@spectator ‘There is a growing belief that Yousaf simply cannot be the person to lead the SNP into a new era, that a cleaner break from the ‘Old Guard’ is now imperative.’
If the Labour leads drops into single digits they will officially start bricking it
Labour are a clear and present danger to my children and threaten to tax them out of the schools they love and are settled in.
I will laugh tears of joy if they are checked and blocked from office.
I think this is what gets underestimated as a factor, namely the fear factor of your opponent getting in.
I mentioned before what Blair did extremely well in 1997 was reduce the fear for many people of a Labour Government, So many Tories just didn't bother voting.
One thing that may be an issue for Starmer is that, for all the talk of getting the broken, sleazy Tories out, there is a fair cohort that fears Labour - people like yourself that worry about their kids, friends of mine who are naturally Labour voters but worry about the trans issues and people in poor towns who essentially think that, despite his words, Starmer is pro-immigration and will let more people enter.
I know it's Guido but he had an interesting link with voters on what they thought about Sunak and Starmer. Generally positive on Sunak but less complimentary re Starmer and his policies, particularly on saying what he truly thinks.
I personally think we are on track for another Conservative victory (and will bet accordingly).
If the economy is seen to be doing well next year, then the kind of attack lines that work at the moment will fall flat. It's definitely more open than many people assume.
One potentially game changing effect that hasn't really been taken into account is that rising tax receipts in early 2024 give the Government room to cut taxes. Two of the side effects of inflation is that (1) VAT receipts go up because of rising prices and (2) Income tax receipts also go up because of rising wages.
Add in the comparables for inflation get easier in late 2023 / early 2024, and Sunak is going to be having some very favourable boosts on the economic front,
Will it be enough to make people forget how difficult 2022 and early 2023 were?
No. People will have long memories on how these middle years have felt, I believe. Not seen anything like it in the last 10-12 years at least - even when things were supposed to be pretty bad, it didn't feel like this. That will stick in the mind.
The other issue the Tories have is that vast swathes of middle earners will be barely any better off in real terms than they were when the Tories came to power in 2010, and they know it. They also know the public services have declined during that period.
The only people significantly better off are pensioners and top quartile earners.
It's time to wheel out my favourite document again, specifically the following statement:
Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.
The bulk of people aged over 55 are outright homeowners, who are already in receipt of the state pension or are looking forward to retirement in the short or medium term. That is a gigantic and very loyal client group for the Tories, and one that has done fantastically well out of thirteen years of the triple lock, abolition of IHT on most estates, and stratospheric house price rises. Remember also that, adjusting for housing costs, the average pensioner household now has a higher income than the average working household.
There are still plenty of poor pensioners, of course, but most of them are very comfortable indeed. They have nice houses, enjoy affluent lifestyles, and intend to keep doing so for the remainder of their lives before passing on huge transfers of tax-free cash to their offspring. These are not people who are clamouring for change.
This leaves Labour in a right fix. If they try to compete with the Tories by bribing the grey vote then they can only do it at the cost of abandoning their younger supporters to rot; they can, alternatively, attempt to solve the problem by trying to consolidate virtually everyone else (the under-50s and poorer pensioners) behind them, by promising to strip the Tory clients of a chunk of their asset wealth to pay for everything, but they are too frightened to do it.
Labour's next election campaign, therefore, pretty much writes itself: presenting a bit of tinkering as genuine change, and hoping that they can simultaneously reassure enough of the old and con enough of the young to scrape home as a minority administration. After which, they'll put up taxes on the young to pay for the continuation of the triple lock, and change very little else.
Being "not the Tories" might be enough to earn Labour huge polling leads mid-term, but they're not going to wing it to a landslide based on a manifesto that promises to force a plate of shit sandwiches down the throats of their likely backers, as Theresa May would doubtless tell them if they asked her.
Local indies have bankrupted the Parish Council, require a loan, from the Borough Council and a 10.5% increase all 3 standing again. 3 Labour and 1 Tory
I’m really missing the hot take on all thing Scotch from a Scandinavian perspective.
Sad times.
No shortage of hot takes on all things Scotch on here, particularly from a non Scotch perspective.
You should petition your PB overlords if you’re really missing that Scandinavian slant.
Talking about PBUnionists and their pontifications, this story in the DT is interesting re tactical voting for Labout in Scotland. Don't have a sub so can only see the headline here.
I saw one long time Scotpol twitterer (LD I think so no real dog in this fight) suggest that the whole SCons urging tactical voting for SLab was just a bluff to taint them with the old red Tory tag. That would show a nice awareness that even the whiff an alliance with them is electoral death in Scotland.
I'm starting to wonder if there might be a backlash against the "SNP crisis" narrative by the time we get to a Rutherglen by-election. I don't think the pro-indy vote (and thereby SNP vote) will correlate as closely with current events or leaders as it does for the Tories or Labour.
Think it is more resilient, and people don't like being told what to think. If Yes is steady through this period, I think there is a good chance the SNP hold it.
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
That F16 training would have to be going on for quite some time already, if it can be completed in 6 weeks.
I don't think that is what was meant. 6 weeks for a Mig pilot to train on the F-16 from scratch.
That would be…. Remarkable.
That’s faster than conversion courses that turned Wellington pilots into Mosquito pilots at the height of WWII. Simpler aircraft by orders of magnitude.
Keir Starmer is still pushing out disgusting dog-whistle adverts ahead of the local elections, but the first one is still the worst, accusing Rishi Sunak of being soft on child sexual assault when the guidelines to the Sexual Offences Act were amended by the Crown Prosecution Service on his watch as Director of Public Prosecutions
Steamer’s crew have forgotten their strongest suit: under-invested public services.
There are few things more incontrovertible than the awful state of almost all public services in 2023. The health system: a disaster. Education: a lost cause. Policing and justice: on its knees. Local government: doesn’t even have any knees left. Infrastructure and transport: embarrassing. And so on. A government that undertakes to get things actually working again should be more than enough. The country is freaking at the seams and everyone know it. So why is Sir Keir fannying around with offensive UKIP attack ads?
He can't do that because it would require setting out how Labour intent to fund those areas. Higher tax is likely to lose the election and he doesn't have the balls to say enough is enough on old people benefits to fund working age infrastructure.
So ultimately he will say nothing and the Tories, under Rishi, can sneak the 1992 victory. Labour has realised this and are targeting him with these idiotic posters that won't land.
Also the guy heading up Sauchiehall Street during Indyref with all the SLab MPs, playing the Imperial Death March and shouting 'people of Scotland, bow to your Imperial Masters'.
Steamer’s crew have forgotten their strongest suit: under-invested public services.
There are few things more incontrovertible than the awful state of almost all public services in 2023. The health system: a disaster. Education: a lost cause. Policing and justice: on its knees. Local government: doesn’t even have any knees left. Infrastructure and transport: embarrassing. And so on. A government that undertakes to get things actually working again should be more than enough. The country is freaking at the seams and everyone know it. So why is Sir Keir fannying around with offensive UKIP attack ads?
There are some areas of weakness but most public services still work ok, and there have been some notable improvements over the past 13 years. It isn't exactly a failed state. Most of the problems are not visible to the public and not obvious vote winners, IE the problems over pay meaning skilled people leave. Labour need to explain what they would do better and how it would improve people's lives.
Also the guy heading up Sauchiehall Street during Indyref with all the SLab MPs, playing the Imperial Death March and shouting 'people of Scotland, bow to your Imperial Masters'.
I truly wish he'd just shut up and let the music play. It'd have been much more effective. But activists will be activists...
Steamer’s crew have forgotten their strongest suit: under-invested public services.
There are few things more incontrovertible than the awful state of almost all public services in 2023. The health system: a disaster. Education: a lost cause. Policing and justice: on its knees. Local government: doesn’t even have any knees left. Infrastructure and transport: embarrassing. And so on. A government that undertakes to get things actually working again should be more than enough. The country is freaking at the seams and everyone know it. So why is Sir Keir fannying around with offensive UKIP attack ads?
He can't do that because it would require setting out how Labour intent to fund those areas. Higher tax is likely to lose the election and he doesn't have the balls to say enough is enough on old people benefits to fund working age infrastructure.
So ultimately he will say nothing and the Tories, under Rishi, can sneak the 1992 victory. Labour has realised this and are targeting him with these idiotic posters that won't land.
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
I’m really missing the hot take on all thing Scotch from a Scandinavian perspective.
Sad times.
No shortage of hot takes on all things Scotch on here, particularly from a non Scotch perspective.
You should petition your PB overlords if you’re really missing that Scandinavian slant.
Talking about PBUnionists and their pontifications, this story in the DT is interesting re tactical voting for Labout in Scotland. Don't have a sub so can only see the headline here.
I saw one long time Scotpol twitterer (LD I think so no real dog in this fight) suggest that the whole SCons urging tactical voting for SLab was just a bluff to taint them with the old red Tory tag. That would show a nice awareness that even the whiff an alliance with them is electoral death in Scotland.
I'm starting to wonder if there might be a backlash against the "SNP crisis" narrative by the time we get to a Rutherglen by-election. I don't think the pro-indy vote (and thereby SNP vote) will correlate as closely with current events or leaders as it does for the Tories or Labour.
Think it is more resilient, and people don't like being told what to think. If Yes is steady through this period, I think there is a good chance the SNP hold it.
IIRC that seat has flip-flopped between SNP and Labour over the last few elections, but I'd concur that it seems unlikely to be a cakewalk for Labour to take it back again. A chunk of the pro-independence vote might go walkabout for a Scottish Parliament election, where smaller parties can exploit the list system, but for a straightforward two-party battle like this I just don't see the SNP wilting.
The same argument applies more broadly to the likely outcome of the next GE in Scotland. Either Labour has a good campaign and the SNP goes backwards a bit (about 35-40 seats) or they mess it up and the SNP comes back with roughly as many MPs as last time.
Along with 'Starmer is no Blair', it has become commonplace for posters of all stripes to say that if Labour is to seal the deal, Starmer et al need to come up with some big ideas, and have a 'vision' to sell. That's fair enough, and I agree.
However, I'm struggling even more to see the Tories' big ideas, or their 'vision'. What is modern Toryism about, other than 'small boats' type populism? Why should I vote for them? What's Sunak's 'big idea'? I really don't have a clue. I reckon if there's a vacuum in Labour's policy offer, there's at least as large a one in the Tories'.
I'll have a try at this. Most of the electorate is tired after what has been a very hectic 5-6 years - Brexit and its aftermath, straight into Covid and the lockdowns, followed by a major war in Europe and inflation not seen for 40+ years. They don't won't big ideas necessarily, they want things to be stable and for the Government to step in and protect them when they face major difficulties.
FWIW, I think that suits 'Sunak-ism' quite well. He's not one for the Thatcherite bold moves but - to many - he's decent enough and seems competent. That's enough for many.
Labour's problem - and SKS' in particular - is that he has never formulated where Labour will genuinely help people whose main obstacle is trying to deal with a society where the rules seem rigged in favour of big interests and people are resigned to their lives.
I think this is a comfortable interpretation of the psephological circumstances for Conservative leaning voters. It's not the Tories who are at fault, it's Brexit aftermath, COVID, war.
But I think it's nonsense. It's not just about the hectic last 5-6 years. It's about the state of the country that, more broadly, reflects 13 years of Tory leadership. People aren't (merely) tired of hectic events. They're tired of an NHS on its knees, where it's a struggle to get a GP appointment and hospital waiting lists are way up. They're tired of the problems in social care, of how local services have been cut to the bone, of how the police don't investigate crimes.
This has all been exacerbated by the three horsemen of the apocalypse, Brexit, pandemic and war. But these issues go deeper, they go back to austerity. These are not problems solved by Sunak-ism.
Also, while COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are external events, Brexit was the Conservatives (Sunak included).
Which is why, while Sunak may have stemmed the bleeding from the immediate self-inflicted wounds of Johnson and Truss, he can't reverse the main causes of the Tories' polling decline... or so I predict.
Ok - and they were so tired of this in 2019 after 9 years of Tory Government austerity that they, mmm, decided to give the Tories the biggest majority in over 30 years? Ok.
People don't think about what happened 13 years ago, they are thinking about now.
Pictures obtained by the Mail on Sunday show the sleek vehicle is an 'iSmove', made by brand Niesmann + Bischoff, whose catchphrase is: 'Breaking all the rules.'
A similar model of the van is likely to retail at around £110,000.
Along with 'Starmer is no Blair', it has become commonplace for posters of all stripes to say that if Labour is to seal the deal, Starmer et al need to come up with some big ideas, and have a 'vision' to sell. That's fair enough, and I agree.
However, I'm struggling even more to see the Tories' big ideas, or their 'vision'. What is modern Toryism about, other than 'small boats' type populism? Why should I vote for them? What's Sunak's 'big idea'? I really don't have a clue. I reckon if there's a vacuum in Labour's policy offer, there's at least as large a one in the Tories'.
I'll have a try at this. Most of the electorate is tired after what has been a very hectic 5-6 years - Brexit and its aftermath, straight into Covid and the lockdowns, followed by a major war in Europe and inflation not seen for 40+ years. They don't won't big ideas necessarily, they want things to be stable and for the Government to step in and protect them when they face major difficulties.
FWIW, I think that suits 'Sunak-ism' quite well. He's not one for the Thatcherite bold moves but - to many - he's decent enough and seems competent. That's enough for many.
Labour's problem - and SKS' in particular - is that he has never formulated where Labour will genuinely help people whose main obstacle is trying to deal with a society where the rules seem rigged in favour of big interests and people are resigned to their lives.
I think this is a comfortable interpretation of the psephological circumstances for Conservative leaning voters. It's not the Tories who are at fault, it's Brexit aftermath, COVID, war.
But I think it's nonsense. It's not just about the hectic last 5-6 years. It's about the state of the country that, more broadly, reflects 13 years of Tory leadership. People aren't (merely) tired of hectic events. They're tired of an NHS on its knees, where it's a struggle to get a GP appointment and hospital waiting lists are way up. They're tired of the problems in social care, of how local services have been cut to the bone, of how the police don't investigate crimes.
This has all been exacerbated by the three horsemen of the apocalypse, Brexit, pandemic and war. But these issues go deeper, they go back to austerity. These are not problems solved by Sunak-ism.
Also, while COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are external events, Brexit was the Conservatives (Sunak included).
Which is why, while Sunak may have stemmed the bleeding from the immediate self-inflicted wounds of Johnson and Truss, he can't reverse the main causes of the Tories' polling decline... or so I predict.
Ok - and they were so tired of this in 2019 after 9 years of Tory Government austerity that they, mmm, decided to give the Tories the biggest majority in over 30 years? Ok.
People don't think about what happened 13 years ago, they are thinking about now.
2019 was an unusual election. In 2019, many voters didn't like Corbyn and many wanted wanted Brexit. Corbyn is no longer an issue. Brexit is no longer a live issue (we have Brexited) and the aftermath of Brexit has disappointed.
If people are thinking about now, then the Tories are toast, because now is shit.
"Pictures obtained by the Mail on Sunday show the sleek vehicle is an 'iSmove', made by brand Niesmann + Bischoff, whose catchphrase is: 'Breaking all the rules.'"
This may well all peter out into nothing, but there's one aspect I suspect will persist, and that is not believing this stance. The human brain just finds connections too appealing.
Ms Sturgeon has repeatedly denied that a police investigation involving her husband and hundreds of thousands of pounds in allegedly 'missing' party funds contributed to her shock resignation in February.
Speculation that she jumped before she was pushed has been rubbished by the former leader and her team - but was again rife following the dramatic arrest of her husband Mr Murrell on Wednesday.
Steamer’s crew have forgotten their strongest suit: under-invested public services.
There are few things more incontrovertible than the awful state of almost all public services in 2023. The health system: a disaster. Education: a lost cause. Policing and justice: on its knees. Local government: doesn’t even have any knees left. Infrastructure and transport: embarrassing. And so on. A government that undertakes to get things actually working again should be more than enough. The country is freaking at the seams and everyone know it. So why is Sir Keir fannying around with offensive UKIP attack ads?
There are some areas of weakness but most public services still work ok, and there have been some notable improvements over the past 13 years. It isn't exactly a failed state. Most of the problems are not visible to the public and not obvious vote winners, IE the problems over pay meaning skilled people leave. Labour need to explain what they would do better and how it would improve people's lives.
LOL
Could you give us a list of these 'notable improvements.' Thank you.
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
Those are not easy to walk back from, yet if the money and ammo keeps flowing to Ukraine it does not look very achievable. Playing the long game at terrible cost I guess.
@spectator ‘There is a growing belief that Yousaf simply cannot be the person to lead the SNP into a new era, that a cleaner break from the ‘Old Guard’ is now imperative.’
✍️ Lucy Dunn
If the SNP do end up ditching Yousaf then it is practically becoming a trend, and the next time a party has a leadership election they might as well officially declare the runner up as the winner, just to save time.
Trying to think how this scandal could get even more 'Scottish pensioner'.
Funds also spent on:
A ton of artisan Tablet Buying up all the remaining stock of original recipe Irn Bru A wee retirement place in Helensburgh Hand crafted tartan bunnets and comfy slippers A wee dug A silver Honda Jazz
Trying to think how this scandal could get even more 'Scottish pensioner'.
Funds also spent on:
A ton of artisan Tablet Buying up all the remaining stock of original recipe Irn Bru A wee retirement place in Helensburgh Hand crafted tartan bunnets and comfy slippers A wee dug A silver Honda Jazz
Please let them have bought something in England. A Pimlico pied-a-terre?
Trying to think how this scandal could get even more 'Scottish pensioner'.
Funds also spent on:
A ton of artisan Tablet Buying up all the remaining stock of original recipe Irn Bru A wee retirement place in Helensburgh Hand crafted tartan bunnets and comfy slippers A wee dug A silver Honda Jazz
Buying something monarchy related, like a dinner set with a picture of Queen Elizabeth II on every plate.
In case you were wondering why a 92 year old woman needed a fancy camper van:
One neighbour said: 'It's been there for two and a quarter years and it's not moved. It was brought here by two men. They came in early January 2021 around two and a bit years ago, and it's been there ever since. It has never moved to my knowledge.'
Trying to think how this scandal could get even more 'Scottish pensioner'.
Funds also spent on:
A ton of artisan Tablet Buying up all the remaining stock of original recipe Irn Bru A wee retirement place in Helensburgh Hand crafted tartan bunnets and comfy slippers A wee dug A silver Honda Jazz
Please let them have bought something in England. A Pimlico pied-a-terre?
In case you were wondering why a 92 year old woman needed a fancy camper van:
One neighbour said: 'It's been there for two and a quarter years and it's not moved. It was brought here by two men. They came in early January 2021 around two and a bit years ago, and it's been there ever since. It has never moved to my knowledge.'
Oh dear, oh dear. The implication is....
The good people of suburban Dunfermline had all the evidence, Polis Scotland should step up recruitment in Fife.
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
Trying to think how this scandal could get even more 'Scottish pensioner'.
Funds also spent on:
A ton of artisan Tablet Buying up all the remaining stock of original recipe Irn Bru A wee retirement place in Helensburgh Hand crafted tartan bunnets and comfy slippers A wee dug A silver Honda Jazz
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
Sturgeon this evening confirms to the press that she and Peter Murrell are still living together.
If it turns out there was wrongdoing by the arrested party, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if the un-arrested spouse didn't know about it. What a pickle that would be.
Pictures obtained by the Mail on Sunday show the sleek vehicle is an 'iSmove', made by brand Niesmann + Bischoff, whose catchphrase is: 'Breaking all the rules.'
A similar model of the van is likely to retail at around £110,000.
We may be jumping to unfair conclusions here. What if this turns out to be the Indyref2 battle bus?
It's not red with some slogan down the side about sending £350m per week to London, is it?
Trying to think how this scandal could get even more 'Scottish pensioner'.
Funds also spent on:
A ton of artisan Tablet Buying up all the remaining stock of original recipe Irn Bru A wee retirement place in Helensburgh Hand crafted tartan bunnets and comfy slippers A wee dug A silver Honda Jazz
Well, I don't think anyone's said what they found buried in the garden yet...
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
Jon Stewart still pretty good at putting people on the spot. It may well be more nuanced than it seems, but he has a good way of putting the outrage.
Exchange between @jonstewart and @DepSecDef Kathleen Hicks on the defense budget: "I can't figure out how $850 billion to a department means that the rank and file still have to be on food stamps. To me, that's fucking corruption."
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
Those are not easy to walk back from, yet if the money and ammo keeps flowing to Ukraine it does not look very achievable. Playing the long game at terrible cost I guess.
Even minimal is impossible. Even if they got Trump in the USA, Biden would give huge military aid in the lame duck and UK intelligence and funds would remain. The absolutely best they could get is maybe three oblasts, but they won't replace the Ukrainian government.
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
Interestingly, that is almost exactly the same as the plans Austro-Hungary had for Serbia at the start of the First World War.
With the major goal being dismemberment, and Serbia split between the countries surrounding it. (And with Austria-Hungary taking the richest bits.)
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
They only need an EU ID card to travel around Schengen (and non-schengen EU countries like the UK used to be).
Because we never had EU ID cards, this is news to most Britons.
Imagining being such an insular country that half of your population has no desire to travel south of Spain or east of Bulgaria.
Turkey and Morocco accept EU ID cards too. In the same fashion, several carribbean countries accept US driving licenses in lieu of a passport.
How many English people would have a passport if we had the range of climates France has? Most English people aren't going to Spain for the Culture...
Are you including French Guyana, Reunion, Martinique and Saint Pierre & Miquelon in that? (All of which are - in theory - reachable on a French or German ID card.)
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
The man seems so bound up in petty spats and distractions I'm not sure how he became a super billionaire. I mean, I'd like to think that besides vision and daring (and a healthy amount of luck and the right moment) it requires a certain amount of focus to build companies.
And this particular act of pettiness is particularly pointless, because Substack is currently galloping at full speed towards bankruptcy.
I don't recall really noticing it as a thing until last year, with various pundit notables apparently using it to wall off certain long form content. I'm so far removed from what is trendy I find I don't notice new models until they become ubiquitous or are on their last legs.
Not sure wikipedia is doing them favours with its write up. Among the high-profile writers to have used the platform are Pulitzer-Prize-winning journalist and author Glenn Greenwald and Seymour Hersh
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
They only need an EU ID card to travel around Schengen (and non-schengen EU countries like the UK used to be).
Because we never had EU ID cards, this is news to most Britons.
Imagining being such an insular country that half of your population has no desire to travel south of Spain or east of Bulgaria.
Turkey and Morocco accept EU ID cards too. In the same fashion, several carribbean countries accept US driving licenses in lieu of a passport.
How many English people would have a passport if we had the range of climates France has? Most English people aren't going to Spain for the Culture...
Are you including French Guyana, Reunion, Martinique and Saint Pierre & Miquelon in that? (All of which are - in theory - reachable on a French or German ID card.)
But not in Schengen. An odd case. People who complain about NI having a different status to GB might look to the fact that actual departments of France aren't in Schengen...
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
Interestingly, that is almost exactly the same as the plans Austro-Hungary had for Serbia at the start of the First World War.
With the major goal being dismemberment, and Serbia split between the countries surrounding it. (And with Austria-Hungary taking the richest bits.)
And Russia had for Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire.
Well the first did get dismembered and the second lost its Empire but Russia got chopped up as well and collapsed into revolution.
I had no idea that less than half of French and Germany people hold a valid passport, as reported in this article. In the UK the figure is apparently around 80%.
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
So you’re saying that being driven back somewhere near the 2014 front would be seen as a comprehensive defeat ?
"See it. Say it. Sorted.’ In just five words, we created a memorable and motivating call to action for passengers. If people see something unusual, they can speak to a member of rail staff or text British Transport Police, and they will sort it. Simple. And to make sure our printed and digital posters are anything but wallpaper, we have illustrated them in the high-contrast style of the graphic Sin City novels. Unveiled at London Waterloo by Rail Minister, Paul Maynard MP, the campaign has appeared in stations and on trains across the rail network."
"See it. Say it. Sorted.’ In just five words, we created a memorable and motivating call to action for passengers. If people see something unusual, they can speak to a member of rail staff or text British Transport Police, and they will sort it. Simple. And to make sure our printed and digital posters are anything but wallpaper, we have illustrated them in the high-contrast style of the graphic Sin City novels. Unveiled at London Waterloo by Rail Minister, Paul Maynard MP, the campaign has appeared in stations and on trains across the rail network."
Horrific and dystopian slogan that encourages the same kind of tattle tale that encouraged people during state imposed lockdown to report on their neighbour if they had a cup of tea with a friend.
Keir Starmer is still pushing out disgusting dog-whistle adverts ahead of the local elections, but the first one is still the worst, accusing Rishi Sunak of being soft on child sexual assault when the guidelines to the Sexual Offences Act were amended by the Crown Prosecution Service on his watch as Director of Public Prosecutions
Keith wanted to cancel Brexit - Now he's willing to accept it.
Keith wanted to get Jezza elected as PM - Now he's expelled him.
Keith wanted to renationalize the utitlies and reverse Mrs Thatchers privatization revolution - Now he accepts privatization (but he may still renationalize PO and the trains - but then again he may not???)
Keith claimed that a woman CAN have a penis - Now he thinks that 99.9% of women DON'T have a penis, but, but, but 00.01% women DO have a penis????? 🤷♂️ 🙄
Keith was DPP when the CPS "amended" the guidelines for the sexual offences act - Now he accuses Rishi Rich of being "soft" on sexual offences.
Etc, etc, etc...
GBP aren't fools and they can draw the dots. I suspect they may increasingly draw the conclusion Keith would say anything including selling his granny to get elected and therefore he probably shouldn't be trusted.... The next 18 months will be interesting to say the least...
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
Given that they have failed even to occupy the land implied by their minimal objectives where do they go from here?
"See it. Say it. Sorted.’ In just five words, we created a memorable and motivating call to action for passengers. If people see something unusual, they can speak to a member of rail staff or text British Transport Police, and they will sort it. Simple. And to make sure our printed and digital posters are anything but wallpaper, we have illustrated them in the high-contrast style of the graphic Sin City novels. Unveiled at London Waterloo by Rail Minister, Paul Maynard MP, the campaign has appeared in stations and on trains across the rail network."
I am f*cking done with these evil oligarch bastards ruling the roost. Tax the billionaires until they are not billionaires any more. $999m is enough for any man. Every billionaire is a policy failure.
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
So you’re saying that being driven back somewhere near the 2014 front would be seen as a comprehensive defeat ?
No idea. That's never been entertained as a possibility in anything I've seen.
The lines in the Russian media are pretty much exactly the same as the ones we get fed but with the polarity reversed.
1. The enemy is about to run out of everything and is on the verge of collapse. 2. There's a big offensive coming any day now that will change everything. 3. Amazing new weapons will turn the tide. 4. The bastards are stealing kids.
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
So you’re saying that being driven back somewhere near the 2014 front would be seen as a comprehensive defeat ?
No idea. That's never been entertained as a possibility in anything I've seen.
The lines in the Russian media are pretty much exactly the same as the ones we get fed but with the polarity reversed.
1. The enemy is about to run out of everything and is on the verge of collapse. 2. There's a big offensive coming any day now that will change everything. 3. Amazing new weapons will turn the tide. 4. The bastards are stealing kids.
Okay. So the Russians are using the same lines we - and in the case I'd say the 'civilised world' - does.
You're an intelligent chap. I know this wasn't the point of your post, but let's look at each of those in turn, hopefully from a relatively neutral point of view:
1. Yes, Ukraine might run out of everything. Russia is apparently still using more artillery than Ukraine, although both sides have reduced usage massively over recent months. Whether this is due to shortages, or storing up for offensives or counter-offensives, cannot be known. But the West has supplied enough kit to keep Ukraine in the fight without even getting into first gear: the *potential* to provide weaponry to Ukraine is far greater than Russia's to make their own. Soldiers on both sides are complaining of shortages; though whether this is just the expected tactical shortages, or more serious strategic ones, is not known.
2. With what is Russia going to make a big offensive? Their much-heralded winter offensive turned out to be a wasteful damp squib. We *know* Ukraine has small-to-moderate amounts of new, western kit that could be used in an offensive, but which does not yet appear to be being seen in action.
3. If, by new weapons, you mean T54/55 tanks, then yes, Russia has amazing new weapons. Ukraine is getting increasing numbers of new weapons systems - which in general tend to be better performing than Russian ones - from the west.
4. How is Ukraine 'stealing kids'; unless you are of the all-Ukraine-is-Russian mindset? Whereas explicit charges have been placed against Russia on this.
If Russia's lines are the above, then it's just the usual Russian approach of throwing FUD about, in the same way a chocolate-smeared toddler attempts to blame others for eating the easter eggs.
I couldn't see the original FT story behind the payroll. The business is registered to a terraced house in north London. What is the regulation around business addresses? Any chance of regulators popping around for a cup of tea. Who are the directors?
According to Companies House, it doesn't have any!
An interesting if terrifying scenario in many ways. I am interested in scenario where Ukr does reasonably well in an offensive, it is encouraged towards talks by its partners & it tries to engage Russia—but is rebuffed because Kremlin has irreversibly drunk its own kool-aid & can no longer calculate costs/benefits in rational way.
Ukraine's position has changed through the war, but there have been many signals about talks, engagement, compromises, and so on (some nudged by partners). Russia's position has been remarkably consistent—remarkably insensitive to battlefield dynamics.
It is indeed terrifying, because when regimes become insensitive to battlefield dynamics they just keep going until they are utterly defeated, like Germany or Japan in WW2. But they can’t be, because Russia cannot be invaded due to the asymmetry of nuclear deterrence. So the war goes until Ukraine loses or Russia has a change if leadership.
So it’s time to rediscover the hope we all had in Feb 2022, that a tenacious Ukraine would make life impossible for Russia for years and slowly drain its resources and sap its will. It took the Taliban 20 years to achieve that in Afghanistan. Ukraine and the West need similar strategic patience. In 20 years time the Russian population will be significantly smaller than it is now. In the meantime economic sanctions need to be good enough to lay waste to the Russian state’s ability to wage war.
Rather than wait 20 years we could give the Ukrainians longer range artillery and fighter jets. Phillips O'Brien states he was told by a very high ranking source in Washington that F-16 training could be done in 6 weeks.
Well that would be nice but I’m realistic that we don’t have the ammunition or equipment to enable Ukraine to roll over a country prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of its own people into a meat grinder because it’s an organised crime syndicate masquerading as a country.
I think there’s a lot more we could do on sanctions to blunt Russia’s firepower too.
Then of course we have the US 2024 general election where a Trump or De Santis victory means a swift Russian victory thereafter. The US MAGA right is now to all intents and purposes a Russian ally.
Actually De Santis rolled back from his territorial dispute quote, didn't he? And how is Russia going to win? Unless you regard a ceasefire on current lines of engagement as a victory?
Wouldn't they, at this point?
No. Three types of victory (and no types of losses) are generally discussed in Russia media and were pithily summarised by Dugin in his Al Mayadeen article.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
Given that they have failed even to occupy the land implied by their minimal objectives where do they go from here?
I’m interested by the suggestion that Dugin ever wrote anything “pithily”. He normally bangs on like 19th cent philosopher in the mid-syphilis stage.
Comments
‘He’s like a character from The Thick of It, a one man hostage-to-fortune factory’ said one SNP MSP…
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1644753656208584711
‘There is a growing belief that Yousaf simply cannot be the person to lead the SNP into a new era, that a cleaner break from the ‘Old Guard’ is now imperative.’
✍️ Lucy Dunn
Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.
https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/
The bulk of people aged over 55 are outright homeowners, who are already in receipt of the state pension or are looking forward to retirement in the short or medium term. That is a gigantic and very loyal client group for the Tories, and one that has done fantastically well out of thirteen years of the triple lock, abolition of IHT on most estates, and stratospheric house price rises. Remember also that, adjusting for housing costs, the average pensioner household now has a higher income than the average working household.
There are still plenty of poor pensioners, of course, but most of them are very comfortable indeed. They have nice houses, enjoy affluent lifestyles, and intend to keep doing so for the remainder of their lives before passing on huge transfers of tax-free cash to their offspring. These are not people who are clamouring for change.
This leaves Labour in a right fix. If they try to compete with the Tories by bribing the grey vote then they can only do it at the cost of abandoning their younger supporters to rot; they can, alternatively, attempt to solve the problem by trying to consolidate virtually everyone else (the under-50s and poorer pensioners) behind them, by promising to strip the Tory clients of a chunk of their asset wealth to pay for everything, but they are too frightened to do it.
Labour's next election campaign, therefore, pretty much writes itself: presenting a bit of tinkering as genuine change, and hoping that they can simultaneously reassure enough of the old and con enough of the young to scrape home as a minority administration. After which, they'll put up taxes on the young to pay for the continuation of the triple lock, and change very little else.
Being "not the Tories" might be enough to earn Labour huge polling leads mid-term, but they're not going to wing it to a landslide based on a manifesto that promises to force a plate of shit sandwiches down the throats of their likely backers, as Theresa May would doubtless tell them if they asked her.
Can't vote for any of them.
Local indies have bankrupted the Parish Council, require a loan, from the Borough Council and a 10.5% increase all 3 standing again.
3 Labour and 1 Tory
I sense a spoilt ballot coming on.
Think it is more resilient, and people don't like being told what to think. If Yes is steady through this period, I think there is a good chance the SNP hold it.
That’s faster than conversion courses that turned Wellington pilots into Mosquito pilots at the height of WWII. Simpler aircraft by orders of magnitude.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14414099.willie-rennie-upstaged-passionate-pigs-farm-visit/
So ultimately he will say nothing and the Tories, under Rishi, can sneak the 1992 victory. Labour has realised this and are targeting him with these idiotic posters that won't land.
Also the guy heading up Sauchiehall Street during Indyref with all the SLab MPs, playing the Imperial Death March and shouting 'people of Scotland, bow to your Imperial Masters'.
Minimal. Four oblasts plus demilitarisation, regime change and neutrality for Ukraine.
Median. Same as minimal but the Russians get to Kiev.
Maximal. Russians get to Lviv. Ukraine is dismembered with bits going to RF, Poland, Romania and Moldova. The remaining offal becomes Malorussia (again) and joins Belarus and the RF in the Union State.
The same argument applies more broadly to the likely outcome of the next GE in Scotland. Either Labour has a good campaign and the SNP goes backwards a bit (about 35-40 seats) or they mess it up and the SNP comes back with roughly as many MPs as last time.
There was a phase circa 2007 to 2017 where every Unionist leader seemed to be accident prone/unfortunate with the exception of Ruth Davidson.
You remember things like this.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11952887/Fraud-police-probing-missing-funds-SNP-seize-motorhome-Nicola-Sturgeons-laws-drive.html
People don't think about what happened 13 years ago, they are thinking about now.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11952887/Fraud-police-probing-missing-funds-SNP-seize-motorhome-Nicola-Sturgeons-laws-drive.html
Pictures obtained by the Mail on Sunday show the sleek vehicle is an 'iSmove', made by brand Niesmann + Bischoff, whose catchphrase is: 'Breaking all the rules.'
A similar model of the van is likely to retail at around £110,000.
You're not voting Labour.
We will both continue to be disappointed by Sir Keith Donkey.
But FFS you can't honestly tell me the country is better served by the continuation of the Tory government. They *have* to go.
If people are thinking about now, then the Tories are toast, because now is shit.
"Pictures obtained by the Mail on Sunday show the sleek vehicle is an 'iSmove', made by brand Niesmann + Bischoff, whose catchphrase is: 'Breaking all the rules.'"
Ms Sturgeon has repeatedly denied that a police investigation involving her husband and hundreds of thousands of pounds in allegedly 'missing' party funds contributed to her shock resignation in February.
Speculation that she jumped before she was pushed has been rubbished by the former leader and her team - but was again rife following the dramatic arrest of her husband Mr Murrell on Wednesday.
Who the fuck decided to paint the frame around the window beige? Who mixes white and beige? Were they going for the chain-smoker look?
We need to institute a taste test for political leaders. Even Corbyn lives in a nice Victorian house.
Funds also spent on:
A ton of artisan Tablet
Buying up all the remaining stock of original recipe Irn Bru
A wee retirement place in Helensburgh
Hand crafted tartan bunnets and comfy slippers
A wee dug
A silver Honda Jazz
Something like this.
One neighbour said: 'It's been there for two and a quarter years and it's not moved. It was brought here by two men. They came in early January 2021 around two and a bit years ago, and it's been there ever since. It has never moved to my knowledge.'
Oh dear, oh dear. The implication is....
I know what mothers are like, and they worry, and she'll blame herself over this motorhome story.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/08/french-and-german-tourists-turn-their-back-on-brexit-britain
And now the SNP has beaten PB to it!!!!!
What a parcel of rogues for a blog . . .
Because we never had EU ID cards, this is news to most Britons.
If it turns out there was wrongdoing by the arrested party, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if the un-arrested spouse didn't know about it. What a pickle that would be.
It's not red with some slogan down the side about sending £350m per week to London, is it?
Exchange between @jonstewart and @DepSecDef Kathleen Hicks on the defense budget: "I can't figure out how $850 billion to a department means that the rank and file still have to be on food stamps. To me, that's fucking corruption."
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1644426823101476865
How many English people would have a passport if we had the range of climates France has? Most English people aren't going to Spain for the Culture...
With the major goal being dismemberment, and Serbia split between the countries surrounding it. (And with Austria-Hungary taking the richest bits.)
Not sure wikipedia is doing them favours with its write up.
Among the high-profile writers to have used the platform are Pulitzer-Prize-winning journalist and author Glenn Greenwald and Seymour Hersh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substack
Well the first did get dismembered and the second lost its Empire but Russia got chopped up as well and collapsed into revolution.
How does it compare to other European countries ?
That gives some hope.
"See it, say it, sorted
The slogan is not only vulgar, but an implicit lie
Theodore Dalrymple"
https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/march-2023/see-it-say-it-sorted/
"See it. Say it. Sorted.’ In just five words, we created a memorable and motivating call to action for passengers. If people see something unusual, they can speak to a member of rail staff or text British Transport Police, and they will sort it. Simple. And to make sure our printed and digital posters are anything but wallpaper, we have illustrated them in the high-contrast style of the graphic Sin City novels. Unveiled at London Waterloo by Rail Minister, Paul Maynard MP, the campaign has appeared in stations and on trains across the rail network."
https://aml-group.com/our-work/see-it-say-it/
Stasi level bullshit. Fuck it.
Keith wanted to get Jezza elected as PM - Now he's expelled him.
Keith wanted to renationalize the utitlies and reverse Mrs Thatchers privatization revolution - Now he accepts privatization (but he may still renationalize PO and the trains - but then again he may not???)
Keith claimed that a woman CAN have a penis - Now he thinks that 99.9% of women DON'T have a penis, but, but, but 00.01% women DO have a penis????? 🤷♂️ 🙄
Keith was DPP when the CPS "amended" the guidelines for the sexual offences act - Now he accuses Rishi Rich of being "soft" on sexual offences.
Etc, etc, etc...
GBP aren't fools and they can draw the dots. I suspect they may increasingly draw the conclusion Keith would say anything including selling his granny to get elected and therefore he probably shouldn't be trusted.... The next 18 months will be interesting to say the least...
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1644644024010063872
See it.
Saw it.
Fuck it.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/8/7397036/
I am f*cking done with these evil oligarch bastards ruling the roost. Tax the billionaires until they are not billionaires any more. $999m is enough for any man. Every billionaire is a policy failure.
The lines in the Russian media are pretty much exactly the same as the ones we get fed but with the polarity reversed.
1. The enemy is about to run out of everything and is on the verge of collapse.
2. There's a big offensive coming any day now that will change everything.
3. Amazing new weapons will turn the tide.
4. The bastards are stealing kids.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRYgWowRxGk
You're an intelligent chap. I know this wasn't the point of your post, but let's look at each of those in turn, hopefully from a relatively neutral point of view:
1. Yes, Ukraine might run out of everything. Russia is apparently still using more artillery than Ukraine, although both sides have reduced usage massively over recent months. Whether this is due to shortages, or storing up for offensives or counter-offensives, cannot be known. But the West has supplied enough kit to keep Ukraine in the fight without even getting into first gear: the *potential* to provide weaponry to Ukraine is far greater than Russia's to make their own. Soldiers on both sides are complaining of shortages; though whether this is just the expected tactical shortages, or more serious strategic ones, is not known.
2. With what is Russia going to make a big offensive? Their much-heralded winter offensive turned out to be a wasteful damp squib. We *know* Ukraine has small-to-moderate amounts of new, western kit that could be used in an offensive, but which does not yet appear to be being seen in action.
3. If, by new weapons, you mean T54/55 tanks, then yes, Russia has amazing new weapons. Ukraine is getting increasing numbers of new weapons systems - which in general tend to be better performing than Russian ones - from the west.
4. How is Ukraine 'stealing kids'; unless you are of the all-Ukraine-is-Russian mindset? Whereas explicit charges have been placed against Russia on this.
If Russia's lines are the above, then it's just the usual Russian approach of throwing FUD about, in the same way a chocolate-smeared toddler attempts to blame others for eating the easter eggs.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/OC413685/officers
And indeed, it's never had.
Not in breach of the Companies Act at all: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/46/part/10
I'm going to report it to Companies House. Nothing will happen, they're a chocolate teapot.........