LAB no longer odds on to win a majority – politicalbetting.com
LAB no longer odds on to win a majority – politicalbetting.com
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LAB no longer odds on to win a majority – politicalbetting.com
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In fact, tbh, they barely pretend to. Starmer's offer is that he isn't the Conservatives (something that could have been said of his former boss and "friend" Jeremy Corbyn), and Sunak's is that he is doing a better job than his predecessor. Both true, but they'll hardly get the economy going again or sort out the public services.
If either come up with any good ideas, we can reassess.
DYOR
LabourySpursy?We had people who hadn't read the full report denying there was no appellate process whereas those of us who had read the report knew they were talking shite.
"The Guardians is a dystopian political thriller set in the 1980s. Following economic chaos, democratic government has been overthrown in a bloodless coup, the Royal Family fled into self-imposed exile and the United Kingdom is ruled autocratically by Prime Minister Sir Timothy Hobson. Hobson is initially a pawn of 'the General'; a military officer by the name of Roger, who later becomes the Minister of Defence. Hobson subscribes to an outwardly benevolent paternalistic fascism, based on the principle that "democracy is a form of group suicide.""
Some episodes are tosh, but some are really very good and the overall series is a good window into 1970s 'dystopian thought'.
'1990' is another 70s variation on the theme from an almost opposite viewpoint (left-wing authoritarian government & starring Edward Woodward).
As with Labour majority.
Labour short of a majority does lead to the next question: is the country going to vote for the crazy ride of a rainbow coalition?
It was a crazy move foisted on the country by a party jam packed with crazies... who are also still there.
So I would entirely separate the need for reasonably strong property rights from the question of wealth and its redistribution. Not least because whatever wealth accrues to property ownership is only theoretical until such times as it is actually sold. Forced redistribution of a theoretical wealth seems fundamentally wrong to me.
And the consequence of the Truss Interregnum is that Labour will have virtually no room to borrow. So if it is to move the dial at all, it will have to tax. Whether that sinks in before the next election rather dictates the outcome of that next election.
But, the last 50 years being what they are, the contingent case for redistribution at present seems strong. I guess I’d go so far as to say the system of property rights you’re defending has been allowed to be bent so far out of shape that it risks being broken entirely.
‘I don’t think he cares about people’: DeSantis struggles with former Hill colleagues
A growing string of anecdotes describes the Florida governor’s lack of a personal touch during his six years in the House.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/21/i-dont-think-he-cares-about-people-desantis-struggles-with-former-hill-colleagues-00093281
Either Trump is the nominee, or they’re trying to destroy the Florida autocrat before Trump succumbs to his legal travails.
There’s a (narrow and slightly unlikely) lane for one of the long shots.
‘Property rights’ certainly doesn’t apply only to land and buildings.
So anything you do on *your* land has effects on somebody else's.*
How does that feed in to property rights?
*Particularly if you damn a river and cause a section of it to dry up, as this dickhead did.
The absolutist case for property is just nonsense.
Completely off topic, but I thought what I saw on my walk to get groceries this morning would interest some of you:
I shop more at a local QFC (a subsidiary of Kroger) than anywhere else. The most direct walk there takes me 10 short blocks north, and then northeast across a large park.
In those 10 blocks I saw people gathering at the Iman Center for an EID* celebration, a Presbyterian church, which holds services in both English and Chinese, a Unitarian church that also hosts a Jewish meeting, behind that a Baptist church, and further along, a 100 year old Episcopalian Church.
And on the way back, I had a nice talk with two elderly Jehovah Witness ladies. (The Jehovah Witnesses regularly set up at the front of the local library, and I often chat with them, there.
I am mildly disappointed that there are no Hindu or Buddhist gathering places along the route. But the Unitarians do have a sign asking us to support the Duwamish tribe, who probably have a religion of their own.
(*Equity, Inclusion, and Diversity? Probably not, since they made no effort to include me.)
Eye-opening and horrifying.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/media/60928/how-fox-and-murdoch-are-destroying-us-democracy
"In the end, the Fox was more like the scorpion in the well-known fable, stinging the frog of democracy it was being carried on, sinking them both into a quagmire of dishonesty, disinformation and disorder. It was simply being true to its nature. It still is. "
This is wonderful news.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/apr/20/fun-way-consume-music-why-sales-of-cassette-tapes-soaring
"‘Such a fun way to consume music’: why sales of the ‘obsolete’ cassette are soaring
With more cassette tapes being bought than since 2003, readers tell why they prefer them to modern music players"
Hi yourself, GOP. How's tricks?
Oh fine fine. But listen ... fancy 4 more years in the WH?
What, you're not actually going to pick HIM, are you?
Yup, reckon so.
Well blow me down. Much obliged.
However, if you look back at the odds, and then think forward, the only conclusion can be that we had no idea in the past how it would look now, now now we have no idea how it will look in 12 months time.
I think a Tory victory is nearer a 20% chance than 13%. NOM is nearer 45%-50%. Lab victory over rated.
But what do know? I recently dipped a toe in the water on Arsenal for the Premiership.
Florida prosecutor apologizes for memo that called for harsher penalties for Hispanic defendants
https://thehill.com/homenews/3963168-florida-prosecutor-apologizes-for-memo-that-called-for-harsher-penalties-for-hispanic-defendants/
Squeaky bum time for Arsenal
But City are being handed this on a plate.
But sweet-natured voters of all colours. One still-Tory elderly lady who had given me directions to a nearby road walked quickly down the steep hill outside her home to say "So sorry, I got it wrong, it's the second turning, not the first. I'm so glad I caught you."
Perhaps taken a bit too literally by some.
So what is the Tory strategy from here?
Arsenal 82% Southampton 18% and yet it remains 1 - 3 with 5 mins plus injury time to go
Robin ReliantStarshipIt's going to be interesting at both ends of the table these next couple of weeks.
Labour need to come out with some eye catching proposals and not just rely on “ its time for a change “.
Nothing like a threesome anecdote to put a human face to a political opponent.
Techne now has 44-31-10 so Labour a little higher and the Conservatives a little lower so you'd be thinking perhaps an 8-9 point notional lead as well.
2019 was a strange polling time - the last YouGov before that year's locals had Conservative and Labour on 29% each and the LDs on 13% but the projected vote shares from the local polls were 28-28-19.
So, on that basis you could see a small swing from LDs to the Conservatives but a much bigger move from Conservative to Labour - perhaps a swing of 6-7%.
In terms of actual votes cast, the Conservatives beat Labour by roughly five points - 31.5 to 26.5 with the LDs on 17%, Greens on 9%, UKIP on 4,5% and 11.5% split between various Independents, Residents and others.
That's not reliable because it's not an exact match of seats being contested.
Wait till the GE the liar that is SKS is going to be pulverised by the right wing press
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries:
GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%.
Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically.
Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.