Looking like a good night for tactical (anti-Conservative) voting. Which augurs well for the LibDem targets in the Blue Wall with daytime counts. I wonder if we’re going to see more Oxfordshire-style rainbow coalitions - Cherwell is looking vulnerable on these numbers.
Could be that the paper is comparing with the point immediately before the election, and the BBC with 2019, so defections etc might affect the figures.
There are independents winning tonight. Yes…
Meanwhile, absolutely awful result for Labour in Dudley.
It doesn't get much more Red Wall than Dudley.
That’s right. It does not bode well for Labours GE chances in this old solid heartland seat at all.
Labour need to come out and explain this one.
meanwhile down the road in Worcester, quite the opposite, greens pick up 4, libdems 2 and Labour just 1. However, what looks like a poor result for Labour actually means if the LLG vote gets organised in behind Labour in the GE the sitting Tory is a sitting duck. Based on tonight’s result I’m calling this one for the GE already, Labour gain.
Worcester Woman is back!
TBH I’m more interested in the next county elections than the parliamentary there. Worcestershire County Council (Con) are beyond useless and deserve to be out on their sore arse asap.
There are a million and one numbers around tonight. But sentiment, feeling, facial expressions matter too.
And there is little doubt who is in possession of the widest nocturnal smiles: the Liberal Democrats. “We will exceed the expectations of all the pollsters, this is a great night for us,” a senior source told me.
The Conservatives are having a miserable night, without question.
Labour are making steps forward, but not colossal leaps.
Their party’s senior figures are instead pointing to geography, particular places where they claim they have done well enough to have won the parliamentary seats. They reckon on the basis of tonight’s results they would have won the constituencies of Hartlepool, Stevenage, Dudley South, Ipswich, West Bromwich East, Great Grimsby, Aldershot. The latter has been Conservative for yonks and yonks.
But remember, for Labour to win a general election, they have to do astonishingly well in terms of gains, by any modern comparison, at the next general election.
“Labour are making steps forward, but not colossal leaps.” The nights been full of lots of Labour defences. How long through today will you keep pushing that line Chris, considering to failed to reel off Plymouth, Stoke, gillingham already. .
He will start to sound daft pushing that line, before reeling off 5 minutes of Labour gains suggesting they gain the Westminster seats next year.
LibDems keeping control of Cotswold is perhaps the best clue so far for the affluent parts of the Blue Wall. It suggests they’ll defend the three Oxfordshire districts where they’re in power and may have a fighting chance at Cherwell.
Interesting point made on Twitter that Labour are recovering in Leave areas but the Conservatives are still performing badly in Remain areas.
I remember when there was a lot of gentle sniggering (politely, in a mustn’t-speak-ill-of-the-dead way) about the ‘Lib Dem Fightback’ post-2015.
But here we are - a great LE for them, it looks like so far. To paraphrase Bob Monkhouse, we aren’t laughing now.
Can you explain the Bob Monkhouse reference? I'm a hardline rejoiner but I always thought Nigel Farage's post-referendum speech at the European Parliament in which he said "you all laughed at me ... you aren't laughing now" was superb. Did he take the idea from Bob?
I remember when there was a lot of gentle sniggering (politely, in a mustn’t-speak-ill-of-the-dead way) about the ‘Lib Dem Fightback’ post-2015.
But here we are - a great LE for them, it looks like so far. To paraphrase Bob Monkhouse, we aren’t laughing now.
For Lib Dem’s, Brexits the gift which keeps on giving. For many lifelong Tories they were 100% convinced by remain, and thought the country had gone mad when the brexit votes came in from Dudley, Stoke, Sunderland etc.
when will the fire burning inside that large subset of voters actually go out? Having Boris, Gove, Mogg so prominent in government possibly chucked fuel on the flames. Maybe just any Tory in government, any Tory government or council candidate fuels the flames.
Conservative MPs in both the north and south of England "will be worrying" about the strength of the results for Labour and the Liberal Democrats so far, said deputy political editor Sam Coates.
There has been a "solid result" for the Labour Party with some "high profile wins" and a "decent number" of net seats so far, he said.
For the Conservatives "the next three hours will be critical", with the party losing approximately one in three seats at present.
"If that trend continues we could be heading towards the 1,000 seats which the Tories were warning might be lost net - but that is at the very bad end of expectations," said Coates.
Labour are up 8.4% in the south, 8% in the North, and 5.6% in the Midlands.
I get it that you are a rabid tory but take off your blinkers and go and read the analysis on Sky News and BBC.
Ouch. 🤭
Actually, that’s the only truly disappointing Labour result off the top of my head I can cheekily ask you to explain. It’s been a very solid night for Labour. They have already done well in places where there are Tory MPs, Plymouth, Stoke, Gillingham etc - where they need it, not just the fools gold of racking it up where they don’t need it.
From the media reporting it this morning there is again a bit of the blue mirage at breakfast mistake they all made last year - for Labour and the Lib Dem’s, the day will just get better and better in my opinion.
I remember when there was a lot of gentle sniggering (politely, in a mustn’t-speak-ill-of-the-dead way) about the ‘Lib Dem Fightback’ post-2015.
But here we are - a great LE for them, it looks like so far. To paraphrase Bob Monkhouse, we aren’t laughing now.
Can you explain the Bob Monkhouse reference? I'm a hardline rejoiner but I always thought Nigel Farage's post-referendum speech at the European Parliament in which he said "you all laughed at me ... you aren't laughing now" was superb. Did he take the idea from Bob?
I'm even more confident now in my forecast of a Labour landslide at the next GE. I've argued that the GE will see them with a much bigger swing than the local elections. Starmer is not particularly amazing but Sunak is worse and the tory brand nationally is trashed.
There is a pincer movement going on with the LibDems and Labour making huge gains and the tories losing 1 in 3 councillors.
Many people are also voting tactically in these locals. I am an example. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Con-Lib marginal at local level. But it's a Con-Lab marginal at constituency level.
So there is still a chance then. Flipping eck. You going with there is still a chance, it’s not all over?
I'm no psephologist but no LE results whatsoever at a time that could be a whole year or more away from a GE could possibly justify the statement that there's almost no chance of a Tory-led government post-GE. Someone should remind Sam Coates that stuff can happen. Where has he been since the start of 2020? I'll happily offer him a price of 1.1 if he wants to bet on the post-GE PM not being a Tory.
Labour are up 8.4% in the south, 8% in the North, and 5.6% in the Midlands.
I get it that you are a rabid tory but take off your blinkers and go and read the analysis on Sky News and BBC.
But. The Sky NEV is being so much kinder to Labour than aunty’s PNS.
If you don’t know the difference between the two, the battle between the National Equivalent methodologies, you might be interested, because the psephologists behind them are pointing to two different takes at the moment, and different broadcasters reporting to that.
NEV on Sky, which starts from Tories and Labour 31% each, and PNS on aunty, which starts at 28% each. The point being you are more likely to get consensus between Neville and Carragher - the beebs PNS has Labour struggling on only 35%, the Skys NEV has Labour respectfully topping at over 40%.
Apparently Windsor is enjoying a little local kerfuffle - not it would seem of the blue blood variety in coronation week but more of spilt blue councillors falling on their swords of (what a) state all over the Royal Borough.
Translation : "All my gawd, the peasants have shoved the orb and sceptre right up the electoral Conservative robes"
I'm even more confident now in my forecast of a Labour landslide at the next GE. I've argued that the GE will see them with a much bigger swing than the local elections. Starmer is not particularly amazing but Sunak is worse and the tory brand nationally is trashed.
There is a pincer movement going on with the LibDems and Labour making huge gains and the tories losing 1 in 3 councillors.
Many people are also voting tactically in these locals. I am an example. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Con-Lib marginal at local level. But it's a Con-Lab marginal at constituency level.
“I'm even more confident now in my forecast of a Labour landslide at the next GE”
Though Labour will get a solid and satisfying outcome from this election, the results are not going to give Labour anything as fantastic as what the GE polling has been saying,
But it doesn’t matter, because the green and Libdem totals are going to be so healthy too. It’s not a GE type election. The important take out is that the LLG is huge, it’s everywhere it needs to be, it hates Tories and happy to lend votes. To me, this is a more important take out than Labour jumping through hoops Rawlings, Thrasher and Professor C have been setting them.
Apparently Windsor is enjoying a little local kerfuffle - not it would seem of the blue blood variety in coronation week but more of spilt blue councillors falling on their swords of (what a) state all over the Royal Borough.
Translation : "All my gawd, the peasants have shoved the orb and sceptre right up the electoral Conservative robes"
Great to see you back!
NW Leics Council, which matches Bridgen's seat, now NoC with Lab up 7, LD up 1, Con down 8.
The electorate are clearly unhappy with the Tories, but I don’t think Labour have sealed the deal. I note that, by the BBC calculations, Labour did better under Ed Miliband, though, of course, the Lib Dems are doing better now, so there is that.
The electorate are clearly unhappy with the Tories, but I don’t think Labour have sealed the deal. I note that, by the BBC calculations, Labour did better under Ed Miliband, though, of course, the Lib Dems are doing better now, so there is that.
As far as a general theme can be drawn from the results so far, that’s about right.
‘Get the Tories out’ seems to be where much of the electorate is at.
Quite right too. Although many Tories on PB now hate Boris and Truss and hail Sunak and Hunt for stability, the programme for now to the election is not about rolling sleeves up and tackling the country’s problems,Tory MPs already complained this week it’s a government that is the NIMBYS friend. From `Sunak and Hunt so far is like watching your football team go down without putting up a fight.
Plenty for armchair psephologists to chew over already. I’m intrigued by the LDs keeping hold of Hull - that isn’t a great sign for Labour and how much they are creating positive motivation to vote for them.
The story seems more ‘get the Tories out’ across the nation.
Re. Dudley, another interesting one - I feel this illustrates yet another reason why the ‘red wall’ generalisation is silly and lazy. Dudley (like some other supposed ‘red wall’ seats like Bury) has long had a very healthy Tory vote - at GE and local. The Tories will be happy to hold on to it though.
The LibDems in Hull are a relatively young and dynamic bunch; the old Labour council there was widely seen as one of its remaining dinosaurs, before they got thrown out.
So often the LD’s secret weapon in locals especially is… doing the job they were elected to do (which is mostly being blamed for everything from potholes to Putin on local Facebook pages).
I tend to the view, as I expressed yesterday, that at local level tories will tend to fare better than national and I think that will be even more evident at the next GE, where Sunak will be found even more wanting than Starmer - which is saying something. And where the full fury of anti-tory sentiment will come to the fore.
Exclusive: Conservative judicial activist Leonard Leo arranged for the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to be paid tens of thousands of dollars for consulting work nearly a decade ago, specifying that her name be left off billing paperwork. https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1654265190052159489
"People have lost the work ethic ...... Rishi can't sort it all out singlehandedly ...... everyone in the country needs to get back to work to sort it out"
Lib Dems now the biggest party on West Lindsey council (an area I know a bit cos my mum used to live outside Gainsborough). Lincolnshire Tory country mostly.
Only 25% of the results are in so far. And probably not much news now until lunchtime, when progress has been made in the morning counts.
By that time I should be back driving on the left.
Radio 5 Live on AM stretches well into northern France, so perhaps there will be some election coverage to listen to in English this morning? The days when you could listen to the world service when driving abroad are long gone, sadly, although I was surprised to discover on last year’s US trip that some NPR stations give over the occasional hour to news feed from the BBCWS.
Lib Dems now the biggest party on West Lindsey council (an area I know a bit cos my mum used to live outside Gainsborough). Lincolnshire Tory country mostly.
Lib Dems now the biggest party on West Lindsey council (an area I know a bit cos my mum used to live outside Gainsborough). Lincolnshire Tory country mostly.
At Harborough verification last night very difficult to be sure what has happened though possibly Green and Labour vote higher than expected -Green didn't campaign just put up paper candidates.. Misterton (Icarus's ward) probably depending on postal votes we which didn't see being opened and might not be helpful. Not rushing to the bookies!
Comments
Very good night for the Greens in Worcester.
Looking like a triumph for Keir Starmer.
Labour gaining - and Conservatives losing - in the South
It looks like the may be a scouring of the shires for the Conservatives - with the party of government's vote swing down 4.2% in the region.
Labour change in vote share, meanwhile, is up 8.4% in the South.
It was thought that the Liberal Democrats would be a big threat here - but at this stage they are down 1.6%.
Labour is also coming out on top in the North and the Midlands, with the Tories down in both as well.
The Lib Dems are up slightly in the North.
This may change as we get more results coming in later today.
He will start to sound daft pushing that line, before reeling off 5 minutes of Labour gains suggesting they gain the Westminster seats next year.
Please Explain the Dudley result to us.
Interesting point made on Twitter that Labour are recovering in Leave areas but the Conservatives are still performing badly in Remain areas.
But here we are - a great LE for them, it looks like so far. To paraphrase Bob Monkhouse, we aren’t laughing now.
Con 43%, Lab 34%, LD 22%, 16, 14, 9, in terms of seats. The Lib Dems polled very strongly in Bushey, for the first time in many years.
Overall, it looks like a very poor night for the Tories, but not on a par with 1993-97 (when they were reduced to 13 councils, nationwide).
Almost no chance' of Rishi Sunak remaining in Number 10 after the next election based on tonight's results so far
Based on tonight's results so far, there is "almost no chance" of a Conservative-led government after the next general election.
That's the assessment of deputy political editor Sam Coates, who has been going through the results as they come in.
Watch him explain why in this clip below:
https://news.sky.com/story/local-elections-live-polls-close-across-england-and-counting-of-votes-begins-in-big-test-for-sunak-and-starmer-12593360
when will the fire burning inside that large subset of voters actually go out? Having Boris, Gove, Mogg so prominent in government possibly chucked fuel on the flames. Maybe just any Tory in government, any Tory government or council candidate fuels the flames.
I get it that you are a rabid tory but take off your blinkers and go and read the analysis on Sky News and BBC.
That's a real turn up and suggests that the old Brexit Labour voters may be returning to the fold.
There has been a "solid result" for the Labour Party with some "high profile wins" and a "decent number" of net seats so far, he said.
For the Conservatives "the next three hours will be critical", with the party losing approximately one in three seats at present.
"If that trend continues we could be heading towards the 1,000 seats which the Tories were warning might be lost net - but that is at the very bad end of expectations," said Coates.
Sam Coates Sky
Actually, that’s the only truly disappointing Labour result off the top of my head I can cheekily ask you to explain. It’s been a very solid night for Labour. They have already done well in places where there are Tory MPs, Plymouth, Stoke, Gillingham etc - where they need it, not just the fools gold of racking it up where they don’t need it.
From the media reporting it this morning there is again a bit of the blue mirage at breakfast mistake they all made last year - for Labour and the Lib Dem’s, the day will just get better and better in my opinion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oiIjtQqGKU
Lab take Stoke-on-Trent Council it seems. Classic "Red Wall"
There is a pincer movement going on with the LibDems and Labour making huge gains and the tories losing 1 in 3 councillors.
Many people are also voting tactically in these locals. I am an example. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Con-Lib marginal at local level. But it's a Con-Lab marginal at constituency level.
https://twitter.com/drpaul_stanley/status/1654093281247088642
If you don’t know the difference between the two, the battle between the National Equivalent methodologies, you might be interested, because the psephologists behind them are pointing to two different takes at the moment, and different broadcasters reporting to that.
NEV on Sky, which starts from Tories and Labour 31% each, and PNS on aunty, which starts at 28% each. The point being you are more likely to get consensus between Neville and Carragher - the beebs PNS has Labour struggling on only 35%, the Skys NEV has Labour respectfully topping at over 40%.
Translation : "All my gawd, the peasants have shoved the orb and sceptre right up the electoral Conservative robes"
Though Labour will get a solid and satisfying outcome from this election, the results are not going to give Labour anything as fantastic as what the GE polling has been saying,
But it doesn’t matter, because the green and Libdem totals are going to be so healthy too. It’s not a GE type election. The important take out is that the LLG is huge, it’s everywhere it needs to be, it hates Tories and happy to lend votes. To me, this is a more important take out than Labour jumping through hoops Rawlings, Thrasher and Professor C have been setting them.
NW Leics Council, which matches Bridgen's seat, now NoC with Lab up 7, LD up 1, Con down 8.
from that well known left wing newspaper the Daily Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/05/local-election-results-2023-live-updates-uk-councils-latest/
"Local elections 2023: Tory right plotting to take back control after drubbing"
from The Times £££
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/local-elections-2023-tory-right-plotting-to-take-back-control-after-drubbing-7jkrxkgjp
Looks like Starmer is finally cracking the Red Wall, and a lot of Tory Westminster seats very much in play, as the national poll leads suggested
regardless of swings needed versus national average polls showing, many localised swings could well be way ahead of national average in the coming GE.
‘Get the Tories out’ seems to be where much of the electorate is at.
It takes a special kind of self-awareness to think “you know, what would really fix our electoral woes right now is bringing Liz Truss back”.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/local-election-results-wont-next-general-election-keir-starmer-rishi-sunak-2317693
I tend to the view, as I expressed yesterday, that at local level tories will tend to fare better than national and I think that will be even more evident at the next GE, where Sunak will be found even more wanting than Starmer - which is saying something. And where the full fury of anti-tory sentiment will come to the fore.
Whatever, it’s another gift to Labour.
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1654265190052159489
Been spending some time in North Norfolk recently and can tell you that proposals for hefty council tax rises have been playing big there.
I assume that the Con Gains are concentrated in the 'Chelsea-by-the-Sea' stretch around Wells, Blakeney and Stiffkey?
By that time I should be back driving on the left.
Radio 5 Live on AM stretches well into northern France, so perhaps there will be some election coverage to listen to in English this morning? The days when you could listen to the world service when driving abroad are long gone, sadly, although I was surprised to discover on last year’s US trip that some NPR stations give over the occasional hour to news feed from the BBCWS.