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This looks worrying for Number 10 and the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,521
    Leon said:

    I agree. These numbers are starkly in favour of Shit, Brexit is crap, let’s go back.

    I personally know several Brexit voters who regret their vote

    I suspect a lot of if it just because Brexit unfortunately collided with a plague and then a massive war so it’s all turned out worse, and felt worse, than it might have done otherwise, nonetheless the numbers are the numbers and there SHOULD be a serious party campaigning for a new referendum and Rejoin, in the next GE, as it is clearly the wish of millions of people

    I can’t for the life of me understand why the Lib Dems aren’t seizing this position and making it their territory. What is the point of them otherwise?

    I get why Starmer can’t quite be so courageous but if Labour at some point take up this stance then good luck to them

    We Brexited, democratically, and if the British people decide to reverse that in another vote, so be it. Fair enough. That’s what makes us different from the EU (and to my mind democratically superior) - WE DO NOT IGNORE OR OVERRULE REFERENDUMS
    It doesn't matter now. It's not in the gift of any British government to reverse Brexit. Why would Starmer, or any other PM, wish to spend years negotiating terms of accession with the EU, when a referendum on rejoining might well be lost, and when the EU wouldn't want a lukewarm member anyway?

    The moving hand hath writ.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    Ghedebrav said:

    Speaking of things from the past we really shouldn't return to, looks like Leeds are about to appoint Sam Allardyce.

    If Big Sam is the answer, you are asking the wrong question.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited May 2023
    Leon said:

    No, we voted on what we were offered. Leave or Remain, with no details. Neither side wanted details because Remain would have had to spell out exactly how we avoided further integration and Leave would have split between Hard Brexiteers and EFTA types


    The whole referendum was a shoddy mess for which Cameron must take much of the blame, He did his shitty non-renegotiation, he decided to call the referendum in the slapdash way he did, he decided there would be no 2nd referendum of what kind of Brecit we wanted if it was Leave, and so on and so forth. The essay crisis prime minister produced a D grade essay. That will be Cameron’s terrible epitaph, he totally fucked up the one big job he had

    But we could only vote on what the government offered us. Leave or Remain. And thus we voted

    Any future government is now free to finesse the deal, of course, and I imagine that will be possible. The EU has it seems finally moved on from its Brexit Britain Must Be Punished attitude (which was understandable from an EU point of view, albeit spiteful and vindictive)
    As you know, I don't agree with this. Before Grieve and others intervened on behalf of parliament, so often villified by leavers, we were quite possibly heading from something generally not advertised by Vote Leave ( leaving the single market ) , to something completely unrecognisable ( leaving with no deal ) , all to hold the Tory party together.

    The country was offered a cake-and-eat it exit with close economic ties still remaining, and we got what suited the Tory Party to stay together, just short of no deal, even after expelling all its moderates.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    Thank you for illustrating my point.

    Your point being that Remainers "Project Fear" said we be out of the single market, and Leavers said we would not.

    Leavers lied.

    Good point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    kinabalu said:

    I'm saying there's no need to overthink it. Party wins a GE promising an In/Out referendum. Same as last time. The only difference is it's the insurgent IN that triggers the EU negotiation process rather than the status quo of OUT. Instead of an exit deal the mandate is to agree an entry deal. This will happen in the medium term and IN will win comfortably as the country collectively screws its head back on.
    Issue one in the campaign: is a vote to rejoin a mandate to join the Euro?

    Rejoin would have to say "no" in order to avoid holing their campaign below the waterline, but what if the EU doesn't recreate our opt-outs?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    kinabalu said:

    Another Referendum is all it takes.

    "Should the United Kingdom remain in no man's land or leave to join every other European country in the European Union?

    Tick one box only:

    Leave
    Remain

    The government will implement whatever the majority decide."
    No - the conditions would need to be said too - otherwise when we lose the pound, are forced into the Euro, lose our central bank, pay lots more into the EU budget, have no rebate etc, then the whole shitshow starts again.

    Make an honest case of the pros (trade, jobs for those who wish to work in Europe, boost to GDP etc) vs cost (being a net contributer to the budget, no check on Europeans moving to the UK). Otherwise it sets up the next 20 years of arguments.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Stop that. 😠 You know you will end up in the spam bin again.

    I’m beginning to think you can’t help yourself.



    Step forward.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    Most voters did not vote to leave the EU. Not voting is not the same as voting to leave the EU. The majority of voters did not vote to leave the EU, just a majority of the ones who did vote.
    But that's just sophistry. If the referendum had also had a rider on turnout, then fair enough, but it didn't.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    Scott_xP said:

    Your point being that Remainers "Project Fear" said we be out of the single market, and Leavers said we would not.

    Leavers lied.

    Good point.
    You're not making any attempt to engage with reality.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,793
    Who paid for Ron DeSantis trip overseas? No one will say.
    Florida lawmakers are also poised to pass a bill that would shield DeSantis’ travel records associated with taxpayer paid travel from scrutiny
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/02/don-desantis-overseas-trip-00094833
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    You're not making any attempt to engage with reality.

    LOL
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    edited May 2023
    boulay said:

    For some bizarre reason, maybe I’ve just become excessively cynical, I find I can’t believe FIFA are angry that the low broadcast bids are offensive to women more that they are offensive to FIFA’s love of filling their bank account.
    Supply ands demand and the free market.

    I am heartened by the large crowds that the Women's Premier League, European games and the internationals are getting. Its great. But I also suspect that the ticket prices are still markedly cheaper than for the men's game.

    That may change. But at the moment their isn't much of a competition to show the WC from Australia at rubbish times, so realistically FIFA need to take what they can get.

    The worst thing would be no footage at all - as happened to cricket after Sky - lack of terrestrial is damaging for getting new players into the sport.

    (Just checked - Womens Man Utd 6 pounds a ticket).
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,241


    If we get those, it is worth the change. What we do after that is likely too difficult to achieve without some kind of national crisis where we all have a "where do we go from here" conversation. Covid could have been that, but we had Boris in government.

    Did *any* country have a serious change of national direction post covid? My impression has been a lot of return to status quo (at varying paces) but I certainly haven't done a wideranging survey of this...

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    If Big Sam is the answer, you are asking the wrong question.
    "Name a person whose blood type is 'gravy'."
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    Although of course private Sector Pay has risen much more than Public Sector Pay since 2010.

    Also its not a race to the bottom

    Also as a Tory you should surely understand supply and demand and the Market

    Vacancies at all time high, is the market working!!
    Eh? I'm not a Tory. Based on what you've said I'm less likely to vote Tory next time than you are. I'm at least giving Sir Keir a chance...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Vanilla again...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Thank you for illustrating my point.

    Michael Gove says leaving EU would mean quitting single market
    - https://www.ft.com/content/0c5c74bc-151e-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

    Cameron: ‘I’ll pull UK out of the single market after Brexit’
    - https://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-bbc-andrew-marr-ill-pull-uk-out-of-the-single-market-after-brexit-eu-referendum-vote-june-23-consequences-news/
    Cameron knew he would have to resign, immediately, if he lost the Brexit vote (tho he denied it for obvious reasons) so I don’t think his stupid opinion counts for much, as to what he would have done “after Brexit”

    Senior Brexiteers like Hannah DID say we would stay in the Single Market. I can’t remember Boris’s position, I imagine it was constructively ambiguous

    On this point we disagree. Leavers knew that the vaguer they were, the more votes they would get

    But Remainers also told terrible lies: Turkey’s accession was always out of the question, etc etc, and of course the europhiles had to overcome three decades of CONSTANT lies (there is no loss of sovereignty, it’s all a tidying up exercise, we will give you a vote on the Constitution etc)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471
    Leon said:

    I’m sipping a martini in a wine bar on soi 8, Sukhumvit and there’s a table of Brits next to me who’ve stopped watching the Liverpool game so - no joke - they can discuss “Greygate”

    One guy just said he’s flying home two weeks early to vote Tory when he’s normally Plaid Cymru, just because of Greygate. Another guy said Yeah Starmer’s Ok but Sunak looks so HEALTHY

    Bet accordingly



    It really makes you want to be there.

    Like the tax office in Hartlepool
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,793

    Vanilla again...

    Harsh but fair to SKS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,793
    There is something wild about the fact that Russia has mobilised 300,000 men since Sep, conducted 700+ air & drone strikes since Oct & hurled itself at Donbas since Jan, with as many as 20,000 killed in action ... and actually managed a net *loss* of territory in April
    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1653391402179362817
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    There are some *massive* structural problems in this country. And if you propose a policy platform to (from your perspective) fix them, you either get laughed off stage (Corbyn) or booted out (Truss).

    Our political system no longer allows for divergence from our managed national decline. So of course there is an ever-narrowing gap between the parties. My minimal expectations for the incoming Labour government is to treat people with basic human dignity and not be a cesspool of incompetent corruption.

    If we get those, it is worth the change. What we do after that is likely too difficult to achieve without some kind of national crisis where we all have a "where do we go from here" conversation. Covid could have been that, but we had Boris in government.
    They ain't going to treat people with dignity because they'll claim they can't afford to, and the levels of corruption will be the same because, lacking the will to do anything with their offices, they'll have nothing to do with their time but work out which of their mates are going to be installed as heads of which quangos.

    I'm sorry, but if the only purpose of change is for its own sake then the democratic process is of no value. None whatsoever. We might as well not bother.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    Leon said:

    Cameron knew he would have to resign, immediately, if he lost the Brexit vote (tho he denied it for obvious reasons) so I don’t think his stupid opinion counts for much, as to what he would have done “after Brexit”

    Senior Brexiteers like Hannah DID say we would stay in the Single Market. I can’t remember Boris’s position, I imagine it was constructively ambiguous

    On this point we disagree. Leavers knew that the vaguer they were, the more votes they would get
    I agree that they tried to be constructively ambiguous about what Leave would mean, but when forced to take a position, they did commit to leaving the single market.

    My point is more about the subsequent rewriting of history by people who seem to think the question was never addressed before the referendum at all, and see it as the result of some kind of 'coup' after the fact.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    Roger said:

    It really makes you want to be there.

    Like the tax office in Hartlepool
    He's just waiting for his Cod & Chips plus mushy peas to arrive and the evening will be complete.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Leon said:

    Yes, of course

    We have now brexited. The vote is honoured. British democracy works. It sticks to promises made by the prime minister, no less. Your Vote Will Count. This Is It. So it is still worth voting in future elections and referendums because it makes a difference. it matters. YOU, the voter, YOU MATTER

    Now we’ve done that, Remainers/Rejoiners are free to start campaigning for an immediate 2nd referendum to go straight back in. Heck, if they are persuasive enough, I might even vote for them

    But we HAD to honour the first vote. Anything else was insane self harm and would have sent us to a terrible place
    Rejoin (as in a full rejoin of the EU) is going to become like the Death Penalty. Even if there are consistent polling majorities in favour, no mainstream political party, knowing what a shit show it would cause, is going to be dumb enough to suggest it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    I agree that they tried to be constructively ambiguous about what Leave would mean, but when forced to take a position, they did commit to leaving the single market.

    No, they didn't.

    They did the opposite in fact
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430
    Leon said:

    Cameron knew he would have to resign, immediately, if he lost the Brexit vote (tho he denied it for obvious reasons) so I don’t think his stupid opinion counts for much, as to what he would have done “after Brexit”

    Senior Brexiteers like Hannah DID say we would stay in the Single Market. I can’t remember Boris’s position, I imagine it was constructively ambiguous

    On this point we disagree. Leavers knew that the vaguer they were, the more votes they would get

    But Remainers also told terrible lies: Turkey’s accession was always out of the question, etc etc, and of course the europhiles had to overcome three decades of CONSTANT lies (there is no loss of sovereignty, it’s all a tidying up exercise, we will give you a vote on the Constitution etc)
    Although, of course, we could have vetoed Turkish membership as a member of the EU, while we could not as a member of EFTA/EEA.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Sean_F said:

    It doesn't matter now. It's not in the gift of any British government to reverse Brexit. Why would Starmer, or any other PM, wish to spend years negotiating terms of accession with the EU, when a referendum on rejoining might well be lost, and when the EU wouldn't want a lukewarm member anyway?

    The moving hand hath writ.
    Yes, it’s done now. I can’t see us formally Rejoining ever. There will be some fiddling and finessing on Single Market stuff as it benefits both sides. See Switzerland - which has been constantly renegotiating its relationship with the EU for decades. That’s us. But it will be less and less emotional and consequential for most people. Just boring politics for politicians to sort

    Besides, as I have said more than once, AI is about to transform economies and politics in a ways which will utterly dwarf our particular relationship with the European Union so it all becomes moot and trivial
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430

    I agree that they tried to be constructively ambiguous about what Leave would mean, but when forced to take a position, they did commit to leaving the single market.

    My point is more about the subsequent rewriting of history by people who seem to think the question was never addressed before the referendum at all, and see it as the result of some kind of 'coup' after the fact.
    "There is a free trade area from the Baltic to the Atlantic, and the UK will be a member of it."

    I believe those were the exact words in the Brexit leaflet.

    Creatively ambiguous would be generous.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    Selebian said:

    Given the toxicity of 'leave' that question formation could backfire spectacularly from a remain leave er... go back in point of view :disappointed:
    Ah but no - it's clever because it leverages the grey cell deficit of 2016 Leave voters. Lots of them will just pile in and tick the same box again.

    "Bastards making us vote again. We'll show em!"
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    rcs1000 said:

    "There is a free trade area from the Baltic to the Atlantic, and the UK will be a member of it."

    I believe those were the exact words in the Brexit leaflet.

    Creatively ambiguous would be generous.
    Didn't say whether it was by land or by sea.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    Issue one in the campaign: is a vote to rejoin a mandate to join the Euro?

    Rejoin would have to say "no" in order to avoid holing their campaign below the waterline, but what if the EU doesn't recreate our opt-outs?
    It is compellingly obvious that the route for moderate remainers and sensible leavers is EFTA/EEA. We can only hope that Sir Keir thinks so too.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    rcs1000 said:

    "There is a free trade area from the Baltic to the Atlantic, and the UK will be a member of it."

    I believe those were the exact words in the Brexit leaflet.

    Creatively ambiguous would be generous.
    Time to show my ignorance (yet again). Do we not have free trade with the EU now? I understood that the issues are associated with ease of trade (paperwork etc) not tariffs? Please laugh at me if I have this wrong.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712
    rcs1000 said:

    Although, of course, we could have vetoed Turkish membership as a member of the EU, while we could not as a member of EFTA/EEA.
    In theory we could still cause some trouble, if we felt like it: Turkey only gets in when the situation in Cyprus is resolved. Cyprus is only resolved when the UNSC says it is. We have a veto at the UNSC. Not that we would do this, of course.

    I suspect the French would veto anyway.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471




    Step forward.
    How can she. Isn't she sitting on a toilet?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    Time to show my ignorance (yet again). Do we not have free trade with the EU now?

    Are we "a member" of " a free trade area from the Baltic to the Atlantic" ?

    Ummmm, no...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Roger said:

    It really makes you want to be there.

    Like the tax office in Hartlepool
    Soi 8 Sukhumvit is fucking brilliant. Superb restaurants and bars, full of all nationalities, and cuisines, with that intense vivacity of nightlife that only Bangkok delivers

    I agree with Janan Ganesh of the FT on the greatest cities in the world - London and Bangkok - I just demur on his third choice: Los Angeles. No
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430
    edited May 2023

    Time to show my ignorance (yet again). Do we not have free trade with the EU now? I understood that the issues are associated with ease of trade (paperwork etc) not tariffs? Please laugh at me if I have this wrong.
    In the vast majority of goods, but not all.

    (It's Rules of Origin, innit.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    Scott_xP said:

    No, they didn't.

    They did the opposite in fact
    To believe this, you have to believe that the referendum had nothing to do with ending free movment of people, which I know you don't believe.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Scott_xP said:

    Are we "a member" of " a free trade area from the Baltic to the Atlantic" ?

    Ummmm, no...
    Whats the effective difference?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Roger said:

    It really makes you want to be there.

    Like the tax office in Hartlepool
    Just as there ain't no ferry to Glastonbury, there ain't no tax office in Hartlepool. Cue for a song, and a lament for Adge Cutler, d. 5th May 1974. O the years, the years....

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952

    Rejoin (as in a full rejoin of the EU) is going to become like the Death Penalty. Even if there are consistent polling majorities in favour, no mainstream political party, knowing what a shit show it would cause, is going to be dumb enough to suggest it.
    I suspect that's right. As you know I was and am a very committed Europhile but even I don't really relish the idea of getting into the same old dialogue of the deaf over membership that a new referendum would entail. The rage has ebbed away. Polls showing a majority for rejoin are more poignant than stirring these days.

    That's perhaps the biggest achievement of the 2019 election victory: it ended the fight in all but the most ardent FBPEs. It killed off hope, and of course it's the hope that kills you. The total defeat in 2019 was almost a blessed release.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430
    Leon said:

    Soi 8 Sukhumvit is fucking brilliant. Superb restaurants and bars, full of all nationalities, and cuisines, with that intense vivacity of nightlife that only Bangkok delivers

    I agree with Janan Ganesh of the FT on the greatest cities in the world - London and Bangkok - I just demur on his third choice: Los Angeles. No
    It takes a long-time to know Los Angeles, and much of it is pretty soulless.

    But it's my second favourite city on the planet.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 756
    Leon said:

    I’m sipping a martini in a wine bar on soi 8, Sukhumvit and there’s a table of Brits next to me who’ve stopped watching the Liverpool game so - no joke - they can discuss “Greygate”

    One guy just said he’s flying home two weeks early to vote Tory when he’s normally Plaid Cymru, just because of Greygate. Another guy said Yeah Starmer’s Ok but Sunak looks so HEALTHY

    Bet accordingly



    Good luck finding anywhere you could vote Plaid Cymru. I call bullshit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    rcs1000 said:

    "There is a free trade area from the Baltic to the Atlantic, and the UK will be a member of it."

    I believe those were the exact words in the Brexit leaflet.

    Creatively ambiguous would be generous.
    Those were not the exact words. The statement talked about being "part of" a free trade zone, not a member of it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    rcs1000 said:

    It takes a long-time to know Los Angeles, and much of it is pretty soulless.

    But it's my second favourite city on the planet.

    Once again your love of Radiohead makes more sense in context
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    To believe this, you have to believe that the referendum had nothing to do with ending free movment of people, which I know you don't believe.

    I believe the Brexiteers lied about the consequences of Brexit, and gullible people voted for it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952

    Time to show my ignorance (yet again). Do we not have free trade with the EU now? I understood that the issues are associated with ease of trade (paperwork etc) not tariffs? Please laugh at me if I have this wrong.
    Depends on how you define "free trade". It's a term of art at best. We don't have completely free trade because it is restricted by regulations, quotas, visa requirements and the various bits of admin that all combine to make up non-tariff barriers. For most products and services these are most important anyway - customs duties are only material in a limited number of industries.

    Anyway I've just been invited to talk on a panel at an event, the topic of which is "Brexit opportunities: what will really make a difference for business", so I'd better starting polishing my Brexit boosterism.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    I accept the meme
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    edited May 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    I believe the Brexiteers lied about the consequences of Brexit, and gullible people voted for it.
    Has there ever been an election anywhere which didn't involve lying and which excluded the gullible?

    Remainers also lied about the consequences of Remain, and gullible people also voted for them. So what? That's the nature of a democratic election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    Leon said:

    Soi 8 Sukhumvit is fucking brilliant. Superb restaurants and bars, full of all nationalities, and cuisines, with that intense vivacity of nightlife that only Bangkok delivers

    I agree with Janan Ganesh of the FT on the greatest cities in the world - London and Bangkok - I just demur on his third choice: Los Angeles. No
    That may be but it looks gopping full of old white blokes drinking Tetleys.

    "sipping a martini in a wine bar" sounds très élégant. My arse.
  • timpletimple Posts: 123
    Leon said:

    Cameron knew he would have to resign, immediately, if he lost the Brexit vote (tho he denied it for obvious reasons) so I don’t think his stupid opinion counts for much, as to what he would have done “after Brexit”

    Senior Brexiteers like Hannah DID say we would stay in the Single Market. I can’t remember Boris’s position, I imagine it was constructively ambiguous

    On this point we disagree. Leavers knew that the vaguer they were, the more votes they would get

    But Remainers also told terrible lies: Turkey’s accession was always out of the question, etc etc, and of course the europhiles had to overcome three decades of CONSTANT lies (there is no loss of sovereignty, it’s all a tidying up exercise, we will give you a vote on the Constitution etc)
    Below is a great twitter thread from 2019 documenting how the debate moved from membership or not of the SM if we chose to leave the EU being an active issue before the referendum and immediately afterwards to becoming "Both sides said" by January 2017.

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1143227136985260039

    The video showing David Davies position developing from "its a negotiation" to "both sides said" is probably enough , but there is loads more contemporary evidence besides.

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1143227211375362048

    Sorry to impose cognitive dissonance on anyone who has "remembered" differently!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited May 2023

    Issue one in the campaign: is a vote to rejoin a mandate to join the Euro?

    Rejoin would have to say "no" in order to avoid holing their campaign below the waterline, but what if the EU doesn't recreate our opt-outs?
    It's Leave (no man's land) not Rejoin. That's number 1. Then to the substantive point. So, fine, just as in all campaigns there'll be issues, questions, truth and lies. It will be for Leave to make their case and Remain (in no man's land) to make theirs.

    The bottom line is as before. If the 'change' proposition prevails it then falls on the government to negotiate the best deal with the EU that it can. An entry deal this time rather than an exit one.

    Will the details of the deal have to be known before the vote? Nope. Of course not. Did the details of the deal last time have to be known before the vote? I should cocoa.

    The lesson of Brexit - to be taken to heart for any other EU referendum or indeed for the Sindy one when it comes - is that for the change campaign to win they must AVOID SPECIFICS.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    You're not making any attempt to engage with reality.
    Why would he start now?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,430

    Those were not the exact words. The statement talked about being "part of" a free trade zone, not a member of it.
    Apologies.

    If someone says, you'll be "a part" of something, it suggests that there is a whole, of which you are a part.

    Very different to being a member.

    But you will concede, I hope, that some people might have read the line as suggesting that the UK would be a member of the free trade area that went from the Baltic to the Atlantic?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    carnforth said:

    In theory we could still cause some trouble, if we felt like it: Turkey only gets in when the situation in Cyprus is resolved. Cyprus is only resolved when the UNSC says it is. We have a veto at the UNSC. Not that we would do this, of course.

    I suspect the French would veto anyway.
    And given the overt racism and xenophobia on show there, Austria as well.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    timple said:

    Below is a great twitter thread from 2019 documenting how the debate moved from membership or not of the SM if we chose to leave the EU being an active issue before the referendum and immediately afterwards to becoming "Both sides said" by January 2017.

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1143227136985260039

    The video showing David Davies position developing from "its a negotiation" to "both sides said" is probably enough , but there is loads more contemporary evidence besides.

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1143227211375362048

    Sorry to impose cognitive dissonance on anyone who has "remembered" differently!
    Very selective examples given William's links below.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Pulpstar said:

    To add leavers denying we can never have one ever again because of "democracy" are just as bad as the remainers who wanted a second vote before we left.
    Yes, I think that's true.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867




    Step forward.
    The warning signs were always there weren't they? 😂
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    timple said:

    Below is a great twitter thread from 2019 documenting how the debate moved from membership or not of the SM if we chose to leave the EU being an active issue before the referendum and immediately afterwards to becoming "Both sides said" by January 2017.

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1143227136985260039

    The video showing David Davies position developing from "its a negotiation" to "both sides said" is probably enough , but there is loads more contemporary evidence besides.

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1143227211375362048

    Sorry to impose cognitive dissonance on anyone who has "remembered" differently!
    The person behind that account is another example of someone who has radicalised themselves beyond recognition. He started out as a Eurosceptic Tory.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,521
    kinabalu said:

    It's Leave (no man's land) not Rejoin. That's number 1. Then to the substantive point. So, fine, just as in all campaigns there'll be issues, questions, truth and lies. It will be for Leave to make their case and Remain (in no man's land) to make theirs.

    The bottom line is as before. If the 'change' proposition prevails it then falls on the government to negotiate the best deal with the EU that it can. An entry deal this time rather than an exit one.

    Will the details of the deal have to be known before the vote? Nope. Of course not. Did the details of the deal last time have to be known before the vote? I should cocoa.

    The lesson of Brexit - to be taken to heart for any other EU referendum or indeed for the Sindy one when it comes - is that for the change campaign to win they must AVOID SPECIFICS.
    That would be the big problem for the Rejoin campaign. It would be open to their opponents to pin all manner of charges on the Rejoiners.

    And, you'd have a very bemused EU leadership thinking "Why the hell do we want to go through this, all over again?" with perhaps a very fractious set of negotiations to follow a Rejoin vote in the referendum, with the possibility of a change of government in the intervening years.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244

    Many unreconciled Remainers have internalised a completely false narrative of the period before June 23rd 2016.

    Pretty sure this applies to at least one reconciled Remainer too.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835
    rcs1000 said:

    Apologies.

    If someone says, you'll be "a part" of something, it suggests that there is a whole, of which you are a part.

    Very different to being a member.

    But you will concede, I hope, that some people might have read the line as suggesting that the UK would be a member of the free trade area that went from the Baltic to the Atlantic?
    I might add that it's an odd choice of geography. "From the Baltic to the Atlantic" makes me think: Norway and Sweden.
    A better pan-European descriptor might be 'from the Arctic to the Mediterranean'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Sean_F said:

    It doesn't matter now. It's not in the gift of any British government to reverse Brexit. Why would Starmer, or any other PM, wish to spend years negotiating terms of accession with the EU, when a referendum on rejoining might well be lost, and when the EU wouldn't want a lukewarm member anyway?

    The moving hand hath writ.
    I don't want it but I think it depends on the EU.

    If they really wanted Britain back the smart thing for them to do would be to offer previous terms, with Cameron's deal, plus the end of the rebate, and hugely accelerate the reaccession process. I.e. also with an ever closer union cop out clause and the Maastricht exemption on the Euro back in but you pay more because fuck up and we need it - sorry. Otherwise we'd vote it down.

    But, they've never shown themselves to be that flexible. So I expect them to say standard terms, take it or leave it sister.

    The alternative pro EU approach is lots and lots of side deals that progressively approach an asymptote of where our previous membership roughly was anyway, with payments, freer movement, and lots of "informal" consultation in future that reflects the real-politik. EPU++++

    If they had, we wouldn't be here.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    edited May 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Ah but no - it's clever because it leverages the grey cell deficit of 2016 Leave voters. Lots of them will just pile in and tick the same box again.

    "Bastards making us vote again. We'll show em!"
    Ah, but us erstwhile remainers are smart enough to see the obvious trick and smart enough to realise it must be a double bluff, therefore we will vote Remain :disappointed:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    On the single market, there is a (very famous? I'm not going to try to find it) clip of all sides saying categorically that Brexit would mean the UK leaving the single market.

    As @kinabalu has pointed out, relying on your constituency to be TAPS is evidently a winning strategy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,245
    TimS said:

    OK so this allows us to segue into:

    Who would win in a fight between the Westminster party leaders?

    Under time honoured British tradition, it would turn out that the head of the Natural law party is actually ex Captain of Boats, Hereford Boat club. Or something like that
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471
    TOPPING said:

    That may be but it looks gopping full of old white blokes drinking Tetleys.

    "sipping a martini in a wine bar" sounds très élégant. My arse.
    I thought I recognised the location.....

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=John+Smiths+advert+arkwrite#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:6d8995e7,vid:2XEENl92Enk
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    TimS said:

    Depends on how you define "free trade". It's a term of art at best. We don't have completely free trade because it is restricted by regulations, quotas, visa requirements and the various bits of admin that all combine to make up non-tariff barriers. For most products and services these are most important anyway - customs duties are only material in a limited number of industries.

    Anyway I've just been invited to talk on a panel at an event, the topic of which is "Brexit opportunities: what will really make a difference for business", so I'd better starting polishing my Brexit boosterism.
    Lawyers, accountants, VAT consultants should all be doing bonanza trade from the extra red tape.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    SKS fans please explain why it was OK to condemn Boris for being a liar but you will defend the man who makes him look like an amateur on that front!!
    https://twitter.com/Agitate4Change/status/1653338593417482243
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited May 2023

    No - the conditions would need to be said too - otherwise when we lose the pound, are forced into the Euro, lose our central bank, pay lots more into the EU budget, have no rebate etc, then the whole shitshow starts again.

    Make an honest case of the pros (trade, jobs for those who wish to work in Europe, boost to GDP etc) vs cost (being a net contributer to the budget, no check on Europeans moving to the UK). Otherwise it sets up the next 20 years of arguments.
    We're talking practical politics not an exam question. For the Change proposition to win it should stay vague and simplistic and aspirational. It should also avoid engaging with difficult questions. Look at 2016. Would Leave have won if it'd been defined. Nope. And would Leave have won if there'd been a rigorous, informed and intelligent debate? Not a chance. Everybody knows this. THAT is the lesson of the EU referendum, none of this "next time we should be all elevated and thoughtful" wishcasting. That's naive or it's virtue-signalling or (when it comes from unreformed Leavers) it's pure and simple trolling.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited May 2023
    Selebian said:

    Ah, but us erstwhile remainers are smart enough to see the obvious trick and smart enough to realise it must be a double bluff, therefore we will vote Remain :disappointed:
    Oh god I see what you mean. Too clever by half and thus lose again. I'll work on it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Cookie said:

    I might add that it's an odd choice of geography. "From the Baltic to the Atlantic" makes me think: Norway and Sweden.
    A better pan-European descriptor might be 'from the Arctic to the Mediterranean'.
    Also, I was thinking of EFTA rather than the EU. I wonder if that was a deliberately misleading wording originally.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,245
    Nigelb said:

    Yes, but he's a loon.
    I’d argue the problem is too much attempted determinism from Westminster.

    A little while ago, a friend put the idea of subsidy-on-delivery for Green tech investment to their local MP. As in, say pay X per actual battery cell delivered to a customer, with X a function of U.K. content/work.

    The response (from an opposition MP) was that would be a ghastly abdication of the responsibility of government to direct spending in detail.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471

    SKS fans please explain why it was OK to condemn Boris for being a liar but you will defend the man who makes him look like an amateur on that front!!
    https://twitter.com/Agitate4Change/status/1653338593417482243

    An intellectually challenging website!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846
    GIN1138 said:

    The warning signs were always there weren't they? 😂
    :lol: That picture is AWFUL. Gotta love awkward Liz.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    TOPPING said:

    That may be but it looks gopping full of old white blokes drinking Tetleys.

    "sipping a martini in a wine bar" sounds très élégant. My arse.
    I know you’ve not traveled much so I’ll give you a little tour

    Soi 8 is magical because you get such a mix. This is Det 5, a garden bar which dates back to when these were dirt roads in the 1960s and this bar was full of American GIs on RnR. They have the photos in the bogs



    Ten yards away is a chic Italian which does great food and is seriously pricey



    Yet just across the road locals are cooking up their own food on a brazier



    And all of this is surrounded by soaring skyscrapers with rooftop bars full hi-so Chinese Thai billionaire girls



  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Cookie said:

    I might add that it's an odd choice of geography. "From the Baltic to the Atlantic" makes me think: Norway and Sweden.
    A better pan-European descriptor might be 'from the Arctic to the Mediterranean'.
    Just as State of Georgia never quite makes it to the Gulf of Mexico, the Kingdom of Norway never quite makes it to the Gulf of Bothnia, let alone the Baltic proper . . . or improper . . .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    Roger said:

    How can she. Isn't she sitting on a toilet?
    Can anyone work out where her knees are in that photograph? It looks as though she has two knees on each leg. Very strange.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    Leon said:

    I know you’ve not traveled much so I’ll give you a little tour

    Soi 8 is magical because you get such a mix. This is Det 5, a garden bar which dates back to when these were dirt roads in the 1960s and this bar was full of American GIs on RnR. They have the photos in the bogs



    Ten yards away is a chic Italian which does great food and is seriously pricey



    Yet just across the road locals are cooking up their own food on a brazier



    And all of this is surrounded by soaring skyscrapers with rooftop bars full hi-so Chinese Thai billionaire girls



    Yes I've been to Bangkok and of all of it you've found the Troppo bar which serves Tetleys on tap.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    kinabalu said:

    We're talking practical politics not an exam question. For the Change proposition to win it should stay vague and simplistic and aspirational. It should also avoid engaging with difficult questions. Look at 2016. Would Leave have won if it'd been defined. Nope. And would Leave have won if there'd been a rigorous, informed and intelligent debate? Not a chance. Everybody knows this. THAT is the lesson of the EU referendum, none of this "next time we should be all elevated and thoughtful" wishcasting. That's naive or it's virtue-signalling or (when it comes from unreformed Leavers) it's pure and simple trolling.
    But can't you see the issue with the BiB? Do that and you set the future argument up right there.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952

    Lawyers, accountants, VAT consultants should all be doing bonanza trade from the extra red tape.
    We're not though. At least most of us aren't. My customs duty colleagues are certainly kept busy but otherwise it's mainly quite low level pen pushing stuff which takes time, costs money, but doesn't really engage the grey matter. So it's the freight forwarders and 3PLs as well as the employment bureaus that make most of the money.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    I know you’ve not traveled much so I’ll give you a little tour

    Soi 8 is magical because you get such a mix. This is Det 5, a garden bar which dates back to when these were dirt roads in the 1960s and this bar was full of American GIs on RnR. They have the photos in the bogs



    Ten yards away is a chic Italian which does great food and is seriously pricey



    Yet just across the road locals are cooking up their own food on a brazier



    And all of this is surrounded by soaring skyscrapers with rooftop bars full hi-so Chinese Thai billionaire girls



    Personally speaking, would prefer to hang with the folks at the card table, provided they'd let me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon might be interested in this.

    "AI 'godfather' quits Google over dangers of Artificial Intelligence"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsBGaHywRhs
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952

    SKS fans please explain why it was OK to condemn Boris for being a liar but you will defend the man who makes him look like an amateur on that front!!
    https://twitter.com/Agitate4Change/status/1653338593417482243

    So far SKS has mainly lied to his party membership, whereas Boris lied to everyone including the country. I can see that for a Labour member that's one and the same thing, but for non members like me there's a difference.

    Now it's quite possible he will go on to lie to us all and not deliver on his winning manifesto, but we're not there yet.

    Still, as a Lib Dem I'm very pleased to see him changing his mind on tuition fees. It means nobody can ever point the finger at us again.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    Sean_F said:

    That would be the big problem for the Rejoin campaign. It would be open to their opponents to pin all manner of charges on the Rejoiners.

    And, you'd have a very bemused EU leadership thinking "Why the hell do we want to go through this, all over again?" with perhaps a very fractious set of negotiations to follow a Rejoin vote in the referendum, with the possibility of a change of government in the intervening years.
    Nobody's saying it'll be a cakewalk. The fundamentals will be like last time but in reverse. Remain failed to pin Leave down on what Leave meant? Yep. Ok so maybe the same happens again on the details of our refreshed membership. Will the EU want us back if we clearly want back ourselves? I think so. I don't know for sure but neither do you or anybody else know they won't. Much will depend on the circumstances at the time and the UK/EU political leaderships in place. All of this is unknown.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Under time honoured British tradition, it would turn out that the head of the Natural law party is actually ex Captain of Boats, Hereford Boat club. Or something like that
    Doug Beattie of the UUP was a soldier, but not a Westminster leader. Tale of the tape probably gives it to Ed Davey.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    But can't you see the issue with the BiB? Do that and you set the future argument up right there.
    You also risk the EU saying "non".
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858

    SKS fans please explain why it was OK to condemn Boris for being a liar but you will defend the man who makes him look like an amateur on that front!!
    https://twitter.com/Agitate4Change/status/1653338593417482243

    Not an SKS fan. Not voting for his party. But:
    1 Boris was lying to the public. Over and over. As people had their lives upended and saw their relatives died. A big deal
    2 Starmer was lying to an electorate of trot entryists knowing that once he secured the leadership most would leave and thus could be discarded.

    Starmer lying to you isn't the same as Boris lying to the nation.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    kinabalu said:

    We're talking practical politics not an exam question.. It should also avoid engaging with difficult questions. Look at 2016. Would Leave have won if it'd been defined. Nope. And would Leave have won if there'd been a rigorous, informed and intelligent debate? Not a chance. Everybody knows this. THAT is the lesson of the EU referendum, none of this "next time we should be all elevated and thoughtful" wishcasting. That's naive or it's virtue-signalling or (when it comes from unreformed Leavers) it's pure and simple trolling.
    Driver said:

    You also risk the EU saying "non".
    They won't say 'non', but they may say 'sorry, the price has increased on last time'
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    edited May 2023
    TimS said:

    So far SKS has mainly lied to his party membership, whereas Boris lied to everyone including the country. I can see that for a Labour member that's one and the same thing, but for non members like me there's a difference.

    Now it's quite possible he will go on to lie to us all and not deliver on his winning manifesto, but we're not there yet.

    Still, as a Lib Dem I'm very pleased to see him changing his mind on tuition fees. It means nobody can ever point the finger at us again.
    That assumes there will be anything in his manifesto...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952

    Not an SKS fan. Not voting for his party. But:
    1 Boris was lying to the public. Over and over. As people had their lives upended and saw their relatives died. A big deal
    2 Starmer was lying to an electorate of trot entryists knowing that once he secured the leadership most would leave and thus could be discarded.

    Starmer lying to you isn't the same as Boris lying to the nation.
    But there's an interesting parallel with the Tory right, for whom the will of the paid up membership constitutes a "mandate". Remember Truss and her mandate to govern?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    edited May 2023

    They won't say 'non', but they may say 'sorry, the price has increased on last time'
    Oh, they will definitely say that.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,952
    Driver said:

    That assumes there will be anything in his manifesto...
    The "they have no policies" trope is one of the more puzzling ones about Starmer's Labour, over a year out from an election. They've been relatively speaking pretty policy-heavy so far compared with most mid term oppositions. Indeed we're all talking about an actual policy change today.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    kinabalu said:

    Nobody's saying it'll be a cakewalk. The fundamentals will be like last time but in reverse. Remain failed to pin Leave down on what Leave meant? Yep. Ok so maybe the same happens again on the details of our refreshed membership. Will the EU want us back if we clearly want back ourselves? I think so. I don't know for sure but neither do you or anybody else know they won't. Much will depend on the circumstances at the time and the UK/EU political leaderships in place. All of this is unknown.
    And utterly fanciful. No matter how much you might want it, it isn't happening. No serious politician wants to reopen that can of worms.

    And of course time is against you. The same dynamics that made Brexit necessary at the point it happened will only make it all the more difficult to rejoin.

    Cut your loses and campaign for something sensible like EFTA membership. That at least has a reasonable chance of happening.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Personally speaking, would prefer to hang with the folks at the card table, provided they'd let me.
    100%. That Italian has gone all in on the mid-range suburban look; the sort of place your mother in law posts about on the local FB group. The folk over the way look like good craic.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471

    Rejoin (as in a full rejoin of the EU) is going to become like the Death Penalty. Even if there are consistent polling majorities in favour, no mainstream political party, knowing what a shit show it would cause, is going to be dumb enough to suggest it.
    I think you're right but there will be other long term consequences. The most obvious is the slow death of the Conservative Party. The damage they've caused will become ever more apparent-God Knows it's bad enough already-and the public led by the young will over time vent their spleen in the only direction available.





  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    TimS said:

    The "they have no policies" trope is one of the more puzzling ones about Starmer's Labour, over a year out from an election. They've been relatively speaking pretty policy-heavy so far compared with most mid term oppositions. Indeed we're all talking about an actual policy change today.
    A change from having a policy (to scrap tuition fees) to not having such a policy!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    TimS said:

    But there's an interesting parallel with the Tory right, for whom the will of the paid up membership constitutes a "mandate". Remember Truss and her mandate to govern?
    Truss had a mandate to govern as she could command a majority in the Commons. She could not secure a majority for whatever batshit policies the Tory members wanted and she had to go.

    What the hard left don't get is that when they screech about "Starmer is a liar" most voters think "only to you" if they even think about it at all.

    Look at the tuition fees thing. They haven't committed to maintain the current system, only that they won't just abolish fees. And yet only 28% *of students* supported the abolition of fees. So its not even that he will lose the student vote.
This discussion has been closed.