Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control. Mary Shelley was right.
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.
Very good point. “Here is some data - objectively summarise it in English”.
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 158
Not much Con to Lab swing there either, in the red wall this time. 🤔
But when there’s nearly 30% of UKIP votes up for grabs it’s pretty hard to interpret any Con-Lab swing. You’d expect most kippers to go Tory but it’s impossible to say.
Sky News: elderly woman in Stoke-on-Trent arrived at the polling station with some family photo albums to prove her identity. Wasn't successful (if I understood correctly).
I yield to no one in my disgust about this policy, but the idea of that amuses me. How did she think the photo album would help?
Maybe that was all she had. Photo ID isn't a thing for a lot of older, poorer people.
I'm not criticising the poor woman, but the way the headline is phrased it could be taken of a criticism that the album was not counted as acceptable ID, rather than that the need to bring ID was the problem - after all, the government could respond by saying more forms of ID, or an album, would now count, but that wouldn't address the main problem.
Sky News: elderly woman in Stoke-on-Trent arrived at the polling station with some family photo albums to prove her identity. Wasn't successful (if I understood correctly).
I yield to no one in my disgust about this policy, but the idea of that amuses me. How did she think the photo album would help?
Maybe that was all she had. Photo ID isn't a thing for a lot of older, poorer people.
Perhaps a good idea if the Electoral Commission asks each Voting Authority of how many Voting Authority Certicates they issued - I know two people who obtained one - did the people turned away not know of the requirement?
Do you still announce the results with those little ceremonies? An election officer comes out on a little stage, the candidates line up with their identifying rosettes, as if they were school students wondering who will get the reward, the results are read, and the winner congratulated.
I loved those ceremonies because of the cool confidence in your institutions they show -- so I hope you are still doing them. (Coaches in the US sometimes tell their players that they should not make a big fuss after they score, saying something like this: "Act like you've done it before, and expect to do it again.")
(These days I just have broadcast TV, and none of the local sub-channels include such things.)
Hell yes we do. Like AndyJS I am surprised to find out that is not the way it is typically done.
On of the things that make Great British Byelections great.
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 158
Not much Con to Lab swing there either, in the red wall this time. 🤔
But when there’s nearly 30% of UKIP votes up for grabs it’s pretty hard to interpret any Con-Lab swing. You’d expect most kippers to go Tory but it’s impossible to say.
Yes maybe I’m wrong. But 700 votes for Tories shows Brexit and Tory love maybe not fading away in Red Wall as quickly as psephologists and pollsters had been predicting for us tonight.
I despair of the country I am living in, and I don't think I like many of the people living in it.
I know, and believe me I sympathise, but it's the only one we got. Unlike SOME PEOPLE who swan about the world farting in bars, we aren't going anywhere so it's us who have to fix it. Shit doesn't clean itself up.
So. Have a sit down, remind yourself you're a decent person who did good today, and relax for a bit. Cake is nice I find.
Who would you go to a bar and fart, when you could have a nice strawberry citrus mojito? Or a turmeric-flavoured Old Fashioned?
These Sunderland results aren't very helpful because UKIP has disappeared and their large vote from previously is going where you'd expect it to, to all the other parties.
I despair of the country I am living in, and I don't think I like many of the people living in it.
I know, and believe me I sympathise, but it's the only one we got. Unlike SOME PEOPLE who swan about the world farting in bars, we aren't going anywhere so it's us who have to fix it. Shit doesn't clean itself up.
So. Have a sit down, remind yourself you're a decent person who did good today, and relax for a bit. Cake is nice I find.
Who would you go to a bar and fart, when you could have a nice strawberry citrus mojito? Or a turmeric-flavoured Old Fashioned?
What idiot would mess with an Old Fashioned or a Mojito? Name and shame them.
“The 14th best bar in the world”, if we are to trust this dubious article
I despair of the country I am living in, and I don't think I like many of the people living in it.
I know, and believe me I sympathise, but it's the only one we got. Unlike SOME PEOPLE who swan about the world farting in bars, we aren't going anywhere so it's us who have to fix it. Shit doesn't clean itself up.
So. Have a sit down, remind yourself you're a decent person who did good today, and relax for a bit. Cake is nice I find.
Who would you go to a bar and fart, when you could have a nice strawberry citrus mojito? Or a turmeric-flavoured Old Fashioned?
What idiot would mess with an Old Fashioned or a Mojito? Name and shame them.
“The 14th best bar in the world”, if we are to trust this dubious article
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control. Mary Shelley was right.
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.
Very good point. “Here is some data - objectively summarise it in English”.
I wouldn't trust AI with anything that requires factual accuracy.
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.
Sunderland -Doxford Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788 Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719 Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301 Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146 Green - Auburn Langley 67
Sunderland -Doxford Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788 Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719 Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301 Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146 Green - Auburn Langley 67
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control. Mary Shelley was right.
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.
Very good point. “Here is some data - objectively summarise it in English”.
I wouldn't trust AI with anything that requires factual accuracy.
I understand you can do a lot better than ChatGPT by connecting one of these large language models (LLMs) to a specific knowledge base.
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.
Am I weird?
You should watch 'Until The End of the World'. Quite remarkable how it's playing out.
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.
Am I weird?
There’s science on this. I am the opposite to you but neither of us is unusual. However it means we struggle to understand how each other “picture” anything.
Sunderland -Doxford Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788 Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719 Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301 Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146 Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
First SKS please explain!!
Don't worry I am off to bed now so no more tonight.
FWIW I think Tories will be 8 to 9 points behind on projected national share
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.
Sunderland -Doxford Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788 Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719 Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301 Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146 Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Labour vote down.
Surprised an LD like you isn't cheered that the LD majority is now bigger than the number of votes for the nearest rival.
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control. Mary Shelley was right.
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.
Very good point. “Here is some data - objectively summarise it in English”.
I wouldn't trust AI with anything that requires factual accuracy.
I am moving to the position where I would. Just not crap GPT. If anything I’m happier for it to stay in lane and summarise a given set of data rather than pretend to use glorified auto-correct to do more, as with Crap GPT.
No sign of conservative collapse in the Sunderland seats. But perhaps Sunderland Tories are a hardy bunch.
In recent years my vague recollection is the swift declaring northern seats have been better than expected for the Tories (if still not good), but when the sleepy shires start declaring in the morning it all goes to hell.
No sign of conservative collapse in the Sunderland seats. But perhaps Sunderland Tories are a hardy bunch.
The psephologists and MRP said Labour would have a great night in Red Wall this time, with mixed results when the South came in. Tory vote in red wall already defying polling and forecasts it seems.
Click on the ward and you get the breakdown/change
Very nice. The New Statesman do some good work on local stuff. I particularly like it showing the winners in previous years, not just change from last election.
Sunderland -Doxford Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788 Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719 Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301 Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146 Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Labour vote down.
Surprised an LD like you isn't cheered that the LD majority is now bigger than the number of votes for there nearest rival.
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.
Yes, some promising early evidence of tactical anti-Tory voting. Here's hoping it's widespread. If they can do it in Sunderland, then anything's possible.
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control. Mary Shelley was right.
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.
Oddly enough, I work in that field and GPT4 does a pretty good job when asked "Rewrite the following so that it is clear to " depending what you're after.
No sign of conservative collapse in the Sunderland seats. But perhaps Sunderland Tories are a hardy bunch.
In recent years my vague recollection is the swift declaring northern seats have been better than expected for the Tories (if still not good), but when the sleepy shires start declaring in the morning it all goes to hell.
You are correct, that is my clear recollection from last year - a blue mirage creating the Labour struggles in red wall headlines, that stayed up all day despite the Tory woes Friday afternoon.
But we were assured by forcasts it would be different this time, but Tory’s not struggling in Red Wall as yet.
Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651 Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780 Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122 Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210 Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
Tamworth will be interesting. It's always voted Labour when they've won a general election, (which is to say 2005, 2001, 1997, Oct 1974, 1966, 1964, 1950, 1945).
The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.
With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem. He demands a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. He thinks people care what he thinks about religion too. Every religion. Because they all want a king. Right. Right? The guy is f***ing gaga.
I'll give it a year, tops.
I bet the insiders are already discussing how to save the monarchy from him.
As far as Australia is concerned it appears this is old news as Sky are pushing a poll this evening that shows that support for a Republic has dropped and there is now 60% support for contiuing with the Monarchy
There is a Wokery infection afflicting Canada at the moment and depressing support for the monarchy.
But I'm very confident they don't want to be another republic just like America. They do want to work their current issues through and develop a more Canadian identity to their monarchy/governor-general though.
KCIII needs to respond to that.
There won't for starters because the Canadian PM Trudeau and Conservative leader of the Opposition Poilievre back keeping the monarchy, only the minor NDP and BQ want a republic
Of the other Commonwealth Realms polled, only the Bahamas and Solomon Islands have majority support for a Republic
It's all in how you phrase the question, but the following seems clear (from p.62 of the Ashcroft poll):
"If there were a referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?"
Options: "For my country to remain a constitutional monarchy with King Charles as head of state", "For my country to become a republic", and DK/WV.
Republic > keep the monarchy in Canada, Australia, Jamaica, Bahamas, Solomon Is, Northern Ireland, and Antigua and Barbuda.
So he's 5-2 down in the 7 sovereign countries other than Britain that have populations > 400,000, the monarchist two being NZ and Papua New Guinea.
Lose Canada, Australia, and Jamaica, and the republicans in the other 11 will have a lot of traction for saying that keeping the British king as head of state makes sovereignty a sham.
Republic is less than 50% in Canada and Australia and tied with retaining the monarchy in New Zealand.
There is zero chance of a monarchy referendum in Canada as both the governing Liberals and opposition Conservatives back retaining the monarchy. If Australia fails to vote for the indigenous voice referendum by a big majority later this year as some polls suggest even pro Republic Australian Labor PM Albanese may not risk another referendum on it. Most of the Caribbean already are now Republics so Jamaica going the same way makes little difference.
Sunderland -Doxford Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788 Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719 Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301 Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146 Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Labour vote down.
Surprised an LD like you isn't cheered that the LD majority is now bigger than the number of votes for the nearest rival.
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.
No. I’m just calling it straight like a psephologist not a spinner. The Labour vote didn’t stand still or advance just a little bit, as a good night would surely have produced, it went backwards. Could be tactical like you said, but could also be sign of Labour voter apathy in the Red Wall today.
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.
Am I weird?
Not particularly. The capacity to mentally visualise stuff apparently varies massively between individuals.
What do you 'see' when you're actually looking at her ?
Sunderland -Doxford Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788 Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719 Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301 Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146 Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Labour vote down.
Surprised an LD like you isn't cheered that the LD majority is now bigger than the number of votes for the nearest rival.
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.
No. I’m just calling it straight like a psephologist not a spinner. The Labour vote didn’t stand still or advance just a little bit, as a good night would surely have produced, it went backwards. Could be tactical like you said, but could also be sign of Labour voter apathy in the Red Wall today.
Another few results up on Britain elects, with LAB vote up 15-20% across them all.
Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651 Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780 Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122 Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210 Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward
Another huge 800 red wall Tory vote. If you were expecting the forecast Tory collapse that is.
Laura Kuenssberg is hosting the BBC's election night coverage. I think this might be the first time a woman has done so.
I have a) respect for - and b) beef with Laura k.
2017 election. It was her job to have a decent idea of what Theresa May was thinking.
The lecturn was placed outside number 10. She was openly musing, live on air, that surely, the PM couldn’t be about to announce an election?
Theresa May then announced an election.
I lost a small-to-moderate amount of money because I somewhat trusted that she had a decent grasp of the PM’s thinking/options.
She didn’t.
It was her job. She got played by TM.
I’d posted on here, prior, that TM clearly didn’t have a mandate and an election was a possibility. I overrode my own judgment, partly due to Laura K’s output.
Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651 Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780 Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122 Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210 Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward
Another huge 800 red wall Tory vote. If you were expecting the forecast Tory collapse that is.
What appears to be happening in Sunderland is that UKIP isn't standing this time, some votes are going to REF but lots to LAB (and a few to CON)
Labour seems to be picking up most of the UKIP vote in Sunderland. I don't know whether to be pleased or horrified. I'll sleep on it.
Isn't that where much of it came from? Gammons going back home to Labour....
Is this a surprise to anyone? I always assumed that in 2019 and earlier, seats were won for the Tories because their mate Nige took Labour votes that never would have gone blue.
Sunderland - Barnes Labour Co-op- Abdul Bakkar Haque 1272 Conservative - Kevin Leonard 1130 Reform UK - Alan Douglas Bilton 296 Liberal Democrats - Tim Ellis-Dale 248 Green - Mark Tyers 212
Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651 Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780 Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122 Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210 Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward
Another huge 800 red wall Tory vote. If you were expecting the forecast Tory collapse that is.
What appears to be happening in Sunderland is that UKIP isn't standing this time, some votes are going to REF but lots to LAB (and a few to CON)
Labour getting the Brexit voters back. What do Labour members in London think of that?
Need a bit more than that, John. In my county turnout was down in every single ward in 2013, and up in almost all in 2017 for example, so clear trends, but it was not massive in either case. You'd need a drop of more than a few percent on average to assume a problem.
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Swing 10% LD to Con there in LD led Cotswold, as I said expect a good night for Labour overall as the early Sunderland and Halton results suggest but a more mixed night for the LDs
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879 Conservative - David Sinclair 1036 Labour - Andy Stafford 718 Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126 Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108 Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348 Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160 Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254 Green - Rachel Featherstone 193 Reform UK - Keith Samme 152
This turnout down I think is hurting Labour most. Starmer not inspired people to the polling booth.
It's a local election. Taking only my own region as a guide turnout in only a handful of wards reaches 50%, and in many places is in the low to mid 20s, with the average probably being more like 33%.
Inspiring against a backdrop of local apathy is not easy.
Comments
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 158
https://youtu.be/aU31h-oddAs
2022 Lab 1061 Con 840 Greens 273
SKS lost 350 Councillors compared to "its worst ever leader"
“The 14th best bar in the world”, if we are to trust this dubious article
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-see-bangkok-without-the-crowds/
[Rebel Alliance troops cheer]
Am I weird?
Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788
Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719
Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301
Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146
Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results
Click on the ward and you get the breakdown/change
Don't worry I am off to bed now so no more tonight.
FWIW I think Tories will be 8 to 9 points behind on projected national share
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.
Not only did the LibDems pick up NONE of that previous Green 22.6%, their vote actually went down, from 5% to 3.6%.
Hard to see the cheer for the LibDems there....
But we were assured by forcasts it would be different this time, but Tory’s not struggling in Red Wall as yet.
2023: https://portal.southtyneside.info/elections/LocalGovernment.aspx?id=40&_gl=1*c5tbub*_ga*MjExMjkzNjk5MC4xNjgzMjM5ODA5*_ga_DNGKJ1HWT8*MTY4MzIzOTgwOS4xLjAuMTY4MzIzOTgwOS42MC4wLjA.&_ga=2.116016646.1247965159.1683239809-2112936990.1683239809
2022: https://portal.southtyneside.info/elections/LocalGovernment.aspx?id=39
LAB: 65.0% (+16.6)
CON: 13.6% (+2.6)
REF: 10.3% (+10.3)
LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 23.4% (-3.5)
No UKIP (-40.7) as prev
Silksworth (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 56.2% (+18.6)
CON: 19.0% (-0.8)
GRN: 13.3% (+3.7)
REF: 8.4% (+8.4)
LDEM: 3.0% (+3.0)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 32.8% (-3.2)
No UKIP (-28.3) as prev.
Looks a pretty solid Lab swing to me.
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651
Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780
Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122
Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210
Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward
There is zero chance of a monarchy referendum in Canada as both the governing Liberals and opposition Conservatives back retaining the monarchy. If Australia fails to vote for the indigenous voice referendum by a big majority later this year as some polls suggest even pro Republic Australian Labor PM Albanese may not risk another referendum on it. Most of the Caribbean already are now Republics so Jamaica going the same way makes little difference.
I don't know whether to be pleased or horrified.
I'll sleep on it.
It does seem possible though that Starmer is not anathema to Brexit voters, despite his history.
What do you 'see' when you're actually looking at her ?
Halton Castle
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ Lab 66.6 + 14.2
⬤ Grn 12.1 + 12.1
⬤ Ind 10.6 - 7.7
⬤ Con 6.8 - 11.2
⬤ LDem 4.0 - 7.3
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results
Doxford
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ LDem 59.2 + 16.5
⬤ Lab 23.8 + 0.5
⬤ Con 10.0 - 2.6
⬤ Ref 4.8 + 4.8
⬤ Grn 2.2 - 2.6
+/- with 2019
Previous winners (by year)
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results
Chesterton (Cotswold) council election result:
LDEM: 63.9% (-15.8)
CON: 24.9% (+4.6)
GRN: 11.2% (+11.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
2017 election. It was her job to have a decent idea of what Theresa May was thinking.
The lecturn was placed outside number 10. She was openly musing, live on air, that surely, the PM couldn’t be about to announce an election?
Theresa May then announced an election.
I lost a small-to-moderate amount of money because I somewhat trusted that she had a decent grasp of the PM’s thinking/options.
She didn’t.
It was her job. She got played by TM.
I’d posted on here, prior, that TM clearly didn’t have a mandate and an election was a possibility. I overrode my own judgment, partly due to Laura K’s output.
Lab +2
UKIP -2
No change for other parties.
Very small wards it seems.
Labour Co-op- Abdul Bakkar Haque 1272
Conservative - Kevin Leonard 1130
Reform UK - Alan Douglas Bilton 296
Liberal Democrats - Tim Ellis-Dale 248
Green - Mark Tyers 212
Lab gain.
Con won last year with 9% majority.
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879
Conservative - David Sinclair 1036
Labour - Andy Stafford 718
Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126
Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108
Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348
Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160
Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254
Green - Rachel Featherstone 193
Reform UK - Keith Samme 152
Inspiring against a backdrop of local apathy is not easy.
Bad news for the tories.
Very bad news.