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The strike by doctors is a huge challenge for Sunak – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,032
edited April 2023 in General
imageThe strike by doctors is a huge challenge for Sunak – politicalbetting.com

Several of the papers this morning lead off on a strike by junior doctors – something that takes us into uncharted territory.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,977
    One can't help wondering if the government does not think it gains from winning this dispute. Is the Chancellor reliving the glory days of the new junior hospital doctors contract?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,503
    Indeed it is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    Junior doctors' real terms pay has fallen by over a quarter in the last 15 years. They get plenty of sympathy from me.
    2% payrise in the finyear just ended with 11% inflation was just insulting. 3.5% this year is another real terms pay cut.

    Barclay needs to re-open negotiations with a serious offer.

    The university strikes continue too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618
    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    "The polling agency Ipsos found that 54% of the 1,092 adults questioned said they supported the strikes, 3% more than did so when asked last month. Just over a quarter (26%) of participants said they opposed the stoppages while the other 17% had no view either way."

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/10/junior-doctors-may-keep-striking-for-another-year-says-bma-insider
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I'd rather the Tories did what was right for the country (i.e. not fuelling inflation) than what might, but probably won't, help them stay in power after the next election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    edited April 2023
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I'd rather the Tories did what was right for the country (i.e. not fuelling inflation) than what might, but probably won't, help them stay in power after the next election.
    But there is a price to pay for this. The nurses got 5% + a 6% bonus. The bonus was no doubt welcome in the short term but in the longer term that is a real term wage cut of roughly 5%. We cannot keep reducing real pay and complain about vacancies. The same goes for doctors who have easily transferrable skills. They may have been over paid in the past but they are underpaid now, especially at the junior end. To keep these careers attractive to people with the right skills we need real term wage increases, not cuts. And that is extremely difficult to do when inflation is high.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,538
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    Junior doctors' real terms pay has fallen by over a quarter in the last 15 years. They get plenty of sympathy from me.
    2% payrise in the finyear just ended with 11% inflation was just insulting. 3.5% this year is another real terms pay cut.

    Barclay needs to re-open negotiations with a serious offer.

    The university strikes continue too.
    And the teachers too. I'd wade through blood to get Labour in and stop the Tories destroying my kids' education.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,503
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I'd rather the Tories did what was right for the country (i.e. not fuelling inflation) than what might, but probably won't, help them stay in power after the next election.
    But there is a price to pay for this. The nurses got 5% + a 6% bonus. The bonus was no doubt welcome in the short term but in the longer term that is a real term wage cut of roughly 5%. We cannot keep reducing real pay and complain about vacancies. The same goes for doctors who have easily transferrable skills. They may have been over paid in the past but they are underpaid now, especially at the junior end. To keep these careers attractive to people with the right skills we need real term wage increases, not cuts. And that is extremely difficult to do when inflation is high.
    Remember also that the freeze in tax allowances means that, all other things being equal, the government is getting an above-inflation increase in its income.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    I think that you have hit the nail on the head there Sandpit! I am sorry, but as a former nurse I cannot feel the pain of a bunch of junior doctors who will go onto earn a lot of money as senior hospital staff either here in the UK or abroad. In fact, I will go onto direct my anger towards the medical profession in hospitals and towards the BMA for allowing and therefore making general practice which was once and should still have remained a vital and much honoured part of the medical profession such an unattracttive career move which has now withered in the long term across the UK as a result. I was a nurse back in the 80s/90s so I know what the old terms and conditions were for both junior doctors in the hospitals and for general practice doctors who would never have gone out on strike, so junior doctors today have far better working conditions. How the hell did we get to a position where being a GP was such a tough job today when back in the day under the old on call system they would have to go a whole week being on call 24/7 for their practice?!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,656

    Egypt secretly planned to send rockets to Russia.

    https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1645564870534782977?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    Egypt is supposedly a key U.S. ally.

    Are they? The US gives them a reasonable amount of military aid in exchange for not fucking around with Israel but that's as far as it goes.

    Pompeo strongarmed Egypt out of their Su-35 deal by threatening sanctions. Not exactly the actions of an 'ally'.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    fitalass said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    I think that you have hit the nail on the head there Sandpit! I am sorry, but as a former nurse I cannot feel the pain of a bunch of junior doctors who will go onto earn a lot of money as senior hospital staff either here in the UK or abroad. In fact, I will go onto direct my anger towards the medical profession in hospitals and towards the BMA for allowing and therefore making general practice which was once and should still have remained a vital and much honoured part of the medical profession such an unattracttive career move which has now withered in the long term across the UK as a result. I was a nurse back in the 80s/90s so I know what the old terms and conditions were for both junior doctors in the hospitals and for general practice doctors who would never have gone out on strike, so junior doctors today have far better working conditions. How the hell did we get to a position where being a GP was such a tough job today when back in the day under the old on call system they would have to go a whole week being on call 24/7 for their practice?!
    I remember when the hours junior doctors worked were insane and positively dangerous in terms of patient care. Things have rightly much improved in that respect. But its still a tough and responsible job that needs bright people to do it. And it needs to pay well enough to achieve that.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    Well the latest economic predictions suggest that inflation is going to fall quite fast over the coming year, and although slower, we should expect interest rates to follow. Already the polls are starting to see a shortening in the gap between Labour and the Conservatives, especially Rishi Sunak's personal ratings vs Keir Starmers, hence the personal attacks on him being launched by the Labour party.
  • DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    IanB2 said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    Brexit Britain: the high-wage economy where everyone (ex politicians and CEOs) earns less than they did before….?
    The biggest effects are being seen at the bottom of the labour market, where millions of people stuck on minimum wage three years ago are now earning £13 or £14 an hour. We should call it the Stuart Rose Effect, and it’s also saving the government billions in in-work benefits.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,559
    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    I think that you have hit the nail on the head there Sandpit! I am sorry, but as a former nurse I cannot feel the pain of a bunch of junior doctors who will go onto earn a lot of money as senior hospital staff either here in the UK or abroad. In fact, I will go onto direct my anger towards the medical profession in hospitals and towards the BMA for allowing and therefore making general practice which was once and should still have remained a vital and much honoured part of the medical profession such an unattracttive career move which has now withered in the long term across the UK as a result. I was a nurse back in the 80s/90s so I know what the old terms and conditions were for both junior doctors in the hospitals and for general practice doctors who would never have gone out on strike, so junior doctors today have far better working conditions. How the hell did we get to a position where being a GP was such a tough job today when back in the day under the old on call system they would have to go a whole week being on call 24/7 for their practice?!
    I remember when the hours junior doctors worked were insane and positively dangerous in terms of patient care. Things have rightly much improved in that respect. But its still a tough and responsible job that needs bright people to do it. And it needs to pay well enough to achieve that.
    My darling late wife went through that, one in twos and little or no sleep but she saw everything during that period. It can be criticised and rightly so but the benefits were considerable in terms of knowledge.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,039

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    As a teacher I agree that the nurses settlement sets a reasonable compromise balancing wage demands with the need to control inflation. Not sure why Keegan didn’t offer it to teachers tbh.

    In fact I think the teachers union have said we’d accept that. I really don’t want to strike in the run up to exams.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138
    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.
  • Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153
  • DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I'd rather the Tories did what was right for the country (i.e. not fuelling inflation) than what might, but probably won't, help them stay in power after the next election.
    But there is a price to pay for this. The nurses got 5% + a 6% bonus. The bonus was no doubt welcome in the short term but in the longer term that is a real term wage cut of roughly 5%. We cannot keep reducing real pay and complain about vacancies. The same goes for doctors who have easily transferrable skills. They may have been over paid in the past but they are underpaid now, especially at the junior end. To keep these careers attractive to people with the right skills we need real term wage increases, not cuts. And that is extremely difficult to do when inflation is high.
    Do I have to once again appeal for a return to capitalism? You can't sell your product / service if your target consumers don't have enough free cash to pay for it. We're seeing a shift from eating out to staying in - a surge in online TV subs with hospitality once again at the leading edge of belt-tightening.

    Unless people's pay allows them free cash after paying their ever-larger bills, there is no money for consumption which contracts the economy and puts more people out of work and thus not consuming either. Unfortunately we replaced capitalism first with bankism and now with spivism. Tory spivs simply steal money directly from the state rather than having to faff around running a business.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's a better poster, with legitimate point.
  • felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    But inflation is being driven by the rise in the cost of stuff, not by whopping pay rises allowing people selling stuff to increase prices and cash in...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    All right, who said that they hadn't gone for Sunak's wife's tax arrangements? We're blaming you for this one...
  • Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's pretty brutal! Hard for the one-sided PB Sunak rampers to say that isn't an accurate claim. Sunak *has* personally benifitted whilst everyone else suffers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    Junior doctors' real terms pay has fallen by over a quarter in the last 15 years. They get plenty of sympathy from me.
    2% payrise in the finyear just ended with 11% inflation was just insulting. 3.5% this year is another real terms pay cut.

    Barclay needs to re-open negotiations with a serious offer.

    The university strikes continue too.
    And the teachers too. I'd wade through blood to get Labour in and stop the Tories destroying my kids' education.
    Sadly, even if the Tories go the way of the Whigs the DfE will still be there cocking everything up with the best of intentions and a lack of knowledge that would embarrass a two year old.
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 448

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Whilst inflation went up in February, that was the first rise since October. Inflation has still fallen by 0.4% over the last 4 months and is expected to continue falling. So no, it does not keep going up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    But inflation is being driven by the rise in the cost of stuff, not by whopping pay rises allowing people selling stuff to increase prices and cash in...
    Quite obviously inflation is not being driven by sub-inflation payrises.

  • Foxy said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's a better poster, with legitimate point.
    Indeed, add in Rishi's green card then Labour are on strong ground.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497
    maxh said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    As a teacher I agree that the nurses settlement sets a reasonable compromise balancing wage demands with the need to control inflation. Not sure why Keegan didn’t offer it to teachers tbh.

    In fact I think the teachers union have said we’d accept that. I really don’t want to strike in the run up to exams.
    She thinks Nick Gibb is good, Amanda Spielman is fit to be Chief of OFSTED* and exams are much improved.

    Therefore the balance of evidence is she's an idiot. That's one possible explanation.

    But I think it much more likely the Treasury are leaning harder on education to cut costs than they are health. For a start, we have already seen that any education settlement will be unfunded.

    Again, the grey vote gets what the grey vote wants while everyone else gets hammered.

    *Amusingly autocorrect on my laptop changed that to 'Ousted.' Freudian foreshadowing?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,497

    Foxy said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's a better poster, with legitimate point.
    Indeed, add in Rishi's green card then Labour are on strong ground.
    They will Yank all his remaining credibility away.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    After giving Starmer an op-ed yesterday, today the Mail have got an interview with Maurice Saachi, king of negative political advertising. Complete with more mock(ing) ads!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11958579/MAURICE-SAATCHI-says-Tories-hit-against-Sir-Keir-Starmer-like-did-Maggie.html


  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,039

    felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    But inflation is being driven by the rise in the cost of stuff, not by whopping pay rises allowing people selling stuff to increase prices and cash in...

    felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    But inflation is being driven by the rise in the cost of stuff, not by whopping pay rises allowing people selling stuff to increase prices and cash in...
    Exactly this. And even if inflation does drop quickly, the wage rises will still only make wages ‘catch up’ with price increases already baked in.

    The alternative (resisting below inflation pay settlements) is basically arguing for inflation to be controlled by preventing people from buying what they need at all let alone for inflated prices.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Foxy said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's a better poster, with legitimate point.
    Indeed, add in Rishi's green card then Labour are on strong ground.
    Not so sure about that.

    Suggesting that Sunak is not committed to living in the UK has a dubious whiff to it.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    maxh said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    As a teacher I agree that the nurses settlement sets a reasonable compromise balancing wage demands with the need to control inflation. Not sure why Keegan didn’t offer it to teachers tbh.

    In fact I think the teachers union have said we’d accept that. I really don’t want to strike in the run up to exams.
    Its quite likely that the nurses will reject the offer
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's a better poster, with legitimate point.
    Indeed, add in Rishi's green card then Labour are on strong ground.
    Not so sure about that.

    Suggesting that Sunak is not committed to living in the UK has a dubious whiff to it.
    It's fine, for maximum LOLs Labour should headline that attack with 'Citizens of nowhere'.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited April 2023
    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    I think that you have hit the nail on the head there Sandpit! I am sorry, but as a former nurse I cannot feel the pain of a bunch of junior doctors who will go onto earn a lot of money as senior hospital staff either here in the UK or abroad. In fact, I will go onto direct my anger towards the medical profession in hospitals and towards the BMA for allowing and therefore making general practice which was once and should still have remained a vital and much honoured part of the medical profession such an unattracttive career move which has now withered in the long term across the UK as a result. I was a nurse back in the 80s/90s so I know what the old terms and conditions were for both junior doctors in the hospitals and for general practice doctors who would never have gone out on strike, so junior doctors today have far better working conditions. How the hell did we get to a position where being a GP was such a tough job today when back in the day under the old on call system they would have to go a whole week being on call 24/7 for their practice?!
    I remember when the hours junior doctors worked were insane and positively dangerous in terms of patient care. Things have rightly much improved in that respect. But its still a tough and responsible job that needs bright people to do it. And it needs to pay well enough to achieve that.
    So answer me this, why does General Practice which has always paid well, but now no longer attracts enough doctors to not only cover staff levels required in medical practices but now sees medical practices closing down? Its become a career choice for part time doctors. I should add that when my lads were young and I was at home and my hubby's best friend a GP heavily involved me in their local training programme and regularly roped me into be a patient on their training courses. Do you think that nurses had it any easier? We didn't, and I have lost count of the times over the years back in the 80s/90s when I finished a normal shift but due to sickness/staff shortages I would have to do an extra few hours elsewhere. But back then I was proud of the fact that I was part of the RCN who would never go out on strike. Some jobs you do for the greater good, and no matter how tough it gets, you never ever go out on strike to make a point about pay. I was really saddened when the RCN voted to allow strikes.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,656
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's a better poster, with legitimate point.
    Indeed, add in Rishi's green card then Labour are on strong ground.
    Not so sure about that.

    Suggesting that Sunak is not committed to living in the UK has a dubious whiff to it.
    Do you think he'll be hanging around to enjoy the dizzying, sophisticated delights of Northallerton once he gets his arsehole hoofed by the voters?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,483
    felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    So you disagree with the 10% increase in the State Pension, surely not?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,293
    Dura_Ace said:

    Egypt secretly planned to send rockets to Russia.

    https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1645564870534782977?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    Egypt is supposedly a key U.S. ally.

    Are they? The US gives them a reasonable amount of military aid in exchange for not fucking around with Israel but that's as far as it goes.

    Pompeo strongarmed Egypt out of their Su-35 deal by threatening sanctions. Not exactly the actions of an 'ally'.
    With hindsight, not going with the Su-35 probably did Egypt a favour...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475
    Drove past the Royal this am Intending to beep my horn in solidarity with junior doctors, nothing! What the hell is going on, is industrial action now banned in one party police state Scotland?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,559
    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,574
    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    Food inflation is a bigger factor for those on lower pay. It makes the doctors' claim for more than nurses even more grasping.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's a better poster, with legitimate point.
    Indeed, add in Rishi's green card then Labour are on strong ground.
    Not so sure about that.

    Suggesting that Sunak is not committed to living in the UK has a dubious whiff to it.
    He was Chancellor of Her Majesty's Exchequer and a United States Green Card holder at the same time. As that allowed him permanent residency in the USA it was by definition total proof that he was not committed to living in the UK.

    Reportedly he no longer has the Green Card. But retains the home, and the business links, and the interest, in the USA.

    Seems like a fair thing to throw at him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    .

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    Junior doctors' real terms pay has fallen by over a quarter in the last 15 years. They get plenty of sympathy from me.
    Someone who was a junior doctor 15 years ago, now earns how much on average? I’ll take a guess at £65k.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,055

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    I think that you have hit the nail on the head there Sandpit! I am sorry, but as a former nurse I cannot feel the pain of a bunch of junior doctors who will go onto earn a lot of money as senior hospital staff either here in the UK or abroad. In fact, I will go onto direct my anger towards the medical profession in hospitals and towards the BMA for allowing and therefore making general practice which was once and should still have remained a vital and much honoured part of the medical profession such an unattracttive career move which has now withered in the long term across the UK as a result. I was a nurse back in the 80s/90s so I know what the old terms and conditions were for both junior doctors in the hospitals and for general practice doctors who would never have gone out on strike, so junior doctors today have far better working conditions. How the hell did we get to a position where being a GP was such a tough job today when back in the day under the old on call system they would have to go a whole week being on call 24/7 for their practice?!
    I remember when the hours junior doctors worked were insane and positively dangerous in terms of patient care. Things have rightly much improved in that respect. But its still a tough and responsible job that needs bright people to do it. And it needs to pay well enough to achieve that.
    My darling late wife went through that, one in twos and little or no sleep but she saw everything during that period. It can be criticised and rightly so but the benefits were considerable in terms of knowledge.
    Really? I'd love to see some studies showing that people on little or no sleep can learn more effectively than those getting sleep. Given that sleep is a key part of how the brain stores information, I would be amazed.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,405
    Sandpit said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    After giving Starmer an op-ed yesterday, today the Mail have got an interview with Maurice Saachi, king of negative political advertising. Complete with more mock(ing) ads!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11958579/MAURICE-SAATCHI-says-Tories-hit-against-Sir-Keir-Starmer-like-did-Maggie.html


    I'm sure the Mail disagree, but that highlights the government's problem. That's a combination of fairly ancient history, squibs that haven't caught fire before and stuff that only gets traction on right wing talk news TV.

    There are better attack lines out there.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,483
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,574
    Labour's attack is going to get seriously blunted - or worse - by all these format spoofs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
  • DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Whilst inflation went up in February, that was the first rise since October. Inflation has still fallen by 0.4% over the last 4 months and is expected to continue falling. So no, it does not keep going up.
    So a -0.4% average over the last 4 months with the last one a rise. When you keep getting months with a rise that is not inflation falling. When food price inflation is heading towards double the headline rate - and still rising btw - it is pitiful to keep claiming that inflation is falling.

    There is always a difference between paper economics and practical. Food price inflation being an obvious example where even if the paper rate is down a touch, when most of the things consumers buy are still shooting up, its politically stupid to try and insist the opposite is true.
  • Drove past the Royal this am Intending to beep my horn in solidarity with junior doctors, nothing! What the hell is going on, is industrial action now banned in one party police state Scotland?

    Question. If we have a one party police state in Scotland, why did the police state just dawn raid the one party, arrest its ex boss and confiscate huge amounts of papers and computers from its HQ?

    In a police state, the state have the police dawn raid everyone else, not the party in charge...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,574

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
    You think a 30% pay claim when inflation is reducing from 10% to 5% isn't disastrous optics? Especially when compared to what the nurses have got?

    Nothing to do with cumulative rates.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,405

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    You want that?

    Sure, it's possible, but it will cost you.

    And the government's plan here is dismally transparent. Announce a tax cut next Spring. They won't be able to do that if they have spent the money on public sector pay.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,055

    Sandpit said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    After giving Starmer an op-ed yesterday, today the Mail have got an interview with Maurice Saachi, king of negative political advertising. Complete with more mock(ing) ads!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11958579/MAURICE-SAATCHI-says-Tories-hit-against-Sir-Keir-Starmer-like-did-Maggie.html


    I'm sure the Mail disagree, but that highlights the government's problem. That's a combination of fairly ancient history, squibs that haven't caught fire before and stuff that only gets traction on right wing talk news TV.

    There are better attack lines out there.
    And on areas like crime and tax Labour would definitely accept a score draw or even narrow loss as they are protecting a lead now. I expect a fair part of the rationale of the attack is to get voters thinking they are all as bad as each other in Labours traditional weak areas.
  • Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
    You think a 30% pay claim when inflation is reducing from 10% to 5% isn't disastrous optics? Especially when compared to what the nurses have got?

    Nothing to do with cumulative rates.
    On what planet is inflation currently reducing to 5%?

    You keep saying it is.

    It keeps not being true.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,055

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
    You think a 30% pay claim when inflation is reducing from 10% to 5% isn't disastrous optics? Especially when compared to what the nurses have got?

    Nothing to do with cumulative rates.
    On what planet is inflation currently reducing to 5%?

    You keep saying it is.

    It keeps not being true.
    It will eventually, and then, boy, will you be told!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,559
    Foxy said:

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
    How many.people have to die because of Doctors striking over pay, because it will happen...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,538

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
    You think a 30% pay claim when inflation is reducing from 10% to 5% isn't disastrous optics? Especially when compared to what the nurses have got?

    Nothing to do with cumulative rates.
    It's alright, nobody will notice how much everything costs compared to three years ago.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,483

    Labour's attack is going to get seriously blunted - or worse - by all these format spoofs.

    I am beginning to think there might have been cynical method in the absurdity of last week's grossly unfair "nonces" poster. The furore was designed for readers to look at future posters, and if so the Daily Mail fell for it hook, line and sinker. Today's poster being rather effective.

    As to the spoofing of the posters blunting the effect, don't all campaigns have a shelf life?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138

    felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    But inflation is being driven by the rise in the cost of stuff, not by whopping pay rises allowing people selling stuff to increase prices and cash in...
    Of course. The main cause is we now have the bill for the long layoff for COVID and Ukraine. The idea that these can have no consequence is a feature of a world we live in which thinks governments can do everything for free, forever. There is no automatic right to continued improvements. FWIW I consider the full 10% uprate for pensions is an error.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138

    felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    So you disagree with the 10% increase in the State Pension, surely not?
    I do. I'd probably have had it at say 8% and may e even then only for those solely on the state pension.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,317

    Foxy said:

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
    How many.people have to die because of Doctors striking over pay, because it will happen...
    The Government could pay them what they’re asking for…

    By the way junior dentists are also on strike. I didn’t realise this.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,055

    Foxy said:

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
    How many.people have to die because of Doctors striking over pay, because it will happen...
    The Government could pay them what they’re asking for…

    By the way junior dentists are also on strike. I didn’t realise this.
    So will the government just bare their teeth or is it now time to get to the root of the matter?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,459

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    That's pretty brutal! Hard for the one-sided PB Sunak rampers to say that isn't an accurate claim. Sunak *has* personally benifitted whilst everyone else suffers.
    This is where you and the left get it wrong. You think that "everyone else" suffers. Whereas in reality plenty of people suffer and plenty don't. And Lab needs all of the former lot and many of the latter. They are fighting a class/economic war against people whose votes they need.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475

    Foxy said:

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
    How many.people have to die because of Doctors striking over pay, because it will happen...
    How many people have died due to not being able to pay inflated heating and food prices?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    I'm not sure that people who actually depend on the NHS won't blame the government.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,483
    felix said:

    felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    But inflation is being driven by the rise in the cost of stuff, not by whopping pay rises allowing people selling stuff to increase prices and cash in...
    Of course. The main cause is we now have the bill for the long layoff for COVID and Ukraine. The idea that these can have no consequence is a feature of a world we live in which thinks governments can do everything for free, forever. There is no automatic right to continued improvements. FWIW I consider the full 10% uprate for pensions is an error.
    Even if we don't increase taxes to offset the effects of the black swans you cite perhaps we can look at how effectively Government spends out taxes. Let's see, a payrise for Junior Doctors OR PPE contracts to Michelle Mone, an abused system of COVID grants to organised crime businesses and paying Lord Pannick to defend Boris Johnson at an industrial tribunal (perhaps he should have joined a union).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,459
    On topic. I think that the "junior doctors" will before too long run out of sympathy. There is only so long that the public sees what appear to be very well educated, charming young people, perhaps with knitted scarves and mascots on the picket line and withdrawing treatment from the poorest in society, before they think "hold on".
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,559
    Foxy did you do I in 2s or had they been abolished when you were training?
  • maxh said:

    ydoethur said:

    maxh said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    As a teacher I agree that the nurses settlement sets a reasonable compromise balancing wage demands with the need to control inflation. Not sure why Keegan didn’t offer it to teachers tbh.

    In fact I think the teachers union have said we’d accept that. I really don’t want to strike in the run up to exams.
    She thinks Nick Gibb is good, Amanda Spielman is fit to be Chief of OFSTED* and exams are much improved.

    Therefore the balance of evidence is she's an idiot. That's one possible explanation.

    But I think it much more likely the Treasury are leaning harder on education to cut costs than they are health. For a start, we have already seen that any education settlement will be unfunded.

    Again, the grey vote gets what the grey vote wants while everyone else gets hammered.

    *Amusingly autocorrect on my laptop changed that to 'Ousted.' Freudian foreshadowing?
    Yeah, anecdotally a lot of teachers I know voted to reject the pay offer not because it was paltry but because it was unfunded. That Keegan talked about reducing workload in the same breath was laughable.
    The DfE were committed to setting up a Taskforce...

    I do wonder what planet these politicians are on, this kind of rubbish just will not wash. People aren't idiots.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Foxy said:

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
    How many.people have to die because of Doctors striking over pay, because it will happen...
    How many people have to die* because the government cannot fill vacancies? Because it will happen...

    *Currently running at 500 per week on non strike days.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,574
    TOPPING said:

    On topic. I think that the "junior doctors" will before too long run out of sympathy. There is only so long that the public sees what appear to be very well educated, charming young people, perhaps with knitted scarves and mascots on the picket line and withdrawing treatment from the poorest in society, before they think "hold on".

    Are you suggesting University Challenge is coming out in sympathy?
  • eekeek Posts: 27,352

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
    You think a 30% pay claim when inflation is reducing from 10% to 5% isn't disastrous optics? Especially when compared to what the nurses have got?

    Nothing to do with cumulative rates.
    On what planet is inflation currently reducing to 5%?

    You keep saying it is.

    It keeps not being true.
    The 30% pay increase demand comes from the fact that since 2010 (i.e. during the past 13 years) Public sector pay has fallen in real terns (i.e. purchasing power) by 15-35%.

    I take one look at what my wife earns now and it's actually worse than when she first left the Yorkshire Dales in 2003 - so if you don't like the first comparison there's a second example.

    This Government has 4 unfixable issues that it can be easily attacked on (except that any Government using them won't be able to fix them).

    1) Why are taxes higher now than ever before
    2) Why are public services so bad
    3) Why can we no longer do infrastructure projects (see for example HS2)
    4) Why is public sector pay so low and how is it going to be resolved in areas where
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Foxy did you do I in 2s or had they been abolished when you were training?

    Yes, my first job was a 1 in 2. Most of the rest were 1 in 3 or 4 with internal cover.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,574

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
    You think a 30% pay claim when inflation is reducing from 10% to 5% isn't disastrous optics? Especially when compared to what the nurses have got?

    Nothing to do with cumulative rates.
    On what planet is inflation currently reducing to 5%?

    You keep saying it is.

    It keeps not being true.
    What do you think the current underlying rate of inflation is?

    Have a guess....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,055
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
    How many.people have to die because of Doctors striking over pay, because it will happen...
    How many people have to die* because the government cannot fill vacancies? Because it will happen...

    *Currently running at 500 per week on non strike days.
    What can save the country money here is investing in training significantly more doctors (on deals where some of the free tuition is dependent on x years worked in the NHS). Ideally, at least for a portion of them, shorten the courses and get them more specialised too.

    We don't really save any money by keeping pay down a percent or two whilst over 7 million are waiting for operations, a significant proportion of which will be off work and not paying their usual taxes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    felix said:

    The only way to stop inflation is to control spending - big pay rises are not going to cut it! Many of us are old enough to have been here before. Applies to all governments.

    So how large of a real terms pay cut do you think should be imposed ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,452

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
    You think a 30% pay claim when inflation is reducing from 10% to 5% isn't disastrous optics? Especially when compared to what the nurses have got?

    Nothing to do with cumulative rates.
    On what planet is inflation currently reducing to 5%?

    You keep saying it is.

    It keeps not being true.
    What do you think the current underlying rate of inflation is?

    Have a guess....
    You're talking about an instantaneous rate. What hits people in the pocket is the integral of that rate, especially over the last year.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475
    TOPPING said:

    On topic. I think that the "junior doctors" will before too long run out of sympathy. There is only so long that the public sees what appear to be very well educated, charming young people, perhaps with knitted scarves and mascots on the picket line and withdrawing treatment from the poorest in society, before they think "hold on".

    Class war!
    Is it only horny handed sons (& daughters) of toil who can depend on public support for industrial action?
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173

    Foxy said:

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
    How many.people have to die because of Doctors striking over pay, because it will happen...
    Given we're told the Tory vote skews to the over 60 age range, the Government would do well to settle the dispute before the lack of NHS care kills too many of their own voters.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,483
    TOPPING said:

    On topic. I think that the "junior doctors" will before too long run out of sympathy. There is only so long that the public sees what appear to be very well educated, charming young people, perhaps with knitted scarves and mascots on the picket line and withdrawing treatment from the poorest in society, before they think "hold on".

    A claimed pay rate of £14 an hour is compelling evidence for the public to be on board with the Junior Doctors.

    £99 (less VAT) an hour (in his bank account) for a tradesman (after a 12 week training course) to fix your boiler but just £14 an hour for a 7 year trained and 10 year time-served doctor to save your child's life.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,749
    edited April 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not sure that doctors enjoy the same level of public support for their action, as do lower-paid public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. Presumably we should see some polling this week?

    I'm not sure that people who actually depend on the NHS won't blame the government.
    I have a hospital routine appointments for a blood test and a routine haematology checkup this morning, so I'll sound a couple of people out.

    My view is that the Junior Doctors are punching themselves in the head by refusing to start negotiations when their pay claim is patently rhetorical, incorporating for example an RPI inflation rate, choosing to hurt patients along the way, and could run out of sympathy in fairly short order.

    I'm listening to claims on the radio now about a "hemorrhage of staff abroad", where NHS staff continue to increase. "But but but all the Doctors will go to Australia", which was exactly the same threat I recall from last time a couple of years ago. Did they all go to Australia?

    I wonder if the real damage being done here is to the reputation / credibility of the BMA.

    Starmer will love it as he will claim that the NHS Recovery Plan is going backwards.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,538

    TOPPING said:

    On topic. I think that the "junior doctors" will before too long run out of sympathy. There is only so long that the public sees what appear to be very well educated, charming young people, perhaps with knitted scarves and mascots on the picket line and withdrawing treatment from the poorest in society, before they think "hold on".

    Class war!
    Is it only horny handed sons (& daughters) of toil who can depend on public support for industrial action?
    Politics of envy, Tory edition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411

    Sandpit said:

    Wow.

    A Labour government would freeze council tax this year, paid for by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

    And we’d scrap the Tories’ non-dom tax loophole.




    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1645671918693937153

    After giving Starmer an op-ed yesterday, today the Mail have got an interview with Maurice Saachi, king of negative political advertising. Complete with more mock(ing) ads!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11958579/MAURICE-SAATCHI-says-Tories-hit-against-Sir-Keir-Starmer-like-did-Maggie.html


    I'm sure the Mail disagree, but that highlights the government's problem. That's a combination of fairly ancient history, squibs that haven't caught fire before and stuff that only gets traction on right wing talk news TV.

    There are better attack lines out there.
    And no one but Mail readers will see it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,459
    edited April 2023

    TOPPING said:

    On topic. I think that the "junior doctors" will before too long run out of sympathy. There is only so long that the public sees what appear to be very well educated, charming young people, perhaps with knitted scarves and mascots on the picket line and withdrawing treatment from the poorest in society, before they think "hold on".

    Class war!
    Is it only horny handed sons (& daughters) of toil who can depend on public support for industrial action?
    Everything is relative. "Junior doctors" are predominantly in the 5% if not the 1% but by all means man the barricades on their behalf.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    Labour's attack is going to get seriously blunted - or worse - by all these format spoofs.

    I am beginning to think there might have been cynical method in the absurdity of last week's grossly unfair "nonces" poster. The furore was designed for readers to look at future posters, and if so the Daily Mail fell for it hook, line and sinker. Today's poster being rather effective.

    As to the spoofing of the posters blunting the effect, don't all campaigns have a shelf life?
    I think that must be it, because how much attention do regular attacks and promises attract? Very little.

    A lot more people will have seen these which combine attacks and promises.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,405

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    The arguments would have swung in the government's favour if inflation had fallen below 10%. But it didn't, it went up. Food inflation is now over 15%. The government needs that to change, fast. And I am not sure that it is going to, at least not at the rate that the government needs.
    I keep reading that inflation is falling. I know that Sunak made it a pledge. But it keeps going up. Not going down.

    Is stating "tumbling inflation" some kind of groupthink?
    Unless there is deflation, prices still go up, just more slowly.

    Don't forget in loyal PB Tory land inflation is not cumulative.
    You think a 30% pay claim when inflation is reducing from 10% to 5% isn't disastrous optics? Especially when compared to what the nurses have got?

    Nothing to do with cumulative rates.
    On what planet is inflation currently reducing to 5%?

    You keep saying it is.

    It keeps not being true.
    What do you think the current underlying rate of inflation is?

    Have a guess....
    It's an economic abstraction, that's what it is.

    If you are a central banker, looking at moves in underlying inflation is a good way of picking apart what's going on in the economy.

    If you are a citizen, what matters is the price of stuff you use. If you are a struggling citizen, that means food, utilities and shelter. I really wouldn't advise telling those people that underlying inflation is quite low right now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    maxh said:

    ydoethur said:

    maxh said:

    Sunak needs several months of tumbling inflation. The lower it goes, the more outlandish the junior doctors' pay claim will look.

    They should settle now for the same deal the nurses have been offered (with the cash bonus reflecting higher salaries, but with basic % increases the same).

    Sunak should address the nation, saying we can afford no more for doctors than we can for nurses. Any disruption to the NHS, any deaths will be on the negotiators for the junior doctors. They have been told the offer will not be improved. And it will not.

    Leveraging the nations's health for NHS pay deals is not something his government will tolerate.

    As a teacher I agree that the nurses settlement sets a reasonable compromise balancing wage demands with the need to control inflation. Not sure why Keegan didn’t offer it to teachers tbh.

    In fact I think the teachers union have said we’d accept that. I really don’t want to strike in the run up to exams.
    She thinks Nick Gibb is good, Amanda Spielman is fit to be Chief of OFSTED* and exams are much improved.

    Therefore the balance of evidence is she's an idiot. That's one possible explanation.

    But I think it much more likely the Treasury are leaning harder on education to cut costs than they are health. For a start, we have already seen that any education settlement will be unfunded.

    Again, the grey vote gets what the grey vote wants while everyone else gets hammered.

    *Amusingly autocorrect on my laptop changed that to 'Ousted.' Freudian foreshadowing?
    Yeah, anecdotally a lot of teachers I know voted to reject the pay offer not because it was paltry but because it was unfunded. That Keegan talked about reducing workload in the same breath was laughable.
    Unless she is planning to abolish Ofsted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411

    Labour's attack is going to get seriously blunted - or worse - by all these format spoofs.

    Or reinforced.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,459

    TOPPING said:

    On topic. I think that the "junior doctors" will before too long run out of sympathy. There is only so long that the public sees what appear to be very well educated, charming young people, perhaps with knitted scarves and mascots on the picket line and withdrawing treatment from the poorest in society, before they think "hold on".

    A claimed pay rate of £14 an hour is compelling evidence for the public to be on board with the Junior Doctors.

    £99 (less VAT) an hour (in his bank account) for a tradesman (after a 12 week training course) to fix your boiler but just £14 an hour for a 7 year trained and 10 year time-served doctor to save your child's life.
    They know it is an apprenticeship and there are riches to come. @Foxy was once a junior doctor and now look at him (her?).
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    TOPPING said:

    On topic. I think that the "junior doctors" will before too long run out of sympathy. There is only so long that the public sees what appear to be very well educated, charming young people, perhaps with knitted scarves and mascots on the picket line and withdrawing treatment from the poorest in society, before they think "hold on".

    A claimed pay rate of £14 an hour is compelling evidence for the public to be on board with the Junior Doctors.

    £99 (less VAT) an hour (in his bank account) for a tradesman (after a 12 week training course) to fix your boiler but just £14 an hour for a 7 year trained and 10 year time-served doctor to save your child's life.
    You seriously think it is a 12 week training course.? To fix a boiler you must be gas safe registered. You must do a 4 year apprenticeship and then do gas safe assessments in each individual element of gas work which then must be done again every 3-5 years (which cost thousands.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,411
    Foxy said:

    The Doctors and nurses and all emergency workers need permanent no strike agreements

    In that case we need independent pay boards that the government is obligated to adhere to.

    That is one element that is being negotiated by the Consultants. If not making progress by May 15th, we will be balloting to strike too.

    https://twitter.com/BMA_Consultants/status/1642856787341721600?t=oOpQkXhnOZQieLDJFKRMIw&s=19
    Yes, the current arrangement is independent boards which government ignores when it doesn't like the recommendation.
This discussion has been closed.