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The LAB lead is very steady across the range of pollsters – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,916
edited June 2023 in General
imageThe LAB lead is very steady across the range of pollsters – politicalbetting.com

The big number to remember when looking at the polls is that the Curtice projection for LAB to secure a majority is a 7% poll vote over the Tories.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,309
    The YouGov numbers are far from desperate for the Conservatives.

    The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.

    Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.

    In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.

    The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,491
    edited May 2023
    Starmer certainly needs at least most seats, he certainly doesn't want to rely on the SNP if the Tories win most seats in a hung parliament (but not enough for a majority even with the DUP) with the Nationalists pushing for indyref2.

    Ideally he wants a small Labour majority too as if he is reliant on LD support to govern as Cameron was in 2010 this time they will demand a higher price, probably at least PR and the UK returns to the EEA with free movement.

    It may well be Welsh Labour MPs and gains from the SNP in Scotland give him that majority even if England doesn't. Of course on many current polls he is heading for a close to 1997 Labour landslide but Sunak does better than his party as preferred PM and the debates could boost him too, as could falling inflation longer term
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,763
    Starmer's message on staying out of the SM/CU must be resonating. :)
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,491
    edited May 2023
    stodge said:

    The YouGov numbers are far from desperate for the Conservatives.

    The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.

    Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.

    In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.

    The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.

    Add the Reform total to the Tory total and you get to 34% in England even with zero swingback from Labour, matching Sunak's rating as preferred PM. A 5th of 2019 Tories DKs to squeeze too
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,004
    SKS fans please explain.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,300
    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,300
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    I love buses and public transport.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Steady as she goes for Lab...
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    Or they may have all been telling you what you want to hear because they didn't want to get into a row with someone over politics at 8:10 in the morning... ;)
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,317
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses?

    If not WFH, about three times a month. I don't listen to what the passengers say.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,317
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    I love buses and public transport.
    Other opinions are available
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,760
    edited May 2023
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx


    Do bus riders vote these days?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959
    edited May 2023
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    I do.
    Yet another passenger discovered today she'd been paying for an £8.60 day ticket when all single journeys are capped at £2, and have been since January.
    Have not seen a single notice on a bus about this.
    If even regular bus users don't know (and I've met a fair few), how will anyone else find out? Have heard plenty others express astonishment at how cheap it is to get into Toon now, when asked for 2 quid.
    This government is utterly useless at trumpeting the positive things it is doing.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,109
    edited May 2023
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    Me. I use buses all the time. For two hours today.
    Never heard anybody mention politics, though - but then my hearing isn't great, so maybe I'm missing the anti-Tory public mood. Despite that, I agree - I suspect the die is cast.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.

    The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.

    Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.

    The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.

    It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.

    The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.

    The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.

    It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.

    Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...

    ...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.

    Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/31/treasurys-sanctions-police-reviewing-finances-of-everton-fc-owner-guardian-understands

    Wow, and I thought the Baggies would be the first historically big club to fully implode. It seems Everton might beat us to it. A toffee anyone?
    As someone who deals with OFSI on a regular basis this is the fact that has my eyebrows in orbit.

    However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
    At least Moshiri hasn't helped himself to a shed load of loans against the value of the club payments of which are overdue.

    Everton should at least be saleable.
    The thing is Everton have huge debts.

    Possible points deduction/transfer embargo.

    Also a stadium to finance.
    Their cool new stadium, floating on the front, is going to be fantastic though, you do concede that?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,760
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    I love buses and public transport.
    Other opinions are available
    Albanian cabbies?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,004
    Farooq said:

    Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.

    The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.

    Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.

    The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.

    It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.

    The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.

    The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.

    It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.

    Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...

    ...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.

    Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/31/treasurys-sanctions-police-reviewing-finances-of-everton-fc-owner-guardian-understands

    Wow, and I thought the Baggies would be the first historically big club to fully implode. It seems Everton might beat us to it. A toffee anyone?
    As someone who deals with OFSI on a regular basis this is the fact that has my eyebrows in orbit.

    However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
    At least Moshiri hasn't helped himself to a shed load of loans against the value of the club payments of which are overdue.

    Everton should at least be saleable.
    The thing is Everton have huge debts.

    Possible points deduction/transfer embargo.

    Also a stadium to finance.
    Their cool new stadium, floating on the front, is going to be fantastic though, you do concede that?
    Liverpool could take over it after Everton get wound up. Anfield 2.0
    Nah, we're going to have 61,000 capacity at Anfield at the start of the new season.

    We might buy Bramley Moore on the cheap to host youth and women's matches.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,763
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    One of the most inexplicable things was the USA keeping their arbitrary ban on entry from Europe and some other countries throughout the whole pandemic. Would it have been that difficult to update it like every other country?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    I do.
    Yet another passenger discovered today she'd been paying for an £8.60 day ticket when all single journeys are capped at £2, and have been since January.
    Have not seen a single notice on a bus about this.
    If even regular bus users don't know (and I've met a fair few), how will anyone else find out? Have heard plenty others express astonishment at how cheap it is to get into Toon now, when asked for 2 quid.
    This government is utterly useless at trumpeting the positive things it is doing.
    I haven’t been on a Pleb Wagon in London for a long time, but needed to use them a lot in Yorkshire growing up. Last time I got on a bus two people in front of me speaking no English got chucked off trying to buy a ticket in cash, so I bought machine tickets for them using my phone.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    I love buses and public transport.
    Not as much as me :sunglasses:
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx


    Do bus riders vote these days?
    Not if Rees-Mogg has any say in it....
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,451
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    I was on two this evening. Both fucking red
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.

    The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.

    Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.

    The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.

    It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.

    The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.

    The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.

    It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.

    Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...

    ...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.

    Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/31/treasurys-sanctions-police-reviewing-finances-of-everton-fc-owner-guardian-understands

    Wow, and I thought the Baggies would be the first historically big club to fully implode. It seems Everton might beat us to it. A toffee anyone?
    As someone who deals with OFSI on a regular basis this is the fact that has my eyebrows in orbit.

    However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
    At least Moshiri hasn't helped himself to a shed load of loans against the value of the club payments of which are overdue.

    Everton should at least be saleable.
    The thing is Everton have huge debts.

    Possible points deduction/transfer embargo.

    Also a stadium to finance.
    Their cool new stadium, floating on the front, is going to be fantastic though, you do concede that?
    I would ask, why someone from Yorkshire supports a side in Lancashire, a team outside of Yorkshire. But truth is, after looking for the York result I look for the Newcastle one.

    Do you think Liverpool will finish ahead of Newcastle any season in the next ten years? Unlikely isn’t it.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959
    Help needed.
    On this thread I am getting "x mentioned you" notifications in this thread when they haven't at all.
    About Everton. Is that possibly because I was tagged in a previous comment on the last thread?
    If so, how do I stop it?
    It's annoying.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,004
    The voice of the BBC’s Formula One coverage has been sacked from his lead commentary role on Formula E, a sister championship, for alleged inappropriate behaviour, The Times has learnt.

    Jack Nicholls’s contract was terminated this month after a complaint prompted an investigation overseen by an independent body.

    The inquiry is believed to have uncovered three complainants who claimed to have been touched inappropriately.

    One was understood to have been a younger member of staff who was in a relationship with Nicholls, in breach of Formula E rules, while the other two complaints were made by witnesses rather than those affected.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bbc-f1-commentator-jack-nicholls-sacked-formula-e-2023-3bf5rxrw5
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    It looks like Sunak and Hunt will get their recession.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/31/uk-and-us-poised-to-fall-into-recession-as-interest-rates-dampen-growth

    But the media are so slow on this! It’s not the boe interest rates that will cause UK recession, but Hunt withdrawing so much help this year simultaneously.

    That’s exactly what’s happened in Germany.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,004
    dixiedean said:

    Help needed.
    On this thread I am getting "x mentioned you" notifications in this thread when they haven't at all.
    About Everton. Is that possibly because I was tagged in a previous comment on the last thread?
    If so, how do I stop it?
    It's annoying.

    Change the settings here.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/preferences
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited May 2023
    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2023
    At times interesting, at times tedious podcast from the Irish Times.

    “Decoding the culture wars”

    Bryan Fanning, on contemporary political sociology and public morality;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/irish-times-inside-politics/id794389685

    Worth a listen, imo.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,763
    dixiedean said:

    Help needed.
    On this thread I am getting "x mentioned you" notifications in this thread when they haven't at all.
    About Everton. Is that possibly because I was tagged in a previous comment on the last thread?
    If so, how do I stop it?
    It's annoying.

    You're mentioned at the beginning of this thread, so as long as nobody replies to it, they will stop.
    Farooq said:

    Sorry @ dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.

    The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.

    Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.

    The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.

    It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.

    The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.

    The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.

    It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.

    Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...

    ...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.

    Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/31/treasurys-sanctions-police-reviewing-finances-of-everton-fc-owner-guardian-understands

    Wow, and I thought the Baggies would be the first historically big club to fully implode. It seems Everton might beat us to it. A toffee anyone?
    As someone who deals with OFSI on a regular basis this is the fact that has my eyebrows in orbit.

    However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
    At least Moshiri hasn't helped himself to a shed load of loans against the value of the club payments of which are overdue.

    Everton should at least be saleable.
    The thing is Everton have huge debts.

    Possible points deduction/transfer embargo.

    Also a stadium to finance.
    Their cool new stadium, floating on the front, is going to be fantastic though, you do concede that?
    Liverpool could take over it after Everton get wound up. Anfield 2.0
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959
    By contrast with TSE.
    This investigation into Moshiri/Usmanov is great news, wonderfully timed.
    Anything that hastens the departure of the most incompetent owner in the division has to be good.
    Everton, as a Premier League club with a super funky new City centre ground, would be attractive to a billionaire, even with all the debts.
    And it couldn't be any worse run.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,763
    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-eu-chief-offers-kyiv-fast-track-to-membership/a-61409635

    EU chief offers Kyiv fast track to bloc membership
    04/08/2022

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and an EU delegation traveled to the Ukrainian capital on the first trip by senior European Commission officials since Russia's invasion started.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    Interesting change since 2005 when Labour won a 66 seat majority with a lead of just 3%.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    The YouGov numbers are far from desperate for the Conservatives.

    The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.

    Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.

    In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.

    The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.

    Add the Reform total to the Tory total and you get to 34% in England even with zero swingback from Labour, matching Sunak's rating as preferred PM. A 5th of 2019 Tories DKs to squeeze too
    trouble is Sunak needs to do something to get people who are going to vote reform (me included) to vote tory- The tories seem to be slither less statist than the other two parties .Given the state collects the highest proportion in tax than ever this is not something i am minded to award with a vote in favour.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,203
    ping said:

    At times interesting, at times tedious podcast from the Irish Times.

    “Decoding the culture wars”

    Bryan Fanning, on contemporary political sociology and public morality;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/irish-times-inside-politics/id794389685

    Worth a listen, imo.

    The Irish Times is like an even more puritanical version of The Guardian
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705
    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,027
    dixiedean said:


    Yet another passenger discovered today she'd been paying for an £8.60 day ticket when all single journeys are capped at £2, and have been since January.
    Have not seen a single notice on a bus about this.

    The ones around here (Cambridge) have an "All single fares 2 pounds or less" on the digital display on the front of the bus (alternating with the bus number/destination, I think).
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,556
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    Is the mood anger.

    Are the people mutinous ?

    Is it a (drumroll) shellacking.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,556

    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
    It may be a corrupt place but it is our corrupt place.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,004
    dixiedean said:

    By contrast with TSE.
    This investigation into Moshiri/Usmanov is great news, wonderfully timed.
    Anything that hastens the departure of the most incompetent owner in the division has to be good.
    Everton, as a Premier League club with a super funky new City centre ground, would be attractive to a billionaire, even with all the debts.
    And it couldn't be any worse run.

    That stadium hasn't been fully financed.

    Add in acquisition costs and a first team squad that needs adding to then Everton aren't that attractive, even before a potential points deduction for breaching FPP.

    I remember the summer and autumn of 2010 when it looked my club was heading for administration/bankruptcy, I do not want other fans to go through that. It was stressful.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,451
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
    It's certainly not in a position to meet the accession criteria.
    I'm in favour of the EU offering the prospect. Hopefully when this war is over Ukraine can work on its institutions and build a more robust state, with the carrot of EU membership as the reward.
    Ukraine needs to stop being a Turkey, EU-wise?

    Is Ukraine joining the EU?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
    Would you say it's more corrupt than your Russian friends?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959
    pm215 said:

    dixiedean said:


    Yet another passenger discovered today she'd been paying for an £8.60 day ticket when all single journeys are capped at £2, and have been since January.
    Have not seen a single notice on a bus about this.

    The ones around here (Cambridge) have an "All single fares 2 pounds or less" on the digital display on the front of the bus (alternating with the bus number/destination, I think).
    Do they? So it's down to the company?
    A competent government would have had such a display as a condition of the subsidy.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,796

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
    It's certainly not in a position to meet the accession criteria.
    I'm in favour of the EU offering the prospect. Hopefully when this war is over Ukraine can work on its institutions and build a more robust state, with the carrot of EU membership as the reward.
    Ukraine needs to stop being a Turkey, EU-wise?

    Is Ukraine joining the EU?
    "Ukraine is joining the EU. Brtiain's new border is with Transnistria!"
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
    It's certainly not in a position to meet the accession criteria.
    I'm in favour of the EU offering the prospect. Hopefully when this war is over Ukraine can work on its institutions and build a more robust state, with the carrot of EU membership as the reward.
    The EU should assess other people's corruptness? Okayyy...
    And since when was a state's robustness antithetical to its corruptness?
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705

    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
    Would you say it's more corrupt than your Russian friends?
    what?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,321
    Is there a scientific name for the juice you get out of blisters when you burst them? ;)
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    I too think the Tories are finished.

    I asked my friends in Putney and they confirmed it. So it's true
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,760
    edited May 2023
    ...

    dixiedean said:

    By contrast with TSE.
    This investigation into Moshiri/Usmanov is great news, wonderfully timed.
    Anything that hastens the departure of the most incompetent owner in the division has to be good.
    Everton, as a Premier League club with a super funky new City centre ground, would be attractive to a billionaire, even with all the debts.
    And it couldn't be any worse run.

    That stadium hasn't been fully financed.

    Add in acquisition costs and a first team squad that needs adding to then Everton aren't that attractive, even before a potential points deduction for breaching FPP.

    I remember the summer and autumn of 2010 when it looked my club was heading for administration/bankruptcy, I do not want other fans to go through that. It was stressful.
    The oversight by the football authorities is shocking.

    Some foreign based asset stripper comes in with borrowed money. Repays the loan he took out to buy the club and they help themselves to their own yacht and Ferrari loan by mortgaging the club assets. Then when it all caves in the fans get a transfer embargo and a
    15 point deduction. The former owner gets to keep the yacht and the fleet of Ferraris.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959

    dixiedean said:

    By contrast with TSE.
    This investigation into Moshiri/Usmanov is great news, wonderfully timed.
    Anything that hastens the departure of the most incompetent owner in the division has to be good.
    Everton, as a Premier League club with a super funky new City centre ground, would be attractive to a billionaire, even with all the debts.
    And it couldn't be any worse run.

    That stadium hasn't been fully financed.

    Add in acquisition costs and a first team squad that needs adding to then Everton aren't that attractive, even before a potential points deduction for breaching FPP.

    I remember the summer and autumn of 2010 when it looked my club was heading for administration/bankruptcy, I do not want other fans to go through that. It was stressful.
    Acquisition costs would be minimal in a forced sale. Playing squad? A great deal of that turns on the fitness of DCL. With him we're mid table. Particularly with Dyche, the defence is sound.
    Still too much deadwood to come off the wage bill.
    I'd rather finance a stadium already more than half built than be thinking about an entirely new one.
    Income will skyrocket once it is open.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,143
    Farooq said:

    Sorry @dixiedean but I think this means Everton are fucked, even more so than if you were relegated.

    The Treasury’s sanctions police have been reviewing the finances of the Everton Football Club owner, Farhad Moshiri, the Guardian understands.

    Moshiri appears to have become a person of interest to the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) because of his links to Alisher Usmanov, the Russian-Uzbek billionaire who was sanctioned by the UK, the EU and the US after last year’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Usmanov has also been barred from entering the UK since September 2021 after his presence was “not deemed conducive to the public good”.

    The apparent interest in Moshiri coincides with months of reporting by the Guardian, which has raised questions about the influence Usmanov has exerted over Moshiri and the Premier League club, including how the Russian tycoon came to attend job interviews with a series of prospective Everton managers before March 2022.

    It also follows a Guardian report that revealed how the club’s auditor, BDO, stepped away from signing off the club’s accounts last year – a decision sources said was related to the ownership of the Premier League team.

    The Guardian understands that BDO’s concerns led to OFSI being notified about Moshiri, who has hired an expert sanctions lawyer at Peters & Peters – one of the UK’s largest law firms – according to correspondence sent to the Guardian on Moshiri’s behalf.

    The news of OFSI’s apparent interest in Moshiri’s finances has emerged as the football team narrowly avoided relegation from the Premier League and while Moshiri is attempting to find investment to bankroll the club and complete its new stadium.

    It is understood that an investment offer on the table would result in Moshiri – who is estimated to have ploughed £750m into Everton – losing control of the club without being paid a penny, according to sources close to the negotiations.

    Any lack of payment to Moshiri could raise questions about whether Everton is being treated in a similar manner to Chelsea FC when it was acquired from the sanctioned oligarch Roman Abramovich last year. Abramovich was prevented by the UK government from benefiting financially from the sale of the London club...

    ...However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.

    Moshiri declined to comment on OFSI’s apparent interest in his finances or the status of his UK bank account. The Treasury said that neither it nor OFSI commented on individual cases.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/may/31/treasurys-sanctions-police-reviewing-finances-of-everton-fc-owner-guardian-understands

    Wow, and I thought the Baggies would be the first historically big club to fully implode. It seems Everton might beat us to it. A toffee anyone?
    As someone who deals with OFSI on a regular basis this is the fact that has my eyebrows in orbit.

    However, the Guardian understands that Moshiri’s UK bank closed his account last year, seemingly because of his connections to Usmanov.
    At least Moshiri hasn't helped himself to a shed load of loans against the value of the club payments of which are overdue.

    Everton should at least be saleable.
    The thing is Everton have huge debts.

    Possible points deduction/transfer embargo.

    Also a stadium to finance.
    Their cool new stadium, floating on the front, is going to be fantastic though, you do concede that?
    Liverpool could take over it after Everton get wound up. Anfield 2.0
    And then the old joke might actually become true:

    Q: Who's the second best football team in Liverpool?

    A: Liverpool reserves.
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Off-topic but many here are interested in the implications of AI, so here goes...

    Stack Exchange, by far and away the most influential "expert" question and answer site on the internet - and an instructive window on internet society including in its dynamic aspects - is in the process of getting AI-whacked.

    Sadly it seems that most of those who until now have been working for the company for free, in some cases for many years, seem to fail to understand what's going on, believing it to come from stupidity.

    https://meta.stackexchange.com/questions/389653/blog-post-ceo-update-paving-the-road-forward-with-ai-and-community-at-the-cent
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    Is the mood anger.

    Are the people mutinous ?

    Is it a (drumroll) shellacking.
    I am not on buses often but I have never heard anyone on one even mentioning politics.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
    the mask mandate was ridiculous and cowardly - masks did F all to stop the virus as proved by Scotland having higher rates of infection whilst having a mask mandate when England eventually relaxed it. The mask thig was especially evil when applied in schools
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959

    ...

    dixiedean said:

    By contrast with TSE.
    This investigation into Moshiri/Usmanov is great news, wonderfully timed.
    Anything that hastens the departure of the most incompetent owner in the division has to be good.
    Everton, as a Premier League club with a super funky new City centre ground, would be attractive to a billionaire, even with all the debts.
    And it couldn't be any worse run.

    That stadium hasn't been fully financed.

    Add in acquisition costs and a first team squad that needs adding to then Everton aren't that attractive, even before a potential points deduction for breaching FPP.

    I remember the summer and autumn of 2010 when it looked my club was heading for administration/bankruptcy, I do not want other fans to go through that. It was stressful.
    The oversight by the football authorities is shocking.

    Some foreign based assett stripper comes in with borrowed money. Repays the loan he took out to buy the club and they help themselves to their own yacht and Ferrari loan by mortgaging the club assets. Then when it all caves in the fans get a transfer embargo and a
    15 point deduction. The former owner gets to keep the yacht and the fleet of Ferraris.
    That's true.
    But that isn't what happened at Everton.
    That was pure incompetence.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,109
    edited May 2023
    dixiedean said:

    pm215 said:

    dixiedean said:


    Yet another passenger discovered today she'd been paying for an £8.60 day ticket when all single journeys are capped at £2, and have been since January.
    Have not seen a single notice on a bus about this.

    The ones around here (Cambridge) have an "All single fares 2 pounds or less" on the digital display on the front of the bus (alternating with the bus number/destination, I think).
    Do they? So it's down to the company?
    A competent government would have had such a display as a condition of the subsidy.
    Where I am, everybody pays by tapping their card, and you're charged £2, so it's working well.
    All the buses along the coast were heaving today, through a combination of it being half term, no trains, but mainly the £2 fare for any distance.
    Like you, I'm baffled why the government isn't trumpeting this more. It's a great policy. The only one the Tories have had in recent years.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,669
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting change since 2005 when Labour won a 66 seat majority with a lead of just 3%.

    Partly Scotland, partly vote distribution.

    In 2019, there was quite a bit of anti-Corbyn tactical voting. Just unwinding that will be worth a fair few seats to Labour.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,705

    dixiedean said:

    pm215 said:

    dixiedean said:


    Yet another passenger discovered today she'd been paying for an £8.60 day ticket when all single journeys are capped at £2, and have been since January.
    Have not seen a single notice on a bus about this.

    The ones around here (Cambridge) have an "All single fares 2 pounds or less" on the digital display on the front of the bus (alternating with the bus number/destination, I think).
    Do they? So it's down to the company?
    A competent government would have had such a display as a condition of the subsidy.
    Where I am, everybody pays by tapping their card, and you're charged £2, so it's working well.
    All the buses along the coast were heaving today, through a combination of it being half term, no trains, but mainly the £2 fare for any distance.
    Like you, I'm baffled why the government isn't trumpeting this more. It's a great policy. The only one the Tories have had in recent years.
    yes one of the better uses of taxpayer money . Especially as it benefits younger folk rather than pensioners
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959

    dixiedean said:

    pm215 said:

    dixiedean said:


    Yet another passenger discovered today she'd been paying for an £8.60 day ticket when all single journeys are capped at £2, and have been since January.
    Have not seen a single notice on a bus about this.

    The ones around here (Cambridge) have an "All single fares 2 pounds or less" on the digital display on the front of the bus (alternating with the bus number/destination, I think).
    Do they? So it's down to the company?
    A competent government would have had such a display as a condition of the subsidy.
    Where I am, everybody pays by tapping their card, and you're charged £2, so it's working well.
    All the buses along the coast were heaving today, through a combination of it being half term, no trains, but mainly the £2 fare for any distance.
    Like you, I'm baffled why the government isn't trumpeting this more. It's a great policy. The only one the Tories have had in recent years.
    So great they took Burnham to court to stop it. Lost. Then brought it in nationwide.
    They are obviously conflicted. So much that they've extended it twice. Without really mentioning it. It has halved the cost and more of getting to Toon. Places like Berwick become affordable for a family day out.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,109
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
    Perhaps 'we never got near a collapse of the hospital system' precisely because the restrictions put in place were effective in reducing the spread of the virus?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,556
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    Is the mood anger.

    Are the people mutinous ?

    Is it a (drumroll) shellacking.
    I am not on buses often but I have never heard anyone on one even mentioning politics.
    I use them in Durham as they are pretty good. I never have either.

    But I guess it’s like that ability politicians have, finding people, or bumping into people, who just happen to share their worldview.
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    The parties should all strike a deal with each other to minimise their expenditure on campaigning, then, if it won't change anything. One can assume too that the eve-of-election polls, which will be the same as the polls now, will be highly accurate predictors. Let's sell volatility and make a fortune. Seriously if I wanted to make a volatility wager I'd do the opposite.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,175
    Turns out I might be going, on a professional basis, to Ukraine - in July

    *turns to camera*

    *nods with stoical masculinity*

    Yup
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Wes Streeting simply has to be the next Labour leader.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,760
    Leon said:

    Turns out I might be going, on a professional basis, to Ukraine - in July

    *turns to camera*

    *nods with stoical masculinity*

    Yup

    What colour is the boat house at Hereford?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228

    I too think the Tories are finished.

    I asked my friends in Putney and they confirmed it. So it's true

    Putney being the only seat that went from Tory to Labour at the last election, lol.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,760

    Wes Streeting simply has to be the next Labour leader.

    Has he started the procedure yet? The next leader has to be a lady!
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,669
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
    I suspect the big difference for next time is that we can be much more optimistic that a good vaccine can be got into people's arms very quickly. That will change the calculations about lockdown. (Part of the logic of the Swedish approach was that a vaccine would be several years away.)

    The mRNA technology is blooming amazing.
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Andy_JS said:

    I too think the Tories are finished.

    I asked my friends in Putney and they confirmed it. So it's true

    Putney being the only seat that went from Tory to Labour at the last election, lol.
    That was the point.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
    Perhaps 'we never got near a collapse of the hospital system' precisely because the restrictions put in place were effective in reducing the spread of the virus?
    No because when you look at the projections, based on exponential growth, we were given time after time, that had the assumption of the steps taken built in we just did not get close to the best case scenario that they set out. They were wrong. They were mainly wrong because they assumed exponential growth would continue in the real world far longer than it ever did.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,457
    edited May 2023

    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
    Would you say it's more corrupt than your Russian friends?
    About the same in my experience with everyone at every level on the take. Although Ukraine was significantly poorer even before it got fucked up and depopulated.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,491
    Andy_JS said:

    I too think the Tories are finished.

    I asked my friends in Putney and they confirmed it. So it's true

    Putney being the only seat that went from Tory to Labour at the last election, lol.
    Indeed, if it was Horse's friends in Bishop Auckland or Dover he might have more of a point.

    Now both might now be leaning Labour but even Corbyn won Putney
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Can nobody seriously tell I was joking, FFS!
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    Wes Streeting simply has to be the next Labour leader.

    Has he started the procedure yet? The next leader has to be a lady!
    Bollocks. It must be Wes.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,760

    Wes Streeting simply has to be the next Labour leader.

    Has he started the procedure yet? The next leader has to be a lady!
    Bollocks. It must be Wes.
    Indeed, they must be removed first.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,556

    Wes Streeting simply has to be the next Labour leader.

    He’s lost the support of the EverydoctorUK bunch who flogged masks and pens to save rNHS, so possibly not.
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    Wes Streeting simply has to be the next Labour leader.

    Has he started the procedure yet? The next leader has to be a lady!
    Bollocks. It must be Wes.
    Indeed, they must be removed first.
    Pete I am crying!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    edited May 2023

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
    I suspect the big difference for next time is that we can be much more optimistic that a good vaccine can be got into people's arms very quickly. That will change the calculations about lockdown. (Part of the logic of the Swedish approach was that a vaccine would be several years away.)

    The mRNA technology is blooming amazing.
    Absolutely. The huge boost that technology got from Covid is one of the few clear benefits. The fact that it was possible to design and manufacture a vaccine based on a computer model without even any of the virus to work on still blows my mind.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,321
    Penddu2 said:

    Is there a scientific name for the juice you get out of blisters when you burst them? ;)

    Carling
    That... was a brilliant answer. You win PB today.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,736
    stodge said:

    The YouGov numbers are far from desperate for the Conservatives.

    The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.

    Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.

    In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.

    The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.

    Interesting article in the FT on why Tories are so miserable, having jettisoned Thatcherism for a mess of Brexit pottage.

    https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1663900062726909952?t=jBJNWTAqk7zMhDrO9cgt2A&s=19
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,228
    edited May 2023
    I'm sure it was warmer than this on Christmas Day. (Checks data). https://world-weather.info/forecast/united_kingdom/london/december-2022/
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,016

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
    Perhaps 'we never got near a collapse of the hospital system' precisely because the restrictions put in place were effective in reducing the spread of the virus?
    This type of argument leads me to the point of view that Covid may well have been an episode of mass psychosis and delusion.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,233

    Is there a scientific name for the juice you get out of blisters when you burst them? ;)

    Not sure - but I used to work with a woman who had a kind of fetish for blisters (and any kind of 'puss' spots). Bursting them was her utmost pleasure. Other than that - straight down the line puritan.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,736
    Leon said:

    Turns out I might be going, on a professional basis, to Ukraine - in July

    *turns to camera*

    *nods with stoical masculinity*

    Yup

    I would keep quiet about your Putin-manlove, unless of course visiting the occupied bits.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,004
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    The YouGov numbers are far from desperate for the Conservatives.

    The 2019 Conservative vote is splitting 45% Conservative, 21% Don't Know ,11% Labour and 9% Reform. That 21% DK represents 9% of the total electorate so get most of those back and the Conservative VI is back into the low 30s. That's a big IF as @MoonRabbit might say.

    Among the 65+ age group (excluding the DKs), the Conservatives lead 50-23 with Reform on 12. In 2019, this age group split 64-17 so that's only a 10% swing to Labour in the largest Conservative-voting group.

    In England, the split is 45-26-12 with Reform on 8 and Green on 7. That equates to a 16% swing in England from Conservative to Labour. That would mean over 200 Conservative MPs losing their seats before we even consider tactical voting.

    The hope for the Conservatives must be to try to claw the DKs back into the loyal camp but the gap (especially in England) remains large for all the older voters seem to be moving back slowly into the Conservative camp but among the largest age group (the 25-49 year olds), Labour enjoys a massive lead.

    Interesting article in the FT on why Tories are so miserable, having jettisoned Thatcherism for a mess of Brexit pottage.

    https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1663900062726909952?t=jBJNWTAqk7zMhDrO9cgt2A&s=19
    This bit.

    Key to the miscalculation was Brexit’s impact on their party. Since Thatcher, there have been three legs to the Tory stool — the free-marketers, the traditionalist social conservatives and the metropolitan Tories — exemplified by the leadership of David Cameron and George Osborne.

    Though this last group was more culturally liberal, economically they were still Thatcherites. They believed in free trade, globalisation, lower taxes to encourage investment and reduced public spending. Before the referendum, the social and economic liberals were broadly aligned.

    Brexit smashed this coalition. But Leave liberals were slow to recognise that Brexit was also a revolt against their ideology, delivered by the populist arguments of those who were hardline on immigration, suspicious of big business, keen on culture wars and comfortable with a more interventionist state and better-funded public services. The famous Brexit pledge was, after all, more money for the NHS.

    During the referendum itself, the alliance made sense. But once it was over, instead of allying with the globalists and Remainers turned soft-Brexiters, many free-market Leavers made common cause with populists who never shared their economic vision. They believed that maximising “Brexit freedoms” would secure the smaller state.

    Key UK service industries — and prosperous southern voters — were sacrificed to a bad trade deal as they built a new Tory electoral coalition. This delivered victory but handed their party to populists and weakened those who shared their economic values. The clues were always there, not least in the openly interventionist Boris Johnson’s “fuck business” outburst. The pandemic destroyed their room for manoeuvre by wrecking the public finances but the pass had already been sold.

    Their desperate attempt to regain the initiative was to abandon a core belief in fiscal prudence for the chaos of the Liz Truss government: it shredded the Tory reputation for economic competence and the free-market cause.

    But even when Truss used her only party conference speech as leader to rail against the “anti-growth coalition”, she failed to notice it was sitting in front of her, in the rows of Nimbys, immigration hawks and urbanite-hating culture warriors. The party is locked into a low growth economic model and a belief in spending cuts which struggles to be specific.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,300
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I'm "like farming", so I thought I'd post it again:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesperson says all of the former PM’s WhatsApps and notebooks requested by Covid Inquiry have been handed to Cabinet Office in full.

    Now up to Cabinet Office to hand them over to Inquiry or not. Johnson urges them to do so. Deadline 4pm tomorrow.


    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1663934293498908672

    From a political betting view point, Primeminister Wallace or Mourdant might be close now.

    Sunak might be toast. He is already in a very weak position. With Tories on 28% and slaughtered in the locals - Sunak’s WhatsAppGate could be about to finish him. The second Tory PM this parliament brought down by covid.

    A worry for Labour as they clearly have Sunak beaten, sub 200 Tory seats even. But PM Penny might trump Labour appeals for a fresh change.

    Penny will come across as more centre ground to voters than the increasingly right wing Starmer front bench.

    Sunak actually polls better than his party, especially with under 50s and urban professionals.

    Mordaunt is too woke for the party membership as leader.

    I doubt the whatsapp messages will make the slightest difference to Sunak's position, indeed Tory and RefUK voters think we locked down too early and too long if anything
    With the benefit of hindsight, which I fully accept was not available at the time and the risks were very difficult to calculate, I think it is far from clear that we should ever have locked down at all. Protected vulnerable groups, certainly. Ensured proper protection for medical and care staff beyond doubt. But closing schools, factories, pubs, restaurants, etc. I think it was a mistake now.
    The problem is, of course, that we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We had terrible scenes coming out of Northern Italy and New York. We had stories of ambulances running through the night.

    And we knew very little of successful treatment methods, and had little idea when - or even if - a vaccine would be forthcoming.

    I don't blame the government for the initial lockdown.

    I do blame them for the severity of the restrictions, and the length of time they went on for, despite all the evidence that we were getting on top of the disease. It is an absolute disgrace that, even though we had a fantastic headstart with the vaccine roll out, that we lagged so many of our European peers for the removal of restrictions.
    Yes, I accept that this is with hindsight. We never got near a collapse of the hospital system, we never used the nightingale hospitals, the projections the government were being given were alarming but entirely wrong.
    I accept given what was not known, the first lockdown was probably inevitable but I would still want the inquiry to look at whether it was in fact a good idea and whether we should ever do the like again faced with anything similar. The subsequent lockdowns were increasingly bizarre.
    There was no subtlety in the UK government's response; no assessment of what measures added little value, while imposing enormous restrictions on personal freedoms.

    In retrospect, you could probably have achieved 50% of the reductions in R by closing nightclubs/karaoke bars/live music venues and requiring masks on public transport, while letting people otherwise go about their business.

    The limitations on people visiting each other in their homes, or on going outside for a walk, were absolutely indefensible.

    (And in between those two there were restrictions of varying degrees of sense.)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,004
    That FT article has the best opening to an article all year.

    To borrow Oscar Wilde’s quip about the death of Little Nell, it would take a heart of stone not to hear the wails of free-market Brexiters without laughing.
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,233

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    I’ve got this feeling, all those promises to Ukraine to fast track their NATO and EU membership are going to sound horriblyhollow in 10-15 years time ☹️

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/31/macron-to-call-for-european-strategic-awakening-after-ukraine-invasion

    Who promised those things?
    Ukraine is a pretty corrupt place
    It's certainly not in a position to meet the accession criteria.
    I'm in favour of the EU offering the prospect. Hopefully when this war is over Ukraine can work on its institutions and build a more robust state, with the carrot of EU membership as the reward.
    Ukraine needs to stop being a Turkey, EU-wise?

    Is Ukraine joining the EU?
    It's fairly easy to imagine a twist of rhetoric that could have had a 'Breaking Point' poster about Ukraine rather than Turkey. Not quite so 'obviously foreign' of course (in billboard terms) - but not beyond imagining.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,491
    He will start by targeting Iowa evangelicals
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,406
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    I wonder how many other pb'ers regularly use buses? I was on a couple today, and they're great for litmus tests of public mood.

    The die is cast. People have made up their minds and the polls will change very little right up until next year's General Election.

    Have a nice evening.

    xx

    Is the mood anger.

    Are the people mutinous ?

    Is it a (drumroll) shellacking.
    I am not on buses often but I have never heard anyone on one even mentioning politics.
    I use the tube every day, buses quite often - it’s the quick way to get about in central London.

    Striking up a conversation with a stranger would be considered evidence of being a sociopath or drunk. Or both.
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    HYUFD said:

    He will start by targeting Iowa evangelicals
    On the basis that where go God bothering farmers, so goes the nation.
This discussion has been closed.