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The polls are definitely tightening – politicalbetting.com
The polls are definitely tightening – politicalbetting.com
I always like looking at voting polls in a group and the above table from Wikipedia shows what’s happened over the last few weeks or so.
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Labour are going to need to articulate a coherent vision, even if a lot of the finer details have to wait until the manifesto, to give voters something positive to support. Not being the Tories won't be enough.
No One Should Be That Shocked by What’s Happening in Tennessee
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/04/08/tennessee-descent-statehouse-mag-00091090
The world of politics experienced a collective shock this week as Tennessee Republicans expelled two young, Black, Democratic House members for protesting gun laws on the chamber floor after a deadly school shooting in Nashville.
But for those who have closely watched the chamber in recent years, the events were of little surprise. The place has been defined by partisan vitriol, pique, scandal, racism and Olympic-level pettiness for years.
The protest and subsequent expulsion over decorum rules took place in a chamber where a GOP member, for years, rang a cowbell every day of session as a raucous, attention-grabbing substitute for applause.
When I covered the Tennessee Capitol from 2018 to 2021, the family-values espousing Republican House speaker had to explain why his text message trail included discussions of pole-dancing women and his chief of staff’s sexual encounters in the bathroom of a hot chicken restaurant.
After a Republican lawmaker was accused of sexually assaulting 15- and 16-year-old girls he had taught and coached, he was made chairman of the House education committee…
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/08/republican-party-abortion-trap-00091088
… Now, a four-point question probably best measures where Americans sit on the issue: legal in all cases, legal in most, illegal in all and illegal in most. The 2022 national exit poll used this device, finding that 29 percent of voters believed abortion should be “legal in all cases,” while another 30 percent thought it should be “legal in most cases.” That left 26 percent who thought it should be “illegal in most cases” and only 10 percent who said it should be “illegal in all cases.”
That leaves roughly six-in-10 voters supporting legal abortion in most cases — with the median voter supporting some restrictions — and just over a third who want it to be entirely or mostly illegal...
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/07/british-firm-ships-12bln-of-electronics-to-russia-despite-sanctions-ft-a80753
These owners need to be thrown in prison.
LAB still big favourites and can still get an overall majority but it is likely to be small at best and they need to come out with some real ideas.
People are not at all happy with the current government but there is still no real enthusiasm for Starmer or LAB.
CON with a real chance of ending up with 250+ maybe more, something which looked quite unlikely a few months ago.
Meanwhile people have a moral panic about "woke". Any decent American needs to vote Democrat.
If they spend all this extra money and they don't increase the theft conviction rate, this should be thrown in their face.
However, I'm struggling even more to see the Tories' big ideas, or their 'vision'. What is modern Toryism about, other than 'small boats' type populism? Why should I vote for them? What's Sunak's 'big idea'? I really don't have a clue. I reckon if there's a vacuum in Labour's policy offer, there's at least as large a one in the Tories'.
(OK, I am mostly joking. Mostly.
But I would not automatically reject the argument that there was some rough justice in those gifts.)
Though not impossible, of course.
Brian Stimpson, Clockwise
The left is furious it lost control of the Supreme Court*, and it wants it back by whatever means possible. The latest effort is a smear on Justice Thomas.
*Note the last time there was a majority of justices on the court nominated by Democratic presidents was around 1969.
Labour alone needs a vision of change, because if it offers continuity under different management then the Tories' existing supporters will see no reason to vote for pretend Tories over real ones, and many of the losers under the existing model won't bother to turn out through resignation and despair.
However Sunak is a change for the better and as this weekend Labour lost the high moral ground I expect he will mitigate the result
But the state of the political battle lines in the US is far from nuanced.
In her resignation letter from the National Executive Committee (NEC) in May 2021 — leaked to The Sunday Times — Cherry said that it was “impossible” to fulfil her promise to members to “deliver better scrutiny and transparency”.
Her resignation, addressed to the party’s business convenor, Kirsten Oswald MP, came just days after the departure of Douglas Chapman, also an MP, as party treasurer saying that he “had not received the support or financial information (from the party hierarchy) required to carry out the fiduciary duties”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/joanna-cherry-quit-snp-ruling-council-over-menacing-attitude-gvjk8krhh
Illegal in most - “Stop with the hypotheticals. I don’t like abortion. And we don’t really need it in most cases”
Legal in most - “That hypothetical I’ll give you. But I feel that abortion should a last resort. So apart from…..”
If you are helping run a sports club and someone says that the committee can’t see the books, then an alarm klaxon should go off in your head. That’s simply not how it works.
The people who resigned from the SNP did the right thing in doing that. Otherwise you can end up signing off accounts and taking legal responsibility for a situation where you don’t have all the facts.
Von der Leyen: "I encouraged President Xi to reach out to President Zelensky. It was interesting to hear that President Xi reiterated his willingess to speak (to him) when the time and conditions are right"
https://twitter.com/emilyrauhala/status/1643959765800738817
Interesting??? When the time is right??? It's time we called China out on its peace plan. How can they be taken seriously when they only talk to one side. Enough of the warm words. Even in public. I hope they were a bit more direct in private.
I cannot see any Chinese plan that would be favourable to Ukraine or its partners. The only thing that works is threatening them with sanctions if they support Russia militarily. We might think we're defending Ukraine's right to be a free country determining its own path but in Beijing as well as Moscow Ukraine is just a western proxy. No doubt if he does deign to pick up the phone to Zelensky, they'll be lots of applause from various quarters about how magnanimous of Xi to take the time to speak with a fellow President thousands of miles away. Enough! Stop playing these thugs' game.
FWIW, I think that suits 'Sunak-ism' quite well. He's not one for the Thatcherite bold moves but - to many - he's decent enough and seems competent. That's enough for many.
Labour's problem - and SKS' in particular - is that he has never formulated where Labour will genuinely help people whose main obstacle is trying to deal with a society where the rules seem rigged in favour of big interests and people are resigned to their lives.
I think what most Americans realise - which we don't - is that this is not a Black v White
Good v Evil situation but one where both sides have their faults.
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/07/schumer-mcconnell-gershkovich-wsj-russia/
(Yes, I know that these two canny leaders recognize that doing the right thing can sometimes be good politics, as it is in this example. But it is still good news, whatever the mix of motives.)
https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1644669039095037953
We played the game with thugs throughout the Cold War. While China isn't supplying Russia directly with arms we should continue with the diplomatic charade.
It leaves open options which shouldn't be closed off without good reason.
If Xi is having a dialogue with Zelensky, it would make him look like a prat to be selling arms to Russia at full scale at the same time. He would have to turn it down a bit - no heavy missiles while talking or something.
So pointless talks with Ukraine would actually help Ukraine. A bit.
- guardian
The price of a commodity (say oil) is set by demand for it. If it was priced in Euros or Yen, then it would make exactly no difference.
The raising of US interest rates will have had the opposite effect; it will have depressed US demand for oil, therefore reducing the price.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/08/yvette-cooper-was-not-told-about-labours-sunak-attack-ad-in-advance
Justice Thomas is allowed to have whatever friends he chooses. He is also allowed to enjoy their hospitality.
But at a certain point, it's not hospitality to a friend.
So, going on vacation with billionaire pals, including private jets and yachts: fine, but probably should have been declared.
Having access to billionaire pal's private jet and using it for one's own personal purposes, without sad pal; well, that looks awfully like a very valuable gift to me.
And if said pal is a political activist, who gives dearly to causes close to their heart (and which causes might happen to come in front of the Supreme Court), then at the very least a judge (any judge) should avoid any merest hint of impropriety.
But he does seem competent and quite likeable. And not quite as boring as Starmer
That grotesque ad will not have helped Labour
If the Fed has loose monetary policy, that stimulates demand, and causes inflation.
And if they have tight monetary policy, that causes the price of commodities to rise, and causes inflation.
Do I have your view correct?
Are Reform UK voters the Tory hope?
What was happening last year was a double whammy - the cost of the underlying commodities was going up and the cost of buying that inflated commodity in dollars increased because the dollar was strengthening.
Technically, the oil price would have reduced inflation but core inflation rates often exclude energy / oil prices because they can be volatile.
https://twitter.com/chipping_mr/status/1644481632261242881/photo/1
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/08/yvette-cooper-was-not-told-about-labours-sunak-attack-ad-in-advance
Its subsequent swerve into tightening has not cancelled out the previous inflationary pressures (things like prices of building materials), because the decline those sorts of demand takes a long time to filter through, whilst it probably throws some additional inflationary pressures the way of non-dollar economies in the way Kitchen Cabinet describes.
The point of responsible stewardship of the world economy is that you don't conduct monetary policy like a pissed up drunk driver lurching this way and that.
BTW I sent you something via a pb third party re trains. Did you receive it?
Thomas is taking the piss.
Pollster Mar Apr Delta
Deltapoll 15 21 +6
Omnisis 23 20 -3
R&W 19 17 -2
Savanta 16 16 +0
Techne 16 15 -1
That's three falls, one stable and one rise, with the total rise equalling the fall
The second part, is utter nonsense.
The Fed raising rates will have lowered the price of commodities, because it's primary effect will have been to reduce US domestic demand.
The currency a commodity is denominated in has no effect on its currency adjusted price, and it's trivially easy to prove this. @TheKitchenCabinet is simply wrong: the Fed raising interest rates will not have contributed to inflation in other countries by raising the price of commodities.
https://www.bis.org/publ/work1083.pdf
Their conclusion is pretty clear. Historically, rising commodity prices usually meant a falling dollar - and vice versa crucially - which gave many countries a natural hedge. That process has now been eliminated.
So back to the original point. The Fed's rise in interest rates has caused a double issue for many countries.
and latest prediction without tactical voting
and with tactical voting
When countries depreciate their currencies, it makes their exports cheaper but increases the costs of imports and drives inflation through rising prices and services. It's the exchange rate pass through effect.
What you seem to be saying is that doesn't happen because the underlying cost of the commodity doesn't change even if the local currency has depreciated.
Correct?
It therefore costs more £ to buy an $80 barrel of oil, all other things a being equal
Basically US monetary policy can have exogenous effects on third countries
Saudi refusal to increase supplies was likely most significant.
The enormity of the challenge facing Labour in securing even a majority of one seat is well documented - and Keir Starmer is most certainly no Blair, Attlee or Wilson. The most likely outcome of the next election is a Hung Parliament; the second most likely is that Labour gives people nothing meaningful to vote for whatsoever, and the Tories win again by default.
Yes, it requires something special. But the Tories increasing their share and winning huge after winning the previous 3 elections was also special.
What happened with inflation in 2022 was several factors at once.
First, the supply chain issues post-Covid. Although largely unwound by now, it caused issues then. Raising interest rates would do nothing to fix that.
Secondly, the spike in commodity prices post-Russia invading Ukraine, directly (where Russia was a commodity producer) and indirectly (Russia and Ukraine provided 10% of global sea crews). Raising interest rates does nothing there.
Thirdly, rising asset values. There interest rates do have an effect. But - and it's something that has been explained before - a more effective way to curb asset values was via taxation (and therefore raise income).
What the US Government (and Fed by implication) did was chicken out on raising taxes on rising prices because of the political consequences and went for the blunt tool of interest rates
The United States is to blame for all the world's problems. Work back from that conclusion to find the economic logic.
As a non-economist I find it odd that the Fed raising rates and reducing demand for oil and the price of oil in dollars would create inflation elsewhere presumably through a strengthening dollar? Don't see it since we're all in the business of raising rates anyway.
He can't afford to bribe the old even more generously than the current lot without stealing from the young to do it, so he can only try to win them over at the cost of immolating his own base.
It’s rare seemingly these days I agree with one of OGH’s polling headers and this is no exception.
Yes the gap has closed since the last days of Truss but as others have pointed out there hasn’t been much movement of late.
Using Redfield & Wilton as an example, on October 19th, the VI was 55-19 but by November 27th, this had closed to 47-27 and by March 26th it was 46-27.
The polls tightened with the departure of Truss with a general 6-8% swing back to the Conservatives. Since then, I would argue, the odd Deltapoll outlier notwithstanding, there’s been very little movement with Labour leads between 15 and 20 points.
The 2019 Conservative vote, according to the latest R&W, splits 55% Conservative, 20% Labour and 12% Don’t Know. That 20% move to Labour equates to 9% of the electorate as the Conservatives polled 45% last time.
OGH is correct there has been a small movement of Conservative voters back into the loyal column from the Don’t Know but again that mostly happened with the removal of Truss - last autumn the loyal numbers were in the high 40s and the DKs were nearer 20% and that move is reflected in the overall VI which has seen the Conservative move from around 20% to the upper 20s.
The swing in England from Conservative to Labour is 16-18% and I suspect the local elections next month will show the depth of the Conservative problem in the seats where they are facing Labour.
If you look at countries that strengthened their interest rates more than the US - Mexico and Brazil for example - their currencies appreciated and inflation has come down earlier and more quickly.
I normally only have one token bet a year on the Grand National, but if it occurs to me when I go down the local betting shop (for this is an area where I have not advanced so far as the high sophistication of online gambling) then I may actually ask about this at the same time.
I don't view it as the most likely outcome but if they're offering anything as long as 7/1 on the Tories then it sounds like it might be worth £50 or something. That way, either they get their comeuppance next year or I make a tidy sum in winnings. Result!
If not then she does think it is the business of politicians to tell a woman what they can do.
And the only question being where the time limit is set.