@lewis_goodall 6m Statement from Electoral Commission. They say overall the elections were “well run” but that voter- ID “posed a greater challenge for some groups in society and that some people were regrettably unable to vote as a result.”
Hopefully "groups in society" that don't vote Conservative.
Well yes would be funny if Tory gerrymandering backfired
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
‘Truly gobsmacked’: Ancient-human genome count surpasses 10,000 The majority of sequences come from people who lived in Western Eurasia, but samples from other regions are on the rise. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01403-4
LD MP Sarah Olney describing the situation I was talking about earlier, regarding maiden and married names for women voters.
An issue that crops up in every election I've ever observed in WA. And one where having ample time to canvass ballots, and contact voters if need be for clarification, helps prevent women from disenfranchisement.
But if getting the numbers ASAP all else be damned, then tough titty?
Early signs that Labour has recovered in the Red Wall
Does Sunderland count as the Red Wall? All 3 parliamentary seats there are still Labour.
People tend to refer to the Red War generically as any long term Labour seat in the North now.
I'd say Sunderland counts - it's in the area which saw a lot of Tory gains, and each seat has been trending Conservative and have small majorities, though each are rather new on their current boundaries.
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
The big winners are the Can't Be Arsed Party.
Starmer doesn't have the policies to beat them.
Looks like the ID tactic could be tonight's winner.
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879 Conservative - David Sinclair 1036 Labour - Andy Stafford 718 Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126 Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108 Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348 Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160 Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254 Green - Rachel Featherstone 193 Reform UK - Keith Samme 152
Looks like a failure for Labour there, what’s the % movement?
1st result from South Tyneside Robin Anthony Coombes (Independent) - 402 Ernest Matthew Gibson (Labour Party) - 916 Dawn Wildhirt (Conservative Party) - 111 Sophie Jane Williams (Green Party) - 165
Last year it was Lab 941 Ind 420 Con 248 Greens 200
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.
Any particularly good ward names so far? Looking at Cotswolds they have 'Grumbolds Ash with Avening', 'Chedworth and Churn Valley' and 'The Ampneys and Hampton' still to come.
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879 Conservative - David Sinclair 1036 Labour - Andy Stafford 718 Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126 Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108 Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348 Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160 Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254 Green - Rachel Featherstone 193 Reform UK - Keith Samme 152
Looks like a failure for Labour there, what’s the % movement?
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879 Conservative - David Sinclair 1036 Labour - Andy Stafford 718 Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126 Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108 Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348 Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160 Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254 Green - Rachel Featherstone 193 Reform UK - Keith Samme 152
Looks like a failure for Labour there, what’s the % movement?
Looks like anti-Tory tactical voting?
Half 450 Lib Dem and green votes would have given Labour comfortable win. But I was referring to how to the Tory vote held up to win, Lab not getting enough Con to Lab in this seat, or most seats declared really.
The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?
I predicted 814.
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?
John Curtis I think. Labour to gain 500
The Tories will have dodged a bullet if that proves the case. I would call Curtis wrong at this point, Tory losses could still top 1000
If Curtice is right which he invariably is, that is a Starmer-out disaster and a massive victory for Rishi.
I love it when a party which loses hundreds of seats can claim victory - it demonstrates the success of their expectations management, and the spin doctors should get a raise.
Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651 Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780 Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122 Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210 Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward
Another huge 800 red wall Tory vote. If you were expecting the forecast Tory collapse that is.
What appears to be happening in Sunderland is that UKIP isn't standing this time, some votes are going to REF but lots to LAB (and a few to CON)
Labour getting the Brexit voters back. What do Labour members in London think of that?
Not much I suspect. Brexit is a none issue nowadays - it’s a done deal and we have to move on.
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.
Yes logic fail again for critics - proof will be in the pudding. Were the Tories really trying to do something about voter fraud - or will they abandon it when it affects their own vote falls more than expected. My personal opinion is that it seemed pretty well advertised that you could get a free id through the council, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect people to provide ID when they vote - I have to provide ID to pick up a parcel from the local sorting office.
The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?
I predicted 814.
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?
John Curtis I think. Labour to gain 500
The Tories will have dodged a bullet if that proves the case. I would call Curtis wrong at this point, Tory losses could still top 1000
If Curtice is right which he invariably is, that is a Starmer-out disaster and a massive victory for Rishi.
It wouldn’t be a Starmer out result winning just 500 councillors, and Tories only dropping 800 - but it would make it very tight to achieving 10 points ahead on PNE and a % around 39 or 40. And that would look bad underperformance for Starmer and Labour.
For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.
Yes logic fail again for critics - proof will be in the pudding. Were the Tories really trying to do something about voter fraud - or will they abandon it when it affects their own vote falls more than expected. My personal opinion is that it seemed pretty well advertised that you could get a free id through the council, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect people to provide ID when they vote - I have to provide ID to pick up a parcel from the local sorting office.
It was advertised about as well as local government could make it, and the media has amplified it quite a bit.
Though even if it is the case that the elderly Tory vote was most affected that doesn't necessarily prove it was not an attempt to suppress others - it could just mean the policy backfired.
For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
Any reason why you didn't vote for Mark Oaten IYDMMA?
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.
Yes logic fail again for critics - proof will be in the pudding. Were the Tories really trying to do something about voter fraud - or will they abandon it when it affects their own vote falls more than expected. My personal opinion is that it seemed pretty well advertised that you could get a free id through the council, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect people to provide ID when they vote - I have to provide ID to pick up a parcel from the local sorting office.
It was the Labour Party that introduced The Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act 2002
The act required voters to present a photographic identity card at a polling station before casting a vote, with the Northern Ireland Electoral Identity Card created for voters without an acceptable form of ID.
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.
Yes logic fail again for critics - proof will be in the pudding. Were the Tories really trying to do something about voter fraud - or will they abandon it when it affects their own vote falls more than expected. My personal opinion is that it seemed pretty well advertised that you could get a free id through the council, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect people to provide ID when they vote - I have to provide ID to pick up a parcel from the local sorting office.
It was advertised about as well as local government could make it, and the media has amplified it quite a bit.
Though even if it is the case that the elderly Tory vote was most affected that doesn't necessarily prove it was not an attempt to suppress others - it could just mean the policy backfired.
For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
Any reason why you didn't vote for Mark Oaten IYDMMA?
Any particularly good ward names so far? Looking at Cotswolds they have 'Grumbolds Ash with Avening', 'Chedworth and Churn Valley' and 'The Ampneys and Hampton' still to come.
God I love the UK so much.
Wytcherywalnut. The votes neatly split between Wytches and nuts.
Lib Dems getting some remarkable results apparently. Good news as they're the most anti Brexit Party. Starmer made a tactical error ignoring the country's antipathy to Brexit.
With a very big swing. Also a big swing to them in a seat they hold. And another gain. Looks like it is going to be carnage in Brentwood.
Not great results there, though the first seat the LDs won was held by them before in the late 1990s, early 2000s so not a total surprise on current polls
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.
For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
You could vote lib dem, green then Oaten for a chance to sink the blue
Sunderland, St Michael's Conservative - Adele Graham-King1432 Labour - Chris Smith1378 Green - John Appleton 201 Liberal Democrats - Colin Wilson 110 Reform UK - Chris Eynon 273
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.
Positive news for Rob Halfon nonetheless, who is an excellent MP, Labour had hopes of winning Summers and Kingsmoor where the Tories had a 10% majority yet the Tories held it
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.
Positive news for Rob Halfon nonetheless, who is an excellent MP, Labour had hopes of winning Summers and Kingsmoor where the Tories had a 10% majority yet the Tories held it
Yes Halfon has a 32% majority in Harlow (2019 boundaries). So 16% swing needed for LAB, doesn't look likely on these results, good news, Halfon is indeed an excellent MP.
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.
Positive news for Rob Halfon nonetheless, who is an excellent MP, Labour had hopes of winning Summers and Kingsmoor where the Tories had a 10% majority yet the Tories held it
For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
Any reason why you didn't vote for Mark Oaten IYDMMA?
It was for one of his policies around the local arts venue - he wants to re-open it and the local action group have a plan - which he supports. I have seen the plan and know about the current building condition and they think they can get volunteers to renovate a 60s theatre complex that has flat roofs, an oil heating system and electrics that are at end of life for less than 250k. I reckon they would be lucky to get it operational again for four times that. So for someone who was a leadership contender I don't like his judgement - either he knows and understands all this and should know it's crap, or he's trying to curry favour with all the luvvies. Pretty niche I know but that is local elections for you!!!
Brentwood is interesting in a way, but the Tories are never going to lose it at a general election.
Labour up 4% in Brentwood, LDs up 3%, Tories down 6%.
So main swing Tory to Labour yet LDs main seat gainers. Brentwood itself has Labour and LD councillors, it is the rural bits in Ongar which give Alex Burghart a large constituency majority yet they are in Epping Forest district council area not Brentwood council like where we now live
Just a reminder: Gerrymandering is not the same as "vote supression". The Conservatives are being accused of using voter ID to make it harder for some opponents to vote -- how accurately I do not know. That, if true, would be vote supression, not gerrymandering.
In gerrymandering the ruling group (usually a party) draws district lines so as to maximize their chances of controlling a legislature. Typically they do this by concentrating the other party's voters in a few districts, while giving their own party safe majorities in the other districts. This can produce truly strange looking districts.
Some states now use independent commissions to prevent gerrymandering, with mixed success.
Two important things to know: Gerrymandering was practiced more by Democrats than Republicans after the New Deal, because they controlled more legislatures. That began to change after the 1994 and 2010 elections, when Clinton and Obama did so much to strengthen the Republican Party. (I could be wrong, but I suspect that the Guardian, for example, had little to say about gerrymandering when it was mostly practiced by American politicians they liked.)
Comments
Starmer doesn't have the policies to beat them.
The majority of sequences come from people who lived in Western Eurasia, but samples from other regions are on the rise.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01403-4
Tories removing the vote from married women.
That’s a bad look.
But if getting the numbers ASAP all else be damned, then tough titty?
I'd say Sunderland counts - it's in the area which saw a lot of Tory gains, and each seat has been trending Conservative and have small majorities, though each are rather new on their current boundaries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Psq2-EzHFIg
Robin Anthony Coombes (Independent) - 402
Ernest Matthew Gibson (Labour Party) - 916
Dawn Wildhirt (Conservative Party) - 111
Sophie Jane Williams (Green Party) - 165
Last year it was
Lab 941 Ind 420 Con 248 Greens 200
God I love the UK so much.
A very small swing to LAB in Basildon...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
3m
Nethermayne (Basildon) council election result:
IND: 66.3% (-11.0)
LAB: 19.1% (+6.0)
CON: 9.6% (+2.7)
LDEM: 4.9% (+4.9)
Independent HOLD.
Turnout: 22.8% (-9.1)
Nethermayne
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ Ind 66.3 - 11.0
⬤ Lab 19.1 + 6.0
⬤ Con 9.6 + 2.7
⬤ LDem 4.9 + 4.9
+/- with 2019
Warning: graphic video.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1654263502838845440
Sunderland
Fulwell
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ LDem 48.1 + 28.5
⬤ Con 26.5 - 4.2
⬤ Lab 18.4 - 10.7
⬤ Ref 3.2 + 3.2
⬤ Grn 2.8 - 3.7
+/- with 2019
https://flourish-user-preview.com/13553613/KGHri_VQrEFROvtAae_X-AhUFfD0DgGauvbf8KMQ1XDwbV0qdYBq5yPfltlVxfv7/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000095
Result very similar to last year
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1654263840907882496
Though even if it is the case that the elderly Tory vote was most affected that doesn't necessarily prove it was not an attempt to suppress others - it could just mean the policy backfired.
The act required voters to present a photographic identity card at a polling station before casting a vote, with the Northern Ireland Electoral Identity Card created for voters without an acceptable form of ID.
Anything going on?
Perfick 🤗
Sir Ed could turn out to be a Knight to remember
Conservative Campaign Headquarters has just taken delivery of 10 large Domino's pizzas personally paid for by Rishi Sunak.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1654221994622345216
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2023/may/04/elections-2023-results-live-local-council-england
Lab 17
LD 1
Con 0
Only change is 1 Lab gain from Con (Daresbury, Moore & Sandymoor)
Labour will be very happy with that !
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)
Conservative - Adele Graham-King1432
Labour - Chris Smith1378
Green - John Appleton 201
Liberal Democrats - Colin Wilson 110
Reform UK - Chris Eynon 273
2022: Con 1832 Lab 1201 Green 231 LD139
So main swing Tory to Labour yet LDs main seat gainers. Brentwood itself has Labour and LD councillors, it is the rural bits in Ongar which give Alex Burghart a large constituency majority yet they are in Epping Forest district council area not Brentwood council like where we now live
It is a ward Greens didn't win last year
Newcastle though isn’t really typical red wall.
It’s the straight fights between the Tories and Labour that are key .
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.
In gerrymandering the ruling group (usually a party) draws district lines so as to maximize their chances of controlling a legislature. Typically they do this by concentrating the other party's voters in a few districts, while giving their own party safe majorities in the other districts. This can produce truly strange looking districts.
Some states now use independent commissions to prevent gerrymandering, with mixed success.
Two important things to know: Gerrymandering was practiced more by Democrats than Republicans after the New Deal, because they controlled more legislatures. That began to change after the 1994 and 2010 elections, when Clinton and Obama did so much to strengthen the Republican Party. (I could be wrong, but I suspect that the Guardian, for example, had little to say about gerrymandering when it was mostly practiced by American politicians they liked.)
Second, because Democratic voters tend to be heavily concentrated in large cities, a "fair" districting algorithm, which ignored partisanship, might still give Republicans an advantage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States