Biden is going for a second term – politicalbetting.com
Biden is going for a second term – politicalbetting.com
The big news in US politics today is that aging Joe Biden is to seek a second term and the response on the WH2024 nomination betting is very clear – he’s being rated as an 82% chance. As to the race itself, he is being traded as a 40% chance.
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He really isn't up to it. He got away with very limited campaigning in 2020 because of Covid. The schedule he would have to undertake this time has a serious risk of killing him.
It's just a shame that I lost my nerve and traded out just about even
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1650877084099543044?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
@BritainElects
Public opinion towards the [X] brand:
LAB: 37% positive / 35% negative
GRN: 28% / 31%
LDEM: 23% / 36%
CON: 20% / 52%
REF: 13% / 38%
via
@IpsosUK
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/04/can-greens-sustain-gains-may-local-elections
Biden has already confirmed Harris stays, and he's not going to drop the first female VP and first black VP even if her approval ratings are poor (which they are - although not that much worse than his own).
I also doubt she's much of a drag on the ticket. As mentioned, her approval ratings aren't good, and she's not by any means a shoo-in to succeed him in 2028 if re-elected. That's rather different to her raising "heartbeat away from the Presidency" issues, though. She's no Quayle and no Palin. Few are enthused by the idea of her becoming President if Biden dies or is incapacitated (which is a non-trivial possibility given his age). But that isn't the same as fearing it - not by a long way.
Oh and if the GOP count the votes fairly and don’t try and pull of an attempted coup/insurrection.
This is getting a little tedious. I only joined the SpaceX one just before launch so missed all the inane chatter on that one.
ETA: Leon, is that one of yours behind the Ariane guy?
ETA2: Ah, might be getting somewhere now.
ETA3: No, still talking heads
I don't think Kamala is going anywhere. She balances the ticket for the Democrat base in useful ways for Biden, and the people on the Democrat side who'd speculate about forcing an aged President to retire midway through their second term will be dissuaded from doing so by her presence as VP.
I think they'll be fairly happy with that at this stage.
Edit - Janet Yellen is of course nearly as old as Biden. There is probably a promotion opportunity there too although it's less high profile.
Otherwise, forget it.
But that's not happening, either.
We are about 1.5 years from the date of the presidential election.
So taking account of the potential for his health to deteriorate, what might be the chances of Biden lasting long enough in a reasonably coherent state, enough to remain on the ticket as the Democratic nominee until polling day? Smarkets implies that it is above 82%, given that the outside chance of someone yet running against him has to be allowed for in addition to potential for his health to deteriorate. At face value that seems to me to be too high.
🚨NEW: @SCoRMembers have voted against the NHS pay deal with 80% rejecting on a turnout of two thirds. Members will now be balloted for industrial action:
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1650879731783417856?t=5hvxxcIIte68x7_qKaGkxQ&s=19
18 months : 15-20%?
And that depends as well on the threshold for withdrawal. Even a weaker still Biden with his team around him might decide to continue as the figurehead and if it's all working, then why invoke any amendment?
For long shot Dems, I guess, the timing is critical. Biden's presence deters the candidacies of serious insiders, so get into the primary season before a health issue kicks in, and there is no field to take up the mantle. So, you get to the convention and decide what to do then. Then, if Biden is still nominee on paper and able to VP pick, then it is still up to him to do that. And even if it is blatantly obvious Biden won't be continuing, a different VP pick is the lower likelihood outcome - President Harris becomes the default option and you need to answer how something else will come to pass in a classic Herdsonian rules of the game analysis
Could be a third party candidate too. Could even be Trump. Country fail.
He's their only hope. That's an issue in itself, but probably true.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
On the upside Biden will have the best healthcare possible, on the downside he already looks a tad senile to some of us (others disagree)
In my personal experience people on average go blatantly gaga from about 82-83 onwards. There are obviously many exceptions some can keep their marbles into the late 90s, like our dear late Queen, others start badly forgetting shit in their early 70s
Biden could be going for re-election just as he becomes incontrovertibly senile
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1650894993442177025?t=MDUWdictIBgygf4JPE9Cyw&s=19
The health of the President is seen as fair game in the US, alongside some extraordinarily vicious attack ads even in party primary contests.
“The estimated average age of onset of dementia in the United States is 83.7 years old (Plassman et al. 2011)”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5624986/
Biden already looks doddery and says demented stuff. This ain’t good
But a successful impeachment is less likely still.
It really does say something about the US when the next election is likely Biden v Trump and not in a good way
A lame duck and clearly senile Democrat US president age 85 would provide the perfect conditions
Whether Trump would be any better (or worse) for Xi is moot, of course
And you long ago told us he's already senile.
Hillary v Trump
Trump v Biden
Trump v Biden AGAIN
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3970519-trump-widens-lead-over-desantis-to-37-points-in-new-poll/
Ron DeSunktis.
Trump should use that.
If he does go gags in office, that's what VPs are for.
Beats Kari Lake...
ETA: But weren't they expecting to have heard directly from the craft by now? This is all just the simulation graphics/data, I think?
Even the most loyal labour supporter can hardly say Starmer is doing well in view of the collapse of confidence in the conservatives
There is a big difference between opinion polls which measure the general status of support for a party and then what happens in a targeted area after campaigning and where the electorate is reminded of who the challenger has always been. Although during non campaigning times Labour were 2nd here they were never going to be able to challenge the Tories in this type of seat (wealthy S.E. constituency) whereas the LDs could.
Five minutes to go!
I would do the same for SCOTUS and SCOTUK
I just finished fitting the staircase today, and it has made a significant difference for both of us
While Biden speaks very little, and has been pretty resolute in stopping tech transfer.
(I'm not a fan of banning TikTok, mind. Just on basic freedom grounds.)
IF Richard Nixon couldn't deep-six Spiro Agnew, and George Bush the Elder was stuck with Dan Quayle, then am certain (in my own cotton-pickin' mind) that Joe Biden will retain Kamala Harris.
For one thing, she has NOT been near the baggage for her POTUS, that Spiro and Danny Boy were for their running mates.
For another, the heavy lifting required to chuck America's first Black, Asian AND woman Veep over the side, strikes me as WAY more problematic than removing either Agnew or Quayle would have been, back in their days.
This is like Starmer only leading Sunak by 6% in Liverpool.
I expect the conservatives to have a very bad local elections result, but it is beyond that to October 24 that Sunak needs to continue his progress
That would be truly gracious and would cement his legacy. Instead like some old autocrat he’s determined to plough on. Terrible shame for America