politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP hit a record 18% from YouGov in the latest daily poll
After the strong UKIP performances in the most recent Survation, Ashcrfot and ICM polls YouGov is reporting this morning that the party is on 18% – the highest ever figure from the firm.
Comments
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The fact that a over a quarter of the (8/30 seats) that could go UKIP according to the Guardian report are Libdem seats, suggests that my hunch that a lot of their voters voted Liberal for negative reasons (ie they are not the Tories) than any love of Libdems or their policies is right. With the Libdems in coalition with the Tories, those votes are now deeply in peril.
As well as those eight, I'm sure there are plenty of other rural Libdem seats where Libdem voters voting UKIP will hand the seats back to the Tories, even "Safe" seats like Yeovil which already had an above average UKIP vote of 4.1% in the 2010 election and where the Libdems came third with 9,736 well behind both Tories 14,526 and UKIP 16,786 in the South Somerset breakdown of the euro elections.
Based on that, it seems that the worst projections for Libdems in 2015 could come true. From the map I think these are the 8 libdem seats in the 30.
Eastbourne,
Somerton and Frome,
Torbay,
Eastleigh,
North Cornwall,
St Austell & Newquay,
St Ives
Chippenham.
Oh and Insomniacs FIRST!0 -
Wishful thinking I'd suggest.Paul_Mid_Beds said:The fact that a over a quarter of the (8/30 seats) that could go UKIP according to the Guardian report are Libdem seats, suggests that my hunch that a lot of their voters voted Liberal for negative reasons (ie they are not the Tories) than any love of Libdems or their policies is right. With the Libdems in coalition with the Tories, those votes are now deeply in peril.
As well as those eight, I'm sure there are plenty of other rural Libdem seats where Libdem voters voting UKIP will hand the seats back to the Tories, even "Safe" seats like Yeovil which already had an above average UKIP vote of 4.1% in the 2010 election and where the Libdems came third with 9,736 well behind both Tories 14,526 and UKIP 16,786 in the South Somerset breakdown of the euro elections.
Based on that, it seems that the worst projections for Libdems in 2015 could come true. From the map I think these are the 8 libdem seats in the 30.
Eastbourne,
Somerton and Frome,
Torbay,
Eastleigh,
North Cornwall,
St Austell & Newquay,
St Ives
Chippenham.
Oh and Insomniacs FIRST!
Go look at the Ashcroft marginals polling. The latest batch showed a swing from 2010 of just 2% from the LDs to UKIP and in at least two of the seats that you list there's been a swing from CON to LD since the general election.
Lib Dem incumbency is far stronger than for other parties. Remember as well that voters are not asked to choose party leaders, parties but individuals to be their MP.
I am up at this time of night because our cat, which we have had for 15 years, is very poorly.
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Great sympathies extended to Mike Smithson and cat.0
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That reminds me of a bit of statistics I did in 1999: I did a "weighted average" of the 1997 general election results and the 1999 European election results, with more weight on the GE vote shares than the EP vote shares. To be specific, I simply added up the number of votes for each party in each constituency in the two elections, instead of averaging the percentages or whatever.Paul_Mid_Beds said:The fact that a over a quarter of the (8/30 seats) that could go UKIP according to the Guardian report are Libdem seats, suggests that my hunch that a lot of their voters voted Liberal for negative reasons (ie they are not the Tories) than any love of Libdems or their policies is right. With the Libdems in coalition with the Tories, those votes are now deeply in peril.
As well as those eight, I'm sure there are plenty of other rural Libdem seats where Libdem voters voting UKIP will hand the seats back to the Tories, even "Safe" seats like Yeovil which already had an above average UKIP vote of 4.1% in the 2010 election and where the Libdems came third with 9,736 well behind both Tories 14,526 and UKIP 16,786 in the South Somerset breakdown of the euro elections.
Based on that, it seems that the worst projections for Libdems in 2015 could come true. From the map I think these are the 8 libdem seats in the 30.
Eastbourne,
Somerton and Frome,
Torbay,
Eastleigh,
North Cornwall,
St Austell & Newquay,
St Ives
Chippenham.
Oh and Insomniacs FIRST!
If I remember correctly, the results were that the Lib Dems "held" every seat which they had in 1997 north of the London-Bristol latitude, and lost every seat to the Conservative Party south of it (outside of London, I think).
Perhaps a similar thing could be done combining the 2010 GE and 2014 EP results - with the focus being on actual votes, not percentages.0 -
Good morning everyone,
I mentioned yesterday that the Clacton by-election was the key one this year - and now OGH has written a whole paragraph to contradict me.
Ho hum.0 -
Any idea if Labour is going to fight Rochester or are they just going to sit it out again ? Increasingly One Nation seems to mean Merseyside.0
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Some are more equal than others.
Germany to let France off paying penalties to Brussels for missing its budget targets.
France promises to reform but has its fingers crossed.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/10/14/20002-20141014ARTFIG00333-paris-et-berlin-s-entendent-pour-eteindre-la-crise-budgetaire.php0 -
History repeats itself as farce.Alanbrooke said:
Some are more equal than others.
Germany to let France off paying penalties to Brussels for missing its budget targets.
France promises to reform but has its fingers crossed.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/10/14/20002-20141014ARTFIG00333-paris-et-berlin-s-entendent-pour-eteindre-la-crise-budgetaire.php
Bet that story will be popular in Greece, Ireland, Spain, & Italy amongst others. At least they haven't yet had their PM removed.0 -
Seems a good time to remind everyone of my GE prediction (again)... Con 35 Lab 25 UKIP 23. The SNP to poll more votes than the Lib Dems. Not much more from me to-day because it's Bridge day - I know what really matters in life!0
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Blimey. And Yay! What would that translate to in seats?Innocent_Abroad said:Seems a good time to remind everyone of my GE prediction (again)... Con 35 Lab 25 UKIP 23. The SNP to poll more votes than the Lib Dems. Not much more from me to-day because it's Bridge day - I know what really matters in life!
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I doubt UKIP would win more than about 50 seats on that sort of national percentage.Patrick said:
Blimey. And Yay! What would that translate to in seats?Innocent_Abroad said:Seems a good time to remind everyone of my GE prediction (again)... Con 35 Lab 25 UKIP 23. The SNP to poll more votes than the Lib Dems. Not much more from me to-day because it's Bridge day - I know what really matters in life!
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Sitting it out, I think, Alan.Alanbrooke said:Any idea if Labour is going to fight Rochester or are they just going to sit it out again ? Increasingly One Nation seems to mean Merseyside.
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History repeats itself -France never pays fines or penalties imposed by the EU. And exactly how would the EU enforce payment?Alanbrooke said:
Some are more equal than others.
Germany to let France off paying penalties to Brussels for missing its budget targets.
France promises to reform but has its fingers crossed.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/10/14/20002-20141014ARTFIG00333-paris-et-berlin-s-entendent-pour-eteindre-la-crise-budgetaire.php0 -
But what would Lab / Con 25/35 deliver? I have no idea. Baxter and other regular models would be useless. Is the UKIP 18% evely spread? Is it eating more into Dave or into Ed? I think we're in for an utterly pivotal and utterly unpredictable GE.Peter_the_Punter said:
I doubt UKIP would win more than about 50 seats on that sort of national percentage.Patrick said:
Blimey. And Yay! What would that translate to in seats?Innocent_Abroad said:Seems a good time to remind everyone of my GE prediction (again)... Con 35 Lab 25 UKIP 23. The SNP to poll more votes than the Lib Dems. Not much more from me to-day because it's Bridge day - I know what really matters in life!
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The more Westminster talks about the WLQ the less the man on the street is engaged and the more he/she thinks: "sod it, they're all the same, I'm going to find someone who's not them."
ie UKIP
(choc full of ex-Westminster coterie party members as it is)0 -
YouGov Poll
The UKIP effect hits LAB most this time.
Labour's 2010 VI retention is at a year low of 76% (recently ~80%) and loses 11% to UKIP which is higher than their running average over the last month of 6.5%.
Also the economy matters most personally to Cons and LDs but Labour put health just above it and UKIP put immigration. Do Labour voters really believe this or are they just aping their recent party line?0 -
Indeed. Hence no attempt on my part to estimate the shape of the Commons.Patrick said:
But what would Lab / Con 25/35 deliver? I have no idea. Baxter and other regular models would be useless. Is the UKIP 18% evely spread? Is it eating more into Dave or into Ed? I think we're in for an utterly pivotal and utterly unpredictable GE.Peter_the_Punter said:
I doubt UKIP would win more than about 50 seats on that sort of national percentage.Patrick said:
Blimey. And Yay! What would that translate to in seats?Innocent_Abroad said:Seems a good time to remind everyone of my GE prediction (again)... Con 35 Lab 25 UKIP 23. The SNP to poll more votes than the Lib Dems. Not much more from me to-day because it's Bridge day - I know what really matters in life!
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YouGov Polls
Returning to the infamous subject of Scottish sub-samples, currently SNP are running at an average of 39.4 (31.8 just prior to IndyRef) and Labour at 28.3. (32.2)0 -
What do prime minister's do when they know they are about to lose their jobs in a few months I wonder. Must be hard to keep up appearances.0
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I've met Michelle Donelan, the Tory candidate in Chippenham.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Based on that, it seems that the worst projections for Libdems in 2015 could come true. From the map I think these are the 8 libdem seats in the 30.
Eastbourne,
Somerton and Frome,
Torbay,
Eastleigh,
North Cornwall,
St Austell & Newquay,
St Ives
Chippenham.
Oh and Insomniacs FIRST!
Very down to earth, not a posh southerner (northern accent for a start!). Father ran a small business which was smothered by regulation under Blair/Brown and ended up failing. (No ideal if that is true, but it's what she says). Classic Thatcherite position on most issues, Working very hard.
I could see that she would appeal to a lot of potential UKIP voters.0 -
Seven weeks after the Rotherham report and these questions still remain unanswered:
What action is Home Secretary Theresa May taking against the South Yorkshire Police after the widespread reports of its collaboration with child rapists.
When is Childrens Minister Edward Timpson going to place Rotherham Childrens Services into 'special measures'.
What action is Policing Minister Mike Penning taking to ensure that the police's 'Day of Reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' takes place.
How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and what did she chose to do about it.
Why is Prime Minister David Cameron showing no interest in the issue despite his emphasis on 'Broken Britain' while Leader of the Opposition.
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Good morning all.Patrick said:
But what would Lab / Con 25/35 deliver? I have no idea. Baxter and other regular models would be useless. Is the UKIP 18% evely spread? Is it eating more into Dave or into Ed? I think we're in for an utterly pivotal and utterly unpredictable GE.Peter_the_Punter said:
I doubt UKIP would win more than about 50 seats on that sort of national percentage.Patrick said:
Blimey. And Yay! What would that translate to in seats?Innocent_Abroad said:Seems a good time to remind everyone of my GE prediction (again)... Con 35 Lab 25 UKIP 23. The SNP to poll more votes than the Lib Dems. Not much more from me to-day because it's Bridge day - I know what really matters in life!
Indeed, Baxter's Electoral Calculus is currently redundant. I really hope he can produce a model that works but it would need to tailor every constituency and build in tactical voting re. UKIP e.g. Lab to UKIP.
That would produce a Tory landslide. Some of the permutations if UKIP did poll highly are quite bizarre. However, I suspect strongly they won't do this in the GE. Perhaps 15% but I'm not holding my breath.Innocent_Abroad said:Seems a good time to remind everyone of my GE prediction (again)... Con 35 Lab 25 UKIP 23. The SNP to poll more votes than the Lib Dems. Not much more from me to-day because it's Bridge day - I know what really matters in life!
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Brent crude goes below $85 - early days, but where is bottom?0
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Have you tried getting your MP to ask a question in the House etc?another_richard said:Seven weeks after the Rotherham report and these questions still remain unanswered:
What action is Home Secretary Theresa May taking against the South Yorkshire Police after the widespread reports of its collaboration with child rapists.
When is Childrens Minister Edward Timpson going to place Rotherham Childrens Services into 'special measures'.
What action is Policing Minister Mike Penning taking to ensure that the police's 'Day of Reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' takes place.
How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and what did she chose to do about it.
Why is Prime Minister David Cameron showing no interest in the issue despite his emphasis on 'Broken Britain' while Leader of the Opposition.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Letting France completely off conforming to apparently strong budget restraint is stupid economically (this happened with the rules to join the euro, and we know how well that's working), but even worse politically. Will Spain or Italy get the same leeway?0 -
I mentioned this issue the other day following the H&M by election. There's potentially very big trouble for Labour if they lose core support to UKIP.Financier said:YouGov Poll
The UKIP effect hits LAB most this time.
Labour's 2010 VI retention is at a year low of 76% (recently ~80%) and loses 11% to UKIP which is higher than their running average over the last month of 6.5%.
We should also remember that every by election poll for the past 2 years has overstated Labour's share, and 9 out of 10 Euro polls did. Something needs to account for that, and my current theory is 'shy non-Labour' who are core working man Labour voters who are secretly voting UKIP.
For all the excitement about this current phenomenon we still need to remember that 1. for most people the GE isn't on a list of 1000 matters they are thinking about and 2. when they spotlights are turned on next spring UKIP will rightly face a lot of glare.
p.s. sorry to hear about your dear old cat Mike and hope it gets better.0 -
Just a thought but there was what has proved to be an optimistic theory that UKIP would fade away from the public consciousness after the Euros and would struggle to get airtime. Instead we are going to spend much of the period up to the next election debating their prospects at a series of by elections.
What a happy outcome. The cynic in me would wonder if this was planned and how long these MPs, particularly Carswell, have been chatting to Nigel. As a strategy it looks like it is working though.0 -
Do you think that it would be more constructive to take this action in private without tipping off the media until the right time?another_richard said:Seven weeks after the Rotherham report and these questions still remain unanswered:
What action is Home Secretary Theresa May taking against the South Yorkshire Police after the widespread reports of its collaboration with child rapists.
When is Childrens Minister Edward Timpson going to place Rotherham Childrens Services into 'special measures'.
What action is Policing Minister Mike Penning taking to ensure that the police's 'Day of Reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' takes place.
How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and what did she chose to do about it.
Why is Prime Minister David Cameron showing no interest in the issue despite his emphasis on 'Broken Britain' while Leader of the Opposition.
IIRC, you were very critical about the SYP leaking the "Day of Reckoning" in advance.
edit: and can child service be put into "special measures"? (genuine question) I know the government had to introduce legislation to allow nhs trusts to be.0 -
I doubt it David. There wouldn't be any more by elections now this side of February because of Christmas recess and with Parliament being dissolved on April 06th that makes it unlikely they would bother this side of May 07th. I suspect this is the last by election we will see this Parliament.DavidL said:Instead we are going to spend much of the period up to the next election debating their prospects at a series of by elections.
What a happy outcome. The cynic in me would wonder if this was planned and how long these MPs, particularly Carswell, have been chatting to Nigel. As a strategy it looks like it is working though.0 -
This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
I think they will this time around but have no doubt that the Eurofanatics and Germany will be determined to have the centre have more say about budgets in future forcing deeper integration and rule changes. Pre-approval of budgets in future seems likely. This is an inevitable consequence of a single currency and those countries who didn't realise this or its consequences are in for a shock or, more likely, a series of shocks.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Letting France completely off conforming to apparently strong budget restraint is stupid economically (this happened with the rules to join the euro, and we know how well that's working), but even worse politically. Will Spain or Italy get the same leeway?
This deeper integration of the EZ is my single biggest concern about the future of the EU. It is inevitable that this bloc will start to agree between themselves how the EU budget might usefully be spent when times are hard and capital investment is required, what sort of regulation best suits them and how unsatisfactory all that rampant capitalism in London is. My expectation is that within the next decade, (probably not in 2017 because we will have a minority Labour administration) this is going to drive us out.0 -
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.
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Mr. L, indeed. The closer integration will only make the chasm between economies in the eurozone deeper, before they plunge into the abyss.
Mr. F, it's petty, vindictive, state-knows-best bullshit.0 -
Looking at the internals of this poll, UKIP would take 2.5 m votes from the Conservatives, and 1m each from Labour and Lib Dems, if repeated in an election. Of course, what matters is *where* these votes are taken.0
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Some of us can gain weight without ever having smoked. I recommend beer, wine and fatty food.Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.
Personally, I think the ban on smoking in pubs and restaurants has been great. When you go abroad and see people lighting up as you try to eat it brings back how unpleasant it used to be. Objecting to smoking in public places seems to me to be swinging the pendulum a bit far though. That generally has a lot less impact on non smokers.0 -
O/T
Just wanted to let people know the latest charities we've funded if anyone is interested in backing them or getting involved
Archway Project (www.archwayproject.org) - Training for young people referred by Youth Offending Schemes / Police to help give them qualifications and skills to avoid crime (London)
Covent Garden Dragon Hall (www.dragonhall.org.uk) - helping a youth centre in central London develop external income sources
Generation Rwanda (www.generationrwanda.org) - similar to the work we did with GROW in Uganda and Business Bridge in South Africa this programme is designed to teach young people the skills they need to set up and develop their own businesses
Bridge Community Education Centre (www.thebridgebrigton.com) funding the development of a new one-on-one adult literacy programme in East Brighton0 -
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
Pentagon warns on Climate Change:
http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/CCARprint.pdf0 -
As usual, my political instincts were wrong. I assumed Ukip would peak in May at the Euros and drift slowly down to about 10% for the GE.
But all publicity seems to be good publicity this year. That, and a few grey swans like Rotherham and a couple of defections. Rotherham will either surface in time for the GE, or vanish from the MSM and be a running sore that Ukip can scratch.
Lucky beats competent so far, but if they can sort out their structure and policies. Ukip could be a player in the coalition games after the election.
But as that's my prediction, it's probably up there with Southam's usual reading of the tea leaves.0 -
Indeed, there was a time not so long ago when a poster used to highlight the Ukip score in the daily you gov at 10.01 each day with a little commentaryDavidL said:Just a thought but there was what has proved to be an optimistic theory that UKIP would fade away from the public consciousness after the Euros and would struggle to get airtime. Instead we are going to spend much of the period up to the next election debating their prospects at a series of by elections.
What a happy outcome. The cynic in me would wonder if this was planned and how long these MPs, particularly Carswell, have been chatting to Nigel. As a strategy it looks like it is working though.
"They just ain't getting 14% anymore"
It's still true. Why don't you do it anymore @TGOHF?0 -
Though not a smoker myself, I like a bar where people can still smoke. It makes it feel like a more authentic place of small pleasures, which is what a bar/pub should be. Restaurants are another matter.DavidL said:
Some of us can gain weight without ever having smoked. I recommend beer, wine and fatty food.Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.
Personally, I think the ban on smoking in pubs and restaurants has been great. When you go abroad and see people lighting up as you try to eat it brings back how unpleasant it used to be. Objecting to smoking in public places seems to me to be swinging the pendulum a bit far though. That generally has a lot less impact on non smokers.
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A month long splurge of negative press coverage before the 2014 EU Parliament elections didn't stop UKIP winning the 2014 EU Parliament elections.audreyanne said:
For all the excitement about this current phenomenon we still need to remember that 1. for most people the GE isn't on a list of 1000 matters they are thinking about and 2. when they spotlights are turned on next spring UKIP will rightly face a lot of glare.
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I thought all the laws limiting consensual sex between adults had been repealed in the last 20 years or so?Patrick said:
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
I really dislike the smell of smoke, and some smokers can be very inconsiderate, but it seems far too far. I am often around Trafalgar square and it's been very rare that I've been affected by smoke, and even when I am, I can move away from it.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
Soliciting for nookie is still illegal. As are brothels. Although I note with interest that all EU countries (incl UK) now include sex and drugs in their GDP figures! (How hypocritical is that!) (It also means the 0.1% growth of eg France is actually a like-for-like decline. It's only the Bois de Boulogne at night keeping them from a technical recession).ThomasNashe said:
I thought all the laws limiting consensual sex between adults had been repealed in the last 20 years or so?Patrick said:
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
In Trafalgar Square? or is that your alternate fix?ThomasNashe said:
I thought all the laws limiting consensual sex between adults had been repealed in the last 20 years or so?Patrick said:
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
Shame it's a defence document with zilch science.logical_song said:Pentagon warns on Climate Change:
http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/CCARprint.pdf
Some think there has been no global warming for the past 18 years http://order-order.com/2014/10/01/there-has-been-no-global-warming-for-past-18-years/
I must admit to becoming more sceptical about the whole AGW religion.0 -
The debate in the UK about limiting EU migration is fantasy.
It is not going to happen no matter what hue the government.
The options are In the EU or Out. This is the honest position.0 -
Quick, bring me the Zeitgeist tape!!
Ed Miliband is researching popular television shows despite not watching them amid criticism of his perceived image problem, according to reports.
@Sean_Kemp: Was about to say this story was surely made-up, then saw it was based on an Ed quote and the party had stood it up: http://t.co/YZqh9m5nOO
The Labour leader is said to be brushing up his knowledge of British favourites like EastEnders via online research as the 2015 general election approaches.0 -
I have a very limited imagination.Financier said:
In Trafalgar Square? or is that your alternate fix?ThomasNashe said:
I thought all the laws limiting consensual sex between adults had been repealed in the last 20 years or so?Patrick said:
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
Miss Anne, it's lucky for you that, for doctrinal reasons, Warmists are unable to burn heretics.0
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Yeah but the Euros were heaven-sent for UKIP if you think about it. AA (Anecdote Alert) but my sister voted for them, to my shame, but says she probably wouldn't at the GE.anotherDave said:
A month long splurge of negative press coverage before the 2014 EU Parliament elections didn't stop UKIP winning the 2014 EU Parliament elections.audreyanne said:
For all the excitement about this current phenomenon we still need to remember that 1. for most people the GE isn't on a list of 1000 matters they are thinking about and 2. when they spotlights are turned on next spring UKIP will rightly face a lot of glare.
People tend to grow up when it comes to the General Election. There's nothing quite like thinking about your salary / mortgage / rent to focus the mind away from trivia to the things which really matter.0 -
I suppose there is the argument that if people enjoy doing something, the State needs to ban it, or at least monitor, tax, regulate, and preach at the people who do it.Patrick said:
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.
0 -
Yes - the argument of lefty morons!Sean_F said:
I suppose there is the argument that if people enjoy doing something, the State needs to ban it, or at least monitor, tax, regulate, and preach at the people who do it.Patrick said:
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
Philip Webster (@Pwebstertimes)
15/10/2014 08:19
Voters want Farage in all TV debates and Greens to have a lookin. Exc You Gov poll for Times Red Box0 -
0
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We are close to that point but not quite. Mid-December is generally viewed as a rough cut-off point. If we see a defection or sadly a death in next 4 or 5 weeks there'd still most likely be a by-election. But it's getting tight. Of course it also rather depends on the mood of the party whose seat it was. As they are all in a bad mood except UKIP, Greens and SNP, then maybe you'll be right and nobody will move the writs. A Labour defection north of the 'border' would be a delicious betting prospect for us lot.audreyanne said:
I doubt it David. There wouldn't be any more by elections now this side of February because of Christmas recess and with Parliament being dissolved on April 06th that makes it unlikely they would bother this side of May 07th. I suspect this is the last by election we will see this Parliament.DavidL said:Instead we are going to spend much of the period up to the next election debating their prospects at a series of by elections.
What a happy outcome. The cynic in me would wonder if this was planned and how long these MPs, particularly Carswell, have been chatting to Nigel. As a strategy it looks like it is working though.0 -
Rotherham seems to just be a template rather than a one off.CD13 said:
As usual, my political instincts were wrong. I assumed Ukip would peak in May at the Euros and drift slowly down to about 10% for the GE.
But all publicity seems to be good publicity this year. That, and a few grey swans like Rotherham and a couple of defections. Rotherham will either surface in time for the GE, or vanish from the MSM and be a running sore that Ukip can scratch.
Lucky beats competent so far, but if they can sort out their structure and policies. Ukip could be a player in the coalition games after the election.
But as that's my prediction, it's probably up there with Southam's usual reading of the tea leaves.
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-10-14/itv-news-investigation-finds-hundreds-of-child-abusers-walking-free-in-manchester-due-to-police-failings/
The Greater Manchester PCC is a former Labour MP.
http://www.police.uk/greater-manchester/pcc/
http://www.gmpcc.org.uk
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Probably referring to incestThomasNashe said:
I thought all the laws limiting consensual sex between adults had been repealed in the last 20 years or so?Patrick said:
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
@Sean_Kemp: Was about to say this story was surely made-up, then saw it was based on an Ed quote and the party had stood it up: http://t.co/YZqh9m5nOOScott_P said:Quick, bring me the Zeitgeist tape!!
Ed Miliband is researching popular television shows despite not watching them amid criticism of his perceived image problem, according to reports.
The Labour leader is said to be brushing up his knowledge of British favourites like EastEnders via online research as the 2015 general election approaches.
Oh Lord. That reminds me of that wonderful Series 1 Episode 2 of The Thick of It where Malcolm Tucker tries to get Abbot to watch Eastenders etc. because he's so out of touch.
You can't make this up. Miliband = Hugh Abbot argh0 -
[Scary thought] what if those newly focused minds don't see the world the same way you do? Ick!audreyanne said:
People tend to grow up when it comes to the General Election. There's nothing quite like thinking about your salary / mortgage / rent to focus the mind away from trivia to the things which really matter.anotherDave said:
A month long splurge of negative press coverage before the 2014 EU Parliament elections didn't stop UKIP winning the 2014 EU Parliament elections.audreyanne said:
For all the excitement about this current phenomenon we still need to remember that 1. for most people the GE isn't on a list of 1000 matters they are thinking about and 2. when they spotlights are turned on next spring UKIP will rightly face a lot of glare.0 -
Agree. It seems a silly idea.Socrates said:
I really dislike the smell of smoke, and some smokers can be very inconsiderate, but it seems far too far. I am often around Trafalgar square and it's been very rare that I've been affected by smoke, and even when I am, I can move away from it.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
OK. Fair enough. But the argument about the increasing reach of the nanny state ignores some quite significant counter trends (relaxing the licensing laws, equalising the age of consent, ending the prohibition of sodomy, for example).isam said:
Probably referring to incestThomasNashe said:
I thought all the laws limiting consensual sex between adults had been repealed in the last 20 years or so?Patrick said:
What's the point of having a nanny-state if ya can't get some good hard nannying in? You don't own your own body - it belongs to the state. (and hence there are laws limiting consensual sex between adults).Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.0 -
That's called democracy.anotherDave said:
[Scary thought] what if those newly focused minds don't see the world the same way you do? Ick!audreyanne said:
People tend to grow up when it comes to the General Election. There's nothing quite like thinking about your salary / mortgage / rent to focus the mind away from trivia to the things which really matter.anotherDave said:
A month long splurge of negative press coverage before the 2014 EU Parliament elections didn't stop UKIP winning the 2014 EU Parliament elections.audreyanne said:
For all the excitement about this current phenomenon we still need to remember that 1. for most people the GE isn't on a list of 1000 matters they are thinking about and 2. when they spotlights are turned on next spring UKIP will rightly face a lot of glare.0 -
Oh Lord. That reminds me of that wonderful Series 1 Episode 2 of The Thick of It where Malcolm Tucker tries to get Abbot to watch Eastenders etc. because he's so out of touch.audreyanne said:
@Sean_Kemp: Was about to say this story was surely made-up, then saw it was based on an Ed quote and the party had stood it up: http://t.co/YZqh9m5nOOScott_P said:Quick, bring me the Zeitgeist tape!!
Ed Miliband is researching popular television shows despite not watching them amid criticism of his perceived image problem, according to reports.
The Labour leader is said to be brushing up his knowledge of British favourites like EastEnders via online research as the 2015 general election approaches.
You can't make this up. Miliband = Hugh Abbot argh
Far better just to admit to not liking Eastenders than 'researching it' . Nick Palmer shows the way here, rather than pretend to be interested in football he just says he does not like it. Fair enough I respect that, even though I do like football. (Not Eastenders though)0 -
@Financier
Cable down to $1.59 as well which should help pump prices
Given I bought dollars at $1.70 a few months ago I'm think of trading back into sterling 0 -
You're assuming that action is being taken in private.Charles said:
Do you think that it would be more constructive to take this action in private without tipping off the media until the right time?another_richard said:Seven weeks after the Rotherham report and these questions still remain unanswered:
What action is Home Secretary Theresa May taking against the South Yorkshire Police after the widespread reports of its collaboration with child rapists.
When is Childrens Minister Edward Timpson going to place Rotherham Childrens Services into 'special measures'.
What action is Policing Minister Mike Penning taking to ensure that the police's 'Day of Reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' takes place.
How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and what did she chose to do about it.
Why is Prime Minister David Cameron showing no interest in the issue despite his emphasis on 'Broken Britain' while Leader of the Opposition.
IIRC, you were very critical about the SYP leaking the "Day of Reckoning" in advance.
edit: and can child service be put into "special measures"? (genuine question) I know the government had to introduce legislation to allow nhs trusts to be.
The record of this government suggests it isn't.
IIRC the immediate response to the Rotherham report from Downing Street was a media statement saying 'lessons have been learnt'. The great euphemism for nothing will be done.
You don't have to go far from Rotherham to find a council which has had its childrens services placed into special measures. As, IIRC, it happened to Doncaster's in around 2010.
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I agree with that. Banned in restaurants and cafes. But allowed in pubs, or at least a smoking room/smoking zone allowed in pubs into which pub staff are not obliged to enter/work in if they do not wish.SouthamObserver said:
Though not a smoker myself, I like a bar where people can still smoke. It makes it feel like a more authentic place of small pleasures, which is what a bar/pub should be. Restaurants are another matter.DavidL said:
Some of us can gain weight without ever having smoked. I recommend beer, wine and fatty food.Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.
Personally, I think the ban on smoking in pubs and restaurants has been great. When you go abroad and see people lighting up as you try to eat it brings back how unpleasant it used to be. Objecting to smoking in public places seems to me to be swinging the pendulum a bit far though. That generally has a lot less impact on non smokers.0 -
Ukip policyCasino_Royale said:
I agree with that. Banned in restaurants and cafes. But allowed in pubs, or at least a smoking room/smoking zone allowed in pubs into which pub staff are not obliged to enter/work in if they do not wish.SouthamObserver said:
Though not a smoker myself, I like a bar where people can still smoke. It makes it feel like a more authentic place of small pleasures, which is what a bar/pub should be. Restaurants are another matter.DavidL said:
Some of us can gain weight without ever having smoked. I recommend beer, wine and fatty food.Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.
Personally, I think the ban on smoking in pubs and restaurants has been great. When you go abroad and see people lighting up as you try to eat it brings back how unpleasant it used to be. Objecting to smoking in public places seems to me to be swinging the pendulum a bit far though. That generally has a lot less impact on non smokers.
0 -
Sturgeon crowned as leader.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29618913
One candidate, one Scotland...
SNP don't seem to learn from the mistakes of others.0 -
Miliband and Eastenders? I know a high profile MP who didn't even have a television before being elected in 2010!0
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Sterling continues to plummet. Down 4% YOY
FTSE down 10% in a fortnight
Wages growth still behind inflation 0.9% despite inflation being 1.2%
Slit your wrist times on Bloomberg0 -
Oh Lord. That reminds me of that wonderful Series 1 Episode 2 of The Thick of It where Malcolm Tucker tries to get Abbot to watch Eastenders etc. because he's so out of touch.audreyanne said:
@Sean_Kemp: Was about to say this story was surely made-up, then saw it was based on an Ed quote and the party had stood it up: http://t.co/YZqh9m5nOOScott_P said:Quick, bring me the Zeitgeist tape!!
Ed Miliband is researching popular television shows despite not watching them amid criticism of his perceived image problem, according to reports.
The Labour leader is said to be brushing up his knowledge of British favourites like EastEnders via online research as the 2015 general election approaches.
You can't make this up. Miliband = Hugh Abbot argh
Miliband won't get a very accurate gauge of East London demographics from Eastenders.
I would say it is worse than midsomer murders in terms of representation of non white Brits and Eastern Europeans0 -
Thanks Charles - will take a look at those in due course.Charles said:O/T
Just wanted to let people know the latest charities we've funded if anyone is interested in backing them or getting involved
Archway Project (www.archwayproject.org) - Training for young people referred by Youth Offending Schemes / Police to help give them qualifications and skills to avoid crime (London)
Covent Garden Dragon Hall (www.dragonhall.org.uk) - helping a youth centre in central London develop external income sources
Generation Rwanda (www.generationrwanda.org) - similar to the work we did with GROW in Uganda and Business Bridge in South Africa this programme is designed to teach young people the skills they need to set up and develop their own businesses
Bridge Community Education Centre (www.thebridgebrigton.com) funding the development of a new one-on-one adult literacy programme in East Brighton0 -
There isn't any doubt that the SNP are on top in Scotland at the moment. A side-effect is that Labour's English score is actually better than you'd think from the overall figure - Scotland is now our weakest region by some margin.Financier said:YouGov Polls
Returning to the infamous subject of Scottish sub-samples, currently SNP are running at an average of 39.4 (31.8 just prior to IndyRef) and Labour at 28.3. (32.2)
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I see the BBC has deigned to report on the fact that hundreds of child rapists are walking the streets of Greater Manchester. Not on the main website of course, but as the eighth most important story in the "England" subsection: seven places below a proposal to ban smoking in London's public places and six places below a rugby player getting abuse on twitter.0
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@iainmartin1: More Ed Miliband on EastEnders: "Y'know, down the market I ran into a man called Phil Mitchell who threatened to break my legs..."0
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UK average earnings rise 0.7% Annual. (Bloomberg)
Meanwhile in Chelsea the Glamburger is on the menu at £1700 (the worlds most expensive burger)
0 -
@christopherhope: Wow! Unemployment has seen the largest annual fall since records began over 40 years ago. Big boost for David Cameron ahead of #PMQs today.0
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did you experience the exquisite pain in your trip to japan of contemplating a dish of exquisite sashimi just as some boor at the next table decides to light up between courses without so much as a by-your-leave? Not great.SouthamObserver said:
Though not a smoker myself, I like a bar where people can still smoke. It makes it feel like a more authentic place of small pleasures, which is what a bar/pub should be. Restaurants are another matter.
health care in Japan seems a fair bit less judgmental which I think is a good think. smokers treated like adults, not shamed for their habit.
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And in other news today, UK unemployment has fallen by 154,000 in the three months to the end of August to 1.97 millionbigjohnowls said:Sterling continues to plummet. Down 4% YOY
FTSE down 10% in a fortnight
Wages growth still behind inflation 0.9% despite inflation being 1.2%
Slit your wrist times on Bloomberg
The drop takes the unemployment rate to 6%, its lowest level since late 2008.
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Again excellent unemployment figures. But below inflation wage rises. So no economic mojo.0
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@iainmartin1: Ed Miliband's day so far: EastEnders embarrassment and huge fall in unemployment. Next #PMQs0
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Good news more peoples wages falling behind inflation.Gadfly said:
And in other news today, UK unemployment has fallen by 154,000 in the three months to the end of August to 1.97 millionbigjohnowls said:Sterling continues to plummet. Down 4% YOY
FTSE down 10% in a fortnight
Wages growth still behind inflation 0.9% despite inflation being 1.2%
Slit your wrist times on Bloomberg
The drop takes the unemployment rate to 6%, its lowest level since late 2008.
My neighbours son has just come off the unemployment register apparently he has been persuaded to go self employed.
what is his business you ask
He says nothing but I get 40p a week extra benefits.
Sounds crazy advice to me but i wonder how many others have done this.
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Apart from anything else no government should introduce laws that it cannot enforce**. You can ban smoking in pubs because the licensee is ultimately responsible and stands to lose his livelihood if they defy the law.DavidL said:
Some of us can gain weight without ever having smoked. I recommend beer, wine and fatty food.Sean_F said:
There does seem to be rather a nasty desire to poke smokers in the eye.Morris_Dancer said:This seems rather too far to me. Apparently some want to ban smoking in Trafalgar Square and other public spaces in London:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.
Personally, I think the ban on smoking in pubs and restaurants has been great. When you go abroad and see people lighting up as you try to eat it brings back how unpleasant it used to be. Objecting to smoking in public places seems to me to be swinging the pendulum a bit far though. That generally has a lot less impact on non smokers.
Try banning smoking in vast public parks and you either have to create an expensive police state apparatus to enforce the law, or you will get people into the habit of breaking the law.
** Incidentally, this is one argument against raising the tax threshold so that a person on the minimum wage working full-time hours paid no income tax. At that level these people would not be in the tax system, and so it would be harder to enforce the minimum wage.0 -
Stunningly good employment figures.0
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I bet Miliband's regretting forgetting the centrepiece of his conference speech now. He'd be doing far better in the media, the polls and with his own party if he had referred to his free owl policy.0
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I suspect it's the latter.Financier said:Labour put health just above it and UKIP put immigration. Do Labour voters really believe this or are they just aping their recent party line?
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Stunningly bad wage growth figures.Richard_Nabavi said:Stunningly good employment figures.
20% annual wage growth for FTSE 100 chiefs
When does were all in it together kick in?
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It's not just the political parties: the national broadcaster is avoiding mentioning the latest allegations in Greater Manchester. It's a national scandal. Someone NEEDS to ask Cameron and Clegg what they've done about it on the campaign trail. A citizen if necessary if the journalists continue to fail to do their jobs.radsatser said:I would have thought it was self evident the likelyreason why.
Do we really think this issue is only likely to implicate Labour. We should be in no doubt that political correctness, multi-culturism and the unwillingness of all three parties to tackle issues that are unique to specific ethnic groups, has probably had jobsworths, and PC observant clones of all three parties turning a blind eye, which will inevitably come out if investigations are ramped up.
This smells like a a 7 month long grass hiding exercise to me. Get the GE out of the way, and then a rapid investigation in the first year of the next government, and then 4 years for the LibLabCon to say they have learnt the lesson, and for it to disappear back into the murky world of the ethnic misogynist sexual predators.
Or at least that is probably what they want to happen, we only need another town to do a Rotherham in the comings months, and politically the doo doo will hit the fan big time for all three parties.0 -
They are the most notable achievement of this government.Richard_Nabavi said:Stunningly good employment figures.
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This article is spot-on:BenM said:Again excellent unemployment figures. But below inflation wage rises. So no economic mojo.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11162272/If-Britain-is-booming-why-is-the-deficit-growing.html
Our economy can sustain only so much tax take. We choose to spend alot more than that. This cannot last.0 -
I'd delighted to see Eastbourne turn blue again :^ )
Handy that Weadlen next door is pretty safe from any ballot box insurgency - we can spend our time on the coast instead.Paul_Mid_Beds said:The fact that a over a quarter of the (8/30 seats) that could go UKIP according to the Guardian report are Libdem seats, suggests that my hunch that a lot of their voters voted Liberal for negative reasons (ie they are not the Tories) than any love of Libdems or their policies is right. With the Libdems in coalition with the Tories, those votes are now deeply in peril.
As well as those eight, I'm sure there are plenty of other rural Libdem seats where Libdem voters voting UKIP will hand the seats back to the Tories, even "Safe" seats like Yeovil which already had an above average UKIP vote of 4.1% in the 2010 election and where the Libdems came third with 9,736 well behind both Tories 14,526 and UKIP 16,786 in the South Somerset breakdown of the euro elections.
Based on that, it seems that the worst projections for Libdems in 2015 could come true. From the map I think these are the 8 libdem seats in the 30.
Eastbourne,
Somerton and Frome,
Torbay,
Eastleigh,
North Cornwall,
St Austell & Newquay,
St Ives
Chippenham.
Oh and Insomniacs FIRST!0 -
Not seen an episode of ‘Eastenders’ in over a decade, could never quite fathom out how so many unpleasant, dysfunctional human beings, exhibiting ever social problem of the day, could inhabit the same London square. - Has it changed much?
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If we go back to the [otherwise embarrassing] OBR June 2010 Budget forecast, then I think they are the one measure that has come out better than forecast. The forecast was that: "...the ILO unemployment rate falls toRichard_Nabavi said:Stunningly good employment figures.
6 per cent in 2015." [C20, page 82]
This is doubly impressive when you consider how the UK economy has underperformed expectations since 2010.0 -
Their wage growth was actually 2.5%.bigjohnowls said:
Stunningly bad wage growth figures.Richard_Nabavi said:Stunningly good employment figures.
20% annual wage growth for FTSE 100 chiefs
When does were all in it together kick in?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29587707
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The public are very good enforcers of no smoking policies. I recall the news story when an amorous couple had full sex on a crowded train, and no one intervened. However, when they lit up a cigarette after the act had been consummated...0
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Do you know the economic benefit/deficit when someone on JSA and presumably Council Tax Benefit etc move to Working Tax Credit. It is not something I have looked at and so am not sure when the employee or HMG benefits.Scott_P said:@christopherhope: Wow! Unemployment has seen the largest annual fall since records began over 40 years ago. Big boost for David Cameron ahead of #PMQs today.
0
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