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The new coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited June 2023 in General
The new coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com

New from @IpsosUK: Why coalition of chaos narrative unlikely to particularly help the Conservatives.Public more likely to expect chaos if Tories win with no majority than if Labour do the samehttps://t.co/zCZ4eBX4s1 pic.twitter.com/85i8XQn1ms

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Comments

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Morning everyone.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,474

    Morning everyone.

    Morning Frank. Glad to see someone else is up early too.

    You also have dogs?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Morning everyone.

    Morning Frank. Glad to see someone else is up early too.

    You also have dogs?
    No. I've just being getting an early night the last couple of days.

    Daylight at 5am is a peculiar feature of this time of year.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,967
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I slept abysmally, so we'll see if that gives me a half-asleep wisdom when trying to find value at the worst circuit of the calendar...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Rumours about President Lukashenko's health deteriorating after his meeting with Putin.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,967
    Betting Post

    F1: I've still got stuff to peruse but Ocon is 2.5 for a podium yet 36 (Ladbrokes, boosted) to win each way. I've backed the latter. He starts 3rd and unless he screws up the start he's got a very high chance of being top three. Passing's impossible and drivers tend to be as slow as they can to avoid the tyres going off and forcing a pit stop which may be inopportune.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Non-paywalled CLA site with downloadable pdf:-

    'Rural Wall' collapsing as Conservative support in rural England falls by 18 points
    https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Scenes from North East Somerset on election night:

    via GIPHY

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Non-paywalled CLA site with downloadable pdf:-

    'Rural Wall' collapsing as Conservative support in rural England falls by 18 points
    https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/
    They’d still hold 76 out of 100 seats, though, on those numbers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Scenes from North East Somerset on election night:

    via GIPHY

    I doubt if she’s laughing now, though.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    edited May 2023
    "thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn." Parties get the leaders they deserve!
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Schadenfreude is a terrible emotion - beguiling as it is - and we mustn’t forget the balls, and sacrifice, it takes to put yourself forward for public service, to raise your head above the parapet, to put yourself forward for a popularity contest every few years, submitting to the uncompromising will of the electorate. These people genuinely want to help to make this country better. I might disagree entirely with the way they think that should happen but they deserve my respect.

    That said, it would be lovely to see all those Tory bastards fall. Especially Rees-Mogg.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    edited May 2023

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    North East Somerset/Wansdyke (Mogg) and the Forest of Dean (Harper) were both held by Labour under Blair.

    Indeed, the Forest of Dean was traditionally a very safe Labour seat until 1979 when Paul Marland narrowly won it. Thus was due to its coal mining and the associated workforce. In any case, it isn't actually particularly rural. Most of its population lives in five medium-sized towns - Cinderford, Lydney, Coleford, Mitcheldean and Newent.

    If that's their idea of a 'rural wall' they need to get out more.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    ydoethur said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    North East Somerset/Wansdyke (Mogg) and the Forest of Dean (Harper) were both held by Labour under Blair.

    Indeed, the Forest of Dean was traditionally a very safe Labour seat until 1979 when Paul Marland narrowly won it. Thus was due to its coal mining and the associated workforce. In any case, isn't actually particularly rural. Most of its population lives in five medium-sized towns - Cinderford, Lydney, Coleford, Mitcheldean and Newent.

    If that's their idea of a 'rural wall' they need to get out more.
    SW Surrey isn’t very rural, either.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    edited May 2023
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    North East Somerset/Wansdyke (Mogg) and the Forest of Dean (Harper) were both held by Labour under Blair.

    Indeed, the Forest of Dean was traditionally a very safe Labour seat until 1979 when Paul Marland narrowly won it. Thus was due to its coal mining and the associated workforce. In any case, isn't actually particularly rural. Most of its population lives in five medium-sized towns - Cinderford, Lydney, Coleford, Mitcheldean and Newent.

    If that's their idea of a 'rural wall' they need to get out more.
    SW Surrey isn’t very rural, either.
    I think there's a tendency (particularly I fear among people based in London) to look at constituencies where there's a bit of countryside and lazily assume they're 'rural' as a result. It's easier than burrowing into the detail of where the population actually lives, which is a faff.

    Cannock Chase would be another example. It's considered rural by many, but it isn't. Sure, it's got Cannock Chase in it but the voters don't live in Cannock Chase, they live in the Cannock Urban Area and Rugeley, the latter of which is one of the most deprived towns in England.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    Rumours about President Lukashenko's health deteriorating after his meeting with Putin.

    Could not happen to a nicer person
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    malcolmg said:

    Rumours about President Lukashenko's health deteriorating after his meeting with Putin.

    Could not happen to a nicer person
    Yes it could, it could have been the other way around.

    Because if Putin dies Lukashenko is finished anyway, so we'd get two for the price of one.

    I was amused though at the implied correlation!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,843

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Non-paywalled CLA site with downloadable pdf:-

    'Rural Wall' collapsing as Conservative support in rural England falls by 18 points
    https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/
    Rees mogg a gonner.?.. what larks!!.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,188
    Icarus said:

    "thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn." Parties get the leaders they deserve!

    Labour certainly did with Corbyn. A supreme act of self-indulgence that went badly wrong. Sadly, it cost the nation dearly as well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Schadenfreude is a terrible emotion - beguiling as it is - and we mustn’t forget the balls, and sacrifice, it takes to put yourself forward for public service, to raise your head above the parapet, to put yourself forward for a popularity contest every few years, submitting to the uncompromising will of the electorate. These people genuinely want to help to make this country better. I might disagree entirely with the way they think that should happen but they deserve my respect.

    That said, it would be lovely to see all those Tory bastards fall. Especially Rees-Mogg.
    :D PMSL, you are obviously trolling. Majority are grifters or no users looking for easy money, unlimited expenses and gold plated pensions , half the year on holiday and the other half in subsidised bars and restaurants getting sloshed whilst looking for a lumber.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited May 2023

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I slept abysmally, so we'll see if that gives me a half-asleep wisdom when trying to find value at the worst circuit of the calendar...

    As someone on the spot I can report that Monaco is crowded and tickets to sit in an average seat cost 920 euros. Whatever you might think of this Grand Prix I can't imagine one more glamorous. Monaco can look spectacular when it puts its mind to it. It's wealth is there for all to see
    but so is it's history and this is Grand Prix number eighty.

    All through the principality are archives of black and white photographs of Princess Grace and Prince Rainier set against the colourful Grand Prix stalls and screens and it works surprisingly well. It's so multinational Suella would have a seizure

    The 76th film festival at Cannes by contrast though still glamorous can be pretty tacky. This year it's been taken over by 'influencers'. Girls doing ever crazier stunts to get noticed. Many finding a way onto the Red Carpet to the chagrin of the film makers. But the good news is that Jonathan Glazer won the Grand Prix (not that one) for 'The Zone of Interest'
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994

    Icarus said:

    "thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn." Parties get the leaders they deserve!

    Labour certainly did with Corbyn. A supreme act of self-indulgence that went badly wrong. Sadly, it cost the nation dearly as well.
    I was mainly thinking of the Conservative Party!!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    "Coalition of chaos" won't work as a slogan because chaos is a word associated with the Conservatives. They won't want to remind people of that.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,352
    On topic: I'd have liked to have seen the polling view of chaos if the Tories and Labour got working majorities as well!

    I'm not worried about fear of a Labour minority, as I think in current circumstances it would drive some bite the bullet and vote more for Labour rather than the converse.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,188
    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    "thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn." Parties get the leaders they deserve!

    Labour certainly did with Corbyn. A supreme act of self-indulgence that went badly wrong. Sadly, it cost the nation dearly as well.
    I was mainly thinking of the Conservative Party!!
    I feel that Corbyn was an affliction on both parties. With Labour the effects are obvious, but Corbyn's presence also gave the Tories a completely free hand to indulge their more lunatic fancies since they were effectively running a one-party state with Corbyn wrecking Labour.

    The country has suffered terribly from the lack of leadership that Corbyn caused in both parties.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives have left no stone unturned, since 2019, in their efforts to alienate both long-standing supporters, and floating voters.

    It’s surprising that their support is as high as 29%.

    I'm starting to think a Labour landslide, by default, might be possible actually.

    It's FPTP and it's possibly the Conservatives clock 29-30% nationally whilst not really being particularly strong in any seat, anywhere.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    North East Somerset/Wansdyke (Mogg) and the Forest of Dean (Harper) were both held by Labour under Blair.

    Indeed, the Forest of Dean was traditionally a very safe Labour seat until 1979 when Paul Marland narrowly won it. Thus was due to its coal mining and the associated workforce. In any case, isn't actually particularly rural. Most of its population lives in five medium-sized towns - Cinderford, Lydney, Coleford, Mitcheldean and Newent.

    If that's their idea of a 'rural wall' they need to get out more.
    SW Surrey isn’t very rural, either.
    It is also rich in private schools. Such seats will probably rally back to the Tories in opposition, almost regardless of how badly they behave, once Labour is in office and starts jacking up their taxes.

    But, that'd just get them back to par, not to winning an election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives have left no stone unturned, since 2019, in their efforts to alienate both long-standing supporters, and floating voters.

    It’s surprising that their support is as high as 29%.

    Also, the contempt for their own membership oozes from the letters written from CCO.

    One wonder if the organisation is secretly staffed by very effective Deep Labour agents.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    malcolmg said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Schadenfreude is a terrible emotion - beguiling as it is - and we mustn’t forget the balls, and sacrifice, it takes to put yourself forward for public service, to raise your head above the parapet, to put yourself forward for a popularity contest every few years, submitting to the uncompromising will of the electorate. These people genuinely want to help to make this country better. I might disagree entirely with the way they think that should happen but they deserve my respect.

    That said, it would be lovely to see all those Tory bastards fall. Especially Rees-Mogg.
    :D PMSL, you are obviously trolling. Majority are grifters or no users looking for easy money, unlimited expenses and gold plated pensions , half the year on holiday and the other half in subsidised bars and restaurants getting sloshed whilst looking for a lumber.
    Up early this morning, Malc!

    Good morning to all.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    malcolmg said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Schadenfreude is a terrible emotion - beguiling as it is - and we mustn’t forget the balls, and sacrifice, it takes to put yourself forward for public service, to raise your head above the parapet, to put yourself forward for a popularity contest every few years, submitting to the uncompromising will of the electorate. These people genuinely want to help to make this country better. I might disagree entirely with the way they think that should happen but they deserve my respect.

    That said, it would be lovely to see all those Tory bastards fall. Especially Rees-Mogg.
    :D PMSL, you are obviously trolling. Majority are grifters or no users looking for easy money, unlimited expenses and gold plated pensions , half the year on holiday and the other half in subsidised bars and restaurants getting sloshed whilst looking for a lumber.
    Oooooooh you are cynical! Yeah no doubt there’s some like that. But not all of them, I don’t think.

    I’m very, very far from being some kind of political insider, but I do happen to know, not well but cordially enough on the odd occasion I see them, a few councillors. A couple of whom have gone on to become MPs. I’d happily vote for them. Even - shudder - the Tory ones. Because they’re good, principled, decent people.

    There’s a Lib Dem I know ever so slightly I wouldn’t piss on if he was on fire.

    The further up they chain they go though I suspect, sadly, the less pure they become. Politics - it’s a shit business.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    ydoethur said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    North East Somerset/Wansdyke (Mogg) and the Forest of Dean (Harper) were both held by Labour under Blair.

    Indeed, the Forest of Dean was traditionally a very safe Labour seat until 1979 when Paul Marland narrowly won it. Thus was due to its coal mining and the associated workforce. In any case, it isn't actually particularly rural. Most of its population lives in five medium-sized towns - Cinderford, Lydney, Coleford, Mitcheldean and Newent.

    If that's their idea of a 'rural wall' they need to get out more.
    Don't those five towns have a combined population of around 40k ?

    Which would mean that there's more people living in less populous places.

    Of course this then leads to a discussion of what is urban/rural or town/village.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives have left no stone unturned, since 2019, in their efforts to alienate both long-standing supporters, and floating voters.

    It’s surprising that their support is as high as 29%.

    An unpleasant combination of greed, laziness, ignorance, arrogance, self-obsession, hypocrisy and lack of discipline.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Non-paywalled CLA site with downloadable pdf:-

    'Rural Wall' collapsing as Conservative support in rural England falls by 18 points
    https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/
    Rees mogg a gonner.?.. what larks!!.
    JRM will lose if all the opposition rallies around Labour.

    Labour/LD/Green combined ran him pretty close even in GE2019 - question is whether it splits evenly across Labour/LD again.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    "thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn." Parties get the leaders they deserve!

    Labour certainly did with Corbyn. A supreme act of self-indulgence that went badly wrong. Sadly, it cost the nation dearly as well.
    I was mainly thinking of the Conservative Party!!
    I feel that Corbyn was an affliction on both parties. With Labour the effects are obvious, but Corbyn's presence also gave the Tories a completely free hand to indulge their more lunatic fancies since they were effectively running a one-party state with Corbyn wrecking Labour.

    The country has suffered terribly from the lack of leadership that Corbyn caused in both parties.
    But not long to go. We can all look forward to a few Portillo moments though this lot have been so ghastly just watching them lose their seat doesn't seem adequate. Certainly not for Braverman. I'd like to see her frogmarched onto a plane to Rwanda while the nation cheered
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives have left no stone unturned, since 2019, in their efforts to alienate both long-standing supporters, and floating voters.

    It’s surprising that their support is as high as 29%.

    An unpleasant combination of greed, laziness, ignorance, arrogance, self-obsession, hypocrisy and lack of discipline.
    That's a bit harsh.......on the greedy, lazy, ignorant, arrogant and hypocritical narcissists amongst us.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    Roger said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    "thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn." Parties get the leaders they deserve!

    Labour certainly did with Corbyn. A supreme act of self-indulgence that went badly wrong. Sadly, it cost the nation dearly as well.
    I was mainly thinking of the Conservative Party!!
    I feel that Corbyn was an affliction on both parties. With Labour the effects are obvious, but Corbyn's presence also gave the Tories a completely free hand to indulge their more lunatic fancies since they were effectively running a one-party state with Corbyn wrecking Labour.

    The country has suffered terribly from the lack of leadership that Corbyn caused in both parties.
    But not long to go. We can all look forward to a few Portillo moments though this lot have been so ghastly just watching them lose their seat doesn't seem adequate. Certainly not for Braverman. I'd like to see her frogmarched onto a plane to Rwanda while the nation cheered
    Brexit still happened.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited May 2023
    What I find bizarre is that the lesson so many in the Conservative party seem to have learned from Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn disaster is “I want a bit of that”. The retreat into the echo chamber and the growing radicalisation of the right of the party is absolutely text book Corbynism. Hating the country you want to govern - as many National Conservatives clearly do - is not a recipe for success.

    If Sunak manages to defy the odds and stay in power, the Tories may manage to sort themselves out as competence and pragmatism will have delivered. But if he loses, the future looks bleak.

    Labour has layers of internal power that constrain a leader’s freedom to act. These do not exist in the Conservative party. A leader with a strong mandate from members and MPs can basically do as they wish. If those members and MPs are broadly sympathetic to the NatCons, then it could be a long road back to power.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    edited May 2023

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    There’s more than an air of desperation about this shower at the moment.

    However Food inflation may well have peaked.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-12119149/When-food-prices-start-fall.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    My rseaction was to wonder, how much of that will the supermarkets dump on the farmers?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    "thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn." Parties get the leaders they deserve!

    Labour certainly did with Corbyn. A supreme act of self-indulgence that went badly wrong. Sadly, it cost the nation dearly as well.
    I was mainly thinking of the Conservative Party!!
    I feel that Corbyn was an affliction on both parties. With Labour the effects are obvious, but Corbyn's presence also gave the Tories a completely free hand to indulge their more lunatic fancies since they were effectively running a one-party state with Corbyn wrecking Labour.

    The country has suffered terribly from the lack of leadership that Corbyn caused in both parties.
    Hubris is the Tory Achilles Heal and always has been.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    malcolmg said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Schadenfreude is a terrible emotion - beguiling as it is - and we mustn’t forget the balls, and sacrifice, it takes to put yourself forward for public service, to raise your head above the parapet, to put yourself forward for a popularity contest every few years, submitting to the uncompromising will of the electorate. These people genuinely want to help to make this country better. I might disagree entirely with the way they think that should happen but they deserve my respect.

    That said, it would be lovely to see all those Tory bastards fall. Especially Rees-Mogg.
    :D PMSL, you are obviously trolling. Majority are grifters or no users looking for easy money, unlimited expenses and gold plated pensions , half the year on holiday and the other half in subsidised bars and restaurants getting sloshed whilst looking for a lumber.
    Up early this morning, Malc!

    Good morning to all.
    Morning OKC, busy day ahead, I am off on holiday this week so lots to do. Hope you are well and things improving for you.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    Carnyx said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    My rseaction was to wonder, how much of that will the supermarkets dump on the farmers?
    Supermarket margins are not great either. It would simply starve supply.

    To see how price controls work have a look where they have been implemented.

    Venezuela for instance.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    I'd prefer the supermarkets telling the government how to do their job.

    And given that you can buy 800g bread for 39p why do they think a price cap is necessary.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    FF43 said:

    "Coalition of chaos" won't work as a slogan because chaos is a word associated with the Conservatives. They won't want to remind people of that.

    The Sun did polling recently - that it chose not to give much prominence to - that found a Tory majority was viewed more negatively than either a Labour majority or any possible coalition combination.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    Taz said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    There’s more than an air of desperation about this shower at the moment.

    However Food inflation may well have peaked.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-12119149/When-food-prices-start-fall.html
    As well as the price rises there has also been a noticeable drop in quality. So if supermarket fruit has gone up 20%, it is probably more like 30-40% for a similar quality piece of fruit rather than what that particular supermarket was selling in 2021 vs what it is now selling in 2023.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    I'd prefer the supermarkets telling the government how to do their job.

    And given that you can buy 800g bread for 39p why do they think a price cap is necessary.
    Must be real crap bread ( more like cardboard ) at that price.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,809
    On topic, the coalition of chaos narrative will not wash because the Tory party is now itself a coalition of chaos. Ditched much of its core philosophy and at war with its own extremists.

    The risk for the Tory vote is that it is increasingly inefficiently distributed. 30-40% in red and blue walls. If the public votes efficiently to rid themselves of the Tories, it could be a disaster for them.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    FF43 said:

    "Coalition of chaos" won't work as a slogan because chaos is a word associated with the Conservatives. They won't want to remind people of that.

    The Sun did polling recently - that it chose not to give much prominence to - that found a Tory majority was viewed more negatively than either a Labour majority or any possible coalition combination.

    Any possible coalition? Long survey if they tested the Plaid/RefUK/Green/Yogic Flyers combo.......
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437

    Taz said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    There’s more than an air of desperation about this shower at the moment.

    However Food inflation may well have peaked.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-12119149/When-food-prices-start-fall.html
    As well as the price rises there has also been a noticeable drop in quality. So if supermarket fruit has gone up 20%, it is probably more like 30-40% for a similar quality piece of fruit rather than what that particular supermarket was selling in 2021 vs what it is now selling in 2023.
    Supermarket fruit quality has imo been hit by dropping dates off the packaging. It is said to reduce waste but perhaps just at the shop end because I seem to be throwing more away than before (which was none).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    malcolmg said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    I'd prefer the supermarkets telling the government how to do their job.

    And given that you can buy 800g bread for 39p why do they think a price cap is necessary.
    Must be real crap bread ( more like cardboard ) at that price.
    It all tastes the same after its been toasted.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    Taz said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    There’s more than an air of desperation about this shower at the moment.

    However Food inflation may well have peaked.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-12119149/When-food-prices-start-fall.html
    As well as the price rises there has also been a noticeable drop in quality. So if supermarket fruit has gone up 20%, it is probably more like 30-40% for a similar quality piece of fruit rather than what that particular supermarket was selling in 2021 vs what it is now selling in 2023.
    Supermarket fruit quality has imo been hit by dropping dates off the packaging. It is said to reduce waste but perhaps just at the shop end because I seem to be throwing more away than before (which was none).
    I agree, noticed a big drop in quality of vegetables recently
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    malcolmg said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    I'd prefer the supermarkets telling the government how to do their job.

    And given that you can buy 800g bread for 39p why do they think a price cap is necessary.
    Must be real crap bread ( more like cardboard ) at that price.
    It all tastes the same after its been toasted.
    Not at all. The cheap stuff tastes like cardboard. I like really good bread.
    But likely be all some can afford.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    The most obvious source of chaos after the next election would be 300+ Tory MPs short of a majority, with no one willing to give them any support but an effective blocking minority making any kind of stable, alternative government impossible. This would need a fair old swing back from where we are now but it is far from impossible. And idiocy on this scale will not help: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-28/starmer-plans-to-block-new-north-sea-oil-gas-projects-times?leadSource=uverify wall
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Schadenfreude is a terrible emotion - beguiling as it is - and we mustn’t forget the balls, and sacrifice, it takes to put yourself forward for public service, to raise your head above the parapet, to put yourself forward for a popularity contest every few years, submitting to the uncompromising will of the electorate. These people genuinely want to help to make this country better. I might disagree entirely with the way they think that should happen but they deserve my respect.

    That said, it would be lovely to see all those Tory bastards fall. Especially Rees-Mogg.
    :D PMSL, you are obviously trolling. Majority are grifters or no users looking for easy money, unlimited expenses and gold plated pensions , half the year on holiday and the other half in subsidised bars and restaurants getting sloshed whilst looking for a lumber.
    Up early this morning, Malc!

    Good morning to all.
    Morning OKC, busy day ahead, I am off on holiday this week so lots to do. Hope you are well and things improving for you.
    Where are you off to, Malc? Somewhere, sunny and warm?
    Yes, I think things are improving for me. Slowly.
    Must say that, generally speaking, I am impressed with the NHS services.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,516

    malcolmg said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    I'd prefer the supermarkets telling the government how to do their job.

    And given that you can buy 800g bread for 39p why do they think a price cap is necessary.
    Must be real crap bread ( more like cardboard ) at that price.
    It all tastes the same after its been toasted.
    Look at the rich guy over here with a toaster
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Not sure how you link photos direct, so I’ll have to do it via a Tweet. I took a 7.5 mile stroll in the cliff country overlooking Sidmouth yesterday. To say it looked perfect is an understatement! When England gets it right, there is nowhere on earth more beautiful.

    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1662536269270773761?s=46&t=rw5lNVUgmRPVyKpxfV_pPQ
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,976
    This is possibly the most savage thing I've read this decade.

    The MoS provides an update on the MP caught in a brothel; he now fears he was the victim of a foreign honeytrap.

    But a senior party figure doubts this theory, saying: “I can’t think of a single useful thing he could tell the Russians or the Chinese.”


    https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1662526583221919744

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12131511/Tory-MP-naked-brothel-4am-feared-victim-foreign-honeytrap.html
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    Carnyx said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    My rseaction was to wonder, how much of that will the supermarkets dump on the farmers?
    All of it - and the thing is supermarkets are incredibly efficient at a price level because people will move elsewhere and then never darken the door of that chain for the next X years. I'm one example used to shop in Morrisons 2/3 times a week for 20+ years, then their recent price rises became obvious and I've been going to Aldi / Marks / Sainsburys since November and not darkened their door since. Will be there today but only because I need some garden stuff and they have always been good for that.

    The irony is that if the Government really wanted to force the Supermarkets to do things will they should be insisting that petrol and diesel margins for the period of 2022-24 are kept at the average margin they used between 2015-19 and watch 5-8p immediately come off each litre.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Starmer may be uninspiring but he doesn’t go out of his way to alienate (in no particular order) civil servants, lawyers, immigrants, the children of immigrants, the young, the not quite so young, railway workers, teachers, Irish, Scots & Welsh people, Londoners, university lecturers, people who eat tofu, the poor, aspiring homeowners, liberals, Europhiles…there are no doubt others.

    As soon as the Conservatives find a base they want to appeal to Starmer has a problem. Until then all he has to do is not offend the people the Tories are.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    malcolmg said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    I'd prefer the supermarkets telling the government how to do their job.

    And given that you can buy 800g bread for 39p why do they think a price cap is necessary.
    Must be real crap bread ( more like cardboard ) at that price.
    It all tastes the same after its been toasted.
    Look at the rich guy over here with a toaster
    Add 0.4p per slice to your 39p.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives have left no stone unturned, since 2019, in their efforts to alienate both long-standing supporters, and floating voters.

    It’s surprising that their support is as high as 29%.

    Also, the contempt for their own membership oozes from the letters written from CCO.

    One wonder if the organisation is secretly staffed by very effective Deep Labour agents.
    Worse than that, the Conservative Party made the fatal error of Starting To Believe In Something.

    Once a group starts to coalesce around an organising belief, it becomes tempting to cut away any evidence that goes against that belief. Fine(ish) in a church, not fine if you're wanting to run a country. See Truss-Kwarteng for an example of this.

    The Conservatives, in particular, have worn their beliefs fairly lightly most of the time. Even Maggie (real Maggie, not cartoon Maggie of campfire stories) was a lot more pragmatic than she was given credit for. Capable wets could and did advance under Thatcher; William Waldegrave joined the cabinet in early November 1990.

    The party is much more monochrome than in the past- partly but not exclusively because of the Europe thing. Even if that was worth doing (and it's far too nice a morning to discuss that), it has come at a price, which is a higher propensity to groupthink and paranoia. Because it's now a Belief.

    And, in the even that the Conservatives do want to try something less strident, it's going to be tricky to find a leadership team out of whatever is left after an election defeat. Much harder than Labour found it under Corbyn. He also Believed In Things to an unhealthy degree, but plenty of his party just wanted to make life nicer for the less well off.
    Yes, pragmatism, realism and stability all used to be the Conservatives secret weapons and why they kept winning elections.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Price controls! FFS…
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,976
    edited May 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Price controls! FFS…

    It's French socialism.

    I'll say it again, Brexiteer Tories are intent on delivering Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto pledges.

    Brexit = Socialism.

    This is what I said last night.

    Sunak will end up paying private equity to subsidise food prices in supermarkets. I'm sure the likes of Clayton, Dubilier, & Rice, and the Issa Brothers will love it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    Roger said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I slept abysmally, so we'll see if that gives me a half-asleep wisdom when trying to find value at the worst circuit of the calendar...

    As someone on the spot I can report that Monaco is crowded and tickets to sit in an average seat cost 920 euros. Whatever you might think of this Grand Prix I can't imagine one more glamorous. Monaco can look spectacular when it puts its mind to it. It's wealth is there for all to see
    but so is it's history and this is Grand Prix number eighty.

    All through the principality are archives of black and white photographs of Princess Grace and Prince Rainier set against the colourful Grand Prix stalls and screens and it works surprisingly well. It's so multinational Suella would have a seizure

    The 76th film festival at Cannes by contrast though still glamorous can be pretty tacky. This year it's been taken over by 'influencers'. Girls doing ever crazier stunts to get noticed. Many finding a way onto the Red Carpet to the chagrin of the film makers. But the good news is that Jonathan Glazer won the Grand Prix (not that one) for 'The Zone of Interest'
    Have fun! I will definitely get to Monaco for the F1 one day, even Mrs Sandpit likes the look of the place.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671
    DougSeal said:

    Starmer may be uninspiring but he doesn’t go out of his way to alienate (in no particular order) civil servants, lawyers, immigrants, the children of immigrants, the young, the not quite so young, railway workers, teachers, Irish, Scots & Welsh people, Londoners, university lecturers, people who eat tofu, the poor, aspiring homeowners, liberals, Europhiles…there are no doubt others.

    As soon as the Conservatives find a base they want to appeal to Starmer has a problem. Until then all he has to do is not offend the people the Tories are.

    Please add "small and medium business owners" to this list.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    edited May 2023

    Not sure how you link photos direct, so I’ll have to do it via a Tweet. I took a 7.5 mile stroll in the cliff country overlooking Sidmouth yesterday. To say it looked perfect is an understatement! When England gets it right, there is nowhere on earth more beautiful.

    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1662536269270773761?s=46&t=rw5lNVUgmRPVyKpxfV_pPQ

    I completely agree. I did a solo 8-mile walk through the upland hills of North Hampshire yesterday, finishing up at a country pub, and I was deeply moved at how ravishing the landscape looked.

    It wasn't just looking back into the valley to see all the deep greenery, although that was sublime in and of itself, it was the light breeze gently carrying all the fresh smells (honeysuckle, cut grass, wildflower meadows, the budding oaks in the copses) together with the butterflies playing around and over it on top.

    You can see why Hubert Parry wrote what he did. I don't want to die and go to heaven. Heaven is here.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,809
    mwadams said:

    DougSeal said:

    Starmer may be uninspiring but he doesn’t go out of his way to alienate (in no particular order) civil servants, lawyers, immigrants, the children of immigrants, the young, the not quite so young, railway workers, teachers, Irish, Scots & Welsh people, Londoners, university lecturers, people who eat tofu, the poor, aspiring homeowners, liberals, Europhiles…there are no doubt others.

    As soon as the Conservatives find a base they want to appeal to Starmer has a problem. Until then all he has to do is not offend the people the Tories are.

    Please add "small and medium business owners" to this list.
    Doctors, nurses….
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983

    malcolmg said:

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Schadenfreude is a terrible emotion - beguiling as it is - and we mustn’t forget the balls, and sacrifice, it takes to put yourself forward for public service, to raise your head above the parapet, to put yourself forward for a popularity contest every few years, submitting to the uncompromising will of the electorate. These people genuinely want to help to make this country better. I might disagree entirely with the way they think that should happen but they deserve my respect.

    That said, it would be lovely to see all those Tory bastards fall. Especially Rees-Mogg.
    :D PMSL, you are obviously trolling. Majority are grifters or no users looking for easy money, unlimited expenses and gold plated pensions , half the year on holiday and the other half in subsidised bars and restaurants getting sloshed whilst looking for a lumber.
    Oooooooh you are cynical! Yeah no doubt there’s some like that. But not all of them, I don’t think.

    I’m very, very far from being some kind of political insider, but I do happen to know, not well but cordially enough on the odd occasion I see them, a few councillors. A couple of whom have gone on to become MPs. I’d happily vote for them. Even - shudder - the Tory ones. Because they’re good, principled, decent people.

    There’s a Lib Dem I know ever so slightly I wouldn’t piss on if he was on fire.

    The further up they chain they go though I suspect, sadly, the less pure they become. Politics - it’s a shit business.
    I thought when I read TSE's header that his alliteration was a little tame.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    DavidL said:

    The most obvious source of chaos after the next election would be 300+ Tory MPs short of a majority, with no one willing to give them any support but an effective blocking minority making any kind of stable, alternative government impossible. This would need a fair old swing back from where we are now but it is far from impossible. And idiocy on this scale will not help: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-28/starmer-plans-to-block-new-north-sea-oil-gas-projects-times?leadSource=uverify wall

    Ideally, I'd like Sunak with a majority of 100+ so he can govern sensibly.

    Without it I'd probably prefer the Conservatives to go into opposition with 250 seats+ and the nutters to be purged once there.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    mwadams said:

    DougSeal said:

    Starmer may be uninspiring but he doesn’t go out of his way to alienate (in no particular order) civil servants, lawyers, immigrants, the children of immigrants, the young, the not quite so young, railway workers, teachers, Irish, Scots & Welsh people, Londoners, university lecturers, people who eat tofu, the poor, aspiring homeowners, liberals, Europhiles…there are no doubt others.

    As soon as the Conservatives find a base they want to appeal to Starmer has a problem. Until then all he has to do is not offend the people the Tories are.

    Please add "small and medium business owners" to this list.
    Doctors, nurses….
    Not sure how I forgot those. Hangover I guess. Finally got to go on the Japanese Whiskey tasting that my wife bought for my birthday
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    mwadams said:

    DougSeal said:

    Starmer may be uninspiring but he doesn’t go out of his way to alienate (in no particular order) civil servants, lawyers, immigrants, the children of immigrants, the young, the not quite so young, railway workers, teachers, Irish, Scots & Welsh people, Londoners, university lecturers, people who eat tofu, the poor, aspiring homeowners, liberals, Europhiles…there are no doubt others.

    As soon as the Conservatives find a base they want to appeal to Starmer has a problem. Until then all he has to do is not offend the people the Tories are.

    Please add "small and medium business owners" to this list.
    And the large business owners having their prices set by the "blob"!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2023
    I think England could well be a hung parliament based on the local election results but Starmer ends up with a small UK wide majority due to Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and Labour winning an even bigger majority of seats in Wales
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives have left no stone unturned, since 2019, in their efforts to alienate both long-standing supporters, and floating voters.

    It’s surprising that their support is as high as 29%.

    Also, the contempt for their own membership oozes from the letters written from CCO.

    One wonder if the organisation is secretly staffed by very effective Deep Labour agents.
    Worse than that, the Conservative Party made the fatal error of Starting To Believe In Something.

    Once a group starts to coalesce around an organising belief, it becomes tempting to cut away any evidence that goes against that belief. Fine(ish) in a church, not fine if you're wanting to run a country. See Truss-Kwarteng for an example of this.

    The Conservatives, in particular, have worn their beliefs fairly lightly most of the time. Even Maggie (real Maggie, not cartoon Maggie of campfire stories) was a lot more pragmatic than she was given credit for. Capable wets could and did advance under Thatcher; William Waldegrave joined the cabinet in early November 1990.

    The party is much more monochrome than in the past- partly but not exclusively because of the Europe thing. Even if that was worth doing (and it's far too nice a morning to discuss that), it has come at a price, which is a higher propensity to groupthink and paranoia. Because it's now a Belief.

    And, in the even that the Conservatives do want to try something less strident, it's going to be tricky to find a leadership team out of whatever is left after an election defeat. Much harder than Labour found it under Corbyn. He also Believed In Things to an unhealthy degree, but plenty of his party just wanted to make life nicer for the less well off.
    Yes, pragmatism, realism and stability all used to be the Conservatives secret weapons and why they kept winning elections.
    Yet two years ago things were looking very good for the Conservatives.

    So what went wrong ?

    Not the policies as the country has trundled along but the revelations about the behaviour:

    The hypocrisy of the Downing Street parties
    The greed of the PPE contracts
    The self indulgence of Trussomics
    The bullying allegations of Raab and others
    The tax affairs of Zahawi
    The uselessness of Braverman
    The scheming of so many
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806

    DavidL said:

    The most obvious source of chaos after the next election would be 300+ Tory MPs short of a majority, with no one willing to give them any support but an effective blocking minority making any kind of stable, alternative government impossible. This would need a fair old swing back from where we are now but it is far from impossible. And idiocy on this scale will not help: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-28/starmer-plans-to-block-new-north-sea-oil-gas-projects-times?leadSource=uverify wall

    Ideally, I'd like Sunak with a majority of 100+ so he can govern sensibly.

    Without it I'd probably prefer the Conservatives to go into opposition with 250 seats+ and the nutters to be purged once there.
    If Sunak get a majority of 100+ I shall give up any interest in politics.

    If the country votes for this lot again after the past 13 years of mismanagement, decline and scandal it deserves to go down the pan, frankly.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    On Topic

    SKS Fan -"Toxic legacy"

    Toxic legacy my arse, you are Peter Mandleson and I claim my prize

    SKS has staked all on being Toxic to Socialists and will be lucky to crawl over the line due to 2024 having a "time is up for the Tories" feel about it,
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468

    DavidL said:

    The most obvious source of chaos after the next election would be 300+ Tory MPs short of a majority, with no one willing to give them any support but an effective blocking minority making any kind of stable, alternative government impossible. This would need a fair old swing back from where we are now but it is far from impossible. And idiocy on this scale will not help: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-28/starmer-plans-to-block-new-north-sea-oil-gas-projects-times?leadSource=uverify wall

    Ideally, I'd like Sunak with a majority of 100+ so he can govern sensibly.

    Without it I'd probably prefer the Conservatives to go into opposition with 250 seats+ and the nutters to be purged once there.
    Sunak's majority is about 70 right now? Would another 15 Conservative MPs really make a difference to anything? After all, you might just add another 15 nutters to the nutter caucus.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671

    DavidL said:

    The most obvious source of chaos after the next election would be 300+ Tory MPs short of a majority, with no one willing to give them any support but an effective blocking minority making any kind of stable, alternative government impossible. This would need a fair old swing back from where we are now but it is far from impossible. And idiocy on this scale will not help: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-28/starmer-plans-to-block-new-north-sea-oil-gas-projects-times?leadSource=uverify wall

    Ideally, I'd like Sunak with a majority of 100+ so he can govern sensibly.

    Without it I'd probably prefer the Conservatives to go into opposition with 250 seats+ and the nutters to be purged once there.
    Do you think adding about 10 people to the Conservative benches would enable Sunak to govern sensibly? (Serious question: we have to consider who is stepping down and what the PPCs replacing them look like.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2023

    DougSeal said:

    Price controls! FFS…

    It's French socialism.

    I'll say it again, Brexiteer Tories are intent on delivering Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto pledges.

    Brexit = Socialism.

    This is what I said last night.

    Sunak will end up paying private equity to subsidise food prices in supermarkets. I'm sure the likes of Clayton, Dubilier, & Rice, and the Issa Brothers will love it.
    Edward Heath delivered price controls in 1972. Michael Heseltine, Macmillan, Baldwin, Chamberlain, Disraeli often supported government intervention.

    As a laissez faire liberal you fail to understand Toryism is a middle way between socialism and laissez faire liberalism economically (something ex LD Truss failed to grasp too), sometimes Tory governments will intervene if needed, especially due to high levels of current food prices post Ukraine war. That doesn't mean nationalising most industry however as socialists would or putting up tax levels very high.

    Indeed Thatcher was arguably more a laissez faire Gladstone Liberal herself than patrician Tory
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983

    Taz said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    There’s more than an air of desperation about this shower at the moment.

    However Food inflation may well have peaked.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-12119149/When-food-prices-start-fall.html
    As well as the price rises there has also been a noticeable drop in quality. So if supermarket fruit has gone up 20%, it is probably more like 30-40% for a similar quality piece of fruit rather than what that particular supermarket was selling in 2021 vs what it is now selling in 2023.
    Supermarket fruit quality has imo been hit by dropping dates off the packaging. It is said to reduce waste but perhaps just at the shop end because I seem to be throwing more away than before (which was none).
    A thing that we take for granted in the UK that doesn't apply in France is that you can buy all types of fruits throughout the year. You can't for example buy melons in Feb/March and you cant buy clementines tangerines now. And that is anywhere and applies to the very largest of supermarkets
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    edited May 2023

    DougSeal said:

    Price controls! FFS…

    It's French socialism.

    I'll say it again, Brexiteer Tories are intent on delivering Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto pledges.

    Brexit = Socialism.

    This is what I said last night.

    Sunak will end up paying private equity to subsidise food prices in supermarkets. I'm sure the likes of Clayton, Dubilier, & Rice, and the Issa Brothers will love it.
    French socialism? It's British Conservatism. Ted Heath had a Price Commission too. (Alongside power cuts -- have you seen the price of posh scented candles?)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    DavidL said:

    The most obvious source of chaos after the next election would be 300+ Tory MPs short of a majority, with no one willing to give them any support but an effective blocking minority making any kind of stable, alternative government impossible. This would need a fair old swing back from where we are now but it is far from impossible. And idiocy on this scale will not help: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-28/starmer-plans-to-block-new-north-sea-oil-gas-projects-times?leadSource=uverify wall

    Ideally, I'd like Sunak with a majority of 100+ so he can govern sensibly.

    Without it I'd probably prefer the Conservatives to go into opposition with 250 seats+ and the nutters to be purged once there.
    The people who need to be purged are those who think their own greed is more important than the aspiration of the young.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2023
    Taz said:

    Tories toying with central government setting supermarket prices now! Those revolutionary communists certainly have changed the party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944

    There’s more than an air of desperation about this shower at the moment.

    However Food inflation may well have peaked.

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-12119149/When-food-prices-start-fall.html
    This is what Joe Biden did with petrol prices. When the price of the inputs has peaked, but it hasn't really reached the consumer yet, make a big show of demanding that the retailers lower prices. Wait a couple of weeks and hey presto, your orders have been followed and the customers are saved. Thank you, Dark Brandon!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    On Topic

    SKS Fan -"Toxic legacy"

    Toxic legacy my arse, you are Peter Mandleson and I claim my prize

    SKS has staked all on being Toxic to Socialists and will be lucky to crawl over the line due to 2024 having a "time is up for the Tories" feel about it,

    It is hard to work out whether the delusions trump the obsessions or vice versa.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,263

    DavidL said:

    The most obvious source of chaos after the next election would be 300+ Tory MPs short of a majority, with no one willing to give them any support but an effective blocking minority making any kind of stable, alternative government impossible. This would need a fair old swing back from where we are now but it is far from impossible. And idiocy on this scale will not help: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-28/starmer-plans-to-block-new-north-sea-oil-gas-projects-times?leadSource=uverify wall

    Ideally, I'd like Sunak with a majority of 100+ so he can govern sensibly.

    Without it I'd probably prefer the Conservatives to go into opposition with 250 seats+ and the nutters to be purged once there.
    If he can’t govern sensibly with his current majority, the Tories are simply not fit to be in government.
    100 plus majority “so he can govern sensibly”; FFS.

    There in a nutshell if why we should have PR. We continually have parties of both left and right, commanding only a plurality of the vote, believing somehow that they have a special right to govern.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2023

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Tories still ahead in rural areas though 41% to 36% for Labour and 13% for the LDs on that poll
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    "thanks largely to the toxic legacy bequeathed to Sir Keir Starmer by his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn." Parties get the leaders they deserve!

    Labour certainly did with Corbyn. A supreme act of self-indulgence that went badly wrong. Sadly, it cost the nation dearly as well.
    I was mainly thinking of the Conservative Party!!
    I feel that Corbyn was an affliction on both parties. With Labour the effects are obvious, but Corbyn's presence also gave the Tories a completely free hand to indulge their more lunatic fancies since they were effectively running a one-party state with Corbyn wrecking Labour.

    The country has suffered terribly from the lack of leadership that Corbyn caused in both parties.
    But not long to go. We can all look forward to a few Portillo moments though this lot have been so ghastly just watching them lose their seat doesn't seem adequate. Certainly not for Braverman. I'd like to see her frogmarched onto a plane to Rwanda while the nation cheered
    Brexit still happened.
    Even just reading it sounds like a bad dream
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Price controls! FFS…

    It's French socialism.

    I'll say it again, Brexiteer Tories are intent on delivering Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto pledges.

    Brexit = Socialism.

    This is what I said last night.

    Sunak will end up paying private equity to subsidise food prices in supermarkets. I'm sure the likes of Clayton, Dubilier, & Rice, and the Issa Brothers will love it.
    Edward Heath delivered price controls in 1972. Michael Heseltine, Macmillan, Baldwin, Chamberlain, Disraeli often supported government intervention.

    As a laissez faire liberal you fail to understand Toryism is a middle way between socialism and laissez faire liberalism economically, sometimes government will intervene if needed, especially due to high level of current food prices post Ukraine war. That doesn't mean nationalising most industry however as socialists would or putting up tax levels very high.

    Indeed Thatcher was arguably more a laissez faire Gladstone Liberal herself than patrician Tory
    The problem isn't the level of food prices its the level of house prices.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,947

    Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)

    A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.

    Non-paywalled CLA site with downloadable pdf:-

    'Rural Wall' collapsing as Conservative support in rural England falls by 18 points
    https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/
    Rees mogg a gonner.?.. what larks!!.
    JRM will lose if all the opposition rallies around Labour.

    Labour/LD/Green combined ran him pretty close even in GE2019 - question is whether it splits evenly across Labour/LD again.

    Trouble is it is easier to get angry Tories to vote LD than Lab in a place like this. I think only the LDs can win in this seat and convincing the elector you are the challenger when you are behind Lab is harder unless it is by election so he is likely to be safe because of a split vote. It would need Lab to really back off which I can't see.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806

    On Topic

    SKS Fan -"Toxic legacy"

    Toxic legacy my arse, you are Peter Mandleson and I claim my prize

    SKS has staked all on being Toxic to Socialists and will be lucky to crawl over the line due to 2024 having a "time is up for the Tories" feel about it,

    Zzzzz....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    DougSeal said:

    Starmer may be uninspiring but he doesn’t go out of his way to alienate (in no particular order) civil servants, lawyers, immigrants, the children of immigrants, the young, the not quite so young, railway workers, teachers, Irish, Scots & Welsh people, Londoners, university lecturers, people who eat tofu, the poor, aspiring homeowners, liberals, Europhiles…there are no doubt others.

    As soon as the Conservatives find a base they want to appeal to Starmer has a problem. Until then all he has to do is not offend the people the Tories are.

    The Conservative government upsetting its natural supporters was an underplayed part of Labour's 1997 landslide. Ken Clarke in particular was a serial offender as he moved from department to department, and he was a key mover in the ERM debacle which cost many their homes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,976
    edited May 2023

    On Topic

    SKS Fan -"Toxic legacy"

    Toxic legacy my arse, you are Peter Mandleson and I claim my prize

    SKS has staked all on being Toxic to Socialists and will be lucky to crawl over the line due to 2024 having a "time is up for the Tories" feel about it,

    Corbyn bequeathed Starmer just 202 MPs, that’s toxic.

    When Corbyn became leader he had 232 MPs, he left the Labour Party in a worse state than he inherited.

    That is toxic.

    PS - I’m not a SKS fan, I’m not voting Labour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Price controls! FFS…

    It's French socialism.

    I'll say it again, Brexiteer Tories are intent on delivering Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto pledges.

    Brexit = Socialism.

    This is what I said last night.

    Sunak will end up paying private equity to subsidise food prices in supermarkets. I'm sure the likes of Clayton, Dubilier, & Rice, and the Issa Brothers will love it.
    Edward Heath delivered price controls in 1972. Michael Heseltine, Macmillan, Baldwin, Chamberlain, Disraeli often supported government intervention.

    As a laissez faire liberal you fail to understand Toryism is a middle way between socialism and laissez faire liberalism economically, sometimes Tory governments will intervene if needed, especially due to high levels of current food prices post Ukraine war. That doesn't mean nationalising most industry however as socialists would or putting up tax levels very high.

    Indeed Thatcher was arguably more a laissez faire Gladstone Liberal herself than patrician Tory
    Sunak could suggest the collectivisation of all farms and you'd find a way to support it as official party policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Price controls! FFS…

    It's French socialism.

    I'll say it again, Brexiteer Tories are intent on delivering Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto pledges.

    Brexit = Socialism.

    This is what I said last night.

    Sunak will end up paying private equity to subsidise food prices in supermarkets. I'm sure the likes of Clayton, Dubilier, & Rice, and the Issa Brothers will love it.
    Edward Heath delivered price controls in 1972. Michael Heseltine, Macmillan, Baldwin, Chamberlain, Disraeli often supported government intervention.

    As a laissez faire liberal you fail to understand Toryism is a middle way between socialism and laissez faire liberalism economically, sometimes government will intervene if needed, especially due to high level of current food prices post Ukraine war. That doesn't mean nationalising most industry however as socialists would or putting up tax levels very high.

    Indeed Thatcher was arguably more a laissez faire Gladstone Liberal herself than patrician Tory
    The problem isn't the level of food prices its the level of house prices.
    Not north of Watford it isn't and Local Tory councils did propose local plans with lots of new housing until on May 4th most home counties councils went NOC Independent and Green or LD in a NIMBY revolt
This discussion has been closed.