Well I'm going to bed. With Con down 10 councillors after 7 of 230 councils according to the BBC summary clearly anything under 2000 losses will be a decent result.
Britain Elects have shat the bed and I'm heartbroken for him. He's tried hard, he's got a really good website and twitter and YouTube feed, and he's started a new stream and...there's no soundtrack. It's great. But without a soundtrack it's tedious. Damn.
Just a reminder: Gerrymandering is not the same as "vote supression". The Conservatives are being accused of using voter ID to make it harder for some opponents to vote -- how accurately I do not know. That, if true, would be vote supression, not gerrymandering.
In gerrymandering the ruling group (usually a party) draws district lines so as to maximize their chances of controlling a legislature. Typically they do this by concentrating the other party's voters in a few districts, while giving their own party safe majorities in the other districts. This can produce truly strange looking districts.
Some states now use independent commissions to prevent gerrymandering, with mixed success.
Two important things to know: Gerrymandering was practiced more by Democrats than Republicans after the New Deal, because they controlled more legislatures. That began to change after the 1994 and 2010 elections, when Clinton and Obama did so much to strengthen the Republican Party. (I could be wrong, but I suspect that the Guardian, for example, had little to say about gerrymandering when it was mostly practiced by American politicians they liked.)
"Gerrymandering was practiced more by Democrats than Republicans after the New Deal, because they controlled more legislatures."
Do you have a source for this statement? Both re: legislatures part AND gerrymandering?
My own impression, was that it was an equal-opportunity field for BOTH major parties. Often done for reasons other than partisan advantage, such as favoring one faction or candidate over another within the same party.
In 1980s, most notable congressional gerrymanders I can recall, were in California by Democrats, and in Indiana by Republicans.
Major difference was that the Dems did a smarter job than GOP, which cut things a bit TOO fine for their own good in the Hoosier State. Like the dumbass New York State Democrats in 2021!
The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.
Tight isn’t it.
Anything less than 8 and the main take out and headline is Labour under performance at real votes.
You have your hypothesis and will fit the evidence to it - as ever
No. Myself and all the other great psephologist in the country came up with the 10% mark puts Labour on course for election win, before a single vote was counted and the spin beginning.
Will you call 7% and less lead over Tories and way short of 40% PNE a great night for Labour? You won’t find a scientist who agrees with you, you’d just be spinning it.
Kerland & Oxenbury (Con prev) now NOC with a 12.7% swing from Green Ind/Residents but in East Cornwall Treworthival Emmet and neighbouring Dozmare under Pelsworthy (prev MK-Ld Coalition) now looks like Mebyon possible
Britain Elects have shat the bed and I'm heartbroken for him. He's tried hard, he's got a really good website and twitter and YouTube feed, and he's started a new stream and...there's no soundtrack. It's great. But without a soundtrack it's tedious. Damn.
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.
Positive news for Rob Halfon nonetheless, who is an excellent MP, Labour had hopes of winning Summers and Kingsmoor where the Tories had a 10% majority yet the Tories held it
The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.
Tight isn’t it.
Anything less than 8 and the main take out and headline is Labour under performance at real votes.
You have your hypothesis and will fit the evidence to it - as ever
No. Myself and all the other great psephologist in the country came up with the 10% mark puts Labour on course for election win, before a single vote was counted and the spin beginning.
Will you call 7% and less lead over Tories and way short of 40% PNE a great night for Labour? You won’t find a scientist who agrees with you, you’d just be spinning it.
Kerland & Oxenbury (Con prev) now NOC with a 12.7% swing from Green Ind/Residents but in East Cornwall Treworthival Emmet and neighbouring Dozmare under Pelsworthy (prev MK-Ld Coalition) now looks like Mebyon possible
SNP sympathy vote kicking in for fellow Celtic Nats?
Britain Elects have shat the bed and I'm heartbroken for him. He's tried hard, he's got a really good website and twitter and YouTube feed, and he's started a new stream and...there's no soundtrack. It's great. But without a soundtrack it's tedious. Damn.
Kerland & Oxenbury (Con prev) now NOC with a 12.7% swing from Green Ind/Residents but in East Cornwall Treworthival Emmet and neighbouring Dozmare under Pelsworthy (prev MK-Ld Coalition) now looks like Mebyon possible
Just above the critical threshold of 12.6%, which is equivalent to a GE swing of 10.3% in Rutherglen and Hamilton West according to my model (excel, 142 tabs).
Again Tories had a low bar, needing to win just 3 of 10 declaring to hold Redditch. Big (net) swing against them but they have held 3 of the first 5, the other two going to Labour.
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
Kerland & Oxenbury (Con prev) now NOC with a 12.7% swing from Green Ind/Residents but in East Cornwall Treworthival Emmet and neighbouring Dozmare under Pelsworthy (prev MK-Ld Coalition) now looks like Mebyon possible
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
Britain Elects have shat the bed and I'm heartbroken for him. He's tried hard, he's got a really good website and twitter and YouTube feed, and he's started a new stream and...there's no soundtrack. It's great. But without a soundtrack it's tedious. Damn.
As I say, you formed your favoured hypothesis and are now fitting the very limited evidence to it. Chill out. Go to bed. See where we are in 24 hours.
“Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.”
What are you on? The Tories only dropped -1. They won. Labour failed in a key target. You should pay more attention to the psephologists who call things without grace or favour. Though with some grace.
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!
Talking of made up names:
@AaronBastani Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!
Talking of made up names:
@AaronBastani Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!
Talking of made up names:
@AaronBastani Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!
Is Rimmington Pounder standing there? Or adopting some other position?
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!
Talking of made up names:
@AaronBastani Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
As I say, you formed your favoured hypothesis and are now fitting the very limited evidence to it. Chill out. Go to bed. See where we are in 24 hours.
“Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.”
What are you on? The Tories only dropped -1. They won. Labour failed in a key target. You should pay more attention to the psephologists who call things without grace or favour. Though with some grace.
Redditch was not a target. Labour up 16, Con down 1. Halve the difference and work out your swing.
SSI2 - A good source for congressional districting is Kenneth C. Martis's "Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress, 1789-1989. (I bought a copy years ago, and find it fascinating.)
As for the control of legislatures, recall that the "Solid South" was still controlled by Democrats for much of the post-WW II period. Even after states there were becoming competitive in presidential elections.
As I say, you formed your favoured hypothesis and are now fitting the very limited evidence to it. Chill out. Go to bed. See where we are in 24 hours.
“Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.”
What are you on? The Tories only dropped -1. They won. Labour failed in a key target. You should pay more attention to the psephologists who call things without grace or favour. Though with some grace.
Redditch was not a target. Labour up 16, Con down 1. Halve the difference and work out your swing.
Was it just between two parties? Not Labour picking up votes from independents or others?
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
SSI2 - A good source for congressional districting is Kenneth C. Martis's "Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress, 1789-1989. (I bought a copy years ago, and find it fascinating.)
As for the control of legislatures, recall that the "Solid South" was still controlled by Democrats for much of the post-WW II period. Even after states there were becoming competitive in presidential elections.
That atlas is indeed a classic! SERIOUSLY envy you, and just as seriously covet your tome!!
As to redistricting 1932-1992 (or thereabouts) also some solid Republican states. And for much of period you mention, the GOP was NOT competitive in most of Solid South, except in limited areas, such as East Tennessee (which you mentioned on PB a while back IIRC).
Interesting topic that deserves detailed & reasonably objective quantification. Certainly Martis is a decent starting point, though when it comes to gerrymandering, looks on a map CAN be deceiving.
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!
Talking of made up names:
@AaronBastani Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Sorry is MoonRabbit doing the usual contrarian bollocks where she pretends to not understand how swings work
With just 112 posts, how do you know what my usual election night bollocks are?
MoonRabbits psephology is only wrong if it doesn’t match your own hopes, dreams and spin.
I’ll give you a profound insight into my psephology genius for free. I don’t know why, because I don’t actually like you, but I will.
Politics should never have been measured on swings in the first place. Swings is all rubbish. We should be using roundabouts.
I have never read such bollocks in all my life. Get lost
Are you an incarnation of Correct Horse Battery?
You aren't supposed to dox posters you suspect of being former posters.
Anyway Dialup doesn't sound anything like Correct Horse Battery . Horse, don't forget, wasn't the most imaginative when it came to monikers. When he returns it will be as CHB4 or 5. I've lost count. It's a bit like the Rocky franchise.
BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choices
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence tho
Comments
Anything less than 8 and the main take out and headline is Labour under performance at real votes.
Labour +9%, Conservatives +1%, LDs +2%
THIS is the story of the night
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIg
Key wards: change since 2019 locals
Lab +9%
Con +1%
LD +2%
Green +0.2%
Ind -16%
Do you have a source for this statement? Both re: legislatures part AND gerrymandering?
My own impression, was that it was an equal-opportunity field for BOTH major parties. Often done for reasons other than partisan advantage, such as favoring one faction or candidate over another within the same party.
In 1980s, most notable congressional gerrymanders I can recall, were in California by Democrats, and in Indiana by Republicans.
Major difference was that the Dems did a smarter job than GOP, which cut things a bit TOO fine for their own good in the Hoosier State. Like the dumbass New York State Democrats in 2021!
So far Harlow 5 Labour holds, 2 Conservative holds and 1 Conservative gain
https://twitter.com/HarlowCouncil/status/1654269608642199552
Will you call 7% and less lead over Tories and way short of 40% PNE a great night for Labour? You won’t find a scientist who agrees with you, you’d just be spinning it.
Lab +1%
Con -5%
LD +2%
Green n/c
Ind -1%
🤣🤣🤣
Good that they’re going early with the share figures though (with 60 key seats in), to give some kind of idea.
https://twitter.com/RaoulDixonNNP/status/1654255125479796738/photo/1
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/FvUYQbZX0AIASm0?format=jpg&name=large
Oh well maybe a change of Government in 2028/9.
Edit. A massive swing for Con to Labour. Crack open the Mumm!
Lab 11 (-3)
Green 4 (+3)
Ind 3 (=)
Humza Yousaf please explain.
Damn Rishi! 😖
Edit: clarity
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
As I say, you formed your favoured hypothesis and are now fitting the very limited evidence to it. Chill out. Go to bed. See where we are in 24 hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27Nm3hygmC8
Laura K. and Paul Scully tag team owning Streeting.
What are you on? The Tories only dropped -1. They won. Labour failed in a key target. You should pay more attention to the psephologists who call things without grace or favour. Though with some grace.
@AaronBastani
Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1654187791016923136
(Might not be too many opportunities to use that, so going ugly early....)
LD +9
Lab +4
Grn +2
Residents +1
Ind -1
Con -12
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results
Con -4%
LD +0.3%
Lab +5%
As for the control of legislatures, recall that the "Solid South" was still controlled by Democrats for much of the post-WW II period. Even after states there were becoming competitive in presidential elections.
Lab +7%
Con -0.4%
LD +2%
Green -0.5%
Projected national share changes since 2022:
Lab +0.1%
Con -5%
LD +2%
Green +1%
Edit: updated figures
MoonRabbits psephology is only wrong if it doesn’t match your own hopes, dreams and spin.
I’ll give you a profound insight into my psephology genius for free. I don’t know why, because I don’t actually like you, but I will.
Politics should never have been measured on swings in the first place. Swings is all rubbish. We should be using roundabouts.
As to redistricting 1932-1992 (or thereabouts) also some solid Republican states. And for much of period you mention, the GOP was NOT competitive in most of Solid South, except in limited areas, such as East Tennessee (which you mentioned on PB a while back IIRC).
Interesting topic that deserves detailed & reasonably objective quantification. Certainly Martis is a decent starting point, though when it comes to gerrymandering, looks on a map CAN be deceiving.
Change in share compared to 2019 locals, 95 early wards
Lab +10.7%
Con -5.4%
LD -1.7%
Others -3.6%
He’s admitting he did it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65486437
The early results haven’t translated into a meltdown for the Tories as most of those held by them only have a third up for grabs .
Once those more marginal held Tory councils with the whole council come in I expect the meltdown to go into full swing .
LD +2 councillor
Lab -2 councillors
LD +7%
Lab +1%
Con -3%
Anyway Dialup doesn't sound anything like Correct Horse Battery . Horse, don't forget, wasn't the most imaginative when it came to monikers. When he returns it will be as CHB4 or 5. I've lost count. It's a bit like the Rocky franchise.