Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
Well, we will see in just two weeks time, so not really worth the candle to argue about it now.
Incidentally I thought it was rather ironic that on a day when a minister was fired for allegations of what appears to be fairly low-level bullying being upheld, OFSTED, against who, there have been literally countless allegations of bullying, fraud, and even safeguarding breaches against children, announced it would not change any of its behaviours despite their bullying literally killing people.
Does anyone else sense a double standard?
I was struck by that this morning, listening to the latest news report regarding OFSTED. They appear to assume they are immune from any responsibility for the results of their actions.
They are the Guardians
Read the Republic to realise how stupid the idea is. To the point that some philosophers resort to the "Plato was being sarcastic" excuse.
"The Guardians is a dystopian political thriller set in the 1980s. Following economic chaos, democratic government has been overthrown in a bloodless coup, the Royal Family fled into self-imposed exile and the United Kingdom is ruled autocratically by Prime Minister Sir Timothy Hobson. Hobson is initially a pawn of 'the General'; a military officer by the name of Roger, who later becomes the Minister of Defence. Hobson subscribes to an outwardly benevolent paternalistic fascism, based on the principle that "democracy is a form of group suicide.""
Some episodes are tosh, but some are really very good and the overall series is a good window into 1970s 'dystopian thought'.
'1990' is another 70s variation on the theme from an almost opposite viewpoint (left-wing authoritarian government & starring Edward Woodward).
I think we read the book at school! This is the one where the UK is split into the "City" and the "County" by a massive wall, right?
I think that might be conflated with 'The Death of Grass'? I might well be getting that wrong myself as it's been a long time since I read it though.
Incidentally I thought it was rather ironic that on a day when a minister was fired for allegations of what appears to be fairly low-level bullying being upheld, OFSTED, against who, there have been literally countless allegations of bullying, fraud, and even safeguarding breaches against children, announced it would not change any of its behaviours despite their bullying literally killing people.
Does anyone else sense a double standard?
I was struck by that this morning, listening to the latest news report regarding OFSTED. They appear to assume they are immune from any responsibility for the results of their actions.
They are the Guardians
Read the Republic to realise how stupid the idea is. To the point that some philosophers resort to the "Plato was being sarcastic" excuse.
"The Guardians is a dystopian political thriller set in the 1980s. Following economic chaos, democratic government has been overthrown in a bloodless coup, the Royal Family fled into self-imposed exile and the United Kingdom is ruled autocratically by Prime Minister Sir Timothy Hobson. Hobson is initially a pawn of 'the General'; a military officer by the name of Roger, who later becomes the Minister of Defence. Hobson subscribes to an outwardly benevolent paternalistic fascism, based on the principle that "democracy is a form of group suicide.""
Some episodes are tosh, but some are really very good and the overall series is a good window into 1970s 'dystopian thought'.
'1990' is another 70s variation on the theme from an almost opposite viewpoint (left-wing authoritarian government & starring Edward Woodward).
I think we read the book at school! This is the one where the UK is split into the "City" and the "County" by a massive wall, right?
I think that might be conflated with 'The Death of Grass'?
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
Well, we will see in just two weeks time, so not really worth the candle to argue about it now.
Lots of orange diamonds around me this last week.
LD voters are always the keenest to put up posters.
Incidentally I thought it was rather ironic that on a day when a minister was fired for allegations of what appears to be fairly low-level bullying being upheld, OFSTED, against who, there have been literally countless allegations of bullying, fraud, and even safeguarding breaches against children, announced it would not change any of its behaviours despite their bullying literally killing people.
Does anyone else sense a double standard?
I was struck by that this morning, listening to the latest news report regarding OFSTED. They appear to assume they are immune from any responsibility for the results of their actions.
They are the Guardians
Read the Republic to realise how stupid the idea is. To the point that some philosophers resort to the "Plato was being sarcastic" excuse.
"The Guardians is a dystopian political thriller set in the 1980s. Following economic chaos, democratic government has been overthrown in a bloodless coup, the Royal Family fled into self-imposed exile and the United Kingdom is ruled autocratically by Prime Minister Sir Timothy Hobson. Hobson is initially a pawn of 'the General'; a military officer by the name of Roger, who later becomes the Minister of Defence. Hobson subscribes to an outwardly benevolent paternalistic fascism, based on the principle that "democracy is a form of group suicide.""
Some episodes are tosh, but some are really very good and the overall series is a good window into 1970s 'dystopian thought'.
'1990' is another 70s variation on the theme from an almost opposite viewpoint (left-wing authoritarian government & starring Edward Woodward).
I think we read the book at school! This is the one where the UK is split into the "City" and the "County" by a massive wall, right?
I think that might be conflated with 'The Death of Grass'? I might well be getting that wrong myself as it's been a long time since I read it though.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
Well, we will see in just two weeks time, so not really worth the candle to argue about it now.
Lots of orange diamonds around me this last week.
LD voters are always the keenest to put up posters.
CON not so much. Especially in London!
Many Conservative voters think it is a bit common to put up posters for a political party or candidate, especially the posher ones. There are also more shy Tories than shy Labour or shy LD voters.
I remember in 2015 seeing far more Labour posters than Conservative ones around but Cameron's Conservatives still won a majority
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
Well, we will see in just two weeks time, so not really worth the candle to argue about it now.
Lots of orange diamonds around me this last week.
LD voters are always the keenest to put up posters.
CON not so much. Especially in London!
Many Conservative voters think it is a bit common to put up posters for a political party or candidate, especially the posher ones. There are also more shy Tories than shy Labour or LD voters.
I remember in 2015 seeing far more Labour posters than Conservative ones around but Cameron's Conservatives still won a majority
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
Well, we will see in just two weeks time, so not really worth the candle to argue about it now.
Lots of orange diamonds around me this last week.
LD voters are always the keenest to put up posters.
CON not so much. Especially in London!
Many Conservative voters think it is a bit common to put up posters for a political party or candidate, especially the posher ones. There are also more shy Tories than shy Labour or LD voters.
I remember in 2015 seeing far more Labour posters than Conservative ones around but Cameron's Conservatives still won a majority
Posters = Twitter?
For the same reason Labour supporters are much more likely to tweet openly their political opinions than Conservative voters are
I feel like the first part about settlement goes against the second bit. Seems to be all they've said is they'll go as far as Dominion, so offer a bit more than they go now the sides know you'll go at least that far.
Wow. Smartmatic just announced that it will not accept any settlement under $787 million from Fox & that it will need a “full retraction” of lies & misstatements by Fox. Smartmatic is not playing around here and they are about to make Fox find out. This is how it’s done.
Also important to note: “Smartmatic is ‘looking to take this case through trial’ & wants ‘the vindication of a jury verdict in their favor.’” Full story below
Keir Starmer may be rubbish but he’s still 10 points ahead at worst.
So what is the Tory strategy from here?
Watch Starmer fuck.it up
Popcorn time
Why are you so desperate for another five years of Conservative corruption and inertia? Because like it or not, unless there is some divine intervention, it is either that or Starmer.
You were not long ago trumpeting Conservative levelling up in South and West Yorkshire. Remind me how that's going today.
Keir Starmer may be rubbish but he’s still 10 points ahead at worst.
So what is the Tory strategy from here?
Watch Starmer fuck.it up
Popcorn time
Why are you so desperate for another five years of Conservative corruption and inertia? Because like it or not, unless there is some divine intervention, it is either that or Starmer.
You were not long ago trumpeting Conservative levelling up in South and West Yorkshire. Remind me how that's going today.
Levelling up in Staveley was what I was trumpeting and since you ask. Another massive tranche being used this very day.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
Well, we will see in just two weeks time, so not really worth the candle to argue about it now.
Keir Starmer may be rubbish but he’s still 10 points ahead at worst.
So what is the Tory strategy from here?
Watch Starmer fuck.it up
Popcorn time
Why are you so desperate for another five years of Conservative corruption and inertia? Because like it or not, unless there is some divine intervention, it is either that or Starmer.
You were not long ago trumpeting Conservative levelling up in South and West Yorkshire. Remind me how that's going today.
Levelling up in Staveley was what I was trumpeting and since you ask. Another massive tranche being used this very day.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
Well, we will see in just two weeks time, so not really worth the candle to argue about it now.
Lots of orange diamonds around me this last week.
Oadby and Wigston?
Yes, but also Evington in Leicester, and Bushby in Harborough.
I haven't seen any posters for anyone else so far.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Corbyn far left my arse
Go boil your Centrist head.
Sorry I'll qualify that. Corbyn far left anti-semitic Putin toadying extremists.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Corbyn far left my arse
Go boil your Centrist head.
I thought the whole point of Corbyn, and what enthused people about him, was that he was radical and not centre-left, he was offering different, properly left solutions. For accuracy's sake, what is the dividing line between radical left and far left? (Yes, there can be a debate about the line between right and far-right too).
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
Well, we will see in just two weeks time, so not really worth the candle to argue about it now.
Lots of orange diamonds around me this last week.
No, you may have misinterpret my point to which HY was replying. I was referring to tactical voting in a GE, which is a very different scenario to local elections. I don't think any lessons on that can be drawn for a GE from events in two weeks time.
Blimey, I didn't know sentencing remarks could be so spicy - on the chaps who protested on that Dartford bridge. https://twitter.com/BarbaraRich_law/status/1649455542031581188/photo/2 Sentencing remarks give some voice to ordinary members of the public affected by protesters’ actions, here the closing of the Dartford Crossing road bridge https://judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl Some weird grammatical errors in parts though.
Blimey, I didn't know sentencing remarks could be so spicy - on the chaps who protested on that Dartford bridge. https://twitter.com/BarbaraRich_law/status/1649455542031581188/photo/2 Sentencing remarks give some voice to ordinary members of the public affected by protesters’ actions, here the closing of the Dartford Crossing road bridge https://judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl Some weird grammatical errors in parts though.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Corbyn far left my arse
Go boil your Centrist head.
Sorry I'll qualify that. Corbyn far left anti-semitic Putin toadying extremists.
Phil Wulrun lying centrist is responsible for all Tory failings as he preferred an extreme right Government to the moderate Socialism offered by Corbyn.
Phil and his centrists used anti Semitism lies as a factional tool and supported the election of apartheid supporting heirachy of racism implementing liar SKS.
Every element of your qualification is total bollocks Not far left not anti semitic and not Putin supporting.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Corbyn far left my arse
Go boil your Centrist head.
I thought the whole point of Corbyn, and what enthused people about him, was that he was radical and not centre-left, he was offering different, properly left solutions. For accuracy's sake, what is the dividing line between radical left and far left? (Yes, there can be a debate about the line between right and far-right too).
Corbyns 2017 and 2019 manifestos would not be dissimilar to that offered across Europe by Centre left Parties.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Corbyn far left my arse
Go boil your Centrist head.
I thought the whole point of Corbyn, and what enthused people about him, was that he was radical and not centre-left, he was offering different, properly left solutions. For accuracy's sake, what is the dividing line between radical left and far left? (Yes, there can be a debate about the line between right and far-right too).
Corbyns 2017 and 2019 manifestos would not be dissimilar to that offered across Europe by Centre left Parties.
So all those supporters who felt he was offering a radical, fresh alternative basically undermined him by making him seem less like a boring old centre-left option?
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Corbyn far left my arse
Go boil your Centrist head.
Sorry I'll qualify that. Corbyn far left anti-semitic Putin toadying extremists.
Phil Wulrun lying centrist is responsible for all Tory failings as he preferred an extreme right Government to the moderate Socialism offered by Corbyn.
Phil and his centrists used anti Semitism lies as a factional tool and supported the election of apartheid supporting heirachy of racism implementing liar SKS.
Every element of your qualification is total bollocks Not far left not anti semitic and not Putin supporting.
Speaking of worse Corbyns, apparently he's still going.
Piers Corbyn crashes Extinction Rebellion church service in London as climate protesters begin several days of demos. Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s brother was thrown out of the prayer meeting. Piers says climate change does not exist. #ExtinctionRebellion @Piers_Corbyn https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1649376225553514498
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
It's probably likely to be more like 6% or 7%. But 5% is possible.
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Corbyn far left my arse
Go boil your Centrist head.
I thought the whole point of Corbyn, and what enthused people about him, was that he was radical and not centre-left, he was offering different, properly left solutions. For accuracy's sake, what is the dividing line between radical left and far left? (Yes, there can be a debate about the line between right and far-right too).
Corbyns 2017 and 2019 manifestos would not be dissimilar to that offered across Europe by Centre left Parties.
So all those supporters who felt he was offering a radical, fresh alternative basically undermined him by making him seem less like a boring old centre-left option?
In 2017 Corbyn offered an end to Austerity and redistribution of wealth as well as better public services via a moderate increase in taxes for the wealthiest. Hardly radical in European terms but compared to what Labour was saying pre Corbyn a radical change
Labour may need only a 5% lead in the popular vote to secure a GE majority.
eg. General election modelling using Electoral Calculus, using the new boundaries: GB: Con 35%, Lab 40%, LD 12%, Reform 3%, Green 3%. Assume a quarter of all electors are willing to vote tactically. Scotland: Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 8%, SNP 37%.
Result: Labour overall majority of 2, with 326 seats.
I think the extent of voters voting tactically against the Tories is much less v a Sunak led Tories than it was against a Johnson or Truss led Tories
The comparison that matters is with the situation at GE 2019.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022. What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
Corbyn far left my arse
Go boil your Centrist head.
I thought the whole point of Corbyn, and what enthused people about him, was that he was radical and not centre-left, he was offering different, properly left solutions. For accuracy's sake, what is the dividing line between radical left and far left? (Yes, there can be a debate about the line between right and far-right too).
Corbyns 2017 and 2019 manifestos would not be dissimilar to that offered across Europe by Centre left Parties.
So all those supporters who felt he was offering a radical, fresh alternative basically undermined him by making him seem less like a boring old centre-left option?
In 2017 Corbyn offered an end to Austerity and redistribution of wealth as well as better public services via a moderate increase in taxes for the wealthiest. Hardly radical in European terms but compared to what Labour was saying pre Corbyn a radical change
Depends which parts of Europe, certainly radical compares to say Switzerland. We also know in his heart Corbyn wanted to turn us into Cuba or Venezuela not Sweden or Denmark
"Dominic Raab sunk by row over Spanish forces in Gibraltar
Dominic Raab resigned on Friday after an official report found that he bullied a British ambassador said to have secretly proposed putting Spanish boots on the ground in Gibraltar during Brexit talks.
The Telegraph can reveal that the civil servant at the heart of the incident was Hugh Elliott, the British Ambassador to Spain.
Allies of Mr Raab have claimed that Mr Elliott went beyond the Cabinet-agreed position to never have Spanish officers permanently stationed in Gibraltar." (£)
I feel like the first part about settlement goes against the second bit. Seems to be all they've said is they'll go as far as Dominion, so offer a bit more than they go now the sides know you'll go at least that far.
Wow. Smartmatic just announced that it will not accept any settlement under $787 million from Fox & that it will need a “full retraction” of lies & misstatements by Fox. Smartmatic is not playing around here and they are about to make Fox find out. This is how it’s done.
Also important to note: “Smartmatic is ‘looking to take this case through trial’ & wants ‘the vindication of a jury verdict in their favor.’” Full story below
Yes: Dominion and Fox have set a price, and Smartmatic is saying "beat that, or we're going to trial".
The thing is, delightful as it would be to see Fox in court, there is no guarantee of success. The management of Smartmatic would surely rather accept $450m than lose in court.
Comments
Lots of orange diamonds around me this last week.
CON not so much. Especially in London!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Guardians_(Christopher_novel)
Not read it, but did enjoy The Death of Grass. A rare post (well kind during) apocalypse novel which didn't feel overly contrived.
I remember in 2015 seeing far more Labour posters than Conservative ones around but Cameron's Conservatives still won a majority
"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 45% (-)
CON: 31% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
REF: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)
via
@Savanta_UK
, 14 - 16 Apr"
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1649448668360060928
Savanta UK
@Savanta_UK
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention
📈14pt Labour lead
🌹Lab 45 (=)
🌳Con 31 (+2)
🔶LD 8 (-2)
➡️Reform 5 (=)
🎗️SNP 3 (=)
🌍Green 3 (=)
⬜️Other 4 (=)
2,237 UK adults, 14-16 April
(chg from 31 March - 2 April)
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1649437586069372928
I asked if SKS could deliver it in person as the stake would come in handy
Wow. Smartmatic just announced that it will not accept any settlement under $787 million from Fox & that it will need a “full retraction” of lies & misstatements by Fox. Smartmatic is not playing around here and they are about to make Fox find out. This is how it’s done.
Also important to note: “Smartmatic is ‘looking to take this case through trial’ & wants ‘the vindication of a jury verdict in their favor.’” Full story below
https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1649416349343416324?cxt=HHwWiICw1cjb8-MtAAAA
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=31&LAB=45&LIB=8&Reform=5&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.7&SCOTLAB=30&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=3.3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=39.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
You were not long ago trumpeting Conservative levelling up in South and West Yorkshire. Remind me how that's going today.
In contrast to 2019, LD supporters will no longer be put off voting for a Labour Party in the grip of Corbyn's far left extremists. And with the passing of time, there's already ample evidence that Labour supporters are no longer put off voting LD by memories of their role in facilitating Cameron's government, whereas in 2019 those memories were still fairly fresh.
On the Tory side, it's not particularly obvious to me that Sunak is any more popular now than Johnson was back in 2019. The comparison is with the Johnson of 2019, not the disgraced politician that Johnson had become by 2022.
What's more, there was organised tactical voting on the right in 2019, because the Brexit Party stood down in marginal Tory seats, whereas Reform won't be standing down in those seats next time.
What are you hoping they will do?
I haven't seen any posters for anyone else so far.
Go boil your Centrist head.
https://twitter.com/BarbaraRich_law/status/1649455542031581188/photo/2
Sentencing remarks give some voice to ordinary members of the public affected by protesters’ actions, here the closing of the Dartford Crossing road bridge
https://judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl
Some weird grammatical errors in parts though.
Phil and his centrists used anti Semitism lies as a factional tool and supported the election of apartheid supporting heirachy of racism implementing liar SKS.
Every element of your qualification is total bollocks Not far left not anti semitic and not Putin supporting.
Par for the course amongst lying centrist mind
Piers Corbyn crashes Extinction Rebellion church service in London as climate protesters begin several days of demos. Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s brother was thrown out of the prayer meeting. Piers says climate change does not exist. #ExtinctionRebellion @Piers_Corbyn
https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1649376225553514498
I wonder what he used to spend his time doing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLMjW4j25CE
Dominic Raab resigned on Friday after an official report found that he bullied a British ambassador said to have secretly proposed putting Spanish boots on the ground in Gibraltar during Brexit talks.
The Telegraph can reveal that the civil servant at the heart of the incident was Hugh Elliott, the British Ambassador to Spain.
Allies of Mr Raab have claimed that Mr Elliott went beyond the Cabinet-agreed position to never have Spanish officers permanently stationed in Gibraltar." (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/04/21/dominic-raab-sunk-row-over-spanish-forces-in-gibraltar/
The thing is, delightful as it would be to see Fox in court, there is no guarantee of success. The management of Smartmatic would surely rather accept $450m than lose in court.