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Why I’m not convinced by LAB’S double digit poll leads – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2023 in General
imageWhy I’m not convinced by LAB’S double digit poll leads – politicalbetting.com

I have raised this before about current polling and there has not been any real change in the fact that a significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters continue to tell pollsters that they don’t know.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • An easy first.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited May 2023
    I'm not convinced either, but for a slightly different reason.

    Mid-term polling is meaningless as people aren't yet concentrating on the choice before them, but just saying how crap the current government is. Polling only starts to become strongly correlated with the result of the subsequent GE 3-6 months before. Of course there might conceivably be an election 3-6 months from now, but only if Sunak has a kamikaze streak.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Twitter, free speech, and animal torture videos:

    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1657070606687297536
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    It's harder for older folk to embrace change and when there's a paradigm shift, as there has been, they take much longer to catch up.

    FWIW I was convinced in the run up to 1997 that the polls were wrong. They weren't. And they aren't now.

    Omnisis, which correctly predicted the local NEV vote lead of Labour at 7%, now have the national lead at 27%.

    You only have to go out and listen to people to know that the polls aren't wrong. I have never known such an anti-tory anger - not even in the run up to 1997.

    It will be a Labour landslide.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    .

    I am keeping balanced

    No you aren't.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    And this tory trope that these are mid-terms are hilarious. There is a maximum 16 months until the next General Election is called.

    People are VERY focused. They want to give the tories an absolute kicking.

    I was thinking they might scrape 200 seats but with the current trajectory they might not make 100. Probably between 100 and 150 but a lot depends on whether Sunak stays. People are starting to see him for what he is: an out of touch mega rich schoolboy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Heathener said:

    .

    I am keeping balanced

    No you aren't.
    I am a political better who looks to make profit right across the political lifecycle. So, I qualify and caveat my positions accordingly, and am always ready to adjust them.

    I am happy to listen to any new or alternative evidence sources, together with the analysis, that might inform refinement of my position.

    Do you have any?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    I am assuming the data driving the bagel chart is the raw return Opinium got, not after they added swing back/stay at home methodology - but I made the same point as this header to crowing Heathener in the previous thread, Sunak’s spring surge was built on D/K coming home, to presume in a GE they will come home is fair assessment, based on history. So the real position has the Tory’s far better off than current polling being commented on.

    However, Another figure just as relevant might be the 16% now saying Labour - several PBers have done calculation to say the figure is historically high, higher than what Blair achieved in 1997. But the same calculations showed it still needed a lot of stay at home Tories for the big 97 result. So on topic yes, historically there is swingback. Yet no, sometimes there isn’t, and that lack of mid term DK showing up on the day, staying home on the day, creates carnage because it makes the 16% switchers into something like away goals count double.

    1997 resulted in a big majority because Blair started 70 seats better off than Starmer, Labour need as many or more wins than Blair for a simpler working majority. So I also like what Casino is saying, a meltdown of or grater than 1997 doesn’t feel believable. Despite years of polls pointing to it, Dave Cameron didn’t manage it on his day.

    So Mike is right, the falling short is still the smartest bet. But not a sure thing at all.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.

    Yes, “balanced” is exactly the word I’d use to describe you
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Heathener said:

    And this tory trope that these are mid-terms are hilarious. There is a maximum 16 months until the next General Election is called.

    People are VERY focused. They want to give the tories an absolute kicking.

    I was thinking they might scrape 200 seats but with the current trajectory they might not make 100. Probably between 100 and 150 but a lot depends on whether Sunak stays. People are starting to see him for what he is: an out of touch mega rich schoolboy.

    Are you saying that unless they replace busted flush Sunak he will deliver a proper meltdown? They need a shift to someone like Penny to save about 70 seats?

    They havn’t averaged beyond 30, Rishi’s ratings are poor and heading wrong way. It’s a fair assumption that voters have now had a good look at Sunak and really don’t rate him at all.

    It’s fair to say a lot of that though is self inflicted, over promising, shouting mouth off building up promise, and not delivering the promise.

    He’s got a poor, ungrounded, team around him hasn’t he, his advisors not just his cabinet. It was noticeable on Friday that Hunt just didn’t convince at all in the answers he was giving. I saw some interviews where he was asked some good questions, to agree with what was being put, how difficult things are and will remain, being realism, to big things up as going well as fantasy land, and he fell flat on his face between the two. Hunt a big beast? I think he never was because his communication skills let him down - in comparison with say Osborne, he just doesn’t have the strong or convincing reply to questions.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    The other very noticeable thing is that civil war is starting to break out and that never ends well for the governing party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65579691

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65555608

    This will be like 1997 only a whole lot worse for the tories because the state of the land is 1000% worse than then, when the economy was actually in decent shape.

    And those of you like (another right winger) MoonRabbit talking about starting positions are in for a rude awakening. December 2019 was a one-off 'Get Brexit Done' election up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotsykite. The more so because Brexit has proved to most people to be a shitshow.

    If you really don't want to lose a lot of money (to me) then your starting point needs to be the hung parliament of 2017. That's where Starmer really starts from. Not 2019.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited May 2023
    p.s. and assuming the right of the party are going to suddenly come on board is crap. They aren't and they won't. They have knives out for Sunak, the Boris slayer. The latest local election fiasco has proved to them what they knew all along: Sunak isn't up to the job.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,224

    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.

    That's what I would do if I were punting on this.

    Mike's right, and his advice is sound, but there's another relevant opinion here. It's Peter Kellner's dictum that those who don't know don't vote. Even if tactical voting doesn't take the Tories down, stay-at-homes might.

    So I might make that margin for error bigger if I were you, CR. Or.....

    I would follow another piece of advice from the legendary punter Alan Potts:

    'No bet is no problem'.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 583
    A lot can happen between now and the next GE, but if nothing significant happens then we are looking at something between a Labour majority and a Labour landslide.
    - The Tories are viewed by most (including 2019 Con voters) as toxic and/or corrupt.
    - The LDs have regained credibility in Southern England and will challenge in many seats.
    - The SNP will lose a chunk of seats to Labour.
    - Labour are seen as credible although boring.

    It is a perfect storm for the Tories.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    This meme was ridiculed on last night's Have I Got News for You, described as the Conservatives' clutching at straws:


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    DougSeal said:

    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.

    Yes, “balanced” is exactly the word I’d use to describe you
    Do you have any comments on the betting, or just ad-hominem?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.

    That's what I would do if I were punting on this.

    Mike's right, and his advice is sound, but there's another relevant opinion here. It's Peter Kellner's dictum that those who don't know don't vote. Even if tactical voting doesn't take the Tories down, stay-at-homes might.

    So I might make that margin for error bigger if I were you, CR. Or.....

    I would follow another piece of advice from the legendary punter Alan Potts:

    'No bet is no problem'.
    Yes, that's a fair point Peter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    edited May 2023
    Penddu2 said:

    A lot can happen between now and the next GE, but if nothing significant happens then we are looking at something between a Labour majority and a Labour landslide.
    - The Tories are viewed by most (including 2019 Con voters) as toxic and/or corrupt.
    - The LDs have regained credibility in Southern England and will challenge in many seats.
    - The SNP will lose a chunk of seats to Labour.
    - Labour are seen as credible although boring.

    It is a perfect storm for the Tories.

    Indeed the Omnisis yesterday would put the Tories on 20 something seats, not very different to the councillors that fell like nine pins last week in a real vote.

    The other factor beside the corrupt incompetence of the government and the inept leadership of Sunak is Brexit. This has been the core policy of the government but is seen to have failed in the Red Wall, and was always loathed in the Blue Wall. Voters won't blame themselves for it, they will blame the Tories.

    In 2015 punters weren't convinced by the collapse in the SLAB vote to the SNP, but sometimes the polls are to be believed. I think Lab Maj the most likely outcome, and it could well be a worse result for the Tories than 1997. Good riddance.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.

    Yes, “balanced” is exactly the word I’d use to describe you
    Do you have any comments on the betting, or just ad-hominem?
    “Thick skinned” is another one. You just let it wash over you. Admirable.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Heathener said:

    The other very noticeable thing is that civil war is starting to break out and that never ends well for the governing party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65579691

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65555608

    This will be like 1997 only a whole lot worse for the tories because the state of the land is 1000% worse than then, when the economy was actually in decent shape.

    And those of you like (another right winger) MoonRabbit talking about starting positions are in for a rude awakening. December 2019 was a one-off 'Get Brexit Done' election up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotsykite. The more so because Brexit has proved to most people to be a shitshow.

    If you really don't want to lose a lot of money (to me) then your starting point needs to be the hung parliament of 2017. That's where Starmer really starts from. Not 2019.

    How much have you got on a Labour landslide?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2023
    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    I struggle to see why it doesn't make sense. If you voted Tory last time then witnessed three Prime Ministers presiding over the worst government in living memory your first decision would be to do what's necessary to get the TORY government out.

    Decision two is how to do it. Probably labour but Lib Dem Green Monster raving loony....ABC. Anyone But Conservative would do. Which seems entirely consistent with the polls and a Tory evisceration

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Heathener said:

    This meme was ridiculed on last night's Have I Got News for You, described as the Conservatives' clutching at straws:


    Well I stayed at home and I will return at the GE and I know lots of other people who are gleeful that the Tories were ousted from my local council. They needed a kick in the testes and they got one. Might make the party concentrate on what Tory voters want..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.

    Yes, “balanced” is exactly the word I’d use to describe you
    Do you have any comments on the betting, or just ad-hominem?
    “Thick skinned” is another one. You just let it wash over you. Admirable.
    I actually quite like you but, if you prefer to just act like one of the Labour Herd, I am happy to engage with you solely on that basis in future.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    I think people are overreacting to the local election results. They were significantly worse than the Tories were expecting but not in landslide defeat territory, as @Sean_F has laid out. The rest is excitement.

    It's far more important what Sunak does in delivering over the next 18 months. That’s what will drive a clawback, or not.

    Unfortunately, he will now have the added challenge of sniping and a pissing contest over the future of the party all the way. He wouldn't have (at least not in a way anyone serious would have listened to) if losses had been down at only 400-500 seats.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2023

    Heathener said:

    This meme was ridiculed on last night's Have I Got News for You, described as the Conservatives' clutching at straws:


    Well I stayed at home and I will return at the GE and I know lots of other people who are gleeful that the Tories were ousted from my local council. They needed a kick in the testes and they got one. Might make the party concentrate on what Tory voters want..
    ......and that is kicking the boat people in the testes before herding them off to Rwanda which is one of the many reasons their support has melted like mars bars in a sauna
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Heathener said:

    This meme was ridiculed on last night's Have I Got News for You, described as the Conservatives' clutching at straws:


    Well I stayed at home and I will return at the GE and I know lots of other people who are gleeful that the Tories were ousted from my local council. They needed a kick in the testes and they got one. Might make the party concentrate on what Tory voters want..
    I almost stayed at home.

    @Heathener gloating on here was the reason I forced myself to the polling station in the last 30 minutes.

    My guy won by 13 votes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Heathener said:

    .

    I am keeping balanced

    No you aren't.
    I am a political better who looks to make profit right across the political lifecycle. So, I qualify and caveat my positions accordingly, and am always ready to adjust them.

    I am happy to listen to any new or alternative evidence sources, together with the analysis, that might inform refinement of my position.

    Do you have any?
    The correct challenge, I think, would be to remember that when there is a dramatic shift, most don't see it coming. Back in 1997, although Labour was expected to win, a huge landslide wasn't widely predicted (which made seeing Portillo et al lose big during the night all the more pleasurable). People didn't expect Brexit, or Trump, or the Corbyn campaign surge in 2017.

    So while my feeling is broadly the same as yours, we do need to be alive to the fact that our prediction is usually the default one even when actual results come in more dramtically.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049

    Heathener said:

    The other very noticeable thing is that civil war is starting to break out and that never ends well for the governing party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65579691

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65555608

    This will be like 1997 only a whole lot worse for the tories because the state of the land is 1000% worse than then, when the economy was actually in decent shape.

    And those of you like (another right winger) MoonRabbit talking about starting positions are in for a rude awakening. December 2019 was a one-off 'Get Brexit Done' election up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotsykite. The more so because Brexit has proved to most people to be a shitshow.

    If you really don't want to lose a lot of money (to me) then your starting point needs to be the hung parliament of 2017. That's where Starmer really starts from. Not 2019.

    How much have you got on a Labour landslide?
    There isn't much liquidity in the seats markets yet. Betfair doesn't have one, and the Smarkets one is severely under capitalised, so offers no value.

    I suspect Con under 200 seats would be value were there to be a market. I am not a spread bettor.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    The problem is that if one still believes the polls are so badly wrong despite the years of effort that have gone into adjusting the methodology, is there really an objective basis for political betting? Isn't it coming down to gut instinct? And of course, if one isn't going to take the polls at face value, gut instinct can take you in either direction. Your gut may tell you former Tory voters will go back home in the end, so that the polls are understating Tory prospects. Or it may tell you that the undecideds will abstain and non-Tories will vote tactically, leading to the opposite conclusion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    I think people are overreacting to the local election results. They were significantly worse than the Tories were expecting but not in landslide defeat territory, as @Sean_F has laid out. The rest is excitement.

    It's far more important what Sunak does in delivering over the next 18 months. That’s what will drive a clawback, or not.

    Unfortunately, he will now have the added challenge of sniping and a pissing contest over the future of the party all the way. He wouldn't have (at least not in a way anyone serious would have listened to) if losses had been down at only 400-500 seats.
    You're forgetting the relatively low base position that the Tories were defending - such that our HY was actually predicting Tory gains (especially from the LibDems) up until a month or so before polling day. That HY's gains turned into a loss of over 1,000 is a landslide defeat, I'd suggest.

    Also worth noting that whereas the Tories did badly in the 2019 locals, they did pretty well in the 2020 locals and hence the 2024 locals, on current trends, could be an even bigger bloodbath for Tory councillors....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    The problem is that if one still believes the polls are so badly wrong despite the years of effort that have gone into adjusting the methodology, is there really an objective basis for political betting? Isn't it coming down to gut instinct? And of course, if one isn't going to take the polls at face value, gut instinct can take you in either direction. Your gut may tell you former Tory voters will go back home in the end, so that the polls are understating Tory prospects. Or it may tell you that the undecideds will abstain and non-Tories will vote tactically, leading to the opposite conclusion.
    A pig in a poke or a vote for woke?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    I think people are overreacting to the local election results. They were significantly worse than the Tories were expecting but not in landslide defeat territory, as @Sean_F has laid out. The rest is excitement.

    It's far more important what Sunak does in delivering over the next 18 months. That’s what will drive a clawback, or not.

    Unfortunately, he will now have the added challenge of sniping and a pissing contest over the future of the party all the way. He wouldn't have (at least not in a way anyone serious would have listened to) if losses had been down at only 400-500 seats.
    Elections do tend to feedback into polls immediately afterwards, the winner gets a boost and the loser takes a hit. I’m not surprised.

    Sunak, in my view, needs to be bolder to differentiate himself from the recent past. He looks out of his depth and his ‘delivery’ looks like managed decline.

    He should also notice that the electorate have swung away from extremes back to the centre ground. He should follow them, perhaps remembering what took Cameron into number 10 and ditching the imported right wing GB news culture war bullshit. We don’t want that American stuff here.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    I think based on current polling and recent local election results a Labour majority is probable and a Labour minority/coalition government the only likely alternative. A Labour landslide based on the same numbers is realistic and probably underpriced.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,079
    What's the research on churn between voting and not voting? From memory, it's quite a big factor, especially when a party is losing big, like Conservatives in '97 and Labour in '19.

    In those sorts of elections, there's a slice of the party outer core vote that wouldn't dream of voting for the Other Lot but can't bring themselves to endorse the current iteration of their own party. So they just stay at home.

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    I think people are overreacting to the local election results. They were significantly worse than the Tories were expecting but not in landslide defeat territory, as @Sean_F has laid out. The rest is excitement.

    It's far more important what Sunak does in delivering over the next 18 months. That’s what will drive a clawback, or not.

    Unfortunately, he will now have the added challenge of sniping and a pissing contest over the future of the party all the way. He wouldn't have (at least not in a way anyone serious would have listened to) if losses had been down at only 400-500 seats.
    Elections do tend to feedback into polls immediately afterwards, the winner gets a boost and the loser takes a hit. I’m not surprised.

    Sunak, in my view, needs to be bolder to differentiate himself from the recent past. He looks out of his depth and his ‘delivery’ looks like managed decline.

    He should also notice that the electorate have swung away from extremes back to the centre ground. He should follow them, perhaps remembering what took Cameron into number 10 and ditching the imported right wing GB news culture war bullshit. We don’t want that American stuff here.
    The real impact of the locals is that, prior, Sunak was building some political capital with his WF success and having almost consigned the clown to finally having to hang up his nose. The local elections and the aftermath (particularly the renewed infighting) are knocking him back toward a weaker position where he won't be able to pivot toward the centre, even if he wanted (which is far from clear). I agree with you however that abandoning the alt-right and ultra-Brexit stuff and returning to a Cameron-type positioning is really the Tories' best chance of stemming what could be significant losses in the Home Counties.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,140
    Florida’s battle against woke continues… by banning some books on the Holocaust: https://www.timesofisrael.com/florida-rejects-holocaust-textbooks-for-falling-afoul-of-woke-education-ban/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Heathener said:

    The other very noticeable thing is that civil war is starting to break out and that never ends well for the governing party.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65579691

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65555608

    This will be like 1997 only a whole lot worse for the tories because the state of the land is 1000% worse than then, when the economy was actually in decent shape.

    And those of you like (another right winger) MoonRabbit talking about starting positions are in for a rude awakening. December 2019 was a one-off 'Get Brexit Done' election up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotsykite. The more so because Brexit has proved to most people to be a shitshow.

    If you really don't want to lose a lot of money (to me) then your starting point needs to be the hung parliament of 2017. That's where Starmer really starts from. Not 2019.

    (In article 1) When Priti Patel says 'If the Party leadership was more in tune with OUR values....' it sends a shiver down your spine
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    This meme was ridiculed on last night's Have I Got News for You, described as the Conservatives' clutching at straws:


    Well I stayed at home and I will return at the GE and I know lots of other people who are gleeful that the Tories were ousted from my local council. They needed a kick in the testes and they got one. Might make the party concentrate on what Tory voters want..
    ......and that is kicking the boat people in the testes before herding them off to Rwanda which is one of the many reasons their support has melted like mars bars in a sauna
    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    This meme was ridiculed on last night's Have I Got News for You, described as the Conservatives' clutching at straws:


    Well I stayed at home and I will return at the GE and I know lots of other people who are gleeful that the Tories were ousted from my local council. They needed a kick in the testes and they got one. Might make the party concentrate on what Tory voters want..
    ......and that is kicking the boat people in the testes before herding them off to Rwanda which is one of the many reasons their support has melted like mars bars in a sauna
    Bit early for your sort of nonsense Roger.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,077
    edited May 2023

    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.

    That's what I would do if I were punting on this.

    Mike's right, and his advice is sound, but there's another relevant opinion here. It's Peter Kellner's dictum that those who don't know don't vote. Even if tactical voting doesn't take the Tories down, stay-at-homes might.

    So I might make that margin for error bigger if I were you, CR. Or.....

    I would follow another piece of advice from the legendary punter Alan Potts:

    'No bet is no problem'.
    Yes, that's a fair point Peter.
    So 295-345 is a center point of 320.

    Shift that 10% up and we get a center point of 352, with an upper range of 377 in your 50 spread. That leaves Others with 273, and a Labour majority of 104.

    Shift it 10% down and we get a lower range of 263, which is Labour short by 63.

    That's quite a spread for a single apparently narrow prediction!

    (It's also 8am on a Saturday so I'm quite willing to believe I've overlooked some maths!)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    This is very difficult to interpret without comparable data for other elections. I have no idea whether the ratio of don't know to direct switchers is higher or lower than in the run-up to the 2010 GE.

    That's said, taking the numbers at face value, it's why I've said that Starmer has an opportunity. If voters say they don't know then it follows that they are more open to persuasion than if they already have a voting preference. It follows that the result of the next election depends on whether Starmer takes that opportunity or fluffs it. That's more a question of judgement about him, rather than something you can answer with data.

    I'm not convinced that 29 year old "New" Labour tactics are good enough. The world has moved on. Starmer and Labour need something, well, new.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,049
    Am I missing a market on size of a Lab majority? I cannot see one at present, other the undercapitalised one at Smarkets.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    This is exactly right. I quite like Sunak. For me he’s miles better than his four Tory predecessors, but I wouldn’t dream of voting for his party. They simply have to be held to account for what they’ve put us through since 2019, and inflicting Truss on us was the nadir.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    The government's voter suppression exercise seems to have hit 1.2% of voters if this report is accurate, with about half the targets being non-white. The number of people without valid ID was higher but a proportion were arbitrarily allowed by the polling station staff to vote. Presumably these were more the respectable looking elderly and white voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/13/local-election-observers-say-12-of-voters-turned-away-for-lacking-id
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,437
    FF43 said:

    The government's voter suppression exercise seems to have hit 1.2% of voters if this report is accurate, with about half the targets being non-white. The number of people without valid ID was higher but a proportion were arbitrarily allowed by the polling station staff to vote. Presumably these were more the respectable looking elderly and white voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/13/local-election-observers-say-12-of-voters-turned-away-for-lacking-id

    Completely disgraceful, but typical of our establishment, that no attempt was made at officially collecting such data as too "difficult".
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746

    Florida’s battle against woke continues… by banning some books on the Holocaust: https://www.timesofisrael.com/florida-rejects-holocaust-textbooks-for-falling-afoul-of-woke-education-ban/

    It looks like they are getting publishers to remove concepts like 'social justice' and 'critical race theory' from textbooks before they allow them to be used in schools. This is being applied across all topics.

    Regarding the holocaust, the article says in other places that DeSantis has mandated education about the holocaust in schools.

    I don't think this is ideal, and it may be counter productive in the long run, but it is very far from being a holocaust book ban.

    I think that as a parent I would probably be more concerned about what is happening to schools in 'liberal' states.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    Good Morning all.

    Starmer is certainly no Blair. And Davey is no Ashdown. However Sunak doesn’t have Major’s appeal either. If the LibDems could find an Ashdown or a Kennedy they’d be doing a lot better.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,079

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    Absurd times- yes, though I hope a bit less absurd than 2017-2022.

    And yes, Starmer is Boring. But the central prediction from here is that, one way or another, he's on track to be the next PM.

    1997 was a huge trauma for the Conservatives, one that took the best part of a decade to recover from mentally. But defeated Conservatives could (and did, and do) console themselves that they only lost to a genius of retail politics who wouldn't have looked that out of place in Major's Conservatives.

    If the Conservatives lose in 2024, it will be to someone who is undoubtedly a Lefty and politically a bit of a plodder. Someone with a distinct lack of fans, unless fandom includes "oh well, I suppose he'll have to do". What's that going to feel like?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480

    FF43 said:

    The government's voter suppression exercise seems to have hit 1.2% of voters if this report is accurate, with about half the targets being non-white. The number of people without valid ID was higher but a proportion were arbitrarily allowed by the polling station staff to vote. Presumably these were more the respectable looking elderly and white voters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/13/local-election-observers-say-12-of-voters-turned-away-for-lacking-id

    Completely disgraceful, but typical of our establishment, that no attempt was made at officially collecting such data as too "difficult".
    Indeed. Purely Trumpist politics, as they knew precisely it would be.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Heathener said:

    And this tory trope that these are mid-terms are hilarious. There is a maximum 16 months until the next General Election is called.

    People are VERY focused. They want to give the tories an absolute kicking.

    I was thinking they might scrape 200 seats but with the current trajectory they might not make 100. Probably between 100 and 150 but a lot depends on whether Sunak stays. People are starting to see him for what he is: an out of touch mega rich schoolboy.

    That's not quite right: it could be called in late December 2024, which is 19 months away.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    DougSeal said:

    I agree. The Conservatives losing more than half their 2019 vote in an actual GE doesn't really feel credible. We are still in the midterms, and much of the vote is on strike and making it's displeasure known.

    But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.

    I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.

    Yes, “balanced” is exactly the word I’d use to describe you
    Fair and balanced?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,079
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    And this tory trope that these are mid-terms are hilarious. There is a maximum 16 months until the next General Election is called.

    People are VERY focused. They want to give the tories an absolute kicking.

    I was thinking they might scrape 200 seats but with the current trajectory they might not make 100. Probably between 100 and 150 but a lot depends on whether Sunak stays. People are starting to see him for what he is: an out of touch mega rich schoolboy.

    That's not quite right: it could be called in late December 2024, which is 19 months away.
    Only if Jeremy Hunt is planning to fix the public finances by spread betting on the size of the Conservative defeat.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,437

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    Absurd times- yes, though I hope a bit less absurd than 2017-2022.

    And yes, Starmer is Boring. But the central prediction from here is that, one way or another, he's on track to be the next PM.

    1997 was a huge trauma for the Conservatives, one that took the best part of a decade to recover from mentally. But defeated Conservatives could (and did, and do) console themselves that they only lost to a genius of retail politics who wouldn't have looked that out of place in Major's Conservatives.

    If the Conservatives lose in 2024, it will be to someone who is undoubtedly a Lefty and politically a bit of a plodder. Someone with a distinct lack of fans, unless fandom includes "oh well, I suppose he'll have to do". What's that going to feel like?
    Judging by the few remaining fan boys on here it will split 70% double down harder and crazier and 30% please can we go back to being sensible.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Ludicrous!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Corbyn never cost us a penny in 4 years , whereas Truss cost us circa 100 billion in a few days
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Good morning

    The conservative party is in a very bad place and a Starmer majority is not an unreasonable expectation

    Patel, joins JRM and Dorries, at Bournemouth today at the Conservative Democratic Organisation (Johnson's disciples) to attack Sunak and blame him for evicting the conservatives best ever leader and being responsible for the local election results

    Self awareness is hardly her or the other attendees greatest attribute and I would compare them directly with the Corbynistas

    Fortunately they are a diminished group of conservatives mps and the vast majority of conservative mps will continue to support Sunak to GE24

    The fight for the centre of the party v the right is happening now and will continue until the right are marginalised

    It will be interesting to see how it pans out
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Otoh the Johnson debacle lasted a bit longer.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/may/12/eton-v-harrow-father-time-draws-near-for-annual-schoolboy-lords-jolly

    Somewhat taken aback by this ...

    "They didn’t have to worry about disturbing the neighbours at Lord’s on Friday, because there weren’t any. It may be a small crowd but the fixture is loathed by the stewards. Last year one of the boys even started letting off flares. The two schools had taken measures to prevent similar behaviour this time. The kids were all kept in separate tiers of separate stands, while the only nearby toilets were closed off, and each lot directed to their own block to prevent them from mingling. The rumour was that the schools had even set up a detention room elsewhere on the site."
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited May 2023
    With huge majorities, a separate thing worries me. Starmer may feel so secure that he can do what he likes, and he's still something of an unknown quantity.

    For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns over this.

    On the other hand, some more Tory-leaning posters will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.

    It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be completely and comprehensively.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    malcolmg said:

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Corbyn never cost us a penny in 4 years , whereas Truss cost us circa 100 billion in a few days
    Ludicrous!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Otoh the Johnson debacle lasted a bit longer.
    And of course, it is a standard trope to claim that "Labour subjected us to Corbyn" when in fact we were subjected to the Conservative Party for all that four years, and indeed rather more.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited May 2023
    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    The problem is that if one still believes the polls are so badly wrong despite the years of effort that have gone into adjusting the methodology, is there really an objective basis for political betting? Isn't it coming down to gut instinct? And of course, if one isn't going to take the polls at face value, gut instinct can take you in either direction. Your gut may tell you former Tory voters will go back home in the end, so that the polls are understating Tory prospects. Or it may tell you that the undecideds will abstain and non-Tories will vote tactically, leading to the opposite conclusion.
    I think there is a subtle but iportant difference betwen outright rejecting polls and claiming they are 'wrong' and recognising that they are fluid things which change with time and which only really represent opinion at the moment they are taken. Trying to make psephology a science when it is more akin to a dark art really is a mugs game. We know for an almost absolute fact that it is incredibly unlikely that the poll Mike is using for this morning's thread will be an accurate prediction of the result of the next GE result. As with so much in life, it really is about interpretation rather than raw numbers.

    So you really can say, as many of us do, that polls should not be rejected as 'wrong' but at the same time say that they need to be treated with caution.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,437

    With huge majorities, a separate thing worries me. Starmer may feel so secure that he can do what he likes, and he's still something of an unknown quantity.

    For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns on this.

    On the other hand, some Tories will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.

    It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be, completely and comprehensively.

    It would be silly to expect things to get much better. Indeed I am merely expecting a further slow deterioriation in the quality of government instead of the turbo charged collapse we have had since Boris and co took over the once conservative party.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Otoh the Johnson debacle lasted a bit longer.
    Yeah but the voters wanted it. And he remained popular for a long time.
    I don't get why labour don't focus more on this 'Truss cost us 100 billion' meme a bit more. Feels like a missed opportunity to me.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182

    With huge majorities, a separate thing worries me. Starmer may feel so secure that he can do what he likes, and he's still something of an unknown quantity.

    For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns on this.

    On the other hand, some Tories will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.

    It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be, completely and comprehensively.

    It would be silly to expect things to get much better. Indeed I am merely expecting a further slow deterioriation in the quality of government instead of the turbo charged collapse we have had since Boris and co took over the once conservative party.
    Much though I expect a Labour government to be awful, I'd probably rather a Labour majority than see them propped up by the LDs or SNP, or, God help us, Greens.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    The problem is that if one still believes the polls are so badly wrong despite the years of effort that have gone into adjusting the methodology, is there really an objective basis for political betting? Isn't it coming down to gut instinct? And of course, if one isn't going to take the polls at face value, gut instinct can take you in either direction. Your gut may tell you former Tory voters will go back home in the end, so that the polls are understating Tory prospects. Or it may tell you that the undecideds will abstain and non-Tories will vote tactically, leading to the opposite conclusion.
    I think there is a subtle but iportant difference betwen outright rejecting polls and claiming they are 'wrong' and recognising that they are fluid things which change with time and which only really represent opinion at the moment they are taken. Trying to make psephology a science when it is more akin to a dark art really is a mugs game. We know for an almost absolute fact that it is incredibly unlikely that the poll Mike is using for this morning's thread will be an accurate prediction of the result of the next GE result. As with so much in life, it really is about interpretation rather than raw numbers.

    So you really can say, as many of us do, that polls should not be rejected as 'wrong' but at the same time say that they need to be treated with caution.
    The risk for pollsters is that they are fighting the last war.

    I remember Martin Boon, then of ICM, pointing out if they had used their 2015 methodology at the 2017 general election they would have called the election spot on.

    Same for 2015 if they had used the 2017 methodology.

    They weren’t the only pollsters in that boat.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    The Conservative Party subjected us to Johnson as PM 2019-2022. Truss cost all of us, well the U.K. residents on the board anyway, actual money. Corbyn’s only ill effect on the country as a whole was letting this shower in.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Chris said:

    Jonathan said:

    What did Mike used to say about people who reject polls that don’t suit their world view? If I recall he could be rather cutting.

    The problem is that if one still believes the polls are so badly wrong despite the years of effort that have gone into adjusting the methodology, is there really an objective basis for political betting? Isn't it coming down to gut instinct? And of course, if one isn't going to take the polls at face value, gut instinct can take you in either direction. Your gut may tell you former Tory voters will go back home in the end, so that the polls are understating Tory prospects. Or it may tell you that the undecideds will abstain and non-Tories will vote tactically, leading to the opposite conclusion.
    I think there is a subtle but iportant difference betwen outright rejecting polls and claiming they are 'wrong' and recognising that they are fluid things which change with time and which only really represent opinion at the moment they are taken. Trying to make psephology a science when it is more akin to a dark art really is a mugs game. We know for an almost absolute fact that it is incredibly unlikely that the poll Mike is using for this morning's thread will be an accurate prediction of the result of the next GE result. As with so much in life, it really is about interpretation rather than raw numbers.

    So you really can say, as many of us do, that polls should not be rejected as 'wrong' but at the same time say that they need to be treated with caution.
    It was just the 15th February Sturgeon took everyone by surprise with her astonishing resignation, the consequences of which have fundamentally changed the political narrative, especially in Scotland

    In just 3 months so much changed and as is said 'a week is a long time in politics' and of course events which in the present government's case were dramatic with covid and the war in Ukraine happening in such a short time period

    There is no doubt the polls are pointing to a Starmer government, but with over 500 days to go the size and shape of that position is open to debate and will be for quite some time
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Otoh the Johnson debacle lasted a bit longer.
    Yeah but the voters wanted it. And he remained popular for a long time.
    I don't get why labour don't focus more on this 'Truss cost us 100 billion' meme a bit more. Feels like a missed opportunity to me.
    Keeping their powdder dry till closer to the election. The creative departments in every ad agency in London will be falling over themselves to pitch for the Labour account next year
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,006
    The main sense I get from Casino is "this is what I think, I am right, so if you don't think this you must be wrong". Followed by "you still don't agree with me? You must be MAD"

    It is very clear and simple - the polls and the locals show the way to a ruthless ABC vote. If that continues to be the public's driver, and they carry this out at the GE then not only do Labour win, they do so with a comfortable majority. Whats more they will find scores of friendlies on the opposition bench (LDs, Greens, Alliance etc) giving them a very comfortable majority to drive through the kind of reforms that will make the pro-Golliwog types cry.

    Swingback to the Tories is absolutely possible, made more possible if Labour do something really dumb or something mad sticks in the throat during campaigning (such as "or a coalition of chaos with Ed Milliband"). Possible, but as long as the Tories fixate on winning only the votes of the racist and/or stupid and repel their previous core vote, surely they are doomed.

    Perhaps Sunak needs to do a Major. Put up or shut up. Challenge the Boris lobby to take him out or do one. Deselect the worst offenders. And then have Hunt do retail politics Tory style. That could win back the voters who otherwise have gone and won't come back for 24.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Otoh the Johnson debacle lasted a bit longer.
    Yeah but the voters wanted it. And he remained popular for a long time.
    I don't get why labour don't focus more on this 'Truss cost us 100 billion' meme a bit more. Feels like a missed opportunity to me.
    On the PB Tory ‘Lab & Corbyn made us vote for the ghastly Boris, we therefore bear no responsibility for him’ metric, it wasn’t so much the voters wanted it but didn’t want Jezza.
    Scotland of course had its own programmes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    DougSeal said:

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    The Conservative Party subjected us to Johnson as PM 2019-2022. Truss cost all of us, well the U.K. residents on the board anyway, actual money. Corbyn’s only ill effect on the country as a whole was letting this shower in.
    Corbyn’s only ill effect.!!!
    Wasn’t that more than enough?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,437
    Cookie said:

    With huge majorities, a separate thing worries me. Starmer may feel so secure that he can do what he likes, and he's still something of an unknown quantity.

    For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns on this.

    On the other hand, some Tories will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.

    It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be, completely and comprehensively.

    It would be silly to expect things to get much better. Indeed I am merely expecting a further slow deterioriation in the quality of government instead of the turbo charged collapse we have had since Boris and co took over the once conservative party.
    Much though I expect a Labour government to be awful, I'd probably rather a Labour majority than see them propped up by the LDs or SNP, or, God help us, Greens.
    Well the Greens will get between 0 and 3 MPs, with 1 odds on. You don't need to worry about that.

    LDs will get 25-35 and were actually good in government in the coalition, if unpopular and electorally naive.

    SNP is an interesting one, with their vote efficiency collapsing in the 30-35% range. If the combination of a likely Labour PM rather than another Tory one, combines with the internal division and imploding of the SNP, which seems very plausible to me as an outsider, then they could cease to be a Westminster force and end up on 10 or so seats with little influence.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Otoh the Johnson debacle lasted a bit longer.
    Yeah but the voters wanted it. And he remained popular for a long time.
    I don't get why labour don't focus more on this 'Truss cost us 100 billion' meme a bit more. Feels like a missed opportunity to me.
    Some more unhappy bunnies coming ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/13/soaring-interest-rates-to-cost-uk-mortgage-holders-12bn-in-extra-payments

    'More than 1.6 million homeowners are expected to re-finance the fixed rate loans this year, forcing them to pay an average £2,300 extra a year in interest payments. [...]

    Richer households with expensive houses and large loans will pay the bulk of the extra cost. “However, the scale of the living standards shock will be greatest for those low-and-middle income households who are affected,” the foundation said.

    Repayments will increase by more than 4% of income for mortgage payers in the bottom 20% to 40% income group, compared with just 2% for those in the top 20%.'
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909

    malcolmg said:

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    Corbyn never cost us a penny in 4 years , whereas Truss cost us circa 100 billion in a few days
    Ludicrous!
    Too right! Ludicrous Liz!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,111

    I’m fairly agnostic about Eurovision (which may encourage public tarring and feathering in the current climate), but is the BBC in danger of frotting itself into a seizure over the event? It’s fcuking relentless.

    More like a corporate stroke.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341

    I’m fairly agnostic about Eurovision (which may encourage public tarring and feathering in the current climate), but is the BBC in danger of frotting itself into a seizure over the event? It’s fcuking relentless.

    Yes. R4 Today is going on about it relentlessly, and has done for some time. I wonder what proportion of the R4 audience (average age 103) follow this sub ironic eurotrash?

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,437

    DougSeal said:

    darkage said:

    Snip...

    It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.

    After Truss I think it would be absurd for the electorate not to give the Tories a deserved drubbing. People need boundaries and discipline, and if the electorate don't provide those to the Tories then they will simply go further off the rails.

    But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
    The other way of looking at this is that the Truss debacle was very swiftly corrected. Labour subjected us to Corbyn for 4 years.
    The Conservative Party subjected us to Johnson as PM 2019-2022. Truss cost all of us, well the U.K. residents on the board anyway, actual money. Corbyn’s only ill effect on the country as a whole was letting this shower in.
    Corbyn’s only ill effect.!!!
    Wasn’t that more than enough?
    And he didn't campaign properly on Brexit. And mismanaged his party during the Brexit negotiations. And Burgon and Long-Bailey.....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,006

    I’m fairly agnostic about Eurovision (which may encourage public tarring and feathering in the current climate), but is the BBC in danger of frotting itself into a seizure over the event? It’s fcuking relentless.

    I believe @leon knows something about frotting yourself into hospital...
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    Good morning all on this lovely sunny day from lovely Liverpool.

    It's a good job I'm not travelling around Liverpool today, because I suspect the crowds are going to be horrific.

    Oh wait.... I am.

    It's going to be a fusching shit show in town today....................
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    edited May 2023
    File this one under "guilty pleasure" - Norway's entry from last year (10th place overall):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDvXhZtcp0w
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480

    Good morning all on this lovely sunny day from lovely Liverpool.

    It's a good job I'm not travelling around Liverpool today, because I suspect the crowds are going to be horrific.

    Oh wait.... I am.

    It's going to be a fusching shit show in town today....................

    Are you going to be anywhere near Penny Lane ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-rB0pHI9fU
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    edited May 2023

    With huge majorities, a separate thing worries me. Starmer may feel so secure that he can do what he likes, and he's still something of an unknown quantity.

    For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns over this.

    On the other hand, some more Tory-leaning posters will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.

    It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be completely and comprehensively.

    I think Starmer will tack socially conservative as that's where he sees Labour's political advantage. He has committed to balancing the books, which he will have to stick to, I think. He does appear to be somewhat authoritarian, maybe not surprising as a former DPP, but his background in law is in human rights, so I suspect he won't junk that entirely.

    I suggest three areas where he might diverge significantly from Sunak: 1. worker's rights; 2. more support for childcare and families generally; 3. building houses

    The third one is interesting. I don't think he's spelt it out but he has two pledges that imply a lot more house building: affordable homes and growing the economy.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,437

    The polls matched the locals and still do if you believe the anti-Tory party is what this government is up against.

    The key number is Lab+LD+Green. All the polling shows it at 55%+. Most shows it at 60%+. That’s what the locals delivered.

    Labour is the generic, nationwide anti-Tory party, so stands to gain most in a GE, but in places the LibDems will benefit. Locally, the Greens can do their bit, but not in a GE.

    Obviously, there’s not a direct correlation in all cases (Labour beat the Greens in Brighton, the Greens took Labour seats in some places, for example), but by and large the anti-Tory party was rampant in the locals. How else do you explain 1,000 losses on the BBC and Sky national vote projections? Beyond the Bedford mayoral election, there were very few instances of divided votes letting the Tories through the middle.

    If I were a Tory I’d be very concerned indeed. As Casino says, delivery is now the only hope. That means people feeling a lot better about their own prospects and the country’s - while also believing a change of government will put it all at risk.

    I agree with most of your insightful post. However if you were a Tory, the data suggests you would be (at least publically) complacent and confident of stopping a Labour majority, rather than very concerned. Those with the insight and self awareness to be very concerned have pretty much all stopped being Tories.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited May 2023
    algarkirk said:

    I’m fairly agnostic about Eurovision (which may encourage public tarring and feathering in the current climate), but is the BBC in danger of frotting itself into a seizure over the event? It’s fcuking relentless.

    Yes. R4 Today is going on about it relentlessly, and has done for some time. I wonder what proportion of the R4 audience (average age 103) follow this sub ironic eurotrash?

    77% care not very much or at all
    19% care a great deal or a fair amount

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1656670495574745095?t=gFlheFuFbj-EzboXeQdfsQ&s=19
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/may/12/eton-v-harrow-father-time-draws-near-for-annual-schoolboy-lords-jolly

    Somewhat taken aback by this ...

    "They didn’t have to worry about disturbing the neighbours at Lord’s on Friday, because there weren’t any. It may be a small crowd but the fixture is loathed by the stewards. Last year one of the boys even started letting off flares. The two schools had taken measures to prevent similar behaviour this time. The kids were all kept in separate tiers of separate stands, while the only nearby toilets were closed off, and each lot directed to their own block to prevent them from mingling. The rumour was that the schools had even set up a detention room elsewhere on the site."

    Our lords and masters in some 30 years’ time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2023
    I'm convinced by the poll leads.

    The Tories are still immersed in internal civil war or staying home in a strop, and the number of positive developments occurring for them could be counted on ome hand. Divided opposition is much less impactful and Labour are not outright off putting, so are seerping up support.

    If delivering to turn things around was easy the Tories would have managed it by now. And the internal bitterness between factions, or aura of resignation, prevents delivery.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182

    Cookie said:

    With huge majorities, a separate thing worries me. Starmer may feel so secure that he can do what he likes, and he's still something of an unknown quantity.

    For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns on this.

    On the other hand, some Tories will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.

    It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be, completely and comprehensively.

    It would be silly to expect things to get much better. Indeed I am merely expecting a further slow deterioriation in the quality of government instead of the turbo charged collapse we have had since Boris and co took over the once conservative party.
    Much though I expect a Labour government to be awful, I'd probably rather a Labour majority than see them propped up by the LDs or SNP, or, God help us, Greens.
    Well the Greens will get between 0 and 3 MPs, with 1 odds on. You don't need to worry about that.

    LDs will get 25-35 and were actually good in government in the coalition, if unpopular and electorally naive.

    SNP is an interesting one, with their vote efficiency collapsing in the 30-35% range. If the combination of a likely Labour PM rather than another Tory one, combines with the internal division and imploding of the SNP, which seems very plausible to me as an outsider, then they could cease to be a Westminster force and end up on 10 or so seats with little influence.
    They were good in the last coalition. But my impression is that they've changed quite a bit since then. At best, it will be a coalotion of nothing-gets-done. Which I concede is not massively different from what we have at present.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341
    Thanks for the article. My guess is that on GE day Labour will lead the Tories by 5-10 % points. So Labour 325/6 seats unknowable.

    On polling (except Curtice on the day), the entire thing, in terms of truth, and whatever the method, tells you, at best, only what it says on the tin - including the small print. They are hypothetical answers to a hypothetical question giving a result which is entirely untestable and unverifiable. This becomes marginally less true closer to the election.

    GE betting is this: At the moment we are betting on a horse race to be held in unknown conditions, and some unknown jockeys, between June 2023 and January 2024 on a track never used before (boundary changes) with our data being the form book based on hypotheticals, not actual races, up to the first week of May.

    Bet accordingly.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,079

    algarkirk said:

    I’m fairly agnostic about Eurovision (which may encourage public tarring and feathering in the current climate), but is the BBC in danger of frotting itself into a seizure over the event? It’s fcuking relentless.

    Yes. R4 Today is going on about it relentlessly, and has done for some time. I wonder what proportion of the R4 audience (average age 103) follow this sub ironic eurotrash?

    77% care not very much or at all
    19% care a great deal or a fair amount

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1656670495574745095?t=gFlheFuFbj-EzboXeQdfsQ&s=19
    For comparison, the YouGov polling on the coronation was

    A great deal: 11%
    A fair amount: 24%
    Not very much: 31%
    Not at all: 31%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1654147039054135297
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    Cookie said:

    With huge majorities, a separate thing worries me. Starmer may feel so secure that he can do what he likes, and he's still something of an unknown quantity.

    For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns on this.

    On the other hand, some Tories will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.

    It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be, completely and comprehensively.

    It would be silly to expect things to get much better. Indeed I am merely expecting a further slow deterioriation in the quality of government instead of the turbo charged collapse we have had since Boris and co took over the once conservative party.
    Much though I expect a Labour government to be awful, I'd probably rather a Labour majority than see them propped up by the LDs or SNP, or, God help us, Greens.
    Can see that with SNP or Greens, but LDs would be good I think. Contrast for example, the Tories on the whole productive coalition with the disastrous consequences of their dependency on the DUP.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    algarkirk said:

    I’m fairly agnostic about Eurovision (which may encourage public tarring and feathering in the current climate), but is the BBC in danger of frotting itself into a seizure over the event? It’s fcuking relentless.

    Yes. R4 Today is going on about it relentlessly, and has done for some time. I wonder what proportion of the R4 audience (average age 103) follow this sub ironic eurotrash?

    77% care not very much or at all
    19% care a great deal or a fair amount

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1656670495574745095?t=gFlheFuFbj-EzboXeQdfsQ&s=19
    For comparison, the YouGov polling on the coronation was

    A great deal: 11%
    A fair amount: 24%
    Not very much: 31%
    Not at all: 31%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1654147039054135297
    Both are probably fairly accurate
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    FF43 said:

    With huge majorities, a separate thing worries me. Starmer may feel so secure that he can do what he likes, and he's still something of an unknown quantity.

    For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns over this.

    On the other hand, some more Tory-leaning posters will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.

    It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be completely and comprehensively.

    I think Starmer will tack socially conservative as that's where he sees Labour's political advantage. He has committed to balancing the books, which he will have to stick to, I think. He does appear to be somewhat authoritarian, maybe not surprising as a former DPP, but his background in law is in human rights, so I suspect he won't junk that entirely.

    I suggest three areas where he might diverge significantly from Sunak: 1. worker's rights; 2. more support for childcare and families generally; 3. building houses

    The third one is interesting. I don't think he's spelt it out but he has two pledges that imply a lot more house building: affordable homes and growing the economy.
    If a pledge merely implies something that implication can safely be ignored as meaningless.

    A direct pledge will often fail but at least usually shows intent.
This discussion has been closed.