How will this map and table change tonight and tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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John Curtis I think. Labour to gain 500MoonRabbit said:
I predicted 814.Roger said:The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?0 -
Starmer fans please explain!bigjohnowls said:
Well yes would be funny if Tory gerrymandering backfiredMexicanpete said:...
Hopefully "groups in society" that don't vote Conservative.Scott_xP said:@lewis_goodall
6m
Statement from Electoral Commission. They say overall the elections were “well run” but that voter- ID “posed a greater challenge for some groups in society and that some people were regrettably unable to vote as a result.”0 -
The big winners are the Can't Be Arsed Party.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Starmer doesn't have the policies to beat them.1 -
‘Truly gobsmacked’: Ancient-human genome count surpasses 10,000
The majority of sequences come from people who lived in Western Eurasia, but samples from other regions are on the rise.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01403-40 -
The Tories will have dodged a bullet if that proves the case. I would call Curtis wrong at this point, Tory losses could still top 1000Roger said:
John Curtis I think. Labour to gain 500MoonRabbit said:
I predicted 814.Roger said:The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?0 -
Lol.
Tories removing the vote from married women.
That’s a bad look.0 -
An issue that crops up in every election I've ever observed in WA. And one where having ample time to canvass ballots, and contact voters if need be for clarification, helps prevent women from disenfranchisement.Andy_JS said:LD MP Sarah Olney describing the situation I was talking about earlier, regarding maiden and married names for women voters.
But if getting the numbers ASAP all else be damned, then tough titty?0 -
People tend to refer to the Red War generically as any long term Labour seat in the North now.Andy_JS said:
Does Sunderland count as the Red Wall? All 3 parliamentary seats there are still Labour.Dialup said:Early signs that Labour has recovered in the Red Wall
I'd say Sunderland counts - it's in the area which saw a lot of Tory gains, and each seat has been trending Conservative and have small majorities, though each are rather new on their current boundaries.1 -
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
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Looks like the ID tactic could be tonight's winner.MarqueeMark said:
The big winners are the Can't Be Arsed Party.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Starmer doesn't have the policies to beat them.0 -
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.Andy_JS said:
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
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Looks like a failure for Labour there, what’s the % movement?AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879
Conservative - David Sinclair 1036
Labour - Andy Stafford 718
Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126
Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108
Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348
Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160
Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254
Green - Rachel Featherstone 193
Reform UK - Keith Samme 1520 -
1st result from South Tyneside
Robin Anthony Coombes (Independent) - 402
Ernest Matthew Gibson (Labour Party) - 916
Dawn Wildhirt (Conservative Party) - 111
Sophie Jane Williams (Green Party) - 165
Last year it was
Lab 941 Ind 420 Con 248 Greens 2000 -
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.kle4 said:
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.Andy_JS said:
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
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Any particularly good ward names so far? Looking at Cotswolds they have 'Grumbolds Ash with Avening', 'Chedworth and Churn Valley' and 'The Ampneys and Hampton' still to come.
God I love the UK so much.0 -
Looks like anti-Tory tactical voting?MoonRabbit said:
Looks like a failure for Labour there, what’s the % movement?AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879
Conservative - David Sinclair 1036
Labour - Andy Stafford 718
Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126
Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108
Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348
Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160
Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254
Green - Rachel Featherstone 193
Reform UK - Keith Samme 1521 -
A very small swing to LAB in Basildon...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
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3m
Nethermayne (Basildon) council election result:
IND: 66.3% (-11.0)
LAB: 19.1% (+6.0)
CON: 9.6% (+2.7)
LDEM: 4.9% (+4.9)
Independent HOLD.
Turnout: 22.8% (-9.1)0 -
Basildon
Nethermayne
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ Ind 66.3 - 11.0
⬤ Lab 19.1 + 6.0
⬤ Con 9.6 + 2.7
⬤ LDem 4.9 + 4.9
+/- with 20190 -
If Curtice is right which he invariably is, that is a Starmer-out disaster and a massive victory for Rishi.MoonRabbit said:
The Tories will have dodged a bullet if that proves the case. I would call Curtis wrong at this point, Tory losses could still top 1000Roger said:
John Curtis I think. Labour to gain 500MoonRabbit said:
I predicted 814.Roger said:The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?0 -
Half 450 Lib Dem and green votes would have given Labour comfortable win. But I was referring to how to the Tory vote held up to win, Lab not getting enough Con to Lab in this seat, or most seats declared really.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Looks like anti-Tory tactical voting?MoonRabbit said:
Looks like a failure for Labour there, what’s the % movement?AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879
Conservative - David Sinclair 1036
Labour - Andy Stafford 718
Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126
Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108
Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348
Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160
Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254
Green - Rachel Featherstone 193
Reform UK - Keith Samme 1521 -
Any of the mayoral votes interesting or are they all obvious results?0
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Laura seems slightly more bearable than in her political correspondent days. But it’s still early doors0
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I love it when a party which loses hundreds of seats can claim victory - it demonstrates the success of their expectations management, and the spin doctors should get a raise.Mexicanpete said:
If Curtice is right which he invariably is, that is a Starmer-out disaster and a massive victory for Rishi.MoonRabbit said:
The Tories will have dodged a bullet if that proves the case. I would call Curtis wrong at this point, Tory losses could still top 1000Roger said:
John Curtis I think. Labour to gain 500MoonRabbit said:
I predicted 814.Roger said:The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?4 -
Evgeny Prigozhin is stepping up his attacks on the Russian government for failing to supply enough ammunition.
Warning: graphic video.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/16542635028388454400 -
Is that the infamous Kerry Smith?londonpubman said:
A very small swing to LAB in Basildon...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
3m
Nethermayne (Basildon) council election result:
IND: 66.3% (-11.0)
LAB: 19.1% (+6.0)
CON: 9.6% (+2.7)
LDEM: 4.9% (+4.9)
Independent HOLD.
Turnout: 22.8% (-9.1)0 -
LDem gain from Con
Sunderland
Fulwell
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ LDem 48.1 + 28.5
⬤ Con 26.5 - 4.2
⬤ Lab 18.4 - 10.7
⬤ Ref 3.2 + 3.2
⬤ Grn 2.8 - 3.7
+/- with 2019
https://flourish-user-preview.com/13553613/KGHri_VQrEFROvtAae_X-AhUFfD0DgGauvbf8KMQ1XDwbV0qdYBq5yPfltlVxfv7/0 -
Not much I suspect. Brexit is a none issue nowadays - it’s a done deal and we have to move on.Andy_JS said:
Labour getting the Brexit voters back. What do Labour members in London think of that?londonpubman said:
What appears to be happening in Sunderland is that UKIP isn't standing this time, some votes are going to REF but lots to LAB (and a few to CON)MoonRabbit said:
Another huge 800 red wall Tory vote. If you were expecting the forecast Tory collapse that is.AndreaParma_82 said:Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651
Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780
Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122
Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210
Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward1 -
Yes logic fail again for critics - proof will be in the pudding. Were the Tories really trying to do something about voter fraud - or will they abandon it when it affects their own vote falls more than expected. My personal opinion is that it seemed pretty well advertised that you could get a free id through the council, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect people to provide ID when they vote - I have to provide ID to pick up a parcel from the local sorting office.williamglenn said:
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.kle4 said:
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.Andy_JS said:
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
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No change in Broxbourne, as usual. Con 27, Lab 3. (Tonight Con 9, Lab 1).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E070000951 -
Easy Green gain from Lab in West Park (South Tyneside)
Result very similar to last year0 -
Labour hold Newcastle and Tyneside councils, Conservatives hold Broxbourne council1
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They’ve given Hugh a break. Makes sense for this lesser event, she is the political editor after all. So far, so good.Anabobazina said:Laura seems slightly more bearable than in her political correspondent days. But it’s still early doors
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LDs gain a seat in Brentwood0
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Early doors yet but I'm sensing Labour doing best in places they already hold comfortably.1
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He always looks exhausted!biggles said:Christ, Curtice already looks knackered. Get him coffee.
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It wouldn’t be a Starmer out result winning just 500 councillors, and Tories only dropping 800 - but it would make it very tight to achieving 10 points ahead on PNE and a % around 39 or 40. And that would look bad underperformance for Starmer and Labour.Mexicanpete said:
If Curtice is right which he invariably is, that is a Starmer-out disaster and a massive victory for Rishi.MoonRabbit said:
The Tories will have dodged a bullet if that proves the case. I would call Curtis wrong at this point, Tory losses could still top 1000Roger said:
John Curtis I think. Labour to gain 500MoonRabbit said:
I predicted 814.Roger said:The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?0 -
For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.0
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Small swing to the Tories in St Chad's / Sunderland.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/16542638409078824962 -
Nethermayne About that one 😇londonpubman said:
A very small swing to LAB in Basildon...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
3m
Nethermayne (Basildon) council election result:
IND: 66.3% (-11.0)
LAB: 19.1% (+6.0)
CON: 9.6% (+2.7)
LDEM: 4.9% (+4.9)
Independent HOLD.
Turnout: 22.8% (-9.1)1 -
It was advertised about as well as local government could make it, and the media has amplified it quite a bit.Nemtynakht said:
Yes logic fail again for critics - proof will be in the pudding. Were the Tories really trying to do something about voter fraud - or will they abandon it when it affects their own vote falls more than expected. My personal opinion is that it seemed pretty well advertised that you could get a free id through the council, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect people to provide ID when they vote - I have to provide ID to pick up a parcel from the local sorting office.williamglenn said:
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.kle4 said:
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.Andy_JS said:
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Though even if it is the case that the elderly Tory vote was most affected that doesn't necessarily prove it was not an attempt to suppress others - it could just mean the policy backfired.0 -
Any reason why you didn't vote for Mark Oaten IYDMMA?Nemtynakht said:For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
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I hope his replacement, when it comes, is more beloved than His Majesty replacing Elizabeth II.Anabobazina said:
He always looks exhausted!biggles said:Christ, Curtice already looks knackered. Get him coffee.
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It was the Labour Party that introduced The Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act 2002Nemtynakht said:
Yes logic fail again for critics - proof will be in the pudding. Were the Tories really trying to do something about voter fraud - or will they abandon it when it affects their own vote falls more than expected. My personal opinion is that it seemed pretty well advertised that you could get a free id through the council, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect people to provide ID when they vote - I have to provide ID to pick up a parcel from the local sorting office.williamglenn said:
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.kle4 said:
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.Andy_JS said:
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
The act required voters to present a photographic identity card at a polling station before casting a vote, with the Northern Ireland Electoral Identity Card created for voters without an acceptable form of ID.
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That is good. My family live in St Michael's ward nearby.Andy_JS said:Small swing to the Tories in St Chad's / Sunderland.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/16542638409078824960 -
Evening all.
Anything going on?1 -
As with Trump in general, Georgia in particular.kle4 said:
It was advertised about as well as local government could make it, and the media has amplified it quite a bit.Nemtynakht said:
Yes logic fail again for critics - proof will be in the pudding. Were the Tories really trying to do something about voter fraud - or will they abandon it when it affects their own vote falls more than expected. My personal opinion is that it seemed pretty well advertised that you could get a free id through the council, and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect people to provide ID when they vote - I have to provide ID to pick up a parcel from the local sorting office.williamglenn said:
It's pretty obvious they are the people most likely to be confused about ID requirements, which makes a mockery of the voter suppression accusations against the Tories.kle4 said:
I've been saying it the whole time - the young don't vote as much, but the ones who want to probably found a way to do so. Stuck in their ways Tory biddies may not have kept up with the requirements.Andy_JS said:
Others are saying elderly voters are most affected, who are more likely to vote Tory. Not good either way.nico679 said:Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .
Though even if it is the case that the elderly Tory vote was most affected that doesn't necessarily prove it was not an attempt to suppress others - it could just mean the policy backfired.0 -
He thought he was a bit shit.Andy_JS said:
Any reason why you didn't vote for Mark Oaten IYDMMA?Nemtynakht said:For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
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Wytcherywalnut. The votes neatly split between Wytches and nuts.kle4 said:Any particularly good ward names so far? Looking at Cotswolds they have 'Grumbolds Ash with Avening', 'Chedworth and Churn Valley' and 'The Ampneys and Hampton' still to come.
God I love the UK so much.
Perfick 🤗0 -
Lib Dems getting some remarkable results apparently. Good news as they're the most anti Brexit Party. Starmer made a tactical error ignoring the country's antipathy to Brexit.
Sir Ed could turn out to be a Knight to remember1 -
Still awaiting results from Sitting-on-the-Pot.rcs1000 said:Evening all.
Anything going on?1 -
BBC: Con hold Harlow.1
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Conservatives hold Harlow council1
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It might be me, if my Manipulation of Mammaries in Variational Electoral Forecasting catches the eye 😘kle4 said:
I hope his replacement, when it comes, is more beloved than His Majesty replacing Elizabeth II.Anabobazina said:
He always looks exhausted!biggles said:Christ, Curtice already looks knackered. Get him coffee.
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If the Tories lose Windsor in Coronation week, I will be highly amused.0
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Not great results there, though the first seat the LDs won was held by them before in the late 1990s, early 2000s so not a total surprise on current pollskjh said:
With a very big swing. Also a big swing to them in a seat they hold. And another gain. Looks like it is going to be carnage in Brentwood.HYUFD said:LDs gain a seat in Brentwood
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Tactical voting seems to be the big story of the extremely limited results so far2
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What a leader, what a man.
Conservative Campaign Headquarters has just taken delivery of 10 large Domino's pizzas personally paid for by Rishi Sunak.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/16542219946223452160 -
I love the bar-chart on this Guardian page atm. Change in councillors: "+0, +0.2, +0.4" etc, because the changes at the moment are +1 and -1.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2023/may/04/elections-2023-results-live-local-council-england0 -
Halton final result
Lab 17
LD 1
Con 0
Only change is 1 Lab gain from Con (Daresbury, Moore & Sandymoor)1 -
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Harlow is downmarket compared to Brentwood. (No offence to Harlow). Tories hold Harlow, doing badly in Brentwood.1
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Chorley NE is a more straight fight without previous UKIP votes .
Labour will be very happy with that !1 -
With the message stuff your own crust 😕kle4 said:What a leader, what a man.
Conservative Campaign Headquarters has just taken delivery of 10 large Domino's pizzas personally paid for by Rishi Sunak.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/16542219946223452160 -
LD gain from Lab in West Fenham - Newcastle0
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"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
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1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"0 -
LDs loving it in the NE...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)1 -
Blimey! An independent before?Andy_JS said:"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"0 -
You could vote lib dem, green then Oaten for a chance to sink the blueNemtynakht said:For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
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A classic LD from nowhere victory. They do pull them off in some weird places sometimes.carnforth said:
Blimey! An independent before?Andy_JS said:"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"1 -
Sunderland, St Michael's
Conservative - Adele Graham-King1432
Labour - Chris Smith1378
Green - John Appleton 201
Liberal Democrats - Colin Wilson 110
Reform UK - Chris Eynon 273
2022: Con 1832 Lab 1201 Green 231 LD1390 -
Positive news for Rob Halfon nonetheless, who is an excellent MP, Labour had hopes of winning Summers and Kingsmoor where the Tories had a 10% majority yet the Tories held itNeilVW said:
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.HYUFD said:Conservatives hold Harlow council
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Wonder if the Tories will do well in the areas just outside London due to ULEZ0
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Labour clearly underperforming in red wall. This night is starting to look a bit serious for Starmer and Labour.kle4 said:
A classic LD from nowhere victory. They do pull them off in some weird places sometimes.carnforth said:
Blimey! An independent before?Andy_JS said:"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"0 -
Brentwood is interesting in a way, but the Tories are never going to lose it at a general election.1
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Yes Halfon has a 32% majority in Harlow (2019 boundaries). So 16% swing needed for LAB, doesn't look likely on these results, good news, Halfon is indeed an excellent MP.HYUFD said:
Positive news for Rob Halfon nonetheless, who is an excellent MP, Labour had hopes of winning Summers and Kingsmoor where the Tories had a 10% majority yet the Tories held itNeilVW said:
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.HYUFD said:Conservatives hold Harlow council
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Hey, I’m Tory myself. Just giving some contextHYUFD said:
Positive news for Rob Halfon nonetheless, who is an excellent MP, Labour had hopes of winning Summers and Kingsmoor where the Tories had a 10% majority yet the Tories held itNeilVW said:
If I’m reading the BBC results correctly, looks like they only needed to win 1 of the 11 seats up to retain their majority. 3 seats declared, Con hold 1, Lab hold 2.HYUFD said:Conservatives hold Harlow council
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Good evening PB. Another local elections night....1
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Labour up 4% in Brentwood, LDs up 3%, Tories down 6%.Andy_JS said:Brentwood is interesting in a way, but the Tories are never going to lose it at a general election.
So main swing Tory to Labour yet LDs main seat gainers. Brentwood itself has Labour and LD councillors, it is the rural bits in Ongar which give Alex Burghart a large constituency majority yet they are in Epping Forest district council area not Brentwood council like where we now live1 -
It was for one of his policies around the local arts venue - he wants to re-open it and the local action group have a plan - which he supports. I have seen the plan and know about the current building condition and they think they can get volunteers to renovate a 60s theatre complex that has flat roofs, an oil heating system and electrics that are at end of life for less than 250k. I reckon they would be lucky to get it operational again for four times that. So for someone who was a leadership contender I don't like his judgement - either he knows and understands all this and should know it's crap, or he's trying to curry favour with all the luvvies. Pretty niche I know but that is local elections for you!!!Andy_JS said:
Any reason why you didn't vote for Mark Oaten IYDMMA?Nemtynakht said:For anyone interested I didn't vote for Mark Oaten who was standing in my town council ward, but I did vote for a couple of the lib dems that I know and a green.
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You calling West Fenham Newcastle result tactical?Anabobazina said:Tactical voting seems to be the big story of the extremely limited results so far
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Green gain Biddick & All Saints in South Tyneside from Lab
It is a ward Greens didn't win last year2 -
I see another Brentwood ward held by the Tories with a large swing from the LDs!1
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I expect the Lib Dems to have a good night .MoonRabbit said:
Labour clearly underperforming in red wall. This night is starting to look a bit serious for Starmer and Labour.kle4 said:
A classic LD from nowhere victory. They do pull them off in some weird places sometimes.carnforth said:
Blimey! An independent before?Andy_JS said:"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"
Newcastle though isn’t really typical red wall.
It’s the straight fights between the Tories and Labour that are key .1 -
Could be all over the place in the South/Midlandsfelix said:I see another Brentwood ward held by the Tories with a large swing from the LDs!
1 -
Where are you getting this from? Sky News analysis says Labour outperforming national polling (early days caveat)MoonRabbit said:
Labour clearly underperforming in red wall. This night is starting to look a bit serious for Starmer and Labour.kle4 said:
A classic LD from nowhere victory. They do pull them off in some weird places sometimes.carnforth said:
Blimey! An independent before?Andy_JS said:"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"0 -
As I said down thread, this is not Labour losing voters in large chunks to the greens, but Starmer failing to get Labour voters to the polls.AndreaParma_82 said:Green gain Biddick & All Saints in South Tyneside from Lab
It is a ward Greens didn't win last year1 -
That reminds me of Margot Asquith correcting Jean Harlow's pronunciation of "Margot": "The t is silent, as in Harlow."Andy_JS said:Harlow is downmarket compared to Brentwood. (No offence to Harlow).
3 -
The experts say Labour needs a vote share lead of 10% to be on course for victory.
Labour says it's 8%.
Murphy's Law therefore forecasts the result will be 9%.1 -
Just a reminder: Gerrymandering is not the same as "vote supression". The Conservatives are being accused of using voter ID to make it harder for some opponents to vote -- how accurately I do not know. That, if true, would be vote supression, not gerrymandering.
In gerrymandering the ruling group (usually a party) draws district lines so as to maximize their chances of controlling a legislature. Typically they do this by concentrating the other party's voters in a few districts, while giving their own party safe majorities in the other districts. This can produce truly strange looking districts.
Some states now use independent commissions to prevent gerrymandering, with mixed success.
Two important things to know: Gerrymandering was practiced more by Democrats than Republicans after the New Deal, because they controlled more legislatures. That began to change after the 1994 and 2010 elections, when Clinton and Obama did so much to strengthen the Republican Party. (I could be wrong, but I suspect that the Guardian, for example, had little to say about gerrymandering when it was mostly practiced by American politicians they liked.)
Second, because Democratic voters tend to be heavily concentrated in large cities, a "fair" districting algorithm, which ignored partisanship, might still give Republicans an advantage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States1 -
By looking at the red wall results. They lost two of their red wall seats whilst you were typing.Anabobazina said:
Where are you getting this from? Sky News analysis says Labour outperforming national polling (early days caveat)MoonRabbit said:
Labour clearly underperforming in red wall. This night is starting to look a bit serious for Starmer and Labour.kle4 said:
A classic LD from nowhere victory. They do pull them off in some weird places sometimes.carnforth said:
Blimey! An independent before?Andy_JS said:"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1m
West Fenham (Newcastle upon Tyne) council election result:
LDEM: 45.3% (+39.6)
LAB: 33.3% (-10.8)
CON: 12.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 8.9% (-2.3)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Turnout: 36.1% (+3.7)"1
