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How votes have moved in Esher since GE1997 – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,387

    On the train to Portsmouth Harbour and stocked up with a few cans of Punk

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/hk/11lcd24d18u1.jpeg" alt="" />

    I lived in Salisbury before I lived in the sandpit. Lots of nice memories of the place.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809

    kinabalu said:

    Sad to hear of the passing of Dame Edna Everage. (Even more baffled that US politics has gotten to the point where an act like Dame Edna is the greatest threat facing society today, according to many Republican politicians.)

    Did Dame Edna ever do a 'Transgender Revenge Day' with a picture of an AR-15 on it? Must have missed that one.
    What proportion of the individuals in the US who fetishize gun violence would be drag queens iyo?
    Haven't run the percentages - this one does have over 7K followers though: https://www.facebook.com/triggerwarninggunclub/

    BTW, have we had the manifesto published yet of the transgender shooter who shot dead children and teachers in Tennessee on Transgender Revenge Day?
    Four points

    * Point of order: that's not answering the question. You need to compare the proportion of one population in or to another
    * IIUC you are conflating two or three events: the shooter and the putative Transgender Revenge Day (right word?) were not on the same day, as was discussed here on the day of the shooting.
    * The number of Instagram posts are about 100 million per day, the number of Tweets are about 500 million per day, the number of active monthly Facebook users is over a thousand million, and the population of the US is about 350 million. I'm not convinced a Facebook group of 7k constitutes significance.
    * Gun culture in the US is huge. The number of people who shoot people is also huge, andthe number of mass shootings is surprisingly large: see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2023 for the list for 2023. I don't think Brits understand this.
  • kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sad to hear of the passing of Dame Edna Everage. (Even more baffled that US politics has gotten to the point where an act like Dame Edna is the greatest threat facing society today, according to many Republican politicians.)

    Did Dame Edna ever do a 'Transgender Revenge Day' with a picture of an AR-15 on it? Must have missed that one.
    What proportion of the individuals in the US who fetishize gun violence would be drag queens iyo?
    Haven't run the percentages - this one does have over 7K followers though: https://www.facebook.com/triggerwarninggunclub/

    BTW, have we had the manifesto published yet of the transgender shooter who shot dead children and teachers in Tennessee on Transgender Revenge Day?
    A) It wasn't on Transgender Revenge Day
    B) Transgender Revenge Day doesn't exist - you might be thinking of this https://www.newsweek.com/trans-day-vengeance-canceled-threats-washington-dc-1791705
    C) according to https://fox17.com/news/local/nashville-tennessee-lawmaker-covenant-school-shooter-manifesto-described-as-a-blueprint-for-heinous-things-audrey-hale-crime-politics-usa-news the "manifesto" hasn't been released and might not be. But unless you know that the person being apparently trans is relevant to the shooting why mention it?

    The only thing we know for sure is that most murders are committed by a certain minority of the population - men.
    Sorry vengeance, not revenge - there is a huge difference :smile: And it was four days before the planned Day - even more proof it wasn't connected :smiley:

    As for "But unless you know that the person being apparently trans is relevant to the shooting why mention it? " it doesn't seem to stop every shooting of someone non-white by someone white as automatically being labelled a hate crime.

    Remarkable how we can see divine so much into the intentions of one set of shooters and not the other.

    I'm not in favour of every shooting of someone non-white by someone white as automatically being labelled a hate crime, are you?
    We agree on something. But there are quite a few on the non-right who are very keen on such a labelling.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,707
    edited April 2023

    biggles said:

    is different from the performer's gender assigned at birth

    Even the legislators have fallen for the gender speak.

    For the thousandth time “gender” is not “assigned” at birth. Your “sex” is “recorded”.
    It's just because they are so repressed that if they say "sex" they will probably ejaculate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,582

    biggles said:

    That Kansas legislation quoted above is bonkers.

    Is this what legal text looks like in the USA? Our Parliamentary Counsel would have a fit.

    Setting aside the fact that I think trying to ban drag is silly, their attempt at a definition is so broad as to be unenforceable.

    “2) "drag performance" means a performance in which one or more performers:

    (A) Exhibits a gender identity that is different from the performer's gender assigned at birth using clothing, makeup or other accessories that are traditionally worn by members of and are meant to exaggerate the gender identity of the performer's opposite sex; and

    (B) sings, lip-synchs, dances or otherwise performs before an audience of at least two
    persons for entertainment, whether performed for payment or not”.

    That covers the Pythons. That covers most farces on stage. That covers the film ET (where he tries lipstick and a dress).

    If enacted, you’d make so much unlawful you’d be a laughing stock in days.

    Do we know that ET is male?
    Agreed, though, this stuff is bonkers.
    ET phone homo!

    :lol:
  • ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    🇨🇳 ambassador to 🇫🇷, when asked if Crimea is 🇺🇦:

    The former Soviet republics like Ukraine have “no effective status in international law”, they are “not sovereign states”.

    What did Macron achieve in Beijing, exactly?…

    https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1649604444558970883

    Music to Putin's ears. Kazakhstan probably next on the list.
    With Putin and who’s army?
    I'd agree but the conditions are there - large ethnic Russian population, instability plus harder to get weapons to Kazakhstan from the West.
    If Mongolia is protected by its ties to Russia, Kazakhstan is protected by its ties to China. It's one of their major sources of oil.

    Which makes the ambassador's remarks doubly stupid, of course.
    Indeed.

    It might be hard in practice though for China to rebuke Russia and I'm not sure it would want to be too negative. It would want Russia on its side and it may think a Russia + Kazakhstan is a price worth paying.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,722
    On topic.

    Looking at the graph in the header, half of the 2019 LD gain may perhaps be regarded as a Corbyn-disgust transfer from Labour as it was soon after he got the party declared institutionally racist, and a small % is because PC & the Greens stood down to give their votes to the LDs. * That would be worth perhaps a couple of %.

    If Lab get their votes back (seems reasonable since Sir Keir has basically dealt with the racism thing), then LDs need perhaps another 20% of the votes.

    Will the Raab reaction give them that 20%?

    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_to_Remain
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,611
    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    To me, the magnificent thing about cooking is that even the simplest dishes are utterly personal.

    Take scrambled eggs - no 2 people cook them the same. There is no one right way, either…..
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,914

    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    To me, the magnificent thing about cooking is that even the simplest dishes are utterly personal.

    Take scrambled eggs - no 2 people cook them the same. There is no one right way, either…..
    Yes there is. My way.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,722
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    All the chefs I know HATE Gordon Ramsey and his crap TV shows.
    Masterchef here in Britain is not a Gordon Ramsay programme, and is more about cooking than "tension" than the American and Australian versions which I find unwatchable. We also have Masterchef: the Professionals which has (iirc) chalked up a couple of Michelin stars among former contestants.
    My flint knapping agent also represents the guy who came up with the format for Masterchef. A British invention successfully exported to dozens of countries (not just USA and Oz). Every time any episode of Masterchef Thailand or Masterchef Brazil is made and broadcast anywhere in the world, he gets a chunk of money

    Unsurprisingly, he is spectacularly wealthy. And quite debauched. He’s probably good friends with Nick Palmer
    The best part of Masterchef is trying the skills' tests at home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,351
    edited April 2023
    Note how Esher and Walton peaked in Conservative voteshare under Cameron but in 2019 the Conservatives got no higher a voteshare there than Major did in 1997.

    That confirms that while Boris did have real appeal with the working class and lower middle classes and Leavers, hence his landslide win in 2019, in posh, wealthy, highly educated Remain seats his appeal was much less acute. That does therefore offer some hope to Raab. For while the polling shows Rishi has clearly lost the Redwall seats back to Starmer Labour he is more popular amongst Remainers and those who voted LD in 2019 than Boris was
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,256

    biggles said:

    That Kansas legislation quoted above is bonkers.

    Is this what legal text looks like in the USA? Our Parliamentary Counsel would have a fit.

    Setting aside the fact that I think trying to ban drag is silly, their attempt at a definition is so broad as to be unenforceable.

    “2) "drag performance" means a performance in which one or more performers:

    (A) Exhibits a gender identity that is different from the performer's gender assigned at birth using clothing, makeup or other accessories that are traditionally worn by members of and are meant to exaggerate the gender identity of the performer's opposite sex; and

    (B) sings, lip-synchs, dances or otherwise performs before an audience of at least two
    persons for entertainment, whether performed for payment or not”.

    That covers the Pythons. That covers most farces on stage. That covers the film ET (where he tries lipstick and a dress).

    If enacted, you’d make so much unlawful you’d be a laughing stock in days.

    Do we know that ET is male?
    Agreed, though, this stuff is bonkers.
    I'd better watch out when playing Just Dance with the kids for shared entertainment. I love a good Macarena or other girly dance. That's the point isn't it?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,582
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    All the chefs I know HATE Gordon Ramsey and his crap TV shows.
    Masterchef here in Britain is not a Gordon Ramsay programme, and is more about cooking than "tension" than the American and Australian versions which I find unwatchable. We also have Masterchef: the Professionals which has (iirc) chalked up a couple of Michelin stars among former contestants.
    My flint knapping agent also represents the guy who came up with the format for Masterchef. A British invention successfully exported to dozens of countries (not just USA and Oz). Every time any episode of Masterchef Thailand or Masterchef Brazil is made and broadcast anywhere in the world, he gets a chunk of money

    Unsurprisingly, he is spectacularly wealthy. And quite debauched. He’s probably good friends with Nick Palmer
    The best part of Masterchef is trying the skills' tests at home.
    Isn't he the guy in Halo??
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,138

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sad to hear of the passing of Dame Edna Everage. (Even more baffled that US politics has gotten to the point where an act like Dame Edna is the greatest threat facing society today, according to many Republican politicians.)

    Did Dame Edna ever do a 'Transgender Revenge Day' with a picture of an AR-15 on it? Must have missed that one.
    What proportion of the individuals in the US who fetishize gun violence would be drag queens iyo?
    Haven't run the percentages - this one does have over 7K followers though: https://www.facebook.com/triggerwarninggunclub/

    BTW, have we had the manifesto published yet of the transgender shooter who shot dead children and teachers in Tennessee on Transgender Revenge Day?
    A) It wasn't on Transgender Revenge Day
    B) Transgender Revenge Day doesn't exist - you might be thinking of this https://www.newsweek.com/trans-day-vengeance-canceled-threats-washington-dc-1791705
    C) according to https://fox17.com/news/local/nashville-tennessee-lawmaker-covenant-school-shooter-manifesto-described-as-a-blueprint-for-heinous-things-audrey-hale-crime-politics-usa-news the "manifesto" hasn't been released and might not be. But unless you know that the person being apparently trans is relevant to the shooting why mention it?

    The only thing we know for sure is that most murders are committed by a certain minority of the population - men.
    Sorry vengeance, not revenge - there is a huge difference :smile: And it was four days before the planned Day - even more proof it wasn't connected :smiley:

    As for "But unless you know that the person being apparently trans is relevant to the shooting why mention it? " it doesn't seem to stop every shooting of someone non-white by someone white as automatically being labelled a hate crime.

    Remarkable how we can see divine so much into the intentions of one set of shooters and not the other.

    I'm not in favour of every shooting of someone non-white by someone white as automatically being labelled a hate crime, are you?
    We agree on something. But there are quite a few on the non-right who are very keen on such a labelling.
    Always nice to find a point of agreement!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,778

    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    To me, the magnificent thing about cooking is that even the simplest dishes are utterly personal.

    Take scrambled eggs - no 2 people cook them the same. There is no one right way, either…..
    Scrambled eggs: you need the best possible fresh eggs, at room temperature (not from the fridge!) a big dab of quality butter, and that is it. You don’t need cream or milk or any of that malarkey if the eggs are good enough, with rich orange yolks. Serve when still runny as they will harden as you eat

    Cracked black kampot pepper and Anglesey sea salt as flavoring

    Superb with toasted borough sourdough. Maybe just a shaving of fresh chives on top if you want fancy-dan stuff

    I like all the smoked salmon and avocado and sriracha soy sauce stuff but honestly simplicity is probably best
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,351

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    There is no way Trump picks RDS as his VP nominee now if he wins the GOP nomination again, he literally despises the man.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,611

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    All the chefs I know HATE Gordon Ramsey and his crap TV shows.
    Masterchef here in Britain is not a Gordon Ramsay programme, and is more about cooking than "tension" than the American and Australian versions which I find unwatchable. We also have Masterchef: the Professionals which has (iirc) chalked up a couple of Michelin stars among former contestants.
    My flint knapping agent also represents the guy who came up with the format for Masterchef. A British invention successfully exported to dozens of countries (not just USA and Oz). Every time any episode of Masterchef Thailand or Masterchef Brazil is made and broadcast anywhere in the world, he gets a chunk of money

    Unsurprisingly, he is spectacularly wealthy. And quite debauched. He’s probably good friends with Nick Palmer
    The best part of Masterchef is trying the skills' tests at home.
    Isn't he the guy in Halo??
    Detonating an entire star system may not be the best way to scramble some eggs.

    But no one in the known universe is stupid enough to tell the Master Chief that….
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,582
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    There is no way Trump picks RDS as his VP nominee now if he wins the GOP nomination again, he literally despises the man.
    Blair despised Brown :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809

    This Sunday, for the first time in the London Marathon’s history, three categories will cross the finish line: men, women and a special group for self-absorbed whingers who identify as “non-binary”. The new division was added after a consultation last year. Tellingly, sexed categories have been retained for the Elite, Championship and Good For Age races.…

    The creation of a non-binary category goes against the most basic rules of fair competition, effectively offering males two categories in which they can enjoy fair competition, whilst females have only one.


    https://thecritic.co.uk/thousands-of-steps-backwards/

    (I came here to comment on Picard, but as Casino hasn't bloody seen it yet, I have to focus on other things)

    * The female category is open to women who identify as binary
    * The non-binary category is open to women who identify as non-binary and men who identify as non-binary
    * The male category is open to men who identify as binary

    If I had to design a fair competition, I'd do it like this. I presume your objection derives from a belief that only women should ever compete with women, but consider this: if women were banned from the non-binary category, you would object.

    The thrust of the gender critical movement is that trans people (including non-binary in the definition for the moment) should compete in categories dependent on their birth sex. The marathon categories would seem to meet that definition. So this appears to be a non-problem problem.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,582
    viewcode said:

    This Sunday, for the first time in the London Marathon’s history, three categories will cross the finish line: men, women and a special group for self-absorbed whingers who identify as “non-binary”. The new division was added after a consultation last year. Tellingly, sexed categories have been retained for the Elite, Championship and Good For Age races.…

    The creation of a non-binary category goes against the most basic rules of fair competition, effectively offering males two categories in which they can enjoy fair competition, whilst females have only one.


    https://thecritic.co.uk/thousands-of-steps-backwards/

    (I came here to comment on Picard, but as Casino hasn't bloody seen it yet, I have to focus on other things)

    * The female category is open to women who identify as binary
    * The non-binary category is open to women who identify as non-binary and men who identify as non-binary
    * The male category is open to men who identify as binary

    If I had to design a fair competition, I'd do it like this. I presume your objection derives from a belief that only women should ever compete with women, but consider this: if women were banned from the non-binary category, you would object.

    The thrust of the gender critical movement is that trans people (including non-binary in the definition for the moment) should compete in categories dependent on their birth sex. The marathon categories would seem to meet that definition. So this appears to be a non-problem problem.
    He said "enjoy FAIR competition" (my emphasis).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809

    viewcode said:

    Sad to hear of the passing of Dame Edna Everage. (Even more baffled that US politics has gotten to the point where an act like Dame Edna is the greatest threat facing society today, according to many Republican politicians.)

    It's a category error to compare comedy drag acts like Dame Edna or Lily Savage with the current porn-adjacent movement.
    All together now: PB has no memory

    Paul O'Grady/Lily Savage would have disagreed, vehemently and obscenely, with that. Saying today's drag scene is more obscene than that of the 1960s/70s is silly, and when AIDS hit in the 80's it didn't help. We forget how scabrous, badly decorated, damp ridden and wildly unpleasant were public spaces and public entertainment were n the post-war period, and think that the sensitivities of our warm, disabled friendly, microaggression-afeared double-glazed world reflect those of the past. They do not.
    This is what O'Grady had to say about it:

    “In my day we had the likes of Phil Starr, who was a glorious comedian… we had Marc Fleming, Auntie Flo, Mrs Shufflewick. We had great comedians in drag.

    “This new brigade who just parade around going, sashay, shantay – that’s not drag to me.”

    O’Grady drew a distinction between the on-the-night performance that is drag, and the full-characterisation that typifies the Drag Race stars.

    “Drag is doing an act. That’s dressing up. That [Drag Race] is transvestism,” O’Grady said.

    “Drag is an act, where you get up, you do your act, you get changed and you go home – you don’t parade round the streets doing all this business.”

    “I’ve no interest in it whatsoever, none at all.”

    When it was put to him that Drag Race had brought drag to a new generation and out in the open, O’Grady said: “I don’t like that.

    “I always believed Lily Savage belonged in a pub, especially a gay bar, where you could rant and rave.”
    That quote would not support your characterisation of "porn-adjacent", which was the point I thought you were making. However my point, which that drag in the 2020s is *far* more family-friendly than it's 20th century antecedents still stands. As does my ancillary point, which was we forget what life was like in the Cold War world.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,582
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:

    🇨🇳 ambassador to 🇫🇷, when asked if Crimea is 🇺🇦:

    The former Soviet republics like Ukraine have “no effective status in international law”, they are “not sovereign states”.

    What did Macron achieve in Beijing, exactly?…

    https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1649604444558970883

    I’d be a tad worried if I was a central Asian country near China.
    I would have thought it would actually be quite a tough ask for China to invade any country to its west. The supply lines are poor and stretched thin. To the south, Tibet isn't an easy place to manoeuvre armies - to the north, Xinjiang is currently absorbing most of the soldiers in it to keep Xi's genocidal mania fed.

    China will probably not try and invade Vietnam again, and North Korea is its ally. Taiwan it's already trying to browbeat into joining the mainland.

    Mongolia might perhaps be a bit perturbed.
    Ironically, Mongolia is probably protected by having Russia as a neighbour who historically has influenced its affairs. A Chinese takeover of Mongolia might strain relations too much, especially given Russian fears over Siberia going Chinese.
    China basically owns Mongolia anyway. Mongolia has got rather wealthy very quickly by exporting vast mineral wealth to China. It is essentially an economic protectorate of Beijing. Russian influence is minimal in comparison (apart from Russian energy). China takes 90% of Mongolian exports
    Unlike China or Russia, Mongolia (to their credit) is a democracy.

    https://freedomhouse.org/country/mongolia/freedom-world/2022
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170
    Yorkshire are going to win this, aren't they?

    I was hoping they would lose and stay rooted firmly to the bottom where they belong,
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    edited April 2023
    Right, dragging my arse back to the salient point of Star Trek for the moment and witholding spoilers, let's go thru it.

    * The ship design in this series has been the best since Enterprise. Getting Dave Blass, Doug Drexler etc in/back to do the designs was brilliant, and The Duderstadt and Constitution-II designs were similarly brilliant. The wounded Intrepid recovering and menacing was the best hot spaceship action since TWOK, and should go on PornHub.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    There is no way Trump picks RDS as his VP nominee now if he wins the GOP nomination again, he literally despises the man.
    Didn't stop Reagan picking H Bush in 1980. Or Eisenhower choosing Nixon.

    Equally, neither of them were small-cocked egomaniacs with a brain inversely related in size to their arrogance.

    And with all their faults, neither Nixon nor GHB were remotely as awful as DeSantis.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,368
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sad to hear of the passing of Dame Edna Everage. (Even more baffled that US politics has gotten to the point where an act like Dame Edna is the greatest threat facing society today, according to many Republican politicians.)

    It's a category error to compare comedy drag acts like Dame Edna or Lily Savage with the current porn-adjacent movement.
    All together now: PB has no memory

    Paul O'Grady/Lily Savage would have disagreed, vehemently and obscenely, with that. Saying today's drag scene is more obscene than that of the 1960s/70s is silly, and when AIDS hit in the 80's it didn't help. We forget how scabrous, badly decorated, damp ridden and wildly unpleasant were public spaces and public entertainment were n the post-war period, and think that the sensitivities of our warm, disabled friendly, microaggression-afeared double-glazed world reflect those of the past. They do not.
    This is what O'Grady had to say about it:

    “In my day we had the likes of Phil Starr, who was a glorious comedian… we had Marc Fleming, Auntie Flo, Mrs Shufflewick. We had great comedians in drag.

    “This new brigade who just parade around going, sashay, shantay – that’s not drag to me.”

    O’Grady drew a distinction between the on-the-night performance that is drag, and the full-characterisation that typifies the Drag Race stars.

    “Drag is doing an act. That’s dressing up. That [Drag Race] is transvestism,” O’Grady said.

    “Drag is an act, where you get up, you do your act, you get changed and you go home – you don’t parade round the streets doing all this business.”

    “I’ve no interest in it whatsoever, none at all.”

    When it was put to him that Drag Race had brought drag to a new generation and out in the open, O’Grady said: “I don’t like that.

    “I always believed Lily Savage belonged in a pub, especially a gay bar, where you could rant and rave.”
    That quote would not support your characterisation of "porn-adjacent", which was the point I thought you were making. However my point, which that drag in the 2020s is *far* more family-friendly than it's 20th century antecedents still stands. As does my ancillary point, which was we forget what life was like in the Cold War world.
    It depends what you mean by family-friendly.

    The paradox of modern culture is that it is simultaneously more censorious and more sexualised. We like to imagine we are more progressive than in previous decades, but a latter-day Lily Savage couldn't get away with telling the same jokes on mainstream prime time TV these days.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,582
    viewcode said:

    Right, dragging my arse back to the salient point of Star Trek for the moment and witholding spoilers, let's go thru it.

    * The ship design in this series has been the best since Enterprise. Getting Dave Blass, Doug Drexler etc in/back to do the designs was brilliant, and The Duderstadt and Constitution-II designs were similarly brilliant. The wounded Intrepid recovering and menacing was the best hot spaceship action since TWOK, and should go on PornHub.

    You're into Trans-porter beams, I take it :lol:
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2023
    Wrexham 0 - 1 Boreham Wood (43 seconds)

    That wasn’t in the script….
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    Regarding final paragraph above, the main legal impediment to a Trump-DeSantis (or visa versa) ticket, is NOT the Florida state law you cite, requiring an officeholder to step down when running for another office. Which as noted, could be readily circumvented.

    Instead, the big issue (so to speak) is the provision of US Constitution, that prohibits Electors from any state, from voting for more than one candidate for POTUS and VP from their own state.

    Thus, if GOP nominated ticket of Trump-DeSantis, which subsequently won the popular vote in Florida, and thus the Sunshine State's 30 EVs, then these electors could vote for EITHER Trump for President or DeSantis for Vice President, but NOT for both.

    Which means that, in a close election (what are odds of THAT?) where the national difference between the Dem & Rep tickets was LESS than 30 EVs, that the result could be the election of a Republican POTUS and a Democratic Veep.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    Cont...

    * It has been really nice to see the old cast, but they have aged. PatStew and McFadden are too old. Sirtis is aging out, and Spiner looks like Herbert The Pervert. Forbes is still good but fillers etc make her look too different. Russ and Ryan still look good but are noticeably older. Only Frakes, Burton and arguably Dorn still look good and impressive
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    Regarding final paragraph above, the main legal impediment to a Trump-DeSantis (or visa versa) ticket, is NOT the Florida state law you cite, requiring an officeholder to step down when running for another office. Which as noted, could be readily circumvented.

    Instead, the big issue (so to speak) is the provision of US Constitution, that prohibits Electors from any state, from voting for more than one candidate for POTUS and VP from their own state.

    Thus, if GOP nominated ticket of Trump-DeSantis, which subsequently won the popular vote in Florida, and thus the Sunshine State's 30 EVs, then these electors could vote for EITHER Trump for President or DeSantis for Vice President, but NOT for both.

    Which means that, in a close election (what are odds of THAT?) where the national difference between the Dem & Rep tickets was LESS than 30 EVs, that the result could be the election of a Republican POTUS and a Democratic Veep.

    Couldn't Trump reregister in New York? Or once you have registered in one state, that's it, it's your state from then on?

    I think it's a moot point, as it won't happen, but I'm asking out of interest. I seem to remember Cheney moved his registration from Texas to Montana for a similar reason, but that was before his election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    Cont...

    New showrunner Terry Natalia's is really milking it, with M'talas Prime and the Uss New Jersey ncc-1975 matching his date and place of birth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,351
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    There is no way Trump picks RDS as his VP nominee now if he wins the GOP nomination again, he literally despises the man.
    Didn't stop Reagan picking H Bush in 1980. Or Eisenhower choosing Nixon.

    Equally, neither of them were small-cocked egomaniacs with a brain inversely related in size to their arrogance.

    And with all their faults, neither Nixon nor GHB were remotely as awful as DeSantis.
    Reagan didn't despise Bush 41 the way Trump now loathes DeSantis and Nixon wasn't a rival to IKE in the 1952 GOP primaries.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170
    viewcode said:

    Cont...

    * It has been really nice to see the old cast, but they have aged. PatStew and McFadden are too old. Sirtis is aging out, and Spiner looks like Herbert The Pervert. Forbes is still good but fillers etc make her look too different. Russ and Ryan still look good but are noticeably older. Only Frakes, Burton and arguably Dorn still look good and impressive

    Thing that annoyed me about that episode? It ended about six different times. And then cut to something else.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,960
    Discussions on the previous thread reminded me of two columns by Mitch Daniels.

    From the most recent: "A pandemic rages uncontrolled, a damaging and even deadly plague sweeping across a wide swath of society. The scientific evidence of its dangers is massive and irrefutable. Its worst harm is inflicted on the young, who are the most vulnerable to its contagion, and whose injuries may well prove irreversible with time.
    . . .
    In the current pandemic, we are committing the opposite mistake. As social media — “antisocial media” would be more accurate — permeates society, wreaking proven, ruinous damage on the emotional health of children, the trust of Americans in their institutions, the ability of those institutions to act against daunting national challenges, even the ability to sort truth from often malicious fiction, we are doing … nothing."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/17/social-media-contagion/

    I wouldn't agree completely with that "nothing", because Utah just passed a law limiting screen time for children, and other American states are beginning to think about that, and similar measures.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    Cont...

    The trekyards guys got up and clapped, and it was well deserved, throwing the Discovery designs in the bin and ignoring them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    Cont...

    I want the Enterprise-F. I am not getting the Enterprise-F. I am vexed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    All the chefs I know HATE Gordon Ramsey and his crap TV shows.
    What has that to do with Masterchef ?
    Sorry, my mistake. No doubt reflecting my dislike of just about ALL these "reality" TV fancy "cooking" shows.

    With sole exception of "Great British Baking Show" back when Mary Berry was the main star. The rest make me wanna barf.
    Bake Off remains the gold standard. The one slight risk to it is if Paul Hollywood gets too big for his boots and thinks he can go solo. He's good but he's not quite as good as he thinks imho.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,734
    HYUFD said:

    Note how Esher and Walton peaked in Conservative voteshare under Cameron but in 2019 the Conservatives got no higher a voteshare there than Major did in 1997.

    That confirms that while Boris did have real appeal with the working class and lower middle classes and Leavers, hence his landslide win in 2019, in posh, wealthy, highly educated Remain seats his appeal was much less acute. That does therefore offer some hope to Raab. For while the polling shows Rishi has clearly lost the Redwall seats back to Starmer Labour he is more popular amongst Remainers and those who voted LD in 2019 than Boris was

    Interesting. The Boris factor is another reason why I suspect the Scottish Tories will do better, relatively, than their southern counterparts. Boris was a real drag on their vote in 2019. (The other reason, of course, is that their main opponent is the SNP who let's say, seem to be performing sub-optimally at the moment and, certainly, compared to 2019.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    Cont...

    For the Intrepid recovery moment, search for "angry spaceship" on YouTube. I will post it later
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    Cont...

    Why were Geordie's wife not mentioned? Why was Laris ignored after the first episode. Where was Troi's daughter?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,866
    @viewcode can you keep the spoilers to a single comment so they can be more easily avoided? :D
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sad to hear of the passing of Dame Edna Everage. (Even more baffled that US politics has gotten to the point where an act like Dame Edna is the greatest threat facing society today, according to many Republican politicians.)

    It's a category error to compare comedy drag acts like Dame Edna or Lily Savage with the current porn-adjacent movement.
    All together now: PB has no memory

    Paul O'Grady/Lily Savage would have disagreed, vehemently and obscenely, with that. Saying today's drag scene is more obscene than that of the 1960s/70s is silly, and when AIDS hit in the 80's it didn't help. We forget how scabrous, badly decorated, damp ridden and wildly unpleasant were public spaces and public entertainment were n the post-war period, and think that the sensitivities of our warm, disabled friendly, microaggression-afeared double-glazed world reflect those of the past. They do not.
    This is what O'Grady had to say about it:

    “In my day we had the likes of Phil Starr, who was a glorious comedian… we had Marc Fleming, Auntie Flo, Mrs Shufflewick. We had great comedians in drag.

    “This new brigade who just parade around going, sashay, shantay – that’s not drag to me.”

    O’Grady drew a distinction between the on-the-night performance that is drag, and the full-characterisation that typifies the Drag Race stars.

    “Drag is doing an act. That’s dressing up. That [Drag Race] is transvestism,” O’Grady said.

    “Drag is an act, where you get up, you do your act, you get changed and you go home – you don’t parade round the streets doing all this business.”

    “I’ve no interest in it whatsoever, none at all.”

    When it was put to him that Drag Race had brought drag to a new generation and out in the open, O’Grady said: “I don’t like that.

    “I always believed Lily Savage belonged in a pub, especially a gay bar, where you could rant and rave.”
    That quote would not support your characterisation of "porn-adjacent", which was the point I thought you were making. However my point, which that drag in the 2020s is *far* more family-friendly than it's 20th century antecedents still stands. As does my ancillary point, which was we forget what life was like in the Cold War world.
    It depends what you mean by family-friendly.

    The paradox of modern culture is that it is simultaneously more censorious and more sexualised. We like to imagine we are more progressive than in previous decades, but a latter-day Lily Savage couldn't get away with telling the same jokes on mainstream prime time TV these days.
    And the late Dame Edna would be banned - or get arrested - in Tennessee. And other states where GOP (Grifters On Parade) has also latched onto the Trans-Woke Menace of Drag for political fun and profit.

    OR risk the venue being vandalized . . . as happened this month in Washington State:

    Tri-Cities Herald - Richland restaurant hosting drag shows threatened with letter from ‘AR-15 Die St.’

    The FBI, Richland police and other federal agents are investigating a threatening letter sent to a Tri-Cities restaurant this week. Emerald of Siam manager Tim Thornton told the Herald they received a letter in the U.S. mail on Monday, just one day after the restaurant hosted an all-ages, Easter-themed drag brunch, with threats. A photo he took and posted on Facebook shows the envelope with a return address made out to “Josh Shooter” at “AR-15 Die St.” in Pasco, WA. The letter was postmarked and in their mailbox.

    . . . Richland Police Commander Damon Jansen confirmed his department is conducting an investigation into the threat.

    “No one has been identified at this time. I do not have any other details due to the ongoing investigation,” he wrote in an email.

    And federal law enforcement agencies also generally do not discuss ongoing investigations. Threatening someone in a letter sent by the U.S. Postal Service is a federal crime, according to the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, though penalties depend on the severity of the crime. The culprit could face up to five years in a federal prison, plus fines, for delivering a letter that includes general threats of kidnapping or injury.

    Despite recent negative comments and threats . . . the restaurant and club will stay open and they plan to put extra precautions in place to keep staff and customers safe.

    Tensions have risen the last couple weeks after protesters picketed outside two Tri-Cities clubs over their all-ages drag shows. That despite the fact the businesses have been hosting the events for years, if not more than a decade. Drag shows promoted for all ages do not include any explicit content, stripping, swearing or provocative dancing.

    But Tri-City events have recently caught the ire of conservative critics, who say the events are “grooming” children for sexual deviancy.

    https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/local/article274210090.html
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,960
    The second column by Daniels I would recommend was written in February:
    "It will be exponentially harder for humans to fly safely to Mars, establish a sustained presence and survive to return to Earth. To do so, our commission concluded, would require making the goal a central, single-minded priority of the U.S. space program; a relentless, unswerving multi-decade commitment to a pre-agreed path to reach the goal; and constant investments in amounts well above the rate of inflation. American democracy is not very good at any of those things.

    Our system affords us, thank goodness, a chance to change national direction every two years, and presidential leadership quadrennially. That competitiveness and responsiveness enable the quick correction of mistakes and the flexibility to navigate changed circumstances. What it doesn’t excel at is sustaining long-term projects of distant or indirect benefit to the voting public."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-put-a-man-on-the-moon-but-it-might-be-harder-to-do-the-same-on-mars/2021/02/25/5d85caba-76e3-11eb-9537-496158cc5fd9_story.html

    Again, there are parts that I disagree with in that column, starting with the first sentence quoted.

    But I think his general point in the second paragraph is absolutely right and, if anything, has become more true in recent years, here in the United States.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Daniels

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,266

    I’m in Salisbury. Haven’t stocked up with beer yet, but have found time to get another Golding Blue Plaque


    I thought you were going on a boat to the continent. Must have mis-read your previous posts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,351

    HYUFD said:

    Note how Esher and Walton peaked in Conservative voteshare under Cameron but in 2019 the Conservatives got no higher a voteshare there than Major did in 1997.

    That confirms that while Boris did have real appeal with the working class and lower middle classes and Leavers, hence his landslide win in 2019, in posh, wealthy, highly educated Remain seats his appeal was much less acute. That does therefore offer some hope to Raab. For while the polling shows Rishi has clearly lost the Redwall seats back to Starmer Labour he is more popular amongst Remainers and those who voted LD in 2019 than Boris was

    Interesting. The Boris factor is another reason why I suspect the Scottish Tories will do better, relatively, than their southern counterparts. Boris was a real drag on their vote in 2019. (The other reason, of course, is that their main opponent is the SNP who let's say, seem to be performing sub-optimally at the moment and, certainly, compared to 2019.)
    Yes, there will be a big swing to Labour since 2019 in Leave seats at the next general election but a much lower swing to Labour and the LDs in Remain seats. In Scotland as you say the Conservatives might even pick up a few seats from the SNP
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2023
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    Regarding final paragraph above, the main legal impediment to a Trump-DeSantis (or visa versa) ticket, is NOT the Florida state law you cite, requiring an officeholder to step down when running for another office. Which as noted, could be readily circumvented.

    Instead, the big issue (so to speak) is the provision of US Constitution, that prohibits Electors from any state, from voting for more than one candidate for POTUS and VP from their own state.

    Thus, if GOP nominated ticket of Trump-DeSantis, which subsequently won the popular vote in Florida, and thus the Sunshine State's 30 EVs, then these electors could vote for EITHER Trump for President or DeSantis for Vice President, but NOT for both.

    Which means that, in a close election (what are odds of THAT?) where the national difference between the Dem & Rep tickets was LESS than 30 EVs, that the result could be the election of a Republican POTUS and a Democratic Veep.

    Couldn't Trump reregister in New York? Or once you have registered in one state, that's it, it's your state from then on?

    I think it's a moot point, as it won't happen, but I'm asking out of interest. I seem to remember Cheney moved his registration from Texas to Montana for a similar reason, but that was before his election.
    Yes, Trump could change is legal domicile for voting purposes, by registering at a new, non-Florida address. OR DeSantis could do so.

    Would NOT bet on either happening. Even with such unconventional, unpredictable candidates.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    Cont...

    For the Intrepid recovery moment, search for "angry spaceship" on YouTube. I will post it later

    For a moment there, thought you'd just violated OGH's Prime PB Directive!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170

    HYUFD said:

    Note how Esher and Walton peaked in Conservative voteshare under Cameron but in 2019 the Conservatives got no higher a voteshare there than Major did in 1997.

    That confirms that while Boris did have real appeal with the working class and lower middle classes and Leavers, hence his landslide win in 2019, in posh, wealthy, highly educated Remain seats his appeal was much less acute. That does therefore offer some hope to Raab. For while the polling shows Rishi has clearly lost the Redwall seats back to Starmer Labour he is more popular amongst Remainers and those who voted LD in 2019 than Boris was

    Interesting. The Boris factor is another reason why I suspect the Scottish Tories will do better, relatively, than their southern counterparts. Boris was a real drag on their vote in 2019. (The other reason, of course, is that their main opponent is the SNP who let's say, seem to be performing sub-optimally at the moment and, certainly, compared to 2019.)
    They look ferry silly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,173

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sad to hear of the passing of Dame Edna Everage. (Even more baffled that US politics has gotten to the point where an act like Dame Edna is the greatest threat facing society today, according to many Republican politicians.)

    It's a category error to compare comedy drag acts like Dame Edna or Lily Savage with the current porn-adjacent movement.
    All together now: PB has no memory

    Paul O'Grady/Lily Savage would have disagreed, vehemently and obscenely, with that. Saying today's drag scene is more obscene than that of the 1960s/70s is silly, and when AIDS hit in the 80's it didn't help. We forget how scabrous, badly decorated, damp ridden and wildly unpleasant were public spaces and public entertainment were n the post-war period, and think that the sensitivities of our warm, disabled friendly, microaggression-afeared double-glazed world reflect those of the past. They do not.
    This is what O'Grady had to say about it:

    “In my day we had the likes of Phil Starr, who was a glorious comedian… we had Marc Fleming, Auntie Flo, Mrs Shufflewick. We had great comedians in drag.

    “This new brigade who just parade around going, sashay, shantay – that’s not drag to me.”

    O’Grady drew a distinction between the on-the-night performance that is drag, and the full-characterisation that typifies the Drag Race stars.

    “Drag is doing an act. That’s dressing up. That [Drag Race] is transvestism,” O’Grady said.

    “Drag is an act, where you get up, you do your act, you get changed and you go home – you don’t parade round the streets doing all this business.”

    “I’ve no interest in it whatsoever, none at all.”

    When it was put to him that Drag Race had brought drag to a new generation and out in the open, O’Grady said: “I don’t like that.

    “I always believed Lily Savage belonged in a pub, especially a gay bar, where you could rant and rave.”
    That quote would not support your characterisation of "porn-adjacent", which was the point I thought you were making. However my point, which that drag in the 2020s is *far* more family-friendly than it's 20th century antecedents still stands. As does my ancillary point, which was we forget what life was like in the Cold War world.
    It depends what you mean by family-friendly.

    The paradox of modern culture is that it is simultaneously more censorious and more sexualised. We like to imagine we are more progressive than in previous decades, but a latter-day Lily Savage couldn't get away with telling the same jokes on mainstream prime time TV these days.
    Round the Horne was pure, unmitigated, and very funny, filth, back in the day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sad to hear of the passing of Dame Edna Everage. (Even more baffled that US politics has gotten to the point where an act like Dame Edna is the greatest threat facing society today, according to many Republican politicians.)

    It's a category error to compare comedy drag acts like Dame Edna or Lily Savage with the current porn-adjacent movement.
    All together now: PB has no memory

    Paul O'Grady/Lily Savage would have disagreed, vehemently and obscenely, with that. Saying today's drag scene is more obscene than that of the 1960s/70s is silly, and when AIDS hit in the 80's it didn't help. We forget how scabrous, badly decorated, damp ridden and wildly unpleasant were public spaces and public entertainment were n the post-war period, and think that the sensitivities of our warm, disabled friendly, microaggression-afeared double-glazed world reflect those of the past. They do not.
    This is what O'Grady had to say about it:

    “In my day we had the likes of Phil Starr, who was a glorious comedian… we had Marc Fleming, Auntie Flo, Mrs Shufflewick. We had great comedians in drag.

    “This new brigade who just parade around going, sashay, shantay – that’s not drag to me.”

    O’Grady drew a distinction between the on-the-night performance that is drag, and the full-characterisation that typifies the Drag Race stars.

    “Drag is doing an act. That’s dressing up. That [Drag Race] is transvestism,” O’Grady said.

    “Drag is an act, where you get up, you do your act, you get changed and you go home – you don’t parade round the streets doing all this business.”

    “I’ve no interest in it whatsoever, none at all.”

    When it was put to him that Drag Race had brought drag to a new generation and out in the open, O’Grady said: “I don’t like that.

    “I always believed Lily Savage belonged in a pub, especially a gay bar, where you could rant and rave.”
    That quote would not support your characterisation of "porn-adjacent", which was the point I thought you were making. However my point, which that drag in the 2020s is *far* more family-friendly than it's 20th century antecedents still stands. As does my ancillary point, which was we forget what life was like in the Cold War world.
    It depends what you mean by family-friendly.

    The paradox of modern culture is that it is simultaneously more censorious and more sexualised. We like to imagine we are more progressive than in previous decades, but a latter-day Lily Savage couldn't get away with telling the same jokes on mainstream prime time TV these days.
    Round the Horne was pure, unmitigated, and very funny, filth, back in the day.
    Now it's merely Beyond our Ken.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,582
    ydoethur said:

    Yorkshire are going to win this, aren't they?

    I was hoping they would lose and stay rooted firmly to the bottom where they belong,

    ICYMI, there was an actual hat-trick in the FA Cup semi-final just now. An Algerian player, Mahrez, scored 3 goals for Manchester City against Sheffield United.

    Riyad Mahrez scored the first ever FA Cup semi-final hat-trick at Wembley, and first in the semi-final of the competition overall since Alex Dawson in 1958 (Man Utd against Fulham).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,266
    "What was the result in Esher and Walton at the 2019 UK general election?"

    "In the 2019 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate Dominic Raab was elected as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Esher and Walton. He received 31,132 votes, which was 56.3% of the total votes cast in the constituency. The second-placed candidate was the Liberal Democrat Monica Harding, who received 16,086 votes (29.1% of the vote). The Labour Party candidate came in third with 5,582 votes (10.1% of the vote), followed by the Green Party candidate with 1,604 votes (2.9% of the vote) and the UKIP candidate with 647 votes (1.2% of the vote)."

    https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,173

    HYUFD said:

    Note how Esher and Walton peaked in Conservative voteshare under Cameron but in 2019 the Conservatives got no higher a voteshare there than Major did in 1997.

    That confirms that while Boris did have real appeal with the working class and lower middle classes and Leavers, hence his landslide win in 2019, in posh, wealthy, highly educated Remain seats his appeal was much less acute. That does therefore offer some hope to Raab. For while the polling shows Rishi has clearly lost the Redwall seats back to Starmer Labour he is more popular amongst Remainers and those who voted LD in 2019 than Boris was

    Interesting. The Boris factor is another reason why I suspect the Scottish Tories will do better, relatively, than their southern counterparts. Boris was a real drag on their vote in 2019. (The other reason, of course, is that their main opponent is the SNP who let's say, seem to be performing sub-optimally at the moment and, certainly, compared to 2019.)
    The Conservatives are only down about 6% in Scotland, compared to 15% nationally.

    But, in part, that’s due to their being a floor of 15% of Scots who vote Conservative.

    If the Conservative vote share holds up better than the SNP vote share, the SCons will gain.

    The Conservative vote is efficiently distributed in Scotland, being concentrated in the Borders, and SNP-Con marginals.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170

    ydoethur said:

    Yorkshire are going to win this, aren't they?

    I was hoping they would lose and stay rooted firmly to the bottom where they belong,

    ICYMI, there was an actual hat-trick in the FA Cup semi-final just now.
    Tom Price expanding his repertoire?
  • kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    Regarding final paragraph above, the main legal impediment to a Trump-DeSantis (or visa versa) ticket, is NOT the Florida state law you cite, requiring an officeholder to step down when running for another office. Which as noted, could be readily circumvented.

    Instead, the big issue (so to speak) is the provision of US Constitution, that prohibits Electors from any state, from voting for more than one candidate for POTUS and VP from their own state.

    Thus, if GOP nominated ticket of Trump-DeSantis, which subsequently won the popular vote in Florida, and thus the Sunshine State's 30 EVs, then these electors could vote for EITHER Trump for President or DeSantis for Vice President, but NOT for both.

    Which means that, in a close election (what are odds of THAT?) where the national difference between the Dem & Rep tickets was LESS than 30 EVs, that the result could be the election of a Republican POTUS and a Democratic Veep.

    Yes but all that needs to happen is for one of them to re-register in another state, which has been done before.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,028
    That's an extremely disturbing tweet from Beijing.

    I fear it might tell us rather a lot.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,360
    ydoethur said:

    Yorkshire are going to win this, aren't they?

    I was hoping they would lose and stay rooted firmly to the bottom where they belong,

    🏏 Week old cricket news from your county.
    Minor Counties West side hustle to grow cannabis on their pitch proved fruitless.


  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,099
    biggles said:

    That Kansas legislation quoted above is bonkers.

    Is this what legal text looks like in the USA? Our Parliamentary Counsel would have a fit.

    Setting aside the fact that I think trying to ban drag is silly, their attempt at a definition is so broad as to be unenforceable.

    “2) "drag performance" means a performance in which one or more performers:

    (A) Exhibits a gender identity that is different from the performer's gender assigned at birth using clothing, makeup or other accessories that are traditionally worn by members of and are meant to exaggerate the gender identity of the performer's opposite sex; and

    (B) sings, lip-synchs, dances or otherwise performs before an audience of at least two
    persons for entertainment, whether performed for payment or not”.

    That covers the Pythons. That covers most farces on stage. That covers the film ET (where he tries lipstick and a dress).

    If enacted, you’d make so much unlawful you’d be a laughing stock in days.

    And Some Like It Hot, Shrek, Nuns on the Run and a bunch of other movies
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,664
    ydoethur said:

    Yorkshire are going to win this, aren't they?

    I was hoping they would lose and stay rooted firmly to the bottom where they belong,

    I think that's correct. I sent a message to my stepson this morning to remind him never to misunderestimate Sussex's ability to fuck it up. 137 ao in their second innings is a ortfect example. Nice to have banter with him as I am Surrey supporter
    (despite having lived in Sussex for 42 years ) as the odds generally favour me.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,594
    Andy_JS said:

    I’m in Salisbury. Haven’t stocked up with beer yet, but have found time to get another Golding Blue Plaque


    I thought you were going on a boat to the continent. Must have mis-read your previous posts.
    Just trolling all the PB schoolmasters and writers who have not won a Nobel Prize.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,028
    On topic, with the right candidate, i.e. with Raab gone, I think Esher & Walton can be retained under Rishi.

    There's not that much left to squeeze and I suspect there's a good constituency of natural Conservative voters there who wouldn't welcome a Starmer government, for various reasons.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,028
    viewcode said:

    This Sunday, for the first time in the London Marathon’s history, three categories will cross the finish line: men, women and a special group for self-absorbed whingers who identify as “non-binary”. The new division was added after a consultation last year. Tellingly, sexed categories have been retained for the Elite, Championship and Good For Age races.…

    The creation of a non-binary category goes against the most basic rules of fair competition, effectively offering males two categories in which they can enjoy fair competition, whilst females have only one.


    https://thecritic.co.uk/thousands-of-steps-backwards/

    (I came here to comment on Picard, but as Casino hasn't bloody seen it yet, I have to focus on other things)

    * The female category is open to women who identify as binary
    * The non-binary category is open to women who identify as non-binary and men who identify as non-binary
    * The male category is open to men who identify as binary

    If I had to design a fair competition, I'd do it like this. I presume your objection derives from a belief that only women should ever compete with women, but consider this: if women were banned from the non-binary category, you would object.

    The thrust of the gender critical movement is that trans people (including non-binary in the definition for the moment) should compete in categories dependent on their birth sex. The marathon categories would seem to meet that definition. So this appears to be a non-problem problem.
    I have two young kids. I can't always jump to it.

    Star Trek Picard is the show the fans wanted (and is also bloody good on its own merits) and should have been made 5 years ago.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,099

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    All the chefs I know HATE Gordon Ramsey and his crap TV shows.
    Masterchef here in Britain is not a Gordon Ramsay programme, and is more about cooking than "tension" than the American and Australian versions which I find unwatchable. We also have Masterchef: the Professionals which has (iirc) chalked up a couple of Michelin stars among former contestants.
    My flint knapping agent also represents the guy who came up with the format for Masterchef. A British invention successfully exported to dozens of countries (not just USA and Oz). Every time any episode of Masterchef Thailand or Masterchef Brazil is made and broadcast anywhere in the world, he gets a chunk of money

    Unsurprisingly, he is spectacularly wealthy. And quite debauched. He’s probably good friends with Nick Palmer
    The best part of Masterchef is trying the skills' tests at home.
    Isn't he the guy in Halo??
    Detonating an entire star system may not be the best way to scramble some eggs.

    But no one in the known universe is stupid enough to tell the Master Chief that….
    No spoilers please! I’ve just started season one…
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,914

    biggles said:

    That Kansas legislation quoted above is bonkers.

    Is this what legal text looks like in the USA? Our Parliamentary Counsel would have a fit.

    Setting aside the fact that I think trying to ban drag is silly, their attempt at a definition is so broad as to be unenforceable.

    “2) "drag performance" means a performance in which one or more performers:

    (A) Exhibits a gender identity that is different from the performer's gender assigned at birth using clothing, makeup or other accessories that are traditionally worn by members of and are meant to exaggerate the gender identity of the performer's opposite sex; and

    (B) sings, lip-synchs, dances or otherwise performs before an audience of at least two
    persons for entertainment, whether performed for payment or not”.

    That covers the Pythons. That covers most farces on stage. That covers the film ET (where he tries lipstick and a dress).

    If enacted, you’d make so much unlawful you’d be a laughing stock in days.

    And Some Like It Hot, Shrek, Nuns on the Run and a bunch of other movies
    Some Like it Hot is what I was grasping for. The prefect example for those opposed to the Bill.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    Regarding final paragraph above, the main legal impediment to a Trump-DeSantis (or visa versa) ticket, is NOT the Florida state law you cite, requiring an officeholder to step down when running for another office. Which as noted, could be readily circumvented.

    Instead, the big issue (so to speak) is the provision of US Constitution, that prohibits Electors from any state, from voting for more than one candidate for POTUS and VP from their own state.

    Thus, if GOP nominated ticket of Trump-DeSantis, which subsequently won the popular vote in Florida, and thus the Sunshine State's 30 EVs, then these electors could vote for EITHER Trump for President or DeSantis for Vice President, but NOT for both.

    Which means that, in a close election (what are odds of THAT?) where the national difference between the Dem & Rep tickets was LESS than 30 EVs, that the result could be the election of a Republican POTUS and a Democratic Veep.

    Yes but all that needs to happen is for one of them to re-register in another state, which has been done before.
    By Trump. Only example I can recall.

    And his doing so in 2020, had (as far as I can tell) zero impact on that year's election.

    Spectacle of him essentially making himself - or RDS - jump though same hoop in 2024 might be bit too much of a {fill in the blank} thing, for even THIS spectacular spectacularist.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,734
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note how Esher and Walton peaked in Conservative voteshare under Cameron but in 2019 the Conservatives got no higher a voteshare there than Major did in 1997.

    That confirms that while Boris did have real appeal with the working class and lower middle classes and Leavers, hence his landslide win in 2019, in posh, wealthy, highly educated Remain seats his appeal was much less acute. That does therefore offer some hope to Raab. For while the polling shows Rishi has clearly lost the Redwall seats back to Starmer Labour he is more popular amongst Remainers and those who voted LD in 2019 than Boris was

    Interesting. The Boris factor is another reason why I suspect the Scottish Tories will do better, relatively, than their southern counterparts. Boris was a real drag on their vote in 2019. (The other reason, of course, is that their main opponent is the SNP who let's say, seem to be performing sub-optimally at the moment and, certainly, compared to 2019.)
    The Conservatives are only down about 6% in Scotland, compared to 15% nationally.

    But, in part, that’s due to their being a floor of 15% of Scots who vote Conservative.

    If the Conservative vote share holds up better than the SNP vote share, the SCons will gain.

    The Conservative vote is efficiently distributed in Scotland, being concentrated in the Borders, and SNP-Con marginals.
    There's also the Humza factor. How relatable is he in places like Dumfries & Galloway or the farmers, fisherfolk and oil & gas men of Banff & Buchan?
  • Andy_JS said:

    I’m in Salisbury. Haven’t stocked up with beer yet, but have found time to get another Golding Blue Plaque


    I thought you were going on a boat to the continent. Must have mis-read your previous posts.
    Sometimes you just have to get the blue plaques on the way



  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    edited April 2023
    Cont...
    RobD said:

    @viewcode can you keep the spoilers to a single comment so they can be more easily avoided? :D

    I assume everybody has seen up to and including episode 8, but no further. I haven't mentioned the reappearance of [redacted] from TNG, the distress call from [redacted], the re-reappearance of [redacted] nor [redacted] nor [redacted], nor the continuity error of [redacted] with arms, the rip-off of the run thru the [redacted] in the manner of the [redacted] thru the [redacted] on [well-known sci-fi franchise]. nor the absolute and obvious rip-off of the pilot of [other perhaps less-well-known sci-fi franchise]

    Neither did I point out the canonisation of unused designs of ships from fanon or STO (except for one which was in the series trailer: my bad). I could have pointed out the appearance of the [redacted] in the background, but that would be a bit obscure - the design history of ST spacecraft is convoluted, littered with abandoned designs, and @TSE stepmom-sized f****d by Discovery/SNW/Picard designs, which are awful.

    If you like, I can wait until after to go into real detail. I could do Powerpoints if you like, starting with Matt Jeffries and the importance of the word "Okudagram". It'll be fun. Honest. You'll like it. Eventually... :)

    Until then I will leave you with angry spaceship. Enjoy.

    [deleted pace @TSE prime directive]

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,099
    edited April 2023

    That's an extremely disturbing tweet from Beijing.

    I fear it might tell us rather a lot.

    Not really. They’ve always argued that, as a breakaway province, Taiwan has no legitimacy.

    This is just the logical extension of that position.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    🇨🇳 ambassador to 🇫🇷, when asked if Crimea is 🇺🇦:

    The former Soviet republics like Ukraine have “no effective status in international law”, they are “not sovereign states”.

    What did Macron achieve in Beijing, exactly?…

    https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1649604444558970883

    Bloody hell.

    Does that mean China has no status in international law? After all, the legal government is in Taipei...*

    *yes, yes, I know Chiang's government had no more actual legitimacy than Mao's.
    It means China doesn't recognise international law except did the bits it makes up as it goes along.

    It doesn't mean we can't do business with it. We just have to have no illusions about it being a dangerous and very powerful potential adversary.
    Recognising the bits of international law you want and not the bits you don't want is not altogether uncommon of course. But with such large ambitions it is definitely more a problem with China.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,809
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    Cont...

    * It has been really nice to see the old cast, but they have aged. PatStew and McFadden are too old. Sirtis is aging out, and Spiner looks like Herbert The Pervert. Forbes is still good but fillers etc make her look too different. Russ and Ryan still look good but are noticeably older. Only Frakes, Burton and arguably Dorn still look good and impressive

    Thing that annoyed me about that episode? It ended about six different times. And then cut to something else.
    Yes. Worryingly, it's an end-of-franchise thing. We'll probably never see the original TNG crew together in this way again, which if you think about it is quite sad. We spent all that time longing for a reunion and now that we've had it...damn.
  • kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Speaking of huge franchises that have recently failed to develop offshoots and are forced to return to the original characters and settings, Picard series 3 episode 10 dropped this week. With spoilers widely available early Thursday morning but a self-denying ordnance in place until people at Brit pace caught up, we can now talk about it.

    And it was...ok. Not bad, and with some very nice bits of character interaction, but it was memberberries all the way. And although they've set up a legacy series going forward, it does feel like it's run its course. Discovery is sputtering to its end, SNW is a tribute band, and I'm wondering "now what".

    I now return you to your fantasy series for children

    Star Trek has introduced new offshoots, we've never had so many different serieses as in the last few years, and whilst things like Strange New Worlds, Discovery and Lower Decks are nostalgia bait (if to a lesser degree than Picard), they still do their own thing.
    Problems of canon and overloading can occur by trying to squeeze a lot into the same broad time period of the setting though.

    Sandpit said:

    I think my much-derided 50/50 on DeSantis being a non-runner, might be about to come off.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/22/inside-the-collapse-of-ron-desantis-presidential-campaign/

    I have been saying the same thing that the chances of RDS running were quite low when you looked at the logic of things. I still stand by my view a DJT-RDS run is very much on the cards. One question will be whether DJT thinks having RDS loses him votes on the abortion issue or reassures the evangelical voters.
    I don't see the appeal for DeSantis in joining the ticket under Trump (also wasn't there some speculation about not being able to as both registered in the same state?). He's young, should be easily re-elected as Governor and plenty of time.

    He's unwilling to go after Trump for obvious reasons, and even in his own area people don't seem to fully buy he can be Trump but more electorally successful, since he is working hard to be polarising, so why would he go now?
    My view has always been that, from a RDS standpoint, running as Trump's VP pick has multiple advantages. For a start, it effectively gives him a massive boost for the 2028 nomination, especially if DJT wins. Secondly, and related, it's fair to say he would probably beat Harris in a debate, which helps him for 2028 even if DJT loses. Thirdly, if he leaves it until 2028, it gives time for other candidates to emerge in a GOP world that no longer has to give consideration to Trump and so where there would be a much greater field of candidates.

    In summary, running with Trump now helps RDS in 2028 unless the latter completely messes it up, which I don't think he would.

    Most of the arguments against RDS being picked are flimsy. The same state rule can easily be circumvented. Technically, RDS might have to step down as Governor for a run but the Florida legislature can pass legislation to amend this (and has done so in the past). For me, the main question now is Trump - part personality wise but also whether he thinks a RDS wins or loses him more votes in 2024.
    Regarding final paragraph above, the main legal impediment to a Trump-DeSantis (or visa versa) ticket, is NOT the Florida state law you cite, requiring an officeholder to step down when running for another office. Which as noted, could be readily circumvented.

    Instead, the big issue (so to speak) is the provision of US Constitution, that prohibits Electors from any state, from voting for more than one candidate for POTUS and VP from their own state.

    Thus, if GOP nominated ticket of Trump-DeSantis, which subsequently won the popular vote in Florida, and thus the Sunshine State's 30 EVs, then these electors could vote for EITHER Trump for President or DeSantis for Vice President, but NOT for both.

    Which means that, in a close election (what are odds of THAT?) where the national difference between the Dem & Rep tickets was LESS than 30 EVs, that the result could be the election of a Republican POTUS and a Democratic Veep.

    Yes but all that needs to happen is for one of them to re-register in another state, which has been done before.
    By Trump. Only example I can recall.

    And his doing so in 2020, had (as far as I can tell) zero impact on that year's election.

    Spectacle of him essentially making himself - or RDS - jump though same hoop in 2024 might be bit too much of a {fill in the blank} thing, for even THIS spectacular spectacularist.
    I think someone here mentioned Cheney had also done it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,897
    I watched the Picard finale.

    Meh...
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,734

    On topic, with the right candidate, i.e. with Raab gone, I think Esher & Walton can be retained under Rishi.

    There's not that much left to squeeze and I suspect there's a good constituency of natural Conservative voters there who wouldn't welcome a Starmer government, for various reasons.

    He will surely stand down? End of ministerial career and not much chance of a revival. Plus the Tories will be out of Govt after the election. And he is very likely to lose his seat and become a talking point of the election. Not a very attractive prospect surely? Better to be Lord Raab of Esher (or Walton) and pursue other interests.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    🇨🇳 ambassador to 🇫🇷, when asked if Crimea is 🇺🇦:

    The former Soviet republics like Ukraine have “no effective status in international law”, they are “not sovereign states”.

    What did Macron achieve in Beijing, exactly?…

    https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1649604444558970883

    Bloody hell.

    Does that mean China has no status in international law? After all, the legal government is in Taipei...*

    *yes, yes, I know Chiang's government had no more actual legitimacy than Mao's.
    It means China doesn't recognise international law except did the bits it makes up as it goes along.

    It doesn't mean we can't do business with it. We just have to have no illusions about it being a dangerous and very powerful potential adversary.
    Isn't more likely that the Chinese ambassador to France was speaking out of turn and might be sacked in the morning, or that his remarks have been a bit misreported?

    Have you got a link to the original remarks?
    It is certainly possible he was speaking out of turn (though it has been reported widely enough that if it was misreported I think that would be clear by now) and it will be rolled back.

    Nonetheless, let's think about that for a moment - why would a seasoned diplomat stumble and speak out of turn so dramatically, about an issue which is guaranteed to get a lot of attention? What very careful line were they instructed to walk that risked a blunder like that in the first place?

    We often seen politicians or diplomats stick to very precise terminology and phrasing for specific reasons - see Putin with his Special Military Operation - and that can tie them up in knots a little, and lead to some ridiculousness. So, assuming it is unlikely China has a total incompetent idiot in place as ambassador (not certain, but lets assume) then whatever line Mr Diplomat was trying to stick to was at best something which was close enough to what he said that he overreached.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    Cont...

    RobD said:

    @viewcode can you keep the spoilers to a single comment so they can be more easily avoided? :D

    I assume everybody has seen up to and including episode 8, but no further. I haven't mentioned the reappearance of [redacted] from TNG, the distress call from [redacted], the re-reappearance of [redacted] nor [redacted] nor [redacted], nor the continuity error of [redacted] with arms, the rip-off of the run thru the [redacted] in the manner of the [redacted] thru the [redacted] on [well-known sci-fi franchise]. nor the absolute and obvious rip-off of the pilot of [other perhaps less-well-known sci-fi franchise]

    Neither did I point out the canonisation of unused designs of ships from fanon or STO (except for one which was in the series trailer: my bad). I could have pointed out the appearance of the [redacted] in the background, but that would be a bit obscure - the design history of ST spacecraft is convoluted, littered with abandoned designs, and @TSE stepmom-sized f****d by Discovery/SNW/Picard designs, which are awful.

    If you like, I can wait until after to go into real detail. I could do Powerpoints if you like, starting with Matt Jeffries and the importance of the word "Okudagram". It'll be fun. Honest. You'll like it. Eventually... :)

    Until then I will leave you with angry spaceship. Enjoy.

    [deleted pace @TSE prime directive]

    'I assume everybody has seen up to and including episode 8, but no further."|

    Why on earth would you make such an assumption?

    Which I can assure you, is NOT true. Unless I'm nobody?

    Certainly I've not seen any of "Startrek Picard". And wouldn't pay a dime for the privilege, instead will wait for re-runs on el cheapo TV, whenever they get around to it.

    So spoil away!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,582

    That's an extremely disturbing tweet from Beijing.

    I fear it might tell us rather a lot.

    Not really. They’ve always argued that, as a breakaway province, Taiwan has no legitimacy.

    This is just the logical extension of that position.
    I would love to see a re-unified China... if it was free and democratic like Taiwan.
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Why are people wound up about how amateurs are categorised in a marathon that raises money for charity? Isn't that the point, the charity bit
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,497

    That's an extremely disturbing tweet from Beijing.

    I fear it might tell us rather a lot.

    Not really. They’ve always argued that, as a breakaway province, Taiwan has no legitimacy.

    This is just the logical extension of that position.
    Of course Taiwan was a Japanese colony from 1895, which makes that claim a little complicated.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    That's an extremely disturbing tweet from Beijing.

    I fear it might tell us rather a lot.

    Xi Jinping is a genocidal dictator with aggressive foreign policy ideas. Of course we shouldn't do business with them. Doing business makes them richer and more powerful.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2023

    On topic, with the right candidate, i.e. with Raab gone, I think Esher & Walton can be retained under Rishi.

    There's not that much left to squeeze and I suspect there's a good constituency of natural Conservative voters there who wouldn't welcome a Starmer government, for various reasons.

    He will surely stand down? End of ministerial career and not much chance of a revival. Plus the Tories will be out of Govt after the election. And he is very likely to lose his seat and become a talking point of the election. Not a very attractive prospect surely? Better to be Lord Raab of Esher (or Walton) and pursue other interests.
    Lord Raabid of Barking?

    OR of Baron Raabid of the Isle of Dogs?

    AND the next, new Governor of Gibraltar!
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    carnforth said:

    That's an extremely disturbing tweet from Beijing.

    I fear it might tell us rather a lot.

    Not really. They’ve always argued that, as a breakaway province, Taiwan has no legitimacy.

    This is just the logical extension of that position.
    Of course Taiwan was a Japanese colony from 1895, which makes that claim a little complicated.
    In my take, sovereignty belongs to the people and their fairly elected representatives. So Taiwan is a sovereign state and China is not.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,611

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Why do I like Masterchef so much? I dunno. But I do. I get positively EXCITED by a new episode, and root for individual chefs, and heckle the ones that do “goose thighs five ways”

    Mad, really

    All the chefs I know HATE Gordon Ramsey and his crap TV shows.
    Masterchef here in Britain is not a Gordon Ramsay programme, and is more about cooking than "tension" than the American and Australian versions which I find unwatchable. We also have Masterchef: the Professionals which has (iirc) chalked up a couple of Michelin stars among former contestants.
    My flint knapping agent also represents the guy who came up with the format for Masterchef. A British invention successfully exported to dozens of countries (not just USA and Oz). Every time any episode of Masterchef Thailand or Masterchef Brazil is made and broadcast anywhere in the world, he gets a chunk of money

    Unsurprisingly, he is spectacularly wealthy. And quite debauched. He’s probably good friends with Nick Palmer
    The best part of Masterchef is trying the skills' tests at home.
    Isn't he the guy in Halo??
    Detonating an entire star system may not be the best way to scramble some eggs.

    But no one in the known universe is stupid enough to tell the Master Chief that….
    No spoilers please! I’ve just started season one…
    Cortana’s attempt at a Flambé does not go well….
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,866
    Dialup said:

    Why are people wound up about how amateurs are categorised in a marathon that raises money for charity? Isn't that the point, the charity bit

    Is the category only used for the amateur part, or the professional part too?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,028

    That's an extremely disturbing tweet from Beijing.

    I fear it might tell us rather a lot.

    Not really. They’ve always argued that, as a breakaway province, Taiwan has no legitimacy.

    This is just the logical extension of that position.
    Extending it to any independent nation that resulted from the breakup of the Soviet Union is upping the ante.

    These nations were never part of Russia, as Taiwan was China.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,028
    WillG said:

    That's an extremely disturbing tweet from Beijing.

    I fear it might tell us rather a lot.

    Xi Jinping is a genocidal dictator with aggressive foreign policy ideas. Of course we shouldn't do business with them. Doing business makes them richer and more powerful.
    I hope he meets a sticky end.

    His economy can't motor ahead in splendid isolation and his demographics aren't any better than the West's either.

    There's a lot of scope to turn the thumbscrews there, even though it will come at a cost to us.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,028

    On topic, with the right candidate, i.e. with Raab gone, I think Esher & Walton can be retained under Rishi.

    There's not that much left to squeeze and I suspect there's a good constituency of natural Conservative voters there who wouldn't welcome a Starmer government, for various reasons.

    He will surely stand down? End of ministerial career and not much chance of a revival. Plus the Tories will be out of Govt after the election. And he is very likely to lose his seat and become a talking point of the election. Not a very attractive prospect surely? Better to be Lord Raab of Esher (or Walton) and pursue other interests.
    Esher and Walton is a very Conservative seat, and the LDs only got close through a big swing from core Conservatives.

    Wealth taxes and VAT on private school fees isn't going to go down well in a constituency like that, and Brexit is now a done deal.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,497
    I see the SNP don't have a monopoly on Scottish silliness:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65359679

    "Douglas Ross prompts Holyrood security alert over toy gun delivery"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,028

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note how Esher and Walton peaked in Conservative voteshare under Cameron but in 2019 the Conservatives got no higher a voteshare there than Major did in 1997.

    That confirms that while Boris did have real appeal with the working class and lower middle classes and Leavers, hence his landslide win in 2019, in posh, wealthy, highly educated Remain seats his appeal was much less acute. That does therefore offer some hope to Raab. For while the polling shows Rishi has clearly lost the Redwall seats back to Starmer Labour he is more popular amongst Remainers and those who voted LD in 2019 than Boris was

    Interesting. The Boris factor is another reason why I suspect the Scottish Tories will do better, relatively, than their southern counterparts. Boris was a real drag on their vote in 2019. (The other reason, of course, is that their main opponent is the SNP who let's say, seem to be performing sub-optimally at the moment and, certainly, compared to 2019.)
    The Conservatives are only down about 6% in Scotland, compared to 15% nationally.

    But, in part, that’s due to their being a floor of 15% of Scots who vote Conservative.

    If the Conservative vote share holds up better than the SNP vote share, the SCons will gain.

    The Conservative vote is efficiently distributed in Scotland, being concentrated in the Borders, and SNP-Con marginals.
    There's also the Humza factor. How relatable is he in places like Dumfries & Galloway or the farmers, fisherfolk and oil & gas men of Banff & Buchan?
    Some of the Scottish Conservatives I've met in the Borders are so staunch they make me look a bleeding hard liberal.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,642
    edited April 2023

    On topic, with the right candidate, i.e. with Raab gone, I think Esher & Walton can be retained under Rishi.

    There's not that much left to squeeze and I suspect there's a good constituency of natural Conservative voters there who wouldn't welcome a Starmer government, for various reasons.

    He will surely stand down? End of ministerial career and not much chance of a revival. Plus the Tories will be out of Govt after the election. And he is very likely to lose his seat and become a talking point of the election. Not a very attractive prospect surely? Better to be Lord Raab of Esher (or Walton) and pursue other interests.
    He'll be back in < 12 months IMO.

    Edited cos I got a bit carried away. I'm sure in private he's a lovely guy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,362
    Dialup said:

    Why are people wound up about how amateurs are categorised in a marathon that raises money for charity? Isn't that the point, the charity bit

    No idea what this is about, but if you don't know that there is an intersection of charity and ego from time to time it is worth finding out.

    Oh yes, and why is a good cause so weak that you only give it money if someone suffers for it like running a marathon?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    On topic, with the right candidate, i.e. with Raab gone, I think Esher & Walton can be retained under Rishi.

    There's not that much left to squeeze and I suspect there's a good constituency of natural Conservative voters there who wouldn't welcome a Starmer government, for various reasons.

    He will surely stand down? End of ministerial career and not much chance of a revival. Plus the Tories will be out of Govt after the election. And he is very likely to lose his seat and become a talking point of the election. Not a very attractive prospect surely? Better to be Lord Raab of Esher (or Walton) and pursue other interests.
    He'll be back in < 12 months IMO.

    As an aside I don't think attacking the civil service will resonate with very many as Raab just looks angry. He's always looked angry. All the pictures on the web and its hard to find one which doesn't show a perceivably angry, uncomfortable politician.
    I swear when he did his 'activist' civil servants complaint it seemed like he was deliberately talking quieter than normal, as if to counter any idea he was a screamer, which someone might assume from a casual look at a headline about bullying.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65358258
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,170
    Scott_xP said:

    I watched the Picard finale.

    Meh...

    It's the previous episode worried me.

    Mr Eagles said one scene was better than any sex he'd ever had.

    Which means his sex life is less satisfying than watching an old bloke babbling about carpets.

    Could @Leon and @NickPalmer maybe advise on ways to spice things up for him?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,326
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-dominic-raab-was-brought-down-over-bullying-report-crrmdspgn

    On Dominic Raab this article in the times is good, Tim Shipmans account of what actually happened over the last 48 hours, and the background to the report.
  • Wrexham 3 - 1 up and heading to promotion

    When our son and daughter in law visited us from Vancouver she wanted to go to Wrexham because of the celebrities involved

    She bought several souvenirs and the person in front of her had come from the US and was in the process of buying 40 scarves

    When the staff heard my daughter in law's Canadian accent and she is from Vancouver she was treated almost like a celebrity herself

    Utterly remarkable story of international fame and success
  • Andy_JS said:

    I’m in Salisbury. Haven’t stocked up with beer yet, but have found time to get another Golding Blue Plaque


    I thought you were going on a boat to the continent. Must have mis-read your previous posts.
    Sometimes you just have to get the blue plaques on the way



    Getting that nearly cost me..

    Was a bit late and the last passenger to board. They had to send the shuttle bus back just for me!

    On my way to Saint-Malo






  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,820

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note how Esher and Walton peaked in Conservative voteshare under Cameron but in 2019 the Conservatives got no higher a voteshare there than Major did in 1997.

    That confirms that while Boris did have real appeal with the working class and lower middle classes and Leavers, hence his landslide win in 2019, in posh, wealthy, highly educated Remain seats his appeal was much less acute. That does therefore offer some hope to Raab. For while the polling shows Rishi has clearly lost the Redwall seats back to Starmer Labour he is more popular amongst Remainers and those who voted LD in 2019 than Boris was

    Interesting. The Boris factor is another reason why I suspect the Scottish Tories will do better, relatively, than their southern counterparts. Boris was a real drag on their vote in 2019. (The other reason, of course, is that their main opponent is the SNP who let's say, seem to be performing sub-optimally at the moment and, certainly, compared to 2019.)
    The Conservatives are only down about 6% in Scotland, compared to 15% nationally.

    But, in part, that’s due to their being a floor of 15% of Scots who vote Conservative.

    If the Conservative vote share holds up better than the SNP vote share, the SCons will gain.

    The Conservative vote is efficiently distributed in Scotland, being concentrated in the Borders, and SNP-Con marginals.
    There's also the Humza factor. How relatable is he in places like Dumfries & Galloway or the farmers, fisherfolk and oil & gas men of Banff & Buchan?
    PB Yoons moving on from SKS/SLab being the saviours of the Union then.
    The most recent Scottish Westminster poll has Unionist parties on 53%, the same as 2019 (& almost 10% worse than 2017). If the bearded Muslim factor is a thing, it’s not turning voters on to Unionism,

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,897
    @KieranPAndrews
    EXC: A senior SNP minister was secretly paid a £33,000 salary top-up while leader of the party at Westminster in a deal that infuriated colleagues

    Angus Robertson's wages were enhanced after the SNP became the UK’s third largest party in 2015

    https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1649827266606555137
This discussion has been closed.