How will this map and table change tonight and tomorrow? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Sunderland St Anns
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 158
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0
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Not much Con to Lab swing there either, in the red wall this time. 🤔AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland St Anns
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 1580 -
Very good point. “Here is some data - objectively summarise it in English”.williamglenn said:
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.biggles said:
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.Westie said:
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
Mary Shelley was right.
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Another annoyingly hard to interpret result.AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland St Anns
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 1580 -
for whatever reason, I forgot Sunderland voted in 2022 tooAndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland St Anns
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 158
2022 Lab 1061 Con 840 Greens 2731 -
But when there’s nearly 30% of UKIP votes up for grabs it’s pretty hard to interpret any Con-Lab swing. You’d expect most kippers to go Tory but it’s impossible to say.MoonRabbit said:
Not much Con to Lab swing there either, in the red wall this time. 🤔AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland St Anns
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 1581 -
I'm not criticising the poor woman, but the way the headline is phrased it could be taken of a criticism that the album was not counted as acceptable ID, rather than that the need to bring ID was the problem - after all, the government could respond by saying more forms of ID, or an album, would now count, but that wouldn't address the main problem.Andy_JS said:
Maybe that was all she had. Photo ID isn't a thing for a lot of older, poorer people.biggles said:
I yield to no one in my disgust about this policy, but the idea of that amuses me. How did she think the photo album would help?Andy_JS said:Sky News: elderly woman in Stoke-on-Trent arrived at the polling station with some family photo albums to prove her identity. Wasn't successful (if I understood correctly).
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2021 was a disaster for Lab.biggles said:
Sir Keir Starmer please explain.Northern_Al said:
Possible a bit more for Labour than the others, given that they doubled their 2021 share of the vote?Andy_JS said:
There's something for everyone in that result.carnforth said:Chester-le-Street East (County Durham) council by-election result:
LAB: 59.8% (+28.9)
CON: 36.6% (-4.9)
LDEM: 3.6% (-1.4)
No GRN (-22.6) as prev.
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Sorry, am I doing this right?
SKS lost 350 Councillors compared to "its worst ever leader"0 -
Perhaps a good idea if the Electoral Commission asks each Voting Authority of how many Voting Authority Certicates they issued - I know two people who obtained one - did the people turned away not know of the requirement?Andy_JS said:
Maybe that was all she had. Photo ID isn't a thing for a lot of older, poorer people.biggles said:
I yield to no one in my disgust about this policy, but the idea of that amuses me. How did she think the photo album would help?Andy_JS said:Sky News: elderly woman in Stoke-on-Trent arrived at the polling station with some family photo albums to prove her identity. Wasn't successful (if I understood correctly).
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Having just checked, that’s not a reincarnation of the former Lib Dem minister Simon Hughes.AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland St Anns
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 158
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On of the things that make Great British Byelections great.kle4 said:
Hell yes we do. Like AndyJS I am surprised to find out that is not the way it is typically done.Jim_Miller said:Do you still announce the results with those little ceremonies? An election officer comes out on a little stage, the candidates line up with their identifying rosettes, as if they were school students wondering who will get the reward, the results are read, and the winner congratulated.
I loved those ceremonies because of the cool confidence in your institutions they show -- so I hope you are still doing them. (Coaches in the US sometimes tell their players that they should not make a big fuss after they score, saying something like this: "Act like you've done it before, and expect to do it again.")
(These days I just have broadcast TV, and none of the local sub-channels include such things.)0 -
Yes maybe I’m wrong. But 700 votes for Tories shows Brexit and Tory love maybe not fading away in Red Wall as quickly as psephologists and pollsters had been predicting for us tonight.TimS said:
But when there’s nearly 30% of UKIP votes up for grabs it’s pretty hard to interpret any Con-Lab swing. You’d expect most kippers to go Tory but it’s impossible to say.MoonRabbit said:
Not much Con to Lab swing there either, in the red wall this time. 🤔AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland St Anns
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 1581 -
Leon said:
Who would you go to a bar and fart, when you could have a nice strawberry citrus mojito? Or a turmeric-flavoured Old Fashioned?viewcode said:
I know, and believe me I sympathise, but it's the only one we got. Unlike SOME PEOPLE who swan about the world farting in bars, we aren't going anywhere so it's us who have to fix it. Shit doesn't clean itself up.AugustusCarp2 said:I despair of the country I am living in, and I don't think I like many of the people living in it.
So. Have a sit down, remind yourself you're a decent person who did good today, and relax for a bit. Cake is nice I find.
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These Sunderland results aren't very helpful because UKIP has disappeared and their large vote from previously is going where you'd expect it to, to all the other parties.0
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biggles said:
What idiot would mess with an Old Fashioned or a Mojito? Name and shame them.Leon said:
Who would you go to a bar and fart, when you could have a nice strawberry citrus mojito? Or a turmeric-flavoured Old Fashioned?viewcode said:
I know, and believe me I sympathise, but it's the only one we got. Unlike SOME PEOPLE who swan about the world farting in bars, we aren't going anywhere so it's us who have to fix it. Shit doesn't clean itself up.AugustusCarp2 said:I despair of the country I am living in, and I don't think I like many of the people living in it.
So. Have a sit down, remind yourself you're a decent person who did good today, and relax for a bit. Cake is nice I find.
“The 14th best bar in the world”, if we are to trust this dubious article
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-see-bangkok-without-the-crowds/0 -
Labour to sweep 100% of seats, clearly.
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"The first transport is away! The first transport is away!"carnforth said:Chester-le-Street East (County Durham) council by-election result:
LAB: 59.8% (+28.9)
CON: 36.6% (-4.9)
LDEM: 3.6% (-1.4)
No GRN (-22.6) as prev.
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
[Rebel Alliance troops cheer]1 -
I wish people who could write like this came to PB.Leon said:biggles said:
What idiot would mess with an Old Fashioned or a Mojito? Name and shame them.Leon said:
Who would you go to a bar and fart, when you could have a nice strawberry citrus mojito? Or a turmeric-flavoured Old Fashioned?viewcode said:
I know, and believe me I sympathise, but it's the only one we got. Unlike SOME PEOPLE who swan about the world farting in bars, we aren't going anywhere so it's us who have to fix it. Shit doesn't clean itself up.AugustusCarp2 said:I despair of the country I am living in, and I don't think I like many of the people living in it.
So. Have a sit down, remind yourself you're a decent person who did good today, and relax for a bit. Cake is nice I find.
“The 14th best bar in the world”, if we are to trust this dubious article
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-see-bangkok-without-the-crowds/
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I wouldn't trust AI with anything that requires factual accuracy.biggles said:
Very good point. “Here is some data - objectively summarise it in English”.williamglenn said:
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.biggles said:
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.Westie said:
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
Mary Shelley was right.1 -
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.*
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Am I weird?1 -
Sunderland -Doxford
Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788
Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719
Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301
Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146
Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 1150 -
LD take control of Windsor from Tories according to winning here spinner1
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Any indication yet of whether overall turnout is up or down relative to most recent comparable elections?0
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No sign of conservative collapse in the Sunderland seats. But perhaps Sunderland Tories are a hardy bunch.1
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This is a link to a map which is showing the ward by ward results - only a few in Sunderland area so far.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results
Click on the ward and you get the breakdown/change
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Labour vote down. 🤔AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland -Doxford
Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788
Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719
Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301
Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146
Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 1151 -
I understand you can do a lot better than ChatGPT by connecting one of these large language models (LLMs) to a specific knowledge base.Foxy said:
I wouldn't trust AI with anything that requires factual accuracy.biggles said:
Very good point. “Here is some data - objectively summarise it in English”.williamglenn said:
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.biggles said:
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.Westie said:
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
Mary Shelley was right.
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You should watch 'Until The End of the World'. Quite remarkable how it's playing out.Eabhal said:
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.*
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Am I weird?0 -
8% swing from Lab to LD in Sunderland / Doxford.1
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There’s science on this. I am the opposite to you but neither of us is unusual. However it means we struggle to understand how each other “picture” anything.Eabhal said:
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.*
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Am I weird?
1 -
First SKS please explain!!AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland -Doxford
Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788
Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719
Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301
Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146
Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Don't worry I am off to bed now so no more tonight.
FWIW I think Tories will be 8 to 9 points behind on projected national share1 -
There is variation in what people can picture, with aphantasia at one end of the spectrum: see this nice podcast, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001gwysEabhal said:
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.*
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Am I weird?1 -
Surprised an LD like you isn't cheered that the LD majority is now bigger than the number of votes for the nearest rival.MoonRabbit said:
Labour vote down.AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland -Doxford
Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788
Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719
Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301
Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146
Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.2 -
I am moving to the position where I would. Just not crap GPT. If anything I’m happier for it to stay in lane and summarise a given set of data rather than pretend to use glorified auto-correct to do more, as with Crap GPT.Foxy said:
I wouldn't trust AI with anything that requires factual accuracy.biggles said:
Very good point. “Here is some data - objectively summarise it in English”.williamglenn said:
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.biggles said:
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.Westie said:
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
Mary Shelley was right.
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In recent years my vague recollection is the swift declaring northern seats have been better than expected for the Tories (if still not good), but when the sleepy shires start declaring in the morning it all goes to hell.carnforth said:No sign of conservative collapse in the Sunderland seats. But perhaps Sunderland Tories are a hardy bunch.
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The psephologists and MRP said Labour would have a great night in Red Wall this time, with mixed results when the South came in. Tory vote in red wall already defying polling and forecasts it seems.carnforth said:No sign of conservative collapse in the Sunderland seats. But perhaps Sunderland Tories are a hardy bunch.
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Very nice. The New Statesman do some good work on local stuff. I particularly like it showing the winners in previous years, not just change from last election.londonpubman said:This is a link to a map which is showing the ward by ward results - only a few in Sunderland area so far.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results
Click on the ward and you get the breakdown/change1 -
Yes, some promising early evidence of tactical anti-Tory voting. Here's hoping it's widespread. If they can do it in Sunderland, then anything's possible.Foxy said:
Surprised an LD like you isn't cheered that the LD majority is now bigger than the number of votes for there nearest rival.MoonRabbit said:
Labour vote down.AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland -Doxford
Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788
Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719
Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301
Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146
Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.0 -
Oddly enough, I work in that field and GPT4 does a pretty good job when asked "Rewrite the following so that it is clear to " depending what you're after.williamglenn said:
The task of writing scientific articles like that is ideally suited to AI.biggles said:
As ever, the Nature piece is impenetrable bullshit, so it’s hard to form a view. Write scientific papers in English people!!! The confusing bit is rarely the science, it’s that they can’t write for toffee.Westie said:
Tillium's law: surveillance leads to control.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
Mary Shelley was right.0 -
Well....the Greens stood down to let the LibDems have a free run.Andy_JS said:
There's something for everyone in that result.carnforth said:Chester-le-Street East (County Durham) council by-election result:
LAB: 59.8% (+28.9)
CON: 36.6% (-4.9)
LDEM: 3.6% (-1.4)
No GRN (-22.6) as prev.
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Not only did the LibDems pick up NONE of that previous Green 22.6%, their vote actually went down, from 5% to 3.6%.
Hard to see the cheer for the LibDems there....2 -
You are correct, that is my clear recollection from last year - a blue mirage creating the Labour struggles in red wall headlines, that stayed up all day despite the Tory woes Friday afternoon.kle4 said:
In recent years my vague recollection is the swift declaring northern seats have been better than expected for the Tories (if still not good), but when the sleepy shires start declaring in the morning it all goes to hell.carnforth said:No sign of conservative collapse in the Sunderland seats. But perhaps Sunderland Tories are a hardy bunch.
But we were assured by forcasts it would be different this time, but Tory’s not struggling in Red Wall as yet.0 -
South Tyneside turnouts
2023: https://portal.southtyneside.info/elections/LocalGovernment.aspx?id=40&_gl=1*c5tbub*_ga*MjExMjkzNjk5MC4xNjgzMjM5ODA5*_ga_DNGKJ1HWT8*MTY4MzIzOTgwOS4xLjAuMTY4MzIzOTgwOS42MC4wLjA.&_ga=2.116016646.1247965159.1683239809-2112936990.1683239809
2022: https://portal.southtyneside.info/elections/LocalGovernment.aspx?id=392 -
Laura Kuenssberg is hosting the BBC's election night coverage. I think this might be the first time a woman has done so.0
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Castle (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 65.0% (+16.6)
CON: 13.6% (+2.6)
REF: 10.3% (+10.3)
LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 23.4% (-3.5)
No UKIP (-40.7) as prev
Silksworth (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 56.2% (+18.6)
CON: 19.0% (-0.8)
GRN: 13.3% (+3.7)
REF: 8.4% (+8.4)
LDEM: 3.0% (+3.0)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 32.8% (-3.2)
No UKIP (-28.3) as prev.
Looks a pretty solid Lab swing to me.1 -
Mostly a little down, but not by much and not unusual to see.AndreaParma_82 said:South Tyneside turnouts
2023: https://portal.southtyneside.info/elections/LocalGovernment.aspx?id=40&_gl=1*c5tbub*_ga*MjExMjkzNjk5MC4xNjgzMjM5ODA5*_ga_DNGKJ1HWT8*MTY4MzIzOTgwOS4xLjAuMTY4MzIzOTgwOS42MC4wLjA.&_ga=2.116016646.1247965159.1683239809-2112936990.1683239809
2022: https://portal.southtyneside.info/elections/LocalGovernment.aspx?id=391 -
Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651
Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780
Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122
Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210
Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward0 -
Tamworth will be interesting. It's always voted Labour when they've won a general election, (which is to say 2005, 2001, 1997, Oct 1974, 1966, 1964, 1950, 1945).0
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Very useful, thank youlondonpubman said:This is a link to a map which is showing the ward by ward results - only a few in Sunderland area so far.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results
Click on the ward and you get the breakdown/change0 -
Republic is less than 50% in Canada and Australia and tied with retaining the monarchy in New Zealand.Westie said:
It's all in how you phrase the question, but the following seems clear (from p.62 of the Ashcroft poll):HYUFD said:
Of the other Commonwealth Realms polled, only the Bahamas and Solomon Islands have majority support for a RepublicHYUFD said:
There won't for starters because the Canadian PM Trudeau and Conservative leader of the Opposition Poilievre back keeping the monarchy, only the minor NDP and BQ want a republicCasino_Royale said:
There is a Wokery infection afflicting Canada at the moment and depressing support for the monarchy.Richard_Tyndall said:
As far as Australia is concerned it appears this is old news as Sky are pushing a poll this evening that shows that support for a Republic has dropped and there is now 60% support for contiuing with the MonarchyWestie said:The Times: "Almost half of countries where Charles is King support becoming a republic", including Australia, Canada, and Jamaica.
With the coronation, he's banging nails into his own coffin. It's excruciating as well as hilarious. Nobody told him to have a coronation. He doesn't have to have one if he doesn't want one. He could easily go about in a business suit or scruff it up like Bill Gates. But no, he demands full-scale anointment with oil from Jerusalem. He demands a seat in front of the Cosmati pavement getting an archbishop put a diamond-studded hat on his head. He thinks people care what he thinks about religion too. Every religion. Because they all want a king. Right. Right? The guy is f***ing gaga.
I'll give it a year, tops.
I bet the insiders are already discussing how to save the monarchy from him.
https://archive.is/IBghW
But I'm very confident they don't want to be another republic just like America. They do want to work their current issues through and develop a more Canadian identity to their monarchy/governor-general though.
KCIII needs to respond to that.
"If there were a referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?"
Options: "For my country to remain a constitutional monarchy with King Charles as head of state", "For my country to become a republic", and DK/WV.
Republic > keep the monarchy in Canada, Australia, Jamaica, Bahamas, Solomon Is, Northern Ireland, and Antigua and Barbuda.
So he's 5-2 down in the 7 sovereign countries other than Britain that have populations > 400,000, the monarchist two being NZ and Papua New Guinea.
Lose Canada, Australia, and Jamaica, and the republicans in the other 11 will have a lot of traction for saying that keeping the British king as head of state makes sovereignty a sham.
There is zero chance of a monarchy referendum in Canada as both the governing Liberals and opposition Conservatives back retaining the monarchy. If Australia fails to vote for the indigenous voice referendum by a big majority later this year as some polls suggest even pro Republic Australian Labor PM Albanese may not risk another referendum on it. Most of the Caribbean already are now Republics so Jamaica going the same way makes little difference.0 -
Labour seems to be picking up most of the UKIP vote in Sunderland.Foxy said:Castle (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 65.0% (+16.6)
CON: 13.6% (+2.6)
REF: 10.3% (+10.3)
LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 23.4% (-3.5)
No UKIP (-40.7) as prev
Silksworth (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 56.2% (+18.6)
CON: 19.0% (-0.8)
GRN: 13.3% (+3.7)
REF: 8.4% (+8.4)
LDEM: 3.0% (+3.0)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 32.8% (-3.2)
No UKIP (-28.3) as prev.
Looks a pretty solid Lab swing to me.
I don't know whether to be pleased or horrified.
I'll sleep on it.1 -
No. I’m just calling it straight like a psephologist not a spinner. The Labour vote didn’t stand still or advance just a little bit, as a good night would surely have produced, it went backwards. Could be tactical like you said, but could also be sign of Labour voter apathy in the Red Wall today.Foxy said:
Surprised an LD like you isn't cheered that the LD majority is now bigger than the number of votes for the nearest rival.MoonRabbit said:
Labour vote down.AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland -Doxford
Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788
Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719
Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301
Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146
Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.0 -
We don't know that, it could be big churn, with CON to LAB, and UKIP to CON etc.Northern_Al said:
Labour seems to be picking up most of the UKIP vote in Sunderland.Foxy said:Castle (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 65.0% (+16.6)
CON: 13.6% (+2.6)
REF: 10.3% (+10.3)
LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 23.4% (-3.5)
No UKIP (-40.7) as prev
Silksworth (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 56.2% (+18.6)
CON: 19.0% (-0.8)
GRN: 13.3% (+3.7)
REF: 8.4% (+8.4)
LDEM: 3.0% (+3.0)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 32.8% (-3.2)
No UKIP (-28.3) as prev.
Looks a pretty solid Lab swing to me.
I don't know whether to be pleased or horrified.
I'll sleep on it.
It does seem possible though that Starmer is not anathema to Brexit voters, despite his history.0 -
Not particularly. The capacity to mentally visualise stuff apparently varies massively between individuals.Eabhal said:
Hang on - can people really "see" stuff like that in their mind? I can't even imagine or draw my girlfriend's face (I recognise her when I see her). I have a vague idea - two eyes, a nose, big mole on her cheek. Not much more than that.Nigelb said:WTF: Mind reading is here.*
Researchers invented a new #AI method to convert brain signals into video. See the results for yourself
Published in Nature yesterday: https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06031-6
What are the implications? Is this the biggest paper of 2023?
https://twitter.com/itsandrewgao/status/1654233895255298048
* Not really, but this is on the way to a proof of concept.
Am I weird?
What do you 'see' when you're actually looking at her ?0 -
Could be its roundabouts, ukip to Tory, Tory to Labour. Which is what I think Foxy tried to say, but made a mess of it.Northern_Al said:
Labour seems to be picking up most of the UKIP vote in Sunderland.Foxy said:Castle (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 65.0% (+16.6)
CON: 13.6% (+2.6)
REF: 10.3% (+10.3)
LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 23.4% (-3.5)
No UKIP (-40.7) as prev
Silksworth (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 56.2% (+18.6)
CON: 19.0% (-0.8)
GRN: 13.3% (+3.7)
REF: 8.4% (+8.4)
LDEM: 3.0% (+3.0)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 32.8% (-3.2)
No UKIP (-28.3) as prev.
Looks a pretty solid Lab swing to me.
I don't know whether to be pleased or horrified.
I'll sleep on it.0 -
Halton
Halton Castle
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ Lab 66.6 + 14.2
⬤ Grn 12.1 + 12.1
⬤ Ind 10.6 - 7.7
⬤ Con 6.8 - 11.2
⬤ LDem 4.0 - 7.3
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results0 -
I'm taking it for granted the Tories will do horribly versus the LDs in the Blue Wall. The Red Wall in the Midlands will be more interesting.2
-
Another few results up on Britain elects, with LAB vote up 15-20% across them all.MoonRabbit said:
No. I’m just calling it straight like a psephologist not a spinner. The Labour vote didn’t stand still or advance just a little bit, as a good night would surely have produced, it went backwards. Could be tactical like you said, but could also be sign of Labour voter apathy in the Red Wall today.Foxy said:
Surprised an LD like you isn't cheered that the LD majority is now bigger than the number of votes for the nearest rival.MoonRabbit said:
Labour vote down.AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland -Doxford
Liberal Democrats - Heather Fagan 1788
Labour Co-op - Andrew John Rowntree 719
Conservative - John Scott Wiper 301
Reform UK- Dawn Hurst 146
Green - Auburn Langley 67
2022 LD 1511 Lab 851 Con 565 Green 115
Lab up in a Sunderland Lab targeted ward, LD up in their ward looks like an effective tactical vote in each.
0 -
Change v 2021viewcode said:Halton
Halton Castle
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ Lab 66.6 + 14.2
⬤ Grn 12.1 + 12.1
⬤ Ind 10.6 - 7.7
⬤ Con 6.8 - 11.2
⬤ LDem 4.0 - 7.3
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results0 -
We need Con held battles especially if small ukip to squeezeviewcode said:
Very useful, thank youlondonpubman said:This is a link to a map which is showing the ward by ward results - only a few in Sunderland area so far.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results
Click on the ward and you get the breakdown/change0 -
[deleted]
0 -
Sunderland
Doxford
PARTY PCT. CHG.
⬤ LDem 59.2 + 16.5
⬤ Lab 23.8 + 0.5
⬤ Con 10.0 - 2.6
⬤ Ref 4.8 + 4.8
⬤ Grn 2.2 - 2.6
+/- with 2019
Previous winners (by year)
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/05/britain-elects-results0 -
Oh thank God, have Jeremy Vine and his visuals been binned?!1
-
The LDs were on 85% before? I think that result needs to be re-checked by Britain Elects.londonpubman said:
Some variation from the theme...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
Chesterton (Cotswold) council election result:
LDEM: 63.9% (-21.6)
CON: 24.9% (+10.4)
GRN: 11.2% (+11.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.2 -
Another huge 800 red wall Tory vote. If you were expecting the forecast Tory collapse that is.AndreaParma_82 said:Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651
Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780
Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122
Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210
Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward0 -
Some variation from the theme...
Chesterton (Cotswold) council election result:
LDEM: 63.9% (-15.8)
CON: 24.9% (+4.6)
GRN: 11.2% (+11.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.0 -
Christ, Curtice already looks knackered. Get him coffee.0
-
John Curtis: turnout down so far.0
-
I think Labour will be pleased to win St Anne's in Sunderland0
-
The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?0
-
I have a) respect for - and b) beef with Laura k.Andy_JS said:Laura Kuenssberg is hosting the BBC's election night coverage. I think this might be the first time a woman has done so.
2017 election. It was her job to have a decent idea of what Theresa May was thinking.
The lecturn was placed outside number 10. She was openly musing, live on air, that surely, the PM couldn’t be about to announce an election?
Theresa May then announced an election.
I lost a small-to-moderate amount of money because I somewhat trusted that she had a decent grasp of the PM’s thinking/options.
She didn’t.
It was her job. She got played by TM.
I’d posted on here, prior, that TM clearly didn’t have a mandate and an election was a possibility. I overrode my own judgment, partly due to Laura K’s output.1 -
Yes it has been changed - I have now posted the revised version!Andy_JS said:
The LDs were on 85% before? I think that result needs to be re-checked by Britain Elects.londonpubman said:
Some variation from the theme...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
Chesterton (Cotswold) council election result:
LDEM: 63.9% (-21.6)
CON: 24.9% (+10.4)
GRN: 11.2% (+11.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.1 -
Isn't that where much of it came from? Gammons going back home to Labour....Northern_Al said:
Labour seems to be picking up most of the UKIP vote in Sunderland.Foxy said:Castle (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 65.0% (+16.6)
CON: 13.6% (+2.6)
REF: 10.3% (+10.3)
LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 23.4% (-3.5)
No UKIP (-40.7) as prev
Silksworth (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 56.2% (+18.6)
CON: 19.0% (-0.8)
GRN: 13.3% (+3.7)
REF: 8.4% (+8.4)
LDEM: 3.0% (+3.0)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 32.8% (-3.2)
No UKIP (-28.3) as prev.
Looks a pretty solid Lab swing to me.
I don't know whether to be pleased or horrified.
I'll sleep on it.0 -
It’s difficult trying to extrapolate how well or badly the Tories might do from areas that had high previous UKIP totals .1
-
Thanks.londonpubman said:
Yes it has been changed - I have now posted the revised version!Andy_JS said:
The LDs were on 85% before? I think that result needs to be re-checked by Britain Elects.londonpubman said:
Some variation from the theme...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
Chesterton (Cotswold) council election result:
LDEM: 63.9% (-21.6)
CON: 24.9% (+10.4)
GRN: 11.2% (+11.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.0 -
What appears to be happening in Sunderland is that UKIP isn't standing this time, some votes are going to REF but lots to LAB (and a few to CON)MoonRabbit said:
Another huge 800 red wall Tory vote. If you were expecting the forecast Tory collapse that is.AndreaParma_82 said:Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651
Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780
Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122
Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210
Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward0 -
Seat changes so far:
Lab +2
UKIP -2
No change for other parties.1 -
I make it around 79.7%?Andy_JS said:
The LDs were on 85% before? I think that result needs to be re-checked by Britain Elects.londonpubman said:
Some variation from the theme...
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
Chesterton (Cotswold) council election result:
LDEM: 63.9% (-21.6)
CON: 24.9% (+10.4)
GRN: 11.2% (+11.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Very small wards it seems.1 -
Is this a surprise to anyone? I always assumed that in 2019 and earlier, seats were won for the Tories because their mate Nige took Labour votes that never would have gone blue.MarqueeMark said:
Isn't that where much of it came from? Gammons going back home to Labour....Northern_Al said:
Labour seems to be picking up most of the UKIP vote in Sunderland.Foxy said:Castle (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 65.0% (+16.6)
CON: 13.6% (+2.6)
REF: 10.3% (+10.3)
LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 23.4% (-3.5)
No UKIP (-40.7) as prev
Silksworth (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 56.2% (+18.6)
CON: 19.0% (-0.8)
GRN: 13.3% (+3.7)
REF: 8.4% (+8.4)
LDEM: 3.0% (+3.0)
Labour HOLD.
Turnout: 32.8% (-3.2)
No UKIP (-28.3) as prev.
Looks a pretty solid Lab swing to me.
I don't know whether to be pleased or horrified.
I'll sleep on it.
2 -
Sunderland - Barnes
Labour Co-op- Abdul Bakkar Haque 1272
Conservative - Kevin Leonard 1130
Reform UK - Alan Douglas Bilton 296
Liberal Democrats - Tim Ellis-Dale 248
Green - Mark Tyers 212
Lab gain.
Con won last year with 9% majority.1 -
I predicted 814.Roger said:The Tories predicted to lose 800 seats. Is that good or bad. Who knows?
That would be poor but better than expectations, and a PNE only a bit down on last time.
Who made that prediction? Is it uniform swing not accounting for tactical voting?0 -
Labour getting the Brexit voters back. What do Labour members in London think of that?londonpubman said:
What appears to be happening in Sunderland is that UKIP isn't standing this time, some votes are going to REF but lots to LAB (and a few to CON)MoonRabbit said:
Another huge 800 red wall Tory vote. If you were expecting the forecast Tory collapse that is.AndreaParma_82 said:Washington East election results 2023 - Labour hold
Labour Co-op - Fiona Miller 1651
Conservative - Hiliary Johnson 780
Liberal Democrats - Richard Bond 122
Reform UK - Lynda Alexander 210
Green - Michal Chantokowski 166
2022: Lab 1682 Con 1223 Green 239
Libdem held easily Pallion ward0 -
Need a bit more than that, John. In my county turnout was down in every single ward in 2013, and up in almost all in 2017 for example, so clear trends, but it was not massive in either case. You'd need a drop of more than a few percent on average to assume a problem.Andy_JS said:John Curtis: turnout down so far.
0 -
Turnout down nearly everywhere . Shockingly so in some areas . Looks like a combination of apathy and the Tories attempts to stop people voting who might not vote for them .1
-
Swing 10% LD to Con there in LD led Cotswold, as I said expect a good night for Labour overall as the early Sunderland and Halton results suggest but a more mixed night for the LDslondonpubman said:Some variation from the theme...
Chesterton (Cotswold) council election result:
LDEM: 63.9% (-15.8)
CON: 24.9% (+4.6)
GRN: 11.2% (+11.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.0 -
This turnout down I think is hurting Labour most. Starmer not inspired people to the polling booth.Andy_JS said:John Curtis: turnout down so far.
0 -
LD MP Sarah Olney describing the situation I was talking about earlier, regarding maiden and married names for women voters.0
-
Early signs that Labour has recovered in the Red Wall0
-
Sunderland
Fulwell - Lib Dem Gain from Con (already won by LDs last year)
Liberal Democrats - Peter Walton 1879
Conservative - David Sinclair 1036
Labour - Andy Stafford 718
Reform UK - Lisa Hilton126
Green - Liam Dufferwiel 108
Monster Raving Loony - Jumping Jack Flash 40
St Peter's - Con hold
Conservative - Josh McKeith 1348
Labour Co-op - David Newey 1160
Liberal Democrats - John Lennox 254
Green - Rachel Featherstone 193
Reform UK - Keith Samme 1522 -
Plus Tory efforts to keep them away from the polling booth?MoonRabbit said:
This turnout down I think is hurting Labour most. Starmer not inspired people to the polling booth.Andy_JS said:John Curtis: turnout down so far.
2 -
Depending on what happened last time, and the history in the seat, that could be disappointing for the Cons.londonpubman said:Some variation from the theme...
Chesterton (Cotswold) council election result:
LDEM: 63.9% (-15.8)
CON: 24.9% (+4.6)
GRN: 11.2% (+11.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.0 -
The Tories briefly lost a seat according to the BBC, but they're back to zero losses again. Not sure what happened. Oh, it's back again.0
-
It's a local election. Taking only my own region as a guide turnout in only a handful of wards reaches 50%, and in many places is in the low to mid 20s, with the average probably being more like 33%.MoonRabbit said:
This turnout down I think is hurting Labour most. Starmer not inspired people to the polling booth.Andy_JS said:John Curtis: turnout down so far.
Inspiring against a backdrop of local apathy is not easy.1 -
Great to have you back Andrea!AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland St Anns
Labour Co-op - Catherine Hunter 981 votes
Conservative - Pam Mann 694 votes
Liberal Democrats - Elaine Rumfitt 216 votes
Green - Simon Hughes 131 votes
Lab gain
2021: Con 911 Lab 908 UKIP 190 LD 1585
