How will this map and table change tonight and tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Greens went from 362 votes last year to 762 this year in that wardMoonRabbit said:
As I said down thread, this is not Labour losing voters in large chunks to the greens, but Starmer failing to get Labour voters to the polls.AndreaParma_82 said:Green gain Biddick & All Saints in South Tyneside from Lab
It is a ward Greens didn't win last year1 -
Looks like the Tories have lost their only seat on Halton council.0
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Tight isn’t it.Andy_JS said:The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.
Anything less than 8 and the main take out and headline is Labour under performance at real votes.0 -
Didn’t that go to a Green? Not sure it says much about anything at allMoonRabbit said:
You calling West Fenham Newcastle result tactical?Anabobazina said:Tactical voting seems to be the big story of the extremely limited results so far
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And we won’t have a good steer on the projected national share till tomorrow afternoon, apparently. Time to put more coffee on.Andy_JS said:The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.1 -
Well I'm going to bed. With Con down 10 councillors after 7 of 230 councils according to the BBC summary clearly anything under 2000 losses will be a decent result.0
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NEV change since 2019 so far
Labour +9%, Conservatives +1%, LDs +2%2 -
Why Domino’s FFS? Rishi is a trillionaire and Just Eat and Deliveroo et al mean you can get fantastic artisanal pizzas in minutes. Domino’s???kle4 said:What a leader, what a man.
Conservative Campaign Headquarters has just taken delivery of 10 large Domino's pizzas personally paid for by Rishi Sunak.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1654221994622345216
THIS is the story of the night2 -
The
It was the phrase 'Sky news analysis' which was the giveaway missed by anabobazina 🤣MoonRabbit said:
By looking at the red wall results. They lost two of their red wall seats whilst you were typing.Anabobazina said:
Where are you getting this from? Sky News analysis says Labour outperforming national polling (early days caveat)MoonRabbit said:
Labour clearly underperforming in red wall. This night is starting to look a bit serious for Starmer and Labour.kle4 said:
A classic LD from nowhere victory. They do pull them off in some weird places sometimes.carnforth said:
Blimey! An independent before?Andy_JS said:"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"0 -
You have your hypothesis and will fit the evidence to it - as everMoonRabbit said:
Tight isn’t it.Andy_JS said:The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.
Anything less than 8 and the main take out and headline is Labour under performance at real votes.0 -
And get all the grief Osborne got for ordering from some fancy burger place? No thank you.Leon said:
Why Domino’s FFS? Rishi is a trillionaire and Just Eat and Deliveroo et al mean you can get fantastic artisanal pizzas in minutes. Domino’s???kle4 said:What a leader, what a man.
Conservative Campaign Headquarters has just taken delivery of 10 large Domino's pizzas personally paid for by Rishi Sunak.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1654221994622345216
THIS is the story of the night0 -
A career in punditry cannot be far off.Anabobazina said:
You have your hypothesis and will fit the evidence to it - as everMoonRabbit said:
Tight isn’t it.Andy_JS said:The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.
Anything less than 8 and the main take out and headline is Labour under performance at real votes.1 -
Britain Elects have shat the bed and I'm heartbroken for him. He's tried hard, he's got a really good website and twitter and YouTube feed, and he's started a new stream and...there's no soundtrack. It's great. But without a soundtrack it's tedious. Damn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIg
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To whom?MoonRabbit said:
By looking at the red wall results. They lost two of their red wall seats whilst you were typing.Anabobazina said:
Where are you getting this from? Sky News analysis says Labour outperforming national polling (early days caveat)MoonRabbit said:
Labour clearly underperforming in red wall. This night is starting to look a bit serious for Starmer and Labour.kle4 said:
A classic LD from nowhere victory. They do pull them off in some weird places sometimes.carnforth said:
Blimey! An independent before?Andy_JS said:"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"0 -
John Curtice
Key wards: change since 2019 locals
Lab +9%
Con +1%
LD +2%
Green +0.2%
Ind -16%1 -
The overall turnout for the 2023 Sunderland local election was 31.9% with 199,934 votes.
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Wow, John Curtice has aged!
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"Gerrymandering was practiced more by Democrats than Republicans after the New Deal, because they controlled more legislatures."Jim_Miller said:Just a reminder: Gerrymandering is not the same as "vote supression". The Conservatives are being accused of using voter ID to make it harder for some opponents to vote -- how accurately I do not know. That, if true, would be vote supression, not gerrymandering.
In gerrymandering the ruling group (usually a party) draws district lines so as to maximize their chances of controlling a legislature. Typically they do this by concentrating the other party's voters in a few districts, while giving their own party safe majorities in the other districts. This can produce truly strange looking districts.
Some states now use independent commissions to prevent gerrymandering, with mixed success.
Two important things to know: Gerrymandering was practiced more by Democrats than Republicans after the New Deal, because they controlled more legislatures. That began to change after the 1994 and 2010 elections, when Clinton and Obama did so much to strengthen the Republican Party. (I could be wrong, but I suspect that the Guardian, for example, had little to say about gerrymandering when it was mostly practiced by American politicians they liked.)
Second, because Democratic voters tend to be heavily concentrated in large cities, a "fair" districting algorithm, which ignored partisanship, might still give Republicans an advantage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States
Do you have a source for this statement? Both re: legislatures part AND gerrymandering?
My own impression, was that it was an equal-opportunity field for BOTH major parties. Often done for reasons other than partisan advantage, such as favoring one faction or candidate over another within the same party.
In 1980s, most notable congressional gerrymanders I can recall, were in California by Democrats, and in Indiana by Republicans.
Major difference was that the Dems did a smarter job than GOP, which cut things a bit TOO fine for their own good in the Hoosier State. Like the dumbass New York State Democrats in 2021!0 -
Conservatives gain Staple Tye from Labour in Harlow.
So far Harlow 5 Labour holds, 2 Conservative holds and 1 Conservative gain
https://twitter.com/HarlowCouncil/status/16542696086421995521 -
No. Myself and all the other great psephologist in the country came up with the 10% mark puts Labour on course for election win, before a single vote was counted and the spin beginning.Anabobazina said:
You have your hypothesis and will fit the evidence to it - as everMoonRabbit said:
Tight isn’t it.Andy_JS said:The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.
Anything less than 8 and the main take out and headline is Labour under performance at real votes.
Will you call 7% and less lead over Tories and way short of 40% PNE a great night for Labour? You won’t find a scientist who agrees with you, you’d just be spinning it.1 -
Kerland & Oxenbury (Con prev) now NOC with a 12.7% swing from Green Ind/Residents but in East Cornwall Treworthival Emmet and neighbouring Dozmare under Pelsworthy (prev MK-Ld Coalition) now looks like Mebyon possible1
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As usual, at that this time of night, nobody knows anything at all, including me, and certainly including @MoonRabbit2
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A shame to see only 5 people viewing it, but as you say without audio it's not much good.viewcode said:Britain Elects have shat the bed and I'm heartbroken for him. He's tried hard, he's got a really good website and twitter and YouTube feed, and he's started a new stream and...there's no soundtrack. It's great. But without a soundtrack it's tedious. Damn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIg0 -
He is. I have always been impressed by him.HYUFD said:
Positive news for Rob Halfon nonetheless, who is an excellent MP, Labour had hopes of winning Summers and Kingsmoor where the Tories had a 10% majority yet the Tories held itNeilVW said:
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.HYUFD said:Conservatives hold Harlow council
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Myself and all the *other* great psephologistsMoonRabbit said:
No. Myself and all the other great psephologist in the country came up with the 10% mark puts Labour on course for election win, before a single vote was counted and the spin beginning.Anabobazina said:
You have your hypothesis and will fit the evidence to it - as everMoonRabbit said:
Tight isn’t it.Andy_JS said:The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.
Anything less than 8 and the main take out and headline is Labour under performance at real votes.
Will you call 7% and less lead over Tories and way short of 40% PNE a great night for Labour? You won’t find a scientist who agrees with you, you’d just be spinning it.
🤣🤣🤣
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Have to bear in mind that Friday’s set of results could look completely different.
Good that they’re going early with the share figures though (with 60 key seats in), to give some kind of idea.2 -
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Holding Redditch is a big win for the Conservatives.
Oh well maybe a change of Government in 2028/9.
Edit. A massive swing for Con to Labour. Crack open the Mumm!2 -
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Only twenty years into the planned one thousand? I think not.Mexicanpete said:Holding Redditch is a big win for the Conservatives.
Oh well maybe a change of Government in 2028/9.2 -
Redditch - Tory hold.0
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SNP sympathy vote kicking in for fellow Celtic Nats?Leon said:Kerland & Oxenbury (Con prev) now NOC with a 12.7% swing from Green Ind/Residents but in East Cornwall Treworthival Emmet and neighbouring Dozmare under Pelsworthy (prev MK-Ld Coalition) now looks like Mebyon possible
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Yeah. Decent lad. He was on his stream earlier. I hope he reads this and doesn't get dispirited. If he shakes the bugs out he'll be great for #GE2024Andy_JS said:
A shame to see only 5 people viewing it, but as you say without audio it's not much good.viewcode said:Britain Elects have shat the bed and I'm heartbroken for him. He's tried hard, he's got a really good website and twitter and YouTube feed, and he's started a new stream and...there's no soundtrack. It's great. But without a soundtrack it's tedious. Damn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIg0 -
Redditch Labour +16%, Conservatives -1%1
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South Tyneside
Lab 11 (-3)
Green 4 (+3)
Ind 3 (=)0 -
Big Tory to Labour swing, which is interesting.Andy_JS said:Redditch - Tory hold.
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Just above the critical threshold of 12.6%, which is equivalent to a GE swing of 10.3% in Rutherglen and Hamilton West according to my model (excel, 142 tabs).Leon said:Kerland & Oxenbury (Con prev) now NOC with a 12.7% swing from Green Ind/Residents but in East Cornwall Treworthival Emmet and neighbouring Dozmare under Pelsworthy (prev MK-Ld Coalition) now looks like Mebyon possible
Humza Yousaf please explain.1 -
Tories just -1? Are you sure? Conservative vote holding up.HYUFD said:Redditch Labour +16%, Conservatives -1%
Damn Rishi! 😖0 -
Also notable that it was a Ind to Lab swing with the Tories flatlining.Mexicanpete said:
Big Tory to Labour swing, which is interesting.Andy_JS said:Redditch - Tory hold.
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Again Tories had a low bar, needing to win just 3 of 10 declaring to hold Redditch. Big (net) swing against them but they have held 3 of the first 5, the other two going to Labour.
Edit: clarity2 -
Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time2 -
Off to bed ready for results tomorrow, night all1
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Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.MoonRabbit said:
As I say, you formed your favoured hypothesis and are now fitting the very limited evidence to it. Chill out. Go to bed. See where we are in 24 hours.0 -
One psephologist's "flatlining" is another's "holding up".Andy_JS said:
Also notable that it was a Ind to Lab swing with the Tories flatlining.Mexicanpete said:
Big Tory to Labour swing, which is interesting.Andy_JS said:Redditch - Tory hold.
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Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!Leon said:Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time2 -
Declarations from Colchester live
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27Nm3hygmC81 -
From May 2019. Which was pretty poor for Tezzy MayMoonRabbit said:
Tories just -1? Are you sure? Conservative vote holding up.HYUFD said:Redditch Labour +16%, Conservatives -1%
Damn Rishi! 😖
Laura K. and Paul Scully tag team owning Streeting.0 -
Bloody hell, he's added a soundtrack! It's just music, but if he adds a bit of chat, it'd be better I think.viewcode said:
Yeah. Decent lad. He was on his stream earlier. I hope he reads this and doesn't get dispirited. If he shakes the bugs out he'll be great for #GE2024Andy_JS said:
A shame to see only 5 people viewing it, but as you say without audio it's not much good.viewcode said:Britain Elects have shat the bed and I'm heartbroken for him. He's tried hard, he's got a really good website and twitter and YouTube feed, and he's started a new stream and...there's no soundtrack. It's great. But without a soundtrack it's tedious. Damn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIg0 -
“Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.”Anabobazina said:
Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.MoonRabbit said:
As I say, you formed your favoured hypothesis and are now fitting the very limited evidence to it. Chill out. Go to bed. See where we are in 24 hours.
What are you on? The Tories only dropped -1. They won. Labour failed in a key target. You should pay more attention to the psephologists who call things without grace or favour. Though with some grace.1 -
NOC win Brentwood0
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Talking of made up names:SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!Leon said:Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
@AaronBastani
Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/16541877910169231363 -
Sounds rude.Mexicanpete said:
From May 2019. Which was pretty poor for Tezzy MayMoonRabbit said:
Tories just -1? Are you sure? Conservative vote holding up.HYUFD said:Redditch Labour +16%, Conservatives -1%
Damn Rishi! 😖
Laura K. and Paul Scully tag team owning Streeting.0 -
Sleazy broken Labour on the slide.AndreaParma_82 said:South Tyneside
Lab 11 (-3)
Green 4 (+3)
Ind 3 (=)
(Might not be too many opportunities to use that, so going ugly early....)3 -
Tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dems showing up in quite a few seats . Hopefully this holds into the GE .1
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With 5% of councils declared, changes so far in councillor numbers:
LD +9
Lab +4
Grn +2
Residents +1
Ind -1
Con -12
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results0 -
The Rimmington-Pounders sound like Leon's kind of gals....williamglenn said:
Talking of made up names:SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!Leon said:Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
@AaronBastani
Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/16541877910169231363 -
NOC win Brentwood
Bastani is a real nasty Corbynista t**t.williamglenn said:
Talking of made up names:SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!Leon said:Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
@AaronBastani
Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/16541877910169231360 -
Changes in Brentwood since 2019 locals:
Con -4%
LD +0.3%
Lab +5%0 -
Is Rimmington Pounder standing there? Or adopting some other position?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!Leon said:Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time0 -
The wheels really coming off for the Tories in Hartlepool.3
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BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.0
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His twit is about as funny as a rubber crutch.Mexicanpete said:NOC win Brentwood
Bastani is a real nasty Corbynista t**t.williamglenn said:
Talking of made up names:SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!Leon said:Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
@AaronBastani
Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/16541877910169231361 -
Redditch was not a target. Labour up 16, Con down 1. Halve the difference and work out your swing.MoonRabbit said:
“Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.”Anabobazina said:
Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.MoonRabbit said:
As I say, you formed your favoured hypothesis and are now fitting the very limited evidence to it. Chill out. Go to bed. See where we are in 24 hours.
What are you on? The Tories only dropped -1. They won. Labour failed in a key target. You should pay more attention to the psephologists who call things without grace or favour. Though with some grace.2 -
Laura leaning quickly back into being unbearable again. Time for bed I think
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SSI2 - A good source for congressional districting is Kenneth C. Martis's "Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress, 1789-1989. (I bought a copy years ago, and find it fascinating.)
As for the control of legislatures, recall that the "Solid South" was still controlled by Democrats for much of the post-WW II period. Even after states there were becoming competitive in presidential elections.0 -
Sorry is MoonRabbit doing the usual contrarian bollocks where she pretends to not understand how swings work2
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Was it just between two parties? Not Labour picking up votes from independents or others?Mexicanpete said:
Redditch was not a target. Labour up 16, Con down 1. Halve the difference and work out your swing.MoonRabbit said:
“Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.”Anabobazina said:
Massive swing to Labour in Redditch.MoonRabbit said:
As I say, you formed your favoured hypothesis and are now fitting the very limited evidence to it. Chill out. Go to bed. See where we are in 24 hours.
What are you on? The Tories only dropped -1. They won. Labour failed in a key target. You should pay more attention to the psephologists who call things without grace or favour. Though with some grace.0 -
The Tories can hold on in councils where only a third of seats are up . Looks like they’re going to be in trouble where the whole council is up .1
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He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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I'd like some coffee but it's probably better not to stay up all night.NeilVW said:
And we won’t have a good steer on the projected national share till tomorrow afternoon, apparently. Time to put more coffee on.Andy_JS said:The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.0 -
Projected national share changes since 2019:
Lab +7%
Con -0.4%
LD +2%
Green -0.5%
Projected national share changes since 2022:
Lab +0.1%
Con -5%
LD +2%
Green +1%
Edit: updated figures0 -
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence thoviewcode said:
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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With just 112 posts, how do you know what my usual election night bollocks are?Dialup said:Sorry is MoonRabbit doing the usual contrarian bollocks where she pretends to not understand how swings work
MoonRabbits psephology is only wrong if it doesn’t match your own hopes, dreams and spin.
I’ll give you a profound insight into my psephology genius for free. I don’t know why, because I don’t actually like you, but I will.
Politics should never have been measured on swings in the first place. Swings is all rubbish. We should be using roundabouts.0 -
4% Con to Lab swing at a general election would be hung parliament, Lab largest party territory?NeilVW said:Projected national share changes since 2019:
Lab +7%
Con -0.4%
LD +2%
Green -0.5%
Projected national share changes since 2022:
Lab +0.1%
Con -5%
LD +2%
Green +1%
Edit: updated figures2 -
That atlas is indeed a classic! SERIOUSLY envy you, and just as seriously covet your tome!!Jim_Miller said:SSI2 - A good source for congressional districting is Kenneth C. Martis's "Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress, 1789-1989. (I bought a copy years ago, and find it fascinating.)
As for the control of legislatures, recall that the "Solid South" was still controlled by Democrats for much of the post-WW II period. Even after states there were becoming competitive in presidential elections.
As to redistricting 1932-1992 (or thereabouts) also some solid Republican states. And for much of period you mention, the GOP was NOT competitive in most of Solid South, except in limited areas, such as East Tennessee (which you mentioned on PB a while back IIRC).
Interesting topic that deserves detailed & reasonably objective quantification. Certainly Martis is a decent starting point, though when it comes to gerrymandering, looks on a map CAN be deceiving.0 -
Stayin' Alive. BeeGees. Good boy, @BritainElects.viewcode said:
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence thoviewcode said:
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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Not the N-Trance version? 😈viewcode said:
Stayin' Alive. BeeGees. Good boy, @BritainElects.viewcode said:
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence thoviewcode said:
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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No. Really. Seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIglondonpubman said:
Not the N-Trance version? 😈viewcode said:
Stayin' Alive. BeeGees. Good boy, @BritainElects.viewcode said:
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence thoviewcode said:
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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...
Indeed. Ding-dong! (Thankyou Lesley Phillips).MarqueeMark said:
The Rimmington-Pounders sound like Leon's kind of gals....williamglenn said:
Talking of made up names:SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Fake news! REAL action is Rutting-in-the-Bush!Leon said:Is that really just a rumour from Pobbledown-over-Wold (West Lestaven)? Or someone trying to rig the markets?
I think there is big Asian money pumping out misinformation here, so bet accordingly. Cf also the dubious 1.47% swing to LD/Keep our Kiosks in Luggside St Neepery when we all know what happened last time
@AaronBastani
Labour’s (English) candidate in Pembrokeshire. This reads like a parody.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/16541877910169231360 -
Sky News
Change in share compared to 2019 locals, 95 early wards
Lab +10.7%
Con -5.4%
LD -1.7%
Others -3.6%3 -
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Pretty clear Brentwood would have been won by the Lib Dems if the whole council had been up.
The early results haven’t translated into a meltdown for the Tories as most of those held by them only have a third up for grabs .
Once those more marginal held Tory councils with the whole council come in I expect the meltdown to go into full swing .1 -
I have never read such bollocks in all my life. Get lostMoonRabbit said:
With just 112 posts, how do you know what my usual election night bollocks are?Dialup said:Sorry is MoonRabbit doing the usual contrarian bollocks where she pretends to not understand how swings work
MoonRabbits psephology is only wrong if it doesn’t match your own hopes, dreams and spin.
I’ll give you a profound insight into my psephology genius for free. I don’t know why, because I don’t actually like you, but I will.
Politics should never have been measured on swings in the first place. Swings is all rubbish. We should be using roundabouts.0 -
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssbergviewcode said:
No. Really. Seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIglondonpubman said:
Not the N-Trance version? 😈viewcode said:
Stayin' Alive. BeeGees. Good boy, @BritainElects.viewcode said:
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence thoviewcode said:
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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Seems consistent with what I feel is the most likely outcome.GIN1138 said:
4% Con to Lab swing at a general election would be hung parliament, Lab largest party territory?NeilVW said:Projected national share changes since 2019:
Lab +7%
Con -0.4%
LD +2%
Green -0.5%
Projected national share changes since 2022:
Lab +0.1%
Con -5%
LD +2%
Green +1%
Edit: updated figures0 -
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.viewcode said:
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssbergviewcode said:
No. Really. Seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIglondonpubman said:
Not the N-Trance version? 😈viewcode said:
Stayin' Alive. BeeGees. Good boy, @BritainElects.viewcode said:
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence thoviewcode said:
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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Not the easiest mistake to make in the changing rooms at H and M, I wouldn't have thought.MoonRabbit said:Wait!
He’s admitting he did it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-654864370 -
Are you an incarnation of Correct Horse Battery?Dialup said:
I have never read such bollocks in all my life. Get lostMoonRabbit said:
With just 112 posts, how do you know what my usual election night bollocks are?Dialup said:Sorry is MoonRabbit doing the usual contrarian bollocks where she pretends to not understand how swings work
MoonRabbits psephology is only wrong if it doesn’t match your own hopes, dreams and spin.
I’ll give you a profound insight into my psephology genius for free. I don’t know why, because I don’t actually like you, but I will.
Politics should never have been measured on swings in the first place. Swings is all rubbish. We should be using roundabouts.0 -
How do you explain Harlow? Or the Labour losses in Tyneside? Or in Lincoln?nico679 said:Pretty clear Brentwood would have been won by the Lib Dems if the whole council had been up.
The early results haven’t translated into a meltdown for the Tories as most of those held by them only have a third up for grabs .
Once those more marginal held Tory councils with the whole council come in I expect the meltdown to go into full swing .0 -
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…
Presumably the rival measure, the NEV from Rallings and Thrasher. 95 wards, not sure how many wards the BBC have tallied yet.GIN1138 said:
5% Con to Lab swing is getting a bit closer to a small Labour majority at a general election.Andy_JS said:Sky News
Change in share compared to 2019 locals, 95 early wards
Lab +10.7%
Con -5.4%
LD -1.7%
Others -3.6%
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Hull
LD +2 councillor
Lab -2 councillors
LD +7%
Lab +1%
Con -3%0 -
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only notviewcode said:
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.viewcode said:
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssbergviewcode said:
No. Really. Seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIglondonpubman said:
Not the N-Trance version? 😈viewcode said:
Stayin' Alive. BeeGees. Good boy, @BritainElects.viewcode said:
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence thoviewcode said:
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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...
You aren't supposed to dox posters you suspect of being former posters.MoonRabbit said:
Are you an incarnation of Correct Horse Battery?Dialup said:
I have never read such bollocks in all my life. Get lostMoonRabbit said:
With just 112 posts, how do you know what my usual election night bollocks are?Dialup said:Sorry is MoonRabbit doing the usual contrarian bollocks where she pretends to not understand how swings work
MoonRabbits psephology is only wrong if it doesn’t match your own hopes, dreams and spin.
I’ll give you a profound insight into my psephology genius for free. I don’t know why, because I don’t actually like you, but I will.
Politics should never have been measured on swings in the first place. Swings is all rubbish. We should be using roundabouts.
Anyway Dialup doesn't sound anything like Correct Horse Battery . Horse, don't forget, wasn't the most imaginative when it came to monikers. When he returns it will be as CHB4 or 5. I've lost count. It's a bit like the Rocky franchise.2 -
5 Wagon. [Action Bronson/Meyhem Lauren] . @BritainElects, you're a nice middle-class lad with an election website. This is posing.viewcode said:
Now some ambient thing. Sounds like the soundtrack to Annihilation, only notviewcode said:
"I wanna make up right now na na", Akon. Hmph.viewcode said:
Wow. Joan Baez??? "Here's to you (Nicola and Bart)". You don't get this s**t on Laura Kuenssbergviewcode said:
No. Really. Seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIglondonpubman said:
Not the N-Trance version? 😈viewcode said:
Stayin' Alive. BeeGees. Good boy, @BritainElects.viewcode said:
And now it's Last Man Standing by Hammerfall. Ho-hum. Still better than silence thoviewcode said:
He very nearly lost it with a segue to "D'Y'Ken John Peel" on an oompah band. But now he's doing Ubu by Methyl Ethel. Dude, great choicesviewcode said:BritainElects just played an orchestral cover of "Paint It Black". And now it's "If You Were a Woman (And I Was a Man)" by Bonnie Tyler. I thought it was Pat Benatar but it isn't. If he does T'Pau I will bop.
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