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The new coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    Dura_Ace said:

    The cost doesn't matter to the end user though as the best weapon in any particular situation is the one you have. The RAF put 7 x Paveway IV on an ISIS 'lair' in Iraq last week. By the time you've added in the Typhoon and tanker hours you're probably looking at half a million quid. Absolutely nobody involved ever hesitated for one second to evaluate if this was the best possible use of £500,000 of tax payers' cash.
    Cost matters for any conflict like Ukraine where sustainability of munition supply becomes a factor. And it hasn’t stopped us sending Storm Shadows at c.£1m a unit (the fact we’ve got so many sitting in the shelf, we don’t use them very often, and it costs to keep them there is also a factor.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Nigelb said:

    Cost matters for any conflict like Ukraine where sustainability of munition supply becomes a factor. And it hasn’t stopped us sending Storm Shadows at c.£1m a unit (the fact we’ve got so many sitting in the shelf, we don’t use them very often, and it costs to keep them there is also a factor.)
    Cost does get factored in during procurement. Hence hi-lo mixes - NLAW and Javelin. The Charlie G* is making a comeback on the basis of ultra low cost per round.

    *in the cadets, one lucky soul was allowed to fire a round. He was concussed for about a week.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,145
    Nigelb said:

    Cost matters for any conflict like Ukraine where sustainability of munition supply becomes a factor. And it hasn’t stopped us sending Storm Shadows at c.£1m a unit (the fact we’ve got so many sitting in the shelf, we don’t use them very often, and it costs to keep them there is also a factor.)
    Cost matters even less in a conflict like the SMO as the constraint on both sides is manufacturing capacity not money. The US can print as many dollars as they want but they can only send as many 155mm rounds as they can make. Ditto RF with rubles/152mm.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,123

    Surely not that many mask wearers this weekend?
    It's an old photo that for some reason has gone viral on FBPE twitter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164
    edited May 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cost matters even less in a conflict like the SMO as the constraint on both sides is manufacturing capacity not money. The US can print as many dollars as they want but they can only send as many 155mm rounds as they can make. Ditto RF with rubles/152mm.
    Cost is a very large constraint in stocks prior to conflict - and while it’s not equivalent to manufacturing capacity correlates pretty well with the ability to increase it.
    Cheap drones started being used because there wasn’t anything else available in sufficient numbers. Despite being improvised lashups, they’ve proved surprisingly useful; and definitely the only cost effective way to take out Scooby vans,

    And this is all about both cost and availability:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,164

    Cost does get factored in during procurement. Hence hi-lo mixes - NLAW and Javelin. The Charlie G* is making a comeback on the basis of ultra low cost per round.

    *in the cadets, one lucky soul was allowed to fire a round. He was concussed for about a week.
    The Stugna is also pretty handy.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321

    There's muffin wrong with them
    Ho-vis there is!

  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, you are a genuine liberal KJH rather than a social democrat
    Genuine question, @HYUFD

    Categories/Identities/Ideologies seem to be really important to you. You police them very strictly.

    Why?

    Do you feel there’s a political advantage? Strikes me that such an approach is likely to be counterproductive, in terms of exercising power and influence.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321

    That is a different question

    Sunak is the conservatives best hope of mitigating what looks increasingly likely a defeat in 2024 and at least Sunak and Hunt are dealing responsible with the present economic crisis

    In truth I fear no single political party has the answers, and I would go further in that I am not sure there are answers to the deep seated problems the country faces

    I think you said you have a 5 year fixed rate mortgage and are worried where interest rates will be at end of the term, and you raise the legitimate fear of mortgage holders but the only answer is to stop and reverse inflation which in turn may well cause a recession, as Hunt honestly said last week, and then interest rates will fall

    Unfortunately there is simply too much politics and not enough common sense and if I could arrange it I would form a government of nation unity made up from all parties
    There are always answers.

    As for the question of interest rates, it absolutely sucks for people who bought based on prevailing low interest rates (for 1t years). But they were always going to return to historical levels - had to return otherwise we were screwed as an economy.

    But during that period asset prices were too high. We are seeing it in water and private equity. We are seeing it in house prices. It’s a painful adjustment that has to happen. But it sucks on an individual level.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,890
    "From Duty to Decadence
    Queen Elizabeth to Prince Harry—what a falling-off was there!
    Theodore Dalrymple"

    https://www.city-journal.org/article/from-duty-to-decadence
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Nigelb said:

    Cost is a very large constraint in stocks prior to conflict - and while it’s not equivalent to manufacturing capacity correlates pretty well with the ability to increase it.
    Cheap drones started being used because there wasn’t anything else available in sufficient numbers. Despite being improvised lashups, they’ve proved surprisingly useful; and definitely the only cost effective way to take out Scooby vans,

    And this is all about both cost and availability:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
    There are also significant bottlenecks in quite a lot of dumb weapons. Artillery shells need precision manufacturer and the barrels even more so. Both are consumed at vast rates in conventional barrage attacks.

    Hence the numbers suggesting that smart shells are actually cheaper - a guided round could be $50k - but a conventional shell is already 1k or so. And you might end up firing a hundred to hit the target. Then you factor in barrel wear, wear on the rest of the gun, vulnerability window for firing 100 rounds….
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321

    I don't know who Gerry Hassan is, but presume from his twit bio that he's one of Scottish nationalism's "intelligentsia"

    Why the fuck does he think that UK nationals would be held up at the UK border by Brexit?

    @GerryHassan

    The reality of Taking Back Control. A queue of empowered, sovereign UK people enjoying their new found Brexit freedom this weekend. Rejoice!



    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1662554956681863172

    That doesn’t look like the queue for the automated gates the Brits use. It’s in front of the passport desk. I wonder if it is an American flight?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,757

    Cost does get factored in during procurement. Hence hi-lo mixes - NLAW and Javelin. The Charlie G* is making a comeback on the basis of ultra low cost per round.

    *in the cadets, one lucky soul was allowed to fire a round. He was concussed for about a week.
    For all those of you who don't speak @Dura_Ace , the "Charlie G" is the Carl Gustav recoilless rifle (a tube with a complex bit at one end. Fires small shells, not big bullets. Don't stand behind one)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97H7jkLm7rE
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430

    That doesn’t look like the queue for the automated gates the Brits use. It’s in front of the passport desk. I wonder if it is an American flight?
    E gates are the future everywhere - in or out of the EU. And yes, when they go down it will be a massive pain in the arse.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 723

    Ho-vis there is!

    I don't give a focaccia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    Nigelb said:

    Cost is a very large constraint in stocks prior to conflict - and while it’s not equivalent to manufacturing capacity correlates pretty well with the ability to increase it.
    Cheap drones started being used because there wasn’t anything else available in sufficient numbers. Despite being improvised lashups, they’ve proved surprisingly useful; and definitely the only cost effective way to take out Scooby vans,

    And this is all about both cost and availability:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
    There are also significant bottlenecks in quite a lot of dumb weapons. Artillery shells need precision manufacturer and the barrels even more so. Both are consumed at vast rates in conventional barrage attacks.

    Hence the numbers suggesting that p
    viewcode said:

    For all those of you who don't speak @Dura_Ace , the "Charlie G" is the Carl Gustav recoilless rifle (a tube with a complex bit at one end. Fires small shells, not big bullets. Don't stand behind one)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97H7jkLm7rE
    Or in front. Or to the side.

    The original produced a fierce back last that made it quite unpopular to fire.

    https://i.insider.com/5ab4284ba042513d008b49d8?width=1300&format=jpeg&auto=webp

    Gives a bit of the flavour of the thing - the blast to the right is the back blast…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,200
    ping said:

    Genuine question, @HYUFD

    Categories/Identities/Ideologies seem to be really important to you. You police them very strictly.

    Why?

    Do you feel there’s a political advantage? Strikes me that such an approach is likely to be counterproductive, in terms of exercising power and influence.
    No, just I don't like people claiming to be something when they are clearly ideologically something else.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,757
    ping said:

    Genuine question, @HYUFD

    Categories/Identities/Ideologies seem to be really important to you. You police them very strictly.

    Why?

    Do you feel there’s a political advantage? Strikes me that such an approach is likely to be counterproductive, in terms of exercising power and influence.
    He has a tidy mind. It's his most useful feature. Unfortunately he can also fixate on things that are untrue and is obdurate to correction, but mostly he is either bang on or close enough.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2023
    Vote conservative: get crime.

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/drugs-kingpin-who-planned-flood-26999629

    I can’t help but feel somewhat responsible. I voted for his mum’s boss (the tory PCC candidate), back in 2012.

    I should have voted for the hopeless labour candidate, who was fixated on using her position to crush the far right instead.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,185
    Oh Kylie Minogue, I used to love you and your music.

    Now you're on my enemies list.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,277
    Afternoon all :)

    Back from a week's holiday to find myself at the eye of a political tornado. Yes, there's a local council by-election in my Ward in Newham - one of two in the Borough as a councillor in Boleyn has also resigned.

    The resignation of Luke Charters in Wall End isn't a huge surprise - he fought York Outer in 2017 and has been re-selected and would fancy his chances of getting the 9.1% swing he needs to take the seat on current polling.

    Labour have been out this morning with flyers for the new candidate who works for the NHS.

    She'll probably walk it but three outlying thoughts - the Conservatives got 30% in a by-election in May 2021 but they usually pick a young respectable Hindu business man who has all the political skills of a gnat and duly gets thrashed. Last time an Independent called Swarup Choudhury finished behind the three victorious Labour candidates. He was 925 votes behind the last of the Labour candidates but 300 votes ahead of the top Conservative. Choudhury wasn't really an Independent but part of a small slate of left-leaning anti-Labour candidates who backed the Mayoral candidacy of Mehmood Mirza (who ended up fourth).

    The third possibility is or are the Greens who are in terms of votes and seats the official opposition in Newham. The Greens broke the Labour monopoly last time by winning two of the new seats at Stratford but they improved their vote across the Borough. In Wall End, there was only 20 votes between the bottom placed Conservative and the leading Green.

    The Greens are going to be fighting both Wall End and Boleyn hard I suspect. They are about in Wall End today as well. The Conservatives were out and about yesterday so plenty of politics ahead until we get the by-election dates announced.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,430
    A
    HYUFD said:

    No, just I don't like people claiming to be something when they are clearly ideologically something else.

    Many years back, libertarianism had a brief moment of popularity in the U.K.

    Poly Toynbee wrote a column for the Guardian. In which she decried actual libertarians as “negative”. And wanted to appropriate the word libertarian for people like her - big state types, who were in favour of state regulation of everything and sensible ideas like the Labour plan for a unified database for all personal data to be accessible by anyone in government.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,757

    Oh Kylie Minogue, I used to love you and your music.

    Now you're on my enemies list.

    You dissing my girl, @TSE? What has occurred to cause such a flaw to pass your lips?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,185
    edited May 2023
    viewcode said:

    You dissing my girl, @TSE? What has occurred to cause such a flaw to pass your lips?
    She's at the Monaco grand prix and Martin Brundle just interviewed her and she's admitted that she will be cheering for Max Verstappen.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405

    I don't know who Gerry Hassan is, but presume from his twit bio that he's one of Scottish nationalism's "intelligentsia"

    Why the fuck does he think that UK nationals would be held up at the UK border by Brexit?

    @GerryHassan

    The reality of Taking Back Control. A queue of empowered, sovereign UK people enjoying their new found Brexit freedom this weekend. Rejoice!



    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1662554956681863172

    Gerry Hassan is one of those columnists that can write a 20,000 word article, which after you have ploughed through it, you realise he has actually said nothing!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,757
    edited May 2023

    She's at the Monaco grand prix and Martin Brundle interviewed her and she's admitted that she will be cheering for Max Verstappen.
    Ah. She is supporting a person in a sporting competition in which I have no interest but you prefer another.

    [sucks teeth]

    OK, I'll let you off this time, but listen to "Confide in Me" as penance.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    kinabalu said:

    Well it oughtn't be for me to bat for him but -
    He isn't pro tax & spend. He was just CoE during the costly pandemic.
    The NI deal was merely to clear up some Johnson mess.
    He leaned to the anti-lockdown side. Argued that against the beloved.
    Pro vaccine just means not a fruitcake.
    He is as anti-Woke as you can get with out going all Littlejohn.
    Immigration? Yes, ok, I can see that one with the big numbers released the other day. He's 'sound' on the rhetoric though. I mean, he keeps threatening to deport migrants to Rwanda, would you believe.
    Sunak is Norman Tebbit reincarnated as an Asian citizen-of-nowhere billionaire hedge fund manager.

    Hard to get our head around that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    @TheScreamingEagles I presume that's for the same reason as me: her ducking out of KCIII coronation concert because she didn't want to upset republicans.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,757

    A

    Many years back, libertarianism had a brief moment of popularity in the U.K.

    Poly Toynbee wrote a column for the Guardian. In which she decried actual libertarians as “negative”. And wanted to appropriate the word libertarian for people like her - big state types, who were in favour of state regulation of everything and sensible ideas like the Labour plan for a unified database for all personal data to be accessible by anyone in government.
    Yes, Sarah Vine did something similar. The chattering classes can be epically dim.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,177
    SandraMc said:

    I don't give a focaccia.
    Hadn't ciabatta come up with something a bit more rye?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,074

    Hadn't ciabatta come up with something a bit more rye?
    These are getting really stale now
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    She's at the Monaco grand prix and Martin Brundle just interviewed her and she's admitted that she will be cheering for Max Verstappen.
    She’s a guest of Red Bull, so what else was she going to say?

    If Max is going to have a singer dressed in white draped over his car, I’m sure he’d take Kylie over Geri any day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    Surely not that many mask wearers this weekend?
    I've just come through that very same border. Looks like T5 at LHR

    I swanned through there, very few masks

    But yesterday there was chaos coz the e-gates broke down around the UK, apparently
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,185

    NEW THREAD

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    @TheScreamingEagles I presume that's for the same reason as me: her ducking out of KCIII coronation concert because she didn't want to upset republicans.

    To be fair to her, that’s a little more of a controversial political issue in Australia.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    That doesn’t look like the queue for the automated gates the Brits use. It’s in front of the passport desk. I wonder if it is an American flight?
    There was an IT problem yesterday and the gates went down briefly. If you have an automated system it is always going to cause chaos when that automated system fails briefly, for whatever reason. In fact, whatever system you have is going to cause chaos if, for any reason that system fails, or has to deal with something it wasn't designed for.

    Needless to say, it has nothing to do with Brexit.

    I spent decades frustrated with the way in which right-wing journalists - like Boris Johnson - would blame anything and everything on eurocrats, and invent new ills that they were plotting to inflict on the British public. Perhaps, rather naively, I thought that my side of the debate had higher standards of fact and truth, but it seems like there are plenty people determined to express their inchoate rage at Brexit by abandoning any objectivity.

    Kinda depressing, but Brexit supporters better get used to it. There will be people who will blame everything on Brexit, and a lot of people who will listen to them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    That doesn’t look like the queue for the automated gates the Brits use. It’s in front of the passport desk. I wonder if it is an American flight?
    That is an odd number of masks, however

    I've done a dozen flights around the world in the last few months, not even in Asia did I see that many masks in airports. Peculiar
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,277
    It would be interesting to see how the Conservative message on immigration (whatever it is) would play on the streets of Wall End and Boleyn but that's for the Conservatives.

    However, what now seems clear is, having sorted out "Europe" after 35 years of division, the Conservatives have quickly found a new internal fault line in immigration. What for instance is the next Conservative Manifesto going to say and how will it be nuanced?

    To be fair, allowing the Conservatives to "bang on" about immigration is probably the best way to ensure a decade or more of non-Conservative Government. OTOH, the issue clearly has more salience than EU membership had for many years - the problem for this observer is reconciling economic growth without cheap labour unless you are going to invest big in automation of business processes whether through AI, Bots or whatever. That will get you so far and may be as profound economically and socially as the reduction of "heavy" industry in the early 80s.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Leon said:

    That is an odd number of masks, however

    I've done a dozen flights around the world in the last few months, not even in Asia did I see that many masks in airports. Peculiar
    Nov 2021 photo

    https://twitter.com/carriewarrie1/status/1662717118196994049?t=BtMi_2M1Fs8omYxa1hMPLQ&s=19
  • TresTres Posts: 2,753

    There was an IT problem yesterday and the gates went down briefly. If you have an automated system it is always going to cause chaos when that automated system fails briefly, for whatever reason. In fact, whatever system you have is going to cause chaos if, for any reason that system fails, or has to deal with something it wasn't designed for.

    Needless to say, it has nothing to do with Brexit.

    I spent decades frustrated with the way in which right-wing journalists - like Boris Johnson - would blame anything and everything on eurocrats, and invent new ills that they were plotting to inflict on the British public. Perhaps, rather naively, I thought that my side of the debate had higher standards of fact and truth, but it seems like there are plenty people determined to express their inchoate rage at Brexit by abandoning any objectivity.

    Kinda depressing, but Brexit supporters better get used to it. There will be people who will blame everything on Brexit, and a lot of people who will listen to them.
    reaping / sowing meme
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Miklosvar said:

    Nov 2021 photo

    https://twitter.com/carriewarrie1/status/1662717118196994049?t=BtMi_2M1Fs8omYxa1hMPLQ&s=19
    Hah. That explains it. What a twat
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,181
    edited May 2023
    FF43 said:

    Sunak is Norman Tebbit reincarnated as an Asian citizen-of-nowhere billionaire hedge fund manager.

    Hard to get our head around that.
    Let's not overegg the pudding. 'Billionaire hedge fund manager' makes it sound as if he made his billions rather than married them.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321

    She's at the Monaco grand prix and Martin Brundle just interviewed her and she's admitted that she will be cheering for Max Verstappen.
    You didn’t expect an Aussie to believe in rules?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,321
    Scott_xP said:

    These are getting really stale now
    So stale they are just for the birds
This discussion has been closed.