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Criminal defendant Trump takes a tumble in the polls. – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2023 in General
imageCriminal defendant Trump takes a tumble in the polls. – politicalbetting.com

If this polling has it right then just a quarter of American adults now a favourable view of Donald Trump and this really puts into question whether he has any chance at all of making a comeback.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721
    First?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    edited April 2023
    So, the fact of the proceedings is not going down well, but it does not follow that there is any sympathy for Trump.

    EDIT: Darn it, pirate raid.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    3.85%

    I think you mean 38.5%

    Yes that's too tight for the Donald right now.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    3.85%

    I think you mean 38.5%

    Yes that's too tight for the Donald right now.

    Thanks. Fixed
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Mmm.
    But hasn't his chances of getting the nomination improved?
    If so, he looks likely to be one of two candidates. The other increasingly looking like being the sitting President. Who is therefore vulnerable to gas prices, the economy, terrorism and general events. Not to mention age and infirmity.
    If you think DJT will be the nominee, then 38.5% isn't unreasonable in a two horse race at all.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    I wonder if a small part of the reason for the drop is the sight of Trump being restrained, by the mores and formality of the court if not literally. The cop letting the door shut in his face, his quietly yessing and noing, uncertainty flickering across his big orange face; in his own parlance he looked like a PUSSY.
    Once the blustering, boorish magic is gone it aint coming back.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Still using Putin talking points:

    Who could blow up the Nord Streams?

    “I don’t want to cause trouble to our country, so I won’t answer ... I can tell who didn’t do this: Russia,” ex-US President Trump replied.
    [VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1646064307929587713?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    But hasn't his chances of getting the nomination improved?
    If so, he looks likely to be one of two candidates. The other increasingly looking like being the sitting President. Who is therefore vulnerable to gas prices, the economy, terrorism and general events. Not to mention age and infirmity.
    If you think DJT will be the nominee, then 38.5% isn't unreasonable in a two horse race at all.

    Not necessarily.
    It's a long way to the primaries, and if his ratings continue to slide, he's toast.

    His GOP rivals are a pack of hyenas circling a mangy old lion. At some point greed will overcome fear.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    But hasn't his chances of getting the nomination improved?
    If so, he looks likely to be one of two candidates. The other increasingly looking like being the sitting President. Who is therefore vulnerable to gas prices, the economy, terrorism and general events. Not to mention age and infirmity.
    If you think DJT will be the nominee, then 38.5% isn't unreasonable in a two horse race at all.

    I think Desantis will do well in Iowa and New Hampshire. My plan is to back the Donald for the nomination at that point.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Another audition for the GOP VP slot ?

    Tim Scott launching 2024 exploratory committee
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3945133-tim-scott-launching-2024-exploratory-committee/
  • Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    But hasn't his chances of getting the nomination improved?
    If so, he looks likely to be one of two candidates. The other increasingly looking like being the sitting President. Who is therefore vulnerable to gas prices, the economy, terrorism and general events. Not to mention age and infirmity.
    If you think DJT will be the nominee, then 38.5% isn't unreasonable in a two horse race at all.

    I think Desantis will do well in Iowa and New Hampshire. My plan is to back the Donald for the nomination at that point.
    The Marco Rubio moment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    I wonder if a small part of the reason for the drop is the sight of Trump being restrained, by the mores and formality of the court if not literally. The cop letting the door shut in his face, his quietly yessing and noing, uncertainty flickering across his big orange face; in his own parlance he looked like a PUSSY.
    Once the blustering, boorish magic is gone it aint coming back.

    But everyone cried real tears while they were arresting him.
    Honest.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Ooof, quite suddenly the storm has arrived....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    But hasn't his chances of getting the nomination improved?
    If so, he looks likely to be one of two candidates. The other increasingly looking like being the sitting President. Who is therefore vulnerable to gas prices, the economy, terrorism and general events. Not to mention age and infirmity.
    If you think DJT will be the nominee, then 38.5% isn't unreasonable in a two horse race at all.

    Not necessarily.
    It's a long way to the primaries, and if his ratings continue to slide, he's toast.

    His GOP rivals are a pack of hyenas circling a mangy old lion. At some point greed will overcome fear.
    Even in the scenario that Trump fails to win the GOP nomination, I'd expect most of the GOP hierarchy to be very gentle on Trump, because they will want to stop him from running as a third party candidate.

    People are normally put off a third-party run because of the massive expense leading to inevitable failure and ridicule, but for Trump it would probably be a net money maker, and he would get to blame the RINOs who had taken over the GOP, as well as the Democrats, for cheating him out of his certain election victory.

    If they go hard in criticising Trump during the nomination contest then it only increases the chances of him going for a third party run. Needless to say, if Trump stands as a third-party candidate then the Democrats canter to re-election.
  • Trump has two battles - secure the nomination, then secure the Presidency.

    Getting his collar felt absolutely helps with the former. He remains the principle figure in the GOP and the driver of all kinds of madness at federal and state level. We now have people working towards the Fuhrer Trump, implementing all kinds of crazy things which further tighten his grip on the movement.

    The problem for the GOP is that Trumpism is driving a big surge in centre / dem registration and participation as people rightly see this as the battle to save their democratic system and the country with it. So I can't see how any of this helps him secure the Presidency. Not that he was going to do so anyway against Biden.

    Tucker Carlson told viewers that now was not the time to give up their AR15s. Because a full-scale armed insurrection is the only route to the Presidency for DJT.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD has been away on family related matters. I think I read that his wife is a Vicar so Easter will have been very busy.

    Do you know @hyufd?

    Because I was a little concerned I checked and he is standing for District Council, so I'm guessing (but don't know) that he might just be keeping his head down.
    If you’re looking in, @HYUFD, best wishes for the May election. Any other PBers standing in May? If so, best wishes for you as well!
    I'm defending my seat on the Parish Council on my usual platform of Eco-Anarchism. Despite my highly disruptive insurgency I will almost certainly get re-elected because a) the daft old tories round here will vote for anybody who styles themselves Cdr ****, RN (Retd) and b) the charisma of Mrs DA who is my greatest political asset.

    Have a charming spouse is my advice to anybody wanting to get anywhere in local politics. It makes a huge difference as they can reach a different part of the electorate.
    And what flavour of parish council do you serve on? Dibley? An actually sane one? Or batshit crazy ego trip arguing pompously about dog poo bins like mine was?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Trump has two battles - secure the nomination, then secure the Presidency.

    Getting his collar felt absolutely helps with the former. He remains the principle figure in the GOP and the driver of all kinds of madness at federal and state level. We now have people working towards the Fuhrer Trump, implementing all kinds of crazy things which further tighten his grip on the movement.

    I think we need to be a little bit skeptical of the GOP polling. Right now nothing depends on it, and the other candidates aren't well known. If you're a GOP member and you think the libs are out to get your guy, when a pollster rings up and asks you about your vote I think you say you're going to support your guy. That doesn't mean it's what you'll choose when you have to actually decide who the best person is to get rid of Biden.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Trump has two battles - secure the nomination, then secure the Presidency.

    Getting his collar felt absolutely helps with the former. He remains the principle figure in the GOP and the driver of all kinds of madness at federal and state level. We now have people working towards the Fuhrer Trump, implementing all kinds of crazy things which further tighten his grip on the movement.

    I think we need to be a little bit skeptical of the GOP polling. Right now nothing depends on it, and the other candidates aren't well known. If you're a GOP member and you think the libs are out to get your guy, when a pollster rings up and asks you about your vote I think you say you're going to support your guy. That doesn't mean it's what you'll choose when you have to actually decide who the best person is to get rid of Biden.
    I remain sceptical of pretty much all US polling in pretty much all circumstances - for one thing, they seem incapable of getting a decent sample size. The poll in the header is 566 adults - not even registered voters let alone likely voters.
  • Trump has two battles - secure the nomination, then secure the Presidency.

    Getting his collar felt absolutely helps with the former. He remains the principle figure in the GOP and the driver of all kinds of madness at federal and state level. We now have people working towards the Fuhrer Trump, implementing all kinds of crazy things which further tighten his grip on the movement.

    I think we need to be a little bit skeptical of the GOP polling. Right now nothing depends on it, and the other candidates aren't well known. If you're a GOP member and you think the libs are out to get your guy, when a pollster rings up and asks you about your vote I think you say you're going to support your guy. That doesn't mean it's what you'll choose when you have to actually decide who the best person is to get rid of Biden.
    True - though you have to ask if anyone capable of securing the GOP nomination can beat Biden. The reality is that the GOP have disappeared down a rabbit hole which guarantees them a whooping at the GE. They are absolutely convinced theirs is the only way to save the country, but the majority of voters disagree.

    The Liz Cheney GWB wing of the party could defeat Biden, but they stand zero chance of securing the nomination. So its Trump vs someone trying to out-Trump Trump. And He is so far ahead of all of them that it would need Him to be jailed to stop him taking the nomination. At which point they are doomed. At which point the detailed planning to secure the presidency from the traitors begins.

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


  • Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Incorrect.

    The lady in the photo has been miscaptioned as "Christ"
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    There is a case to be made for low taxes and Treasury and IMF incompetence but what the flip this has to do with "woke culture" is anyone's guess. One can only assume Liz Truss uses it as clickbait.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,453

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Is this the same one who personally added tens of billions of debt interest to the UK government for a budget that had to be scrapped within weeks? Surely not....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140
    edited April 2023

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Incorrect.

    The lady in the photo has been miscaptioned as "Christ"
    She's certainly trying for a 'resurrection'. But I suspect it'll be more in the local Scottish sense - the digging up of corpses to sell to anatomists.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    edited April 2023

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    There is a case to be made for low taxes and Treasury and IMF incompetence but what the flip this has to do with "woke culture" is anyone's guess. One can only assume Liz Truss uses it as clickbait.
    Woke is awoke - seeing that there are people in need and doing something about it.

    If we no longer give a shit about the poor, the sick, the dispossessed etc then we don't need to provide support for them which means less spending and thus less taxes.

    If we have a rigorously right wing approach to society we can reduce taxes for the rich by simply securing the poor in ghettos. This is a speech in the US, so it will fit right in. In the UK we have the problem of the poor ending up living on the streets which is distressing. But in America? Jail them for profit.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Is this the same one who personally added tens of billions of debt interest to the UK government for a budget that had to be scrapped within weeks? Surely not....
    Bit unkind using a photo of her in front of No 10 to remind us all.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Will be interesting to find out how much Liz Truss will be paid for this speech. More or less than Theresa May?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,140

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    There is a case to be made for low taxes and Treasury and IMF incompetence but what the flip this has to do with "woke culture" is anyone's guess. One can only assume Liz Truss uses it as clickbait.
    Woke is awoke - seeing that there are people in need and doing something about it.

    If we no longer give a shit about the poor, the sick, the dispossessed etc then we don't need to provide support for them which means less spending and thus less taxes.

    If we have a rigorously right wing approach to society we can reduce taxes for the rich by simply securing the poor in ghettos. This is a speech in the US, so it will fit right in. In the UK we have the problem of the poor ending up living on the streets which is distressing. But in America? Jail them for profit.
    We do also have profit-making prisons in GB.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,168

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    There is a case to be made for low taxes and Treasury and IMF incompetence but what the flip this has to do with "woke culture" is anyone's guess. One can only assume Liz Truss uses it as clickbait.
    Blaming everything on "woke culture"? She'd fit in well here.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Incorrect.

    The lady in the photo has been miscaptioned as "Christ"
    Though Christ is said to have come back from the dead, hard to see Truss doing the same.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Told ya
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Surely this is just an opening salvo in the fight to become LotO after the next election?
  • What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I know I have satirised this as the Rise of Gilead. But you look at what the GOP are actually enacting in the states they control - especially when they have a super-majority - and the parallels to the fiction are clear.

    In fiction Gilead was an overly-religious theocracy. Under the surface the abuse of scripture was added as a means of control, with none of the Commanders who created it actually believing in it. Is that not evangelical "Christianity" in America, where their Bible is all the harsh bits of both testaments that condemn gays and women and none of that woke Jesus love thy neighbour stuff?

    Trump cannot win the general election fairly. Trump cannot cheat and try to rig the election. So it will need to be a coup. Actually have some swing states on board with submitting the "correct" result (none of the Georgia fiasco this time) and back it up with a Second Amendment Patriots Militia. Physically stop the traitors voting knowing the state won't act until it is too late.

    My fascination with the Gilead world isn't so much inside Gilead as outside. The rump US government operating from Alaska and Canada. Relations with the rest of the world who have utterly condemned it as an illegal state until they realise there is trade money to be won. Etc.

    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    There is a case to be made for low taxes and Treasury and IMF incompetence but what the flip this has to do with "woke culture" is anyone's guess. One can only assume Liz Truss uses it as clickbait.
    Blaming everything on "woke culture"? She'd fit in well here.
    And, let's face it, in the States. If she can paint herself as a victim of the forces of woke then she could potentially make good money there.

    Maybe she'll be Trump's lapdog this time round, rather than Farage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Yep, 3.85 is too short for Trump. I'd need 12 to back him. I think punters are doing the mechanistic, context free, two step calculation; front runner for the GOP nomination, then if he gets that he must have a decent chance in a 2 horse race. I have a different way of looking at it. He couldn't win as the incumbent, is even more unpopular now, has been criminally indicted with more serious charges to come, is incapable of presenting himself in a way that might broaden his appeal. Bottom line, not enough people would vote for him now to win the WH and this number will decline not grow. Ergo he will not be elected president in 2024. The destination is known. However the ride from here to there could go all over the place. There will be much popcorn is my only confident prediction.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Incorrect.

    The lady in the photo has been miscaptioned as "Christ"
    Though Christ is said to have come back from the dead, hard to see Truss doing the same.
    She's not the messiah!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,014
    I mean, on these numbers he's not winning a General is he?

    Clear lay. DYOR.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD has been away on family related matters. I think I read that his wife is a Vicar so Easter will have been very busy.

    Do you know @hyufd?

    Because I was a little concerned I checked and he is standing for District Council, so I'm guessing (but don't know) that he might just be keeping his head down.
    If you’re looking in, @HYUFD, best wishes for the May election. Any other PBers standing in May? If so, best wishes for you as well!
    I'm defending my seat on the Parish Council on my usual platform of Eco-Anarchism. Despite my highly disruptive insurgency I will almost certainly get re-elected because a) the daft old tories round here will vote for anybody who styles themselves Cdr ****, RN (Retd) and b) the charisma of Mrs DA who is my greatest political asset.

    Have a charming spouse is my advice to anybody wanting to get anywhere in local politics. It makes a huge difference as they can reach a different part of the electorate.
    And what flavour of parish council do you serve on? Dibley? An actually sane one? Or batshit crazy ego trip arguing pompously about dog poo bins like mine was?
    Pretty much the latter. My immediate political goal is to filibuster the Finance Cte to prevent a penny being spent on coronation shit then blame the subsequent rancor on somebody else.

    My greatest triumph last year was hoisting a Pride flag then moving the cleats so far up the pole that it couldn't be lowered without a ladder. Which none of the doddery old farts dared ascend.
    I had fun working with the League of Gentlemen independents who still run Thornaby Town Council. I seemed to always manage to inflame their hefe by asking awkward questions (such as huge cost overruns) which usually led to a 10 minute political rant from him to which I would smile and invite him to answer the question as it is public money and his refusal to answer looks dodgy.

    But largely gave up when we exposed the public money being spent by them to produce a town magazine which prints highly partisan political stuff. And both plod and the borough council (legally responsible after the abolition of the Standards Board) said "they can't do that. But we won't stop them". So "if you have a complaint go to the police" from the Mayor was basically bullet proof because the police weren't interested.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,014
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD has been away on family related matters. I think I read that his wife is a Vicar so Easter will have been very busy.

    Do you know @hyufd?

    Because I was a little concerned I checked and he is standing for District Council, so I'm guessing (but don't know) that he might just be keeping his head down.
    If you’re looking in, @HYUFD, best wishes for the May election. Any other PBers standing in May? If so, best wishes for you as well!
    I'm defending my seat on the Parish Council on my usual platform of Eco-Anarchism. Despite my highly disruptive insurgency I will almost certainly get re-elected because a) the daft old tories round here will vote for anybody who styles themselves Cdr ****, RN (Retd) and b) the charisma of Mrs DA who is my greatest political asset.

    Have a charming spouse is my advice to anybody wanting to get anywhere in local politics. It makes a huge difference as they can reach a different part of the electorate.
    And what flavour of parish council do you serve on? Dibley? An actually sane one? Or batshit crazy ego trip arguing pompously about dog poo bins like mine was?
    Pretty much the latter. My immediate political goal is to filibuster the Finance Cte to prevent a penny being spent on coronation shit then blame the subsequent rancor on somebody else.

    My greatest triumph last year was hoisting a Pride flag then moving the cleats so far up the pole that it couldn't be lowered without a ladder. Which none of the doddery old farts dared ascend.
    Are you primarily motivated by provoking others?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I know I have satirised this as the Rise of Gilead. But you look at what the GOP are actually enacting in the states they control - especially when they have a super-majority - and the parallels to the fiction are clear.

    In fiction Gilead was an overly-religious theocracy. Under the surface the abuse of scripture was added as a means of control, with none of the Commanders who created it actually believing in it. Is that not evangelical "Christianity" in America, where their Bible is all the harsh bits of both testaments that condemn gays and women and none of that woke Jesus love thy neighbour stuff?

    Trump cannot win the general election fairly. Trump cannot cheat and try to rig the election. So it will need to be a coup. Actually have some swing states on board with submitting the "correct" result (none of the Georgia fiasco this time) and back it up with a Second Amendment Patriots Militia. Physically stop the traitors voting knowing the state won't act until it is too late.

    My fascination with the Gilead world isn't so much inside Gilead as outside. The rump US government operating from Alaska and Canada. Relations with the rest of the world who have utterly condemned it as an illegal state until they realise there is trade money to be won. Etc.

    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?
    I don't know how you stop being paranoid, but for your sake I really hope you find a way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Will be interesting to find out how much Liz Truss will be paid for this speech. More or less than Theresa May?

    And if so who on earth is paying her.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Well, Truss probably has bills to pay.

    Not sure I'd put money on her coming back, though.
  • Driver said:

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I know I have satirised this as the Rise of Gilead. But you look at what the GOP are actually enacting in the states they control - especially when they have a super-majority - and the parallels to the fiction are clear.

    In fiction Gilead was an overly-religious theocracy. Under the surface the abuse of scripture was added as a means of control, with none of the Commanders who created it actually believing in it. Is that not evangelical "Christianity" in America, where their Bible is all the harsh bits of both testaments that condemn gays and women and none of that woke Jesus love thy neighbour stuff?

    Trump cannot win the general election fairly. Trump cannot cheat and try to rig the election. So it will need to be a coup. Actually have some swing states on board with submitting the "correct" result (none of the Georgia fiasco this time) and back it up with a Second Amendment Patriots Militia. Physically stop the traitors voting knowing the state won't act until it is too late.

    My fascination with the Gilead world isn't so much inside Gilead as outside. The rump US government operating from Alaska and Canada. Relations with the rest of the world who have utterly condemned it as an illegal state until they realise there is trade money to be won. Etc.

    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?
    I don't know how you stop being paranoid, but for your sake I really hope you find a way.
    I'm not paranoid. I am describing what has already happened and extrapolating forward. Paranoia is where there is no basis in reality and its all imaginary.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Trump has two battles - secure the nomination, then secure the Presidency.

    Getting his collar felt absolutely helps with the former. He remains the principle figure in the GOP and the driver of all kinds of madness at federal and state level. We now have people working towards the Fuhrer Trump, implementing all kinds of crazy things which further tighten his grip on the movement.

    I think we need to be a little bit skeptical of the GOP polling. Right now nothing depends on it, and the other candidates aren't well known. If you're a GOP member and you think the libs are out to get your guy, when a pollster rings up and asks you about your vote I think you say you're going to support your guy. That doesn't mean it's what you'll choose when you have to actually decide who the best person is to get rid of Biden.
    True - though you have to ask if anyone capable of securing the GOP nomination can beat Biden. The reality is that the GOP have disappeared down a rabbit hole which guarantees them a whooping at the GE. They are absolutely convinced theirs is the only way to save the country, but the majority of voters disagree.

    The Liz Cheney GWB wing of the party could defeat Biden, but they stand zero chance of securing the nomination. So its Trump vs someone trying to out-Trump Trump. And He is so far ahead of all of them that it would need Him to be jailed to stop him taking the nomination. At which point they are doomed. At which point the detailed planning to secure the presidency from the traitors begins.

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?
    I agree it's going to be hard to beat Trump without attacking Trump. But the time will come for that.

    I think if you picked a GOP senator or governor at random they'd have at least a 40% chance of beating Biden. Tilting one way to win over your base of lunatics then leaning the other for the general election is normal politics. And assuming the Dem side is effectively uncontested, independent politics enthusiasts will be voting in the GOP primary where their state's rules allow.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    dixiedean said:

    Mmm.
    But hasn't his chances of getting the nomination improved?
    If so, he looks likely to be one of two candidates. The other increasingly looking like being the sitting President. Who is therefore vulnerable to gas prices, the economy, terrorism and general events. Not to mention age and infirmity.
    If you think DJT will be the nominee, then 38.5% isn't unreasonable in a two horse race at all.

    I don't think it improves his chances of getting the nomination. His chances were already good because none of the challengers has so far made enough of a mark. De Santis lacks the charisma and Nikki Haley and Tim Scott are also-rans.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,993
    Driver said:

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I know I have satirised this as the Rise of Gilead. But you look at what the GOP are actually enacting in the states they control - especially when they have a super-majority - and the parallels to the fiction are clear.

    In fiction Gilead was an overly-religious theocracy. Under the surface the abuse of scripture was added as a means of control, with none of the Commanders who created it actually believing in it. Is that not evangelical "Christianity" in America, where their Bible is all the harsh bits of both testaments that condemn gays and women and none of that woke Jesus love thy neighbour stuff?

    Trump cannot win the general election fairly. Trump cannot cheat and try to rig the election. So it will need to be a coup. Actually have some swing states on board with submitting the "correct" result (none of the Georgia fiasco this time) and back it up with a Second Amendment Patriots Militia. Physically stop the traitors voting knowing the state won't act until it is too late.

    My fascination with the Gilead world isn't so much inside Gilead as outside. The rump US government operating from Alaska and Canada. Relations with the rest of the world who have utterly condemned it as an illegal state until they realise there is trade money to be won. Etc.

    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?
    I don't know how you stop being paranoid, but for your sake I really hope you find a way.
    How is fear over a coup paranoia when there were very active efforts to subvert the election last time? And it was stopped last time by state level Republican election officials who refused to go along with it - officials who in many cases have now been replace by MAGA types.

    There seems to be this quaint view that America is somehow immune to a lapse into autocracy that has happened in countless other democracies around the world. Even though all the warning lights political scientists who study these things have identified are flashing red.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    edited April 2023

    Driver said:

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I know I have satirised this as the Rise of Gilead. But you look at what the GOP are actually enacting in the states they control - especially when they have a super-majority - and the parallels to the fiction are clear.

    In fiction Gilead was an overly-religious theocracy. Under the surface the abuse of scripture was added as a means of control, with none of the Commanders who created it actually believing in it. Is that not evangelical "Christianity" in America, where their Bible is all the harsh bits of both testaments that condemn gays and women and none of that woke Jesus love thy neighbour stuff?

    Trump cannot win the general election fairly. Trump cannot cheat and try to rig the election. So it will need to be a coup. Actually have some swing states on board with submitting the "correct" result (none of the Georgia fiasco this time) and back it up with a Second Amendment Patriots Militia. Physically stop the traitors voting knowing the state won't act until it is too late.

    My fascination with the Gilead world isn't so much inside Gilead as outside. The rump US government operating from Alaska and Canada. Relations with the rest of the world who have utterly condemned it as an illegal state until they realise there is trade money to be won. Etc.

    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?
    I don't know how you stop being paranoid, but for your sake I really hope you find a way.
    I'm not paranoid. I am describing what has already happened and extrapolating forward. Paranoia is where there is no basis in reality and its all imaginary.
    Doing that in late 2020 would have led to the conclusion that Trump would be the president today.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,014

    This thread neatly summarises why I will never join a parish council.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Kevin Costner should run for the Republican nomination. He would win. He would probably be a much better President than any other Republican - apart from Schwarzenegger (who can't run). Yes, I'm being flippant, but the return of small government, low tax, get out of the way, patriotic, constitutional Republicanism would be the best possible thing that could happen to the US right now. None of the current GOP contenders represent it, unfortunately.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,014
    How is Biden now back at over 1.41 for the nom when he's said he's going to run?

    I can't stand it anymore - have slapped some more down.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?

    He will claim victory very early on the night without any regard to the actual result. The coup will come if the result is close and one or more swing states with sympathetic judiciaries (Wisconsin?) can overturn the result in their state and send alternate electors.

    As much as I would love to see it for entertainment value there isn't a route through armed insurrection to make him POTUS as the Federal government has AH-1Zs and the MAGA Milisha have bad knees and unmanaged diabetes.
    Three phases to the Patriot uprising:

    1 Bar traitors from voting. That is firstly by removing polling stations to make for long queues and a long journey to vote for democrats - already happened last time surely will just scale up this time. And have armed guards to drive away voters - again that happened last time in a few places. Federal won't be able to get involved quickly enough. State will be GOP run and legal immediate appeals to remove the militias will mysteriously not be heard until too late in the day to make a difference

    2. Barricade the state house to ensure the representatives inside do the right thing. Again this has already happened - just do a lot of it next time. Regardless of what votes may have been cast / counted, ensure that shitkicker states send Trump delegates. With an armed escort to the electoral college

    3. Suggest to RINO members of the US Congress that now is the time for every good man to come to the aid of the party. No wussing this time. Again with a large armed militia outside. The Federal Government can issue orders to the armed forces to crush the militia. But if Congress is saying A and the White House is saying B do you want to get involved in a political row? There's a coup on, which side is the coup?

    Driver accused me of paranoia. The GOP *have already done all of these things*.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Surely this is just an opening salvo in the fight to become LotO after the next election?
    Trussism is like communism, in that we've just not done it right yet ?
  • Driver said:

    Driver said:

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I know I have satirised this as the Rise of Gilead. But you look at what the GOP are actually enacting in the states they control - especially when they have a super-majority - and the parallels to the fiction are clear.

    In fiction Gilead was an overly-religious theocracy. Under the surface the abuse of scripture was added as a means of control, with none of the Commanders who created it actually believing in it. Is that not evangelical "Christianity" in America, where their Bible is all the harsh bits of both testaments that condemn gays and women and none of that woke Jesus love thy neighbour stuff?

    Trump cannot win the general election fairly. Trump cannot cheat and try to rig the election. So it will need to be a coup. Actually have some swing states on board with submitting the "correct" result (none of the Georgia fiasco this time) and back it up with a Second Amendment Patriots Militia. Physically stop the traitors voting knowing the state won't act until it is too late.

    My fascination with the Gilead world isn't so much inside Gilead as outside. The rump US government operating from Alaska and Canada. Relations with the rest of the world who have utterly condemned it as an illegal state until they realise there is trade money to be won. Etc.

    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?
    I don't know how you stop being paranoid, but for your sake I really hope you find a way.
    I'm not paranoid. I am describing what has already happened and extrapolating forward. Paranoia is where there is no basis in reality and its all imaginary.
    Doing that in late 2020 would have led to the conclusion that Trump would be the president today.
    It was close. Too many GOP states had officials who refused to yield to the pressure. Said officials now replaced by Trumpers. And the actual insurrection itself? Remember the footage of the handful of guards pointing guns at the chamber door? Remember how Pence managed to slip away through luck?

    Lets assume that they had captured Pence. Pelosi. A few congressmen. With Georgia and a few other key states actually sending competing slates of electors. Trump *could* have remained President.

    And they have learned the lessons of last time. Already replacing officials. Already using supermajorities to expel dissident members and pass enabling laws...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, in Truss' defence, she didn't kill tens of millions of people and consign a similar number to slave labour camps.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited April 2023

    Kevin Costner should run for the Republican nomination. He would win. He would probably be a much better President than any other Republican - apart from Schwarzenegger (who can't run). Yes, I'm being flippant, but the return of small government, low tax, get out of the way, patriotic, constitutional Republicanism would be the best possible thing that could happen to the US right now. None of the current GOP contenders represent it, unfortunately.

    This is the thing about when people look at DeSantis or whoever and say there's no plausible candidate who could beat Trump. Trump wasn't a plausible candidate but he still won the GOP nomination. You don't have to be well-known yet, and or if you are well-known you don't have to be well-known as a politician. If the GOP primary electorate decide they don't fancy their chances running a candidate with 25% favourability who got out-vote-rigged by a dementia sufferer, somebody will show up to take the job.
  • Kevin Costner should run for the Republican nomination. He would win. He would probably be a much better President than any other Republican - apart from Schwarzenegger (who can't run). Yes, I'm being flippant, but the return of small government, low tax, get out of the way, patriotic, constitutional Republicanism would be the best possible thing that could happen to the US right now. None of the current GOP contenders represent it, unfortunately.

    He wouldn't get the Republican nomination. But run a Republican as an independent foil to a batshit GOP candidate? Yeah why not. Who wants the gig?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    edited April 2023

    Dura_Ace said:



    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?

    He will claim victory very early on the night without any regard to the actual result. The coup will come if the result is close and one or more swing states with sympathetic judiciaries (Wisconsin?) can overturn the result in their state and send alternate electors.

    As much as I would love to see it for entertainment value there isn't a route through armed insurrection to make him POTUS as the Federal government has AH-1Zs and the MAGA Milisha have bad knees and unmanaged diabetes.
    Three phases to the Patriot uprising:

    1 Bar traitors from voting. That is firstly by removing polling stations to make for long queues and a long journey to vote for democrats - already happened last time surely will just scale up this time. And have armed guards to drive away voters - again that happened last time in a few places. Federal won't be able to get involved quickly enough. State will be GOP run and legal immediate appeals to remove the militias will mysteriously not be heard until too late in the day to make a difference

    2. Barricade the state house to ensure the representatives inside do the right thing. Again this has already happened - just do a lot of it next time. Regardless of what votes may have been cast / counted, ensure that shitkicker states send Trump delegates. With an armed escort to the electoral college

    3. Suggest to RINO members of the US Congress that now is the time for every good man to come to the aid of the party. No wussing this time. Again with a large armed militia outside. The Federal Government can issue orders to the armed forces to crush the militia. But if Congress is saying A and the White House is saying B do you want to get involved in a political row? There's a coup on, which side is the coup?

    Driver accused me of paranoia. The GOP *have already done all of these things*.
    On point 1, you're assuming that the Dems and the tech billionaires buying turnout won't more than make up for that - it did in 2020.

    Point 2 isn't worthy of responding to due to choice of language.

    And point 3, you might remember that last time the "insurrection" was nothing more than an impotent eruption of angst, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that it would be any more effective next time when Trump would have lost by more.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    DougSeal said:

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Told ya
    Not as dumb as you make out by the looks of it Doug
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Mr. B, in Truss' defence, she didn't kill tens of millions of people and consign a similar number to slave labour camps.

    …that we know about
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Dura_Ace said:



    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?

    He will claim victory very early on the night without any regard to the actual result. The coup will come if the result is close and one or more swing states with sympathetic judiciaries (Wisconsin?) can overturn the result in their state and send alternate electors.

    As much as I would love to see it for entertainment value there isn't a route through armed insurrection to make him POTUS as the Federal government has AH-1Zs and the MAGA Milisha have bad knees and unmanaged diabetes.
    Three phases to the Patriot uprising:

    1 Bar traitors from voting. That is firstly by removing polling stations to make for long queues and a long journey to vote for democrats - already happened last time surely will just scale up this time. And have armed guards to drive away voters - again that happened last time in a few places. Federal won't be able to get involved quickly enough. State will be GOP run and legal immediate appeals to remove the militias will mysteriously not be heard until too late in the day to make a difference

    2. Barricade the state house to ensure the representatives inside do the right thing. Again this has already happened - just do a lot of it next time. Regardless of what votes may have been cast / counted, ensure that shitkicker states send Trump delegates. With an armed escort to the electoral college

    3. Suggest to RINO members of the US Congress that now is the time for every good man to come to the aid of the party. No wussing this time. Again with a large armed militia outside. The Federal Government can issue orders to the armed forces to crush the militia. But if Congress is saying A and the White House is saying B do you want to get involved in a political row? There's a coup on, which side is the coup?

    Driver accused me of paranoia. The GOP *have already done all of these things*.
    DJT should give you job instead of that cum stain Jared.
  • Will be interesting to find out how much Liz Truss will be paid for this speech. More or less than Theresa May?

    Good morning

    I would expect she will need to pay people to listen to her rather than the other way round !!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Dura_Ace said:



    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?

    He will claim victory very early on the night without any regard to the actual result. The coup will come if the result is close and one or more swing states with sympathetic judiciaries (Wisconsin?) can overturn the result in their state and send alternate electors.

    As much as I would love to see it for entertainment value there isn't a route through armed insurrection to make him POTUS as the Federal government has AH-1Zs and the MAGA Milisha have bad knees and unmanaged diabetes.
    The GOP just lost control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

    The plan is presumably to go with the "independent state legislature theory", bypassing all state courts, and kick the problem up to Thomas, Alito et al.
    The state legislature is sufficiently gerrymandered to give the GOP a majority to pass any old bull.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/106th_Wisconsin_Legislature
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?

    He will claim victory very early on the night without any regard to the actual result. The coup will come if the result is close and one or more swing states with sympathetic judiciaries (Wisconsin?) can overturn the result in their state and send alternate electors.

    As much as I would love to see it for entertainment value there isn't a route through armed insurrection to make him POTUS as the Federal government has AH-1Zs and the MAGA Milisha have bad knees and unmanaged diabetes.
    Three phases to the Patriot uprising:

    1 Bar traitors from voting. That is firstly by removing polling stations to make for long queues and a long journey to vote for democrats - already happened last time surely will just scale up this time. And have armed guards to drive away voters - again that happened last time in a few places. Federal won't be able to get involved quickly enough. State will be GOP run and legal immediate appeals to remove the militias will mysteriously not be heard until too late in the day to make a difference

    2. Barricade the state house to ensure the representatives inside do the right thing. Again this has already happened - just do a lot of it next time. Regardless of what votes may have been cast / counted, ensure that shitkicker states send Trump delegates. With an armed escort to the electoral college

    3. Suggest to RINO members of the US Congress that now is the time for every good man to come to the aid of the party. No wussing this time. Again with a large armed militia outside. The Federal Government can issue orders to the armed forces to crush the militia. But if Congress is saying A and the White House is saying B do you want to get involved in a political row? There's a coup on, which side is the coup?

    Driver accused me of paranoia. The GOP *have already done all of these things*.
    DJT should give you job instead of that cum stain Jared.
    I do live near to one of his Golf Courses! Could dial into the meetings...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Interesting and objective analysis of the local election prospects for Labour:

    https://labourlist.org/2023/04/local-election-2023-results-councils-good-labour-starmer/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842



    It was close. Too many GOP states had officials who refused to yield to the pressure. Said officials now replaced by Trumpers. And the actual insurrection itself? Remember the footage of the handful of guards pointing guns at the chamber door? Remember how Pence managed to slip away through luck?

    Lets assume that they had captured Pence. Pelosi. A few congressmen. With Georgia and a few other key states actually sending competing slates of electors. Trump *could* have remained President.

    And they have learned the lessons of last time. Already replacing officials. Already using supermajorities to expel dissident members and pass enabling laws...

    Never seen anyone as cucked as Pence. If Pence walked in on Trump & Mrs Pence, Mike Pence would apologise, head downstairs and brew coffee for them both.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited April 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD has been away on family related matters. I think I read that his wife is a Vicar so Easter will have been very busy.

    Do you know @hyufd?

    Because I was a little concerned I checked and he is standing for District Council, so I'm guessing (but don't know) that he might just be keeping his head down.
    If you’re looking in, @HYUFD, best wishes for the May election. Any other PBers standing in May? If so, best wishes for you as well!
    I'm defending my seat on the Parish Council on my usual platform of Eco-Anarchism. Despite my highly disruptive insurgency I will almost certainly get re-elected because a) the daft old tories round here will vote for anybody who styles themselves Cdr ****, RN (Retd) and b) the charisma of Mrs DA who is my greatest political asset.

    Have a charming spouse is my advice to anybody wanting to get anywhere in local politics. It makes a huge difference as they can reach a different part of the electorate.
    And what flavour of parish council do you serve on? Dibley? An actually sane one? Or batshit crazy ego trip arguing pompously about dog poo bins like mine was?
    Pretty much the latter. My immediate political goal is to filibuster the Finance Cte to prevent a penny being spent on coronation shit then blame the subsequent rancor on somebody else.

    My greatest triumph last year was hoisting a Pride flag then moving the cleats so far up the pole that it couldn't be lowered without a ladder. Which none of the doddery old farts dared ascend.
    Too obvious. Why not support spending on the coronation but steer it towards a celebration of the King's hatred of intensive farming, glass and concrete buildings, and other royal wokery?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited April 2023

    Mr. B, in Truss' defence, she didn't kill tens of millions of people and consign a similar number to slave labour camps.

    No, she increased interest rates by a few basis points more than they increased in France over the same time period.

    Also she had 38 days instead of 70 years to prove herself.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Is the US to France what the EU was to Britain? This enormous, bossy, interfering juggernaut that we need to free ourselves of in spite of any broader geopolitical context?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Mr. B, in Truss' defence, she didn't kill tens of millions of people and consign a similar number to slave labour camps.

    Fair - but on the other hand, she only had a month and a half at it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited April 2023
    While out walking the dog I was thinking about the last thread and the video taking the mickey out of people doing travel shows.

    Much of humour is dependent upon stereotyping and exaggerating those stereotypes which is what makes them funny. This is what this video did and going back in time what Constable Savage did or Spinal Tap did. One of the best example is the Big Bang Theory which has just about every stereotype in it (dumb blond, Jew, Indian, nerd, catholic, evangelical christian, etc, etc). All the humour is based around these and not offensive to normal people.

    Casino was happy with all the stereotypes except the 'middle aged white man'. Why was only that one a problem?

    Personally I enjoy a good irish joke, gay joke, jewish joke, mother-in-law joke, asian joke, black joke, etc, etc. We hear all of them everyday on the TV. However I don't assume the irish are stupid, all gays are camp, jews are mean, mother-in-laws are tyrants, etc, etc.

    It is normally pretty obvious if someone is a homophobe or racist or whether they are just enjoying a harmless joke. It is pretty clear to most of us when someone is being offensive in the jokes they tell. In our household we make English/Scottish jokes against each other all the time (my wife is Scottish), but neither of us thinks we are being serious.

    Honestly the extreme woke and the extreme anti woke are as nutty as each other and are oversensitive and lack a sense of humour and more importantly spot stuff that just doesn't exist.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I don't think so. Capitalists do like the rule of law, except where it interferes in their actions and profiteering.

    A Trump kleptocracy will be a Klondike for carpet baggers and their henchmen wanting to rip off the poor and despoil the environment.

    There is no shortage of evidence across the world of this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Pulpstar said:



    It was close. Too many GOP states had officials who refused to yield to the pressure. Said officials now replaced by Trumpers. And the actual insurrection itself? Remember the footage of the handful of guards pointing guns at the chamber door? Remember how Pence managed to slip away through luck?

    Lets assume that they had captured Pence. Pelosi. A few congressmen. With Georgia and a few other key states actually sending competing slates of electors. Trump *could* have remained President.

    And they have learned the lessons of last time. Already replacing officials. Already using supermajorities to expel dissident members and pass enabling laws...

    Never seen anyone as cucked as Pence. If Pence walked in on Trump & Mrs Pence, Mike Pence would apologise, head downstairs and brew coffee for them both.
    He's a strange one.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/11/republicans-face-reckoning-young-voters-00091453
    ...The party’s divides on the issue of abortion have erupted into clearer view since last week’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race and Friday’s ruling by the Trump-appointed Texas federal judge on mifepristone. Within hours of the ruling, the only likely 2024 GOP candidate to issue a statement of support was former Vice President Mike Pence. No other GOP candidates have commented on the matter...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Dura_Ace said:



    How do we stop this? A very significant proportion of Trump voters last time genuinely believe he won! They won't allow the election and the country to be stolen a second time, will they?

    He will claim victory very early on the night without any regard to the actual result. The coup will come if the result is close and one or more swing states with sympathetic judiciaries (Wisconsin?) can overturn the result in their state and send alternate electors.

    As much as I would love to see it for entertainment value there isn't a route through armed insurrection to make him POTUS as the Federal government has AH-1Zs and the MAGA Milisha have bad knees and unmanaged diabetes.
    Three phases to the Patriot uprising:

    1 Bar traitors from voting. That is firstly by removing polling stations to make for long queues and a long journey to vote for democrats - already happened last time surely will just scale up this time. And have armed guards to drive away voters - again that happened last time in a few places. Federal won't be able to get involved quickly enough. State will be GOP run and legal immediate appeals to remove the militias will mysteriously not be heard until too late in the day to make a difference

    2. Barricade the state house to ensure the representatives inside do the right thing. Again this has already happened - just do a lot of it next time. Regardless of what votes may have been cast / counted, ensure that shitkicker states send Trump delegates. With an armed escort to the electoral college

    3. Suggest to RINO members of the US Congress that now is the time for every good man to come to the aid of the party. No wussing this time. Again with a large armed militia outside. The Federal Government can issue orders to the armed forces to crush the militia. But if Congress is saying A and the White House is saying B do you want to get involved in a political row? There's a coup on, which side is the coup?

    Driver accused me of paranoia. The GOP *have already done all of these things*.

    The point about the markets being the last bulwark of US democracy is actually very well made. If there is some kind of Trump-led coup, capital flight will be immediate and it will be on a scale never seen before in human history. Capitalism requires an independent court system. You cannot have an independent court system without the rule of law. Buy shares in Canada, Australia, Japan and Western Europe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Incorrect.

    The lady in the photo has been miscaptioned as "Christ"
    Though Christ is said to have come back from the dead, hard to see Truss doing the same.
    I was going to say, she's missed her chance this year.

    But then I thought - Russia...their Easter is THIS Sunday...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD has been away on family related matters. I think I read that his wife is a Vicar so Easter will have been very busy.

    Do you know @hyufd?

    Because I was a little concerned I checked and he is standing for District Council, so I'm guessing (but don't know) that he might just be keeping his head down.
    If you’re looking in, @HYUFD, best wishes for the May election. Any other PBers standing in May? If so, best wishes for you as well!
    I'm defending my seat on the Parish Council on my usual platform of Eco-Anarchism. Despite my highly disruptive insurgency I will almost certainly get re-elected because a) the daft old tories round here will vote for anybody who styles themselves Cdr ****, RN (Retd) and b) the charisma of Mrs DA who is my greatest political asset.

    Have a charming spouse is my advice to anybody wanting to get anywhere in local politics. It makes a huge difference as they can reach a different part of the electorate.
    Thanks, Fairlired! I'm standing for re-election for Waverley Borough Council (Binscombe and Charterhouse - two previously separate wards now merged into one big one), as leader of the small Labour group and executive member for housing strategy (it's a Lib/Lab/Green/Residents coalition). It's a straight fight between slates - three Tories trying to regain former seats vs one each of Lab, LibDem and Green. Binscombe is a residential suburb, with lots of semis; Charterhouse is best-known for the public school, and has some hardcore Tory retiree areas but also a high proportion of graduates who tend to be left of centre (my Town Council Labour running-mate is a distinguished professor, https://misr.jpl.nasa.gov/about-us/science-team/jan-peter-muller/).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Pulpstar said:



    It was close. Too many GOP states had officials who refused to yield to the pressure. Said officials now replaced by Trumpers. And the actual insurrection itself? Remember the footage of the handful of guards pointing guns at the chamber door? Remember how Pence managed to slip away through luck?

    Lets assume that they had captured Pence. Pelosi. A few congressmen. With Georgia and a few other key states actually sending competing slates of electors. Trump *could* have remained President.

    And they have learned the lessons of last time. Already replacing officials. Already using supermajorities to expel dissident members and pass enabling laws...

    Never seen anyone as cucked as Pence. If Pence walked in on Trump & Mrs Pence, Mike Pence would apologise, head downstairs and brew coffee for them both.
    I bet he's bottling up all the anger up, it'll all come flooding out the day after the Iowa Caucuses.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Foxy said:

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I don't think so. Capitalists do like the rule of law, except where it interferes in their actions and profiteering.

    A Trump kleptocracy will be a Klondike for carpet baggers and their henchmen wanting to rip off the poor and despoil the environment.

    There is no shortage of evidence across the world of this.

    Capitalists and investors like the predictability that the rule of law delivers. Speculators cannot deliver growth.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Dura_Ace said:

    Christ.

    'The former PM, who beat Rishi Sunak in last year's Tory leadership contest, will conclude by saying she cares "too much about this agenda to walk away", hinting that her comeback is just getting started.'


    Surely this is just an opening salvo in the fight to become LotO after the next election?
    As one exiled king across the pond withers and dies, a queen is resurrected.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pulpstar said:

    Will be interesting to find out how much Liz Truss will be paid for this speech. More or less than Theresa May?

    And if so who on earth is paying her.
    It does seem to be the American way, that companies and political orgs have ridiculous budgets for paying speakers, and a number of British former ministers take advantage every year.

    The highest earning MP last year was Theresa May, who got paid £1.5m at £80k an hour. Nope, me neither.
  • Will be interesting to find out how much Liz Truss will be paid for this speech. More or less than Theresa May?

    Good morning

    I would expect she will need to pay people to listen to her rather than the other way round !!!!
    https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/event/the-2023-margaret-thatcher-freedom-lecture

    I think that the Heritage Foundation is one of those libertarian republican pressure groups set up by the ultra rich?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    kjh said:

    While out walking the dog I was thinking about the last thread and the video taking the mickey out of people doing travel shows.

    Much of humour is dependent upon stereotyping and exaggerating those stereotypes which is what makes them funny. This is what this video did and going back in time what Constable Savage did or Spinal Tap did. One of the best example is the Big Bang Theory which has just about every stereotype in it (dumb blond, Jew, Indian, nerd, catholic, evangelical christian, etc, etc). All the humour is based around these and not offensive to normal people.

    Casino was happy with all the stereotypes except the 'middle aged white man'. Why was only that one a problem?

    Because in the real world, that's the only one that is acceptable, I think.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2023
    I know this might seem an unpopular opinion but doctors are really coming out with some shite on twitter comparing pay to rates small businesses charge.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pulpstar said:

    I know this might seem an unpopular opinion but doctors are really coming out with some shite on twitter comparing pay to rates small businesses charge.

    Someone on Twitter yesterday suggested that, perhaps there might be more support for the junior doctors, if their spokespeople didn’t sound like Arthur Scargill with a stethoscope!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    On parish councils, they are an ok and relatively harmless body I've found and often the repository of the most vicious, vituperative, treacherous personal politics around. But once you've sorted out the speeding signs and the church windows at Easter what else is there to do so naturally they go a bit Lord of the Flies.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Foxy said:

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    Capitalists do like the rule of law, except where it interferes in their actions and profiteering.

    Bit of a generalisation there. Are you turning into a radical socialist all of a sudden? I've always thought capitalism a rather unhelpful term most often used by people who don't like it. Most people just want to be wealthy. What are you prepared to do to achieve it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Fishing said:

    Mr. B, in Truss' defence, she didn't kill tens of millions of people and consign a similar number to slave labour camps.

    No, she increased interest rates by a few basis points more than they increased in France over the same time period.

    Also she had 38 days instead of 70 years to prove herself.
    She did prove herself though. 38 days were sufficient as it turned out.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Interesting and objective analysis of the local election prospects for Labour:

    https://labourlist.org/2023/04/local-election-2023-results-councils-good-labour-starmer/

    Very fair - and probably about as close to how the Labour leadership is viewing things as you'll get. For me, the key is the Midlands. Results there will tell us best how much more work Labour needs to do.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,742
    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    Mr. B, in Truss' defence, she didn't kill tens of millions of people and consign a similar number to slave labour camps.

    No, she increased interest rates by a few basis points more than they increased in France over the same time period.

    Also she had 38 days instead of 70 years to prove herself.
    She did prove herself though. 38 days were sufficient as it turned out.
    I felt personally that about 14 days were sufficient, followed by 24 days of further confirmation...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know this might seem an unpopular opinion but doctors are really coming out with some shite on twitter comparing pay to rates small businesses charge.

    Someone on Twitter yesterday suggested that, perhaps there might be more support for the junior doctors, if their spokespeople didn’t sound like Arthur Scargill with a stethoscope!
    They are merely representing their electors. There was a 78% turnout and 98% support for strike in the BMA ballot.

    Depicting the leaders as radicals unrepresentative of the real workers is fairly par for the course for government propaganda, but particularly untrue in this dispute.
  • TOPPING said:

    My entire knowledge of "the coup" stems from the Netflix documentary Four Hours at the Capitol.

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15520020/

    It showed a ragtag mob lead by Steven Shaman in his horns and other deluded no-hope types, no doubt provoked and egged on by Donald Trump, ending up, somehow, in Washington inside the Capitol building which I'm pretty sure no one really thought they would or could ever reach.

    Once in, they didn't really know what to do and hung around sitting on chairs and smoking weed.

    They were not an organised force seeking to overthrow the state by force although they posed a very real and present danger to those inside the Capitol, both police and legislators and I can perfectly understand that these people were and have been since traumatised by the experience.

    But it was not a coup. The massed forces of the state were pretty quickly brought into play against them and they were relatively quickly subdued. There was neither a shadow administration ready to take over, nor the force at its disposal for it to do so. They had the run of the Capitol but didn't appoint a president or ruling council or a Get Your Arse Over Here DJT And Run The Country Committee. I think they might like to have had DJT back running the place but they didn't actually take any steps to enable it.

    Some years ago Otis Ferry and a few mates barged into the House of Commons, shouting the odds about foxhunting. They were given conditional discharges and fined, I believe, as a result. That wasn't a coup either.

    Not only that, the cops escorted the Shaman around the Capitol:

    https://nypost.com/2023/03/06/jan-6-footage-shows-cops-bringing-qanon-shaman-to-senate-floor/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Foxy said:

    What's the impact on global markets of a Trump coup?

    In the absence of the rule of law it is only your physical ability and determination to inflict violence on others that secures your ownership of assets.

    If Trump were to take power in 2025, thanks to a GOP House and Supreme Court, despite losing the election, then the rule of law in the US would be worthless, and the market value of US assets would respond consequently. In the short term, the prodigious capital outflows from the US, looking for a safe haven where the rule of law still applied, might see values in other markets rise, but the knock-on consequences for the global economy would be brutal.
    I don't think so. Capitalists do like the rule of law, except where it interferes in their actions and profiteering.

    A Trump kleptocracy will be a Klondike for carpet baggers and their henchmen wanting to rip off the poor and despoil the environment.

    There is no shortage of evidence across the world of this.
    Most capitalists would prefer the rule of law to the rule of Trump.

    A kleptocracy requires one to have the friendship of Trump. Anyone who has crossed Trump in the past, or fails to show sufficient deference in the future, will be frozen out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know this might seem an unpopular opinion but doctors are really coming out with some shite on twitter comparing pay to rates small businesses charge.

    Someone on Twitter yesterday suggested that, perhaps there might be more support for the junior doctors, if their spokespeople didn’t sound like Arthur Scargill with a stethoscope!
    They've got plenty of support at the moment, meanwhile my brother who runs his own business (And I'm sure charges more than £20/hr as does everyone with a small business) would love their pension; career progression; lack of overheads, guaranteed hours, guaranteed work & time and a half/double overtime.
This discussion has been closed.