The new coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
The new coalition of chaos – politicalbetting.com
New from @IpsosUK: Why coalition of chaos narrative unlikely to particularly help the Conservatives.Public more likely to expect chaos if Tories win with no majority than if Labour do the samehttps://t.co/zCZ4eBX4s1 pic.twitter.com/85i8XQn1ms
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You also have dogs?
Daylight at 5am is a peculiar feature of this time of year.
F1: I slept abysmally, so we'll see if that gives me a half-asleep wisdom when trying to find value at the worst circuit of the calendar...
Betting PostF1: I've still got stuff to peruse but Ocon is 2.5 for a podium yet 36 (Ladbrokes, boosted) to win each way. I've backed the latter. He starts 3rd and unless he screws up the start he's got a very high chance of being top three. Passing's impossible and drivers tend to be as slow as they can to avoid the tyres going off and forcing a pit stop which may be inopportune.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/27/tories-face-huge-losses-rural-next-election/ (£££)
A Survation poll for the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) suggests Tories might lose 21 seats in the rural wall, including those of Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox.
'Rural Wall' collapsing as Conservative support in rural England falls by 18 points
https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/
via GIPHY
It’s surprising that their support is as high as 29%.
That said, it would be lovely to see all those Tory bastards fall. Especially Rees-Mogg.
Indeed, the Forest of Dean was traditionally a very safe Labour seat until 1979 when Paul Marland narrowly won it. Thus was due to its coal mining and the associated workforce. In any case, it isn't actually particularly rural. Most of its population lives in five medium-sized towns - Cinderford, Lydney, Coleford, Mitcheldean and Newent.
If that's their idea of a 'rural wall' they need to get out more.
Cannock Chase would be another example. It's considered rural by many, but it isn't. Sure, it's got Cannock Chase in it but the voters don't live in Cannock Chase, they live in the Cannock Urban Area and Rugeley, the latter of which is one of the most deprived towns in England.
Because if Putin dies Lukashenko is finished anyway, so we'd get two for the price of one.
I was amused though at the implied correlation!
but so is it's history and this is Grand Prix number eighty.
All through the principality are archives of black and white photographs of Princess Grace and Prince Rainier set against the colourful Grand Prix stalls and screens and it works surprisingly well. It's so multinational Suella would have a seizure
The 76th film festival at Cannes by contrast though still glamorous can be pretty tacky. This year it's been taken over by 'influencers'. Girls doing ever crazier stunts to get noticed. Many finding a way onto the Red Carpet to the chagrin of the film makers. But the good news is that Jonathan Glazer won the Grand Prix (not that one) for 'The Zone of Interest'
I'm not worried about fear of a Labour minority, as I think in current circumstances it would drive some bite the bullet and vote more for Labour rather than the converse.
The country has suffered terribly from the lack of leadership that Corbyn caused in both parties.
It's FPTP and it's possibly the Conservatives clock 29-30% nationally whilst not really being particularly strong in any seat, anywhere.
But, that'd just get them back to par, not to winning an election.
One wonder if the organisation is secretly staffed by very effective Deep Labour agents.
Good morning to all.
I’m very, very far from being some kind of political insider, but I do happen to know, not well but cordially enough on the odd occasion I see them, a few councillors. A couple of whom have gone on to become MPs. I’d happily vote for them. Even - shudder - the Tory ones. Because they’re good, principled, decent people.
There’s a Lib Dem I know ever so slightly I wouldn’t piss on if he was on fire.
The further up they chain they go though I suspect, sadly, the less pure they become. Politics - it’s a shit business.
Which would mean that there's more people living in less populous places.
Of course this then leads to a discussion of what is urban/rural or town/village.
Labour/LD/Green combined ran him pretty close even in GE2019 - question is whether it splits evenly across Labour/LD again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65736944
If Sunak manages to defy the odds and stay in power, the Tories may manage to sort themselves out as competence and pragmatism will have delivered. But if he loses, the future looks bleak.
Labour has layers of internal power that constrain a leader’s freedom to act. These do not exist in the Conservative party. A leader with a strong mandate from members and MPs can basically do as they wish. If those members and MPs are broadly sympathetic to the NatCons, then it could be a long road back to power.
However Food inflation may well have peaked.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-12119149/When-food-prices-start-fall.html
To see how price controls work have a look where they have been implemented.
Venezuela for instance.
And given that you can buy 800g bread for 39p why do they think a price cap is necessary.
The risk for the Tory vote is that it is increasingly inefficiently distributed. 30-40% in red and blue walls. If the public votes efficiently to rid themselves of the Tories, it could be a disaster for them.
Once a group starts to coalesce around an organising belief, it becomes tempting to cut away any evidence that goes against that belief. Fine(ish) in a church, not fine if you're wanting to run a country. See Truss-Kwarteng for an example of this.
The Conservatives, in particular, have worn their beliefs fairly lightly most of the time. Even Maggie (real Maggie, not cartoon Maggie of campfire stories) was a lot more pragmatic than she was given credit for. Capable wets could and did advance under Thatcher; William Waldegrave joined the cabinet in early November 1990.
The party is much more monochrome than in the past- partly but not exclusively because of the Europe thing. Even if that was worth doing (and it's far too nice a morning to discuss that), it has come at a price, which is a higher propensity to groupthink and paranoia. Because it's now a Belief.
And, in the even that the Conservatives do want to try something less strident, it's going to be tricky to find a leadership team out of whatever is left after an election defeat. Much harder than Labour found it under Corbyn. He also Believed In Things to an unhealthy degree, but plenty of his party just wanted to make life nicer for the less well off.
But likely be all some can afford.
Yes, I think things are improving for me. Slowly.
Must say that, generally speaking, I am impressed with the NHS services.
https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1662536269270773761?s=46&t=rw5lNVUgmRPVyKpxfV_pPQ
The MoS provides an update on the MP caught in a brothel; he now fears he was the victim of a foreign honeytrap.
But a senior party figure doubts this theory, saying: “I can’t think of a single useful thing he could tell the Russians or the Chinese.”
https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1662526583221919744
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12131511/Tory-MP-naked-brothel-4am-feared-victim-foreign-honeytrap.html
The irony is that if the Government really wanted to force the Supermarkets to do things will they should be insisting that petrol and diesel margins for the period of 2022-24 are kept at the average margin they used between 2015-19 and watch 5-8p immediately come off each litre.
As soon as the Conservatives find a base they want to appeal to Starmer has a problem. Until then all he has to do is not offend the people the Tories are.
I'll say it again, Brexiteer Tories are intent on delivering Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto pledges.
Brexit = Socialism.
This is what I said last night.
Sunak will end up paying private equity to subsidise food prices in supermarkets. I'm sure the likes of Clayton, Dubilier, & Rice, and the Issa Brothers will love it.
It wasn't just looking back into the valley to see all the deep greenery, although that was sublime in and of itself, it was the light breeze gently carrying all the fresh smells (honeysuckle, cut grass, wildflower meadows, the budding oaks in the copses) together with the butterflies playing around and over it on top.
You can see why Hubert Parry wrote what he did. I don't want to die and go to heaven. Heaven is here.
We had our gardens open yesterday (and today) for charity - perfect day with lots of generous visitors. A golden days to remember.
PS You can post photos direct via vanilla PB but I sometimes find they end up on their side or upside down for some reason. I pop them on imgur and post using an image link as above.
Without it I'd probably prefer the Conservatives to go into opposition with 250 seats+ and the nutters to be purged once there.
So what went wrong ?
Not the policies as the country has trundled along but the revelations about the behaviour:
The hypocrisy of the Downing Street parties
The greed of the PPE contracts
The self indulgence of Trussomics
The bullying allegations of Raab and others
The tax affairs of Zahawi
The uselessness of Braverman
The scheming of so many
If the country votes for this lot again after the past 13 years of mismanagement, decline and scandal it deserves to go down the pan, frankly.
SKS Fan -"Toxic legacy"
Toxic legacy my arse, you are Peter Mandleson and I claim my prize
SKS has staked all on being Toxic to Socialists and will be lucky to crawl over the line due to 2024 having a "time is up for the Tories" feel about it,
As a laissez faire liberal you fail to understand Toryism is a middle way between socialism and laissez faire liberalism economically (something ex LD Truss failed to grasp too), sometimes Tory governments will intervene if needed, especially due to high levels of current food prices post Ukraine war. That doesn't mean nationalising most industry however as socialists would or putting up tax levels very high.
Indeed Thatcher was arguably more a laissez faire Gladstone Liberal herself than patrician Tory
100 plus majority “so he can govern sensibly”; FFS.
There in a nutshell if why we should have PR. We continually have parties of both left and right, commanding only a plurality of the vote, believing somehow that they have a special right to govern.
Trouble is it is easier to get angry Tories to vote LD than Lab in a place like this. I think only the LDs can win in this seat and convincing the elector you are the challenger when you are behind Lab is harder unless it is by election so he is likely to be safe because of a split vote. It would need Lab to really back off which I can't see.
The tragedy is that beneath this superficial beauty, our landscapes are thoroughly depleted of nature. In my lifetime populations of insectivorous birds have collapsed in lowland England. Once everyday species like Grey Partridge, Swallow, Cuckoo and Willow Warbler are now noteworthy. Butterflies I used to see in huge numbers are now found in ones and twos.
It’s great to appreciate our landscapes on a nice spring day but don’t let that detract from the deep environmental problems beneath. Beneath the surface much of the landscape has as much resource availability for wildlife as an industrial estate.
When Corbyn became leader he had 232 MPs, he left the Labour Party in a worse state than he inherited.
That is toxic.
PS - I’m not a SKS fan, I’m not voting Labour.