Options
The LAB lead is very steady across the range of pollsters – politicalbetting.com
The LAB lead is very steady across the range of pollsters – politicalbetting.com
The big number to remember when looking at the polls is that the Curtice projection for LAB to secure a majority is a 7% poll vote over the Tories.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Sounds like a really decent human being.
No wonder Dacre doesn't like him
The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.
Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.
In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.
The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.
Ideally he wants a small Labour majority too as if he is reliant on LD support to govern as Cameron was in 2010 this time they will demand a higher price, probably at least PR and the UK returns to the EEA with free movement.
It may well be Welsh Labour MPs and gains from the SNP in Scotland give him that majority even if England doesn't. Of course on many current polls he is heading for a close to 1997 Labour landslide but Sunak does better than his party as preferred PM and the debates could boost him too, as could falling inflation longer term
The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.
Have a nice evening.
xx
And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.
I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.
I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
Do bus riders vote these days?
Yet another passenger discovered today she'd been paying for an £8.60 day ticket when all single journeys are capped at £2, and have been since January.
Have not seen a single notice on a bus about this.
If even regular bus users don't know (and I've met a fair few), how will anyone else find out? Have heard plenty others express astonishment at how cheap it is to get into Toon now, when asked for 2 quid.
This government is utterly useless at trumpeting the positive things it is doing.
Never heard anybody mention politics, though - but then my hearing isn't great, so maybe I'm missing the anti-Tory public mood. Despite that, I agree - I suspect the die is cast.
We might buy Bramley Moore on the cheap to host youth and women's matches.
On this thread I am getting "x mentioned you" notifications in this thread when they haven't at all.
About Everton. Is that possibly because I was tagged in a previous comment on the last thread?
If so, how do I stop it?
It's annoying.
Do you think Liverpool will finish ahead of Newcastle any season in the next ten years? Unlikely isn’t it.
Jack Nicholls’s contract was terminated this month after a complaint prompted an investigation overseen by an independent body.
The inquiry is believed to have uncovered three complainants who claimed to have been touched inappropriately.
One was understood to have been a younger member of staff who was in a relationship with Nicholls, in breach of Formula E rules, while the other two complaints were made by witnesses rather than those affected.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bbc-f1-commentator-jack-nicholls-sacked-formula-e-2023-3bf5rxrw5
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/31/uk-and-us-poised-to-fall-into-recession-as-interest-rates-dampen-growth
But the media are so slow on this! It’s not the boe interest rates that will cause UK recession, but Hunt withdrawing so much help this year simultaneously.
That’s exactly what’s happened in Germany.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/preferences
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion
“Decoding the culture wars”
Bryan Fanning, on contemporary political sociology and public morality;
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/irish-times-inside-politics/id794389685
Worth a listen, imo.
This investigation into Moshiri/Usmanov is great news, wonderfully timed.
Anything that hastens the departure of the most incompetent owner in the division has to be good.
Everton, as a Premier League club with a super funky new City centre ground, would be attractive to a billionaire, even with all the debts.
And it couldn't be any worse run.
EU chief offers Kyiv fast track to bloc membership
04/08/2022
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and an EU delegation traveled to the Ukrainian capital on the first trip by senior European Commission officials since Russia's invasion started.
Are the people mutinous ?
Is it a (drumroll) shellacking.
Add in acquisition costs and a first team squad that needs adding to then Everton aren't that attractive, even before a potential points deduction for breaching FPP.
I remember the summer and autumn of 2010 when it looked my club was heading for administration/bankruptcy, I do not want other fans to go through that. It was stressful.
Is Ukraine joining the EU?
A competent government would have had such a display as a condition of the subsidy.
And since when was a state's robustness antithetical to its corruptness?
I asked my friends in Putney and they confirmed it. So it's true
Some foreign based asset stripper comes in with borrowed money. Repays the loan he took out to buy the club and they help themselves to their own yacht and Ferrari loan by mortgaging the club assets. Then when it all caves in the fans get a transfer embargo and a
15 point deduction. The former owner gets to keep the yacht and the fleet of Ferraris.
Still too much deadwood to come off the wage bill.
I'd rather finance a stadium already more than half built than be thinking about an entirely new one.
Income will skyrocket once it is open.
I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
Q: Who's the second best football team in Liverpool?
A: Liverpool reserves.
Stack Exchange, by far and away the most influential "expert" question and answer site on the internet - and an instructive window on internet society including in its dynamic aspects - is in the process of getting AI-whacked.
Sadly it seems that most of those who until now have been working for the company for free, in some cases for many years, seem to fail to understand what's going on, believing it to come from stupidity.
https://meta.stackexchange.com/questions/389653/blog-post-ceo-update-paving-the-road-forward-with-ai-and-community-at-the-cent
But that isn't what happened at Everton.
That was pure incompetence.
All the buses along the coast were heaving today, through a combination of it being half term, no trains, but mainly the £2 fare for any distance.
Like you, I'm baffled why the government isn't trumpeting this more. It's a great policy. The only one the Tories have had in recent years.
In 2019, there was quite a bit of anti-Corbyn tactical voting. Just unwinding that will be worth a fair few seats to Labour.
They are obviously conflicted. So much that they've extended it twice. Without really mentioning it. It has halved the cost and more of getting to Toon. Places like Berwick become affordable for a family day out.
But I guess it’s like that ability politicians have, finding people, or bumping into people, who just happen to share their worldview.
*turns to camera*
*nods with stoical masculinity*
Yup
The mRNA technology is blooming amazing.
I accept given what was not known, the No because when you look at the projections, based on exponential growth, we were given time after time, that had the assumption of the steps taken built in we just did not get close to the best case scenario that they set out. They were wrong. They were mainly wrong because they assumed exponential growth would continue in the real world far longer than it ever did.
Now both might now be leaning Labour but even Corbyn won Putney
https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1663900062726909952?t=jBJNWTAqk7zMhDrO9cgt2A&s=19
Mike Pence to enter race for White House
https://news.sky.com/story/chris-christie-to-enter-race-to-be-republican-candidate-against-president-biden-for-white-house-12893823
Key to the miscalculation was Brexit’s impact on their party. Since Thatcher, there have been three legs to the Tory stool — the free-marketers, the traditionalist social conservatives and the metropolitan Tories — exemplified by the leadership of David Cameron and George Osborne.
Though this last group was more culturally liberal, economically they were still Thatcherites. They believed in free trade, globalisation, lower taxes to encourage investment and reduced public spending. Before the referendum, the social and economic liberals were broadly aligned.
Brexit smashed this coalition. But Leave liberals were slow to recognise that Brexit was also a revolt against their ideology, delivered by the populist arguments of those who were hardline on immigration, suspicious of big business, keen on culture wars and comfortable with a more interventionist state and better-funded public services. The famous Brexit pledge was, after all, more money for the NHS.
During the referendum itself, the alliance made sense. But once it was over, instead of allying with the globalists and Remainers turned soft-Brexiters, many free-market Leavers made common cause with populists who never shared their economic vision. They believed that maximising “Brexit freedoms” would secure the smaller state.
Key UK service industries — and prosperous southern voters — were sacrificed to a bad trade deal as they built a new Tory electoral coalition. This delivered victory but handed their party to populists and weakened those who shared their economic values. The clues were always there, not least in the openly interventionist Boris Johnson’s “fuck business” outburst. The pandemic destroyed their room for manoeuvre by wrecking the public finances but the pass had already been sold.
Their desperate attempt to regain the initiative was to abandon a core belief in fiscal prudence for the chaos of the Liz Truss government: it shredded the Tory reputation for economic competence and the free-market cause.
But even when Truss used her only party conference speech as leader to rail against the “anti-growth coalition”, she failed to notice it was sitting in front of her, in the rows of Nimbys, immigration hawks and urbanite-hating culture warriors. The party is locked into a low growth economic model and a belief in spending cuts which struggles to be specific.
In retrospect, you could probably have achieved 50% of the reductions in R by closing nightclubs/karaoke bars/live music venues and requiring masks on public transport, while letting people otherwise go about their business.
The limitations on people visiting each other in their homes, or on going outside for a walk, were absolutely indefensible.
(And in between those two there were restrictions of varying degrees of sense.)
To borrow Oscar Wilde’s quip about the death of Little Nell, it would take a heart of stone not to hear the wails of free-market Brexiters without laughing.
Striking up a conversation with a stranger would be considered evidence of being a sociopath or drunk. Or both.