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The LAB lead is very steady across the range of pollsters – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981

    NEW THREAD

  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    DavidL said:

    EPG said:

    As we start Pride Month…

    1. THREAT OF PROSECUTION! The Chief Constable of @HantsPolice has written to us stating that if we post this flag, and it causes anyone anxiety, we will have committed an offence contrary to Communications Act S127 part 2.

    We post today in defiance. Arrest us. Charge us. Or shut up.


    https://twitter.com/wearefaircop/status/1664178763280658432

    [4 images of the new-ish Pride flag that might cause anxiety or distress (sic) ]

    I do think there are better ways to make one's case than putting a swastika over the symbol of a group selected for the concentration camps by the actual Nazis.
    Agreed. It’s offensive and more than a little juvenile, but, frankly, so what? Is it a crime? I hope not.
    Yeah, that is pretty much my view. It is all infantile and provocative it should not be a crime. I although I am not a fanatical TRA that flag is a little embarrassing. The comment from Hants Police is pretty stupid too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    As we start Pride Month…

    1. THREAT OF PROSECUTION! The Chief Constable of @HantsPolice has written to us stating that if we post this flag, and it causes anyone anxiety, we will have committed an offence contrary to Communications Act S127 part 2.

    We post today in defiance. Arrest us. Charge us. Or shut up.


    https://twitter.com/wearefaircop/status/1664178763280658432

    [4 images of the new-ish Pride flag that might cause anxiety or distress (sic) ]

    I do think there are better ways to make one's case than putting a swastika over the symbol of a group selected for the concentration camps by the actual Nazis.
    The swastika is a function of the “improved” pride flag which was originally just the rainbow - as that covered everybody.

    But some decided to “improve” it by adding a black stripe for black people, brown stripe for brown people and baby blue and baby pink stripes for trans people, as they evidently didn’t fall under “everybody”.

    There have been further iterations with a red umbrella for sex workers…and a pi symbol for “minor attracted persons” (paedophiles in old money). This has not been met with universal approval - and this push back is part of that.
    I know you thought that what you were doing was

    "CarlottaVance posted a swastika to demonstrate pushback against inclusion of trans/black/brown people in Pride and futher iterations"

    But what it came across as was

    "CarlottaVance posted a swastika..."

    https://www.thejc.com/news/news/laurence-fox-36condemned-by-holocaust-charities-over-rainbow-flag-swastika-post-7LPEkIJW8JzWfVdipZS1as
    It's gone beyond Mr Fox and it is now seen by some as a pushback against the authoritarian stance taken by TRA elements of the LGBT+ movement, and the idiocy of the police who believe its a criminal offence.

    It would appear only some political commentary is permissible.

    Lets see if the Chief Constable follows through on his threat of arrest.
    He’ll have to arrest an awful lot of people who have retweeted the image

    Just a brief glance at the trans debate on Twitter shows that it has lost none of its ugliness and venom. What a horrible poisonous mess

    I’m still bemused how we ended up here, when ten years ago trans people were generally accepted and everyone seemed to rub along

    What happened? Who did this? Why?

    Was it simply the Chinese and the Russians stirring it all up on Twitter?
    I think it all hinges on the "trapped in the wrong body" question.

    If you believe that this is the condition of trans people, then any attempt to convince them to accept the body they have is oppressive, any delay to medical intervention is cruel, and any attempt to distinguish between people based on biological sex is transphobic.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,694
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Miklosvar said:

    kjh said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
    the mask mandate was ridiculous and cowardly - masks did F all to stop the virus as proved by Scotland having higher rates of infection whilst having a mask mandate when England eventually relaxed it. The mask thig was especially evil when applied in schools
    That is nonsense. Masks are effective at reducing transmission of COVID-19. See, for example, https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2119266119 and https://ami-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1751-7915.13997
    The problem is that people like to look for silver bullets.

    And there are no silver bullets. Mask wearing reduced the spread of Covid.

    Now, did that justify mask mandates beyond a certain point? Almost certainly not. But it's ridiculous to claim that mask wearing did not reduce the spread of a airborne viral infection of the respiratory tract.
    I had an interesting discussion recently with an American professor of biology. He cited the rapid evolution of covid variants, each replacing the last, as one of the best illustrations of evolution and natural selection that one could ask for.

    A secondary thought that arose is this may well explain the fixation on the lab release conspiracy theories abundant on the American right. They don't believe in evolution, therefore covid must have been deliberately constructed by someone.
    Re the last para I hadn't thought of that. I noticed there has been a lot of discussion recently in the media with experts and the consensus was still we don't know which theory of the source is correct. The fact that someone who is not an expert can be so certain (whether right or wrong) is telling.
    The certainty of non-experts tells us - that non-experts are certain.

    The number of Extinction Rebellion people gluing themselves to sporting fixtures has no correlation with the academic truth of Global Warming.

    Just because weird, crazy or evil people adopt a theory, doesn't tell us anything about the theory itself. Rational analysis does that.
    And Bayes' Theorem tells us to have a good look at our priors when a mutant virus arises within a stone's throw of a virus mutating lab.
    Which is true but most novel virus's seem able to emerge without the need for a microbiology lab.

    See SARS, MERS etc.
    A beautifully anti Bayesian comment. Like standing on a battlefield and saying "You say gunshot, but you do realise cardiovascular disease is the commonest cause of death?"
    Nonsense. See my other post. Bayes theorem deals with the increased probability, not certainty.

    By deciding it must be from the lab because a lab is nearby when we know that there are other examples that have nothing to do with a lab is just as daft.

    It would be equally as daft to ignore the lab theory.

    The difference between the two groups of people is that some are open minded and others are certain it came for a lab.
    Sure. Anyone with a 100% belief here, is an idiot. But your criticism doesn't touch anyone who thinks that lab escape is the most likely of the competing theories.
    I'm only critical of those who are absolutely certain when it isn't. The discussion came out of a post by another who was commenting upon the anti evolutionists who can't accept something can evolve and therefore must be a lab leak i.e. nutters.
    As @Miklosvar says, no one is 100% certain. That’s true of anything. We can’t be sure that Them Aliens didn’t come down and give some poor bat soup monger a coronavirus concocted on Uranus

    But the balance of probabilities points very very firmly to a lab leak. That is now undeniable

    In a criminal court I reckon you could now convict “beyond reasonable doubt”. You would certainly win a civil case
    Others disagree. I've moved from thinking it unlikely to have been a lab leak to thinking it likely. I am not sure what type of leak though. I think you believe its a leak of modified virus (i.e. GOF research). I am happy to think thats possible but its also possible that its a leak of a natural virus.

    And lastly the other origin story is also plausible, See MERS, SARS etc etc etc
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour MP Geraint Davies suspended after allegations of 'completely unacceptable behaviour'"

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2023-06-01/labour-mp-suspended-on-allegations-of-unacceptable-behaviour

    Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide!
This discussion has been closed.