LAB has 9% lead in BBC Projected National Share – politicalbetting.com

The Liberal Democrats with over 400 gains and many councils, some of which they have never held before. This is way, way above expectations.

The Tories being cuffed across the board, 1000 losses from a horribly low base is very bad. Greens doing well, despite losing Brighton. Labour pretty solid but not altogether convincing.

Game On.

Being as I have been banging on about the Conservatives voter suppression tactics for weeks. Have we any news of its relative success?

Omnium said:

Casino_Royale said:

squareroot2 said:

Dialup said:

Labour's lead will be up to 20 points now IMHO, momentum is on their side.

Bullshit

Both @Dialup (Horse) and Heathener are high on their own supply.

That said these are awful results for the Tories.

Dialup is clearly an ai. Or possibly someone pretending to be an ai

Apply the inverse Turing test

Dialup said:

I'm shocked that the party obsessed with women and penises has failed to beat Labour.

Almost like people vote on economics and not woke issues?

It’s not economics beyond we are paying £x,000 in council tax, and the things we used to see delivered have disappeared.

So in 2015 the voters voted Labour, in 2019 they voted conservative (or vice versa) based on promises and when they weren’t delivered the council returned to a variation of the 2015 result

Nigel_Foremain said:

stodge said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Heathener said:

Pro_Rata said:

At current Tory attrition rate (losing 31% of net council seats), the end figure would be 1046 losses.

If they do pass 1000 seat losses it will feel even more symbolic and significant. Despite the coronation 'distraction', the hacks will like to have an easy number to get their head around.

Is Sunak's position in peril? I don't know but there are going to be a lot of nervous and unhappy MPs on the tory benches after this.

On the contrary, I have it on good authority that many expected it to be a lot worse. A 9% Labour lead is a lot lower than many feared and whilst I think it unlikely, many will see that as not impossible to erode.

Sorry to piss on your parade. Labour are a long way from sealing the deal even tho Starmer has made impressive progress

Unfortunately "I have it on good authority" butters no parsnips (as someone else once said).

Last weekend, the Mail were claiming a "Rishi Bounce" would keep losses to 250 - others were saying 500 and we've ended up nearly 1,000.

How much "worse" were your good authorities expecting - 1,500, 2,000?

There have been a few decent results for the Conservatives - a couple of Councils regained following splits and defections and progress in some Labour areas. The heartlands of the Midlands stayed mainly loyal but most of the rest has been poor.

Labour may not have "sealed the deal" (whatever that means) but the Conservatives have a lot of work to do to prove to the electorate they deserve another term in Government.

Don't get me wrong, I think they are fucked, but so many Labour supporters on here think they are marching toward 1997, when in fact they might be marching to 1992. I actually think the country deserves a change even though I am concerned about Labour, but if Labour supporters think a 9% lead mid term is something to be cheering about then they might find themselves in for a shock even without a Sheffield rally

Fair comment and the biggest mistake people can make is to assume the future will repeat the past.

In both 2017 and 2019, the local election results were a desperately poor guide to the subsequent General Election. The Conservatives had a stellar set of local results in 2017 and had these been repeated May's landslide would have matched if not exceeded Thatcher's but that didn't happen.

We are, I would guess, just under 18 months from the next election which is an eternity.

I'm no friend of the Conservatives, as you can probably guess, and at the very least, despite what some may think, Sunak hasn't really given any sense of what a re-elected Conservative Government would do except continued managerialism.

Starmer has also failed to communicate what a Labour Govenrment might look like - I had the dubious fortune of being sent the Values Survey by Labour and it's quite clear Labour's offering is going to have elements of the Sun, the Moon, the stars, puppy dogs and no one having the wobbles.

Blair won because he accepted Thatcher's transformation of Britain's economy. There has been no similar transformation under Cameron/May/Johnson/Truss/Sunak - indeed, with the exception of leaving the EU, it's hard to know what the Conservatives actually have done with the last 13 years.

There's an argument for Labour to eschew caution for ambition - give people a reason to vote for rather than a bland vote against.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Not sure it makes strategic, tactical OR horse sense, for Conservatives to turn Rishi Sunak into their Fifth Stooge (aka Five Failed PMs) then flail about in search of Stooge #6.

Agreed. The Conservatives are not (bar a Black Swan) going to win. But, they should aim for a Labour 2010 result, rather than a 1997 result. Sunak is their best hope of the former.

My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

Andy_JS said:

Dialup said:

Labour has had an amazing night. The Tories have had a shocker.

Labour's had an okay night, because the LDs and Greens have done so well.

I believe in the context of where they've come from, I would call it amazing for them to be where they are now. A year or two ago we were discussing if they'd be around in a few years. So I stand by that description.

But I also agree with you that a pincer movement with the LDs and Greens will be ultimately what does for the Tories in the end. A big if, of course.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Not sure it makes strategic, tactical OR horse sense, for Conservatives to turn Rishi Sunak into their Fifth Stooge (aka Five Failed PMs) then flail about in search of Stooge #6.

The rump Boris loyalist fashion will use this as an opportunity to bitch, and some of the broader right will panic and demand traditional remedies like tax cuts (paid for, doubtless, by conveniently unspecified "efficiency savings" or by being extremely cruel to the disabled and unemployed.) But it won't threaten Sunak's position. He's the least unappetising prospect they have, and nor will they be able to agree on yet another replacement. Another leadership battle = implosion and something close to a Canada '93-level wipeout, and they know it.

Jonathan said:

The interesting thing is that anti Tory vote is organised. This may not be 1997, it’s something new.

Yes. I don't think there is any much genuine ideological conviction behind this. The demand is for centrism done competently and with a semblance of integrity. The majority has decided the Tories can't do this. Sadly they are right. But there is no overwhelming love for another party, unlike 1997.

So the best tactic is to put first Tory removal by voting for whoever can beat them (in Scotland for whichever union party can do so).

This movement will be in full flow by 2024. The media love a story. The tactics of Tory wipeout is certainly a story.

Bet accordingly on a GE with LDs doing well, and Labour possibly needing them in government.

LDs came second in 91 seats.

Casino_Royale said:

The Tories have totally shat the bed.

The way to do Brexit was to do a practical deal, clear it quickly out the way, and move back rapidly to economic prosperity and reform.

Instead, they descended into dogma, ideology, incompetence and venality.

I hate to agree with you Casino, but on this point you are correct.

geoffw said:

Omnium said:

Casino_Royale said:

squareroot2 said:

Dialup said:

Labour's lead will be up to 20 points now IMHO, momentum is on their side.

Bullshit

Both @Dialup (Horse) and Heathener are high on their own supply.

That said these are awful results for the Tories.

Dialup is clearly an ai. Or possibly someone pretending to be an ai

Apply the inverse Turing test

So dialup is the site hosts trying to work out who's human or not?

@PBModerator once again people are trying to doxx other users. I understood this to be against the rules here.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

That was not good expectation management that is for sure.

One wonders where the Tories would be without the Daily Mail's "Rishi Bounce"?

Mexicanpete said:

Being as I have been banging on about the Conservatives voter suppression tactics for weeks. Have we any news of its relative success?

Wouldn't it be hilarious if the Tories decided it had done them more harm than good and decided to try and reverse the whole thing in time for the general election?

carnforth said:

Cicero said:

The Liberal Democrats with over 400 gains and many councils, some of which they have never held before. This is way, way above expectations.

The Tories being cuffed across the board, 1000 losses from a horribly low base is very bad. Greens doing well, despite losing Brighton. Labour pretty solid but not altogether convincing.

Game On.

Not a horribly low base at all. Before this election, the tories had more councillors than Labour, even after 13 years in power. Compare with 1996, when labour had more than twice as many councillors as the tories.

Ahem. You need to compare like-with-like.

1996 was metropolitan boroughs, as well as a smattering (one third of seats) in district councils.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_Kingdom_local_elections

ping said:

@bbc

“Labour is calling it “a clear rejection of a prime minister who never had a mandate to begin with””

A fair point. I know the tories will argue the constitutional point until the cows come home. “But, Gordon Brown!” etc etc.

But to the general public, given the personalised/presidentialised way election campaigns have been fought in recent years, it’s a fair point, isn’t it?

It’s not just in the eyes of labour. In the eyes of many ordinary voters, Sunak doesn’t have a mandate to govern.

Especially if you voted for "Boris" not the Tories.

londonpubman said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

Unfortunately I am simply the latter. Not at the moment but quite regularly 👍

Then perhaps you should inquire at your local(s) re: a psephologist's discount for yourself . . . and others.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

From whom, and on what prospectus?

Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

From whom, and on what prospectus?

Boris. There is no one else.

Dialup said:

londonpubman said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

Unfortunately I am simply the latter. Not at the moment but quite regularly 👍

I'm down in Somerset next week, looking forward to becoming DialupPubman!

Yes Somerset is good. Lots of good pubs there. Enjoy it 👍

Dialup said:

@PBModerator once again people are trying to doxx other users. I understood this to be against the rules here.

You have heard of the streisand effect I take it?

londonpubman said:

Dialup said:

londonpubman said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

Unfortunately I am simply the latter. Not at the moment but quite regularly 👍

I'm down in Somerset next week, looking forward to becoming DialupPubman!

Yes Somerset is good. Lots of good pubs there. Enjoy it 👍

Thanks mate, looking forward to getting a few days out of London, work has been rather full on of late so looking forward to the fresh air of the pub!

bondegezou said:

Dialup said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Dialup said:

I don't think we're marching towards 1997.

We're marching towards 2010 in reverse.

I think that is perfectly possible

I think a tiny majority is feasible with Scotland but reasonably Labour will be somewhere around 300 seats IMHO.

I think in the election after they'll achieve a Cameron-style majority as the Tories do a Labour and go mad.

I agree that Labour will do very well in the election after the next, not necessarily because the Tories go mad(der) in opposition, but because voters often seem to reward parties that just scraped in on their first term.

Not only that.
But changes of the main Party of government have become exceedingly rare events.
1997, 2010.
That's two in the last 44 years.

Jonathan said:

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

From whom, and on what prospectus?

Boris. There is no one else.

Yep.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Not sure it makes strategic, tactical OR horse sense, for Conservatives to turn Rishi Sunak into their Fifth Stooge (aka Five Failed PMs) then flail about in search of Stooge #6.

Agreed. The Conservatives are not (bar a Black Swan) going to win. But, they should aim for a Labour 2010 result, rather than a 1997 result. Sunak is their best hope of the former.

Agreed, but there will be sniping all the way now from those who are too weak/shit to do better but enough to undermine him and the brand over the next 18 months.

Like the scorpion they won't be able to help themselves.

Seem to recollect something similar in year or so preceding 1997 GE?

Par for the course, esp. with a "PM over the water" or across the jacuzzi in BoJo's case.

NOT unique to Britain, not unknown in USA. As you may have noticed!

Dialup said:

londonpubman said:

Dialup said:

londonpubman said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

Unfortunately I am simply the latter. Not at the moment but quite regularly 👍

I'm down in Somerset next week, looking forward to becoming DialupPubman!

Yes Somerset is good. Lots of good pubs there. Enjoy it 👍

Thanks mate, looking forward to getting a few days out of London, work has been rather full on of late so looking forward to the fresh air of the pub!

I rather like the pubs in CrapPlace on the IoW - have you been there?

Razedabode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

They can have a leadership challenge. But not sure what that achieves - it’ll just ramp up pressure to call a general election

There won’t be a challenge until polling shows another Conservative MP getting noticeably more votes as potential leader than Sunak.

There is no such person, at the moment.

There must have been lot of tactical voting because the Tories have lost more seats than you would have expected with a 9% Labour lead.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kle4 said:

nico679 said:

What’s the point of this national vote share . It’s ridiculous to assume that the Greens and Lib Dems will get those percentages in a GE .

It provides employment for psephologists.

What we need is a Triple Lock! Now!! (Whatever the heck it is!!!)

Is that to keep the Conservatives in political prison? Three sets of locks to stop them escaping?

You cannot be too careful with that shower...

Jonathan said:

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

From whom, and on what prospectus?

Boris. There is no one else.

I very much doubt it. Even if the outcome of the Privileges Committee probe doesn't end with his being recalled and voted out of the Commons, would the unity of the Conservative Party itself survive a concerted attempt to manoeuvre him back into Downing St?

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

From whom, and on what prospectus?

Johnson and Trussites.

Former will say I can and have won general elections, get rid of the homunculus PM.

If Boris wants it, it’s his, isn’t it?

So long as he makes the final two then yes. The members still love him.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Andy_Cooke said:

pigeon said:

Andy_Cooke said:

noneoftheabove said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Well, I held on in my seat. 72% - 28%.

Vale looks very good indeed for us (and the Greens)

Well done, who is us!?

Sorry - Lib Dems.
We've held on to all of our gains from last time so far (despite it looking like a freak result in 2019) and even made further gains. Greens have taken out other Tories; they look to be becoming the official Opposition.

When we walked into the hall four years ago, the Tories were defending 29 seats out of 38. They were reduced to 6 four years ago and may end up with none after today.

Vale of White Horse, I assume? Went to have a look and yes, that does indeed look like a massacre. I noticed earlier that you guys have come close to a lock-out in St Albans; these results look similarly emphatic.

Yup. There's been quite a swing around these parts. We've also made it to a majority on South Oxfordshire - going into the election four years ago, we had only one seat there and the Tories had 33 out of 36. They have been smashed there as well.

2019 was an asteroid strike here for the Tories. This year has been the Deccan Traps.

You know more than I do Andy but my understanding is that there is a lot of anger in that part of Oxfordshire about fields been lost to housing and the Tories are blamed for this. Is that fair?

Not exactly.
There was a lot of unhappiness over infrastructure not following housing as promised (my area, amongst others, made a Neighbourhood Plan for even more housing than requested, but the promised infrastructure didn’t follow it). Then there was speculative development (which, when people had been promised that if they voted for these NDPs and the associated housing, they could control where it went, did make people angry).

Finances were crashing. We were in a Five Counties Partnership on outsourced services that had promised better services at lower cost, but gave worse services at a higher cost.

Etc.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

I got that.

It really really pissed me off.

I cannot repeat the language JohnO used.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

I apologise for my unparliamentary language when forwarding it to you. But it was fu@king atrocious.

TheScreamingEagles said:

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

From whom, and on what prospectus?

Johnson and Trussites.

Former will say I can and have won general elections, get rid of the homunculus PM.

Do you think Johnson and the Trussites could form a pact? Johnson as the leader delivering Trussite supply-side reforms.

So you can now travel from Portsmouth to the Potteries without travelling through a majority Tory or majority Labour controlled council.

Can we dig out the (was it) Greg Hands quotes:

We have got a good team in, who will push hard at Labour's weaknesses and they will know they are in a fight (or something similar).

He wins Sion Simon of the week, imho

dixiedean said:

Casino_Royale said:

I know my party.

These results are sufficiently bad to call Sunak's leadership into question.

Perhaps the issue is the Party?
Not the leadership?

Why can't we have both?

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

From whom, and on what prospectus?

Johnson and Trussites.

Former will say I can and have won general elections, get rid of the homunculus PM.

Do you think Johnson and the Trussites could form a pact? Johnson as the leader delivering Trussite supply-side reforms.

I think he wanted to do that anyway. In the 'last days' of his administration when he appointed Zahawi he spoke of looking forward to going for 'economic growth' with a new Chancellor - he knew fine well what Sunak and the Treasury's agenda was doing to the economy.

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

I got that.

It really really pissed me off.

"Dear Party Member

I know you are disappointed by today's results, but everything is going fine so just stop grumbling ok?"

…And give us a load of dosh.

LDs in areas up in 2025 may be annoyed, by then the Tories will be out and maybe there won't be such a surge against their candidates.

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

From whom, and on what prospectus?

Johnson and Trussites.

Former will say I can and have won general elections, get rid of the homunculus PM.

If Boris wants it, it’s his, isn’t it?

A good question. There can't be any doubt that he wants it, as Trump wants to be POTUS.

I think however the answer to the question is doubtful. The unexciting answer is: No. The Tory party would not be that crazy.

If I am wrong then we are going to find out. It follows as night follows day. Boris would pick his best moment - only when he believes he will win - and go for it. He won't do it on the off chance.

Betting should take account of this. If he goes for it, facts and prices will change.

My guess: he won't at least before the next election.

Omnium said:

Dialup said:

Omnium said:

Dialup said:

londonpubman said:

Dialup said:

londonpubman said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

Unfortunately I am simply the latter. Not at the moment but quite regularly 👍

I'm down in Somerset next week, looking forward to becoming DialupPubman!

Yes Somerset is good. Lots of good pubs there. Enjoy it 👍

Thanks mate, looking forward to getting a few days out of London, work has been rather full on of late so looking forward to the fresh air of the pub!

I rather like the pubs in CrapPlace on the IoW - have you been there?

To the IoW yes but not there. What beers have they got?

Many fine beers. I'm interested, do you have friends on PB?

I haven't met anyone on here in real life so I don't think I'd call them friends. I've got real life for that, this is more of an escape.

Dialup said:

Shall I have chicken fajitas or a frozen pizza tonight? No pineapple on it

With shots to celebrate the election results?

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Not sure it makes strategic, tactical OR horse sense, for Conservatives to turn Rishi Sunak into their Fifth Stooge (aka Five Failed PMs) then flail about in search of Stooge #6.

There is a vanishingly small number of people within the Tory Party who are comfortable with Sunak/Hunt and their policies. Sunak's entire raison d'etre is to win elections - or as his supporters here try to spin it these days, to minimise defeats. That is his purpose. There it begins and there it ends. If he can't do that, what on earth is the point?

Simply that, if everything you say prior to final sentence above is gospel truth, then it STILL makes no sense to chuck yet another Prime Minister and Conservative Leader over the side.

Just NOT a good look, on general principles. Electorally speaking.

As for Boris, track record for retreads ain't great. Even when (the minority) they actually win.

williamglenn said:

Dialup said:

Shall I have chicken fajitas or a frozen pizza tonight? No pineapple on it

With shots to celebrate the election results?

Maybe hard to believe but I don't do a huge amount of politics in real life, so unlikely. I was out last night at the pub quiz, so going to have an easy one tonight and then pub tomorrow

Mid Devon: LibDem + 21 councillors, Tories lose 13 (just five left for next time!), Greens +2, assorted Indys -10. I expect big tented Mark will be along to give us the inside story soon….