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LDs 67% favourite in Mid Beds, LAB 88% in Uxbridge & S Ruislip – politicalbetting.com
LDs 67% favourite in Mid Beds, LAB 88% in Uxbridge & S Ruislip – politicalbetting.com
When I went on holiday a week ago there was no hint that we could have three Westminster by-elections on the table on my return. Whatever it is there seems to be a trend of big political developments happening when I’m on holiday and this has become something of a joke amongst the PB team.
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Other than Man City making my youngest extremely happy, has much been happening?
Now, where was I? Ah yes:
First! (oh...)
And this
That is mind blowing
What have we done with the 54 years since Apollo 11?
I guess if we achieve AI then we can say Yeah we did it again
A challenging place for someone already bipolar
It doesn’t matter. It actually makes it better. There are only two exhibitions you really need to see
The Wright Brothers with the actual first plane - utterly spine tingling - and then the NASA space endeavours ending with the actual Apollo 11 and Armstrong’s space suit. They have a video montage of the 1960s culminating in the Eagle has Landed along with Woodstock and Vietnam and the Rolling Stones and JFK dying and the Beatles and Martin Luther King and right behind you is the Apollo capsule
Honestly. Tears were close
Johnson still popular(ish) though. If the by elections are sold as Johnson versus Sunak then a Tory voter strike, in solidarity with Johnson, is possible.
Mid Beds - LD seat for 18 months
Selby - maybe CON hold
Nuclear war is off the table again - for now...
I shall be standing under my discourtesy title of Lord Dingleberry, in the interest of the "Give Psephologists An Even Break" Party.
Allow me to say, I am extremely proud of my alleged Yorkshire roots. Some of my ancestors may have hailed from Crackpot in the North Riding. Or at least I've often heard them referred to, as a bunch of Crackpots.
But I’ve just been to two of the greatest museums on the planet, and the second - Air and Space - probably gave me the most intense “museum experience” of my life. So 🤷♂️
Very glad I came. Very glad. Have no need to return
The LDs have won from as far back as 10%, so even by their standards Selby looks tough on paper, and Labour don't seem to manage quite such dramatic swings so I'd think Selebian has the right of it on that one.
Mid-Bedfordshire looks like a near repeat, on proportions at least, of some of the other big LDs wins from third place, so it makes sense that people would make it a good chance of a LD gain.
And of course any latent Boris supporters will stay at home or vote Labour in Uxbridge to punish Rishi, then there's natural reduction from the Tories being low in the polling, and I'd bet a whole £5 on Labour winning it - the same amount Murray Foote would bet on Sturgeon's innocence.
So we might even get a nice exciting one Con, one Lab, one LD out of it. As londonpubman suggests Mid-Bedfordshire could be a temporary win, like Brecon and Radnorshire.
Frankly, Rishi would take that right now.
It was THE CONCORDE ROOM
Otherwise yes. I see your point. All is not lost
Ditto Taft's (White House) bathtub.
That's how I feel about DC too. I really liked it, it was a bit of a hole, I had a great time, I'm glad I've seen it and I'll probably never go back.
And yet, having a cold beer on the waterfront by the lazy Potomac or sitting in a rooftop bar with the Capitol in the distance as the sun goes down...
All mouth and no trousers...
Mid Bedforshire will be losing Stagsden, Old Warden, and Shefford.
Uxbridge practically looks like it doubles in size, geographically.
He's a passionate remainer anti Tory so he'd tick all necessary boxes.
> Museum of the American Indian
> Museum of the Bible
My understanding is that both are outstanding.
Also why is everything this weird sludgy grey-brown colour, like waste water?
And yet: the museums. You absolutely have to come here for the museums. Unbelievably good
Proto-brutalist style from post-Civil War forward to today.
Much of it best viewed, like Yokes just said, by moonlight. Or at least with a view of the city reflected in the limpid waters of the Potomoc.
By the way, I quite like Foggy Bottom. Not the State Department, or even the hood around it. The name!
No comment except to say that calling Jesus/Christianity “the biggest IP of all time” is the funniest thing a network exec has ever done
https://twitter.com/literyture/status/1667254723416674322?cxt=HHwWpMC-tczVo6MuAAAA
> height limit on buildings = no higher than statue of Liberty atop Capitol (Washington Monument exception).
> need for larger and larger office space for federal government branches, departments, agencies, etc., esp. from New Deal and WW2 forward.
> extreme reluctance & resistance on part of federal depts, etc. to locate OUTSIDE the District of Columbia, or adjacent counties of MD and VA (similar to London?)
> American love of bigness (last but hardly least).
And give yourself at least two full days for the world class museums. As I might have mentioned 🥂🥂
ADDENDUM - BTW, Leon, how are you liking the Metro? Certainly convenient from the Mall to Alexandria.
Speaking of transportation, back in the day, DC had the best taxi cab service I personally ever saw - and I used to DRIVE a cab.
They had a great grid system, which worked well for riders.
AND the cab drivers (virtually all Black when I rode with them) were some of the nicest guys imaginable. Really.
Still remember time, more than half-century ago, when we were on family vacation to Washington, and my Dad left his camera in a taxi. That driver drove around for blocks until he found us, just so he could return it.
Native politeness AND professional pride.
My attempt to recreate Rocky by running up the steps of the Washington Masonic Memorial, less pleasant
Senior Tories may want to hold Selby first, and maybe they will get away with it given that the whole process starts with the Tory chief whip:
https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/by-elections/
"The Chief Whip of the political party whose MP held the vacant seat starts the process of a by-election."
Who moves the writ for a by-election when it's an independent MP's seat that has become vacant? Or for that matter when it's a party's sole MP.
I remembered that driving anywhere in America is easy compared to Eurasia and if I can safely drive right across Yerevan Armenia at rush hour (which I have done) I can probably cope with DC. So far so good
I might stay tomorrow night in Alexandria on my
way out of D.C.
This has been - up to now - an amazing trip. Full of interest. America has problems but it is never boring
And I am now drinking an ice cold Vasen Lager in a downtown bar and it tastes like nectar
For a start it seems the formal rule is that the House may order the speaker to issue a writ via a motion made by 'any member'. Said motion could be debated. Being moved by the whip of the party which last held the seat is simply a convention, and that convention apparently has the government move it if no other member of a party is in the House to move it.
If no other member of the party whose seat has been vacated has been elected, or has taken their seat, the Government moves the writ
I love the Erskine May notes there was a recommendaiton on when a motion for a writ should be moved in 1973, and that this has not been implemented - given how much pruning occurs between editions of EK, else it would be far too long, that says to me clerks and Speakers are trying to subtly remind people it would be a good idea.
https://erskinemay.parliament.uk/section/4915/vacancies-of-seats-during-a-session?highlight=writ
EK isn't as fun now you can search it online instead of having to have a hard copy.
Hence Viscount Thurso - Member House of Lords 1995-1999, Member House of Commons 2001-2015, Member House of Lords 2016.
There have been a handful of others.
https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1667980805551927296
Tim Parlatore interview w/ @jaketapper:
- says "absolutely right" storage was "not secure"
- admits 2 Chinese national intruders at MAL
- admits Indictment strong
- admits allegations really serious
- says kept in dark on moving boxes to avoid searches…
Obviously he will seek to delay it and swamp it with legal issues - it is opening in front of a judge who has tried to do him favours in the past, and got slapped down by the appeals court - but on its face it appears the facts and law are relatively straightforward, so could only be held up so much.
Now, he will say he will run even if sent to prison (I don't think it works timeline wise to be before the election, given when a trial might start, finish, and appeals, even if he were convicted, when only a couple of obdurate jurors might prevent that), but that's not much of a plan. Repeating it is a hoax and double standard will play ell with the party and bring in money, but it's a lot to hinge a campaign on.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/25/politics/mar-a-lago-intruder-chinese-national-sentenced/index.html
He's been selling secrets, hasn't he?
Mary Trump nails it: "I'm a Trump... Everything's about money in this family."
Start listening at 6:10 for context:
https://www.facebook.com/GoodMorningAmerica/videos/mary-trump-describes-family-as-malignantly-dysfunctional/2658708070897460/
List of things Trump has said about his own Cabinet officials:
AUG 2015: “I am going to surround myself with only the best and most serious people. Top of the line professionals.”
Gutless pig
Dumb as a rock
No temperament
Milk toast
He got eaten alive
Couldn’t handle the pressure
Highly unstable nutjob
A fool
Abused staff
Weak and totally ineffective
A lightweight
A disgrace
Dumb southerner
Mentally retarded
Disgraceful
Scared stiff
An idiot
Mr. Magoo
Dumped like a dog
Overrated
No energy
Slow and boring
Disappointing
Fucked it all up
Washed up
Disgruntled boring old fool
Never had a clue
A dope
Liar
Too short
Didn’t look the part
Not tough enough
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1667987347114213376?cxt=HHwWhoC-1e3Q76UuAAAA
Johnson's appeal was limited in 2019, he was toxic in 2022, and he is still toxic now. Some graphs to illustrate each point follow...
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1667956562911019008?s=20
Backlash to Boris Johnson's shock departure is fading, Rishi Sunak is told as whips say the threat of more resignations is receding amid calls for the Conservatives to unite
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12183755/Backlash-Boris-Johnsons-shock-departure-fading-Rishi-Sunak-told.html
The quango which vets appointments to the House of Lords last night confirmed it had blocked half of Boris Johnson’s proposed peerages.
In a rare public intervention, the House of Lords Appointments Commission (Holac) said that eight nominations ‘were not supported by the commission’.
The watchdog said it had ‘received and processed’ all nominations made by the former prime minister in his resignation honours list.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12183217/Lords-committee-reveals-blocked-EIGHT-peerages-nominated-Boris-Johnson.html
Here he is pretending not to know what a Grand Jury is.
Former Vice President Mike Pence called on Attorney General Merrick Garland to publicly justify the federal indictment against former President Donald Trump.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1667709755274428419
Go back a couple of years, and there were enough Boris fans to form a decent, election winning huddle. Being up against Evil Jez helped, but Boris had a sufficient fan club, even if they were deluded stooges.
Because of the two stable opinions thing, his remaining supporters (and they do exist) feel much the same way about him now as then. All that has happened is that a lot of former Boris Backers have jumped ship.
Now the Boris group is small and shrinking, but it's probably still a decent chunk of the Conservative electorate- at least as long as the Mail/Telegraph keep the faith. Not enough for Boris to win (please, not enough for Boris to win) but enough to increase the pain of a Conservative defeat.
So. Is Boris selfish and petulant enough to go out of his way to hurt the prospects of the Conservative Party in 2024, and potentially for a decade after that? My thought is "hell yes, of course he is".
I wonder if we're so used to a temperate climate that the infrastructure isn't really up to it?
Trying again tomorrow...
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1668002084636045313?s=20
"Teenagers would give up the right to vote to keep social media, survey reveals"
https://www.foxnews.com/media/teenagers-right-vote-keep-social-media-survey-reveals
(a) why current MRPs don't pass the sniff test:
https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/05/24/how-grumblers-and-defectors-have-laid-a-trap-for-our-pollsters/
(b) picking up a hint of proportional swing in the locals, and claiming unusualness.
https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1665752008685506560?t=E_TX9eyrE8mFvXpDtVyQQA&s=19
Own take on reading this. Proportional swing could operate against the Tories to some extent at the next election, increasing seat losses a bit, but won't be huge and UNS (plus tactical selection of where to swing) will be the main factor.
Kellner reckoned there was a 0.04% proportional swing against Labour in 2019 for every % of prior vote share on top of UNS, I suspect the Tories could suffer a higher proportional swing next time per % of vote share.
I like the explanation suggested that o a first approximation UNS is caused by swing voters swinging which they do to a similar degree in all constituencies, whilst any additional proportional swing is caused by loyalist desertion which will affect areas with more loyalists.
Freedom and Death (aka Captain Michaelis) by Nikos Kazantzakis
About the 1907 revolt against the Turks. Interesting, one of the best - in more ways than one - character is . . . a Turk.
The Johnstown Flood by David McCollough
Believe it was the first of his many excellent books dealing with various aspects of American history.
He was not obviously a terrorist sympathiser who hung out with antisemites. He promised to break the Brexit deadlock. And - although we didn't know it at the time - his support for Ukraine would be absolutely crucial in helping them resist the Russian invasion in 2022.
But his personal failings were always likely to pose... problems... Like Trump, he seems to believe the rules don't apply to him. (Which is a particular issue if you are insisting everyone else follows draconian rules you introduced.)
https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1667936491752833027
'Those tapes are my tapes!' Trump enraged by Jack Smith's evidence against him
https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-tapes/
Former President Donald Trump on Sunday confirmed the existence of audio recordings that could be used as evidence against him in a case about the mishandling of classified documents.
During an interview on Sunday with host Roger Stone, Trump responded to reports indicating he admitted he did not declassify some documents before leaving office with them. Those recordings are reportedly in the hands of special counsel Jack Smith.
"By the way, the tapes that you read about, those tapes are my tapes," Trump growled. "I gave them very willingly, the tapes."
Trump complained that President Joe Biden "probably doesn't have tapes" incriminating himself.
"I gave them the tapes!" he exclaimed before threatening to release tapes of the FBI searching Mar-a-Lago.
"I have tapes of the FBI during the raid. I didn't put them out because I was asked not to by them," he ranted. "But I have tapes of the raid by FBI. You want to see some tapes? Those are tapes."
It’s going to be another NIMBY by election campaign from them.
https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1667222666808311821?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ