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Unhappy Valley – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    Andy_JS said:

    Although of course 1974 didn't give Labour a working majority for 4 or 5 years. The first election that year was a hung parliament, and the second gave them a tiny majority which only lasted for about 18 months due to by-election losses. After that they were reliant on the Liberals and the SNP. You have to go back to 1966 to find a Labour election victory with a working majority where the leader wasn't Tony Blair.
    In fairness to him, I think Brown can claim at least half of 2005.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    nico679 said:

    Apparently Johnson will swear on a Bible tomorrow .

    This isn’t normally part of giving evidence to these committees but clearly shows how desperate the fat lying oaf is to save his skin.

    That's a bit try hard from him. The problem is everyone knows he is much more untruthful than the average politician, and he's gotten a pass for that, and now he isn't he thinks if he promises really hard that he is being truthful this time it will be more convincing. It won't. He's angry that people are inclined to disbelieve him, but who's fault is that?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,126
    ...
    nico679 said:

    Apparently Johnson will swear on a Bible tomorrow .

    This isn’t normally part of giving evidence to these committees but clearly shows how desperate the fat lying oaf is to save his skin.

    Profanity or an affirmation?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    Horse_B said:

    Rishi Sunak's approval rating in the Red Wall is -21%, his second lowest rating in these seats as PM.

    Rishi Sunak Red Wall Net Approval Rating (19 March):

    Disapprove: 47% (+3)
    Approve: 26% (–)
    Net: -21% (-3)

    Changes +/- 5 March

    The polling is curious. The Tories are apparently going up in the Red Wall yet Sunak’s rankings here continue to sink.

    They like the recent focus on Braverman-esque stories, so give a better rating to the party even as they still don't like him?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    RobD said:

    He even has his own legislation about it:

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/2588/contents/made
    I can’t find the right email address to claim my own. Is there a long queue?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650
    nico679 said:

    Apparently Johnson will swear on a Bible tomorrow .

    This isn’t normally part of giving evidence to these committees but clearly shows how desperate the fat lying oaf is to save his skin.

    Which of the Ten Commandments will he be breaking this week?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    kle4 said:

    They like the recent focus on Braverman-esque stories, so give a better rating to the party even as they still don't like him?
    A binary question is also very different. 53% do not disapprove, which is entirely consistent with the 38% (?) Tory vote in those areas.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited March 2023

    Blimey, that's an unflattering photo the Telegraph have found. Interesting that their Back Boris story is fairly small print, tucked away on the edge of the front page.
    Not small print on the mail, and no doubt to about their verdict.



    Really hotting up now politics, so much going on. 🥵
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    kle4 said:

    Let's just go full Jonathan Wilde and have a top thief be a top thief taker. There's synergy there.
    "To protect the sheep you gotta catch the wolf, and it takes a wolf to catch a wolf."
    - Denzel Washington in "Training Day".
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,763
    Anybody interested in a cogent, objective article (by David Cowling) on why betting on a Labour majority at the next GE may be unwise need look no further than Labour List (much more objective than the Telegraph, anyway):

    https://labourlist.org/2023/03/labours-poll-lead-is-very-impressive-but-victory-remains-far-from-assured/
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Roger said:

    I'm sure HMRC allowed Starmer to make a unique deal to avoid tax. Try a different newspaper!
    Roger, I do read articles in a wide range of UK newspapers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    Which of the Ten Commandments will he be breaking this week?
    Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,278
    Horse_B said:

    Rishi Sunak's approval rating in the Red Wall is -21%, his second lowest rating in these seats as PM.

    Rishi Sunak Red Wall Net Approval Rating (19 March):

    Disapprove: 47% (+3)
    Approve: 26% (–)
    Net: -21% (-3)

    Changes +/- 5 March

    The polling is curious. The Tories are apparently going up in the Red Wall yet Sunak’s rankings here continue to sink.

    Two things interacting, I reckon. Compared with his predecessors, Sunak is calm and competent, and that's pulling up the Conservative party ratings a bit. But every newish PM starts off popular (blank slate you can project hopes onto) before getting less so as reality hits. It's true even for the effective, sucessful ones.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    edited March 2023

    "To protect the sheep you gotta catch the wolf, and it takes a wolf to catch a wolf."
    - Denzel Washington in "Training Day".
    Yeah, but people only say that sort of thing when they are actually justthugs who feel the need to disguise their hypocrisy by making it seem noble.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384
    RobD said:

    He even has his own legislation about it:

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/2588/contents/made
    I would be very surprised if Rishi chooses to introduce tax avoidance into his election campaign!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,278

    Not small print on the mail, and no doubt to about their verdict.



    Really hotting up now politics, so much going on. 🥵
    Though a really careless typo in the first word of that headline. They've missed out a "T" and jumbled the last few letters up as well.

    Sloppy editing.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Was this advice from his legal team because the vast majority of the public know he’s a pathological liar and using the Bible as some prop looks pretty awful even by his own low standards
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    Roger said:

    I would be very surprised if Rishi chooses to introduce tax avoidance into his election campaign!
    I don't think Sunak is doing anything, it's a story in the Telegraph.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,262
    RobD said:

    He even has his own legislation about it:

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/2588/contents/made
    Legislation introduced by a Tory government.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384

    Blimey, that's an unflattering photo the Telegraph have found. Interesting that their Back Boris story is fairly small print, tucked away on the edge of the front page.
    It might work if people thought he was a crooked tax avoider. They don't so as a story it 'll just reflect on the Telegraph
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited March 2023
    kle4 said:

    So what we're being told is that those supporting a proposal talk it up, and those opposed to it talk it down.

    Someone stop those presses right now.
    No. I’m saying it enters the phase now where everything that goes right wont ever get noticed or remarked on, but everything that goes wrong will fill newspaper front pages and Sunak will be attacked from behind him at PMQs.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332

    Legislation introduced by a Tory government.
    Working with the Tories to enrich himself? Tut tut.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750

    No. I’m saying it enters the phase now where everything that goes right wont ever get noticed or remarked on, but everything that goes wrong will fill newspaper front pages and Sunak will be attacked from behind him at PMQs.
    Not so sure. I think the deal is calibrated (and the EU/Ireland willing to play ball) such that day to day issues will fall away. Anything esoteric might be need in Stormont (should there be one) but not in Westminster.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    edited March 2023
    RobD said:

    Working with the Tories to enrich himself? Tut tut.
    “Vote Tory - we even made the Labour leader richer”.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    biggles said:

    Not so sure. I think the deal is calibrated (and the EU/Ireland willing to play ball) such that day to day issues will fall away. Anything esoteric might be need in Stormont (should there be one) but not in Westminster.
    We’ll see 😁
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,655
    linto said:

    Rival investigators would lead to some horrendous problems, just look at the US where forces actively target and over police poor and vulnerable parts of society as their income is directly funded by the fines and money recovered.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/31/us/police-ticket-quotas-money-funding.html
    I do think a properly reasoned reform pitch would work, there's been enough cut through for many to recognise something needs doing. It's just a shame the current lot seem more interested in dinghy's and cheap headlines than difficult but necessary legwork to make reforms work.


    A bit of overpolicing sounds good to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    edited March 2023
    nico679 said:

    Apparently Johnson will swear on a Bible tomorrow .

    This isn’t normally part of giving evidence to these committees but clearly shows how desperate the fat lying oaf is to save his skin.

    Why is that a surprise? We all know Boris is a devout Roman Catholic (in the confession box at least)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    RobD said:

    He even has his own legislation about it:

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/2588/contents/made
    It is pretty hilarious he has his own statutory instrument. Has anyone gone so far as to have an Act named after them?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Is it really worth staying at the Hilton just so you can stay at the Hilton? I find them anodyne. Not cheap, but not interesting either.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    kle4 said:

    It is pretty hilarious he has his own statutory instrument. Has anyone gone so far as to have an Act named after them?
    Didn’t they used to have to pass one for every divorce?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,691
    ydoethur said:

    It's remarkable that Blair was the only Labour leader born since the end of the first repeat First World War to win a majority at a general election.

    Admittedly there have only been three.

    “Born in the last hundred years” is more impactful
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,956
    Pretty devastating indictment of Nicola Sturgeon by a very well kent and pro-indy commentator.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-has-destroyed-her-own-reputation/

    "I don’t know about voter’s remorse but there was precious little remorse from Nicola Sturgeon on Loose Women on Monday for the chaos she inflicted on her party by resigning in pique without giving it a chance to organise an orderly transition. She showed all the insouciance of a teenager who had just wrecked the family car. Nothing to do with me – it’s really your fault for giving me the keys."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    HYUFD said:

    Why is that a surprise? We all know Boris is a devout Roman Catholic (in the confession box at least)
    If it is not usual for people to swear on a holy book when giving evidence (and that appears to be the case from a light google - even formally making them swear to tell the truth appears to be atypical) then his doing so is just theatrics. Indeed, it being unusual may make his doing do highlight that he (or they) think he can only be trusted to tell the truth if he swears on a holy book, which actually paints him in a bad light.

    Most people are truthful even when they are not under oath.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    kle4 said:

    It is pretty hilarious he has his own statutory instrument. Has anyone gone so far as to have an Act named after them?
    The Keir Starmer Platinum Enrichment Fund.

    Meanwhile, in better news of leadership and caring for working class people from the Express


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    Pretty devastating indictment of Nicola Sturgeon by a very well kent and pro-indy commentator.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-has-destroyed-her-own-reputation/

    "I don’t know about voter’s remorse but there was precious little remorse from Nicola Sturgeon on Loose Women on Monday for the chaos she inflicted on her party by resigning in pique without giving it a chance to organise an orderly transition. She showed all the insouciance of a teenager who had just wrecked the family car. Nothing to do with me – it’s really your fault for giving me the keys."

    It sounded better when Pericles said it:

    If you were persuaded by me to go to war because you thought I had the qualities necessary for leadership at least moderately more than other men, it is not right that I should now be blamed for doing wrong.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384
    biggles said:

    “Vote Tory - we even made the Labour leader richer”.
    Wow! That's catchy
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Roger said:

    I would be very surprised if Rishi chooses to introduce tax avoidance into his election campaign!
    Indeed. Some very weird posts tonight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    biggles said:

    Didn’t they used to have to pass one for every divorce?
    Good catch!

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/private-lives/relationships/collections1/from-the-parliamentary-collections-divorce/addisoncampbell-divorce/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,148

    Is it really worth staying at the Hilton just so you can stay at the Hilton? I find them anodyne. Not cheap, but not interesting either.

    What's your opinion on Hotel Indigo?

    Do you know which hotels have the largest baths?

    What hotel would you most recommend?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    kle4 said:

    Good catch!

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/private-lives/relationships/collections1/from-the-parliamentary-collections-divorce/addisoncampbell-divorce/
    “Sorry, I know I said I’d get it done in time for you to remarry at Easter but we’re stuck behind the third reading of the Finance Act”.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    Roger said:

    Wow! That's catchy
    So much goes over your head it must feel like you live under a flight path.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    What's your opinion on Hotel Indigo?

    Do you know which hotels have the largest baths?

    What hotel would you most recommend?
    And

    Have you ever been to the Hotel California?

    Is it true you saw Lenny Henry in a Premier Inn?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,444
    edited March 2023
    Mostly, I agree, save for the last.

    The RUC got put to the sword for being too good at fighting the face-eating leopards.

    The PSNI is more accommodating towards face-eating leopards, as the Belfast Agreement requires them to be.

    In a normal society, John Caldwell would be considered an outstanding detective. In Northern Ireland, he went after people he was supposed to leave alone.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    Sean_F said:

    Mostly, I agree, save for the last.

    The RUC got put to the sword for being too good at fighting the face-eating leopards.

    The PSNI is more accommodating towards face-eating leopards, as the Belfast Agreement requires them to be.

    Yes, the RUC was disbanded as a gesture (like taking down the watch towers). Not quite the same thing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited March 2023

    "To protect the sheep you gotta catch the wolf, and it takes a wolf to catch a wolf."
    - Denzel Washington in "Training Day".
    Once you kill a cow, you gotta make a burger - Lady Gaga
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384
    edited March 2023

    Indeed. Some very weird posts tonight.
    The Tories on here have been buoyed by a poll showing the Tories on -10 having fluctuated in two weeks from -16 to -23. We haven't seen movements like that since they gave respondents clapometers
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    Pretty devastating indictment of Nicola Sturgeon by a very well kent and pro-indy commentator.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-has-destroyed-her-own-reputation/

    "I don’t know about voter’s remorse but there was precious little remorse from Nicola Sturgeon on Loose Women on Monday for the chaos she inflicted on her party by resigning in pique without giving it a chance to organise an orderly transition. She showed all the insouciance of a teenager who had just wrecked the family car. Nothing to do with me – it’s really your fault for giving me the keys."

    Ouch!
    "Transition planning does not just mean trying to bounce your favourite mediocrity into the top slot to make you look good. It means giving the party time and space to reflect and to organise a leadership contest that attracts all the talents in the party and gives them time to fashion a new agenda for the future. It does not mean saying, in effect, ‘I’m outta here, bye suckers."
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-has-destroyed-her-own-reputation/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    The telegraph actually. Plus a steady drip of remarkable poll movements in Sunak’s rating and Tories cutting into Labours lead.


    Hypocrite Nailed 🤤

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64972143
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,425
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,444
    Nigelb said:
    Blimey!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    edited March 2023
    Nigelb said:
    And the social divide between the Western world and Africa and the Middle East gets even bigger
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    Pretty devastating indictment of Nicola Sturgeon by a very well kent and pro-indy commentator.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-has-destroyed-her-own-reputation/

    "I don’t know about voter’s remorse but there was precious little remorse from Nicola Sturgeon on Loose Women on Monday for the chaos she inflicted on her party by resigning in pique without giving it a chance to organise an orderly transition. She showed all the insouciance of a teenager who had just wrecked the family car. Nothing to do with me – it’s really your fault for giving me the keys."

    This is also worth a read. Stephen Daisley - Don’t rush for tickets on Nicola Sturgeon’s farewell tour
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/dont-rush-for-tickets-on-nicola-sturgeons-farewell-tour/

    One prediction, I simple do not believe that Nicola Sturgeon is going to give up her chauffeur driven ministerial car and quietly retire to the SNP backbenches at Holyrood for the next three years. So its now not a case of if she will stand down as an MSP, but simple when she will announce her intention to do so in the coming months.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Nigelb said:
    That is horrific.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    And the social divide between the Western world and Africa and the Middle East gets even bigger
    387 out of 389 lawmakers voted for it according to the report.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2023
    Contemporary Ugandan attitudes towards homosexuality are heavily influenced by the legacy of Kabaka Mwanga and the events at Namuwongo, in the 1880’s.

    It’s one of the key founding myths of the (otherwise improbable) Ugandan nation.

    Very little journalism covering the story shows any understanding of this.

    They’ve taken our bullshit colonialism and run with it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,444
    ping said:

    Contemporary Ugandan attitudes towards homosexuality are heavily influenced by the legacy of Kabaka Mwanga in the 1880’s.

    It’s one of the key Ugandan founding myths.

    Very little journalism covering the story shows any understanding of this.

    They’ve taken our bullshit colonialism and run with it.

    It’s more of a reaction against colonialism.

    France abolished laws against gay sex in 1791, so, it was never a crime in the French Empire. But most former French colonies made it so, after independence.

    Most former British colonies made the laws more stringent.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2023
    Sean_F said:

    It’s more of a reaction against colonialism.

    France abolished laws against gay sex in 1791, so, it was never a crime in the French Empire. But most former French colonies made it so, after independence.

    Most former British colonies made the laws more stringent.
    Not in Uganda’s case. What happened at Namugongo - or, more accurately, the myth about what happened at Namugongo - is crucial to understanding why homophobia resonates so strongly in contemporary Ugandan society.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,751

    Is it really worth staying at the Hilton just so you can stay at the Hilton? I find them anodyne. Not cheap, but not interesting either.

    I stayed at a Hilton once. It was neither expensive nor uninteresting. It was in the Beetham Tower in Manchester. Few finer views from a building in England. I felt obliged to sleep with the curtains open.
    I have no recollection of anything about the inside of a hotel; apart from the view it didn't strike me as qualitatively different from a Premier Inn. (Nothing wrong with a Premier Inn, in my book.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    "How TikTok broke social media

    Whether or not it is banned, the app has forced its rivals to adopt a less lucrative model"

    https://www.economist.com/business/2023/03/21/how-tiktok-broke-social-media
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,418
    Roger said:

    The Tories on here have been buoyed by a poll showing the Tories on -10 having fluctuated in two weeks from -16 to -23. We haven't seen movements like that since they gave respondents clapometers
    "Remember, folks! The clap-o-meter is just for fun!"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,418

    Blimey, that's an unflattering photo the Telegraph have found. Interesting that their Back Boris story is fairly small print, tucked away on the edge of the front page.
    Who ate all the pies?

    Or maybe, curries?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ping said:

    Contemporary Ugandan attitudes towards homosexuality are heavily influenced by the legacy of Kabaka Mwanga and the events at Namuwongo, in the 1880’s.

    It’s one of the key founding myths of the (otherwise improbable) Ugandan nation.

    Very little journalism covering the story shows any understanding of this.

    They’ve taken our bullshit colonialism and run with it.

    I was waiting for the first one to blame us for this vote...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,024
    New thread.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,256
    edited March 2023
    Seeing people defend Keir 'Statutory instrument' Starmer over this is hilarious.

    Man of the people, indeed!

    Although to be fair, this is perhaps the most exciting story about him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,129
    Sean_F said:

    It’s more of a reaction against colonialism.

    France abolished laws against gay sex in 1791, so, it was never a crime in the French Empire. But most former French colonies made it so, after independence.

    Most former British colonies made the laws more stringent.
    It will still be our fault, somehow.
This discussion has been closed.