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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP hit a record 18% from YouGov in the latest daily poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP hit a record 18% from YouGov in the latest daily poll
After the strong UKIP performances in the most recent Survation, Ashcrfot and ICM polls YouGov is reporting this morning that the party is on 18% – the highest ever figure from the firm.
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As well as those eight, I'm sure there are plenty of other rural Libdem seats where Libdem voters voting UKIP will hand the seats back to the Tories, even "Safe" seats like Yeovil which already had an above average UKIP vote of 4.1% in the 2010 election and where the Libdems came third with 9,736 well behind both Tories 14,526 and UKIP 16,786 in the South Somerset breakdown of the euro elections.
Based on that, it seems that the worst projections for Libdems in 2015 could come true. From the map I think these are the 8 libdem seats in the 30.
Eastbourne,
Somerton and Frome,
Torbay,
Eastleigh,
North Cornwall,
St Austell & Newquay,
St Ives
Chippenham.
Oh and Insomniacs FIRST!
Go look at the Ashcroft marginals polling. The latest batch showed a swing from 2010 of just 2% from the LDs to UKIP and in at least two of the seats that you list there's been a swing from CON to LD since the general election.
Lib Dem incumbency is far stronger than for other parties. Remember as well that voters are not asked to choose party leaders, parties but individuals to be their MP.
I am up at this time of night because our cat, which we have had for 15 years, is very poorly.
If I remember correctly, the results were that the Lib Dems "held" every seat which they had in 1997 north of the London-Bristol latitude, and lost every seat to the Conservative Party south of it (outside of London, I think).
Perhaps a similar thing could be done combining the 2010 GE and 2014 EP results - with the focus being on actual votes, not percentages.
I mentioned yesterday that the Clacton by-election was the key one this year - and now OGH has written a whole paragraph to contradict me.
Ho hum.
Some are more equal than others.
Germany to let France off paying penalties to Brussels for missing its budget targets.
France promises to reform but has its fingers crossed.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/10/14/20002-20141014ARTFIG00333-paris-et-berlin-s-entendent-pour-eteindre-la-crise-budgetaire.php
Bet that story will be popular in Greece, Ireland, Spain, & Italy amongst others. At least they haven't yet had their PM removed.
ie UKIP
(choc full of ex-Westminster coterie party members as it is)
The UKIP effect hits LAB most this time.
Labour's 2010 VI retention is at a year low of 76% (recently ~80%) and loses 11% to UKIP which is higher than their running average over the last month of 6.5%.
Also the economy matters most personally to Cons and LDs but Labour put health just above it and UKIP put immigration. Do Labour voters really believe this or are they just aping their recent party line?
Returning to the infamous subject of Scottish sub-samples, currently SNP are running at an average of 39.4 (31.8 just prior to IndyRef) and Labour at 28.3. (32.2)
Very down to earth, not a posh southerner (northern accent for a start!). Father ran a small business which was smothered by regulation under Blair/Brown and ended up failing. (No ideal if that is true, but it's what she says). Classic Thatcherite position on most issues, Working very hard.
I could see that she would appeal to a lot of potential UKIP voters.
What action is Home Secretary Theresa May taking against the South Yorkshire Police after the widespread reports of its collaboration with child rapists.
When is Childrens Minister Edward Timpson going to place Rotherham Childrens Services into 'special measures'.
What action is Policing Minister Mike Penning taking to ensure that the police's 'Day of Reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' takes place.
How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and what did she chose to do about it.
Why is Prime Minister David Cameron showing no interest in the issue despite his emphasis on 'Broken Britain' while Leader of the Opposition.
Indeed, Baxter's Electoral Calculus is currently redundant. I really hope he can produce a model that works but it would need to tailor every constituency and build in tactical voting re. UKIP e.g. Lab to UKIP. That would produce a Tory landslide. Some of the permutations if UKIP did poll highly are quite bizarre. However, I suspect strongly they won't do this in the GE. Perhaps 15% but I'm not holding my breath.
Letting France completely off conforming to apparently strong budget restraint is stupid economically (this happened with the rules to join the euro, and we know how well that's working), but even worse politically. Will Spain or Italy get the same leeway?
We should also remember that every by election poll for the past 2 years has overstated Labour's share, and 9 out of 10 Euro polls did. Something needs to account for that, and my current theory is 'shy non-Labour' who are core working man Labour voters who are secretly voting UKIP.
For all the excitement about this current phenomenon we still need to remember that 1. for most people the GE isn't on a list of 1000 matters they are thinking about and 2. when they spotlights are turned on next spring UKIP will rightly face a lot of glare.
p.s. sorry to hear about your dear old cat Mike and hope it gets better.
What a happy outcome. The cynic in me would wonder if this was planned and how long these MPs, particularly Carswell, have been chatting to Nigel. As a strategy it looks like it is working though.
IIRC, you were very critical about the SYP leaking the "Day of Reckoning" in advance.
edit: and can child service be put into "special measures"? (genuine question) I know the government had to introduce legislation to allow nhs trusts to be.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29623851
I especially enjoyed this line:
"In it he claims half of all adults in London are obese or overweight and the city now has more obese and overweight people than New York, Sydney, Sao Paolo, Madrid, Toronto and Paris."
Smoking is slimming. Lots of people who quit gain weight as a result.
Edited to correct a typo.
This deeper integration of the EZ is my single biggest concern about the future of the EU. It is inevitable that this bloc will start to agree between themselves how the EU budget might usefully be spent when times are hard and capital investment is required, what sort of regulation best suits them and how unsatisfactory all that rampant capitalism in London is. My expectation is that within the next decade, (probably not in 2017 because we will have a minority Labour administration) this is going to drive us out.
Mr. F, it's petty, vindictive, state-knows-best bullshit.
Personally, I think the ban on smoking in pubs and restaurants has been great. When you go abroad and see people lighting up as you try to eat it brings back how unpleasant it used to be. Objecting to smoking in public places seems to me to be swinging the pendulum a bit far though. That generally has a lot less impact on non smokers.
Just wanted to let people know the latest charities we've funded if anyone is interested in backing them or getting involved
Archway Project (www.archwayproject.org) - Training for young people referred by Youth Offending Schemes / Police to help give them qualifications and skills to avoid crime (London)
Covent Garden Dragon Hall (www.dragonhall.org.uk) - helping a youth centre in central London develop external income sources
Generation Rwanda (www.generationrwanda.org) - similar to the work we did with GROW in Uganda and Business Bridge in South Africa this programme is designed to teach young people the skills they need to set up and develop their own businesses
Bridge Community Education Centre (www.thebridgebrigton.com) funding the development of a new one-on-one adult literacy programme in East Brighton
http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/download/CCARprint.pdf
As usual, my political instincts were wrong. I assumed Ukip would peak in May at the Euros and drift slowly down to about 10% for the GE.
But all publicity seems to be good publicity this year. That, and a few grey swans like Rotherham and a couple of defections. Rotherham will either surface in time for the GE, or vanish from the MSM and be a running sore that Ukip can scratch.
Lucky beats competent so far, but if they can sort out their structure and policies. Ukip could be a player in the coalition games after the election.
But as that's my prediction, it's probably up there with Southam's usual reading of the tea leaves.
"They just ain't getting 14% anymore"
It's still true. Why don't you do it anymore @TGOHF?
Some think there has been no global warming for the past 18 years http://order-order.com/2014/10/01/there-has-been-no-global-warming-for-past-18-years/
I must admit to becoming more sceptical about the whole AGW religion.
It is not going to happen no matter what hue the government.
The options are In the EU or Out. This is the honest position.
People tend to grow up when it comes to the General Election. There's nothing quite like thinking about your salary / mortgage / rent to focus the mind away from trivia to the things which really matter.
15/10/2014 08:19
Voters want Farage in all TV debates and Greens to have a lookin. Exc You Gov poll for Times Red Box
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-10-14/itv-news-investigation-finds-hundreds-of-child-abusers-walking-free-in-manchester-due-to-police-failings/
The Greater Manchester PCC is a former Labour MP.
http://www.police.uk/greater-manchester/pcc/
http://www.gmpcc.org.uk
Oh Lord. That reminds me of that wonderful Series 1 Episode 2 of The Thick of It where Malcolm Tucker tries to get Abbot to watch Eastenders etc. because he's so out of touch.
You can't make this up. Miliband = Hugh Abbot argh
You can't make this up. Miliband = Hugh Abbot argh
Far better just to admit to not liking Eastenders than 'researching it' . Nick Palmer shows the way here, rather than pretend to be interested in football he just says he does not like it. Fair enough I respect that, even though I do like football. (Not Eastenders though)
Cable down to $1.59 as well which should help pump prices
Given I bought dollars at $1.70 a few months ago I'm think of trading back into sterling
The record of this government suggests it isn't.
IIRC the immediate response to the Rotherham report from Downing Street was a media statement saying 'lessons have been learnt'. The great euphemism for nothing will be done.
You don't have to go far from Rotherham to find a council which has had its childrens services placed into special measures. As, IIRC, it happened to Doncaster's in around 2010.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29618913
One candidate, one Scotland...
SNP don't seem to learn from the mistakes of others.
FTSE down 10% in a fortnight
Wages growth still behind inflation 0.9% despite inflation being 1.2%
Slit your wrist times on Bloomberg
You can't make this up. Miliband = Hugh Abbot argh
Miliband won't get a very accurate gauge of East London demographics from Eastenders.
I would say it is worse than midsomer murders in terms of representation of non white Brits and Eastern Europeans
Meanwhile in Chelsea the Glamburger is on the menu at £1700 (the worlds most expensive burger)
health care in Japan seems a fair bit less judgmental which I think is a good think. smokers treated like adults, not shamed for their habit.
The drop takes the unemployment rate to 6%, its lowest level since late 2008.
My neighbours son has just come off the unemployment register apparently he has been persuaded to go self employed.
what is his business you ask
He says nothing but I get 40p a week extra benefits.
Sounds crazy advice to me but i wonder how many others have done this.
Try banning smoking in vast public parks and you either have to create an expensive police state apparatus to enforce the law, or you will get people into the habit of breaking the law.
** Incidentally, this is one argument against raising the tax threshold so that a person on the minimum wage working full-time hours paid no income tax. At that level these people would not be in the tax system, and so it would be harder to enforce the minimum wage.
Catch a falling knife.
20% annual wage growth for FTSE 100 chiefs
When does were all in it together kick in?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11162272/If-Britain-is-booming-why-is-the-deficit-growing.html
Our economy can sustain only so much tax take. We choose to spend alot more than that. This cannot last.
Handy that Weadlen next door is pretty safe from any ballot box insurgency - we can spend our time on the coast instead.
6 per cent in 2015." [C20, page 82]
This is doubly impressive when you consider how the UK economy has underperformed expectations since 2010.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29587707