Sorry is MoonRabbit doing the usual contrarian bollocks where she pretends to not understand how swings work
With just 112 posts, how do you know what my usual election night bollocks are?
MoonRabbits psephology is only wrong if it doesn’t match your own hopes, dreams and spin.
I’ll give you a profound insight into my psephology genius for free. I don’t know why, because I don’t actually like you, but I will.
Politics should never have been measured on swings in the first place. Swings is all rubbish. We should be using roundabouts.
I have never read such bollocks in all my life. Get lost
Are you an incarnation of Correct Horse Battery?
You aren't supposed to dox posters you suspect of being former posters.
Anyway Dialup doesn't sound anything like Correct Horse Battery . Horse, don't forget, wasn't the most imaginative when it came to monikers. When he returns it will be as CHB4 or 5. I've lost count. It's a bit like the Rocky franchise.
I’m steeling myself for his returning as Battery_Horse_Correct1 , which could very easily throw me if I’m not alert
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Labour’s BBC PNS is only 0.3% up on 2022, so there is ammunition for BJO there perhaps. That is quite surprising if it holds at anything like such a tiny gain.
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssberg
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only not
5 Wagon. [Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren] . @BritainElects, you're a nice middle-class lad with an election website. This is posing.
CamelPhat & Cristoph - Breathe (ft. Jem Cooke). Much better.
Oh now that's just taking the piss (the song is not in English and has an accordion. Male voice choir). Could be anything from Irish to Russian to Indonesia. Sounds Russian tho
Sorry is MoonRabbit doing the usual contrarian bollocks where she pretends to not understand how swings work
With just 112 posts, how do you know what my usual election night bollocks are?
MoonRabbits psephology is only wrong if it doesn’t match your own hopes, dreams and spin.
I’ll give you a profound insight into my psephology genius for free. I don’t know why, because I don’t actually like you, but I will.
Politics should never have been measured on swings in the first place. Swings is all rubbish. We should be using roundabouts.
I have never read such bollocks in all my life. Get lost
Are you an incarnation of Correct Horse Battery?
You aren't supposed to dox posters you suspect of being former posters.
Anyway Dialup doesn't sound anything like Correct Horse Battery . Horse, don't forget, wasn't the most imaginative when it came to monikers. When he returns it will be as CHB4 or 5. I've lost count. It's a bit like the Rocky franchise.
Doesn’t sound anything like…
Who else do we know on PB who can lose their whole shit in an instant like that, when losing an argument or it’s not going their/labours way like tonight?
Anyway, the sky write up from Harlow.
Conservatives hold Harlow This council was one that had the potential to fall to Labour - with a loss of four seats enough to take the council away from the Conservatives. But it was a slightly tall order, as only four Conservative-held council seats were up for grabs in Harlow, and they would have had to lose all of them in order to lose the council. In actuality, Labour lost one seat and the Conservatives gained one. For context, the Tories only took control in 2021, and it had been Labour for the previous decade.
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssberg
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only not
5 Wagon. [Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren] . @BritainElects, you're a nice middle-class lad with an election website. This is posing.
CamelPhat & Cristoph - Breathe (ft. Jem Cooke). Much better.
Oh now that's just taking the piss (the song is not in English and has an accordion. Male voice choir). Could be anything from Irish to Russian to Indonesia. Sounds Russian tho
What helped to create the blue mirage last year was many of the Friday counts were full not partial councils, the Tory losses climbed quicker in the afternoon from what didn’t seem such a bad result at breakfast.
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssberg
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only not
5 Wagon. [Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren] . @BritainElects, you're a nice middle-class lad with an election website. This is posing.
CamelPhat & Cristoph - Breathe (ft. Jem Cooke). Much better.
Oh now that's just taking the piss (the song is not in English and has an accordion. Male voice choir). Could be anything from Irish to Russian to Indonesia. Sounds Russian tho
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssberg
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only not
5 Wagon. [Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren] . @BritainElects, you're a nice middle-class lad with an election website. This is posing.
CamelPhat & Cristoph - Breathe (ft. Jem Cooke). Much better.
Oh now that's just taking the piss (the song is not in English and has an accordion. Male voice choir). Could be anything from Irish to Russian to Indonesia. Sounds Russian tho
...and we swerve back: Tank [Action Bronson]. Oh bless. Kill me now
...and now it's something in (cross fingers) Hindi? Squeaky sounds and guitars. Am resisting urge to order chicken kurma and nan. Oh hold on, it's changed, now more eastern Europe. Whatever it is, you wouldn't want to go into his living room.
Still don’t seem right to me. Labour were below 28% on the election, rose to 28% in the PNE. With Tories falling back to 28%.
Just a guess but the 2019/2023 set of elections are disproportionately in Tory shire districts, with some mets but no London. Hence Lab get adjusted up from the raw votes and Con down?
Still don’t seem right to me. Labour were below 28% on the election, rose to 28% in the PNE. With Tories falling back to 28%.
Just a guess but the 2019/2023 set of elections are disproportionately in Tory shire districts, with some mets but no London. Hence Lab get adjusted up from the raw votes and Con down?
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssberg
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only not
5 Wagon. [Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren] . @BritainElects, you're a nice middle-class lad with an election website. This is posing.
CamelPhat & Cristoph - Breathe (ft. Jem Cooke). Much better.
Oh now that's just taking the piss (the song is not in English and has an accordion. Male voice choir). Could be anything from Irish to Russian to Indonesia. Sounds Russian tho
...and we swerve back: Tank [Action Bronson]. Oh bless. Kill me now
...and now it's something in (cross fingers) Hindi? Squeaky sounds and guitars. Am resisting urge to order chicken kurma and nan. Oh hold on, it's changed, now more eastern Europe. Whatever it is, you wouldn't want to go into his living room.
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssberg
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only not
5 Wagon. [Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren] . @BritainElects, you're a nice middle-class lad with an election website. This is posing.
CamelPhat & Cristoph - Breathe (ft. Jem Cooke). Much better.
Oh now that's just taking the piss (the song is not in English and has an accordion. Male voice choir). Could be anything from Irish to Russian to Indonesia. Sounds Russian tho
...and we swerve back: Tank [Action Bronson]. Oh bless. Kill me now
...and now it's something in (cross fingers) Hindi? Squeaky sounds and guitars. Am resisting urge to order chicken kurma and nan. Oh hold on, it's changed, now more eastern Europe. Whatever it is, you wouldn't want to go into his living room.
Still don’t seem right to me. Labour were below 28% on the election, rose to 28% in the PNE. With Tories falling back to 28%.
Just a guess but the 2019/2023 set of elections are disproportionately in Tory shire districts, with some mets but no London. Hence Lab get adjusted up from the raw votes and Con down?
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssberg
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only not
5 Wagon. [Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren] . @BritainElects, you're a nice middle-class lad with an election website. This is posing.
CamelPhat & Cristoph - Breathe (ft. Jem Cooke). Much better.
Oh now that's just taking the piss (the song is not in English and has an accordion. Male voice choir). Could be anything from Irish to Russian to Indonesia. Sounds Russian tho
...and we swerve back: Tank [Action Bronson]. Oh bless. Kill me now
...and now it's something in (cross fingers) Hindi? Squeaky sounds and guitars. Am resisting urge to order chicken kurma and nan. Oh hold on, it's changed, now more eastern Europe. Whatever it is, you wouldn't want to go into his living room.
Well, this is the point where the lights go up and you're either snogging or going home on your own. I'm going home. See y'all tomorrow for overanalysis of local election results and I'll make a @BritainElects mixtape. The cornflakes are next to the fridge, don't look at my browser history. Nytol
Still don’t seem right to me. Labour were below 28% on the election, rose to 28% in the PNE. With Tories falling back to 28%.
Just a guess but the 2019/2023 set of elections are disproportionately in Tory shire districts, with some mets but no London. Hence Lab get adjusted up from the raw votes and Con down?
The answer to that question is yes. Graph has RAW votes to PNE. Labour quite some way behind Tories on votes cast.
It could be my mistake here, I presumed NEV was RAW votes and PNE adjusted figure. NEV might be a rival PNE calculation trying to achieve same thing, not the RAW vote measure?
@MoonRabbit - Yes, they are rival numbers trying to measure the same thing, via different methodologies.
I do agree that the results could be a lot worse by this afternoon for Con. Lab are only up 0.2% on 2022 at the moment (PNS) which they will hope to improve upon later on Friday. They are around the 35% mark.
Still don’t seem right to me. Labour were below 28% on the election, rose to 28% in the PNE. With Tories falling back to 28%.
Just a guess but the 2019/2023 set of elections are disproportionately in Tory shire districts, with some mets but no London. Hence Lab get adjusted up from the raw votes and Con down?
Great link. So we have RAW, NEV and PNE measurement systems.
And the only one we know is totally accurate is RAW, the others vary due to methodology, but from your article pretty much mirror each other to say the same thing.
What makes me think it’s R&T versus Prof C in a “mine can do it better than yours”psephological buff off?
Still don’t seem right to me. Labour were below 28% on the election, rose to 28% in the PNE. With Tories falling back to 28%.
Just a guess but the 2019/2023 set of elections are disproportionately in Tory shire districts, with some mets but no London. Hence Lab get adjusted up from the raw votes and Con down?
@MoonRabbit - Yes, they are rival numbers trying to measure the same thing, via different methodologies.
I do agree that the results could be a lot worse by this afternoon for Con. Lab are only up 0.2% on 2022 at the moment (PNS) which they will hope to improve upon later on Friday. They are around the 35% mark.
Yes that is nicely cleared up for me.
The final seat loss for Tories looks on course for 800+ we can agree? Their PNE looks like it will be lower than 28%, but how much lower, 2 or more?
At this stage it doesn’t look like Labour can get either NEV or PNE anywhere near 40%, but could still sneak something like a 36-26 over the Tories? Lib Dem’s ordering more blue shoe boxes overnight to suppress the Tory RAW helps Labour out in getting the 10% win?
Surely we are shaping up for a far lower Lab NEV lead than in national opinion polls.
2019: Lab 28, Con 28
Change Lab +7, Con -2
Implies 2023: Lab 35, Con 26
You said NEV but quoted the PNE?
Apart from that I totally agree with you as just posted the same myself - Labour ate getting neither NEV or PNE anywhere near 40% or what they have been getting in opinion polls.
That throws up two psephological questions. Why? And does it really matter?
Perhaps it may - or may not - amuse PBers still await, to know that yours truly is alternating between keeping tabs on English locals, and watching a "Fraser" re-run?
Surely we are shaping up for a far lower Lab NEV lead than in national opinion polls.
2019: Lab 28, Con 28
Change Lab +7, Con -2
Implies 2023: Lab 35, Con 26
You said NEV but quoted the PNE?
Apart from that I totally agree with you as just posted the same myself - Labour ate getting neither NEV or PNE anywhere near 40% or what they have been getting in opinion polls.
That throws up two psephological questions. Why? And does it really matter?
If the answer to the first is LLG shared around, but GE LLG does a different thing, then the second answer is no.
Hull for example, more Lib Dem councillors than Labour, but 3 Labour MPs. Bristols another, lots of green councillors and green voters, 4 Labour MPs.
Labour falling way short in this election from the national GE poll’s, probably doesn’t read across into next years GE if we see 17% Lib Dem down 2% and and greens around 7.5% in this election, as that’s where the Labour vote has clearly gone, but we wouldn’t for a moment expect all those voters to behave same way in a GE, especially in lab v Con tussles.
This national vote share . Is this if for example the whole country had a local election today . How can this share compare to current opinion polls when the Greens and Lib Dems share would drop in normal GE polling .
Am I right to think the BBC are putting Labour 5% ahead at the moment in the projected national share?
Currently showing Lab +7 since 2019 (which would be 35 if it holds all through tomorrow) and Con -1 (to 27). So, 8 points currently.
That’s not RAW vote share though, that’s the PNE they use?
That’s the BBC PNS (Projected National Share). Interestingly, Sky has changes of +9 and -4, which (if that’s the NEV measure) would imply shares of 40 and 27, quite different. Sky also have the interesting snippet that Lab are doing better where there are fewer graduates, obviously a reversal of the recent trend.
Am I right to think the BBC are putting Labour 5% ahead at the moment in the projected national share?
Currently showing Lab +7 since 2019 (which would be 35 if it holds all through tomorrow) and Con -1 (to 27). So, 8 points currently.
That’s not RAW vote share though, that’s the PNE they use?
That’s the BBC PNS (Projected National Share). Interestingly, Sky has changes of +9 and -4, which (if that’s the NEV measure) would imply shares of 40 and 27, quite different. Sky also have the interesting snippet that Lab are doing better where there are fewer graduates, obviously a reversal of the recent trend.
This national vote share . Is this if for example the whole country had a local election today . How can this share compare to current opinion polls when the Greens and Lib Dems share would drop in normal GE polling .
Indeed. Typically Lab and Con will be a few points higher for a GE than a LE, and others lower. You can see this when those two types of elections are held on the same day. It’s instructive to look at the Lab/Con lead.
Am I right to think the BBC are putting Labour 5% ahead at the moment in the projected national share?
Currently showing Lab +7 since 2019 (which would be 35 if it holds all through tomorrow) and Con -1 (to 27). So, 8 points currently.
That’s not RAW vote share though, that’s the PNE they use?
That’s the BBC PNS (Projected National Share). Interestingly, Sky has changes of +9 and -4, which (if that’s the NEV measure) would imply shares of 40 and 27, quite different. Sky also have the interesting snippet that Lab are doing better where there are fewer graduates, obviously a reversal of the recent trend.
I read about the graduate thing too, however that must be on limited data at the moment.
One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.
Yes, the last NEV was 31 each, so plus 9 on that gives Labour 40%.
The PNE on the Wikipage a different calculation, by different proffesors to PNS?
This national vote share . Is this if for example the whole country had a local election today . How can this share compare to current opinion polls when the Greens and Lib Dems share would drop in normal GE polling .
“How can this share compare to current opinion polls when the Greens and Lib Dems share would drop in normal GE polling”
It’s a great question.
I asked it in my post at 2.36 and answered it in my post at 2.49.
In short I don’t think it’s an issue if Labour underperform opinion polls here for the reason you gave, LLG will have high Lib Dem (I think 17%) and green tonight, that’s behaves differently for sure in next years lab v con GE contests.
Am I right to think the BBC are putting Labour 5% ahead at the moment in the projected national share?
Currently showing Lab +7 since 2019 (which would be 35 if it holds all through tomorrow) and Con -1 (to 27). So, 8 points currently.
That’s not RAW vote share though, that’s the PNE they use?
That’s the BBC PNS (Projected National Share). Interestingly, Sky has changes of +9 and -4, which (if that’s the NEV measure) would imply shares of 40 and 27, quite different. Sky also have the interesting snippet that Lab are doing better where there are fewer graduates, obviously a reversal of the recent trend.
I read about the graduate thing too, however that must be on limited data at the moment.
One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.
Yes, the last NEV was 31 each, so plus 9 on that gives Labour 40%.
The PNE on the Wikipage a different calculation, by different proffesors to PNS?
“One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.”
Would we say it’s harder to pile on % improvement in defences, especially in heartlands. So if Labour 9 up on NEV and 40% already from night counts, I call that very good position to go on attack from tomorrow.
It doesn’t say NEV though, how do we know that’s not still RAW and barely 35%?
Are you sure? They got 38% then, which would put them on 32% now.
Chris Mason implied they were comparing the exact same wards, so maybe it’s the ones which are still comparable (i.e. without significant boundary changes)?
Am I right to think the BBC are putting Labour 5% ahead at the moment in the projected national share?
Currently showing Lab +7 since 2019 (which would be 35 if it holds all through tomorrow) and Con -1 (to 27). So, 8 points currently.
That’s not RAW vote share though, that’s the PNE they use?
That’s the BBC PNS (Projected National Share). Interestingly, Sky has changes of +9 and -4, which (if that’s the NEV measure) would imply shares of 40 and 27, quite different. Sky also have the interesting snippet that Lab are doing better where there are fewer graduates, obviously a reversal of the recent trend.
I read about the graduate thing too, however that must be on limited data at the moment.
One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.
Yes, the last NEV was 31 each, so plus 9 on that gives Labour 40%.
The PNE on the Wikipage a different calculation, by different proffesors to PNS?
“One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.”
Would we say it’s harder to pile on % improvement in defences, especially in heartlands. So if Labour 9 up on NEV and 40% already from night counts, I call that very good position to go on attack from tomorrow.
It doesn’t say NEV though, how do we know that’s not still RAW and barely 35%?
I’d like clarity from Sky on this as it looks a bit toppy for Lab on a NEV basis, out of line with BBC/PNS. However, the graphic says 197 wards which must be key wards, we’ve had well over 600 actual wards in.
Am I right to think the BBC are putting Labour 5% ahead at the moment in the projected national share?
Currently showing Lab +7 since 2019 (which would be 35 if it holds all through tomorrow) and Con -1 (to 27). So, 8 points currently.
That’s not RAW vote share though, that’s the PNE they use?
That’s the BBC PNS (Projected National Share). Interestingly, Sky has changes of +9 and -4, which (if that’s the NEV measure) would imply shares of 40 and 27, quite different. Sky also have the interesting snippet that Lab are doing better where there are fewer graduates, obviously a reversal of the recent trend.
I read about the graduate thing too, however that must be on limited data at the moment.
One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.
Yes, the last NEV was 31 each, so plus 9 on that gives Labour 40%.
The PNE on the Wikipage a different calculation, by different proffesors to PNS?
“One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.”
Would we say it’s harder to pile on % improvement in defences, especially in heartlands. So if Labour 9 up on NEV and 40% already from night counts, I call that very good position to go on attack from tomorrow.
It doesn’t say NEV though, how do we know that’s not still RAW and barely 35%?
I’d like clarity from Sky on this as it looks a bit toppy for Lab on a NEV basis, out of line with BBC/PNS. However, the graphic says 197 wards which must be key wards, we’ve had well over 600 actual wards in.
Yes. Is it still graph of RAW votes, where Labour got 26.6% last time, or their NEV calculation?
As you say, if NEV it’s way ahead of PNS at this stage where Labour is only getting 33%.
Am I right to think the BBC are putting Labour 5% ahead at the moment in the projected national share?
Currently showing Lab +7 since 2019 (which would be 35 if it holds all through tomorrow) and Con -1 (to 27). So, 8 points currently.
That’s not RAW vote share though, that’s the PNE they use?
That’s the BBC PNS (Projected National Share). Interestingly, Sky has changes of +9 and -4, which (if that’s the NEV measure) would imply shares of 40 and 27, quite different. Sky also have the interesting snippet that Lab are doing better where there are fewer graduates, obviously a reversal of the recent trend.
I read about the graduate thing too, however that must be on limited data at the moment.
One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.
Yes, the last NEV was 31 each, so plus 9 on that gives Labour 40%.
The PNE on the Wikipage a different calculation, by different proffesors to PNS?
“One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.”
Would we say it’s harder to pile on % improvement in defences, especially in heartlands. So if Labour 9 up on NEV and 40% already from night counts, I call that very good position to go on attack from tomorrow.
It doesn’t say NEV though, how do we know that’s not still RAW and barely 35%?
I’d like clarity from Sky on this as it looks a bit toppy for Lab on a NEV basis, out of line with BBC/PNS. However, the graphic says 197 wards which must be key wards, we’ve had well over 600 actual wards in.
Yes. Is it still graph of RAW votes, where Labour got 26.6% last time, or their NEV calculation?
As you say, if NEV it’s way ahead of PNS at this stage where Labour is only getting 33%.
I don’t think it can be raw because of the small number of wards it says are counted, I’m thinking they must be key wards.
35% is the Lab PNS figure currently, going by the BBC graphic. Up 7 points on 2019, flat on 2022.
"People have lost the work ethic ...... Rishi can't sort it all out singlehandedly ...... everyone in the country needs to get back to work to sort it out"
Am I right to think the BBC are putting Labour 5% ahead at the moment in the projected national share?
Currently showing Lab +7 since 2019 (which would be 35 if it holds all through tomorrow) and Con -1 (to 27). So, 8 points currently.
That’s not RAW vote share though, that’s the PNE they use?
That’s the BBC PNS (Projected National Share). Interestingly, Sky has changes of +9 and -4, which (if that’s the NEV measure) would imply shares of 40 and 27, quite different. Sky also have the interesting snippet that Lab are doing better where there are fewer graduates, obviously a reversal of the recent trend.
I read about the graduate thing too, however that must be on limited data at the moment.
One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.
Yes, the last NEV was 31 each, so plus 9 on that gives Labour 40%.
The PNE on the Wikipage a different calculation, by different proffesors to PNS?
“One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.”
Would we say it’s harder to pile on % improvement in defences, especially in heartlands. So if Labour 9 up on NEV and 40% already from night counts, I call that very good position to go on attack from tomorrow.
It doesn’t say NEV though, how do we know that’s not still RAW and barely 35%?
I’d like clarity from Sky on this as it looks a bit toppy for Lab on a NEV basis, out of line with BBC/PNS. However, the graphic says 197 wards which must be key wards, we’ve had well over 600 actual wards in.
Yes. Is it still graph of RAW votes, where Labour got 26.6% last time, or their NEV calculation?
As you say, if NEV it’s way ahead of PNS at this stage where Labour is only getting 33%.
I don’t think it can be raw because of the small number of wards it says are counted, I’m thinking they must be key wards.
35% is the Lab PNS figure currently, going by the BBC graphic. Up 7 points on 2019, flat on 2022.
Currently 35 plays 40 in the battle of the national equivalent methodologies. Who actually marks their homework 🤔
Sky is now showing Lab 11.5 points up on 2019, getting ever more out of line with BBC figure which currently shows +7 and has been stuck on that for a while.
328 wards included in the Sky figure, timed at 03:48.
Sky is now showing Lab 11.5 points up on 2019, getting ever more out of line with BBC figure which currently shows +7 and has been stuck in that for a while.
328 wards included in the Sky figure, timed at 03:48.
If they are still miles apart at the end they will just have to wrestle it out in a paddling pool filled with jelly pebbles and stale BBC sandwiches.
In the willow-meads of Tasarinan I walked in the Spring. Ah! the sight and the smell of the Spring in Nan- Tasarion! And I said that was good. I wandered in Summer in the elm-woods of Ossiriand. Ah! the light and the music in the Summer by the Seven Rivers of Ossir! And I thought that was best. To the beeches of Neldoreth I came in the Autumn. Ah! the gold and the red and the sighing of leaves in the Autumn in Taur-na-neldor! It was more than my desire. To the pine-trees upon the highland of Dorthonion I Climbed in the Winter. Ah! the wind and the whiteness and the black branches Of Winter upon Orod-na-Thön! My voice went up and sang in the sky.
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
There are independents winning tonight. Yes…
Meanwhile, absolutely awful result for Labour in Dudley.
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
There are independents winning tonight. Yes…
Meanwhile, absolutely awful result for Labour in Dudley.
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
…
Meanwhile, absolutely awful result for Labour in Dudley.
Yes, very little change there yet Stoke has fallen to the reds.
I am going to call it a night. More fun tomorrow no doubt. Good night all.
"People have lost the work ethic ...... Rishi can't sort it all out singlehandedly ...... everyone in the country needs to get back to work to sort it out"
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
There are independents winning tonight. Yes…
Meanwhile, absolutely awful result for Labour in Dudley.
It doesn't get much more Red Wall than Dudley.
That’s right. It does not bode well for Labours GE chances in this old solid heartland seat at all.
Labour need to come out and explain this one.
meanwhile down the road in Worcester, quite the opposite, greens pick up 4, libdems 2 and Labour just 1. However, what looks like a poor result for Labour actually means if the LLG vote gets organised in behind Labour in the GE the sitting Tory is a sitting duck. Based on tonight’s result I’m calling this one for the GE already, Labour gain.
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
…
Meanwhile, absolutely awful result for Labour in Dudley.
Yes, very little change there yet Stoke has fallen to the reds.
I am going to call it a night. More fun tomorrow no doubt. Good night all.
Someone had leaked us an email sent by the chair of Stockport’s Constituency Labour Party, in which he was rallying activists to go and campaign in Edgeley, where Labour faces a tough fight against a new independent party. “We are concerned at the strong showing of the Edgeley Community Association in the postal votes,” the email reads.
But hang on, how did he know about their strong showing? Or as Andy, one of our members, asked in the comments: “How do Stockport Labour know what’s in the postal votes in Edgeley? I didn’t think they were meant to be opened/counted until the count begins.”
Good question. We’ve been trying to work out what happened here, and it seems like the Labour official in Stockport may well have broken electoral law.
Stockport Labour are notoriously pissy and entitled. Areas like Edgeley and Reddish are deserting them with a combination of demographic change and general apathy around Lab as a local gov force.
Tbh though I would guess here this is probably a result of canvassing more than something more sinister - though I wouldn’t rule it out.
Just got in after one of the most dispiriting days sitting outside a polling station than I can ever remember. Maybe I am just getting old, but I wonder if perhaps our traditional way of running a polling day/get the vote out campaign is irretrievably broken?
1. Because of the need to bring ID, people are not bringing their polling cards with them, so asking for their polling card numbers is pointless - so it makes knocking up, and thus canvassing, more pointless than ever. (Incidentally, just two people turned away for not having the appropriate ID.)
2. The hostility towards the tellers was distinctly unusual, and somewhat unpleasant. There were three of us (Tory, Independent and Lib Dem) and the hostility didn't seem to be directed at any one of us - it was general, non-specific, and fierce. Even if they had numbers, they were not going to give them - and asking for their names and addresses (as optimistically suggested by our Committee Room) would have been heroically pointless, bordering on the suicidal.
3. Turnout very low, in a ward which has councillors from three different parties.
4. The opinions of some of my telling compadres were weird, bordering on the psychopathic. During the day I was told, variously, that too many people get their news from the BBC, that the best place to go for objective information on the economy is from John Redwood's website, the Skripal/Salisbury poisonings were masterminded by MI6 rather than the Russians, one third of all civil servants should be sacked on a randomly selected basis without delay, and the NHS should cease from doing most elective surgery.
I despair of the country I am living in, and I don't think I like many of the people living in it.
Yes thanks for adding another piece to the puzzle. The picture we are getting in is massive apathy in voting this election, not just some stay at home Tories, a plague on all your houses stay home from all voters.
The handful that came along to you don’t sound like Labour or Lib Dem or Green voters. I am wondering now if todays mass apathy will hurt Labour the most.
Could be a very strange result. Massive low turnout could hurt Labour considering the opinion polls show they have voters they may have failed to encourage out.
In theory, there could be differential apathy?
Folks that AC just described, certainly weren't apathetic. Instead, alienated.
And again, isn't the whole notion of asking people for personal info, just because you want it, rather outdated? In this age of identity theft and similar?
May have worked fine in past (in UK anyway) but now's the present.
Giving tellers a polling card number isn’t really telling them anything other than that you have voted. Which as you say is publicly available information in the US anyway.
It’s publicly available information here, too, although not many people know it.
Waking up to the news, Peston seems to be saying that the LDs are having a good night?
My take. Lib Dem’s and Greens have had a better than expected night in what has been a lot of Northern and red wall counts. What we have so far is just a first course, by no means the main, and not just Lib Dem’s and Greens but Labour too have built sold foundations in the night, to now go hunting the Tory defences to come.
Sky News: elderly woman in Stoke-on-Trent arrived at the polling station with some family photo albums to prove her identity. Wasn't successful (if I understood correctly).
I rather like that. Look, this is me on holiday in Blackpool in 2020. And there's my Aunt Nora. That's photo ID, isn't it?
”That’s me, there, in that photo. Obviously it’s me, you can see that it is. Now can I vote, please?”
Waking up to the news, Peston seems to be saying that the LDs are having a good night?
My take. Lib Dem’s and Greens have had a better than expected night in what has been a lot of Northern and red wall counts. What we have so far is just a first course, by no means the main, and not just Lib Dem’s and Greens but Labour too have built sold foundations in the night, to now go hunting the Tory defences to come.
There’s something to add - the battle between the National Equivalent methodologies. NEV on Sky, which starts from Tories and Labour 31% each, and PNS on aunty, which starts at 28% each. The point being you are more likely to get consensus between Neville and Carragher - the beebs PNS has Labour struggling on only 35%, the Skys NEV has Labour respectfully topping at over 40%.
Plenty for armchair psephologists to chew over already. I’m intrigued by the LDs keeping hold of Hull - that isn’t a great sign for Labour and how much they are creating positive motivation to vote for them.
The story seems more ‘get the Tories out’ across the nation.
Re. Dudley, another interesting one - I feel this illustrates yet another reason why the ‘red wall’ generalisation is silly and lazy. Dudley (like some other supposed ‘red wall’ seats like Bury) has long had a very healthy Tory vote - at GE and local. The Tories will be happy to hold on to it though.
Waking up to the news, Peston seems to be saying that the LDs are having a good night?
My take. Lib Dem’s and Greens have had a better than expected night in what has been a lot of Northern and red wall counts. What we have so far is just a first course, by no means the main, and not just Lib Dem’s and Greens but Labour too have built sold foundations in the night, to now go hunting the Tory defences to come.
There’s something to add - the battle between the National Equivalent methodologies. NEV on Sky, which starts from Tories and Labour 31% each, and PNS on aunty, which starts at 28% each. The point being you are more likely to get consensus between Neville and Carragher - the beebs PNS has Labour struggling on only 35%, the Skys NEV has Labour respectfully topping at over 40%.
And for those waking up, the third headline to take from the night. Though Labour will get a solid and satisfying outcome from this election, the results are not going to give Labour anything as fantastic as what the GE polling has been saying. But it doesn’t matter, because the green and Libdem totals are going to be so healthy too.
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
There are independents winning tonight. Yes…
Meanwhile, absolutely awful result for Labour in Dudley.
It doesn't get much more Red Wall than Dudley.
That’s right. It does not bode well for Labours GE chances in this old solid heartland seat at all.
Labour need to come out and explain this one.
meanwhile down the road in Worcester, quite the opposite, greens pick up 4, libdems 2 and Labour just 1. However, what looks like a poor result for Labour actually means if the LLG vote gets organised in behind Labour in the GE the sitting Tory is a sitting duck. Based on tonight’s result I’m calling this one for the GE already, Labour gain.
There are a million and one numbers around tonight. But sentiment, feeling, facial expressions matter too.
And there is little doubt who is in possession of the widest nocturnal smiles: the Liberal Democrats. “We will exceed the expectations of all the pollsters, this is a great night for us,” a senior source told me.
The Conservatives are having a miserable night, without question.
Labour are making steps forward, but not colossal leaps.
Their party’s senior figures are instead pointing to geography, particular places where they claim they have done well enough to have won the parliamentary seats. They reckon on the basis of tonight’s results they would have won the constituencies of Hartlepool, Stevenage, Dudley South, Ipswich, West Bromwich East, Great Grimsby, Aldershot. The latter has been Conservative for yonks and yonks.
But remember, for Labour to win a general election, they have to do astonishingly well in terms of gains, by any modern comparison, at the next general election.
Plenty for armchair psephologists to chew over already. I’m intrigued by the LDs keeping hold of Hull - that isn’t a great sign for Labour and how much they are creating positive motivation to vote for them.
The story seems more ‘get the Tories out’ across the nation.
Re. Dudley, another interesting one - I feel this illustrates yet another reason why the ‘red wall’ generalisation is silly and lazy. Dudley (like some other supposed ‘red wall’ seats like Bury) has long had a very healthy Tory vote - at GE and local. The Tories will be happy to hold on to it though.
Disagree with you. The GE is a different Kettle of fish, and Labours 3 Hull MP incumbents are not greatly threatened. Ditto and in reverse, take a look at Worcester, labour just 1 gain, but the Conservative position so hollowed out now I have already called Worcester a general election gain for Labour, with LLG behind the Labour challenger. You can point to Dudley if you want, but Labours success in Stoke trumps it.
Plenty for armchair psephologists to chew over already. I’m intrigued by the LDs keeping hold of Hull - that isn’t a great sign for Labour and how much they are creating positive motivation to vote for them.
The story seems more ‘get the Tories out’ across the nation.
Re. Dudley, another interesting one - I feel this illustrates yet another reason why the ‘red wall’ generalisation is silly and lazy. Dudley (like some other supposed ‘red wall’ seats like Bury) has long had a very healthy Tory vote - at GE and local. The Tories will be happy to hold on to it though.
The LibDems in Hull are a relatively young and dynamic bunch; the old Labour council there was widely seen as one of its remaining dinosaurs, before they got thrown out.
Comments
Not sure the results so far are good enough for LAB but very early days
Off to bed now GN all
Changes since 2019 locals
Lab +7%
Con -0.2%
LD +2%
Green -0.1%
Ind -10%
189 / 792 key wards declared
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
Changes in councillors
Lab +29
LD +14
Green +4
Residents +1
Ind ---
Con -44
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results
Who else do we know on PB who can lose their whole shit in an instant like that, when losing an argument or it’s not going their/labours way like tonight?
Anyway, the sky write up from Harlow.
Conservatives hold Harlow
This council was one that had the potential to fall to Labour - with a loss of four seats enough to take the council away from the Conservatives.
But it was a slightly tall order, as only four Conservative-held council seats were up for grabs in Harlow, and they would have had to lose all of them in order to lose the council.
In actuality, Labour lost one seat and the Conservatives gained one.
For context, the Tories only took control in 2021, and it had been Labour for the previous decade.
31/31 as per NEV from Rallings and Thrasher, used by Sky. See page 19 of https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8566/CBP-8566.pdf
28/28 as per PNS from Curtice and BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48091592?app=news.politics.story.48091592.page
What helped to create the blue mirage last year was many of the Friday counts were full not partial councils, the Tory losses climbed quicker in the afternoon from what didn’t seem such a bad result at breakfast.
"Stats for Lefties 🏳️⚧️
@LeftieStats
🚨 Conservatives LOSE Tamworth to NOC
🔵 CON 14 (-6)
🔴 LAB 10 (+7)
⚪️ IND 6 (-)
🟣 UKIP 0 (-1)
Labour won 8 of 10 seats up for election."
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1654289388875010048
[brief pause]
Crikey, it's Serbian. Yes, really: "Oj Alija aljo" by "Koridor" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFDpo62eqwU
An old but useful comparison of the two measures here: https://electionsetc.com/2013/05/01/local-elections-vote-shares-the-bbc-pns-and-rallings-thrasher-nev-compared/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIg
It could be my mistake here, I presumed NEV was RAW votes and PNE adjusted figure. NEV might be a rival PNE calculation trying to achieve same thing, not the RAW vote measure?
I do agree that the results could be a lot worse by this afternoon for Con. Lab are only up 0.2% on 2022 at the moment (PNS) which they will hope to improve upon later on Friday. They are around the 35% mark.
And the only one we know is totally accurate is RAW, the others vary due to methodology, but from your article pretty much mirror each other to say the same thing.
What makes me think it’s R&T versus Prof C in a “mine can do it better than yours”psephological buff off?
2019: Lab 28, Con 28
Change Lab +7, Con -2
Implies 2023: Lab 35, Con 26
The final seat loss for Tories looks on course for 800+ we can agree? Their PNE looks like it will be lower than 28%, but how much lower, 2 or more?
At this stage it doesn’t look like Labour can get either NEV or PNE anywhere near 40%, but could still sneak something like a 36-26 over the Tories? Lib Dem’s ordering more blue shoe boxes overnight to suppress the Tory RAW helps Labour out in getting the 10% win?
Apart from that I totally agree with you as just posted the same myself - Labour ate getting neither NEV or PNE anywhere near 40% or what they have been getting in opinion polls.
That throws up two psephological questions. Why? And does it really matter?
Then at top of hour . . . "Hawaii Eye"!
Hull for example, more Lib Dem councillors than Labour, but 3 Labour MPs.
Bristols another, lots of green councillors and green voters, 4 Labour MPs.
Labour falling way short in this election from the national GE poll’s, probably doesn’t read across into next years GE if we see 17% Lib Dem down 2% and and greens around 7.5% in this election, as that’s where the Labour vote has clearly gone, but we wouldn’t for a moment expect all those voters to behave same way in a GE, especially in lab v Con tussles.
Surely they are measuring the same thing?
https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-live-polls-close-across-england-and-counting-of-votes-begins-in-big-test-for-sunak-and-starmer-12593360
One thing that leaps out, and surely helps the blue mirage where things may not look bad for Tories at breakfast, but horrible by tiffin, is most seats declared so far are labour defences. There’s thousands of Tory defences to declare.
Yes, the last NEV was 31 each, so plus 9 on that gives Labour 40%.
The PNE on the Wikipage a different calculation, by different proffesors to PNS?
It’s a great question.
I asked it in my post at 2.36 and answered it in my post at 2.49.
In short I don’t think it’s an issue if Labour underperform opinion polls here for the reason you gave, LLG will have high Lib Dem (I think 17%) and green tonight, that’s behaves differently for sure in next years lab v con GE contests.
Lab DOWN 6% vs 2012 Locals (!)
Also the learned discussion of numbers, which is - at this hour anyway - interesting, informative, impressive.
Would we say it’s harder to pile on % improvement in defences, especially in heartlands. So if Labour 9 up on NEV and 40% already from night counts, I call that very good position to go on attack from tomorrow.
It doesn’t say NEV though, how do we know that’s not still RAW and barely 35%?
Lab +1
NOC +1
Con -2
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
Right now BV is showing map of Northeast Lincolnshire - PB gold!
Sorry, BE - Britain Elects.
Don’t be rude, with your West Coast hillbilly sense of humour, this is a serious business this election.
. . .
To the first headline, can we spin it these elections still give Sunak a chance of winning the next election?
To the second headline, simply follow MoonRabbit’s coverage on PB.com.
To the third, countless means too many to count? Can’t be asked to find out? Or using a word that sounds like a lot without saying anything at all”
As you say, if NEV it’s way ahead of PNS at this stage where Labour is only getting 33%.
35% is the Lab PNS figure currently, going by the BBC graphic. Up 7 points on 2019, flat on 2022.
"People have lost the work ethic ...... Rishi can't sort it all out singlehandedly ...... everyone in the country needs to get back to work to sort it out"
LOL
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/plymouth-local-election-live-updates-8406984
Can’t bring back the trees though.
328 wards included in the Sky figure, timed at 03:48.
Lab +397
Con -1,144
LD +261
Nah. Send Curtice back behind his screen and tell him to try again. That attempts rubbish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyk3AEXvmLg
Spring.
Ah! the sight and the smell of the Spring in Nan-
Tasarion!
And I said that was good.
I wandered in Summer in the elm-woods of Ossiriand.
Ah! the light and the music in the Summer by the
Seven Rivers of Ossir!
And I thought that was best.
To the beeches of Neldoreth I came in the Autumn.
Ah! the gold and the red and the sighing of leaves in the
Autumn in Taur-na-neldor!
It was more than my desire.
To the pine-trees upon the highland of Dorthonion I
Climbed in the Winter.
Ah! the wind and the whiteness and the black branches
Of Winter upon Orod-na-Thön!
My voice went up and sang in the sky.
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
Meanwhile, absolutely awful result for Labour in Dudley.
I am going to call it a night. More fun tomorrow no doubt. Good night all.
Labour need to come out and explain this one.
meanwhile down the road in Worcester, quite the opposite, greens pick up 4, libdems 2 and Labour just 1. However, what looks like a poor result for Labour actually means if the LLG vote gets organised in behind Labour in the GE the sitting Tory is a sitting duck. Based on tonight’s result I’m calling this one for the GE already, Labour gain.
Tbh though I would guess here this is probably a result of canvassing more than something more sinister - though I wouldn’t rule it out.
The story seems more ‘get the Tories out’ across the nation.
Re. Dudley, another interesting one - I feel this illustrates yet another reason why the ‘red wall’ generalisation is silly and lazy. Dudley (like some other supposed ‘red wall’ seats like Bury) has long had a very healthy Tory vote - at GE and local. The Tories will be happy to hold on to it though.
There are a million and one numbers around tonight. But sentiment, feeling, facial expressions matter too.
And there is little doubt who is in possession of the widest nocturnal smiles: the Liberal Democrats. “We will exceed the expectations of all the pollsters, this is a great night for us,” a senior source told me.
The Conservatives are having a miserable night, without question.
Labour are making steps forward, but not colossal leaps.
Their party’s senior figures are instead pointing to geography, particular places where they claim they have done well enough to have won the parliamentary seats. They reckon on the basis of tonight’s results they would have won the constituencies of Hartlepool, Stevenage, Dudley South, Ipswich, West Bromwich East, Great Grimsby, Aldershot. The latter has been Conservative for yonks and yonks.
But remember, for Labour to win a general election, they have to do astonishingly well in terms of gains, by any modern comparison, at the next general election.
Ditto and in reverse, take a look at Worcester, labour just 1 gain, but the Conservative position so hollowed out now I have already called Worcester a general election gain for Labour, with LLG behind the Labour challenger.
You can point to Dudley if you want, but Labours success in Stoke trumps it.