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Why I’m not convinced by LAB’S double digit poll leads – politicalbetting.com
Why I’m not convinced by LAB’S double digit poll leads – politicalbetting.com
I have raised this before about current polling and there has not been any real change in the fact that a significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters continue to tell pollsters that they don’t know.
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Mid-term polling is meaningless as people aren't yet concentrating on the choice before them, but just saying how crap the current government is. Polling only starts to become strongly correlated with the result of the subsequent GE 3-6 months before. Of course there might conceivably be an election 3-6 months from now, but only if Sunak has a kamikaze streak.
https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1657070606687297536
But, it's tactical voting that might get Labour to a majority, even if this does recover.
I am keeping balanced on both outcomes with 295-345 seats +/- 10% being my central forecast at this stage.
FWIW I was convinced in the run up to 1997 that the polls were wrong. They weren't. And they aren't now.
Omnisis, which correctly predicted the local NEV vote lead of Labour at 7%, now have the national lead at 27%.
You only have to go out and listen to people to know that the polls aren't wrong. I have never known such an anti-tory anger - not even in the run up to 1997.
It will be a Labour landslide.
People are VERY focused. They want to give the tories an absolute kicking.
I was thinking they might scrape 200 seats but with the current trajectory they might not make 100. Probably between 100 and 150 but a lot depends on whether Sunak stays. People are starting to see him for what he is: an out of touch mega rich schoolboy.
I am happy to listen to any new or alternative evidence sources, together with the analysis, that might inform refinement of my position.
Do you have any?
However, Another figure just as relevant might be the 16% now saying Labour - several PBers have done calculation to say the figure is historically high, higher than what Blair achieved in 1997. But the same calculations showed it still needed a lot of stay at home Tories for the big 97 result. So on topic yes, historically there is swingback. Yet no, sometimes there isn’t, and that lack of mid term DK showing up on the day, staying home on the day, creates carnage because it makes the 16% switchers into something like away goals count double.
1997 resulted in a big majority because Blair started 70 seats better off than Starmer, Labour need as many or more wins than Blair for a simpler working majority. So I also like what Casino is saying, a meltdown of or grater than 1997 doesn’t feel believable. Despite years of polls pointing to it, Dave Cameron didn’t manage it on his day.
So Mike is right, the falling short is still the smartest bet. But not a sure thing at all.
They havn’t averaged beyond 30, Rishi’s ratings are poor and heading wrong way. It’s a fair assumption that voters have now had a good look at Sunak and really don’t rate him at all.
It’s fair to say a lot of that though is self inflicted, over promising, shouting mouth off building up promise, and not delivering the promise.
He’s got a poor, ungrounded, team around him hasn’t he, his advisors not just his cabinet. It was noticeable on Friday that Hunt just didn’t convince at all in the answers he was giving. I saw some interviews where he was asked some good questions, to agree with what was being put, how difficult things are and will remain, being realism, to big things up as going well as fantasy land, and he fell flat on his face between the two. Hunt a big beast? I think he never was because his communication skills let him down - in comparison with say Osborne, he just doesn’t have the strong or convincing reply to questions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65579691
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65555608
This will be like 1997 only a whole lot worse for the tories because the state of the land is 1000% worse than then, when the economy was actually in decent shape.
And those of you like (another right winger) MoonRabbit talking about starting positions are in for a rude awakening. December 2019 was a one-off 'Get Brexit Done' election up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotsykite. The more so because Brexit has proved to most people to be a shitshow.
If you really don't want to lose a lot of money (to me) then your starting point needs to be the hung parliament of 2017. That's where Starmer really starts from. Not 2019.
Mike's right, and his advice is sound, but there's another relevant opinion here. It's Peter Kellner's dictum that those who don't know don't vote. Even if tactical voting doesn't take the Tories down, stay-at-homes might.
So I might make that margin for error bigger if I were you, CR. Or.....
I would follow another piece of advice from the legendary punter Alan Potts:
'No bet is no problem'.
- The Tories are viewed by most (including 2019 Con voters) as toxic and/or corrupt.
- The LDs have regained credibility in Southern England and will challenge in many seats.
- The SNP will lose a chunk of seats to Labour.
- Labour are seen as credible although boring.
It is a perfect storm for the Tories.
The other factor beside the corrupt incompetence of the government and the inept leadership of Sunak is Brexit. This has been the core policy of the government but is seen to have failed in the Red Wall, and was always loathed in the Blue Wall. Voters won't blame themselves for it, they will blame the Tories.
In 2015 punters weren't convinced by the collapse in the SLAB vote to the SNP, but sometimes the polls are to be believed. I think Lab Maj the most likely outcome, and it could well be a worse result for the Tories than 1997. Good riddance.
Decision two is how to do it. Probably labour but Lib Dem Green Monster raving loony....ABC. Anyone But Conservative would do. Which seems entirely consistent with the polls and a Tory evisceration
It's far more important what Sunak does in delivering over the next 18 months. That’s what will drive a clawback, or not.
Unfortunately, he will now have the added challenge of sniping and a pissing contest over the future of the party all the way. He wouldn't have (at least not in a way anyone serious would have listened to) if losses had been down at only 400-500 seats.
@Heathener gloating on here was the reason I forced myself to the polling station in the last 30 minutes.
My guy won by 13 votes.
So while my feeling is broadly the same as yours, we do need to be alive to the fact that our prediction is usually the default one even when actual results come in more dramtically.
I suspect Con under 200 seats would be value were there to be a market. I am not a spread bettor.
Also worth noting that whereas the Tories did badly in the 2019 locals, they did pretty well in the 2020 locals and hence the 2024 locals, on current trends, could be an even bigger bloodbath for Tory councillors....
Sunak, in my view, needs to be bolder to differentiate himself from the recent past. He looks out of his depth and his ‘delivery’ looks like managed decline.
He should also notice that the electorate have swung away from extremes back to the centre ground. He should follow them, perhaps remembering what took Cameron into number 10 and ditching the imported right wing GB news culture war bullshit. We don’t want that American stuff here.
In those sorts of elections, there's a slice of the party outer core vote that wouldn't dream of voting for the Other Lot but can't bring themselves to endorse the current iteration of their own party. So they just stay at home.
It does feel utterly absurd to think that a defeat on the scale of 1997 is remotely on the agenda. But the comparable polling numbers are in that ballpark, and "not many voters are actually switching, the don't knows are shy Tories who will back us on the day" was a cope trope of the time.
Shift that 10% up and we get a center point of 352, with an upper range of 377 in your 50 spread. That leaves Others with 273, and a Labour majority of 104.
Shift it 10% down and we get a lower range of 263, which is Labour short by 63.
That's quite a spread for a single apparently narrow prediction!
(It's also 8am on a Saturday so I'm quite willing to believe I've overlooked some maths!)
That's said, taking the numbers at face value, it's why I've said that Starmer has an opportunity. If voters say they don't know then it follows that they are more open to persuasion than if they already have a voting preference. It follows that the result of the next election depends on whether Starmer takes that opportunity or fluffs it. That's more a question of judgement about him, rather than something you can answer with data.
I'm not convinced that 29 year old "New" Labour tactics are good enough. The world has moved on. Starmer and Labour need something, well, new.
But, well, we live in absurd times, and Starmer is, perhaps, unbearably tedious.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/13/local-election-observers-say-12-of-voters-turned-away-for-lacking-id
Regarding the holocaust, the article says in other places that DeSantis has mandated education about the holocaust in schools.
I don't think this is ideal, and it may be counter productive in the long run, but it is very far from being a holocaust book ban.
I think that as a parent I would probably be more concerned about what is happening to schools in 'liberal' states.
Starmer is certainly no Blair. And Davey is no Ashdown. However Sunak doesn’t have Major’s appeal either. If the LibDems could find an Ashdown or a Kennedy they’d be doing a lot better.
And yes, Starmer is Boring. But the central prediction from here is that, one way or another, he's on track to be the next PM.
1997 was a huge trauma for the Conservatives, one that took the best part of a decade to recover from mentally. But defeated Conservatives could (and did, and do) console themselves that they only lost to a genius of retail politics who wouldn't have looked that out of place in Major's Conservatives.
If the Conservatives lose in 2024, it will be to someone who is undoubtedly a Lefty and politically a bit of a plodder. Someone with a distinct lack of fans, unless fandom includes "oh well, I suppose he'll have to do". What's that going to feel like?
The key number is Lab+LD+Green. All the polling shows it at 55%+. Most shows it at 60%+. That’s what the locals delivered.
Labour is the generic, nationwide anti-Tory party, so stands to gain most in a GE, but in places the LibDems will benefit. Locally, the Greens can do their bit, but not in a GE.
Obviously, there’s not a direct correlation in all cases (Labour beat the Greens in Brighton, the Greens took Labour seats in some places, for example), but by and large the anti-Tory party was rampant in the locals. How else do you explain 1,000 losses on the BBC and Sky national vote projections? Beyond the Bedford mayoral election, there were very few instances of divided votes letting the Tories through the middle.
If I were a Tory I’d be very concerned indeed. As Casino says, delivery is now the only hope. That means people feeling a lot better about their own prospects and the country’s - while also believing a change of government will put it all at risk.
The conservative party is in a very bad place and a Starmer majority is not an unreasonable expectation
Patel, joins JRM and Dorries, at Bournemouth today at the Conservative Democratic Organisation (Johnson's disciples) to attack Sunak and blame him for evicting the conservatives best ever leader and being responsible for the local election results
Self awareness is hardly her or the other attendees greatest attribute and I would compare them directly with the Corbynistas
Fortunately they are a diminished group of conservatives mps and the vast majority of conservative mps will continue to support Sunak to GE24
The fight for the centre of the party v the right is happening now and will continue until the right are marginalised
It will be interesting to see how it pans out
Somewhat taken aback by this ...
"They didn’t have to worry about disturbing the neighbours at Lord’s on Friday, because there weren’t any. It may be a small crowd but the fixture is loathed by the stewards. Last year one of the boys even started letting off flares. The two schools had taken measures to prevent similar behaviour this time. The kids were all kept in separate tiers of separate stands, while the only nearby toilets were closed off, and each lot directed to their own block to prevent them from mingling. The rumour was that the schools had even set up a detention room elsewhere on the site."
For me personally, the biggest danger is that he's so comfortable that he feels no compulsion to reverse some of the most egregious Tory legislation, such as the voter ID laws or repressive public order legislation. I personally still may vote LD, myself, as a result of concerns over this.
On the other hand, some more Tory-leaning posters will be worried that he will be more left-wing than promised.
It's quite possible that he could be economically more radical, and socially more conservative, even slightly authoritarian, or else much of this will be junked when he comes to power ; but I doubt it will be completely and comprehensively.
So you really can say, as many of us do, that polls should not be rejected as 'wrong' but at the same time say that they need to be treated with caution.
I don't get why labour don't focus more on this 'Truss cost us 100 billion' meme a bit more. Feels like a missed opportunity to me.
I remember Martin Boon, then of ICM, pointing out if they had used their 2015 methodology at the 2017 general election they would have called the election spot on.
Same for 2015 if they had used the 2017 methodology.
They weren’t the only pollsters in that boat.
In just 3 months so much changed and as is said 'a week is a long time in politics' and of course events which in the present government's case were dramatic with covid and the war in Ukraine happening in such a short time period
There is no doubt the polls are pointing to a Starmer government, but with over 500 days to go the size and shape of that position is open to debate and will be for quite some time
It is very clear and simple - the polls and the locals show the way to a ruthless ABC vote. If that continues to be the public's driver, and they carry this out at the GE then not only do Labour win, they do so with a comfortable majority. Whats more they will find scores of friendlies on the opposition bench (LDs, Greens, Alliance etc) giving them a very comfortable majority to drive through the kind of reforms that will make the pro-Golliwog types cry.
Swingback to the Tories is absolutely possible, made more possible if Labour do something really dumb or something mad sticks in the throat during campaigning (such as "or a coalition of chaos with Ed Milliband"). Possible, but as long as the Tories fixate on winning only the votes of the racist and/or stupid and repel their previous core vote, surely they are doomed.
Perhaps Sunak needs to do a Major. Put up or shut up. Challenge the Boris lobby to take him out or do one. Deselect the worst offenders. And then have Hunt do retail politics Tory style. That could win back the voters who otherwise have gone and won't come back for 24.
Scotland of course had its own programmes.
Wasn’t that more than enough?
LDs will get 25-35 and were actually good in government in the coalition, if unpopular and electorally naive.
SNP is an interesting one, with their vote efficiency collapsing in the 30-35% range. If the combination of a likely Labour PM rather than another Tory one, combines with the internal division and imploding of the SNP, which seems very plausible to me as an outsider, then they could cease to be a Westminster force and end up on 10 or so seats with little influence.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/13/soaring-interest-rates-to-cost-uk-mortgage-holders-12bn-in-extra-payments
'More than 1.6 million homeowners are expected to re-finance the fixed rate loans this year, forcing them to pay an average £2,300 extra a year in interest payments. [...]
Richer households with expensive houses and large loans will pay the bulk of the extra cost. “However, the scale of the living standards shock will be greatest for those low-and-middle income households who are affected,” the foundation said.
Repayments will increase by more than 4% of income for mortgage payers in the bottom 20% to 40% income group, compared with just 2% for those in the top 20%.'
It's a good job I'm not travelling around Liverpool today, because I suspect the crowds are going to be horrific.
Oh wait.... I am.
It's going to be a fusching shit show in town today....................
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDvXhZtcp0w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-rB0pHI9fU
I suggest three areas where he might diverge significantly from Sunak: 1. worker's rights; 2. more support for childcare and families generally; 3. building houses
The third one is interesting. I don't think he's spelt it out but he has two pledges that imply a lot more house building: affordable homes and growing the economy.
19% care a great deal or a fair amount
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1656670495574745095?t=gFlheFuFbj-EzboXeQdfsQ&s=19
The Tories are still immersed in internal civil war or staying home in a strop, and the number of positive developments occurring for them could be counted on ome hand. Divided opposition is much less impactful and Labour are not outright off putting, so are seerping up support.
If delivering to turn things around was easy the Tories would have managed it by now. And the internal bitterness between factions, or aura of resignation, prevents delivery.
On polling (except Curtice on the day), the entire thing, in terms of truth, and whatever the method, tells you, at best, only what it says on the tin - including the small print. They are hypothetical answers to a hypothetical question giving a result which is entirely untestable and unverifiable. This becomes marginally less true closer to the election.
GE betting is this: At the moment we are betting on a horse race to be held in unknown conditions, and some unknown jockeys, between June 2023 and January 2024 on a track never used before (boundary changes) with our data being the form book based on hypotheticals, not actual races, up to the first week of May.
Bet accordingly.
A great deal: 11%
A fair amount: 24%
Not very much: 31%
Not at all: 31%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1654147039054135297
A direct pledge will often fail but at least usually shows intent.