true conservatives have given up.

    They’re no longer serious about being in/staying in government.
    "True conservatives" like HYUFD have never been serious about being in/staying in government. Hence his penchant for sending the tanks into Spain/Scotland, caning, and 'brownfield'.

    The problem with the Conservative Party is when "true conservatives" come to represent party policy rather than be eccentric oddballs.
  • pm215 said:

    It might be helpful to avoid confusion in international contexts if our uses of the terms didn't drift too far from the common ones -- for instance IIRC the US asks on ESTA forms and the like "if you've ever been arrested" and implicitly assumes a similar use of the term to the US.
    I don't think our terminology differs all that much from the US and elsewhere. "Arrest" generally means to take someone into custody on suspicion of them having committed a crime.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,389
    edited June 2023
    Berlusconi has gone to the great bunga bunga party in the sky.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060

    Term limits for SCOTUS would be ruled unconstitutional by SCOTUS. Even with an amendment.
    Does Congress have (in extremis) the power to unmake SCOTUS ?

    I know parliament has this power over SCOTUK (Though it'd never be agreed to be used)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616
    edited June 2023

    When I was at school in the 90s it was a badly-kept secret that my English and Theory of Knowledge (Philosophy) teacher had done porn. Based on her age, I'd guess in the 70s or 80s.

    Obviously @TSE needs to educate you on the various flavours of such entertainment on offer these days.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478
    edited June 2023

    {The management of the Post Office have entered the chat}
    Which highlights the problem - the Post Office were police force, prosecutor, judge and executioner

    And Ofsted are the same - there is no independent sanity check and it's very easy to solve a problem by forcing the next person down the chain to just follow what the previous person says (because you hide the awkward bits that made the decision dubious away)..
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,085
    Good to hear Sunak stick it to Johnson.

    They probably need to do more of that going forward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited June 2023
    ping said:

    I’d like to preserve this post.

    While superficially frivolous, it’s clear evidence, to me, that even the true conservatives have given up.

    They’re no longer serious about being in/staying in government.

    I stick by my odds;

    Evens, the tories never again win a majority.

    4/1 they cease to be a meaningful electoral force within a decade.
    Given I earlier posted a poll with 53% of UK voters backing restoring the cane in schools (even if 10 years ago) yet another example of leftwingers like you underestimating support for rightwing policies
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478
    edited June 2023

    Berlusconi has gone to the great bunga bunga party in the sky.

    I suspect bunga bunga parties are down below not in the sky...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    "True conservatives" like HYUFD have never been serious about being in/staying in government. Hence his penchant for sending the tanks into Spain/Scotland, caning, and 'brownfield'.

    The problem with the Conservative Party is when "true conservatives" come to represent party policy rather than be eccentric oddballs.
    59% of UK voters also oppose allowing more houses to be built in the greenbelt
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1658839136315273216?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Does Congress have (in extremis) the power to unmake SCOTUS ?

    I know parliament has this power over SCOTUK (Though it'd never be agreed to be used)
    That would be an interesting battle to watch. The answer is no - The SCOTUS is party of Constitution, which can only be changed by the amendment process. Anything that Congress tried to do on it's own would be ruled unconstitutional by... SCOTUS.
  • eek said:

    Which highlights the problem - the Post Office were police force, prosecutor, judge and executioner

    And Ofsted are the same - there is no independent sanity check...
    I don't think the two comparisons are remotely the same. Ofsted are the independent sanity check.

    The Post Office were not just the above but they were also a party to the issues. Their own software was at fault, but they were marking their own homework so refused to see it.

    Ofsted aren't a party in the same way as the Post Office is. Its not like schools are running flawed Ofsted software that is causing the problems Ofsted are then marking them down on.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110

    I don't think our terminology differs all that much from the US and elsewhere. "Arrest" generally means to take someone into custody on suspicion of them having committed a crime.
    There are I believe differences in arrest rules in England and Scotland, but I can't be arsed to dig out what they are.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    Term limits for SCOTUS would be ruled unconstitutional by SCOTUS. Even with an amendment.
    SCOTUS are providing a really bad advertisement for Constitutional law and make the statute law/supremacy of Parliament approach in the UK look a lot better.
  • HYUFD said:

    59% of UK voters also oppose allowing more houses to be built in the greenbelt
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1658839136315273216?s=20
    Which is why parties serious about governance don't get led solely by opinion polls but show leadership instead.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    I think all agree that [redacted] should be vigorously and repeatedly caned by a Singaporean teacher.

    Do you want to think about that one for a bit? The person in question is a civilian whose only sin is to have Parliamentarians as clients.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188
    HYUFD said:

    Boris is a man of the people and he knows a good hairdresser when he sees one
    And runs as fast as he can in the opposite direction?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,389
    eek said:

    I suspect bunga bunga parties are down below not in the sky...
    He’s going to heaven.

    He made the momentous and correct decision to support the liberation of Iraq.

    That gets you into heaven.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    Farooq said:

    Oh, so you're saying they've been punished enough? Fair point.
    I'm saying an OBE for dealing with the barnets on some of them seems about right.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    I don't think the two comparisons are remotely the same. Ofsted are the independent sanity check.

    The Post Office were not just the above but they were also a party to the issues. Their own software was at fault, but they were marking their own homework so refused to see it.

    Ofsted aren't a party in the same way as the Post Office is. Its not like schools are running flawed Ofsted software that is causing the problems Ofsted are then marking them down on.
    You've clearly not had to deal with an Ofsted report - I have and when I did the number of mistakes they made where they had to back down was significant. Now it didn't change the final score but it was rather annoying to see things that were factually impossible (review of a teacher who was off sick that day) being written down as fact...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    HYUFD said:

    Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian PM and the Boris of Italy has died aged 86
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65877241

    Fake tan suppliers and hair transplant surgeons mourn in their thousands.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478
    TOPPING said:

    Ah interesting. So the issue is then not that people disagree with the principle that safeguarding should be the main determinant of the rating, but that Ofsted's measurement of safeguarding and the process around reporting it are flawed?
    Take the total spending on schools - take 5-10% of that budget and that is what the paperwork Ofsted insists on costs.

    Now a lot of the paperwork is required but not all of it but given how Ofsted work - given the choice of 1 floating teacher / TA or 2 admin staff any Headmaster wishing to have a stress free live will have the admin staff.
  • eek said:

    I suspect bunga bunga parties are down below not in the sky...
    All the best and most interesting people surely go down below.

    I'd rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints, the sinners have much more fun.
  • eek said:

    You've clearly not had to deal with an Ofsted report - I have and when I did the number of mistakes they made where they had to back down was significant. Now it didn't change the final score but it was rather annoying to see things that were factually impossible (review of a teacher who was off sick that day) being written down as fact...
    I'm not saying Ofsted are perfect, far from it, no organisation ever will be.

    But at least they are independent, unlike the Post Office who were a party to the issues (and responsible for them) but were handling matters in-house.

    Of course things can and should be better, but that's true in all walks of life.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921

    All the best and most interesting people surely go down below.

    I'd rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints, the sinners have much more fun.
    Not even in jest, Barty, not even in jest... :(
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,260
    edited June 2023

    There are I believe differences in arrest rules in England and Scotland, but I can't be arsed to dig out what they are.
    Sure, there are legal differences in rights under arrest between jurisdictions, and the precise process, and always will be. But the point is that it doesn't require the invention of a whole new language. Arrest is taking into custody on suspicion of a crime.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:

    Plenty of canes still made and used in Singapore and Singapore tops the PISA rankings.

    Indeed, 'The Ministry of Education encourages schools to punish boys by caning for serious offences such as fighting, smoking, cheating, gang-related offences, vandalism, defiance and truancy. Students may also be caned for repeated cases of more minor offences, such as being late repeatedly in a term.'
    https://singaporeschools.fandom.com/wiki/Schools'_caning#:~:text=The Ministry of Education encourages,late repeatedly in a term.
    Is it just me, or does discussion of getting caned in school bring back memories of the very funny Ali G talking about the subject, to a rather bemused Rhodes Boyson?

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=OV1fq75aWtY
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    I'm not saying Ofsted are perfect, far from it, no organisation ever will be.

    But at least they are independent, unlike the Post Office who were a party to the issues (and responsible for them) but were handling matters in-house.

    Of course things can and should be better, but that's true in all walks of life.
    Ofsted aren't really independent. And the right of appeal should be independent of Ofsted but it isn't...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798

    26th Amendment to the the Constitution, section 1

    "The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age."
    Could states constitutionally allow voters who are aged less than 18 to vote?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,990
    HYUFD said:

    Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian PM and the Boris of Italy has died aged 86
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65877241

    He will have a few things to explain away to the Almighty
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    Michael Gove stops Papa John's store opening over obesity fears for local children
    Planning inspectorate rejects appeal after local council blocked pizza takeaway

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/11/michael-gove-stops-papa-johns-store-opening-obesity-fears/ (£££)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,933
    HYUFD said:

    Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian PM and the Boris of Italy has died aged 86
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65877241

    We'll allow you a day of mourning.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157

    All the best and most interesting people surely go down below.

    I'd rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints, the sinners have much more fun.
    Unfortunately, some of those sinners' idea of fun will be sticking red hot pokers into parts of you where you really don't want red hot pokers.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Pulpstar said:

    That's an incredibly useful anecdote :)

    Did you have to put down 'reasons' why you were deciding to send Cap Jr out the catchment area ?

    I've only got one school - which was inadequate but has now been academised (And hasn't had an OFSTED in it's new form) in my catchment area but quite a few other schools would potentially be viable.
    In our case, the out-of-catchment school wasn't full, and (as a non-academy school) their admissions policy was just the standard distance-based one. So we were reasonably confident that Junior would get in. We did put down a couple of reasons, but not with any expectation that they'd be taken into account - if there'd been an extra 10 kids who lived closer than they'd have got in and Junior wouldn't, no matter what pleading we put on the form!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    Michael Gove stops Papa John's store opening over obesity fears for local children
    Planning inspectorate rejects appeal after local council blocked pizza takeaway

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/11/michael-gove-stops-papa-johns-store-opening-obesity-fears/ (£££)

    The way that fast food outlets target schools is something that should be looked at.

    I think there was a recording of an executive saying that, for them, getting children into the habit of going to their brand was a critical component of future sales.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    Eight of Boris Johnson’s picks for peerages blocked by Lords commission
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/06/11/boris-johnson-honours-list-eight-picks-blocked-holac/ (£££)

    Basically, Number 10 says Rishi's (and James Forsythe's) hands are clean; they did not block Boris's peers; Holac did.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787
    FF43 said:

    Could states constitutionally allow voters who are aged less than 18 to vote?
    That would require a US constitutional law expert to answer. The above Amendment *seems* to have no say in the matter.
  • .
    Sandpit said:

    Is it just me, or does discussion of getting caned in school bring back memories of the very funny Ali G talking about the subject, to a rather bemused Rhodes Boyson?

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=OV1fq75aWtY
    Never seen that before, the but maths section is absolutely hilarious.

    https://youtu.be/OV1fq75aWtY?t=147
  • Unfortunately, some of those sinners' idea of fun will be sticking red hot pokers into parts of you where you really don't want red hot pokers.
    No kinkshaming.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    The way that fast food outlets target schools is something that should be looked at.

    I think there was a recording of an executive saying that, for them, getting children into the habit of going to their brand was a critical component of future sales.
    I thought it was common knowledge that there are policies saying no takeaways within x yards of a school.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,528
    edited June 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    That's an incredibly useful anecdote :)

    Did you have to put down 'reasons' why you were deciding to send Cap Jr out the catchment area ?

    I've only got one school - which was inadequate but has now been academised (And hasn't had an OFSTED in it's new form) in my catchment area but quite a few other schools would potentially be viable.
    IIRC from when we did something similar - there’s no requirement to have a reason to send your kids out of catchment, but you are not guaranteed a place. The school will only take your children if they have spaces left after taking those they are legally required to take. In catchment children & those in local authority care get priority IIRC. Methods by which the remaining spaces are apportioned vary by academy / school / LA: The school our children went to issued places in strict order of distance from the school.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110

    Michael Gove stops Papa John's store opening over obesity fears for local children
    Planning inspectorate rejects appeal after local council blocked pizza takeaway

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/11/michael-gove-stops-papa-johns-store-opening-obesity-fears/ (£££)

    Would that Michael Gove could as consistent in putting the boot in to Papa Johnson's wee boy. His rearguard defence of BJ's reputation this morning was a slippery masterclass.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,666
    Andy_JS said:

    Shocking.

    "Teenagers would give up the right to vote to keep social media, survey reveals"

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/teenagers-right-vote-keep-social-media-survey-reveals

    A lot of people (not just teenagers) don't rate the right to vote much - they correctly judge that they will probably never make an individual difference in their entire lives, plus they think politics is pretty seedy and uninteresting anyway. After all, a "good" turnout is 75%, and I don't believe the other 25% are all dead or incapacitated. Nor are all the 75% really that niterested - it's just something one does.

    Not endorsing any of that, of course, but it's sadly reality. Fits with the polls showing large minorities would welcome a Strong Man sorting things out.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727
    edited June 2023
    Berlusconi has died.

    Oh, I now see it's already been mentioned.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,666
    Carnyx said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Molasses_Flood

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=yWtJGLG0aEcC&pg=PA263&redir_esc=y

    Another good flood read/story ...

    Rereading Pillars of the Earth, 1100 pages of easy read...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329
    TOPPING said:

    Obviously @TSE needs to educate you on the various flavours of such entertainment on offer these days.
    It would depend on the nature of the porn. If it’s Hot Teacher Seduces Teen Slut, there may be a safeguarding issue.
  • HYUFD said:

    No, I'm right.

    The birth rate in the UK is now just 1.61 per woman ie well below replacement level. So without high net immigration our population would decline longer term and deaths in due course exceed births and we would have more than enough houses than we need.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2021
    No, you're wrong.

    We are already millions short of what we need so even if population declined gradually it won't resolve the shortage.

    And furthermore the birth rate is still exceeding the death rate. So population isn't even declining even without immigration. Births have exceeded deaths in every year in this country except for 2020 (due to the pandemic) and 1976. Even in 2020 deaths only narrowly exceeded births and that was purely due to the pandemic - 2021 had births in excess of deaths again even with the pandemic.

    Births exceeded deaths by over 100k in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year stats exist for. There's been six-digit natural growth in the population of births over deaths every single year from 2004-2019, even without considering immigration.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478
    Given that we are talking about schools - are secondary school pupil numbers due to rise or fall over the next few years.

    I can't remember where to look for accurate details.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    .
    eek said:

    You've clearly not had to deal with an Ofsted report - I have and when I did the number of mistakes they made where they had to back down was significant. Now it didn't change the final score but it was rather annoying to see things that were factually impossible (review of a teacher who was off sick that day) being written down as fact...
    It should be noted that schools aren't arguing against inspection, which is essential, but rather complaining about the fallibility OFSTED, and the difficulty of doing anything about it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,329

    All the best and most interesting people surely go down below.

    I'd rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints, the sinners have much more fun.
    Well, you might get to meet folks like Julius Caesar and Napoleon.

    OTOH, you might get stuck with folks like Fred West and Oskar Dirlewanger.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    HYUFD said:

    59% of UK voters also oppose allowing more houses to be built in the greenbelt
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1658839136315273216?s=20
    Only c.30% of UK voters support the Tories.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188

    A lot of people (not just teenagers) don't rate the right to vote much - they correctly judge that they will probably never make an individual difference in their entire lives, plus they think politics is pretty seedy and uninteresting anyway. After all, a "good" turnout is 75%, and I don't believe the other 25% are all dead or incapacitated. Nor are all the 75% really that niterested - it's just something one does.

    Not endorsing any of that, of course, but it's sadly reality. Fits with the polls showing large minorities would welcome a Strong Man sorting things out.
    Interesting. I know this was specifically TikTok, but there are some serious points here. An engaged young person could well do more with social media to influence the state of the country than with a single vote - it could be quite sensible for e.g. a Greta Thunberg to choose keeping her social media accounts over her vote to effect change. That, of course, is as long as everyone else gets to vote!

    I understand that in reality it's much more likely that people wish to lol over the latest TikTok sensation than have a vote they likely won't bother to use anyway.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188

    Only c.30% of UK voters support the Tories.
    The rest are prime LD-target NIMBYs :wink:
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478
    Nigelb said:

    .

    It should be noted that schools aren't arguing against inspection, which is essential, but rather complaining about the fallibility OFSTED, and the difficulty of doing anything about it.
    I think the complaint is that paperwork is seen as essential by Ofsted - yet paperwork would be the very first thing we binned if we were trying to solve x issues at the same time.

    Paperwork allows issues to be both hidden away (we documented it but didn't do anything to actively fixed it) or the exact opposite - paperwork is incomplete because I spent the 3 hours the form takes to actually raise the issue with social services by finding someone to speak to.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,221

    I don't think our terminology differs all that much from the US and elsewhere. "Arrest" generally means to take someone into custody on suspicion of them having committed a crime.
    Right, but I thought this subthread started because the Scottish law changes meant the police could now arrest you when they didn't suspect you of having committed a crime but just wanted to get your witness evidence on video for potential later court cases? Maybe I misunderstood...
  • eek said:

    Given that we are talking about schools - are secondary school pupil numbers due to rise or fall over the next few years.

    I can't remember where to look for accurate details.

    Rise but not much further I believe.

    After number of live births fell to a plateau at the turn of the century, it then started rising again in 2003 (so young adults who are now 20) reaching a peak in 2012 (so primary age kids who are now 10).

    Numbers then drifted off and started falling post-2017.

    So I believe senior schools are due a rise in pupils over next few years, primary schools would be due a fall in pupils in next few years though.

    Immigration probably means that the numbers of both will rise though, secondary schools certainly should given a natural bump coming and record migration too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom#Vital_statistics_(1900–2022)
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    Given I earlier posted a poll with 53% of UK voters backing restoring the cane in schools (even if 10 years ago) yet another example of leftwingers like you underestimating support for rightwing policies
    How was the polling question framed? Because if it was "should the cane be brought back to schools?" then I can imagine many people would potentially be "it did me no harm", or even "lol, who cares, this is a stupid question".

    I think if the wording was "Imagine caning in school was legal, and one of the children in your family was caned for misbehaving at school. Would you consider that acceptable?" fewer people would support it. People are fine with the general idea of caning because that happens to other people's kids. Whereas saying it happens to your children is different.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    edited June 2023
    Selebian said:

    Interesting. I know this was specifically TikTok, but there are some serious points here. An engaged young person could well do more with social media to influence the state of the country than with a single vote - it could be quite sensible for e.g. a Greta Thunberg to choose keeping her social media accounts over her vote to effect change. That, of course, is as long as everyone else gets to vote!

    I understand that in reality it's much more likely that people wish to lol over the latest TikTok sensation than have a vote they likely won't bother to use anyway.
    It seems as if democracy is a bit annoying for some people because their vote is only worth the same as everyone else's, whereas with social media you can "get ahead" of other people in terms of influence if you're persistent enough. In that sense you could argue that people who complain that their vote isn't important enough are basically anti-democratic; they want their vote to be worth more than 1 in 45 million, or whatever it is in their country.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921
    @Anabobazina has again asked me to point out that they cannot post. Can @rcs1000 or @TSE press a magic button please?
  • Sean_F said:

    Well, you might get to meet folks like Julius Caesar and Napoleon.

    OTOH, you might get stuck with folks like Fred West and Oskar Dirlewanger.
    I'm disappointed in the community that nobody caught the blatant Billy Joel reference there, nor responded with a pun.

    Especially given the opportunity of such low hanging fruit about starting fires etc.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,188

    No kinkshaming.
    Not even if it involves Two Sisters, an Apeman, A Well Respected Man, Animals in the Zoo, the Death of a Clown, Lola, Mick Avory's Underpants and All of My Friends Were There? :blush:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    edited June 2023
    Things began to look very unusual two months ago.
    Today the charts need no commentary, they speak for themselves.
    This is the Atlantic.

    https://twitter.com/DrTELS/status/1667651296310992902

    "...Just the top few metres of our oceans store as much energy as the entirety of our atmosphere..."

    Some interesting weather is in prospect.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,260
    edited June 2023
    Sean_F said:

    It would depend on the nature of the porn. If it’s Hot Teacher Seduces Teen Slut, there may be a safeguarding issue.
    Would it be an issue for you if the teacher had, in a previous job as an actor, played child-killer Richard III at the RSC?

    I'm slightly struggling to see the practical difference in safeguarding terms. They are rather different sorts of acting jobs, but they are acting jobs.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,846
    HYUFD said:

    And ten years ago a poll found 53% of voters would allow teachers to use the cane again in school with Conservative voters in particular pro caning

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2011/10/07/should-schoolchildren-be-caned
    It's what we left the EU for.

    That is a remarkably similar number to those who voted Brexit. Perhaps we need a Venn diagram to determine the inclusivity of the two groups.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Selebian said:

    Interesting. I know this was specifically TikTok, but there are some serious points here. An engaged young person could well do more with social media to influence the state of the country than with a single vote - it could be quite sensible for e.g. a Greta Thunberg to choose keeping her social media accounts over her vote to effect change. That, of course, is as long as everyone else gets to vote!

    I understand that in reality it's much more likely that people wish to lol over the latest TikTok sensation than have a vote they likely won't bother to use anyway.
    If people feel their vote is unimportant there is a significant democratic deficit that needs to be addressed. With younger people especially, I do feel that there is a concern that the issues of the elderly are given more weight, culturally and politically, than the issues of the young. We need only look at the seriousness of discourse and policy around climate change, a big issue for younger voters, or "wokeness", an issue most younger people don't care about strongly, as well as the entire economic structure of this country to see that. It should also be concerning to people that the policy proposals favoured by younger voters, presented by Jeremy Corbyn, versus the policy proposals favoured by older voters, presented by May and Johnson, are almost diametrically opposed in a way that hasn't really been the case in the past. A lot of young people (I wouldn't call myself young anymore, but I am in my early 30s with a sister in her early 20s) see many older voters as pulling up the ladder behind them - I can't afford the mortgage my parents got, let alone my grandparents. And the response from a lot of older voters / the press is the idea that "it was bad when I was young, it should always be bad, and it being bad is good for you" despite the fact that it was actually much better in many ways when those people were young.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    eek said:

    Given that we are talking about schools - are secondary school pupil numbers due to rise or fall over the next few years.

    I can't remember where to look for accurate details.

    Births peaked in 2012 and stated seriously falling in 2015;

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/2020

    So that baby boomlet (say 2008- 2015) is starting to leave primary schools and enter secondary schools.

    So all those expanded primary schools we built over the last decade or so are about to become redundant (the final bulge class is leaving our local primary this summer; it's worse in Inner London because having children is now an unaffordable luxury). And secondary schools (where you really don't want to look at the recruitment and training numbers) are in much the same situation as the characters in those videos on those websites.

    When those cohorts hit HE, it's going to be even worse.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478

    Rise but not much further I believe.

    After number of live births fell to a plateau at the turn of the century, it then started rising again in 2003 (so young adults who are now 20) reaching a peak in 2012 (so primary age kids who are now 10).

    Numbers then drifted off and started falling post-2017.

    So I believe senior schools are due a rise in pupils over next few years, primary schools would be due a fall in pupils in next few years though.

    Immigration probably means that the numbers of both will rise though, secondary schools certainly should given a natural bump coming and record migration too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom#Vital_statistics_(1900–2022)
    So this year is the final intake with numbers increasing then a few years with slight drops before they started dropping in 2018 onwards.

    Thanks - I have a reason why I wanted the answer sadly I can't say why but you should be able to guess.
This discussion has been closed.